E712 | Nvidia’s $1T AI Bet, Hyperscaler Risk & The Real AI Battleground | Upside

23 Mar 2026 · 1 h 4 min · 26 chapters

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In short

Podcast Notes: EUVC Episode - Nvidia’s $1T AI Bet, Hyperscaler Risk & The Real AI Battleground | Upside

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Episode Overview In this episode of Upside, co-hosts Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen, alongside guest Lomax Ward, discuss the rapid developments within the AI infrastructure space, especially focusing on Nvidia's significant moves and the implications for startups and the broader market.

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Key Topics Discussed

  1. Nvidia's Trillion-Dollar AI Market
  2. Nvidia has laid out a roadmap predicting $1 trillion in chip orders by 2027.
  3. Significant advancements in hardware, particularly in inference performance, are driving this prediction.
  4. Nvidia's new product announcements at GTC include:
  5. Grok 3 LPU: An inference chip with a performance leap delivering 35 times more tokens per watt than previous GPUs.
  6. Vera Rubin GPU: A next-gen GPU offering 10 times the performance per watt, reducing costs significantly.
  1. Hyperscaler Investment and Market Risks
  2. Hyperscalers are reportedly spending $12 for every $1 earned from AI, indicating a concerning imbalance in capital expenditure.
  3. Debt financing is increasingly being used to support this investment rather than relying on free cash flow.
  4. Concerns arise from the potential market correction due to concentrated investments in AI and the increasing competition from tech giants.
  1. The Shift to Enterprise Control and Monetization
  2. The AI race is transitioning from model performance to distribution, enterprise control, and monetization.
  3. The episode highlights challenges faced by OpenAI surrounding monetization and strategic positioning in a competitive landscape.
  4. Notable competitors like Anthropic and Mistral are exploring diverse routes to capture enterprise markets.
  1. Capability vs. Adoption Gap
  2. The episode discusses the widening gap between AI capabilities and actual enterprise adoption.
  3. Despite significant technological advancements, companies are struggling to integrate and extract value from AI solutions.
  1. The Role of Startups in the AI Ecosystem
  2. Startups must navigate a challenging landscape shaped by the aggressive strategies of hyperscalers.
  3. There is a dramatic reshaping of startup opportunities as hyperscalers invest heavily in infrastructure and capabilities.
  1. European Policy Signals
  2. Discussion on the implications of European policies, including non-compete clauses, which may foster a more dynamic startup environment in the UK.
  3. The EUInc initiative aims to streamline business registration across member states, potentially reducing barriers for entrepreneurs.

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Key Takeaways

  • Nvidia's Future: Nvidia is positioning itself as a leader in AI infrastructure and is expected to continue dominating the market.
  • Investment Risks: The hyperscaler spending model raises concerns about sustainability and market volatility.
  • Market Dynamics: The shift from model-centric AI to enterprise-oriented strategies reflects the evolving needs and priorities of businesses.
  • Startup Landscape: Increased competition from hyperscalers necessitates that startups innovate and adapt rapidly to survive and thrive.

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Notable Quotes

  • "This isn’t just another AI cycle. It’s infrastructure, capital, and business models being rewritten at the same time."
  • "The race has shifted from developing model capability to deployment and distribution."

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Conclusion The episode provides a detailed exploration of the current landscape of AI infrastructure and venture capital in Europe, emphasizing the critical need for startups to navigate the challenges posed by major players like Nvidia and hyperscalers. The discussions also highlight the potential for European policies to reshape the startup ecosystem.

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Hosts

  • Dan Bowyer (SuperSeed)
  • Mads Jensen (SuperSeed)
  • Lomax Ward (Outsized Ventures)

Follow-Up For more insights on European venture capital, stay connected with EUVC at [eu.vc](http://eu.vc).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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The Inference Revolution at NVIDIA

0:45 to 4:16

Discussion about NVIDIA's projections and the implications of their new chip announcements.

“This show is not investment advice, and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured.”

NVIDIA's Major Chip Announcements

4:16 to 7:22

Insights into NVIDIA's latest chip developments and their impact on AI performance.

“And then the third thing, just to round that off, is the Feynman chip, the sort of 2028 generation.”

The Five Layers of NVIDIA's Business

7:22 to 10:29

Exploration of NVIDIA's transition from a chip company to a comprehensive platform provider.

“But interestingly, look, he's now being taken very seriously.”

Investment Outlook for NVIDIA

10:29 to 12:39

Analyzing the potential risks and growth opportunities for NVIDIA in the current market.

“feels like a hardware and semiconductor company, but it's certainly a very big one.”

New Business Models in AI

12:39 to 14:02

Examination of emerging business models from key AI players and their market strategies.

“So that's really the risk that three of the biggest customers, the big hyperscalers, you know, half the receivables, they are building their own competitors.”

Enterprise AI Strategies: A Unified Approach

14:02 to 15:10

Explore how companies are targeting the enterprise market with varied strategies.

“They showed up at GTC this week with Forge, which is a platform that allows the enterprise to train their own models from scratch on proprietary data.”

The Trillion Dollar Question: Ad Monetization for OpenAI

15:10 to 16:33

Delve into the challenges OpenAI faces in monetizing its user base amidst competition.

“Um, they're doing it in different ways as you alluded to.”

OpenAI's Future: Strategies and Challenges Ahead

16:33 to 18:08

Discuss the potential strategies OpenAI could adopt to remain competitive.

“Because nearly one in seven people on the planet are users of ChatGPT.”

AI Investment Concerns: Insights from Norway's Sovereign Fund

18:08 to 20:58

Analyze the concerns raised by Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund about AI valuations and market risks.

“Okay, I'm just saying the trajectory they were on now, there was a thought that it could become the first bona fide trillion dollar private company, right?”

Market Complacency and Structural Risks in AI

20:58 to 23:29

Investigate market complacency and its impact on the AI sector amidst rising risks.

“I think if it doesn't, they're in the world of hurt.”
Show all 26 chapters

The Changing Landscape of Hyperscalers' Financial Health

23:29 to 28:00

Examine the shift in financial dynamics for hyperscalers and its implications.

“Over the past decade, the sovereign funds equity portfolio shifted from 37 % US to around 55 % US.”

Apple's Unique Strategy Amidst Hyperscaler Growth

28:00 to 28:49

Discussion on Apple's cautious approach in the tech capital expenditure race.

“And now they're borrowing money to plow into data.”

Evaluating Market Growth and CapEx Justification

28:50 to 30:58

Exploring the sustainability of revenue growth in the current tech investment climate.

“I was looking at all the on-device with the M5.”

The Future of Hyperscalers: Opportunities and Risks

30:59 to 32:40

Analyzing the potential longevity and viability of hyperscaler businesses.

“So I think the question is, will the revenue grow fast enough to catch up before the market loses patience and says to the hyperscalers, guys, we're going to slash your equity price in half.”

AI Adoption: Success Stories and Industry Challenges

32:41 to 34:36

Discussing varied AI adoption experiences and the state of AI effectiveness.

“So we're understandably seeing mixed messages across the market around this AI capability to adoption piece.”

The Impact of AI in Medicine: Dog Cancer Case Study

34:37 to 39:10

Insight into a case where AI was used for innovative cancer treatment in a dog.

“First of all, it's incredible that those tools exist today, that he can even, because the dog, let's just be clear, that the dog's cancer is not cured, right?”

Human Roles in an AI-Driven Future

39:11 to 41:41

Exploring the evolving relationship between humans and AI technology.

“Mads, which bits would you pick up on from this little smorgasbord?”

Defining AGI: DeepMind's Contribution

41:42 to 42:00

Analyzing DeepMind's approach to defining and measuring AGI capabilities.

Defining AGI: Cognitive Facets and Real-World Challenges

42:00 to 43:40

Explore the complexities of defining Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the challenges AI faces in real-world scenarios.

“They are great engineering labs, open AI, anthropic, incredible engineers.”

Verification in AI: Balancing Innovation and Safety

43:40 to 45:20

Learn about the importance of verifying AI outputs and the critical role of human judgment in AI-enhanced tasks.

“Listen, they're smart enough to get there, Lomax.”

Google Stitch: Disruption in AI Design Tools

45:20 to 47:20

Discover how Google's Stitch is reshaping the AI design landscape and its implications for startups.

“Google just coined the term vibe design.”

The Impact of Non-Compete Clauses on UK Startups

47:20 to 50:00

Examine the recent announcements regarding non-compete clauses and their potential effects on the UK tech ecosystem.

“Yeah, I think you asked some of the right questions, Dan.”

EU Inc: Structural Reforms and Government Initiatives

50:00 to 56:01

Analyze the EU's new corporate framework and government initiatives aimed at fostering innovation and competition.

“announcements we've got two of them we've got the non-competes and eu inc taken together at their word could be significant structural reforms for European startups.”

EU Inc. and Regulatory Challenges

56:01 to 58:14

Discussion on the EU's new entity for harmonizing legislation and the challenges it faces.

“And at one point I was told I could accelerate it if I sent a fax to the registry.”

Travis Kalanick's New Venture

58:15 to 1:01:13

Exploration of Travis Kalanick's new company, Atoms, and its focus on physical AI.

“website, which is very clear and has great mission statements on it.”

Funding Announcements and Market Trends

1:01:14 to 1:02:31

Discussion of recent funding news and upcoming events in the tech and finance sectors.

“big commitment from the British Business Bank.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Lomax Ward:Hello and welcome to Upside, where every week we dig behind the headlines to give you the real news about what is happening in Europe, startups, venture and investing and all that good stuff. This week, it's Mads, Lomax and myself, and we've got a very, very busy docket. Hopefully we can get through it all. We have the inference revolution. We've got the AI enterprise war. The largest investor in the world is a little bit spooked. what AI can do, will do, and how far will it be adopted. We're going to go into that. More business model side swiping from the hyperscalers, so startups, watch out.

0:48Lomax Ward:This show is not investment advice, and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured. Now, starting at the top, GTC, the inference revolution. This week, Jensen Huang told 30 ,000 people that NVIDIA will see a trillion dollars in chip orders in 27, a trillion. Also this week, Tom Tongas from Theory Ventures ran the numbers on what's going on underneath that bet. And he reckons for every dollar the hyperscalers earn from AI today, they're spending 12 to build more capacity. That's around$600 billion in capex this year alone. this is the tricksy bit which I want us to dig into financed by nearly 160 billion in new bond issuance.

1:29Lomax Ward:Bill Gurley another famous Silicon Valley VC is saying the quiet part out loud saying a reset's coming waves create bubbles we talk about this all the time but I think Bill Gurley is somebody to listen to. The Mag7 are now in official correction territory down 10 % from October highs. All the SaaS providers like Salesforce ServiceNow are 25 % off year to date and service software or software ETF is down 20%. So we're watching the greatest infrastructure build out since electricity and the most expensive game of musical chairs in history. Mads, I'm going to start with you on this one. Shall we start with NVIDIA's GTC or where would you like to start, my good man?

2:08I think that's a great place to start. It is one of the most important set piece tech events of the year. Now, last month in February, Jensen Wang, He told the Korean Economic Daily that we'll bring out a chip that will surprise the world. Why did he tell them that? Well, that's because right now the most constrained things in this world of constraints is memory chips. And many of the memory chips get made by Samsung and SK Hynix in Korea. So that's an important place. That's where Jensen went. He spoke with people and with the journalists. And he said, we're going to bring some cool stuff out.

2:42He didn't bring one thing out this week. he brought out three cool chip announcements. The first one was the thing that came out of the acquisition of Grok. Grok they acquired for$20 billion a few months ago. And they're going to bring out the Grok 3 LPU, which is an inference chip. And when you look at the performance on a token per watt basis, so as we know, power is this massive constraint we have. And so you really try and figure out how can you maximize the amount of tokens you can generate with the power you have in these data centers. Well, it generates 35 times as many tokens per watt as a GPU-only basis.

3:21That's your chip from Q3 this year. It was a nice big announcement. He's also announced the Vera Rubin GPU. So that's the next generation of the sort of classical NVIDIA workhorse, the models we can use for kind of the chips we can use for both training and inference. and that the GPU will be 10 times as performance per watt as Blackwell, which is the current state of the art, five times on performance, 10 times lower cost per token. And so that's seen as a major jump. I mean, you think about it, you know, there's some places in the world where we think, oh, gosh, if you can improve 10, 20, 30 % a year, that's pretty good.

3:59If you can double, that's phenomenal. We're talking about a 10x from chip generation to chip generation. This is not marginal stuff, is it? No, no, no, no. These are big leaps. These are massive leaps. And, of course, that feeds into all the stuff we're talking about with CapEx and what happens there. Because if you've got a ton of expensive kit you bought last year and you're still writing that off and you get a new kit coming out this year that's 10 times as performant, well, what does that do with the economics? Yeah. Yeah. And then the third thing, just to round that off, is the Feynman chip, the sort of 2028 generation.

4:30And it feels like that's a little bit further out, but it's quite exciting because it's going to be the first SOP 2 nanometer chip produced. TSMC is making it. They're talking about stacking the chips in a 3D way. So you're going to have a kind of silicon on top of silicon. You're going to have eight times the rack density of Rubin. So you can cram a lot more stuff into the same amount of space. Again, we know the data centers are all the premium right now. So stacking much more into the same amount of space, making those same chips much more performant. We're really seeing a dramatic improvement in the performance here.

5:09Lomax Ward:It's incredible. I mean, this is kind of the NVIDIA is now looking in the inference territory. What would you pick up on here? No, I think I just think just when people, I mean, not people in the industry, but perhaps outsiders still were wondering where the peak was for NVIDIA. you know jensen pulls out you know and shows a very very clear compelling roadmap for for the future and for the business predicting what one trillion revenue and or one trillion purchase orders in 2027 so yeah in a way just when it's not it's not i wouldn't call it a rabbit out the hat moment because it's clearly not you know a surprise in that sense um but it's well they were booking 500 they were booking 500 bill weren't they so they basically doubled their doubled their outlook is my is my yeah so so you know they keep um they they have a you know the current generation of llms have been trained um on the backbone of nvidia and you know ai going forwards will be run on the backbone of um nvidia in the real world you know in context of inference so you know hats off to these guys one um not not site not definitely not sideshow but other thing that perhaps Mads didn't touch on is the NVIDIA and StarCloud announcement.

6:20So we like StarCloud in this pod, I think, at least I do, because the founder of it is an English dude, and he's building something that's probably a very un-European, which is something very, or historically un-European, which is clearly a massive, massive, big swing, kind of moonshot company, which is putting data centers in space and has generated, I think. Because Jensen used his video to kick off, didn't he? Exactly, which is, I think it's amazing. remember by the way star cloud is basically a seed stage startup right i know i think there's probably a big round to happen that hasn't been announced yet but you know what i mean like this company is very very young philip only started posting on on socials about did he know do you

6:59Lomax Ward:think well i mean did he know that it was going to be used at the beginning of the conference and what an amazing thing if you're watching it and then all of a sudden i think i think yeah i think he had the inside i'm assuming they did you know i mean some of some of the friends of ours were early into that. I think it was a Y Combinator company. Some of our friends invested early in that company. A lot of our friends passed on that company because they thought it was batshit crazy, you know, which, you know. Moonshots, baby. Moonshots, baby. Mitchell moonshots. But interestingly, look, he's now being taken very seriously.

7:26I think it probably helps that, you know, Elon has now made this as a central proposition of the SpaceX story going forwards. Or at least it was a convenient narrative under which to roll XAI underperforming into SpaceX. But still, sorry, just going back to the substance of this, the announcement is around unveiling a space-optimized version of the Vera Rubin AR platform. So the data centers in space narrative or story is around inference. It's not around training, right? So clearly, we have a lot of announcements and push towards inference at NVIDIA. This is effectively an adjunct to that. So exciting times indeed.

8:06I mean, how many companies that are that young get their name up in lights alongside the top, you know, three, whatever company in the world at one of the big, you know, their marquee conference. So I think it's very, we all see lots of startups get their name on that frigging thing in New York, right? The NASDAQ thing, whatever it is. But this is an impressive thing.

8:32Lomax Ward:So, Mads, anything else that you'd pick up on here before we move on? Yeah. Come on, guys. Let's see more of it. Yeah, no, I'm with you. I think it's a lovely story. I'm still not sold on data centers in space, but who cares? It's a lovely, lovely story, and we're going to see what happens. Mads, anything else before we move on? Well, I mean, I think maybe just worth stopping up and just reflecting on the meteoric rise of NVIDIA. And the question everybody slips is, of course, this has been the bellwether of this bull AI market. can it continue? For how long can it continue? And what Jensen is saying, look, we are no longer just a GPU company or a chip company.

9:11We're a platform company. We've got five layers to our business. We've got the chips. We've got the networking. We've got the models. We are also looking at energy and we're looking at applications. It's a full stack. And that five layer cake is what he's saying is what's going to present us with the opportunity as a business to keep growing into the future, keep growing earnings, and therefore NVIDIA will remain a good investment. And if you try and unpack those five layers a little bit, well, he's certainly got the chips. You know, we've got more than$200 billion in annual run rate revenue now growing very fast.

9:45He's also good at networking. There was the Mellanox acquisition. That's delivering more than$10 billion per quarter in revenue now. It's a massive business. He's got the model side, where there's sort of an Android play. They've got the Nemotron Coalition. They're working with Mistral and others on models. That's less of a monetizable part of the business right now and looks more like something that can drive hardware revenue. On the energy side, he's building reference architecture for data centers to make them energy efficient. And he's actually, they have been investing in energy generation, but again, it's a rounding error in the business right now.

10:22And then there's the whole application side, which again, looks mostly like it's driving GPU sales. So if you unpack it a bit, NVIDIA still very much feels like a hardware and semiconductor company, but it's certainly a very big one. And so the question, of course, is can it keep growing? Is this a buy right now? How should you think about it? Is it drives the market? If NVIDIA is a buy, the market might be a buy, right? It's such a big part of the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. Today, it is priced like the market on earnings. So about 21 times forward earnings. And that is roughly like the S &P 500 at large.

11:03But the S &P 500 at large doesn't grow 73 % a year. So you look at that and that sort of screams, gosh, might this be a buying opportunity? And I think that's where we get some kind of a level of maybe just cognitive dissonance. You're looking at this thing that's kept growing and growing and growing and everybody's saying, look, you know, four close to$5 trillion value. Could this go to 10? Is that possible? If you look at how it compares to some of the other Mac 7s, Apple is priced at a much higher premium, 29 times forward earnings. Meta is a little lower, but Amazon is also higher. So it's actually, it looks cheap compared to some of these other big businesses.

11:45And so what would have to be true for there to be upside in the business? Well, if they can maintain their margin. And if the hyperscaler capex meets and exceeds the 600 billion this year without major cancellations in the backlog, it seems like there's upside in the stock. Could it go to 200, 225? Possibly. This is not investment advice. Well, I think we have that disclaimer baked in now at the intro, don't we? But I just, we know everybody, like if so many people we know are invested in NVIDIA shares, And this is the question they have is, can it keep going up? Should we cash out now? What should we do?

12:25So that's the bull case. The bull case is actually just if they do what they said they would do, it feels like there's upside in this one. The bear case is that the CapEx decelerates. And we're going to unpack that. I know you had Gurley on the docket. We're going to unpack that. If the CapEx decelerates, if that$1 trillion backlog starts to see cancellations, if the competition in inference from Meta and from Google's homespun and homegrown silicon starts to eat into that inference market share, then you could see a downturn in the value. So that's really the risk that three of the biggest customers, the big hyperscalers, you know, half the receivables, they are building their own competitors.

13:14Lomax Ward:Yeah. Interesting. What a fascinating time to be alive. I want to talk more about AI models because we're seeing across the three big labs, we're seeing three new business models that I'd like to unpack. We've got OpenAI who've just told staff to kill all the side gigs. So Simo and Altman are refocusing the entire company around coding and business users, admitting that trying to do too much is basically putting them on the defensive. Anthropik's going the other way. Instead of selling to enterprise, they're now looking for distribution through PE players like Blackstone. So they're looking to embed a Palantir-style joint venture that would get clawed, distributed into all of those PE portfolio companies, turning thousands of those businesses into instant distribution.

13:58Lomax Ward:Very smart. and then we've got Mistral on our side of the pond, the French lab. We shouldn't dismiss. They showed up at GTC this week with Forge, which is a platform that allows the enterprise to train their own models from scratch on proprietary data. And they're on track to pass a billion in ARR this year. So centralised, partner, hand over the keys, all three. What's in this kind of new model set, Lomax? Can you set the scene for us? Well, I would, I mean, they're all fundamentally going after the same thing. As in, like, I wouldn't call it three different business models. I would say there's three different routes to market and ways to go about things, distribution methodologies or channels.

14:35But ultimately, what's happening here, all of these people are going for enterprise, right? Anthropica have already, like, leaned heavily into enterprise already. Mistral were heading that way. Well, they started, obviously, with their LeChat chatbot. And OpenAI, we know, has been a bit of a buggers muddle, excuse my French, of various different. I've never heard that phrase before. probably your grandfather would have, would have, but, um, has, had definitely been a smorgasbord of slightly disparate different products with horrible nomenclature, as we know, and they seem to be maybe coalescing now on enterprise.

15:09So the single unifying thing, um, is that they're going after enterprise. Um, they're doing it in different ways as you alluded to. Right. And so, you know, one example is what Anthropic is doing now with Blackstone finding a route to market to go to their, well, Blackstone obviously being one of the biggest pro-elective firms in the world with tons and tons of assets in its portfolio, right? So there's a big kind of, there's a big channel partner there, as it were, with Blackstone looking for optimizations within their portfolio. So for me, it's actually all the same thing. I don't know if Mads, you have a different take on that.

15:44No, I think you're broadly right. The race has shifted from developing model capability to deployment and distribution. and you are seeing slight variations for the three companies. I would say everybody's looking at enterprise, but the big play for open AI as I see it is still whether they can unlock the consumer market. The trillion dollar question for them is whether they can make ad monetization work. If they can monetize the long tail, there could be a super interesting company here. Without ad monetization, I think they're in a world of hurt because I think if all they're doing is try to do exactly what Anthropic is doing and just try and go head to head with them, saying, yep, great, you've got cloud code, we have codex, you are selling to enterprise, we're going to try to sell to enterprise.

16:30Without that differentiated strategy that looks at the consumer side, I think OpenAI will lose majorly here. That's a really great point. Do you think ad monetization will work? That's the trillion dollar question. Because nearly one in seven people on the planet are users of ChatGPT. Is it 800 million users now? Is that right or not? Yeah. Yeah, and if they can't monetize the 95 % of them, and if they'll never be able to monetize them, then I think it's a really difficult position they're in.

17:01Lomax Ward:I don't buy the ad model. I think it's too commoditized. I think while you've got extremely powerful competitors, I don't know, unless everybody does it, I don't know how you survive in that world. And Codex, so Codex now is what, 2 million weekly active users, roughly 4x growth year to date. So Codex is on a bit of a move now within OpenAI. Yeah, I mean, but it's going to be number two. Yeah, that's true. And don't forget OpenAI trades and valuations. It's funny, you go and raise, you know, Sam, they go and raise the money at the higher valuation, et cetera, and then they're like, that's not, you can't pitch to be number two, right?

17:37It doesn't work. 100%. You have three times the valuation. You're spending much more money. You can't be number two. So I think they have to have a differentiated strategy. I don't envy Sam right now. I think he's got a really difficult year ahead of him, which of course is why we're seeing the code red.

17:51Lomax Ward:Mbaz, they've got government. I mean, what, roughly 50 % of Palantir's revenue is from government. So do you think that would be a rescue package for OpenAI? Jesus, I don't think a rescue package is a lot. No, it's not. It's not a life raft, no. I'm not proposing that the company will disappear. No, no. Okay, I'm just saying the trajectory they were on now, there was a thought that it could become the first bona fide trillion dollar private company, right? And now it looks like SpaceX, might that kind of look like it is right before the IPO and all that stuff. But that OpenAI could genuinely go and raise a private round with a trillion-dollar price tag, that seems very questionable right now.

18:34I mean, who is going to underwrite that? So the growth rate is there, right? And they're probably now run rate 30 billion ARR. But they need to show a very coherent, compelling story to get to 300.

18:48Lomax Ward:And they need to, no? That that's this new strategy that this is the beginning of that narrative, right? This is the, we're going to focus. We're going to condense. We're going to do things slightly differently. Okay. So you're in, in, in Sam's shoes, you would abandon the consumer strategy. You just say, we're not going to monetize it. It's not going to work. And then try and, and focus on going after Anthropic. Well, that's what he's doing. Is it? Well, the question for the room, how much, how far have they got down the ad strategy for consumer? And I personally don't believe this can work. I don't see how any friction within a standard chatbot for the everyday person is going to fly.

19:30Lomax Ward:They're going to just move. It's like, who is the best search engine? They're going to move. They're going to flip out a Gemini. I love the certainty you have and that you bring to this. For me, it's the trillion dollar question. If it doesn't work, I think the company's in a world of hurt. Really? That's all I'd say. But I don't think we can know until they've really given it a good go. Yeah. And almost like if you go back to the blank canvas and be like, you have whatever the number is, 850 million, what is it, Mads? Weekly active users, monthly active users, whatever the thing is. If you can figure out a way to monetize that in this new world, then that's a pretty unique, compelling thing, right?

20:10And so that's the game changer. And actually in a way, Matt and way, Dan, you're right. Like advertising revenue is the probably easiest thing to think of. But I actually think about it from a new world perspective. They need to think through there may be other ways to monetize that user base. Right. And if they get that right, then it's pretty compelling. Well, at the end of the day, I think, you know, either the users pay or the users of the product. and if users of the product, that's some kind of ad model, referral model, something. Google did it and then Meta managed to do it on a slightly smaller scale.

20:50They showed how you could build these businesses and how powerful they are. There's so much money in monetizing users. So is it going to work? Well, I certainly wouldn't say it's 100 % certain that it will. I think if it doesn't, they're in the world of hurt. And if all they're doing now is saying, we're going to pull back from monetizing that, we're just going to go after enterprise, copying the anthropic strategy, I think they're just. Yeah, you're right. And there's also incredible, I mean, I know OpenAI have hired a bunch of these people, but there's incredible talent and retained knowledge and know-how and muscle in how to monetize user bases, right, in Silicon Valley.

21:22I mean, it's the backbone of the whole freaking industry.

21:26Lomax Ward:Well, I never thought that Facebook would last this long, and that's their model. I mean, I logged into my, I haven't been on Facebook since 2014. Yeah, but you know, that's not, I mean, Facebook isn't, Facebook, the actual Facebook product is an absolute mess, but the um but mark it's just a marketplace it's just it's just one big advert i logged into my wife's the other day while i was flicking through with permission by the way before i get in trouble um we were talking about something and she showed me something and i was flicking through and i haven't looked i haven't looked at the platform in a long time i was like oh my god what a what i mean i know this isn't there you know it's whatsapp and insta and all the other products that are making the real money but what an unholy mess and people are still tolerating it So I might be wrong.

22:05Lomax Ward:Maybe people will tolerate ads within ChatGPT. I think we've moved beyond that kind of 2010 play. I think users are much more discerning and technically savvy now. That's why I'm challenging you, Dan, to be like, well, just if you can't chuck adverts down the channel, down to the 850 million people, that doesn't mean your ability to monetize that is dead. right i don't know just think outside the box yeah it's got to be something else pretty compelling though if the users are the product anyway listen let's move on because i want to talk about another i know we're upside and this is a bit doomy and gloomy but bear with me so to tee up the world's largest investor in the world is spooked so the broad question is should we be or how should we think about this nicolai tangent is the man who runs norway's 2.2 trillion dollar sovereign wealth Fund told Bloomberg this week that markets are showing a level of complacency about the Iran war that his scenario analysts can't explain.

23:07Lomax Ward:The fund's stress tests say that an AI bubble burst could wipe out 35 % of its value. So as we know, SaaS is getting crashed. And as we've mentioned already, the hyperscalers are spending$12 for every one they earn so far. A third of the S &P 500 is seven stocks. And those seven stocks are an all-in bet on AI that hadn't quite paid off yet. Still a work in progress. Over the past decade, the sovereign funds equity portfolio shifted from 37 % US to around 55 % US. So they're very big on the US. They own, interestingly, they own around 1.5 % of all listed equities worldwide across 7 ,200 companies.

23:49Lomax Ward:And when you're that big and you're that indexed, you are the market. You can't sell without moving prices against yourself, I would argue. So the warning itself is the action. What happens when complacency meets concentration is the broad theming here. What would you do in issues? What can we learn? How should we think about this? Mads, anything in this for us to unpack? For several years now, we have been saying that this is not like 2000. This is not like the dot-com boom. In the dot-com boom, there was debt everywhere. People were levered up to their eyeballs. No real revenue. No real revenue, right?

24:30People were measuring eyeballs. It was a silly thing. But this was different. There's real revenue. The capex is financed out of real free cash flows. The people that are spending money have money to spend. Much less leverage. It's much more solid. Very different. And in 2024, that was certainly true. The hyperscalers, they funded the AI from operating cash. Now fast forward to 2026. Amazon is turning free cash flow negative. Okay, so they can no longer fund the CapEx build out out of the free cash flow of the rest of the business. Alphabet's free cash flow is down 90%. Meta is near zero. Meta is near zero.

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25:10They're not even making money on AI. They don't even really have an AI business. Okay. So what's interesting here is as you look into 26 and 27, we are seeing negative free cash flow for the hyperscalers. And that, of course, changes the narrative because, well, it might not be 2000, but it's certainly not 2024 either. Alphabet recently issued 100-year bonds. Yeah. Right? So whole new stories are coming up. And this is some of the thing that I think you go to Niklas Tangen from the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. He says, I'm a huge fan of the AI. It's massively increasing our productivity. I believe in this, but I look at these numbers and the leverage and what's happening.

25:55And as an investor, it worries me. Yeah, I've always been of the mind that as soon as this level of credit goes in, this level of debt is being,

26:06Lomax Ward:I saw, was it, who was it raised a 20,$25 billion bond? Was it Salesforce? I think it was Salesforce had a 20,$25 billion bond sale. Nomax, which aspect of this would you pick up on? So I think it's an interesting point. Like Mads is totally right. And the head of Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund has a massive point. It's kind of classic. He's basically saying this is a sort of late cycle. People are so bullish and enthusiastic. They're almost mispricing actually some quite structural risks that are now creeping in into the market. Well, he was focused on the Iran war. He's using this as kind of the warning point.

26:49He was focused on the inflation that will come out of the Iran war, which is a good point. And remember, when you have inflation, you have rates going up, you have a flight from equities into debt instruments, right? Because they're paying higher coupons. So that will potentially cause a rotation, which will then soften valuations. And then Mads has just articulated it very well. Ultimately, Amazon's now running free cash flow negative for the first time, like probably ever, since it actually became a big company. Well, since the 90s. Yeah. So, I mean, this is now the time. and the debt on these projects is only higher and higher.

27:32I am sorry.

27:34Lomax Ward:You know, we should be wary. We should watch. Yeah, we should watch. I mean, I don't know what this means for, well, we do know what it means for European venture, but I don't know as it cascades through our worlds, what this means at this level. I don't know what other things we could uncover and discuss. It just feels like something we should be mindful of. Be careful. These companies used to be the greatest cash machines ever built, right? And now they're borrowing money to plow into data. Because they're running out of, you know, haven't got the free cash flow anymore. The only kind of interesting observation, which maybe you guys picked up on, is that Apple is basically sitting out this huge capex.

28:19I love that graph.

28:21Lomax Ward:The graph of all the crazy hyperscalers and then Apple just bumbling along. They're still doing their share buybacks. They took a big license out of Gemini. They're quietly strengthening their own chips for their own devices. Actually, pretty impressive performance. The M5 now delivers four times the performance of the M4. Actually, Apple quietly continues to operate in the old manner. Maybe it's the right strategy. Maybe it's not. I was looking at all the on-device with the M5. Pro-Up chipset or the on-device AI. It feels like an infrastructural tee-up for running on-device algorithms. I think there's something in.

29:06Lomax Ward:As you know, I'm a big Apple fan. I've always thought the Siri will one day become useful. And it feels like there's this kind of network play that's going on with this new chipset. Yeah, it is genuinely fascinating. And I'd say the other side of the coin, because it's easy to be a bit doom and gloom. We were talking about the Swan Memo, Black Swan Memo a couple of weeks ago, right? And you write one of those and you look smart if it comes to pass. And if it doesn't come to pass, everybody forgets about it. Now, Bill Gurley is somebody I think we all respect a lot. And he talks about these bubbles and bubbles in the past.

29:40And they're always, you know, because there is something good, but then people get greedy and in over the skis. And the question is, is that where we are now? The truth is, revenue growth has been extraordinary. That's the big difference between now and the dot-com boom. I mean, we've seen how open AI and Anthropic have grown revenue and all the others. It's just phenomenal. And yes, it's still not enough to justify the full CapEx build-out, but at the growth rates we have, is it conceivable that one could get there? And you probably don't need revenue to grow much more than five-fold from where we are now for things to start hanging together.

30:18And so fivefold, does that sound crazy? Well, we know what Anthropic did last year. You know, the industry in a couple of years will probably be five times the size it is now. And if it then grows another five times after that, well, suddenly this starts to become a really, really big market. And I think we're just all looking at it and saying, could it grow five times from here? Yeah, that feels eminently plausible given how impactful This is five times more after that. So that's 25 times from where we are now. Maybe that's toppy. But there is certainly a scenario that you can paint that actually this is a justified CapEx buildout.

30:54This is justified investment because of the size of the opportunity in front of us. So I think the question is, will the revenue grow fast enough to catch up before the market loses patience and says to the hyperscalers, guys, we're going to slash your equity price in half. The cost of raising this money is going to be so expensive now that you can no longer justify the massive CapEx build out. And I think you go back to the big, I think the big D word is depreciation. Because I think like, if you build your data center, you incur the CapEx for that, you buy the chips, and then you need to replace them.

31:31If you need to replace them within, I don't know, 24 months or 12 months now, if it compresses from the current of companies, suddenly the revenue you need to generate to pay back both the initial capex and then the reinvestments you need to make to rip out and replace your chipsets, suddenly you need to be making a lot more revenue to justify and pay back the capex. If that happens, you will have incinerated an incredible amount of capital. the question is whether you will have built a business with some staying power. Is being a hyperscaler a moat in the future? Going back 15 years, before we knew what a hyperscaler was, when cloud became a thing, people were looking at Amazon and they were looking at Google and they were saying, is this a real business?

32:20You used to just, right? And it turned out that was an incredible business. So are we seeing this new business here as an embryonic thing? Now, I think it is a genuine question. And I think the people that are asking the question are generally right to do so. It is by no means a foregone conclusion. But I don't think you can write it off either.

32:40Lomax Ward:Well, it leads very neatly into our next topic, which is effectively along the lines of what can AI do? What is it doing right now? And how far will it go? What will the adoption cycle be like? So we're understandably seeing mixed messages across the market around this AI capability to adoption piece. This week, we saw this lovely story about a Sydney tech entrepreneur who treated his dog's cancer and he has zero medical training. He was using chat GPT to brainstorm a treatment plan, AlphaFold to create the protein structures and a university lab to manufacture a custom mRNA cancer vaccine for the dying dog.

33:21Lomax Ward:and the tumor shrank 75%. Hopefully he's still alive at that time of release. It cost him$3 ,000 and took two months. Same time, we saw DeepMind this week published a paper admitting the industry can't agree on how to measure AGI. So they've proposed a 10-dimension framework and are now paying researchers$200 ,000 to help build the tests. Also this week, we saw Deloitte found that 5 % of SMEs that are using AI are seeing no value. so we've got this kind of we've got all of these i know there's a bit of a disparate story set here but we're seeing lots of ai usage adoption uh i guess the smartest lab in the world can't define what intelligence is 95 of small businesses can't really use ai we're going to see that play out in 2026 this this feels like the story from from creation to adoption that we're going to see this year uh lomax first up in your world tell us tell us more about the dog and the cancer everyone loves the like a companion animal story um and you know first of all so first of all okay big picture this is an amazing thing so there's like there's obviously been a lot of hyperbole in the press around this and on social media about how the citizen scientist use ai to basically treat and cure his dog's cancer, right?

34:43First of all, it's incredible that those tools exist today, that he can even, because the dog, let's just be clear, that the dog's cancer is not cured, right? The dog is still going to die of cancer. It's probably had its life extended by two to three months, which, you know, actually, like quite a few cancer treatments when you get into the, actually, that's all they do. They aren't necessarily curative, right? So it's amazing that this person has done it, but, you know, let's put it in perspective. The dog is not completely cured. It's going to die of cancer.

35:12Lomax Ward:To be candid, he took the dog from a rescue home knowing that this poor creature had cancer and was just going to look after it in its last day. So this was a known thing. But this is incredible that he can do this, right? Because if he can do this with, you know, a few hours a day and a few grand, And imagine what the big, well-funded institutions can do. And this quietly is happening already, right? It just takes time because clearly, you know, to get these therapies into patients, you need to run clinical trials. And they'd cost a lot of time and they cost a lot of money and take a lot of time, like hundreds of millions and, you know, one, two, three years potentially.

35:59Now, what's really cool, I think, is this is the mRNA technology, which is the technology kind of popularized by the COVID vaccines, because obviously Moderna in the US and BioNTech in Europe, which is one of the biggest success stories in European tech that a lot of people often forget, had this ability to create these mRNA vaccines, which you can create in silico, like in a computer, pretty rapidly, right? When you sequence the tumor, you get the data from that, and then you run a bunch of bioinformatics and machine learning and AI on that to find out specific antigens that you want to go after on specific proteins.

36:38And then you can code the mRNA and then inject the person to train their immune system to fight these specific cancer cells. That was seen with COVID already. That's phenomenal. That is getting better and better and better. So like AI is gonna play a huge role in that. So I think it's a wonderful story. I mean, by the way, there are no approved mRNA vaccines yet, right? There are some in late stage phase three, in the last stage of clinical trials. So we still have, you know, to get this done at mass scale to actually affect human lives takes time. But it's going to happen. Absolutely. And it's very exciting.

37:19Lomax Ward:When I read the story, it made me think about personalized medicine. It made me think, obviously, every body is different. and made me think, well, how far are we away from a very, very personalized medical? We're not that far away. I mean, you know, there can be complexities, right? Because if you have someone with a tumor and the tumor is very deep inside their body, you need to actually extract the cells from that, right? And that can be hard. You know, in my case, the tumor was removed and then we sequenced it and then we managed to run the analysis on that, right? But for a lot of people, you find, especially if you do all these preventative MRI screens now, you might find tumors buried in your liver or in your pancreas and then you need to actually extract that doing an invasive biopsy, which is possible.

37:58But all of this stuff costs a lot of, takes a lot of time and costs a lot of money and puts a lot of pressure on healthcare systems. And if you're in the game of only increasing someone's lifespan by a few months, then people who pay the bills, the insurance companies or the governments might be like, well, it's just not worth it. Because as you said, these are personalized. You then need to do the sequencing and you then need to actually make the individual vaccine. It's not like COVID where once you've made it, You can just manufacture it at mass scale and just give everyone the same vaccine, right?

38:28But we are going to get there despite all of the roadblocks that I've just talked about. And it's very exciting. And by the time we get to our kids' lives, cancer will be predominantly, 90 % of cancers will be dealt with in the same way that we deal with a common cold. That's a big, bold one. If you listen to the dudes in Silicon Valley, they'll say all disease will be cured by 2030. I mean, that's clearly absolute rubbish. But this, if you take cancer, for example, which is obviously one of the biggest, after cardiovascular disease is the biggest killer of people, we will get to that position.

39:04It's just going to be like another 20, 30 years out. You know, it'll be a buzz out of our kid. I can believe that. Probably is my prediction. I can believe that.

39:11Lomax Ward:It does feel in the crosshairs. Mads, which bits would you pick up on from this little smorgasbord? I think it's worth reflecting on just how far we've come in the last three years, where if you remember, some people had the view that it's kind of LLMs, chat GPT, AI, but what was it more than just an expensive autocomplete? And this is, as we can see, a whole lot more than just an expensive autocomplete. It's real intelligence. Now, it's not a principle. And the question is, what is left to do if AI becomes as good as it is becoming and can do all these things? What's left for us to do? And I think that's so interesting to see this collaboration here between what the AI models are doing and then the principal, the person operating those models.

39:59You scale that to everybody in the world. Anyone facing a PhD-level problem now has a path to solve it. It's truly astounding. I marvel at it every day. As the models grow more and more powerful, what is left for us? Well, sort of the four categories we look at, It's judging, it's creating, it's connecting, and it's exploring. Taking them in the reverse order, exploring, it's really pointing the telescope, thinking about where should we look, where should we explore, what are the frontiers we should try to cross. Connecting is all about human relations. One of the things we've seen is, although we've had record players and recorded music for a long time, but live music is bigger than ever.

40:42hundreds of billions of dollars. We go to see live musicians performing because we want to have human connection. And that is going to be a bigger and bigger thing, right? And AI will hopefully give us even more opportunities to say, hey, I can do the drudgery and we can spend more and more time with each other. Creating, giving things form, turning a want into a real thing. Well, when the production is free, the ability to create things is free, the imagination becomes the scarce resource. And taking people's desires, and they could be limitless, and turning them into real things in the real world is very much a human endeavor.

41:20And then there's the judging piece. It's the what should I focus on? It's what should I sign off? It's the surgeon that signs the consent form. It's the investor that commits capital. Now, the AI can be extremely clever at analyzing all kinds of things, but it has no skin in the game and and humans do so those are some of the four pillars that we think will be most important in the years ahead as the ai keeps getting better this might lead nicely into to the agi piece dan

41:48Lomax Ward:i don't know if you wanted to go there next yeah i wanted to know what your thoughts were on on on the the measurement and what deep mind is doing uh if you had any no i mean it's obviously that is kind of from a science from the science of ai deep mind is at the you know front of the front They are great engineering labs, open AI, anthropic, incredible engineers. When it comes to kind of the hardcore science of artificial intelligence, I don't think anybody is further along than DeepMind. And what's really interesting is they said nobody can agree on what AGI is. So let's try and define it. They've done that by mapping out 10 cognitive faculties that are mapped against human baselines.

42:26So sort of saying there are 10 ways we can measure how a human operates from a cognitive perspective. And then we can say how good are humans at those 10 and how does that compare to the AI. And when the AI exceeds what the human can do, well, then we have some kind of AGI. What I found interesting is that the tests are all disembodied. So they're text and images. It's not touch. It's not spatial awareness. It's not physical world test. And if you look at the learning faculties, they're very much about things that are kind of the models can do in the scheme of what we know as an LLM today. Whereas actually, I think so much of what would be required for you to have real AGI would be things in the real world.

43:14One of the things we've seen with these models is that some of the really hard stuff, kind of all the PhD science level stuff, is easy for the LLMs. But some of the stuff that's easy for us, like catching a ball, is still really, really hard for AI models. And so no LLM comes close to a three-year-old's ability to navigate in the real world. And so for me, until you embed those real-world aspects into your AGI definition, you aren't really talking about AGI.

43:46Lomax Ward:Wow. Listen, they're smart enough to get there, Lomax. No, one more thing I would add, which I could probably articulate better if I had more time, but one is around verification of the outputs of AI. And you can go back to this dog mRNA example, right? Is a clinical trial in the case of medicine is basically one big verification exercise, right? to check the safety and the efficacy of what you've done in silico and then in mice or monkeys or whatever you, whatever organ you tested it in. So that is not going to go away. Like this dude can create an mRNA vaccine and inject it in his dog without really like checking it.

44:28But you know, that's never going to change, right? So there's still, there are big opportunities in these kind, And you need to improve the verification exercises that you run on AI. But AI still often spits out and will continue to spit out, especially if we're kind of always improving AI. Things that have imperfections, right? So there's still going to be that. And also, I do think kind of tied to that, there is just AI is amazing for getting 90 % of a job done, right? This is what it's great for in white-collar work. but that final 10 % we should never forget that and there will be a lot of the value is going to come of that right and so the human judgment the human judgment the human polishing you create a piece of content for marketing and you just create it with AI and you put it out there which annoyingly for all of our ears and eyes most people seem to do but you spend yes at half an hour really polishing it honing it removing the LLLisms adding the context and like putting the message the call to actual whenever it's it's a really powerful example of you know man and machine working in in uh in income compatibly but um

45:49Lomax Ward:that is so important these days so anyway well we're gonna let's talk about let's talk about a product which is possibly doing the opposite or the counter to that which is google stitch very quickly yeah uh so it looks like there's some more side swiping at some of the models from the Hype scalers. Google just coined the term vibe design. Don't know if they'll catch on, but we'll see. And if you're a startup in the AI app builder space, you should probably pay a little bit of attention. Yesterday, Google Labs upgraded Stitch into a full AI native design canvas. So you describe what you want your app to feel like, and it generates the high fidelity UI with exportable code.

46:27Lomax Ward:It's free, infinite canvas, voice interaction, instant post typing, ships to an MCP server. So So your design just flows straight into the toolkit that you're working with. So who's in the blast radius here? Well, obviously Lovable. Now they've just hit 400 million ARR. They've just crossed a 6 billion valuation. Fastest scaling European startup we've ever tracked. Even Lovable's head of growth has said that her biggest fear isn't rivals, but it's the platforms with the big distribution. So how this will pan out is yet to be seen. We see many other products that don't encroach, like Google's DocuSign product hasn't really nibbled away much at the DocuSign efforts.

47:09Lomax Ward:But look at their share price over the last year or so. DocuSign isn't doing particularly well, so maybe that's just a matter of time. But Google Stitch, Mads, kick off this one for us. Yeah, I think you asked some of the right questions, Dan. I mean, we talked on the last episode about how nobody writes code anymore. and now Google is trying to collapse the design layer too. And now we get to a point where nobody designs anymore. I think the way Stitch integrates with tools around the ecosystem, you can integrate it directly with Cloud Code with MCP. You can integrate it with all of Google's in-house tools is quite neat, shows they're serious.

47:44They obviously have, as you say, massive distribution. The question is, is this just a distribution play for Gemini or is it their attempt at building a standalone? Right now, it's still too early to say for sure. Lovable is still more capable and I think a more polished product. But I certainly would probably keep me a little bit sleepless at night if I was kind of one of the specialist firms like Lovable. And that was my business model. And I saw Google introducing something as, you know, as good as Stitch is.

48:15Lomax Ward:Yeah. I mean, Lovable have introduced a new business model, I think, haven't they? They're doing something different. Well, so they are trying to go after the model we've seen with Claude Cowork and that we've seen with Perplexity. They launched their personal computer, which is sort of this whole idea of I'll use it as my command console to get work done, not just as a chat bot to ask questions and get answers from, but a place where I upload my documents, my data, and they can then turn data into new presentations and new formats. And it sort of becomes the central hub for my work. And Lovable is going straight after that segment as well.

48:50so they're getting a lot of immediate hate for that as you might you know why there's why what's what's the deal calling this to death now of um lovable um they're getting a lot of hate because i guess um people are saying look you you can't be all things to all people um you need to speak to what you're good at to what you're known for you need to double down on that you're now encroaching on so many other people's turf you're diluting your positioning um on the maybe this is

49:18Lomax Ward:the new world maybe this is the new ai world where you are not as focused and very anti what we talk about as vcs which is focus focus focus maybe you can maybe maybe this is uh maybe this is the new world that we're living in no look and there are precedents right so notion went from docs to workspace um shopify from i guess store builder to commerce platform you know each time you kind of expand you get a bit of pushback and hate and questions around whether you can actually cut it and so we time will tell but it's definitely a sign from lovable mads know that um that they feel that they can't just complete swim in this single feel the heat yeah you feel the heat 100 right gentlemen last but not least on the list is um a little bit of government-ish announcements we've got two of them we've got the non-competes and eu inc taken together at their word could be significant structural reforms for European startups.

50:16Lomax Ward:On Monday, Rachel Reeves used the Mays lecture to announce limits on non-compete clauses, the first time a UK chancellor has explicitly targeted non-competes as an innovation blocker. She framed that alongside the 500 mil in the sovereign AI fund, five bill for the British business bank, and a procurement overhaul designed to make government a launch pad for UK scale-ups, rather than, in her words, a check for global incumbents. Then on Tuesday, European Commission unveiled EU Inc. Again, we've seen a few of these releases of PR, which is the single corporate framework that lets you register a company in any of the 27 member states within 48 hours, fully online, under 100 bucks, with no minimum share capital and no notary required.

51:00Lomax Ward:And then all the notaries are going to do, they must be very upset. And Brussels wants this passed by the year end. but it's super watered down, plagued with pitfalls. So two reasonably big announcements for our world, but will execution meet ambition? Can it? It could be everything. It could be nothing. Lomax, what do you think? So let's maybe focus on Rachel Reid's speech at the so-called Maes lecture that she gave this week. Is that how you say it? Is it Maes, not Maes? Sorry. I thought it was Maes. Maybe it's Maes. Maybe I've been in Portugal too long. I don't know. Portugal is dealing with Maes.

51:33But anyway, obviously, it's not my... Look, I think that this is not just focused on tech, and this was a broader economic competitiveness, productivity speech. I think, you know, actually, interestingly, she did a pretty good job, which I think the Stama government hasn't done a brilliant job of so far, of like, really diagnosing the perhaps bleedingly obvious problems that we have in the UK, which is, as a reminder, you know, low productivity growth since 2008. planning rules have really rationed housing and infrastructure and then a huge accumulation of regulatory barriers that have steadily raised the cost of doing anything at all and or made things doing impossible.

52:12So I think she kind of set that out and set out antidotes to that. Interestingly, in the context of tech, as you alluded to, she just said a few interesting things. So one is she said that the UK will achieve the fastest AI adoption in the G7. so this actually kind of goes back to what we talked about before, is like if you can't develop the models you become the earliest adopter the biggest user, well, you know, God bless her, like fair enough, okay, well if the AI, if the UK can be the biggest and fastest adopter of AI in the G7, I mean I'm suspicious

52:46Lomax Ward:That's not a bad strategy I don't think that's a bad strategy You want to increase productivity, this is what you do then they announced a bunch of money and actually gets the backdrop of European governments announcing financial incentives for startups and generally getting laughed at by the Americans, because, you know, in the case of France, it was about, you know, 10 million euros. She's actually announced two and a half billion across AI and quantum, right? So 500 million for the sovereign AI fund, which you talked about, Dan, and then 2 billion to upgrade the UK's quantum capabilities, including a procurement program to actually spend up to 1 billion buying quantum computers from uk quantum computing manufacturers which is amazing because be the customer government be the customer which is what we've said here a lot don't just you know don't just give out grants like actually become the first customer record which is really really great because again especially in the backdrop of quantum where a number of leading quantum teams have actually left the uk and gone to the us there are still god bless them including in my portfolio So I'm talking my own book here.

53:50Some wonderful, wonderfully talented and dynamic quantum teams still here. And this actually, I think, is a really, really important thing for them that they stay here. And she's actually talked of, you know, 100 ,000 jobs coming out of these initiatives. Right. Interestingly, she then goes on to, I think, undermine herself because she talks about we talked about 500 million. We talked about 2 billion. Then we talk about 13.8 million into the UK's five national quantum research hubs and 12 million into the quantum researchers. I don't, someone needs to work with the government. Is that the coffee fund?

54:21Is that the lunch tab? And when you read it on the government's website, they all have the same level, they're all in the same area, at the same stage of the hierarchy. It doesn't make sense to me. Anyway, I think, look, generally pretty positive things for once from a Rachel Reeves speech.

54:41Lomax Ward:Right. Mads, anything on Reeves or anything on the EU Inc. piece that you'd pick up on? I think the non-compete piece is really interesting. California banned them decades ago. It's probably the single most cited structural reason for why Silicon Valley has the talent velocity it does. We know there is a massive tech sector in the UK and in London in particular, and we know what it can do if that talent can circulate freely between startups. I think this could be the start of a completely new chapter for the UK's tech scene. So I think it's very exciting. I don't think we've seen any specific timelines yet, but certainly something to watch out for.

55:18Always. I'd kick it down the road. But the slightly depressing thing, which always makes me laugh, is that these speeches are often peppered with phrases such as hubs, centres, programmes, you know the ai hub for this the quantum research program for this and you and i know that that's like okay that sounds wonderful in a kind of political speech but when have these things actually done any real good you know i mean it's a it's um it's an optics point more than anything but i feel like they tend to be well not more than optics like focusing on the wrong things but still god bless them they're hot in the right place funny so eu inc think i think is good you know it's just like this is much of the same this is the um single eu entity which will be quick to incorporate and cheap to run and will harmonize a bunch of the european legislations the delaware europe's delaware yeah um and and um you know that's now been kicked off in the legislative process i think they're trying to get it done by next year i think but you know there are going to be there's some pretty entrenched um lobbies they're fighting against that interestingly by By the way, guys, I just incorporated a bunch of entities in Delaware and it didn't take me 24 hours.

56:32It took me quite a few days. And at one point I was told I could accelerate it if I sent a fax to the registry.

56:38Lomax Ward:You know, I thought it was only the NHS that had fax machines. I know, I was like, exactly. So maybe it's not the hallowed turf that we thought it was. But I know we always think that everything in the States is paved with diamonds and gold. I mean, that's how it feels to European venture and European startups. The simplest and easiest place to, I mean, maybe some of the Baltic countries, but the UK is still an incredibly easy place to incorporate a company with a laptop and a credit card. Although I would say it's got harder. Three years ago, it used to be really simple. Now, having incorporated some things recently, I've noticed there's a few more questions, a few more KY.

57:18It doesn't happen automatically. It used to be automatic. Now they go away and run some kind of KYC or something. So, you know, that's it's not cosmic.

57:27Lomax Ward:It's not a cosmic shift. No, but going back to the beginning of what I said at Reeves' speech is, you know, this kind of steady, like incremental layering on of new regulations and rules every year. I felt incorporating a company in the UK three to four years ago literally was, you know, laptop, credit card, 20 minutes done. now it's like laptop credit cards half an hour 40 minutes a bit more form filling and then wait two days to actually get the confirmation i think there's a there was a fraud challenge wasn't there there was there was some other other of course like if you if you can incorporate a company with a credit card and laptop in 20 minutes you know you're opening yourself up to potentially um that kind of thing but you know still good anything more on the on the euing i'm slightly anxious that it's not going to roll out in a way that's going to work anything on the eu it'll get it'll before we move on.

58:13It'll get watered down. It'll get watered down. That's the problem. And the problem is the EU Inc. website, which is very clear and has great mission statements on it. And actually not more than just mission statements. It has really good detail as to what the...

58:25Lomax Ward:But just to be clear, though, Max, we've got EU Inc., which is the movement, the Andreas Klinger et al. movement. And then there's EU Inc., which has been adopted by the EU as the name of the... You go to the movement's website, which outlines what the corporate structure will look like, what the rules would look like, what the employee share option scheme, which is kind of a separate but, you know, connected point. Well, what it should look like. Correct. This is what they posit will work. And, you know, it's exactly. And if that starts to get watered down and pared back, and we talked previously about some of the reactions from the incumbents on this, you know, there's the Labour lobby that don't like the fact that the employees are going to have less say on some of the more kind of continental jurisdictions where employees have a big say in how companies are run um yeah they're going to fight some um it's tin hats on for them they're going to need to really push it through yeah okay um lovely lovely gentlemen um any deals of the week anything happening this week mad you got dinner the week yes so we saw travis come out of stealth not the band, we're not talking about the UK band here.

59:38Travis? We're talking about Uber founder Travis Kalanick who has been running Cloud Kitchens. So he's been eight years in stealth and he wasn't really in stealth because he was running Cloud Kitchens and had raised more than a billion dollars to make automate the making of food and people were scratching their heads a little bit and sort of saying what is all this about? Well he came out of stealth over the last week with a company called atoms. And the whole idea is to look at three verticals within physical AI in food and hospitality, in transport, and in mining. That's the new head scratchers.

1:00:18How are these three things connected? Travis is saying it's all about specialized robots, not humanoids. And it's all about having things and giving intelligence wheels to move and transport and do things in these different spaces. Now, the puzzle for us, as I said, is why he combined the three in one company. We're big believers in physical AI. We try and invest in it through a portfolio of companies, not squash everything into one business. He's taking the opposite approach. He wants to do all of it within his company. Why does it all matter? We could say, well, he is one of the greatest operators of his generation.

1:00:52The thing he did to build Uber was a superhuman feat and clearly a company that today dominates its industry and sector. And the question is whether he can repeat that in his new space. If he can, Atoms is going to become a very, very important company. But I think the jury is out whether this will really work. I've never bet against him. And there was this week, gentlemen, a certain announcement from a UK fund manager around a big commitment from the British Business Bank. Who was that? Was that? They sound awesome. I know so congrats guys on a 50 million pound anchor commitment from the British Business Bank is that right

1:01:33Lomax Ward:that's right yeah and just levering up all the private capital your fund 3 correct hopefully more announcements to come excellent huge chapeau to you really important focus on obviously physical AI is a big theme for you guys right yeah And just for the record We were in there before it was cool We were doing this before You were in there when it was called Industry 4.0 at some point a few years ago Wow yeah the names may change But the innocents are Protected But guys huge congratulations I can be the You know the doomsayer When it comes to Rachel Reeves And you guys We love the British government Well, yeah, lots to do and very exciting times.

1:02:26Lomax Ward:Thank you for that, Lomax. Gents, anything else happening this week? Anything we need to know about? Anything in the diaries? So what's coming up in the week ahead? Discord is starting their IPO roadshow, targeting a Nasdaq listing,$15 billion valuation. Do you know what that used to sound like a lot of money? $15 billion, it's almost like a... It's funny. Almost like, yeah, how the world has changed. Indeed. Indeed. We've got KubeCon in Europe, so it's the largest cloud native conference in Europe. I think at least a few of our fan teams will be there. And there are a couple of other conferences and things going on.

1:03:03But no major central bank meetings that I can see.

1:03:08Lomax Ward:Didn't the Fed announce a rate steady? Did they cut? They cut. Despite all the shenanigans going on globally and the expected okay well we'll see how that turns out uh lovely gentlemen thank you so much for your time and we'll catch you next week goodbye see you the next one

From the publisher

This week on Upside, Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen of SuperSeed and Lomax Ward of Outsized Ventures unpack a moment where AI infrastructure, enterprise adoption and market risk are all moving at once.

Nvidia is laying out a path toward a $1 trillion AI market, driven by major advances in inference performance.

At the same time, hyperscalers are investing at unprecedented levels — with AI capex increasingly supported by debt rather than free cash flow. But the real shift is happening higher up the stack.

The AI race is moving away from pure model performance and toward distribution, enterprise control and monetisation.


This episode explores:

• Nvidia’s roadmap and the scaling of AI infrastructure
• Hyperscaler capex and the return of balance sheet risk
• Why the AI battleground is shifting to enterprise
• OpenAI’s monetisation challenge and strategic positioning
• The growing gap between AI capability and adoption
• Where value actually accrues in the AI stack
• And how hyperscalers are reshaping startup opportunities

This isn’t just another AI cycle.

It’s infrastructure, capital and business models being rewritten at the same time.


Chapters

00:00 Intro02:00 Nvidia GTC and inference leap07:00 The trillion-dollar AI question12:00 Hyperscaler capex and leverage18:00 Models vs distribution23:00 OpenAI’s strategy28:00 Enterprise AI battleground34:00 Market risk and concentration39:00 Capability vs adoption45:00 Where value accrues50:00 Startups vs hyperscalers55:00 Europe policy signals

Upside is a weekly deep dive into the forces shaping European venture, AI, defence and deep tech.

Hosted by:Dan Bowyer (SuperSeed)Mads Jensen (SuperSeed)Lomax Ward (Outsized Ventures)

About Upside

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E712 | Nvidia’s $1T AI Bet, Hyperscaler Risk & The Real AI Battleground | UpsideEUVC · 1 h 4 min
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