E679 | This Week in European Tech with Dan, Mads & Lomax

12 Jan 2026 · 1 h 4 min · 30 chapters

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In short

Podcast Summary: EUVC - E679 | This Week in European Tech with Dan, Mads & Lomax

Episode Overview In this episode of EUVC, co-hosted by Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, and Lomax Ward, the discussion ranges from various tech trends to geopolitical issues impacting Europe and beyond. The conversation kicks off with lighter topics before diving deep into the intersections of technology, venture capital, and political dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Power Dynamics: A central theme of the episode is understanding who holds power in various contexts, particularly in technology and geopolitics.
  • Cautious Optimism: The hosts express a tempered optimism about the future of tech and venture capital, highlighting ongoing challenges and potential breakthroughs.

Key Discussions and Highlights

  1. Health-Focused ChatGPT Launch
  2. Overview: OpenAI released a health-specific version of ChatGPT, emphasizing enhanced data encryption.
  3. Concerns: Caution is advised regarding its usage, especially in the European context where the launch is not available yet.
  1. FDA Deregulation of AI Medical Devices
  2. Key Point: The FDA's announcement to streamline regulations for AI medical devices signifies a shift towards faster approvals.
  3. Impact: This could disrupt companies that have previously invested heavily in navigating complex regulatory frameworks.
  1. Geopolitical Concerns: Trump and Greenland
  2. Discussion Focus: Trump's longstanding interest in Greenland is viewed through the lens of European sovereignty and military strategy.
  3. Implications: The hosts debate the ramifications of U.S. military interests in Greenland and its historical significance.
  1. Social Media Regulation in Europe
  2. France's Proposal: France aims to ban social media usage for individuals under 15, sparking discussions on the contrasting regulatory landscapes of Europe and the U.S.
  3. Cultural Impact: The hosts reflect on youth behavior trends regarding social media and potential implications for tech companies.
  1. Corporate Acquisitions and IPOs
  2. Meta Acquires Manus: Meta’s purchase of Manus highlights its strategy to enhance its AI capabilities.
  3. Octopus Energy's Kraken Spin-Out: Discussion on the valuation and potential of Kraken, a hidden champion in the energy sector.
  4. Discord IPO: Anticipation around Discord's potential IPO as it approaches $1 billion annual recurring revenue.
  1. UK Pension Fund Performance
  2. Underperformance: There is significant criticism of UK pension funds regarding their low returns, especially in the context of rising inflation.
  3. Call for Change: The need for more aggressive investment strategies in private markets is emphasized to improve returns for pension beneficiaries.
  1. Nvidia and Physical AI Innovations
  2. CES Announcements: Nvidia's focus on physical AI and its partnerships highlight the ongoing evolution in the tech landscape.
  3. Concerns about Competition: Discussion on competition from AMD and the challenges Nvidia faces in the software sector.
  1. Psychedelics in Biotechnology
  2. Emerging Trends: Companies in the psychedelics space, like Bright Minds and Compass Pathways, are gaining traction with promising clinical trials and FDA approvals.
  3. Market Growth Potential: The hosts express optimism for continued innovation in mental health treatments.

Deals of the Week

  • Faculty's Acquisition by Accenture: A UK AI company is acquired for $1 billion, reflecting the growing value of AI expertise in traditional consulting firms.
  • Biographica's Funding Announcement: The biotech startup raises $8 million to develop next-generation crops, focusing on sustainability and resilience against climate change.

Conclusion This episode of EUVC provides a rich tapestry of discussions connecting technology, venture capital, and geopolitical shifts in Europe and beyond. The hosts navigate complex topics with insight, offering listeners a deeper understanding of the current landscape and future opportunities in European tech.

Follow EUVC For more insights and updates on European venture capital, follow the podcast at [eu.vc](https://eu.vc).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Exploring AI in Healthcare

0:45 to 2:56

Discussion about OpenAI's health-specific ChatGPT and its implications.

“So we haven't had a chance to try it out.”

FDA's Regulatory Changes for AI

2:56 to 5:49

Overview of the FDA's new regulations for AI in healthcare and implications.

“The FDA in the US has announced a couple of things that I think are very, very interesting from the point of view of the application of AI to healthcare, both in hospitals and consumer.”

Impact of AI on Decision-Making in Medicine

5:49 to 8:32

How multiple AI models can enhance medical decision-making and second opinions.

“And it can be really useful because it seems that if you've got two doctors, you have three opinions, right?”

Trump, Greenland, and NATO Relations

8:32 to 14:01

Exploration of Trump's interest in Greenland and its geopolitical implications.

“Mads, our resident Dane, obviously, you are naturally irritated by this, I would assume.”

The Long-Term Impact of Short-Term Deals

14:01 to 16:46

Exploring the implications of short-term transactions and their effects on future relationships.

“I mean, we sometimes talk about a dealmaker and trying to make deals, but it seems like you do a deal that's good in the short term, but where is this going to lead longer term?”

Regulating Social Media for Minors

16:47 to 19:30

Discussion on France's initiative to ban social media for users under 15 and its implications.

“It's just another saber rattling reminder that we need to be more independent and self-reliant.”

Youth Social Media Use: Trends and Concerns

19:31 to 22:28

Analyzing changing patterns of social media use among youth and the push for stricter regulations.

“with practical difficulties, as you can imagine, right?”

Meta's Acquisition Strategy and Its Implications

22:29 to 23:38

Examining Meta's recent acquisitions and their potential impact on the tech landscape.

“And they don't use social media as much as they did.”

Kraken's Emergence from Octopus Energy

23:39 to 27:36

Insight into Kraken's growth and its potential to overshadow its parent company, Octopus Energy.

“what Cloud Code is on the developer and more sort of pro-user side.”

Revolut's Expansion into Turkey

27:37 to 28:00

Discussing Revolut's strategy for entering the Turkish market and its implications for growth.

“We didn't have this one on the list, but it looks like they are approaching a billion in ARR, which is fantastic.”
Show all 30 chapters

Revolut's Expansion Strategy

28:00 to 29:28

Explore how Revolut is strategically entering the Turkish market and its implications.

“You can use it for free, but then you can subscribe to get custom emojis and animated profiles and status symbols and other good things.”

UK Pension Fund Challenges

29:28 to 32:49

Discussion on the performance issues facing UK pension funds and the impact on investors.

“I know that the UK exchange was looking to push them to do UK.”

Risk and Return in Pensions

32:49 to 34:59

Understanding the relationship between risk, return, and pension fund management strategies.

“is via portfolio construction, is via diversification, is by having the right mix of investments.”

Exploring Pension Fund Potentials

34:59 to 37:12

Analyzing how pension funds can better leverage their capital for higher returns.

“In Amsterdam, I think it's 200 % of GDP.”

The Catch-22 of Pension Investments

37:12 to 40:50

Discussing the paradox of needing allocations for better performance in pension funds.

“And IRR is the internal rate of return, so the annualized return.”

German Dentists Suing Pension Fund

40:50 to 42:00

A lawsuit from German dentists highlights the risks of poor investment choices in pension funds.

“There are two other aspects to it, I think.”

Pension Fund Lawsuit and Venture Capital Insights

42:00 to 43:10

Discussion on a lawsuit against a pension fund for poor venture capital investments.

“You're not going to throw in a 230 joke, are you?”

Market Performance and FTSE 100 Analysis

43:10 to 45:10

Analyzing the recent performance of the FTSE 100 and its implications.

“I'm kind of with you, but it's not just we're not just talking about venture here.”

The Rise of Biotech and Psychedelics

45:10 to 47:40

Exploration of the biotech sector's growth and the significance of psychedelics.

“Like how much of that was driven by AI and the data center?”

NVIDIA's CES Announcements and Autonomous Driving

47:40 to 50:40

Overview of NVIDIA's new technologies revealed at CES and their implications for self-driving cars.

“You know, interestingly, the comp here is a company called GW Pharma, which you may remember was a UK company founded by Dr.”

NVIDIA's Challenges in Physical AI and Software

50:40 to 54:00

Discussion on NVIDIA's focus on physical AI and the challenges they've faced in software applications.

“twice the size of the US and five times the size of Europe.”

China's Semiconductor Market and Global Competition

54:00 to 56:00

Insights into China's semiconductor capabilities and the competitive landscape in tech.

“They've looked at logistics and they're in automotive.”

Chinese Semiconductor Challenges

56:00 to 56:31

Discussion on the limitations faced by Chinese semiconductor companies.

“So even if they can make the semiconductors, they can't get the memory to put on top of it.”

AMD and Intel's Competitive Landscape

56:32 to 57:28

Analysis of AMD's and Intel's latest products and their market positions.

“AMD, I thought we're going to just kind of fall back into the shadow.”

Grok's Valuation and Market Position

57:29 to 58:26

Insight into Grok's recent funding and valuation challenges.

“And they're, of course, far, far behind the Taiwanese manufacturers.”

AI Censorship and Free Speech Debates

58:27 to 59:39

Discussion on the balance between censorship and free speech in AI models.

“X might have 600 million users, but Grok's just got a small fraction of that, I think 30 million miles.”

Claude Code and Google Engineers

59:40 to 1:00:48

Exploring how Google engineers use Claude Code for rapid development.

“where you're like, well, I'm asking you to do like a document scan, not like find nasty things on the web, and there are often little bricks in the way.”

UK's Faculty Exit and Market Trends

1:00:49 to 1:01:52

Overview of Faculty's exit and its significance in the UK AI market.

“I've lost track of the circuits of cash.”

DeepMind's Story and Its Impact

1:01:53 to 1:02:40

Reflections on DeepMind's journey and its cultural significance.

“It is a kind of a full-length movie, but what Google did, I think six weeks ago, basically said, listen, it's a good movie.”

Biographica's Innovative Agricultural Solutions

1:02:41 to 1:04:00

Highlighting Biographica's advancements in crop technology.

“which is pretty good for a full film, right?”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00This week on Upside, we're talking about Trump, Greenland, NATO, defence spend, what does that mean for the European ecosystem? Meta buying Manus. What's going to cook there? Energy deals are plenty. We've got a few surprise IPOs sliding under the carpet. The FTSE is outperforming the S &P and nobody knows or cares, but we're going to talk about that. We've got a mega massive AI corner, especially driven by CES in Las Vegas. And deals of the week.

0:39now first up lomax one of yours chat gpt at time of recording was last night the wednesday i think it came out what i guess there's not much to talk about yet because it came out on wednesday night but what's the deal what's gonna happen so open ai have released a specific health chat gpt for everyone apart from in Europe, it seems, as is usual customary these days. Yes. So we haven't had a chance to try it out. As I said on the pod before, I mean, I already use, and lots of people already use ChatGPT for health advice. I think the real difference here is, so this is a health-specific version of ChatGPT.

1:18They're effectively saying it has higher levels of encryption to protect safety, data, and patients. So, you know, I don't know. There's a lot of hate for this on Reddit, actually, interestingly. a lot of hate and definitely like you use with care whether you're using like normal chat gpt or the health chat gpt clearly you should be using with care as i've said before i i regularly use chat gpt upload my own blood blood tests and results and and query them and i think if you use it with a healthy dose of skepticism um as you should with any llm right yeah and anything you put in you should you should not take a gospel um but i think it's actually i I think it's great as long as it's used with that caveat in mind.

2:00One thing I would say is, yes, sir. This is private, right? So this is a non-learning, this is you connecting your Apple Health Kit, Android Health Kit. You can connect your wearable data. You can upload your EHR. You can upload blood tests or whatever, you know, imaging results or whatever you have and query them. I mean, to be honest, a lot of that you can already do with the existing ChatGPT. So why launch it? Well, firstly, I think is clearly there are a lot of people who quite rightly are worried about safety of confidential information. And basically, that's why one of the key descriptors of why do this is that they have an enhanced encryption for this data, right?

2:45To encourage more people to do it in this kind of more siloed way. I would say it's very timely because this week, which is coincided with CES, where it was announced by the FDA. The FDA in the US has announced a couple of things that I think are very, very interesting from the point of view of the application of AI to healthcare, both in hospitals and consumer. Under Trump, as we know, there is a sort of wave and push to deregulate things and to make things simpler and less bureaucratic. And Marty McCurry, a wonderful or literative name, who is the head of the FDA, has stood up this week and say he wants FDA regulations now, he wants them to move at the speed of Silicon Valley.

3:32I mean, who the hell would have thought that you'd hear that from a regulator? I guess you'd never hear that from a European regulator. But there are two things that caught my eye this week, what the FDA has done. It's done a couple of things. It's very, very interesting. Now, the background here is, You know, AI in healthcare is not new. And before LLMs, we had a whole wave of effectively computer vision companies taking AI, applying it to images. So CT scans, MRI scans, ultrasounds, x-rays, and coming up with AI products to help clinicians make decisions, help radiologists to make decisions, right?

4:06So they can look at the CT scan and look for lung nodules or whatever it may be, cancer, et cetera. now the fda was very very strict on these at the time this is 2016 2017 2018 and was this is a this is a medical device we're going to regulate this like hip replacements like catheters like pacemakers right so a lot of startups raised a lot of money i invested in some maybe you guys did too a lot of our friends did a lot of them came out of europe out of the uk out of um out of france and obviously the us to the point where we have now over a thousand of these devices software's medical devices approved for use in healthcare in the US.

4:44Now those startups, you know, to get through the FDA regulations would have spent a lot of money. You know, there's like million is both time and, you know, cost regulatory advisors, et cetera, to the point where there are now a thousand devices. So what we've got is, is a whole bunch of startups have gone through this onerous FDA process to get their clinical decision support at AI software regulators. The FDA came out this week saying you no longer need to do that. So it's great news for companies going forwards. It's bad news for companies that have already thought they had a big moat. Secondly, on wearables, slightly more consumer side, they are taking a much lighter touch as to how they classify them as med devices.

5:24It will depend along the claims that you make. So clearly you can't make claims. This is a medical grade device to monitor X, Y, Z. But basically what all of this is, is the FDA is saying, being more permissive, cutting red tape, making it easier for health companies to get to market. Has it happened? Is it already in action? Well, they made the announcements this week. I don't know when it takes effect this week. I think it is immediate effect. So I think this is exciting. And this is relevant to Europe because quite frankly, most European health tech companies you know the the one of the biggest go-to markets is in the u.s i mean u.s spends roughly 20 percent of gdp on health right so it's the biggest health care market in the world so it's hugely relevant you know i mean you know the doctors and the medical community i'm sure will hate this and there's probably some listening to this who are outraged by it and you know of course there will be some there will be some negative fallout from this but this is the way that the u.s is moving at the moment across many verticals and disciplines and it's an interesting time for sure So one thing that's often popular in the medical community is to get a second opinion.

6:27And it can be really useful because it seems that if you've got two doctors, you have three opinions, right? So it can often be useful to hear what other people think. One of the things that are super useful about the LLMs is you've got at least four really, really powerful frontier models readily available. And one of the things that's not too hard to do is if you implement Cloud Code is to set up a little MCP, it's got a model context protocol, and then feed in whatever context you have, whatever symptom you want to analyze or your blood test or whatever, and then have a query, all four LLMs at the same time.

7:07They don't always agree, but there's a beautiful way of reconciling them. So you get back a report saying, well, three of them thought this and the other one had this perspective of it that should be added. It definitely enriches the analysis. So if anybody hasn't played with this yet, I highly recommend it. Oh my goodness. I think this goes back to just like, how do we tool, how is society tool to use LLMs for more complicated things like this? Because that's why I think chat GPT health is such a good idea because we need applications, the role models themselves. I mean, come on, you need scaffolding on top.

7:41So what I've described as kind of a bit of a hacky way to do it, but there's no reason why you couldn't do it in a more application-hardened way that's good for consumers. And we shouldn't be saying to people, don't use ChatGPT for legal advice. Don't use it. Don't use the LLMs for health advice. It's rubbish. But you know why they're not? I mean, you know why they are, sorry, why they are saying don't use them 4X is because they are taking that word. So you almost have to work. Maybe the 4LMs is the answer. That's my point. I would rather see an investment in educating people how to actually use and interpret these tools and know their limitations and be able to to be able to act accordingly i think rather than just saying to people don't use it go and speak to a lawyer so what's the point in having the technology in the first place but we live in a world where people believe fox news lomax i mean i don't know how you would educate educate the masses to be able to use llms in that educated way but then maybe your maybe your vertical kind of hacky four four llms in a pod is not a bad solution no but that's that's too hackery i i think that this goes back to education as well and school you know layering how we use technology in school is is important yeah i thought we were going to get we're going to get bang into you know does the government really want to educate people i thought we were going to fall into that argument oh no let's not go there but i think we do enough politics already so let's let's be careful on that one but hey well no we are going to say politics because we can't not talk about Trump, Greenland, NATO, defence, you know, what's happening now.

9:13Mads, our resident Dane, obviously, you are naturally irritated by this, I would assume. So tell us, give us a bit of the history and tell us what's going on and then pair it back to how it's going to affect us in Europe. Well, everybody's seen the headlines. You know, Trump has wanted Greenland for a long time. He has said that the Europeans and the Danes specifically can't defend it. It's at risk of being overrun by belligerents from China and Russia. And it's a big island. And therefore, the U.S. needs this island. And as he's been saying that for a while, and then, of course, what he's come out now to say, the White House has sort of said, military initiatives or interventions are always an option.

9:55And it's been rather odd because, you know, Greenland has been part of Denmark for hundreds of years. I mean, kind of the relationship. Denmark has had a presence in Greenland since 1721. So it's kind of before the United States was founded. So it's kind of something that goes back for quite some time. And Denmark is also, has historically been a strong ally of the United States. It was a founding NATO member. It's kind of one of the original 12 back in 49. And in 1951, so after the Second World War, the United States tried to buy Greenland. And they didn't think that was a good idea. So in 51, a defense agreement was made that sort of gave the United States more or less permanent jurisdiction over Thule.

10:47It was kind of this military base. and the Americans, they've been able to host nuclear bombers there and they had a missile base. You have a 75-year history of the Americans pretty much being able to do whatever they want to do there anyway, which does sort of make somebody wonder, well, is this really about defending the island or is it about something else? We know that during the Cold War, the Americans had as much as 10 ,000 troops stationed there. I mean, let's be honest, this is not a beach resort. We say an island, but it's pretty frigid. So they've pulled it back to 150 troops now, and it's probably another nice place to be sent.

11:32I imagine there are not that many volunteers. There has been a precedent for trading islands between the countries. Back in 1917, the United States bought the Danish Virgin Islands and the Caribbean. But you had a specific situation. There was a referendum held at the time, people voted yes, all that stuff. Whereas in Greenland today, the position of the Danes and the Europeans really is, look, this is a matter for Denmark and for the Greenlanders, the people that live there, of which I think close to 90 % are saying absolutely, they have zero interest in becoming American. So it's an odd thing.

12:06That poll was 18 months ago, isn't it? I've not seen a recent poll. I'm not seeing a 2025 poll. Yeah, I don't imagine it's gone up much. Of course, some people are arguing, look, there aren't that many Greenlanders. The United States could offer each one a million bucks, right? And tax-free for the rest of your lifetime. And that would be a surrounding error in the US government budget. And you might get access to lots of minerals and oil and other things. And maybe that's what ends up happening. But I think the thing that's so odd here is just going back to kind of Pax Americana and the world order after the Second World War, which there's been the grand bargain, which is kind of the United States is the guarantor of, if not world peace, then peace in the Western world, right?

12:48And we'll secure that. And in exchange, we're going to buy their stuff. And we're going to feel good about buying their stuff, unlike what's happened with the Chinese, like Huawei tries to sell telecoms equipment. And Europeans say, no, we're not going to buy it. The Americans, they sell super sensitive stuff, like military hardware and comms equipment. We're like, yeah, come on, bring it in. We're happy. We're all friends. That was all found on Pax Americana. We're all trusting each other. And it just seems like that hasn't been fully thought through. But I can't imagine a European government that right now hasn't started thinking about, we are spending a lot of money with Microsoft.

13:25And is that the next thing they're going to switch off? Right? And so on and so forth. And so it just seems that, you know, the surface level, yes, I know Trump has been unhappy with the amount of money that has been spent policing the world. but I wonder whether they haven't actually made more back in terms of commerce and sort of just the ability to sell all the tech. He's a short-termist though, isn't he, really? And he's so transactional. Look, here's the thing. Here's the thing. The only people using cash or violence to negotiate, that was mobsters. And it just, it seems like a very, you say short-term.

14:01I mean, we sometimes talk about a dealmaker and trying to make deals, but it seems like you do a deal that's good in the short term, but where is this going to lead longer term? Those are some of the questions that are going around. Well, I mean, he's got a long list of precedents about short-term mobster-style transactions. Lomax, you got any notes on this one? I swing from one extreme to the other on this. I can see a world where we're just like, quite frankly, f*** it. Like, you know, the French sold Louisiana to, or Napoleon sold Louisiana to the Americans in 1803 or whenever it was. it was a commercial deal.

14:37I think now it's like it's a bit it's no longer in fashion to be in the in the business of buying and selling countries now. I think we now need to actually consult the people that live on the ground. So I think you know let the people of Greenland decide quite frankly. Look I do think from a defense perspective Greenland is hugely important particularly from the U.S. perspective and if we're still in the kind of lot of the throw our lot in with the U.S. in the whole Western Hemisphere, then why not let the biggest, effectively the only real Marshall economy that now has just signed a$1 trillion defense budget for 26 and has just announced that up to push that up to$1.5 trillion for next year.

15:17Why not let them just run the defense side of things, particularly given it's on their side of the Atlantic? They do that today? Yeah. Well, as Mads says, de facto, that's the position rather than de euro, right? They could always scale that up from back from the hundred to the... No, no, de jure. There is an alliance. There's a treaty signed in 1951 giving them more or less free reign. They've never said no. The Greenlanders have never said no. Denmark has never said no to a military presence from the Americans, as far as I've ever read. This is minerals, mining rights. This has got nothing to do with China or Russia.

15:50This is to do with money, surely. And so the question is, I mean, it's not as if this is newly acquired territory for Denmark. And Denmark has been funding Greenland. It's not a profit center today. It has been funding it for hundreds of years. You know, is it right that there's just kind of a forced cessation of that territory? And then, you know, the Trump administration gets to profit from the minerals that are there. And it seems like a slightly odd way to treat an ally. Totally. Yeah. Is there anything that we can kind of pare back to investing maybe in the defense space, the resilience space, any kind of knock-on effects that we can marshal?

16:33Well, it's resilience and sovereignty. It's kind of two things, right? So we need to increase our defense spending because we are weak right now. And that's why the situation is the way it is. And we need to make sure we have more sovereign capability. So it's just another nail in that coffin, right? It's just another mistrust. It's just another saber rattling reminder that we need to be more independent and self-reliant. But there's nothing - Another brick in the wall. Another brick in the wall. It's just really, it's so interesting. And I know that you shot me down in flames for saying this last time, Mads, about the paralleling this between Nazi Germany and then going and conquering and taking resources because they were running out of money and to deal with their own deficits.

17:16but this feels like Venezuela and Greenland and what else next will they go and rob to try and to try and bolster the coffers it just feels like this is part of the thing I think the words that were used were they don't have an alternative and I think all I'm saying is I do think there is an alternative it just requires kind of some more political will to make the reforms at home that are required yeah of course it's always I mean it's always easy to drop somebody else's stuff that diplomatic political will doesn't seem to be there. It's just going, let's do it. Executive order. Boom, we're in.

17:48Who needs Congress to pass anything? Let's just go. Do it. Actually, talk about rules and regs. So France is now looking to ban social media for under 15, just to change tack, following Australia. And if memory serves, Norway and I think Denmark or maybe Sweden were either thinking about or have actually brought into is some kind of regulation around stopping younger people from using social media. But don't quote me on that one. But mobile phones have been banned in French primary and middle schools for seven years, six, eight years now. And it looks like they might also be banning them in high schools.

18:26So I guess, Lomax, give us a bit of background here. And I guess my main kind of thoughts, questions, is this going to be more of an irritant to Trump? And is this going to be more of a whipping stick to kind of get you're banning big tech and you're stopping my companies from doing what they need to do so that that was my angle on this but also quite interesting that more countries are now looking to ban social media for young of course like not exactly not like entirely directly at all related to greenland but still like consistent consistently driving a wedge between the eu and the u.s in respect across many many different areas right so france as you said is planning to ban social media for under 15s and mobile phones and high schools now from september 2026 or later this year is that actually happening i thought that was just an idea is that actually that plans to sorry they need to they need to push it through australia did this um for under 16s in in december last year look france has already started we talked about this before france has already started to make steps in this direction in 2023 they passed a law which i think this is a kind of messy middle ground law where where they're under 15s they have to get the parents to consent to for them to access social media but i think that is fraught with practical difficulties, as you can imagine, right?

19:36Look, Trump will clearly hate this. You know, there's no love lost between particularly France and Macron and Trump anyway. And Trump will see this as an attack on US companies, you know, big tech as it is. Look, and this will feed into the narrative of yet more claims of like European regulatory overreach, right? And nanny state behavior. Especially when they're going the other way and loosening and freeing. Correct, exactly. We talked about in the context of health earlier, where the US cuts red tape and deregulates and generally becomes a bit more libertarian. The EU continues to move in the other direction.

20:10But you know what? I'm always berating the EU Commission or whichever, you know, the ECJ or whoever it is in the EU, the parliament for overreach in respect of technology regulation. But you know what? I think this is one where this is too important. I mean, this is kids. This is the future. And even actually I've dug out a report from the US Surgeon General recently, which said, okay, looking at social media, mobile phone and social media use in teenagers. So, no, clearly they said 95 % of youth between 13 and 17 report using social media platform. Well, no new surprise there, but almost more than a third say they use social media almost constantly, almost constantly, right?

20:51So look, what do I think here? Regardless of the EU-US thing, I'm like, I'm sure big tech will survive this. Like, you know, if a bunch of teenagers in Europe, you know, have access to social media taken away. So I think from a kind of commercial perspective, they can ride it out. You could also argue that, you know, quite frankly, standing up compliance for this is quite expensive. It actually almost creates another moat for them. Like imagine like new challenge, you know, the next Snapchat wants to come through, et cetera. It's going to make it very, very hard, right? So you could also argue it makes it, it gives them even a little bit more of a moat.

21:27but most importantly commercially they'll ride it out and i'm afraid teens will find a way i'm so i'm sorry but teenagers will find a way to circumvent any rules i'm sure yeah that is that is very true but i think at least at least we should put a couple of a couple of fire breaks for the teenagers to try and break through it because i think this is way too important the amount of speed bumps the amount of people that i just see zombified from from these friends and and you know a good friend of mine actually in the uk is running a it's running um is running campaign now to move to remove mobile phones from schools in the uk which is actually spearheaded by a student herself who was exposed to like horrific videos from her fellow students just like this is enough this is ruining the safe space that it needs to be for me so my kids are too young but my god kids they don't use that much social media there's a bit of a movement in and my god kids are anywhere between 14 and 20 well the oldest is 21 now so they and i've got eight of them and they've I speak to them quite regularly about what the youth is doing and how do youngsters think about these things.

22:30And they don't use social media as much as they did. Like when they were all coming through, they were all over Instagram and X and whatever else, Snapchat and TikTok and TokTik. But now they're not. There's a bit of a mood shift in young people as far as my small sample. This is one where I'm actually, I'm very pro. Yeah, I am too. staying with social meta buying manis now my assumption here is get meta needs to accelerate needs to kind of catch up with the other foundational crew and they're using this as a stepping stone as and as a leapfrog mads is that a fair a fair assumption i think so absolutely so we've seen how the kind of in the whole world of agents the application layer has taken off whether it's Cursor, kind of the first kind of wheel application that shot through the roof, and then Cloud Code, of course, that's taken the world with Storm, kind of this command line, a gentic harness that you can use to code, and so many other things.

23:37Where you could say Manus is almost on the consumer side, what Cloud Code is on the developer and more sort of pro-user side. It's a beautifully made platform, kind of founders coming out of China, And moving to Singapore, setting up there because they specifically wanted to build a company that had free access to sell to the West to get raised investors from the West. And they raised capital from Benchmark, which, of course, is one of the top, top, top firms in the world. And that was only back in April. And so I think Benchmark invested at a 500 mil valuation and now to build the other way. So, yeah, it's been great for them.

24:14And it just goes to show how important applications are. It's not just about models. What did it sell for? It was a two and a half bill. I couldn't pin down the exact figure. Yeah. Staying with big chunks of change, Kraken, I thought this is a really interesting Kraken. This kind of happened under the carpet, I think because it's not kind of whoop, whoop, cool American tech. It just didn't really kind of get the same PR, but Kraken being spun out of octopus energy, I think for Bill, I think D1 are the lead in the deal. Mads, you can correct me if I'm wrong, But I also didn't realize they're doing like half a bill in contracted revenue.

24:53This is a big thing that was kind of snuck inside an energy company in the UK. I think they're just UK. Mads, what's the deal here? Yeah, look, it's a big tech company that's hiding in plain sight. I think the valuation is what, kind of eight, eight and a half billion. So Octopus incubated the company, and it's a company that's used for metering, but also to manage energy flows, especially around some of the grid stuff that's happening. And they're spitting it out because they serve competitors. And I think Octopus had to let it go to let it grow. It's exciting that there's a European champion coming out in the space.

25:31I don't know if their revenue is 500 mil yet. I know we've seen 500 mil contracted, but I wonder, I think some of that might be multi-year contracts. So then you have a 500 mil backlog. Otherwise, it's pretty cheap, actually. Kind of a company growing at that clip. You know, if you have 500 mil of ARR, that should be valued higher than an 8.6 bill. If you're growing at the speed, they are. But yeah, exciting and great. Good for them. I'm a customer and I do believe that execution is going to be part of the moat, ongoing forward looking for especially for ai companies because there's almost no excuse for an elegant execution whether you're b2b b2c whatever you are so i do believe that part of their growth and part because octopus have always been just really bloody good at delivering products that work and i didn't know that kraken was part of this melee i was just thought it was octopus energy but it's just a really good offering so all power to them lomax you got any notes on this one they built an incredible business with kraken that's quite frankly kraken will end up over superseding the the size of octopus energy at some point you know that i mean octopus energy they don't seem to be that profitable like i'm trying to look at i was trying to dig out some of the figures but maybe that's all on purpose i mean who knows how how you know accountants would like to to present it's a bit like it's a bit like space you know space links and starlink you know like the starlink is an absolute behemoth of a business and that they were planning at one point to demerge them although now it looks like they're going to you IPO the whole lot together.

27:01But Starlink's the real cash cow within that organization. It looks like Kraken is the same. They've opted to go down the demerged route. We're going to demerge. We're going to consciously uncouple, my darling. Talking about IPOs, Discord looks like they're going to IPO. Felt like they kind of snuck that under the radar. Discord, the chat app. Mads, what's cooking here? It's just super exciting to see another company being looted for an IPO. I mean, we'll have a real bump a year if Trump doesn't go completely crazy with invading. We need it for our 26 predictions, don't we? So bring on the IPOs.

27:38There you go. We didn't have this one on the list, but it looks like they are approaching a billion in ARR, which is fantastic. How? So this is it, right? This is it for old timers like us. How do you really explain this? Discord, It's an app that sits on top of kind of the whole world of gaming and gamers can use it to communicate. And they're custom. So it's a freemium product. You can use it for free, but then you can subscribe to get custom emojis and animated profiles and status symbols and other good things. And you sign up for a subscription and bada boom, bada bing, and you've got a billion dollar revenue company.

28:13So well done, Dan. Wow. Wow. And Revolut are looking to buy and build and getting into the Turkish market using the digital bank FUPS, F-U-P-S. This looks like a smart strategy. Lomak, do you have some thoughts on this? Well, no, I just think, look, Revolut is on an absolute tear now, right? So 65 million users have stated desire to get to 100 million users by mid-2027. Turkey is a massive market, 85 million people. It's actually the biggest, you know, Germany is what, 84 million people. Of course, Turkey as a country is the single biggest country if you include it. It's not in the EU, clearly, but within broader Europe.

28:49This is effectively acquiring a banking license, right? You're acquiring a small… You're buying access, right? Yeah, which is like you still need to get… What do you do when you enter a new market? You either apply DeNovo or have an issue for a new license or you buy a company that has an existing license. You still need the regulator to approve the transaction, but normally that's easier. So they still need to wait for that to happen. You know, don't forget that, you know, Revolue still hasn't got its full banking license in the UK yet. That's still coming through. But it is building up a very, very interesting suite of licenses now.

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29:19And it now has permissions in Mexico, in India, in Australia, as well as obviously its core Lithuanian banking license, which is the EU full license. So, look, it makes complete sense. The business is unstoppable. The only question now on Revolue is like, barring some major, I don't know, cyber attack or major regulatory failing, which can happen in banks, you know, can they be a$200 billion company or can they be a$1 trillion company? That's the kind of big question. Aren't they on our IPO list? I know that the UK exchange was looking to push them to do UK. Yeah, but they're not going to IP in the UK.

30:00No, I think I read the quote was something like, that would make no sense or something was the retort to the request. But it looks like they may well might be one of our 26 IPO listers, I think. I don't think it's not a 26. I think it's a 27 candidate. They've got to get that full UK license first as well before the IPA. What's the holdup? Do we know? Well, they've got the license, but it's still subject to limitations. Isn't it? Well, I don't know. I mean, Rachel Weaves is probably like harassing the PRA, the Prudential Regulatory Authority, just to tell them to get it bloody done. I wonder what the real story is there behind the scenes.

30:36Well, I'm sure the real story is, you know, you can read about it between the lines, is that some of their, whatever you want to call it, compliance, record keeping, whatever, has a little bit of a kind of Silicon Valley startup style. You know, it's always been a bit grey flavoured, hasn't it? It's always been a little bit. We need to squint at this one. Well, the flip side is, you know, you build a lot more slowly and cautiously and you have that kind of higher degree of hygiene, but you probably wouldn't have, you know, you probably wouldn't be on the cusp of 100 million users. But they're on the, I mean, surely they're on the edge of not really giving a monkeys about the UK.

31:09I mean, if they keep expanding and then buying access, at what point do they go? Well, that's very true. They've already got an EU license and they've already got a full license in Mexico, I think. And again, they've got an Indian E-money license. Yeah, you're right. You're not wrong. UK pension funds also in the news this week for all the wrong reasons. Two main key stories that I saw. One was them kind of kicking back to the government saying, look, we're not a play thing. So kind of the backstory here is that Reeves has introduced legislation to enable regulators to force a minimum amount of investment via pension funds into privates.

31:44So and they kind of kick back and we'll hang on a minute, you know, don't don't use us as your as your toy. But the main story and the main thrust of the story was that there was I think the quote was you're better off putting your bank, your money into a high interest bank account because they're underperforming and really poorly performing. But Mads, what's the what's the real story before I eat my words? Yeah, so I think it's not to be fair, it's not all of them that are underperforming, but some of them are to the tune of less than one point five percent annualized return, which is pathetic.

32:14right and especially with inflation or whatever between four and eight yeah over the last year basically basically it's just value destruction there's so many aspects to this of course the trustees and other people in the sector are right to say it's not a play thing these are people's retirement incomes in the future but the challenge is we've engineered risk out of pensions we've created a system where risk is seen as something bad and as any investor will tell you risk and return comes together. You have to take risk. And the way you minimize the risk and maximize return is via portfolio construction, is via diversification, is by having the right mix of investments.

32:56Whereas instead of what trustees are incentivized to do today, really, is to minimize fees and minimize volatility. And then you end up in the rubric that says, well, let's maximize bonds because that's where we have minimization of fees and volatility. And it turns out that this fee obsession just puts everything backwards. It's really the net returns that matter. It's much better to pay a good manager 2 % to deliver 15 % than to pay them 0.1 % to deliver 5%. But just focusing on the cost, we're forcing ourselves into the wrong returns. But it turns out if you have funds that are large enough and sophisticated enough over a long horizon, you can deliver very healthy returns.

33:38Now, Svensson, he proved that at the Yale endowment, had much more of a private strategy delivered 13 % plus annually. And that's what we should aim for, right? So we probably do need to merge some of these smaller schemes. So they have more resource, more expertise, and can do more stuff that's not just, you know, how can I find the cheapest tracker or the cheapest, you know, mix of bonds, and then deliver these, these ridiculously poor returns? How can I do 1.5 in bonds? I mean, surely just by closing your eyes and doing bonds, you can do more than 1.5. That just makes no sense at all. Lomax, what, you've got some numbers on this one, haven't you?

34:11Well, I just think, look, I mean, there's a couple of things that we've talked about this before, and there's a lot of chatter about it across policy and venture circles in the UK. How do we get more pension money in both the UK and in Europe? And just to qualify that, if I remember correctly, there are only 17 firms in that pot. If either of you know that, I think that's right. I mean, check me. It's a very small amount. Yeah. You know, there's roughly three and a half trillion pounds of pension money. When you think about big pools of capital in any economy, the pension is one of the biggest, right?

34:45And in the UK, it's three and a half billion pounds across defined contribution and defined benefit schemes. It's a trillion. Trillion, sorry. Did I say billion? I meant trillion. It's roughly 110 % of GDP, right? So it's a healthy, healthy number. And the numbers are consistent across Europe. In Amsterdam, I think it's 200 % of GDP. But as Matt says - There are six other countries. I think I remember also seeing there are six other countries where their pension pots are larger. I think Sweden or Switzerland is top of the list, where the pension fund is larger than the market. Or what was the right?

35:20Larger than GDP. Larger than GDP. And Australia and Canada are both like big, big super savers. Canada, Australia. Super savers, yeah. But the point here is like, how do you get this money in? So you can force, so first of all, I think you need to create the permission to do it. the legal framework. And that still needs some work. In the US, they did this. And I think in the ERISA, I think it was the ERISA in 1956 or something, they changed the law to make it easier or more to free up the ability of pension trustees to not face liabilities for making investments in riskier assets, right? They could think about investments on a whole portfolio basis on a much more longer term lens.

36:01So you need to create the permission and framework to do that, which actually in EU and UK, we're not quite there yet. So there is a kind of regulatory piece. There is also, you know, do you get the gun out and put it to the heads of the trustees and force them to allocate? That is a solution mooted by, you know, currently by Rachel Reeves. That's in effect. Isn't it 5 % the mandate? The mandate, yeah. But I can't, what happens if they don't do it? You know, what is it? Like, what's the penalty? I guess. I guess. Well, this is where the kickback to win on a play thing came from. And I've said this before.

36:32there's like exactly exactly there's every time like everyone a sector needs more money the pension trustees always like you know put a tin hat on because people are going to come after them but the point is this which i think you need to create the performance to incentivize get the market kind of fix this because look just look at this right i was looking through the the cambridge associates the cambridge associates produce every every quarter benchmarks it's a they're an investor both their clients and themselves they're an investor in hundreds and thousands of venture funds. And they pull all of that data together and they show the kind of returns across all of that.

37:05Now, I was looking at the top 5 % of net IRR. So top 5%, top 5 % performing funds, net IRR, net is net of fees. So forget about fees. And IRR is the internal rate of return, so the annualized return. If you look at venture, you go 2010, 53 % net IRR. This is by vintage. So So each year I'm talking about is the vintage of the farm when it was created. 2010, 53 % IRR. 2011, 46. 2012, 57. 2013, 42. 2014, 40. 2015, 35. 2016, 37. So it comes down a bit. You get the picture. It's in at around 40 % to 45 % net IRR, right? And you were talking about these guys trying to produce between 3 % to 5 % to 6 % growth a year.

37:49But you need to have an element of your portfolio trying to get after these returns, right? And the performance is there, but the problem is that that requires a level of sophistication to try and get access to those funds because it's very, very hard to do that. In a way, people like Yale, you mentioned David Swenson, Mads, who was the big guru at Yale, who kind of pioneered the investment framework of having a much higher allocation of your portfolio to privates, including venture. Funnily enough, I was actually thinking it's like they stole a march and basically secured the allocation for life for Yale.

38:24Yale got into those funds when it was probably quite easy to in the 80s and is now in there forever. Whereas if you're Cambridge in the UK and like, well, actually, I'm just going to start allocating to venture now or Cambridge as an endowment. But if you're a pension fund, if you're the railways pension or whatever, the coal miners pension fund, and you say, I want to start accessing these funds, it's very, very difficult now because it's kind of dead bend shoes, as they say, right? Or the equivalent. However, I still think it's worth going after that. 100 percent. And I also think to some extent that the premise there is that we live in a zero-sum world, whereas we're just moving money around.

39:00Whereas actually I think the argument we should be making is, look, we are living in a low growth Western world right now because we have two rigid rules. It's too difficult to get stuff done. And we're not allocating enough capital to next generation technology that can help boost growth. Whereas if you're in a world where you have two or 3 % annual economic growth, the returns you can get are much bigger because you're creating much more wealth in society. Yeah, I agree. Sorry, just, but what I, what I was, my point is performance. We as managers need to show the performance that justifies the pension trustees allocating money to us.

39:42Those numbers are a lot. 100%. Those money, those returns, I just quoted a largely US fund. This is why people often talk about EU and US venture being comparable at the cohort level in terms of returns, which more or less it is. But if you look at the top decile or the top 5%, it's very, very different. It's very difficult to access top 5 % US venture for the reasons I just said, like the slots are allocated. But if European funds, where there is still room, could start to actually generate those kind of IRR numbers, 35, 40, 45%. Then you're sitting at a pension. Then at that point, it's criminal as a pension trustee not to invest in that stuff.

40:22This feels very catch-22 though, Lomax. This feels like, you know, I'm not going to give you a credit card until you've got credit kind of thing. It's a bit catch-22. We need the allocations to create, which has already begun without them, but we need the allocations to then create the next generation of winners, which then recycles back through the network. So I don't know how you break that cycle unless somebody goes, do you know what? We're going to force you or we're going to make it so sexy and incentivized to do so or something. There are two other aspects to it, I think. One is UK pensions are incredibly expensive for the taxpayer.

40:59It costs the treasury 40 to 50 billion pounds every year in subsidies and tax rebates for people to pay into pensions? And is it then fair that that cash is turned around and invested in large cap US equities? Maybe not. Do we need to subsidize provision of capital to Meta and NVIDIA? Probably not, right? So you can get the tax break, but funds have to be invested in productive assets here in Europe. I think it's not an unreasonable expectation. That's part of the kickback though, isn't it, Mads? That's part of the rejection of this kind of - I think there's a huge difference between forcing people to do something and saying, if you want the incentive, which is a very generous incentive, it's one of the biggest cost line items in the budget, we're going to have to do something in return.

41:46Yeah. I think that makes complete sense. So something caught my eye in the papers today. So a pension fund, if you saw this, guys, a pension fund of more than 10 ,000 German dentists, I need to keep a straight face when I say this, is now suing its pension. You're not going to throw in a 230 joke, are you? I don't know where you're going with this. It's going to, is suing, the pensioners are suing the managers of a 2 billion euro pension fund for investment losses of over 1 billion. So like, you know, half the fund, right? Because they made a bunch of dodgy investments in, wait for it, venture capital.

42:25Which goes back to my performance. Now, when I look at the actual investments they made, it included a shrimp farm and some slightly dodgy sounding direct. Not venture. Well, sorry, I guess it's what the German press, pension press call venture capital and various kind of dodgy sounding direct tech companies. Right. It doesn't, you know, they haven't made it investing in any kind of. I would love to have been the manager there. Wouldn't you like, what are we going to do? Do a shrimp farm. Exactly. But my cousin came with an awesome idea. But my point is this, is that, you know, that will, first of all, that that kind of story doesn't really help anything what we're doing here.

43:00But you really need to show performance and you need to show that good money can be made and that there is a deserved right in all of these portfolios for an allocation to what is an amazing asset class. I'm kind of with you, but it's not just we're not just talking about venture here. We're talking about all kinds of privates of which venture for most will be a very small part. But you've still got to be part of this. surely that's part of a diversified portfolio surely that's that's the whole point is that you're going to have a little bit of the crazy risky and then the less risky privates and all the growth or whatever it might be and all up into the public so i don't see why we why that can't be in much more of a natural a natural thing but we're going to stick with markets because the ftse this week hit 10 000 for the first time ever and one thing that i didn't realize because it's almost ignored and there is no fanfare is that the ftse actually beat the s &p 500 that's right matt isn't it yes depending on which currency you use etc i mean obviously we've had we've had the benefit of defense really rallying and the uk the footsie 100 is defense heavy you've had babcock you've had rolls royce you've had ba systems have all been absolutely skyrocketing okay well that's awesome isn't it shouldn't we be celebrating shouldn't we be opening the champagne and popping corks blimey it's a good thing does it tell us very much about the future wealth of the United Kingdom?

44:20I don't know. I think some of the defense stuff might be more transient. I don't think, I'm not sure that BAPCOC is going to turn into the growth engine that's going to drive UK GDP going forward. But yes, it's a good thing. I'm still choking the wind, baby. Sorry, Lomax, you go. Hang on, pop quiz. What's the percentage of technology in the FTSE 100? 0.1? 0.3? Don't ruin my joke, but it's 1%, right? Is it one? Well, is it a S &P 500? Well, I guess it's obviously so driven by MAG 500, but it's MAG 7, but it's, yeah, 30, 35, yeah. Well, 30 is just the MAG 7, right? It's 30%, isn't it? Yes, yes, yes, yes.

45:02Yeah, it's got to be a little bit more than that. I'm always intrigued by the notion of what would have happened to Trump's policies and what would have happened to tariffs if AI wasn't part of the picture. because i can't help but think that ai has supported trump's policies because i cannot surely if the mag 7 didn't exist the effect on the s &p from tariffs and all of the other exposure that would have hit more trad businesses would have been massive surely i don't know madzy this is your world not mine yeah but also sorry but also you know trump's been flouting the gdp growth in the US in the last year?

45:40Like how much of that was driven by AI and the data center? It's all AI. I mean, it's all tech. It's all AI, which is great. They've got it and I get it. He's shaking his head. It's government fiscal stimulus. Okay, you're running 6 % fiscal deficit. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you're achieving, what, 2 % to 3 % growth. That debt has got to be from going somewhere, right? No, no, of course. I mean, that's how GDP works. The government spends money. It's sort of, right, it pushes up GDP. Yeah, okay. Okay. Psychedelics. Let's get all woo and a wee. Lomax, what's happening with psychedelics this week? Well, let's go back to what's happening here.

46:14Let's go back. And when we made a prediction last week, I said biotech is having a really good moment. Biotech was in the absolute - Are you now talking your own book? Is that where we're going? Well, yeah, no, I'll do that. I've got a deal we're going to announce soon. I am going to talk my own book on soon, but not today. Look, biotech was in the doldrums two years ago. Absolute, like loads of companies. biotech actual drug companies trading below cash which meant that the market cap value of the company was below the cash they held on the balance sheet totally crazy at the same time digital health companies are really really struggling we're not gonna talk about that now but you know hims and hers this whole everything was in the doldrums two years ago people talked it down thought it was over and what's happening now you know the the s &p xbi etf for biotech was up 35 last year so she had a quietly you know behind the scenes had a really really good year And that continued.

47:02And I predicted this is going to continue this year. Now, psychedelics is a small part of biotech, right? Now, biotech, we talk about GLP-1s. We talk about oncology. We talk about, you know, drugs targeting chronic conditions, et cetera. But psychedelics is a small area. It does target a hugely important area, which is largely, you know, mental health, right? Which is becoming a bigger and bigger, which is both characterized by legacy drugs and medicines. hasn't really been any big breakthroughs in mental health and also now is like a much bigger bigger part of the health budget in countries right so psychedelics is having a moment as well and this week bright minds biotech which is actually a canadian company but psychedelics is relevant because two of the biggest companies in psychedelics are in europe i had a positive readout on a phase two trial for a compound targeting targeting extreme child epilepsy this is a synthetic compound that they developed called bmb 101 it's non-hallucinogenic so it's kind of psychedelics adjacent, but it's psychedelics light.

48:02Psychedelics light. You know, interestingly, the comp here is a company called GW Pharma, which you may remember was a UK company founded by Dr. Jeffrey Dye, who I think was called like Dr. Cannabis or something by the Daily Mail, which sold for 7 billion three years ago, right? To Jazz Pharma, which was taking cannabinoids, like part of the broader cannabis family. They actually had a drug for also childhood epilepsy, right? So this is kind of a comp and that's up for 7 billion. So Bright Minds, listen to this. Bright Minds was trading at 1.3 Canadian dollars a share in middle of 24. It's now trading at 130 100x in 18 months.

48:44Lucky I bought some. Look, and then Compass at the same time, just while PsychoDatics is having a bit of a week, Compass Pathways, which is a UK company, which is actually taking psilocybin, which is the active component of what we call magic mushrooms which is applying that to ptsd and to trd which is treatment resistant depression this week got what we call ind so investigational new drug applications you get the approval from the fda to start in-person clinical trials for one of their compounds and their stock is up as well so so more we're going to see more in psychedelics i think and there are some big trials reading out this year i think that this is part of i i will probably be beating this drum a bit this year.

49:22There's lots of really cool stuff happening across both sides of the Atlantic. The broader, more depressing story is that China has just jumped past everyone in biotech and everyone's kind of missed that. So we can talk about that another time. But generally, this is a cool time. That's okay. A bit of competition is no bad thing. So bring it on, I say. Well, I do think that at some point, Trump, when he's got through his big agenda list, is going to get to biotech and realize, shit, we need to invest a lot more money here because the Chinese have now totally stolen a massive margin. Only if there's a grift in it for him, if he can build a little Trump uni hotel plaza somewhere.

50:01Always. Yeah, there's always a way. Staying with the states, staying in gambling territory. I'm trying to, you know, can you feel my segue here? CES is happening right now. We'll just finish, I think, CES 26. Now, this is a consumer electronics show, but there's a lot of non-consumer stuff happening and AI being everywhere all over the place with either mobility or robotics and Intel, Qualcomm, AMD and NVIDIA all had new releases. So obviously silicon is a big part of our future as everybody knows. Interesting fact, China is the world's largest market for semiconductors. I can only find 24 figures but they were roughly at 350 billion twice the size of the US and five times the size of Europe.

50:44I'm sure 25. Maybe the proportions are the same, but the numbers would have changed. And no surprise, NVIDIA's announcements, I think, made the most waves. What really piqued my interest the most was the self-driving car software, where they're open sourcing not only the models, but also the data. Mads, tell us more about Alpamayo. Well, firstly, Alpamayo is really cool. So it's full stack, a full software stack for autonomous driving. And it's named after the Alpamayo Mountain Peak in Peru because that mountain peak is notoriously hard to climb, say people who have done it. And so is making cars drive by themselves.

51:25It's notoriously hard. It's a hard to scale problem. And that's why it was named thusly. It contains a number of things, Alpamayo. It contains some beautiful VLA reasoning models that can map what cars see, kind of the context and then driving actions. And it's got the emphasis on handling this long tail of trigger scenarios that are always very difficult. Elon Musk, he was out quickly saying, yeah, it's super easy to get autonomous cars to the first 99%. And then that last 1 % you spend on working for 10 years. Any risk for Tesla in this? I think there's risk for Tesla and Waymo and everybody else in the sense that it is a competing technology.

52:04If you're Wave, this could be directly competitive with Wave. Now, we know that NVIDIA have also invested in Wave, and we know that they are kind of the beautiful arms dealer, arms merchant that sells to everybody, and now also have launched their own technology. It's really, really cool that they are announcing this together with Mercedes, and they are announcing that they're shipping level two automation, so that's supervised steering and braking, in the next one to two quarters. So it's coming out very, very soon. Of course, it's just level two. It's still supervised by humans, but they're saying level four should be 2027.

52:38Of course. Next year, baby. Next year. Everything is next year. Well, yeah, exactly. Exactly. Now, Jensen is all about physical AI, as we know. He's been talking about that for a little while. They were running the manufacturing cloud. They had this whole omniverse technology where they were saying, look, we'll work with manufacturers to provide clever physical AI models that they can use to create and simulate digital twins and other things. That didn't work out very well. They spent hundreds of millions of dollars doing it. There was very limited demand. People in the industry were saying that the software wasn't very good.

53:15It was quite clunky and there was a gap between the vision and the execution. And it turns out that making this software is a lot harder than people might think. So NVIDIA, obviously, world leader in the semiconductors and all the software that sits on top of their GPUs to make them work. But then there are the applications on top and they haven't had a very good track record there. It feels like a weird one to do, Mads. It feels like a weird focus, self-driving cars. If you ask Jensen, he will say that physical AI is the biggest opportunity in the world, far bigger than GPUs, far bigger than anything else we touch.

53:52And that is his roadmap. And that's where he wants to go. So is this a hedge or is this a genuine direction? Are we going to see more apps out of NVIDIA? Well, they've now done manufacturing in a number of adjacent sectors. They've looked at logistics and they're in automotive. So this is absolutely what they're trying to do, but in partnership with others. But you're right. I mean, the chips are crushing it$148 billion of revenue in the first nine months of the last year. But the vertical software applications have not done quite as well. Alpamyo might be different, right? It's focused on one domain, just driving, as opposed to many, many different manufacturing domains.

54:31And Mercedes is shipping. Look, we're saying we're going to ship this year. So hopefully it'll work. Well, the German automotive, I've just got a new car and I was trying the assisted. I'm doing my air quotes for those that are listening, not watching. Assisted driving mode, which is shit in bad weather. It cannot track the roads at night in the rain. You're pulled all over the place. I'm like, okay, we need, obviously, having read the notes on Jensen's release on Alpha Maya, I thought, yeah, we need something hopefully smarter, especially for the German automotive, because I know they're so far behind the Chinese.

55:04Talk about China, Mads. Very quickly, they are now able to, they've approved the sales of the H200s. Is that right? The expectation is that it could happen as soon as this quarter. It was the big battleground. First, the Chinese were buying lots of GPUs. the Americans say you can't have the good ones. You can only have some cut down ones and you can't have any and then you can't have them anyway. And the Chinese were saying, well, we don't want them because we've got our own stuff. Huawei is building their Ascend chips. They're manufactured over by SMIC. We can design them. We can manufacture them.

55:37It's all great. Turns out it's really, really hard. The yields have been low. The performance has not quite been there and they're struggling with memory. They can't get enough memory to make enough chips. Isn't there a RAM shortage? There's a global shortage. And what the big Western manufacturers have done is they've just bought everything. Samsung, SK Hynix, they're sold out. Like you can't get allocation. The Chinese can't get allocation. So even if they can make the semiconductors, they can't get the memory to put on top of it. So it's a tricky situation. And which is what has happened is the kind of the quote unquote, the Chinese frontier labs, right?

56:15So their labs building the open source models have put pressure on the Chinese government to say, listen, you've got to let us have some of the good stuff from NVIDIA. Anything else from CES caught your eye? There is the whole discussion between AMD and OpenAI. Yeah, they're back. AMD, I thought we're going to just kind of fall back into the shadow. They are about a generation behind NVIDIA in terms of performance. They brought out the MI300. It was on spec, looked good, but the software was just not nearly as slick as NVIDIA's CUDA. And what I mean here by the software is the software that sits on top of the GPU and compiles kind of what a software developer will code when you're kind of maybe using PyTorch, when they make the LLM or kind of the AI model, and then compile that into the machine code that runs on the chips.

57:10and the technology that NVIDIA has got for doing that is just, they've got 20 years of experience in it. It's just much, much better than anything AMD has got. I also saw Intel were back as well. They had a few announcements. It also felt a little bit like clutching at straws as well. I don't know if that's fair. I guess they wanted to sign chips, but they also still have some manufacturing capability. And they're, of course, far, far behind the Taiwanese manufacturers. But I think I'm important from that perspective from a US angle. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Any notes on Grok? The note is that it's hard to...

57:46I'm just taking a step back. What's happened with Grok? Grok has, it's been announced, raised$20 billion at a$230 billion valuation. And this is Grok with a K, by the way, not Grok with a Q. Which was also sold for$20 billion to NVIDIA. It seems that 20 bill is the new, what's 20 B between friends? Exactly. It just drops out of my back pocket, baby. Don't worry about it. Exactly. Now, we've seen OpenAI and Anthropic raise at perhaps lofty valuations, but with very, very strong growth rates that you could see grow into those valuations over the next 12 to 18 months. It looks like Grok, so Elon Musk's AI, is raising at somewhere between, depending on what kind of revenue numbers you believe, somewhere between 400 and 700 times revenue, which feels lofty.

58:42X might have 600 million users, but Grok's just got a small fraction of that, I think 30 million miles. So it's hard to see that this is a fundamentals-based valuation right now, but it's Elon Musk, and there might be stuff going on that we don't know. I think it's great that there are four models, by the way. There's been some really nasty stuff. I think some of the stuff around, especially the image generation, some of the deep fakes that are happening on Grok. But that's because they're running fast, right? So they're just running with not much due care and attention, just running at walls, huh?

59:16Yeah. And I actually have a lot of sympathy with that. There's the running fast and running at walls, but there's also a view that there should be less censorship in the models. And we've seen some of the other model companies veer the other way, where the model spat out stupid, dumb stuff or couldn't talk to you about important things because we can't comment on political matters. I'm sure we've all encompassed that. I've experienced that a lot, especially recently, where you're like, well, I'm asking you to do like a document scan, not like find nasty things on the web, and there are often little bricks in the way.

59:49A hundred percent. Whereas Musk is much more unapologetic free speech. I think some of the image gen stuff is inexcusable, and they need to clean that up ASAP. But it's clear he's got definite star power, and there's attracted a good round and a very premium valuation. Crazy crazies. The last on my AI list, Mads, was the Claude Code. All the Google engineers basically fessing up to using Claude Code. Have you had any thoughts on this one? No, it's just really interesting. I mean, they were saying, look, it was hard for us to pick a direction. And we had different initiatives doing different things and developing software inside of Google.

1:00:25And then Claude Code helped us mock it up in an hour and spit out code that was performant very quickly. It's not the final product, but it took us very far in a very, very short span of time. Kind of use whatever toolkits you need, guys. Let's get to the goal. Let's get to the checkered flag. Let's not forget Google is a major anthropic investor. Well, everyone's an investor in everyone, and everyone's investing in this whole... I've lost track of the circuits of cash. Well, wonderful. Okay, my boys and girls. Deals of the week. Lomax, what's your deal of the week? We had a big exit in the UK this week.

1:00:59Faculty. I know. Again, no PR. Again, no noise, right? I don't know. I picked cropped up a bit for me, but you know, it was in quite a lot of the major, quite a lot of the major publications. Anyway, UK AI specialist that builds enterprise grade AI systems and decision intelligence tools will sort of be vague as far as I can tell, but they've sold for reportedly a billion dollars to Accenture. I think Accenture basically buying cash. So it's in cash. I'm sure there's a lot of earn out in there. They already raised 50 to$60 million actually. the series a series b apex local globe mercurie here he is again talking about google being everywhere on the on the cap table yeah jan talen also on the cap table you know he was one of the seed investors in um in our topic right he's the co-founder of wise right out of um estonia so good for these guys it's a billion dollar exit i mean you know go back to 2014 when um you know deep mind sold but much less than that and it was have you guys watched the um is it the learning game what's the yes yeah thinking game thinking game sorry yeah it's extraordinary it's extraordinary what a lovely lovely lovely chap what an interesting story yeah if you haven't seen the thinking game it's the demis asabis the the founder of deep mind it's his a lot about him but obviously a lot about the business and and what they're up to i thought it's really it was a really really lovely story i think it's i think it's only on youtube or is it net was it netflix to youtube i saw on You can see it in lots of places.

1:02:27It is a kind of a full-length movie, but what Google did, I think six weeks ago, basically said, listen, it's a good movie. You should all be allowed to see it. It's for free. And within four weeks, it got 230 million views, which is pretty good for a full film, right? And it was lovely hearing the story about, you know, all the investors trying to drag them to Silicon Valley. It's like, no, the R &D is here in the UK. We're going to stay here and build a world-changing business. and so mission-centric. It was just lovely. I loved everything about it. Anyway, my deal of the week was... Sorry, Jan Talon is Skype, not Y.

1:03:03I'm confusing my Estonian... Jan Talon from Talon. Wow, there you go. That's for sure. My deal of the week was Kraken out of Octopus, so we won't go into that because we've already done that. But Mads, you're going to talk our book, my love. We had a lovely announcement come out from the team over at Biographica. Sesi and Dom are building a fantastic business. they announced they've raised 8 million to build some super, super cool technology that can help develop next generation crops. We all need to eat and we need to eat well. And we have problems with things like climate change and pesticides and things we don't necessarily like.

1:03:41And what the Biographica team is doing is helping us develop next generation crops that are more resistant to pests. So we need fewer pesticides and more resistant to drought. so we can better weather climate change and still grow good food. And it's just a wonderful thing and a fantastic team doing great, great work. Love it. Love it. All right, my gents. Fantastic. I will catch you all next week. All love, health and light. Bye-bye. Love you both. All the best.

From the publisher

Welcome back to another episode of Upside at the EUVC Podcast, where ⁠Dan Bowyer⁠,⁠ Mads Jensen⁠ of ⁠SuperSeed⁠ and ⁠Lomax Ward⁠ of ⁠Outsized Ventures⁠⁠⁠ cut through the noise shaping tech, venture, and geopolitics in Europe and beyond.

This week starts lightly, as all good episodes do, with kids, illness paranoia, and the small joys of enforced medical naps. It escalates quickly.

From OpenAI’s new health-focused ChatGPT and the FDA’s sudden sprint toward deregulation to Trump’s Greenland fixation and what it really signals about European sovereignty to Meta buying its way into the AI application layer, pension funds destroying value at scale, and Nvidia’s push into physical AI. This is one of those episodes where everything connects.

The common thread is power. Who has it? Who’s losing it? And who’s still pretending nothing has changed?

This is Upside, where the takes are sharp, the systems are breaking, and the optimism is… cautiously conditional.

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What’s covered:

  • 00:00 Intro: ChatGPT Health launch, privacy/encryption, “use with skepticism”

  • 00:03 FDA shifts: deregulation + faster approvals for AI medical devices / wearables

  • 00:09 Trump + Greenland + NATO: geopolitics, minerals, defense, European sovereignty

  • 00:18 France proposing social media ban for under-15s; phones in schools; EU vs US regulation

  • 00:23 Meta reportedly buying Manus (AI agents / applications layer)

  • 00:25 Octopus Energy’s Kraken spin-out: valuation, contracted revenue, European “hidden champion”

  • 00:27 Discord IPO chatter: nearing ~$1B ARR; monetization model

  • 00:32 UK pensions: pressure to allocate to privates; constraints + risk/return tradeoffs

  • 00:42 FTSE 100 hits 10,000; UK vs S&P; defense-driven rally; low tech weighting

  • 00:50 CES: Nvidia autonomous driving + open sourcing; “physical AI” + Mercedes partnership

  • 00:54 China & Nvidia H20 pressures; AMD vs Nvidia software gap; Intel relevance

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E679 | This Week in European Tech with Dan, Mads & LomaxEUVC · 1 h 4 min
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