The 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle That's About to Repeat Itself

0:03First, if you look historically, you can go back to 1974. The markets average about 7%, real estate at 12%. You can go back 200 years in the US, the UK, and Australia, and real estate runs in 18.6-year cycles. And it concurrently has done that over and over. And I can go back for the last 100 years, show you exact years. They all match up, which means that going into the end of this year is when we're going to see all of this happening, right? And this is the same time similar to the recession. This is when you make real money. A patriarch I worked for in Colorado, he went from$150 million to$450 million in two years during the last recession.

0:51Because he's like, look, I can buy a condo in Miami for$200 ,000. And people are still moving to Miami and it's Miami, right? So he did that and then he sold them for whatever,$600 ,000,$700 ,000. um and so real estate and it's tangible it's not going anywhere right so now is the time you need to be running toward it not away from it and then the other thing too is if you are going to give your money one of the best questions i think is um okay were you around the last recession and if they did work in the last recession or they were had a business i said how many properties did you give back?

1:30And they'll say one of two things. None, which is great because they understood how to get through it, right? And you could ask the same thing about with the 21, 22 properties. And if they said they gave, they did give something back, I said, what did you learn from it? Because you can't replace experience because they've already been through it and they're not going to want to do it again. And, you know, they probably have quite a bit of their own money in there too and so you do have to go after experience and the person that you feel good with but ask them and then also say look what do you plan on selling this at at what return what happens if you know you understand cap rates okay so if they say we're going to sell it a five cap so ask them what happens if you sell it a six cap institutions will always take 20 basis points for every year that they're considering to hold the asset so do they still make money

2:30smile please thank you so ask them ask them like well what happens if it goes the other way because everybody's like oh you bought a five sell it for it well what happens if it goes the other way right what happens if interest rates go up what's going to happen and if they give you what the returns are going to be and you're good with it go forward i think psychologically the hard thing is that we should have all slowed down a lot or stopped not now but obviously more near the top of the cycle and when everything seems horrible you find the best operator who has to operate at this discounted valuation because everyone's in a bad mood about the industry yeah and that's when you get the best deals done i think dj you touched on something right at the end you said about interest rates that could really accelerate this uh in a really bad way real uh um for real night i don't know what everyone else on the panel thinks about where rates are headed i i think they're staying only for one reason personally trump i think trump is putting so much pressure for them to go down that they're just holding that's my personal opinion you guys i mean i think they go down slightly but i don't i don't pretend to know the answer right like uh howard mark says he doesn't ever try to predict the future.

3:44He just sticks his head out the window and kind of sees which way things are swinging a little bit. But I believe in what John said, not trying to predict too much. Anybody else? I think rates are going to stay for a while in this area because of the persistent inflation we've had with oil. I think if oil goes down, you'll have an easier way out for the Fed to lower, but we don't know what's going to happen. Yeah. And you go back to what I was saying. Now, two years from now, things will start coming back up. And guess what? If you bought today, you're going to ride that wave going the other way.

4:15Hi, I'm Richard C. Wilson. Our community has closed over$1 billion of transactions. We have over 16 million registered members across 100 plus LinkedIn groups. And I own billionaires.com and run Family Office Club. Over 19 years, we've hosted 300 live events. I've built 50 of our own AI tools. And between the billionaires I've interviewed, this is into millionaires who have spoken on stage and over a thousand decamillionaires who have presented. We've found there's three things that really can build your wealth. Proximity, super intelligence, and scale. That's exactly what we provide at Family Office Club.

4:51We host 30 events a year, including five large summits for wealthy founders and investors, dozens of workshops and masterminds, including 12 artificial intelligence, laptops out, implementation workshops. So you leave with AI implemented. To learn more, please go to familyoffices.com. and I look forward to personally meeting you at our next live event. If you are a founder, raising capital, developing real estate, or you're an investor, we'd love for you to get involved in the Family Office Club. I've run this community for 18 years now. We've hosted 300 live events. We have 17 million social media group members and followers.

5:31We have the number one YouTube channel on Family Offices. We have the number one most popular podcast on Family Offices. You can learn more about us and our membership options at familyoffices.com. We have 30 in-person events planned in 2026 and another dozen events this year. Please go to familyoffices.com to learn more.