In short
European tech and deep tech funding gaps; EIF’s €15bn fund-of-funds to back growth-stage VCs; physical AI rollups (Bezos’ Project Prometheus); China’s tokenized AI inference economy; ARM launching an inference chip; UK Innovate UK strategy overhaul.
Guests (backgrounds)
Dr. Harry Destecroix (PhD chemistry, Bristol; sold Xylo to Novadesk for $800m; founded Science Create; UKRI/STEM charity work; SCVC; raising a $100m second fund; “Chemistry World Entrepreneur of the Year”; openly dyslexic/ADHD). Hosts Lomax Ward and Dan Bowyer (European venture/deep-tech investors; discuss EIF and physical AI).
Key claims
Europe has strong talent/research but capital shortages at seed and growth stages; EIF fund-of-funds should enable larger checks (targeting €200m+ rounds) but may entrench incumbents and face slow government approvals. Physical AI is shifting from software to manufacturing modernization via AI/robotics. China’s “token” economy aims to sell inference cheaply at scale; Western enterprise concerns include security/reliability. ARM’s inference chip signals hyperscalers’ move to full-stack control.
Notable examples
Xylo sale; OpenAI/11Labs mega rounds; Cursor using open models; Kursa choosing a cheap Chinese open-source model; NIST findings on agent hijacking susceptibility; Bezos’ $6.2bn seed for Prometheus; ARM/Meta as first customer; Innovate UK’s 2024 Women in Innovation award fiasco.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOIntroducing Dr. Harry Destacroix
0:45 to 1:53
Host introduces guest Dr. Harry Destacroix and his accomplishments.
“This show is not investment advice and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured.”
Harry's Investment Thesis
1:53 to 3:02
Harry shares his investment thesis focusing on breakthrough technologies.
“I'm going to no doubt pick your brains quite a lot on these topics.”
EIF's 15 Billion Euro Fund
3:02 to 4:30
Discussion on the European Investment Fund's new 15 billion euro fund.
“So here's the questions that I want to kind of throw into the room.”
Addressing the Funding Gap
4:30 to 6:00
Exploration of Europe's funding gap and potential impact of new funds.
“And I think that slowly is changing here.”
The Role of Government in Venture Capital
6:00 to 7:30
Discussion on the role of government funding in European venture capital.
“raised by European venture funds, including the UK, comes from the big five, EIF, British Business Bank, BPI in France, IFO in Denmark, and KFW in Germany.”
Challenges for Founders in Europe
7:30 to 9:00
Challenges faced by European founders in securing adequate funding.
“So your thesis is there are now enough businesses to fund.”
Rethinking Capital Allocation
9:00 to 10:50
The need to rethink capital allocation in Europe for better outcomes.
“You know, it's like hundreds of thousands.”
The Shift in Startup Funding Needs
10:50 to 12:20
Discussion on how funding needs for startups are evolving over time.
“So here it's especially important that we recapitalize things properly from day one.”
Focus on Application Layer and Deep Tech
12:20 to 13:50
The importance of focusing on the application layer and deep tech in Europe.
“which means if you've got a 50 million fund, which is probably a big seed fund in Europe, you cut that up 20 ways, maybe 30 ways.”
Closing Thoughts on European Venture
13:50 to 14:01
Conclusion on the current state and future of European venture capital.
“that still needs, you know, advanced manufacturing.”
Show all 25 chapters
The Capital Challenge in Deep Tech
14:01 to 17:55
Learn about the funding challenges for deep tech companies in Europe.
“It's not just building mega bio AI foundational models and data centers.”
The Need for Private Capital in Europe
17:55 to 21:32
Explore the importance of private capital and its potential impact on the European tech ecosystem.
“Your point, I don't think we're always competing with capital from America.”
Bezos' Prometheus Project Overview
21:32 to 27:29
Discover Jeff Bezos' ambitious 100 billion project focusing on AI in manufacturing.
“So Prometheus is the Greek mythology, is the Titan who created humanity and then stole fire for them.”
China's Token Economy and Global Implications
27:29 to 28:00
Examine the implications of China's new token economy for global markets.
“I don't know what the things are, but I think this is going to be...”
Exploring Chinese AI Token Economy
28:00 to 30:05
Discussion on China's AI token economy and its implications for the industry.
“So the way that I've described this in the descriptors, a new OPEC measured in tokens, not barrels.”
Evaluating AI Models: Cost vs. Quality
30:05 to 33:08
Debate on the trade-offs between low-cost AI models and their reliability.
“So I guess this is a blended way of asking the room, do we believe that buying tokens at scale is possible?”
The Future of Tokens in Tech
33:08 to 36:08
Discussion about the increasing importance and future of token-based economies.
“You know, as Jensen said recently, GTC tokens are the new commodity.”
ARM's Shift to Building Own Chips
36:08 to 39:43
Insights on ARM's strategy to build their own chips and the impact on the industry.
“So the advantage here is really if you ran the money in China, but you're not going to run them up.”
Innovate UK: Strategic Overhaul and Challenges
39:43 to 42:01
An overview of Innovate UK's challenges and recent leadership changes.
“Actually, well, before we get to our predictions, our new section, I want to talk about Innovate UK.”
Innovative Leadership in Government
42:01 to 48:30
The discussion focuses on the transition of government funding projects and the impact of having founders in leadership roles.
“And I think at the end of the day, founders coming into organizations which remits are to fund via grants, founders, it kind of makes sense to have some of that experience sitting in.”
Predictions on Revenue and Capex
48:31 to 49:40
Insights into the predictions regarding revenue growth and capital expenditures in the tech industry, particularly among hyperscalers.
Market Dynamics and the Future of AI
49:41 to 55:50
A discussion on market dynamics, the potential cooling off of AI investments, and the implications for future tech revenue.
“Well, it's our first week of predictions.”
Tech Stack Developments and Market Comparisons
56:00 to 56:48
Discussion on the evolving tech stack and market pricing strategies.
“You're starting to sort of get your kind of tech stack locked in now.”
Deal of the Week Insights
56:48 to 57:24
Highlights of significant deals and capital raised in tech.
“He's been long on AI ever since he set up the funds.”
Advancements in Lithography Technology
57:24 to 58:04
Exploration of new lithography techniques and their implications for chip production.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Lomax Ward:Hello and welcome to Upside, where every week we look behind the headlines affecting European venture. Today, Lomax, myself, and we have a very special guest. He's a very accomplished man. Our guest today is founder. He's got his PhD in chemistry at Bristol, knows a thing or two about synthetic molecules, sold his company Xylo to Novadesk for 800 million. Then he built his own incubator, Science Create, active in UKRI, runs a STEM charity for kids, founder of SCVC. going to ask you a bit about that in a second, Harry. Currently raising 100 million second fund, chemistry world entrepreneur of the year, openly dyslexic, ADHD and super fabulous.
0:37Lomax Ward:Dr. Harry Destacroix, round of applause please.
0:50Lomax Ward:This show is not investment advice and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured. Harry, how good or bad did I do on the intro? That was pretty good. We've already raised the second fund. So we closed the second fund 2023-2024. So we're actively deploying that at the moment and we'll be kind of doing fund three this time next year. And what's there? Give us kind of a guiding light on the thesis. I think I know what it is, but tell everyone what the thesis is and what you're investing in. Yeah. So we're kind of, I suppose, as a generalist deep tech investor so we look for breakthrough technologies often they come from uk universities and we're investing anything from quantum gravity centers all the way through to advanced therapeutics so our thesis is really if you solve a hard enough technical problem and you know we have very technical backgrounds very entrepreneurial backgrounds and we get that right we think we can build scarcity value and ultimately and we can use that to create new markets of whole new product categories.
1:56Lomax Ward:Thank you for joining us. I'm going to no doubt pick your brains quite a lot on these topics. Now, starting at the top, we're going to talk about EIF's 15 billion euro funder funds. The title that I've given this, just to tee it up, gents, is Europe finally writes a big check, but is it the right check? Now, we all know there's a funding gap in Europe. We need this here. By some measures, we're about$75 billion off the US by quantum, although I'm not sure where that number really comes from or even why we're comparing. The EIF is launching this$15 billion fund of funds to back 100 growth stage VCs.
2:33Lomax Ward:And it's looking for midsize, the 3 to 600 mil and some mega funds, the one bill plus. And they're looking for a first close this summer. I've read it's going to be probably Q3, which to me means that they don't have all the LP signed. So maybe there's some pensions and institutions that aren't in the pot just yet. They are looking to use this 15 bill to unlock 80 bill in scale-up funding, which obviously we desperately need. Now, the way that I'm reading this, this is simply the EU's push for sovereignty and therefore defence, which I think is fair enough. Would it drive? So here's the questions that I want to kind of throw into the room.
3:07Lomax Ward:Is this going to diversify the ecosystem or just entrench the incumbents that they've been serving? Does that even matter? Thinking more geopolitically, and we're going to talk a bit more about these topics later. China's strategy is open source, and they're now looking to sell tokens and create a token economy. The US obviously has the foundationals, the REAs, the big mega funds. Europe, I've put in the bracket of we should double down on the application layer. So this new EIF fund-to-funds model, could it work? Is it a good idea? Do we need more? Where are the pitfalls? Lomax set more of the scene for us.
3:41Well, yeah, let's put this in context here. There is no doubt in my mind that I think probably you guys would agree that the quality of founders and talent in tech companies has never been better in Europe than it is today. We don't lack that. We've talked about academic institutions.
3:56Lomax Ward:I don't think we've ever lacked that. My take is they just haven't been as in the forefront. The boys and girls have always been here. We've always had from the numbers, more R &D, more scientists, more founders than the US. they just haven't had the showcase but so my take is they're starting to come through and as we spoke about last week 25 of the unicorns last year european so it feels like they were here we just did they just weren't front of house i think historically we've had a bit of a mindset a mindset problem which is that you know the best graduates have gone to you know what someone once called the bermuda triangle of you know law law accountancy and consultancy yeah yeah and that's certainly starting to shift i mean clearly that's also happens in the u.s but i think the u.s has a more entrepreneurial mindset where going into an entrepreneurial profession rather than selling your own business is more celebrated in society.
4:45And I think that slowly is changing here. But the major constraint we've had is capital, right? So, you know, to put it in context, the EU and UK venture raised roughly$60 billion in 2025. Then, you know, the number in the US was$340 billion. The OpenAI raised around a$40 billion at the beginning of last year. I think their next round is mooted to be 60 to 100 billion.
5:07Lomax Ward:Well, they just did a little mini top up of 10 bill, just a cool drop 10 bill. And corporate raised 30 and Andura's about to raise 60. You know, and that's the whole market last year in Europe. So the big problem is capital. And this is a great thing. This is a, the other bit of context is Europe lacks capital at the sort of growth stage. We have actually a lot of pre-seed and seed capital now in Europe, but there's five times the number of rounds of between 20 and 100 million US than there is in Europe. So what the EIF here, the European Investment Fund, is saying is we are now creating a big fund of funds to try and focus on the growth funds that can write these bigger checks.
5:47So I think that is undoubtedly a really good thing. The other context still is that to plug the capital gap, we still rely a lot on government money and European venture. It's still something like 40 % of the capital raised by European venture funds, including the UK, comes from the big five, EIF, British Business Bank, BPI in France, IFO in Denmark, and KFW in Germany.
6:10Lomax Ward:You mustn't dismiss the American subsidies. The American government has subsidized private and public markets for decades. That's what their deficit is. Yes, I don't disagree with that. But the same thing happens in Europe as well, to a certain extent. But when you look at this in this particular direct capital intervention, you know, Europe is much more underpinned by government money than it is in the US. There is a problem there. I think sometimes it's great that they do it, but sometimes the inflexibility they put on venture funds. You do get this kind of monolithic business model because they say this is how big your venture fund should be.
6:50This is how you should deploy it. the one thing i think europe does lack as well is that there's less diversity within these different brands of vc funds and that's because you know it's almost like it's a grant competition to raise a fund in europe sometimes so it'd be great to see more flexibility in these things flexed
7:07Lomax Ward:harry i'm on the inside with some of the european outfits and the bbb quite heavily and they the whole trump russia ukraine gaza israel and the whole on-shoring reshoring french-shoring defense resilience push has really made them change their minds on lots of things yeah i mean i'm hearing it you know with bbb but i'm not seeing it at the moment um you know i've seen it in the top line strategy i mean i mean we still i think the big problem is you've said it there's amazing founders amazing research but actually pre-seed and seed funds are far too small and at the end of the day your fund size is your strategy and i i you know if you look at Europe you've got you know so many sub 50 million funds and there's hardly any 250 and then you get these mega funds so actually I think the big problem we have is that typically you know US founders are raising you know almost series A's level of capital up to seed they're getting this kind of 10 20 million seed and then effectively what you then have is sort of multiple rounds of dilution and and you get into this issue of messed up cap tables and then you've got this problem that you know us funds don't want to come into some of these deals what's great to see here is there is this kind of mention that it's not like the previous one going to these kind of mega billion plus funds there is this kind of 300 to 600 what i hope for those funds is be a 300 million seed fund you know why not fund things properly from day one But the argument was always, wasn't it, Harry, that there weren't enough startups to fund.
8:49Lomax Ward:So your thesis is there are now enough businesses to fund. I don't know. I think there's definitely enough businesses. I think they're just, you know, in the UK, it's terrible. But outside the Golden Triangle, these kind of size of these average pre-seed funds falls off a cliff. You know, it's like hundreds of thousands. So it's a massive problem. But we need to, you know, the companies are there. But if you funded them poorly, the company is then continually fundraising. It can't bring in the talent and it can't achieve kind of the technical progress in the US counterpart. So the science has always been there.
9:22I think we've just chronically underfunded at the early stage. That's actually a really good point, Harry. And one thing, it reminds me of this notion that the goalpost keeps moving. And so we actually, at one point, we did have a major problem of pre-seeding seed in Europe. Then we actually largely fixed that because a lot of the big five that I just talked about and have outside of this major program that we just talked about, have put a lot of money into anchoring seed funds, right? The 50 to$60 million seed funds. And that actually meant there was quite a lot of good capital for the one to three mil seed round, preceding seed round.
9:52And then we talked about this problem, later stage capital, which they're now trying to fix. They've now got to put a finger in another hole, which is basically that market has moved such that good companies don't want or need a three mil to compete globally. A three mil seed round doesn't cut it anymore. They now need to raise 10 mil seed round, which means you need to go. You can you fix the seed round. I mean, ECF has a 5 million max round size still. I mean, I've said this before. Hopefully they're going to waver it. But, you know, so you say, you know, a company wants to raise a 5 million plus pre-seed, seed round, whatever you want to call it, right?
10:28Their first round. I don't even know what these names mean anymore. No, no. You go look at the best companies. They're raising easy 10, 20 million. Some of them are raising a billion seeds. It's like, you know, we're orders of magnitude sometimes away from where it should. And especially the pendulum swing into physical AI to deep tech. This is this there's early technical risk that, you know, that needs to be hit on top of, you know, just your MVP and showing product market fit. So here it's especially important that we recapitalize things properly from day one. The other thing that happens if you undercapitalize early founders, they get into bad habits, they get bad advice, they can't quite get the talents.
11:12These problems compound and they elongate the journey and just add risk. So I think you're actually better off funding things.
11:19Lomax Ward:So Harry, is your thesis that whole kind of being constrained by capital because of AI, because of defense and resilience and the new quantums that we're talking about? We just need to, I guess I'm answering my own question. We just need to think very differently about the pot of time and the facility that the money is going to enable for these founders and just maybe just double everything, I guess. We just need to look across the stack, right? If you've got multi-billion huge growth funds, you know, you've just got to think that you've got to put more money in at the start, more money in the middle, more money at the end.
11:52And I think you'll get higher quality out the other end. The problem is, is all of a sudden you've got too many big funds. You're still in this situation where you've had underfunded companies at seed. And then you're going, well, hang on a minute. If I go compare a Series A in the US and compare to Europe, they've done a lot. Of course, they've done a lot less. they've had a quarter of the capital. So you've got to, I constantly hear that there's no problem with pre-seed and seed. There is, there absolutely is. And that's because our funds are far too small, which means if you've got a 50 million fund, which is probably a big seed fund in Europe, you cut that up 20 ways, maybe 30 ways.
12:29You do half on an initial tick, reserve half a follow-on. All of a sudden you've got these party syndicated rounds, horrible syndicated rounds just means it's just a headache for founders because we can't compare
12:42Lomax Ward:we can't compare i mean you can't you can't if you look at the reas and the big mega funds in the states there's just two different strands of venture but they're not even vc so i don't it's hard when you're having a venture capital bucket conversation when really there's maybe two or three different models that we're aggregating together i don't know i don't know where the lines are i do believe though to my last point in my tee up that europe doubling down on growth for the application layer. Let's worry about America doing all the foundational models and all the big ticket stuff, if you like.
13:16Lomax Ward:China, we're going to talk about later, which is their new AI token economy. I don't know if it's going to take off or not, but I think it's a really interesting model that they can apply that other markets can't. Maybe Europe should do what it does and just focus in on defense, resilience, sovereign, but the application layer of AI, rather than worrying about what is demanding mega massive tickets. I don't know. That's my thesis. I would agree that we shouldn't be going after like mega foundation models and things. I mean, we can't compete on cost of electricity. But in terms of like the hard tech, the deep tech, you know, which is the physical picks and shovels of this stuff, the collecting of the data, that still needs, you know, advanced manufacturing.
13:56You still need deep pockets. And that's why I think, and what's good to see with this EIF money is it is focused towards these areas. It's not just building mega bio AI foundational models and data centers. It is going into that kind of like hard tech, deep tech space. And that does need decent amounts of capital. Yeah, not these kind of billion pound seed rounds because you're building a foundation model. And I think we should be more on the picks and shovels and the applications. I completely agree.
14:23Lomax Ward:Lomax, sorry, we very rudely interrupted you through all of that. No, nothing. I mean, I think it's funny. Harry's raised a really interesting point. I keep going on about, and here I was making the point that we do have a massive gap at the growth stage, particularly in deep tech companies, where they really should be raising to be globally competitive from 100 to 200 million at Series B, Series C. And especially if they're deep tech where, you know, the metrics that you use are different to an application layer company. They can be very, very difficult to get the big checks that in the U.S. people like Founders Fund, 8VC, are very, very happy to write.
15:02I think it's good.
15:02Lomax Ward:Don't you think the sovereign side is going to soften that a bit? And what I mean is what I'm saying, I'm saying that, you know, if you look at the text on this EIF, 15 billion dollar, 15 billion euro funder fund when it's eventually raised, because as you say, it's only been committed on 1.5 so far is they want to be backing funds that actually cut 200 million euro checks into a single round. right so that does mean it's not going to fix the problem that harry just articulated well which is that actually unlike what i was saying we do have a problem at pre-seed and seed which we're not getting around big enough and that is a very good point but at least it's starting to fix this kind of later stage problem where actually deep tech companies that want to go and i have a number in my portfolio that one should really be trying to raise between 50 and two or between 100 and 200 now but they can actually only get 30 to 50 um i think that's um that's something that we really really need for these companies otherwise they're either going to get acquired or they're going to be moving too slowly they won't have the velocity that they need um to hire but it will displace some of the american capital on it i think that's part of their point is that if we can fill the gap and retain ownership for longer then obviously some of that value stays in europe maybe but it puts us on more of a level playing field but remember the american capital is like deeply competitive right remember the 11 labs series a i think a16z got into that round under the noses all the london vcs right by flying it overnight actually have been one of the few vcs to have actually tested the frigging product i mean the bar is actually quite low isn't it but you know let's not use that as an example and i don't actually don't quote me on this but i'm pretty sure eif make the vcs you know make the founders sign frigging side letters and things that they can't do this and they can't do that like that actually makes you not that competitive as a vc I mean, we had a round with an EIF fund the other day where from term sheet to closing, it was like four months because we were frigging about trying to make sure that the round was compliant.
16:56Lomax Ward:This is another part of this problem with the EIF. Let's say the funder funds, this 15 bill gets closed over the summer. Let's just say that it will happen. How long will it take for that capital to hit a startup's bank account? Three years? Five years? Yeah. I mean, well, it's very funny having chatted to someone. What do you think it's deployed every over four years? I don't know. I imagine there'll be a four year cycle. Right. And also, this has got to go to all their approvals to be closed to then fund a fund approval to close. To be honest, and this is also touching on Harry's point, there's only actually a certain number of names in Europe that can absorb this capital.
17:32So it's going to the same people over and over again, which actually you could argue, even though there's some very good actors in our ecosystem and some great funds there, there are some also kind of like it perpetuates any problems that we have in the ecosystem because it's the same people who are leaving the same money every single time, right? It goes back to Harry's grant competition. You know, who wins the grants? It's like maybe sometimes the people who are better at getting grants. why why why give it to one funder funds like why not have a couple of funder funds so you can actually with slightly different strategies that different areas i think it's also you know um
18:02Lomax Ward:maybe i mean maybe there will be some kind of micro funder funds or other niche strategy funder funds that live underneath this bucket i don't know what their strategy is i mean they've explicitly said the mid-tiers and the megas that's what we're trying to build so maybe i think it's good that the mid-tears are coming. Your point, I don't think we're always competing with capital from America. I think a lot just doesn't raise. So I think this, you know, it's not always the case that you know, like you said, there's probably companies that can't get the capital from Europe, can't get the capital from America, who now can you know, we'll have more shots on goals.
18:36Lomax Ward:Guys, any other final thoughts or insights on this before we move on to the Prometheus project? The final one I'd say is the holy grail really here is actually for the government to not be involved in this process at all. you know it's probably better for the government because it frees up the capital for elsewhere and you have this this gap is filled by private money which basically is you know pension funds insurance companies endowments beyond the 15 you mean is that what 15 is actually going to be made up of private money as well it's not all public money but no but i'm saying the holy grail in the longer term is that europe actually develops a private capital base that doesn't come from governments that actually invests in funds that you have in the us that you don't have here 0.02 percent of total assets in EU pension funds are invested in venture capital.
19:19Lomax Ward:Well, they've got to get in, haven't they? The pensions, the banks, the insurance companies. Yeah, the hundredth difference. It's very, that for me is the long-term solution. Is that you then, you know, then that private money, you don't have to go through what Harry calls these grant competitions. You don't have to have all the strings attached to government money. You don't have a bunch of people trying to hold you to account in Brussels. I think this is a much cleaner, smarter system, but it's going to take a long time. And we've talked about it here with the Mansion House Accords. of governments trying to get more of this pension money intervention.
19:49And of course, we've got the setback this week as well with Manson House, where the House of Lords just voted to strip the government's power to push this on. So this is a huge, huge setback. If you read the FT and what they think about this, they're saying this is too risky for pension. It's not. We're talking about a 5 % allocation. If that goes down to zero, which is probably not going to do, of that it's a you know less than a percent that will probably end up in vcs you you know you're it one percent of your portfolio construction or five percent of your portfolio construction it's it's just crazy just how this risk is absolutely blown out of proportion you know anybody should have five percent of their portfolio in high risk assets anybody um obviously mine's way higher than that but you know i was gonna say mine's 95 that way i think but it's you know you know it's all about waiting you know when in portfolio construction and if you know less than 10 is in a high risk situation of which could disrupt that 90 which is what europe's seen over the last two decades for not being in these things um when will they learn it's not they have
21:02Lomax Ward:they can see how it works like why don't we just look across the globe and all take all the best spits and apply that thinking and the british hate anyone who makes money you know that's that's one of the big difference between us in the in the us right it's like we you know we hide our money you know he's got the you know the classic kind of wealthy bristol individual that pretends to be poor yet he's bought his house from a trust you know you you it's a very british thing isn't it so so there's a whereas in america we celebrate success i want to i want to move on i want to about um that bezos has uh launched his hundred billion project prometheus the title i've given this is physical ai gets its soft bank moment so jeff bezos amazon fame is raising 100 billion for a fund that isn't a venture model what he's doing is he's buying up well this is the plan there's nothing that's happened yet buy up companies in major industrial sectors and modernize them with AI.
21:58Lomax Ward:So Prometheus is the Greek mythology, is the Titan who created humanity and then stole fire for them. This isn't venture, this is the PEification of physical AI in my world. Now I've always loved the idea of doing roll-ups and I think this is an incredibly timely, strong strategy. They're going to design the playbook for manufacturing, buy up the companies and then apply the playbook and the tech. It's buyout meets digital transformation at a scale we've never seen. Does it validate the category or swallow it or jiggle it in some other ways. Incidentally, the SoftBank Vision Fund is the only private vehicle to ever raise that much cash.
22:37Lomax Ward:And that was heavily reliant on the Middle East, which may or may not be doing stuff right now yet to be seen. But this is a massive chunk of change. What do we think of Bezos' 100 billion project Prometheus? Who wants to kick this one off? No, Maxius, go for it. So, I mean, the SoftBank moment without Masa instead of switching switch out math which in bezos no i probably for this kind of thing i probably would would have bezos on on on the bench so look as a reminder to set the context here bezos raised a 6.2 billion dollar seed round for project prometheus at the end of last year which is a startup which he raised with vic bajaj who was a chemist and physicist formerly of google x and co-founder of ai incubator foresight labs this is that is a startup working on ai for the physical economy So in a way like what Anthropic is to, you know, Anthropic and LLMs and OpenAI are to the knowledge economy and to software and to knowledge work, to law, etc.
23:34This is to factories manufacturing to the physical world. The sort of second part of this is that he's now looking to raise 100 billion to roll up old economy manufacturing companies and probably plug Project Prometheus into the Prometheus startup into these companies.
23:51Lomax Ward:There's no margin, right? Looking behind the scenes, you're looking at a lot of the companies that they're looking to buy on the strategy. They're really tight margins. They're really, really hard businesses because they're so antiquated, I think, is the. And this is, you know, the market, just to step back, the market here is scarily big. So, you know, the information economy, which LLMs touch, right, the software world, is touching roughly$20 trillion of global GDP, which is, you know, just under 20 % of global GDP. like the physical economy is like all the rest. So that's like 80 to 90 trillion dollars of global GDP.
24:28Industries like that have been untouched by software for years. So I think it's hugely exciting. It's a massive big swing. He's, you know, probably raising money in the Middle East is not as easy as he thinks at the moment, right? But ignoring that aside, this is an exciting project. You would never bet against Jeff Bezos. There is so much to go out here. we've talked about physical AI a lot on this pod but I think we're only at the beginning of this and this is actually quite relevant quite relevant for Europe for a few reasons so one is that Europe does actually have amazing research and talent in robotics obviously we know in AI too Europe is stacked with legacy manufacturing companies something like 20 % of European GDP is manufacturing whereas it's only 10 % in the US Europe has an aging workforce shocking labor laws and at the moment there are no homegrown champions in this in this area we talked about actually all of the robotics companies in europe being sold off to elsewhere so actually there is a huge opportunity i don't know where bezos's deployment of this fund would be probably a lot of it in the us quite frankly because he doesn't want to get involved in all of the issues that will happen in europe but certainly as it applied to europe this would have huge impact i think going to be a good thing for the tech side which is obviously going to need um going to need to be brought into this mix as well as kind of modernizing some of these these factories i think it's interesting on the kind of political side like i would have thought there would have been way more doomers on this for europe i think just everyone's so focused on iran at the moment i think it's just not really hit the top of the headlines so i think it's just but i'm sure we'll probably see you know some of the fears of this kind of going after kind of these manufacturing jobs but at the end of the day hopefully we can attract some of this capital to europe because if it doesn't modernize then it's going to be done elsewhere so it's a you've you've got it this has got to happen in europe because otherwise they're just going to be displaced completely so what's you know what's what's worse that this all gets done in america or china or europe gets this kind of opportunity and then of course for us VCs hey this is potential liquidity so I think overall this is a positive thing and it's valid you know validating just what we all believe the size of this kind of physical not just the bits kind of opportunity with with technology kind of slowly creeping in
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26:49Lomax Ward:loving it it's funny how everything is now moving into the real world love it yeah the only question I sort of that will time over to hell time will tell and this is an age old question in tech is do you take 100 billion do you buy a bunch of old economy manufacturing companies and juice them with ai and robotics or do you just start from scratch and go like we're going to build the airbus of the future we're going to build you know what i mean the defense cup we're going to build the rheinmetall of the future it's got to be that it's the only way to scale is that right it's got to be that i can't see any other way of doing this this strategy unless there is absolute, this is how we build tanks.
27:26Lomax Ward:This is how we build taps. I don't know what the things are, but I think this is going to be... He seems to be going the former route. He seems to be buying incumbents and juicing them rather than actually going greenfield and from scratch. Maybe it's simpler just to get around EU's planning laws. I mean, the factors, they own the property, right? I mean, it's just a way to say, here's a factory next to a train line. they have ip they have everything you know it's just like yeah brand maybe it's you know you've got the brand you've got the physical location and then you just put you know rebuild the whole thing with that and i think that's what the plan is i think it is to take in their full stack right so maybe it's the way of both those things happening simultaneously quicker if you've got like a certified thing like an aircraft if you fundamentally rip out and change the manufacturing process you almost have to like recertify the thing anyway sometimes i wonder you're better off just starting from scratch but look i mean these are smart people who can figure it out and you know but i'm sure time will tell and that there are we know there are full stack companies going after new i mean look at helsing i know helsing is doing some m &a but they're going after you know they're going off the defense sector in in europe um like from scratch i want to talk about another model so bezos is bringing here is that the chinese are bringing their ai token economy to market.
28:47Lomax Ward:So the way that I've described this in the descriptors, a new OPEC measured in tokens, not barrels. So China has formally adopted the Xi, I'm going to say this wrong, excuse me, Chinese people, Xi Yuan, as the Mandarin term for token at the 2026 China Development Forum. What they're doing is they're signaling the state of token-based AI economies. Now let me, This isn't crypto tokens, by the way, before people think this is some kind of crypto-ish thing. This isn't. This is about selling inference at scale because they own the whole stack. They own energy up all the way through. And because of the way that the country is run, they can effectively sell inference as a service.
29:28Lomax Ward:Now, Chinese models are priced at about 0.02 cents per million tokens, which is about 1.180th of the OpenAI price. The Chinese models occupy four of the top five positions on Opelruta globally, accounting for nearly 86 % of the total. So they're pushing this inference cost race to zero, which I think is something they can do because they own the whole bloody lot. I also think that Kursa has shown the world the way to go. So this week, and we're going to talk about this again in a second, but they're a$50 billion company who chose a seven-week-old Chinese open-source model over the U.S. alternatives because it was eight times cheaper.
30:04Lomax Ward:So we also know that Andreessen, for example, has already shown in some of their data that 80 % of startups are using the open source model. So I guess this is a blended way of asking the room, do we believe that buying tokens at scale is possible? Is this something that is not maybe a data or security or other sovereign risk? Do you think this is even possible? Is this a model that we will see come to pass? Maybe Harry, do you want to kick this one off? well where to start yeah i think it's clearly going to be a part of the mix people are going to always want you know the low cost cheap solution so you know and especially startups which are undercapitalized they're going to they're going to want to do this and especially you know rappers like cursor who you know are you know fighting for better margins but i think ultimately if you're building your enterprise app on something it's you know these models suffer massive problems of prompt injections and all sorts of issues so it's security but it's also reliability it's great that you can keep switching from these routers but ultimately if you want something that's going to be reproducible you're going to want to like have lock in certain models and of course you can maybe pick certain models for this but at the moment i think we're still in this wanting the best model wanting the best output is still not quite there and you know for me personally i'm addicted to opus also you've got kind of the next kind of ruben distance coming from nvidia you've got obviously the acquisition of grok this is super exciting because you're then seeing kind of you know orders of magnitude in terms of what per token but what i'm massively excited about is this kind of at the moment we're stuck at this kind of 200 tokens a second which is an eternity when you know when you're using this stuff so you know with the grok acquisition and that being incorporated we should be seeing kind of token speeds of nearly 2000 and like that's going to be really exciting so it's going to be high quality models super super fast so there'll be certain workloads and certain companies that will prefer very very low cost and don't mind the speeds but i think for the real meaty stuff the real high value stuff the real you know intelligent stuff you're going to want the top models and you want to you want to have best speeds in order to kind of solve the hardest problems i think there's i'm not fully with you on the on the quality and the speed i think they're not that far behind i it just feels like the if you do the 80 20 you're going to get most of the market using some version of this low cost service whether it's this token economy or other chinese open source models whatever it might be it just feels like a really sensible smart thing for most businesses to do not you harry because you want that level yeah i think sometimes i'm we're biased because we're we just want you know we just want to be using kind of the latest you want to geek out right yeah and that's a problem when you're kind of an early adopter i don't know if you're the cto of like a big healthcare organization insurance organized like i don't know like you you know well what's what what's the underlying model here i i don't know if that if that really works yeah no i mean look at microsoft i mean microsoft you know they've terrible software but because enterprises use them and you know everybody you get everything bundled in everyone has to use copilot only decent stuff they've ever built apart from i would argue exchange their initial stuff they've bought right what what have they actually built microsoft in decades all of their good stuff that people like they bought i'm i'm being a bit obtuse and rude there but anyway i'm gonna i don't want to go off topic lomax what other bits in here would you pick up on i think the the price of tokens is something maybe at the moment the people in in technology know fast forward a couple of years it will be kind of lingua franca on on the street like everyone will know it it will be like as tokens are becoming a commodity tokens are becoming something that everyone will think about because it's almost replacing a kind of unit of manpower or if you were taking an extreme example it's becoming the most important thing on the planet and it will only continue to be that so this formal adoption by the chinese of this term token i think is a you know important moment or it signifies how important these tokens are becoming.
34:13You know, as Jensen said recently, GTC tokens are the new commodity. And he's obviously working, as Harry said, on making sure that NVIDIA is competitive here. But it's, you know, this is the sign of the times, guys. You know, we talked about how the Chinese models are hugely widely adopted. They are going to have challenges, I think, for Western businesses that want to use them in enterprise, which is obviously a massive, massive market.
34:35Lomax Ward:I mean, if you look at Cursor as an example, obviously they are not i think reading behind the headlines behind the headlines it isn't their composer too which let's talk about now it was it was next on the docket but we can go straight into it it actually wasn't a full moonshot ai kimmy 2.5 ripoff i think maybe 20 30 percent of it was and they used their own models for the rest but they have been absolutely hammered for not coming up and saying look we built this on the infrastructure on moonshots kimmy kimmy 2.5 so i think it was the fact that it wasn't open or openly discussed that was the challenge rather than the technology that was used but doesn't that prove to your point low max this stuff is there and is is high enough quality and it is fast enough but it's definitely fast enough is it secure and safe enough right i think is the is the biggest i think you can mitigate that i think you can mitigate that well i don't know there is just prompt injecting stuff isn't there low max but you know nist in in the u.s found that chinese models are 12 times more susceptible to agent hijacking attacks so So, you know, and this stuff kind of resonates amongst CTOs and in big buying organizations.
35:40So look, I personally think of Thomas Tungens has a really good, always writes well, but has a really good post on this from this week. Actually, you know, this is this is a really cool thing for startups because, you know, you can use these open source models to build amazing products at a fraction of the price of, you know, you have to go and raise 100 million for compute now. So I think that is pretty cool. It might give you an enterprise sale ceiling, but, you know, smart entrepreneurs will find a way around. I mean, at the end of the day, once you've built your products and everybody's excited by it, you're just going to run these models in a European or American data center, right?
36:12So the advantage here is really if you ran the money in China, but you're not going to run them up. You know, if it's a European or an American, they're going to be running a data center in Europe or America. So, you know, NVIDIA still wins.
36:29Lomax Ward:Well, yeah. Yeah, thank you so much for that beautiful segue there, Harry. So ARM has built its own chip. After, what, 36 years of licensing chip designs, ARM is now building it. So now ARM is pretty much a softbank company, which I think is semi-problematic. ARM is the UK Cambridge-based firm. I'm pretty sure softbank own like 96 % of it now. They have released their AGI CPU, which is a production-ready chip built for running inference. which you've spoken about a lot in AI data centers, and Meta is its first customer. I'm pretty sure OpenAI is in there somewhere as well, but I'll have to look that up.
37:08Lomax Ward:So this is a good thing, more inference chip providers. So my question to the room is, how does, to your point, Harry, we don't need, I mean, NVIDIA is bringing down its own inference stuff and stock as well, but we don't need, you could run Chinese OS, you can run all these other chipsets from other manufacturers. is so how is this all gonna how is all this gonna wash through like do you want to set up some more of the more of the scene on this one this is an interesting one um which has been very very consistent consistent business model now is seeing 35 year old business model being sacrificed on the altar of ai as one commentator put it so now they're building their own cpu for inference jumping on the inference bandwagon they're like well you know why can't we have a piece of this which is the future right do we do we still agree that inference is the direction of travel from now I think for sure.
37:58I mean, I think, and this also gets a little bit uncomfortable for Arm because now they're competing with their own licensees, their own customers, right? NVIDIA, Qualcomm, others who pay them royalties. So I think that's something they've clearly managed to get their head around. But, you know, Arm is currently a$4.5 billion business growing at about 20, 25 % a year, 90%, maybe even 95 % gross margin, clearly, because it's a licensing business model. but you know maybe they're like 25 growth a year four and a half billion top line isn't enough i
38:25Lomax Ward:want a piece of this i want a piece of the i'm sure i'm sure soft bank is is gently on the phone going what the fuck guys can we get some more and you know actually i'm this what i haven't actually this will require a significant investment from them and this has been coming down this is not an overnight announcement this is this has been worked on for the last few years is you know this could take top line that that business line in itself could be many multiples of the existing business lines so obviously it will be less profitable but it's what it's more it's more a case now of who isn't building their own chip and also i think we're going to end up with who isn't generating their own power all of the all of the hyperscalers seem to be following the chinese model and trying to build their own full stacks which i think is a really really interesting thought experiment harry have you got anything that you wanted to poke in this one yeah it's it's strange so like agreeing with low mats like for them to sort of go away from that business model and there seems to be a lot of competition for what they're doing and of course it's more than just a you know it's an imprint cpu you've got all the networking you've got all of the other stuff around the data center so that they're they are they going to be doing anything else around that does this sort of threaten intel amd more if it's on the cpu side is intel still around they still they still got a business they've bounced back a little bit but trump's taking a stake in them well the u.s government has well i think they gifted they gifted 10 didn't they Please, please help us.
39:48Lomax Ward:Please don't shut us down. Please, please look after us. Right. Well, last on the docket. Actually, well, before we get to our predictions, our new section, I want to talk about Innovate UK. So they're getting a strategic overhaul. A founder is now running the show at last. But will he be able to do what's needed? So first up, for those that don't know, what is Innovate UK? It's a government funding funnel for R &D predominantly, part of the UK's mechanism for de-risking and leveraging private investment. I was working out where it fit into the government stack. So you've got Treasury, HMT, goes into DSIT, Department of Science, Innovation and Technology, into UKRI, UK Research and Investment, into Innovate UK, which is one of nine councils.
40:31Lomax Ward:So that's the flow of bureaucracy behind the scenes. UK has, I think it's 25 billion kind of R &D budget-ish. ukri is about 10 of that and then innovates it was beis wasn't it beis became dsit and two other quangos they can't keep it the same they have to constantly read relabel everything but yeah effectively ukri is the body that kind of funds fundamental research universities you then got all the different councils like biology council eprc physics so it's everything from quantum to bio to health so that all comes out of it's like university budgets plus infrastructure plus r &d spend and innovates billion is focused on innovative SMEs and firms that are kind of taking that technology.
41:20Lomax Ward:Right. And a year ago, exit entrepreneur Tom Adiola took the reins. Now, I think you've already said this, Harry, but he's allocating about a billion a year via grants, loans, knowledge transfer partnerships and computer access. They've had their challenges. Most people will remember the Women in Innovation fiasco 2024. They had a 75K award awarded to 50 women. They backtracked, only awarded 25. Two mil fell into an abyss, then apologized to the 1 ,500 applicants, and it was an unholy mess. It's obviously been noted as being slow, bureaucratic, often seen as a bit of a burden. Unreasonable computer says no responses to many of the requests and requests for support.
42:01Lomax Ward:And Adeola is now in charge, wants to shift from being a funding project into supporting more companies, make it more innovative, make it simpler and easier for companies to work with him so can he succeed should governments try to pick winners can a founder mindset actually work in this environment or will the civil service machine grind him down harry you know this world how would you how would you tee this up and where would you go yeah yeah for a full disclosure i'm on the innovate um uk council and and actually i i knew tom before he took up the post and he messaged me and um you know invite invited me to kind of I suppose they're the inner circle to kind of help steer this.
42:37So first of all, Tom's fantastic. And I think at the end of the day, founders coming into organizations which remits are to fund via grants, founders, it kind of makes sense to have some of that experience sitting in. So it's nice to see Chief Executive of a major double service department having a kind of a founder background. And I think Tom is definitely taking a fresh approach.
43:02Lomax Ward:we're seeing more on we've got alex to pledge in there we've had obviously matt clifford going in and out we're seeing more founders and entrepreneurs touch touching deeper into government and hopefully that will continue and hey they even invited me so i think absolute mistake but i think first of all we know i know a lot about this area i mean actually i was a recipient of an early invite k grant it was critical to kind of you know xylo's success story so they can be really really useful things i think the problem is like you've got the money's been very much spread very very thin tens of thousands of grants and then with ai you're just getting this like grant slot so that they're having to kind of change for a number of different reasons first of all i think it's they were very broad and i think now they're focusing around the industrial strategy they're focusing around there's an alignment now isn't there we've all kind of all been kicked into gear i think a little bit with the eight industrial strategies yeah it's like hey we invented the computer yet we've got like no computing companies right like the uk is you know unbelievably good at Nobel Prizes and fundamental research and unbelievably good at giving it to the rest of the world to commercialize.
44:06So I think like the focus around advanced technologies, quantum, semis, EngBio, for instance, is great because actually then what's happening is more of it's focusing towards our strengths and hopefully we're funding less, what I would call iterative R &D of kind of old medium-sized firms that are kind of getting, you know, innovate uk with some r &d tax credits and they're really they would have done it anyway so i think it's good to focus on what on what we're good at so that we can actually get that up and then it's also just to have this kind of thing you know the other thing i think is bringing in and i was you know there the other day and they mentioned the word deal flow and i was just like to hear that kind of in a government agency was great you know the organization needs to actually track the best companies why because you need to know what good looks like so you can benchmark everything and two hey by going to a high growth company and actually supporting it is it more likely to set up manufacturing in the UK do more development if it does raise that 200 million series b round is that now going to kind of be twice as many jobs in the UK and therefore you know the exchequer collecting that kind of tax receipts and it's less likely then if it does get acquired to keep a strong base in the UK.
45:24So I think, and at the same time, are they more likely to get that escape velocity? Because as we know, we've got to respect the power law. Most companies don't do very well. And, you know, the one or two companies in our portfolio deliver, you know, 90 % of the returns. And I think just understanding that and, and setting up the system is really exciting in terms of how hard it's going to be to implement. I think, you know, the thinking and speaking to all the right people but the proof's going to be in the execution and then finally i think one of the simplest things which you know i said to do is like most important thing i think for us is we don't want to waste founders time and there's lots of calls with really really high failure rates and biomedical catalysts for you know for health care is absolutely abysmal and you you really want to make sure that you get the screening criteria right and you get to know really really quickly you know we know that's really really important in in our trade is that you know if you mess a founder about they end up spending you know months in dd and then you you pull out the last minute that's you know that's actually net negative to that company so i think this idea of getting to quick yeses and nos and actually having having a prepared mind so you know what you're looking for is a good thing and they're going to have to do this because they're going to need to actually assess the companies on fundamentals because of ai slot and grant writing so you know it's going to be hard but i think you know i i back tom it's down to their execution at the end of the day but what i've seen is you know tom works at tom works at pace he's a proper founder and it's um it's going to be interesting to see how the civil service coats with that but there's definitely do you think do you think he'll be given the latitude
47:02Lomax Ward:that's what i feel is the challenge here will he be given the space and latitude i think um look founders are really good at kind of bashing their head against a wall until they get through right so if anyone's going to kind of make change it's going to be it's going to be it's going to be a great founder um that they're used to kind of overcoming big big challenges we need to get the funding up we need to get the funding up across the stack and this is part of the mix this won't solve it but it's you know it's it's going to be a multi-pronged affair isn't it harry it's going to be multi it's going to be bb over here a bit of bit of grant over here a bit of more private encouragement over there hopefully some pension poking up here so that whole pot will hopefully hopefully come to par and and it's people like us it's founders like you know you can sit and be an armchair critic but get involved yeah absolutely be supportive because i think that you know i think a lot of the interactions i've had has been you know they've been open ears and um it's great to see some of those changes that i you know in in various areas i've been advising dsip for for a few years now seeing some of those things actually starting to actually get through you know you've you've also got to kind of roll your sleeves up i think sometimes and um go help out it's a lot of good people um but it's a hard hard thing to kind of go against civil service well we are called upside so i'm loving your attitude uh lomax before we move on anything you wanted to add on this one no i think it can only be a good thing it's a hard hard task but i wish them all the best we are going to try a new section in this wonderful podcast called predictions and we need a we need a theme tune or i'm going to hum a theme to you do do do predictions lomax what do you predict i just remember that we're called upside this is not a great um this is not a great prediction is it's you it's yours misery you're predicting misery are you 100 gold you're not gonna my my my thinking and is that the revenue is just not going to come fast enough to justify the capex of these hyperscalers you know the big five hyperscalers amazon microsoft google metro and oracle will spend over 602 billion on infrastructure this year that's like they won't know it's like they will they will they will dan and that's like 33 up from last year and so and i just think you know to put that in perspective it's just the amazon's capex is alone is greater than that of the entire u.s energy sector it's just um insane so i think you know between now and 2030 there's sort of two trillion of ai related capex and i think if you look at where the revenue is today you know you total open ai anthropic and enterprise ai i don't know at best you're at a hundred billion and then you know you take that i think double that i think i'm pretty sure open i was looking at 150 by 2030 or something like that what's the limits you hear i was one of my friends is a hedge fund manager and he was saying that a lot of this has been um accelerated by this kind of depreciation rules that trump brought in effectively they can they can depreciate 100 of this kind of on day one so if you if you're high cash flow your effect is effectively taxed back and i don't i don't know how much you know that's actually hugely accelerating this infrastructure build out because you've got this kind of 100 depreciation like accounting thing that they've brought in and i i think the thing that breaks it though is yeah like you say is iran and and maybe that you know the saudis like not being able to participate i can't see how i can't there's just too much friction here so what's the prediction the prediction is revenue is not going to move fast enough to justify the capex is that the playback just won't be there especially when they need to keep ripping out these gpus every two years now putting them back in it's just like it's just um so people will realize that and people will realize they're over their skis and we'll have a general cooling off you know it's It's not a revolutionary prediction, but I think it's just still every time I go through numbers.
50:52Lomax Ward:Well, it's our first week of predictions. I think it's a very solid prediction. Yeah, but when I go through these numbers, I know Mads is not here this week. He's much more of an optimist than me, but I just think we're getting over our skis. He's coming more down our path. Did you notice last week he's coming down more this way? Hang on a minute. We are now moving out of free cash flow and into debt. We've got to think this stuff through. Harry, what was your prediction? i think i think you're you're seeing some of that heat coming out of the market that you know this the last month or so you've seen a real pullback you know across the board and a big rotation but i think what i'm seeing at the moment if you look at the 52 week prices on the kind of the mag 7 like you've just seen this kind of huge rotation you know microsoft is pretty much down it you know the lows on its 52-week range, so is Meta.
51:43But Google is still, you know, is doing strong. Apple's doing really, really strong. So I kind of feel like we're seeing the disruption of the Mag 7. And then you've got the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI. So I kind of feel like Microsoft Meta potentially going to be displaced. I think potentially if those two things come in, like you're going to get this kind of rotation into in these other stocks and you know are you going to see like this you know fragmentation i i'm kind of you know i to be fair in april i reduced my positions in microsoft and and meta just for these reasons because i just feel like you know they don't really have a mo or as much of a mo as i think say look at google google's all the way through from the best one of the best ai teams in the world it's demis you know demis is god um all the way through to kind of the hardware they're you know training gemini and the first tpu and they have the strongest distribution i mean by country mile i would argue and then you've got um you know apple and you've you you've got this kind of m5 kind of chips and being able to do you know inference on your actual device i won't talk about tesla because i'm not including it i'm
52:56Lomax Ward:very happy not not talking about elon that's fine with me yeah i saw that um that siri's now going to aggregate whichever model you want to use so they've they've culled their arrangement their unique arrangement with open ai which i think is the way to go i thought they were going to get fully into bed with the on-device gemini but we'll see maybe maybe they've worked out their own models i imagine so on the on the five and the last thing sorry is all those ipos probably won't happen if we this is a ran thing doesn't doesn't sort itself out why are you going to ipo if you You know, and I think if things are...
53:31Lomax Ward:Inflation hits 4 % in the States, which it's predicted to do. Yeah, that's going to be crushing for equities. So you're seeing that already, right? I mean, just looking at today, sort of 2 % down across the board. So last week's been all in the red. So yeah, don't know where that's going to go. Just to be extremely dull, my prediction is in exactly the same camp as both of yours. So my prediction, what I found fascinating this week is I was looking at how the hyperscalers are projecting revenue. So I was just picking on Anthropic just as an example, because there was a big discussion this week about how they did$6 billion in February.
54:11Lomax Ward:I don't know if you saw this. And I was like, they didn't do$6 billion in February. And they actually didn't. What they've done is they've got$6 billion added to their run rate, which basically, if it was$6 billion in February, they would be predicting$72 billion in ARR. So it's not. It's$6 billion to the run rate. It's around 20 bill. We're doing extremely well. I mean, we're still talking buckets of cash here. I'm not trying to be demeaning in any way. However, how they predict and project their revenue is they take usage spikes from that month and then forward plan 12 months. So it's all these people experimenting and spending gazillions on tokens.
54:51Lomax Ward:And then I was looking at the, what other fact did I read? It was eight of the 10, the Fortune 10 companies are all Anthropik customers. But you don't have to scratch a little bit below the surface to see that there, some of them are the low cost, low spend. Okay, you got somebody in the eight of the 10 using the tech, but it's just not the volume that people think. there's going to be i think a reckoning i think we're going to start seeing how how these nonsense capex spends where i'm not with you low max i think a lot of this capex just can't happen just throw energy and war into the pot and they can't happen let alone planning and all the other frictions that we're going to see so i think people are going to my prediction is that people are going to start to wake up to how these how these revenue lines are pushed into the press and how they're absolutely nonsense.
55:38Lomax Ward:Last thing before we close off on this. Interestingly, 79 % of OpenAI customers also pay for Anthropic products. So everybody's buying everything and trialing everything. And I think that's just going to stop. I think you're going to start, I think obviously I'm not a very good representative of the general population, but I think you're starting to sort of just, you know, you've been trying everything. You're starting to sort of get your kind of tech stack locked in now. And I've been, you know, got rid of OpenAI. a while back now Anthropic curse has now gone so you're starting to kind of it's really like you know Anthropic and Google for me the other thing I thought was interesting is kind of how they set their prices and forecasts it sounds very much like how the energy markets in the UK work where you know 10-20 % of let's just set up the gas price and that's what we should all get paid anyway yeah I'm going to go with that deal of the week Lomax quickie deal of the week deal of the week is Well, Nathan, AirStreet is a fund.
56:39Yeah, good for him. Good for him. His solo GP raised, AirStreet 3, I think it is, is$232 billion, a million? Million, yeah. So good on him. He's been long on AI ever since he set up the funds. So good for Nathan. It's great to see kind of new GPs coming in and raising that kind of capital.
57:00Lomax Ward:He's solo as well, right? Yeah. Mine was Granola. I love the fact that Granola becomes the latest UK unicorn. I love Granola. I think it's a bloody awesome toolkit. Harry, did you have a deal of the week? I think mine was this lace lithography. I can never say lithography. Everyone's got one of those words. Funny enough, we've looked at a few of these kind of companies. I won't say that word again. But yeah, effectively, what they're trying to do is get below this kind of EUV, kind of 13 and a half nanometer limit so effectively when you make chips and you put the designs into silicon you need a really really small short wavelength of light to make these tiny tiny features and effectively we've kind of Moore's law in terms of transistors has stopped now because you know we can't get past this kind of sub nanometer resolution at the transistor level I wanted to send this to Alex in our team who's got a PhD in optical physics but I didn't get to So I've done my best to try and explain it.
58:02But yeah, interesting, great. You know, whether it's a competitor to ASML.
58:06Lomax Ward:What was this, Norwegian? Where are they? Where's Lester Thornton? Norwegian Deep Tech Startup Company. Gentlemen, loving that. Loved our chat. Thank you so much. And I'll catch you all next week.
58:30Thank you.
From the publisher
Welcome back to Upside, where Dan Bowyer of SuperSeed and Lomax Ward of Outsized Ventures, joined by Harry Destecroix, MBE, of SCVC unpack the forces shaping European venture, deep tech and capital.
This week’s conversation reflects a system shifting: Europe is writing bigger checks, physical AI is moving into focus, and the economics of AI are starting to change.
The question is no longer where innovation happens.
It is where value accrues.
The stack isn’t just scaling. It is being contested.
What's covered:
00:00 Intro and the week’s themes
02:00 Europe’s €15B fund-of-funds and the capital gap
08:00 Seed vs growth: where Europe is actually underfunded
14:00 Bezos’ $100B physical AI strategy
20:00 Roll-ups vs rebuilds in the industrial economy
25:00 China’s token model and the cost collapse of AI
31:00 Security, sovereignty and model choice
36:00 Innovate UK and founder-led policy
41:00 Capex vs revenue: the emerging imbalance
47:00 Predictions and market direction
52:00 Deals of the week




