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EUVC Podcast Episode Notes: E494 | This Week in European Tech with Dan, Mads & Lomax
Episode Overview In this episode of the EUVC podcast, co-hosts Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen from SuperSeed, alongside Lomax from Outsized Ventures, discuss various macro forces and micro signals shaping European technology and venture capital. Key topics include cybersecurity, energy fragility in Europe, developments in AI and automation, and the capital gap within the European startup ecosystem.
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Key Topics Discussed
- Cybersecurity: A Growing Boardroom Concern
- Risks and Statistics:
- 43% of UK businesses experienced cybercrime in the past year.
- Global average cyberattacks rose by 47%, reaching 2000 attacks per week.
- Investments in Cybersecurity:
- Companies are increasingly investing in cybersecurity defenses.
- Darktrace's acquisition at 34x EBITDA highlights the growing interest.
- Energy Systems Fragility in Europe
- Iberian Blackouts:
- Discussed the fragility of Europe’s energy systems, particularly in the Iberian Peninsula.
- Nuclear Energy Issues:
- Nuclear projects like Sizewell C face significant delays and cost issues.
- Renewable Energy Debates:
- High costs associated with nuclear energy versus solar and wind.
- Innovation in AI and Automation
- UK’s AI Action Plan:
- The UK government plans to invest £2B into AI, focusing on infrastructure and supercomputing.
- AI’s Impact on Business:
- Companies are adapting to AI, but there’s a need for greater bravery in investment and deployment.
- Emerging Trends:
- The rise of companies like Tesla and their impacts on transportation through autonomous vehicles.
- The significance of the Wave-Uber partnership for automated driving in the UK.
- Europe's Capital Gap
- Discussion on Funding:
- Debate on whether the capital gap is due to a lack of funding or fundamental business issues.
- Startup Resilience:
- The need for startups to adapt and showcase resilience in the face of economic challenges.
- OpenAI and Startup Viability
- OpenAI's Margins:
- Insights into OpenAI's financial performance and implications for startups.
- Comparative Analysis:
- Discussion on the differences in startup DNA between Europe and the US, evaluating who is better positioned for success.
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Key Takeaways
- Cyber Preparedness is Critical: Cybersecurity is becoming a top priority for businesses, with substantial financial impacts being reported.
- Energy Transition Challenges: Europe faces significant challenges in its energy systems, with nuclear energy being a contentious topic due to high costs and delays.
- AI is Transformative but Requires Investment: The UK’s investment in AI infrastructure is essential to remain competitive globally; however, practical execution and accountability remain key.
- Capital Access is Vital for Growth: The ongoing capital gap in Europe raises questions about the fundamental viability of startups and their growth potential.
- Market Dynamics are Shifting: The performance of public versus private markets is undergoing significant changes, reflecting broader economic trends.
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Final Thoughts The discussion highlighted the complexities and interdependencies within the European tech and venture capital landscape. The co-hosts emphasized the importance of strategic investments, the need for heightened cybersecurity measures, and the imperative for European startups to enhance their resilience and growth strategies in an increasingly competitive global environment. The episode concluded with reflections on broader societal issues, underscoring the human element behind technological advancements and market dynamics.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Welcome to Upside, where we dig into the real stories that live behind the headlines affecting European venture. Today, it's Mads, Lomax, and myself. Sadly, no Andrew. He's had a family emergency, had to run off. And today, we're talking about AI and cyber, what's happening there. There's lots to discuss about the government, funding, spending, spending reviews, investing in AI. So we're going to dig into a lot of that. Energy, again, but there are some big plans afoot. We've got a size, we'll see. We've got small nuclear reactors, so there's some stuff on energy. Tesla's RoboTax. Yeah, my goodness.
0:34Yes, Tesla's finally launching their autonomous driving. 996, founder work ethic, a really tricky topic to discuss, but we're going to dig into that. Some AI up to the right growth. We're looking at Cursor. Open AI's hit 10 billion, so we're going to talk about that. And some private markets versus public markets. There's some big news in private versus publics. But where are we going to start? We're going to start right at the top. We're going to talk about AI and cyber.
1:16This show is not investment advice and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured. Now, it doesn't feel like a day goes by without there being a new cyber attack in the news. M &S last month here in the UK, personal data of millions of customers compromised in a dragon force. aka Scattered Spider Breach. United Natural Foods in the USA saw an 8 % share price drop when their supply chain was recently disrupted by a cyber attack. Just for context, UNFI serves 30 ,000 stores across the US and AT &T saw 86 million affected users by an alleged Russian cyber attack.
1:54What does this mean for business? What does this mean for us as startup investors? What does this all going to piece together. Lomax, can you give us some background and your take? So, yeah, I think it's well documented and you give good examples of where cyber is having real world impacts and the numbers just keep going up and to the right. So 43%. It feels like there's more, right? It feels like we're seeing a lot more. Anecdotally, and that's also borne out in the data, right? So 43 % of UK businesses suffered cyber crime in the past year. So nearly half of all businesses. And then the global average attacks per organization climbed 47 percent and now at 2 000 attacks per week in q1 2025.
2:34so i think there's no doubt that this is going in in one direction why is this happening i think a lot of the sort of ai enabled tools um ai makes it easier to launch such attacks and more efficient um at scale um i think we still have we're still adapting to hybrid remote teams which gives you know, for the companies that are running at remote systems, that gives them vulnerabilities. And also, I just think that the cyber attackers are moving faster than the businesses can put defenses in place. So I just think that many businesses are insufficiently prepared for this. So examples such as what you gave, the data show that this is becoming a real business risk.
3:17In fact, one of perhaps the biggest business risks out there at the moment. And anecdotally, spending time with a business owner the other day out here for the weekend, a sort of 100 million top line business, just consumer facing the biggest threat that they face is cyber. That's where they're investing a lot of their free cash flow and upskilling and upgrading all of their systems. So it's a big, big thing. So cyber, at least from a business perspective, real business risk, from a investment perspective, very interesting. And maybe Darktrace, which as we all we talked about, was recently bought a very high 34x multiple EBITDA multiple by Toma Bravo.
3:57Maybe it's starting to look cheap now, potentially. So what's going on? What else is going on? Where are the opportunities? How should we think about this? Well, two things I think are kind of two vectors that I think are relevant. One is this is opening a new vector of attack on our modern Western society to a degree we haven't been used to in the past. It used to be sovereign states fighting sovereign states. And because these attacks are now taking the proportion they have, it's almost like either non-state actors or state-sponsored actors in rogue regimes are attacking the fabric and the integrity of our societies in ways that were unheard of in the past.
4:45You look at, as Lomax said, United Natural Foods serving 30 ,000 stores. That's massive. It's empty shelves. It's something that in the past you would have associated with a pandemic or a war. And it's sort of happening, I wouldn't say under the radar because it is headline news, but to some extent we're making it sound like it's something that's happening a little bit out there in cyberspace, but it's having very real impact on the day-to-day economy. It also, it feels like we get, they appear in the news cycle, but we kind of dismiss it. It's almost such a constant drumbeat that you don't really pay much attention to these cyber attacks, I think.
5:25I think it raises new questions for what constitutes warfare in the 21st century and how we should respond. So that's one thing. Another thing is that United Natural Food shares fell sharply last week before the attack happened. So you have, I think, some very sophisticated, nefarious actors that not only know how to attack the specific companies and get a ransom out of them, but also know how to leverage the financial system, for example, by shorting shares to get a double benefit. So this is not some unwashed teenager sitting at home in a kitchen playing around. This is sophisticated stuff. And it sort of begs the question, how should we respond?
6:17And obviously we have kind of sophisticated cyber defences, but the question is whether they are enough. Well, and the other kind of follow-on question I had for you is, are we going to see less kinetics? Are we going to see less trad warfare? Because obviously we're all looking at defence spend, buying subs and boosting troop numbers. Is this the real new front? Sadly, I think it's going to be a combination. If only we could replace kinetic warfare with cyber, we could say, okay, well, the shelves might be empty for a day or two, but nobody's going to starve to death. But I think you'll see a combination and we won't be able to take our eyes off one just to concentrate on the other.
6:59We have a new front effectively. We've got to man it permanently. Well, I think we've perhaps had this front for a while, but there's a front on both the business industrial side and then there's in warfare, right? And if we move to more autonomous systems within warfare so drones automated vehicles etc then clearly this becomes a major major issue but then also on the you know company industrial level this is this the front is the stakes are even higher now i mean reflecting on the spanish portuguese iberian electricity blackout which we're not saying was um a cyber attack in fact it wasn't but easily if you are able using cybercrime to take out these systems, you paralyze economies.
7:39To take the example, let's say you had a headline saying, Russia bombs food distribution depot, leaves 30 ,000 stores empty. Yeah. Now compare that to the reaction you get from this. Yeah. Okay. So people are saying there are no human casualties. Fine. But if that was a power outage that led to hospitals stopping to function, you might not get off as likely. I think that's one of the, if you think about like old economy businesses, which are a big time affected, you know, M &S and food supply chain companies. I think that's one of the problems with cyber because it is a very abstract, it's a very abstract concept.
8:26so actually at the board level to think about these threats historically has been quite hard and therefore you know to kind of put the systems in place i think now you see more and more of these real world consequences of it i think that will make people wake up and smell the coffees and and put the put the infrastructure in place to try to defend these but this is all unfortunately cyber is one of the ones where the the nefarious actors always seem to be one step ahead of the of the defenders. It is cat in my house, isn't it? Yeah. And also, there are so many different flavors. There's ransomware attacks, where it's just a purely financial gain.
8:59There's Mads' point of there's state actors not only making money, but also really messing with their enemies. There's all kinds of reasons for it. And this is sort of the point I'm making, perhaps not very well, which is I think there's a third zone. So the actors here likely originate from either North Korea or Russia. And you're not going to tell me for five minutes that the local authorities couldn't find them if they tried. Yeah. Right? And so that's what I mean. It's almost like we have opened a new front, which is, it's more than a cold front because it has real world implications. It's like a new form of warfare.
9:45But Mads, we're not going to see this massive pivot in startup and investing land like we saw from blockchain to AI. We're not going to see that from AI to defense, although maybe they're interconnected. Maybe obviously blockchain AI, fairly separate tech stacks and thinking, but we're not going to see a massive swathe of defense and cyber sec startups from this, are we? I think some people would argue that immutable ledgers and AI are foundational technologies if we want to create a more resilient infrastructure i don't think it's it's exclusive but guys also you know cyber security as an investment category for in within venture has been a pretty sizable category over the last 15 years i mean what was the biggest what was the biggest exit in q1 right 33 billion whiz no like so biggest ever wasn't it biggest ever yeah sure exactly so i um this is not some new thing you You know, it will become, the market size will grow and it will continue to be a place where if you're a founder, there are massive opportunities.
10:53And if you're an early stage investor, there are huge opportunities. No, I think the new thing is it's reaching a scale where it's no longer just a business concern. I think this is a national security concern. Yes, for sure. Well, let's talk about government spending because governments are spending more on tech and AI. There's been a spending review. There's been lots of announcements from government on investment in infrastructure and AI. Just for some context, UK private investments into AI were 20 times lower than the US. And Jensen Huang gave Starmer a bit of a dressing down at the lack of investment in AI infrastructure if we really want to see the UK as a leading powerhouse.
11:36However, we are seeing more local investment. Plus, there's new programs to encourage foreign direct investment into the UK. And like I said, it's not all winning. So the economy shrank, inflation hasn't been tamed, and we're seeing more job losses. So lots of announcements, Lomax, lots of good, not so good. Give us some background and your take on what's happening here. So this week, we had Rachel Reeves on Wednesday announce her spending review. So just to remember, every year she does a budget, which sets the annual spending and tax take. This is the spending review, which actually is much more important.
12:11This focus on a three to four year lens set spending parameters for that. So this is actually a much more important fiscal event than a budget, which is very interesting. And I would say the backdrop, as you alluded to, Dan, was not so good. The UK economy contracted 0.3 % in April and 109 ,000 jobs were lost, which is the biggest monthly job loss since COVID. 250 ,000 jobs have now been lost since the last budget. And the 109 ,000 jobs happened in May, which is the month after the April national security and national insurance social security payments were increased, something we've discussed on this pod before.
12:49So the backdrop was not great for Rachel Reeves. Let's put it that way. However, the optimist in me says there's some really good things in this spending review. The big winners actually were tech, science and the NHS. Maybe let's park the NHS for the moment and look at what's been unlocked on the infrastructure and technology side. So big picture,$120 billion of spending in kind of critical infrastructure over the next three years, including you know 40 43 billion into science and science and innovation and technology this is a this is a big win the ai opportunities plan which has been outlined um before has now been fully funded at 2 billion so i think that's very very interesting good that she's allocated the resources to that including i would say learning lessons about a third of that 2 billion AI investment is a 750 million supercomputer in Edinburgh.
13:48This actually was cancelled back in August last year by Rachel Reeves. And this was seen as, and we talked about it on this pod, as an example of where they're not investing in the right areas. Now, let's back on the table. It's back on the table. It's actually, the 750 million is included in this 2 billion of spending on AI. So it's a big component of that. And I sort of dug into this a little bit. And I think that's interesting because if you look at so matt clifford formerly of entrepreneur first works you know now as an chairman of aria he laid out or led this this ai plan that the government has and a core pillar of that is increasing you know increasing by 20 times the compute infrastructure that we have in this country and actually this supercomputer is a large component of that so um it sits sits firmly within that within that policy and i think it's great to see i think it's 50 times more powerful than the current largest sort of research focused supercomputer that we have in the UK at the moment called Archer 2.
14:50So that's really, really good. Clearly at the macro level, the government is going to need to borrow a lot of money to fund this. In fact, all of this investment is not coming through tax increases, she says at the moment. Well, she hasn't said no, has she? She hasn't said no, but she's deferred it. But it basically means another 140 billion of debt chucked onto the national debt, which at the last check, I think was 90%. The GDP to debt ratio was 96%. So this will push it into the 100 % plus category. And when you look at the growth numbers, we just talked about where the economy is heading. That will obviously, low growth means lower tax take, which means lower ability to service your debt.
15:31There's a risk of a kind of death spiral that you could get into, but that's perhaps not. But somebody's got to be brave, right? Because this is going to go beyond potentially Labour's tenure. Somebody's got to be brave because there's a massive period of inertia, isn't there, between investment and return? And I think I'm just, you know, just pick out a quote from from Rachel Reeves, which is this, which is, I have made my choices in place of chaos. I choose stability in place of decline. I choose investments in place of pensions, division and defeatism. I choose national renewal. we will fight them on the beaches but i think in a way this is her being brave and pinning her colors to the mast and it's a much better direction to take things we were sitting here in the last six months crying for investment which we did not see in the you know the autumn budget last year and now we're seeing investment and we're seeing it in the right area and this thing does take time to filter through there is a sort of backdrop to this which is that a lot of western economies have which is the aging population that we have and i think the ft have worked out that by 2029 49 of government spending will be on health and social care this in my view is a major crisis like we're moving to a major proportion of our national budget being focused on these areas which is not innovation, R &D, growth, et cetera.
16:55But this is the point, isn't it? Because this is somewhere where startups are also and investors are scared to play, right? Yeah, they are. And actually, interestingly, on the health side, there's been 10 billion allocated across these three years to digitalize the NHS. I mean, whatever the hell that actually means, but still there's an acknowledgement of marrying these two problems. It's like invest in technology to actually solve one of the big secular problems that we have. On that, I'll shut up, but I'm broadly as optimistic as I can be, despite the very negative backdrop that we have, and also the relatively poor start that we had in terms of investing in the areas that we care about.
17:36I like that she's being brave. Mads, what would you add? No, I think you're spot on. I think the$2 billion for the UK AI action plan is good. I think money to invest in making our healthcare system more efficient is good. What I'm missing there is the bravery to say, okay, so here are where the efficiencies are going to be. Because what you're saying is essentially right. The budget is not sustainable. Money we are spending on things like healthcare just keep growing and growing and growing with worse outcomes. And in fact, we are delivering less today in the NHS with more money than we did in 2019.
18:13It just can't be true. And so I would have liked to see some of the bravery actually be saying, okay, here's a five-year plan. We're going to give you some money to invest, but we expect efficiency on the other end. And we expect that five years from now, with all that new technology, you'll be able to deliver more with less, not less with more, to free up resources for all the other things that need resources that are underinvested. Taking a step back from healthcare for a minute and just coming back to AI. So I think, you know, what Jensen Wang said was wonderful. He sort of said, you know, this is a Goldilocks moment for the UK.
18:47You have perfect talent, you have investment, you have government support. You just need the infrastructure to execute and then you have the government coming up with£2 billion and that's wonderful. NVIDIA also had the announcement around the UK AI lab, which sounds very cool. At the same time, NVIDIA has also announced that they're going to put half a billion dollars into creating an industrial AI cloud, kind of an AI factory in Germany. So there's a little bit of a contrast here, which is that it seems that we're getting some nice words in the UK and this sort of slightly ephemeral AI research center, but Germany is getting real money to build an AI factory, which of course is what we need.
19:29And if you compare the announcement here around the two billion with what we've seen, Project Stockade in the US, Project Stockade in the UAE, where it's you know, an order, two orders of magnitude, more money going into building compute and compute capacity, it seems that we still have some ways to go. And so I hope we can move from sort of the slightly old fashioned, we'll make our five or 10 year plans, we'll allocate some money, we'll hope good things happen to much more proactive. Let's go and find the deals. Let's find the movers and the shakers like an NVIDIA, like other partners we can find globally to attract capital and do deals now to bring in the investment we need to really get things moving.
20:10Because otherwise, Dan, as you're saying, you know, if we're taking our sweet time on this, Reeves and everybody else will run out of time before the parliament is over. And once again, we won't have really moved the needle. And that's a little bit my concern is the speed we're moving now, that it may be too little too late. Well, I mean, at least they're making moves. I hope it's not PR. I hope there's real, it feels like there's real forward motion. And I also hope because we focus on it, we're not happy ears, listening for the things that you want to hear. But it does feel like there's many more positive investment announcements from government and then leading into the private sectors.
20:48And one of those is in energy. Now, obviously, we talk about this a lot. We need energy. We need it to be cheap. And that's not just for AI, but AI is certainly going to be a massive driver of this requirement. Nuclear is back on the table. We're seeing Sizewell C, a 14 billion pound pledge to kick off Sizewell C in the UK, although that is a 10 year off plan, assuming all things go well. Rolls-Royce has won the UK government backing to build the first, the country's first small modular nuclear reactor. And in the States, just flicking over to see what Meta's doing in Mexico. They're now looking at geothermal as an energy source and then piping that back into the States.
21:30So energy's massively on the table for all of us. There are obviously opportunities for startups, investors, activity in general. Lomax, what should we focus on and where? I think setting the backdrop here, which we have discussed before, but I think it's worth just rehearsing this you know the uk and and our peers in in europe have the highest cost of industrial energy in the world like it's staggering you know like i think the cost of industrial energy per our latest report is six times that of the us so this is very very shocking we also have problems around sovereignty on your energy supply if a lot of your electricity is being generated by gas gas fired power stations, then the gas is generally something that you're importing.
22:23And we've seen that from places like Russia, that when you have these global macro shocks that the gas prices go up and you're very, very dependent on that. So you have a sovereignty issue, you have a price issue, and then there's also the cleanliness issue, right? Funnily enough, nuclear and i'd love to get your take on this from my understanding nuclear solves two of those issues not three okay so nuclear gives you long-term baseload as opposed to intermittent which we have with solar and wind so long-term baseload a plant will last for 40 60 years and like clean so clean power consistent power and also gives you sovereignty over your power gives you control over it right because you know by definition it's on your shores and you don't have to rely on imports for it however and i i was shocked by this having spent a bit more time on this the the cost of nuclear energy is the most expensive energy out there like you know is it yes so it doesn't solve and and the reason why this is relevant in the court in the context of technology obviously is you know with the energy for data centers and if ai needs electricity is hungry for it could potentially be up to 30 40 percent of electricity use in the in western economies over the next five six years so it's a huge huge problem so if you want to use more ai to drive more efficiency within your economy if the cost of that is prohibitive that is clearly going to be a massive rate limiter on that so the i thought the small the small modular reactors and there's a lot of new tech going now into france remember that uk startup the move to france to build these nucleo nucleo yeah i don't yeah i actually i don't know what the cost but i don't know what the cost per megawatt hours but also these smrs the small modular reactors are very very small so they're not really needle moving you know there's this this concept of the level light the lcoe right the levelized cost of electricity which basically takes the different because you know you have you know a nuclear plant once you've got it up and running will last for 60 years so you have the upfront cost like hinky point c in in somerset is potentially going to cost 35 billion.
24:34So you have a huge upfront cost. And then you cause to mortise that over the time of the life of the plant. But the cost of the electricity coming out of that is roughly going to be 150 pounds per megawatt hour versus 50 pounds per megawatt hour for solar and wind. So actually, these big nuclear plants solve your energy sovereignty and future planning, et cetera, but they do not solve the cost of electricity. And so that is just something to bear in mind. I think it's great we're investing it for reasons I've just said, but let's just not lose perspective and sight of that. SMRs, I think, these small modular reactors will probably yield or offer a lower megawatt price per megawatt hour.
25:16I'd love to know what that actually is. But I do think we should just bear that in mind. Look, we've had decades of chronic underinvestment in our energy infrastructure. And we then wake up suddenly and say, gosh, there's a gap, we need to invest and we choose an absolutely gargantuan project that, right, the biggest project one can imagine, not having done this for decades. And lo and behold, it ends up costing twice as much as comparable designs in France, four times as much as nuclear designs in Korea that are well-functioning today. And so it begs the question, could this have been done a lot cheaper?
25:54And instead of sort of a 30-year stop-start cycle, we've been building smaller plants along the way. I'd positive it probably could. Second point is that a lot of times energy is priced not on the average cost, but on the marginal cost. And it turns out that when you have unsteady energy supply and you rely a lot on renewables, and renewables are wonderful, you have to fire things up and down all the time. And that can be really expensive if you have to go back to, for example, gas plants and fire gas plants up all the time to deliver marginal capacity. So I think there's just a lot that can be done to make the energy strategy and policy more coherent and less stop-start.
26:37Can I just ask a question just to clarify that? Go ahead. Because I think this marginal cost is something that's underappreciated. That basically means, as far as I understand it, is that if you're drawing electricity from a number of different sources, so wind, solar, nuclear, coal fired, gas fired, when they set the price for it in whatever periods they set the price, like hourly, 24 hourly, they actually choose the highest cost of all of those modalities, right? And that then sets the price, as far as I understand it, which means you're actually selling nuclear or you're selling wind by reference to the gas fired price, which is obviously very dependent on the gas prices, which have gone up a lot.
27:19That's exactly right. That's exactly right. So, yes, we need more stability. And I don't think we can choose just one of these energy sources. I think nuclear is wonderful as a baseload. It's a lot less polluting than coal. We just can't build one plant every 30 years and expect economics of scale. So I think what we need to do now is to say, okay, we've gone all in on this. Let's double down on it. Let's, instead of thinking about one mega project, can we then fold this into another two, three, four, five projects to get more capacity to scale this up? If there are any new inventions here, can we bring them to the wider world?
27:54Can we make more of it than just a one-off that ends up being a really, really expensive science project? But it's financial, isn't it? I mean, it's money, isn't it? If they've committed to this, is there enough free float to then go and commit to the projects. Well, Rachel Reeves, fiscal rules, it's investment is not counted. She's looking at the net debt. Of course. So the SMRs can cost, I think, roughly 2 billion per project rather than 35, these potential blank checks that you have with these big nuclear facilities. So I think they've only approved, I think, one in this spending review. You would have thought that they could approve a series more and roll them out much more quickly and in a much more adaptable versatile manner.
28:36I mean, it will require lots of forward thinking and flexibility on planning, et cetera, et cetera. But you could have thought that that's a sort of lower piece of hanging fruit. And we can talk about the moonshot nuclear fusion type things, but I mean, that could be 2040, 2045. I mean - Always 20 years off, baby. It always, it's like quantum is 10 and like nuclear fusion is 20. It feels like, but it's Good to see. I'm sure you read that Proxima Fusion, a nuclear fusion company in Germany, raised a big 130 million dollar series, 130 euro series A this week, which is a big announcement, which is great to see.
29:12Nice. We've had some incredible advances in fusion over the past year alone. We've had 22 minutes of sustained plasma energy generation out of the Tokamak west in france earlier this year there's just so much happening and yes 20 years but if it's 20 years to you know sustainable limitless energy i mean that's it's not so far away is it it'll probably take 20 years to complete hinkley c yeah size or size or c i wonder what the levelized cost of electricity is actually for nuclear fusion the lcoe right the numbers i just gave about you know 150 for nuclear and then you know 50 for solar and wind i mean the kid there's a lot of analysis that needs to go into that and assumptions based on the cost of actually building a plant, etc., etc.
29:55But it'll be interesting to see that. Yeah, I think we're all fairly bullish insofar as we think that energy will be solved within our life cycle. I think that's where we will kind of sit. But let's move on to Elon's Tesla's robo-taxi. Self-driving is here, apparently. Mads, what's happening? Well, Tesla was meant to launch the robo-taxi services in Austin yesterday on the 12th of June. And initially, we're just kind of planning on rolling out 10 to 20 Model Ys. They've been seen driving around Austin driverless, but the start of the robot taxi service itself has now been delayed to the 22nd. Now, on one hand, of course, this is revolutionary.
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30:37Tesla's got the world's largest fleet of potentially self-driving capable cars. They've got a massive data advantage of scoping up data from cameras everywhere. So this could become a big, big thing. And there's the context around the cost. So Waymo, which in many ways have been ahead, it costs$180 ,000 to build one of their cars due to the high cost of the LiDARs and the sensors they use, whereas the Tesla car is only$40 ,000. So much, much cheaper. But the reality at the same time is that Waymo has been ahead. They're doing more than a quarter million paid trips per week already. And so Tesla is desperate to catch up, and they're hoping to launch ASAP.
31:22And some might say, is the fact that they now are pushing, pushing, pushing, is it a desperate sort of, you know, we're trying to shortcut on safety? Is it sort of a standard Elon Musk playbook here? You can compare to what Waymo did. They had six months with safety drivers and six months without them before they launched, whereas Tesla is looking for just a few weeks. Well, Elon needs some good news, right? He needs some good PR. He does need some good news. But listen, when you take a step back from all the personal and emotional excitement and everything else, this is a big deal. Tesla, Robotax, is a car that can drive itself around a city costing less than$40 ,000.
32:06It can revolutionize how the world works. Coming to Europe, Lomax, what's happening? How will this affect us over here? Yeah, I totally agree. I think this is a massive deal. And I think very on brand for Elon, the whole Tesla rollout will have a little bit of like, you know, move fast and break things. And the PR will be a bit messier than Waymo, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, as Matt says, the Tesla cars, because they're just using cameras as opposed to the more expensive LiDAR, et cetera, which the Waymo cars use, they're about a quarter of the cost. And Elon actually thinks, I mean, I think at the beginning, they'll price around similar to Waymo.
32:43so around a dollar a dollar a mile there'll be a booking fee of five six dollars i think but if you know elon predicts that you can potentially get the cost down to 20 30 cents a mile which is just insane imagine getting so i think this is a huge huge deal and imagine what that can unlock in terms of people people's commutes like new jobs they could potentially take like how this can affect people at the individual level i think it's fascinating and so i'm but i do wonder one thing i wonder how many in the fleet or how many owners private owners in the fleet will let their car be used potentially in such a way that that's the thing is i get the self-driving tactic piece fine fine fine i always wonder how the network is going to work i think it's b2b i think you have fleet owners you know people do it as a business rather than individuals just like renting out their cars is that what you're saying so you don't you don't think you don't think it'll be like a like a car share service maybe i actually think i think that will just slow things down i mean it's interesting but i think the main thing will be people rolling out commercial fleets of these things you europe you asked about europe i think this is interesting we've just had some some more news where with this um with wave in the uk which has now inked its second partnership so as a reminder wave doesn't actually roll out its own cars it's a pure software company uh they've now having signed a deal with nissan which we talked about six weeks ago have now inked a deal with Uber and WebEye Waves, Embodied AI will launch with Uber in spring 2026, which is a year earlier than planned.
34:17Shock horror. And interestingly, I don't think any of us are big Brexiteers here, but this automated driving has been an area where there is a bit of a Brexit dividend because the UK is now moving a lot faster than the EU in the context of AVs, right? So this trial between Wave and Uber will be level four, like the highest level of autonomy and automated driving. So that will be on the streets of the UK next year. The EU is stuck on level two or three, is weighed down by the lowest common denominator country, which I think, according to Elon Musk, is the Netherlands at the moment, which for some reason is slowing things down.
34:57so you know the context here is that China and the US are way ahead in the in the rollout of automated vehicles UK and EU need to catch up the UK is actually seems to be doing something about it the EU is is uh stuck in without wishing to you know excuse the pun in first gear
35:22oh god you are a dad so dad jokes are allowed it's fine it's fine mads any more to any more to close off on on tesla and self-driving and taxis and fleets no i think you're right i think wave is europe's hope on the automotive front and i hope they can pull it off and if it's a brexit dividend that ends up creating the bedrock for the software company that becomes the autonomous DNA for kind of for saving Europe's automotive industry and making sure we can compete, then, you know, that would be a, you know, funny, funny twist of fate. Or we leave that to BYD and just convert all our plants to building subs and tanks and missiles.
36:05Maybe that's where we'll end up. Well, this is another thing that creates risk, you know, talking about cyber risk, you know, if the whole of your mobility infrastructure in a city is relying on AVs. Like that's another map that creates a whole new like category of risk, right? Yeah. Yeah. Because if you get somebody hacking into the Tesla network and just flicking your car off mid-journey or whatever, however disruption they're going to do. But anyway, we're going to see, I guess we'll see more as we're more interconnected. Standstill. Yeah. Yeah. But you're touching on something that's super central there.
36:35And there was the whole discussion around whether the Americans could switch off our F-35s. Yeah. Right. I mean, think about this. I mean, one thing is a cyber attack. But if Europe becomes populated only by automotive automotives built in China, what does that do to our security posture? Yeah. Blimey. Well, I want to talk about another cheery topic. So it's come around again, this whole how hard should founders work, this whole 996 narrative. so I don't I kind of I kind of don't want to talk about it because it's you know founder salaries founder work ethics how hard should founder works there is obviously a very strong venture theme here where it's a lot of VCs that have been talking about this and it's been picked up and it's kind of it's kind of hit the airwaves again Lomax where where would you start if if anywhere if you're up for it?
37:34There's been a lot of like polemic and a lot of strongly worded and minded pieces put out in the last week off the back of this LinkedIn post that Harry Stebbings made about, you know, founders need to work seven days a week. I, you know, I just have a kind of relatively simplistic view of this, which is so it's specific to each founder. They do what they need to do. We live in a bubble, which is the venture backed founders. There's tons of entrepreneurs who don't take venture and build fascinating, wonderful businesses that don't take venture money and don't need to get to hundreds of millions of revenue, right?
38:08That's never the plan from the outset. But if you are in this small world of trying to grow big, big, big companies, I'm afraid there is no real substitute for intense hard work and focus. And you look at this slightly artificial concept of trying to force this growth onto a small organization and take it from say zero to 300 400 500 million or a billion of revenue within seven to eight years there is no substitute for elbow grease i'm afraid and you know we look at companies like revolu they're not created in the european context without an insane amount of hard work so i think it's up to them i'm not telling anyone what to do i just know that yeah but this is this is the difficulty isn't it because we're sat on this side of the desk as vcs how very dare we but i think there is a there is a reality not how very dare we we're just like guys you know you don't have to take our money you do what you want venture capital is is an expensive piece of capital if you want to take it it has its demands and and guys we know that also So in order to attract money into venture capital, you need to show a risk adjusted or like a return that is competitive with other asset classes.
39:27Right. So for that to happen, you need these multi given the high failure rate, which is not going to change anytime soon. You need these big, big outcomes. Right. And those big outcomes, I'm afraid, come with they're not going to come with nine to five work. I really don't think they will. I also think there's like so anyway, I think it's like it's up to the founders. I think this stuff does require an insane amount of work. And there's often no substitute for that. I would want to just to maybe touch on this, a quote from Paul Graham, which I find very interesting because I think it depends on the age and experience of the founder, right?
39:59And I think just before handing over to Mads on this, this is what Paul Graham wrote. So use the advantages of youth when you have time and the advantages of age once you have those. the advantages of youth are energy time optimism and freedom the advantages of age are knowledge efficient efficiency money and power with effort you can acquire some of the latter when young and keep some of the former when old so you know when you're young you have a lot of time you could probably work seven days a week quite frankly and not burn out when you're old you have the benefit of wisdom and age and you can cut some corners and you know you need some more time to reflect and don't need to spend you know you can probably work smarter rather than harder but horses for courses everyone is on their own journey i do think though if you want to build a company of 50 billion in market cap you've got to work freaking hard and much harder than me and most people out there you need to work in the top 0.1 percent of people on this planet yeah it's dedication right mads do you want to wade in yeah i mean so how i've seen the discussion being painted as people are saying, look, the reason Europe is sometimes seen as behind is because there's a lot less capital.
41:13Just give us more money. That'll help us hire more people. We can build bigger teams instead of working like maniacs. And the only reason why Europe is not producing more great outcomes, because there are some, right? There are companies that are amazing. The only reason there aren't more is just because there's a capital gap. I think the really inconvenient truth here is there can be a bit of truth on both sides. So yes, we need more capital, but Lomax, as you say, there is also a widespread misunderstanding of what it takes to win in a globally competitive marketplace. I think Revolut proves the point.
41:48People are talking about a toxic work culture, but it turns out that this is actually one of the very few companies that have been able to compete. and what NACA has created there is a company that is absolutely peerless globally or at least one of the very, very few that are right at the top in their category. So that is what it takes if we want to compete at that level. And this is not about kind of 12-hour face time at the office. It's not about having to be there all the time. That's not the point. The point is, if you want to be on the top of the Olympic podium, you have to have an Olympic-level commitment to winning.
42:26There is no other way. And it is whatever it takes. And yes, part of that is bloody hard work. And so that's just the way it is. You can't holiday your way to trillion-dollar companies. If we want to compete with China and the U.S., if we want Europe to remain a kind of a rich and an affluent region with great companies that are competing globally, we've got to work hard. We can't rest on our laurels. And that's just the way it is. I always fear having this conversation as VCs. I always fear having this conversation. However, I think those founders that truly understand venture capital, speed of sale, speed of scale, global stuff.
43:07I think they get it. I think they want it. I don't think this is news to them to be obsessed with their thing they're building or the problem they're solving 24 seven. I just don't I don't think that's I don't think for those. Those is a challenge. You know those founders and you see them and you work with them and you know how passionate they are. And that's why you can believe and we can believe that they have a shot. It's no guarantee. Even with money and hard work, you might still not win. But it's an entry ticket that gives you a shot at that dream of building a globally competitive business that can be number one in its space, a category leader.
43:43And for many people, that won't mean anything. And for some, it is the only thing that matters. And I think if that's what you have, if you want to have that Olympic level, you know, a victory, you really want to be number one, you know what it takes. I always tell founders just to know the beast. Interesting quote from one of the partners, A16Z, in the context of Enysphere, the company behind Cursor, who last week said, I read in an article in The Information, I haven't seen people working this hard since the first internet boom. So read into that what you like. but and this is actually where that harry stebbings linkedin post came from because i listened to the show where he was chatting about it was they were basically saying if you go to san francisco at the moment one of the americans on the pod was explaining it's it's on fire at the moment with people just working the whole time now again some of that i'm sure is inefficient etc etc but the people you know we know what san francisco and silicon valley has produced in the last 15 years We know what it's producing at the moment.
44:41We can see, I mean, open AI at 10 billion ARR, right? So to do those kind of extraordinary, extraordinary things requires a Herculean effort. And Dan, importantly, you shouldn't worry about this, man. It's not for everyone. So it doesn't matter. Tons of entrepreneurs on LinkedIn for whom this is irrelevant and they should ignore it. They shouldn't comment on it. They should just get back to doing what they're doing. So I think I'm with you. I'm with you. I think what the challenge that I have is that I don't believe that many founders truly understand the expectations around venture capital. And I think that many founders look at it as a natural evolution from bootstrapping to angeling.
45:22And then I'm just going to go and raise venture. It feels like a linear. There's no divine right to venture capital, quite frankly. And also, you're right. It's actually when you think it's not this is not some just like source of funding to help grow your company. like in a sort of linear fashion it's actually a very weird instrument that is demanding that you grow and like something that actually is incredibly artificial when you think about it in a in a in a company in a company journey so yeah i think there is a bit of a kind of understanding mismatch maybe i mean one thing that is a bit is a bit tedious is people being extremely prescriptive i think a lot of that's just clickbait you know there's some people are just like trying to cut yes and it's an emotional it's an emotional hook isn't it whenever i talk about and i don't mind having really difficult conversations whenever i talk about founder salaries or venture capital or venture growth or what you know the expectations on founders who actually take vc money it is it's an emotional it's an emotional hook and some of the tech press is very good at playing that playing that emotion but we were talking about cursor in any sphere and obviously as you mentioned open and they have surpassed 10 billion ARR this week.
46:29So there's a lot of AI companies doing crazy up to the right stuff. Looks incredible. Can it be sustained? Where are the lines and boxes? What's coming to Europe? How is this transferring over the pond? Mads, do you want to start with this one? Yeah, sure. I mean, some people have said, oh, gosh, look at those ARR multiples. Aren't they outlandish? But I think that's not the real story here. The real story here is that companies are doubling revenue every two months, which is just unprecedented in business history. And, you know, you gave the example of Cursor, Innisfair, which is the company behind, right, at 500 million of ARR.
47:06I mean, it's just nuts that you can double every eight weeks. We've not had quite as many of those mega amazing stories in Europe. We do have the Lovable from Sweden, and they've just hit 61 million of ARR in June. I think that's fantastic, right? Because they're up from 17 million in just three months. So it's kind of a three and a half X growth. And they've had this path they've gone on and shown that we can build incredible companies here. Now, Lovable is still only sort of a tenth the size of Cursor, but they are definitely doing something right. Some people have asked, why aren't we seeing more European AI companies share their numbers the way we see from the U.S.?
47:47And of course, it's just because they're just not growing as fast, except outliers like Lovable. And that does, I think, in many ways, point to the thing we talked about above. If we want to be number one globally, we've got to work at least as hard. We also need the capital, but we need to work hard. There's just no other way if you want to win. Lomax, is it all good revenue? I think we don't know because we just get the high-level numbers, right? So I think we're still learning about the P &L profile of these companies, right? What the gross margin looks like. This is not necessarily the traditional gross margin that you would see in a pure cloud SaaS company, for example, right?
48:27So I think people are still learning about that. I think OpenAI have actually put out a gross margin number that I think is much healthier than we were expecting, which I think they put out recently. It was roughly 45%. Oh, I thought they were losing still. No, 45 % was the gross margin that was quoted. There'll be a net loss surely at the EBITDA level, but at the gross margin level, I think 48 % gross margin is the last I've come across. You know, I mean, actually, these kind of more Videcody type companies like Cursor actually, and I think, and Winsurf were both reading an article where four investors were quoted as saying that actually they are negative at the gross margin level, which obviously is potentially very concerning because how the hell do these companies actually become profitable and make money?
49:19Now, clearly, I think the cost will go down for them over time as the technology gets more proliferated and commoditized. So that probably is heading in the right direction. Curso has been valued at 10 billion now. So clearly, investors see something heading in the right direction there. You know, we do have questions over what's the churn look like? with some of these customers, some of these, I mean, I'm not churning from ChatGPT anytime, you know, OpenAI's products anytime soon, but what does the switch off rate look like, the churn look like? I think TBC, still very early. Because don't forget that at some point, someone is going to have to run a discounted cashflow model on these companies, right?
50:00You know, at some point, people are going to have to look at the cashflow generation or cashflow generation potential. I mean, that's ultimately how you value companies, right? so I think you know that all we can't just forget about that we need to be building to something to some level of profitability the only thing that's interesting is you know the developers who are using for example you know cursor or the users of cursor are they you know going to switch when something you know better comes along and I don't think it necessarily needs to be 10x better or 10x cheaper but and actually the christoph jans the founder of point nine i read an interesting article that he put out basically saying you know these developers are much more flighty they're not like lawyers or consultants or kind of people who are slower to switch once they've actually made the purchasing decision so that's exactly right will the will competition as it rises start to eat the lunch of these companies so i think all of that is tbc at the moment the ar numbers are really heading in a great direction.
51:04And, you know, I don't think there's anything to be worried about. I'm sure they're doing what every company does, which is they're cherry picking what they absolutely need on the ARR side. But I mean, you know, most investors will be able to DD their way through that. Interesting times and still a lot to learn though. We are, don't forget for all these big numbers and all the excitement, we're still learning. We're still building the building the train as we roll down the tracks. And a lot of this stuff is still very much at the foundational level, at the core level of AI. And there's still so much to do as these cursor-esque and other application layer organizations roll into business.
51:43And no doubt, by the way, no doubt we'll see casualties. We'll be sitting here in two years' time and a few of these companies would have gone up in smoke. But that's literally how venture capital works. So, you know. Bring it on. It's part of the course. Well, let's talk more about private markets. Let's talk more about VC. we have some fairly historic news where VC and private markets have always been high performers, but no more according to the latest data. In the US, for the first time in 25 years, private markets have fared worse than Publix across all metrics. So what's the real story here?
52:15How is this going to affect us? What's happening in venture and startup land, if anything? Mads, what's your take? Well, you're absolutely right. In the headline, it looks like, why would anybody in their right mind bother with private markets? You can go to the public markets, you can buy a tracker, it's completely liquid, you can sell it day to day if you want, and you've had better returns. So it does sort of, at a surface level, look like we're all going to work with X on our faces. Why are we wasting our time with all this hot stuff? And we could just sit at the Bloomberg terminal. Of course, the story behind that is that it's mainly Magnificent 7 driven.
52:51They've driven 61 % of the S &P 500 returns. It's been a very concentrated tech dominance. First, it was just because, you know, mobile and cloud was amazing. And then AI came along and that's amazing. And so kind of these seven companies have really won there. And at the same time, on the piece, especially on that kind of private capital, the buyout firms have been struggling because they are leading targets, right? They've done a lot of the low-hanging fruits in terms of, you know, buying and shaping up and shipping off. And so it's been hard for them to, first of all, go into a higher interest rate environment, meaning that deals have to be leveraged by out companies.
53:29A firm will put some capital in, but a lot of it is leveraged. So you'll borrow a lot of money to fund the acquisition, and then you'll try to turn that company, make it more profitable before you sell it. Interest rates have been going up. That's not helping. That means the valuations go down. It means it's more costly to finance the debt. So you've had the kind of all the headwinds from that. And then you've also had an eroding stock of companies to buy because many of the low-hanging fruits have been done. And on the venture side, you've had the post-ZERP bubble. You had the ZERP bubble in 2020, 2021, 2022.
54:04You've had that overhang. And that's just really depressed returns. So you have a sort of a confluence of two things happening at the same time. I think under the covers, the best managers still outperform. The easy money era is over, but we fully expect that venture will start to shine again, especially with the AI boom. And I think there is a real opportunity in private market valuations because the publics have become expensive in many ways when you look at these tech companies. So, yes, startups may look expensive also, but you look at some of these growth rates that we're seeing. The growth rates are unprecedented.
54:43The TAM is unprecedented. And I think the best GPs will not only survive, but they will thrive. But the mediocre ones will face extinction. So there's going to be a shakeout here, no doubt. Shaky, shaky. But also, we can't ignore the fact that where we are in this innovation bucket, this is where all the magic happens. This is what's going to create the next wave of IPOs and magic mag-7 companies that are going to then hold up public markets in another 20 years. You know, absolutely. I think what's new here for the first time, the incumbents didn't just take it lying down, right? I mean, so Google, NVIDIA is not a young company, right?
55:22All these incumbents were ready and they've been readier than ever before. And so this is part of why I think so much of the initial value has accrued there. But I agree with you, next wave, you're going to see startups eat into that lunch. Yeah, you have to be in it to win it, right? You've got to meet luck halfway. I think Mads has summarized it incredibly well, but I would just make the point that I think this is pretty seismic in terms of the news, right? I just think across this, this is a report by State Street tracking on the private side, private equity, private debt and VC. And just taking last year, those assets as a cohort were up 7 % versus the S &P 500 at 25%, right?
56:06So the difference is staggering. and then this report tracks performance over a one-year, three-year, five-year and 10-year horizon and this is the first time as you said that on all of those measures publics are outperforming privates and as Mad said publics are liquid you can sell them whenever you want private you could be locked up for 10 years you know so it's like you need to add not only does the you know the private equity needs to have a illiquidity eventually discount applied to it so I think it shows that we in the private markets have a have a lot of work to do all of the reasons i think matters mads has covered very very well you know private equity had very low interest rates they dealt they bought and sold and squeezed the squeezed the life out of the you know low-hanging fruit companies and a lot of the value creation has taken place in in in ai within within the um within the public markets this time but this will change no doubt um look at what's going on in space you know huge amount of value being accrued in the private markets only in ai also a lot of these companies are still private in the intersection of technology and biology these kind of next generation technologies i mean nuclear fusion we talked about that's all obviously private markets so quantum there are listed players but that's largely private i think that that will drive the next wave and so be interesting to see how these reports look going forwards but i think it's a bit of a wake-up call for our industry and for us.
57:35When we're pitching our own funds, the investors, they're like, well, hang on a second. Why am I going to commit to a 10-year lock-up when I can go and buy QQQ? Well, we talked about this before. QQQ is the NASDAQ tracker or NASDAQ composite or S &P 500. So we need to earn our fees and earn our illiquidity premium, I guess. That's it. Well, watch how it all shakes out. I think let's talk about some of those deals. So there's a bunch of deals of the week. Mads, what's on your list? I'll just pick one here and we'll start with Multiverse, which is a Spanish startup that has just raised 189 million euros.
58:18And why have they done that? Well, let's go back to Lomax's point from before. Some of these AI companies are running with negative gross margins because the stuff they buy, the tokens they buy from the big cloud providers are really expensive. Well, Multiverse, what they specialize in is algorithms that can compress large language models by up to 95%, making them smaller while still maintaining their accuracy. It sounds like magic, and it may just be. Many, many interesting things about this deal. Let me first talk a little bit about what they do. So they use something called quantum-inspired algorithms to compact these large language models.
58:58And for those who are mathematically inclined, an AI model is sort of a set of weights and biases in a massive matrix. So imagine a huge, huge, huge matrix full of numbers that give you some weights and biases telling the AI model what it should do when it sees certain text. I put in certain text, it'll convert that, it'll process that through the matrix, and now it'll spit some text at the other end. And the question, of course, is, well, if you could take that matrix and make it smaller and more efficient while still spitting the same thing out, wouldn't that be marvelous? And that is exactly what multiverse computing is doing.
59:35They're borrowing some mathematic principles from quantum computing, but it isn't quantum computing they're using. It is traditional computing. That's why it works today. So there's a real mathematical breakthrough Through here, I think they've filed more than 100 patents. They're working with a bunch of customers. And it's actually interesting to see Europe is taking sort of a bit of an efficiency play here to Silicon Valley's bigger is better. It's a European syndicate. It was led by Bullhound, which is a UK investor. Could this help address some of the AI sovereignty? Could this be sort of Europe's deep seek answer?
1:00:13Who knows? That might be too early to say. In terms of the specifics of the company, so they're still early, about 20 million of euro or so now, as far as I know from last year. I don't think they're doubling every two months, but they only launched their platform a few years ago. So it's still very early stage. I think it's exciting validation for European deep tech in the AI space. And it shows that, you know, while we may not be leading, there's certainly some very, very exciting tech here that's marching forward. I wonder what that will mean for compute. I wonder if there will be those efficiency gains like DeepSeek punched everyone in the face a year or so ago.
1:00:51Lomax, what's on your list? I just checked my CRM. I did pass on that company. Oh, don't. Passed on Elvis. Shit. Yeah, yeah. But you know, at least I saw it because this company came out of San Sebastian in Spain. So it's like, well, you know, part of my job is seeing companies as an investor. So at least I saw it. Did you guys see it? No. but I guess I met the founder I met the founder in Barcelona I it was too late for us um so at least I saw it at there's a question of as a VC you often ask did I see the deal and did I see it at the right stage because anyone could see it at series B or whatever actually I did see it at the right stage for various reasons didn't invest because I think one of the one of the questions clearly I was I was impressed by them looking at my notes but one of the questions you always ask in Europe particularly for these kind of deep tech companies is are these guys people are going to be able to raise the kind of money they need and that's a major major constraint that we have in europe for um at that time you know pre-commercial deep tech companies however great that they've done it so good for them and i feel fine it's part of my job i should be missing out on some of these opportunities just because i just need one or two right at least you saw it correct iron q a big listed uh u.s quantum company has acquired a um oxford-based quantum company for just over a billion dollars it's all largely stock but it's liquid stock it's iron q stock a little bit of cash bought oxford ionics so oxford ionics um is a spin-out from university of oxford working on trapped iron architecture um quantum computing which is also the architecture the imq which itself is a spin out from duke university interesting i mean i think it's a it's a big exit in european terms the north of a billion billion dollars like congrats to the to the investors i think the last the last round they raised was a large seed or small series a so i'm sure the markup is very very good for those who invested but you know you there's grounds for optimism and pessimism here there's like oh great this is a good exit and don't forget we used to talk about the 300 the 400 the 500 mil exits remember when deep mind exited everyone was like woohoo this is amazing you know this is 2x that so at least the expectations um have shifted but still at the same time it's disappointing that actually we have a company that is probably selling too early in its journey and we look at iron q which is a similar age to oxford ionics this company and iron q is now valued i think with a market cap of roughly 10 billion dollars in the us right so suddenly you know hang on a second it technologically i don't think it's 10 times ahead of oxford ionics but it's man it did iron q actually spacked in the spack bubble it's one of the few few companies that spacked that actually is you know a bit of success so good for them so at exit north of a billion dollars we should all be happy about that but at the same time there's always leaving that that feeling of well what what could it have been you know let's not forget Europe has been the birthplace of a lot of very interesting core quantum technology, right?
1:03:51So CyQuantum, one of the biggest companies that is now in the US that came out of the University of Bristol. So I think you've got Universal Quantum in Sussex. You've got some very, very interesting quantum companies coming out of Europe, but there's always the funding question. It's exciting stuff. It's exciting. There's money changing hands in the UK. Well, you need exits and in the US you've got 33 billion for Wiz and we get 1 billion for a quantum company that's kind of but that's kind of where europe is it's just playing catch-up it's it's many cycles behind the us that's a good fight where's where's an israeli company ah yeah you're right yeah but very us dna company no i mean not dna of the founders right but very very us kind of centric company before we go i just want to send condolences to anyone affected by the Air India crash.
1:04:42It's hideous seeing things like that. There's a lot of hideousness going on in the news cycle. A big, special condolences to anybody affected by those horrific incidences. Gentlemen, a pleasure and a gift. I will catch up with you fine people next week. Bye-bye. See you then. Have a good weekend. Bye.
1:05:11It's more than just an alliance. This is a union of values. Let's start acting.
From the publisher
Welcome to a new episode of the EUVC podcast, where Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen of SuperSeed and Lomax from Outsized Ventures gather to unpack the macro forces and micro signals shaping European tech and venture.
This week, the trio dive into:
- Why cyber preparedness is a growing boardroom concern
- The overlooked fragility of Europe's energy systems
- How automation, AI, and policy are colliding in the UK
- Europe's capital gap—and the uncomfortable truth behind it
- Plus: OpenAI margins, startup resilience, and robotaxis in London
Here’s what’s covered:
- 02:00 Cybercrime as a Macro Risk: Are We Sleepwalking into Crisis?
- 06:10 Iberian Blackouts & Energy Fragility
- 09:00 Immutable Ledgers, AI & Infrastructure Resilience
- 11:15 UK’s £2B AI Action Plan: Where’s the Real Bravery?
- 14:20 Nuclear Woes: The True Cost of Delay
- 17:40 Marginal Cost Pricing & the Renewable Conundrum
- 20:30 Tesla’s Robotaxi Vision & a $40K Price Tag
- 22:00 Wave x Uber Deal: Level 4 Autonomy Comes to the UK
- 24:00 Brexit’s AV Dividend? The UK Races Ahead of the EU
- 26:30 Europe’s Capital Gap: Funding or Fundamentals?
- 29:00 OpenAI’s Gross Margins & Startup Implications
- 31:30 Incumbents Strike Back: Why Big Tech Moved Faster
- 34:00 Startup Opportunity in the Next Wave of AI
- 35:40 European vs. US Startup DNA: Who’s Built to Win?
- 37:30 Final Thoughts & Condolences on Global Tragedies




