America's Economic WINNING Streak Is Just Starting

12 Aug 2025 · 8 min

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In short

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano

Episode Title

America's Economic WINNING Streak Is Just Starting

Episode Overview In this episode, Anthony Pompliano discusses the current state of the American economy, focusing on recent inflation data, tariffs, real estate investment perspectives, and the significance of Bitcoin as an automated asset.

Key Highlights

  1. Inflation Data
  2. Current Inflation Rate: 2.7% year-over-year, lower than economists' expectations.
  3. Tariff Impact: Pompliano argues that recent data shows tariffs are not causing inflation as previously claimed. Main inflation drivers such as shelter, medical services, and utilities are not tariff-related.
  4. Deflationary Evidence: Categories like apparel and new cars are showing deflation, indicating that tariffs could be deflationary instead.
  1. Misconceptions in Economic Narratives
  2. Pompliano critiques mainstream economic narratives, suggesting that the consensus around tariffs and inflation is flawed.
  3. He emphasizes the importance of independent research and analysis over government data, citing alternative metrics (e.g., Truflation) that suggest even lower inflation rates.
  1. Real Estate Investment Perspectives
  2. Ray Dalio's View: In a recent discussion, Ray Dalio stated that real estate is a poor investment, emphasizing:
  3. Interest Rate Sensitivity: Real estate is more sensitive to interest rates than to inflation, making it less favorable in the current environment.
  4. Taxation Issues: Real estate is an easy target for taxation, limiting diversification options.
  5. Mobility Constraints: Real estate's fixed nature makes it harder to liquidate and move investments.
  6. Pompliano invites rebuttals from real estate investors to Dalio's critiques.
  1. Bitcoin as the First Automated Asset
  2. Definition: Pompliano describes Bitcoin as an "automated asset" with no human involvement in monetary policy execution or transaction validation.
  3. Comparison to AI: He likens Bitcoin to "AI money," highlighting its potential and stability amid economic fluctuations.
  4. Future Value: Despite uncertainty in valuation, Pompliano believes Bitcoin's worth is likely higher than its current market value of $2.3 trillion.

Arguments and Concepts

  • Tariffs and Inflation: Pompliano argues that tariffs do not contribute to inflation as commonly believed, countering mainstream economic advice.
  • Human Decision Making: The episode discusses the limitations of human decision-making in economic contexts, asserting that automation (like Bitcoin) will become increasingly valuable in managing economic uncertainty.
  • Resilience through Automation: Emphasizes the need for resilient financial assets in an unpredictable economic landscape, positioning Bitcoin as a critical player.

Conclusion Pompliano maintains an optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy, arguing that it is on the verge of a winning streak, backed by rising asset prices and controlled inflation. He encourages listeners to critically evaluate economic narratives and embrace innovative financial technologies like Bitcoin.

Call to Action

  • Pompliano urges listeners to subscribe to his YouTube channel to support his work and follow him on social media for ongoing updates and discussions on finance and economics.

Links

  • [Listen on Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-desk-of-anthony-pompliano/id1819778503)
  • [Listen on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/1THAGnR1Xt1WDUn1CCTh1D)
  • [Pompliano's Daily Letter](http://pompletter.com)
  • [Pompliano's YouTube Channel](https://pompyoutube.com/)
  • [Follow Pompliano on Twitter](https://twitter.com/APompliano) | [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/pompglobal/) | [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthonypompliano/)

Hashtags AnthonyPompliano #FromtheDesk #marketnews

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Hello, everyone. We've got a lot to discuss today. Inflation came in lower than expected. Ray Dalio says that real estate is a bad investment and Bitcoin is becoming the first automated asset in the digital age. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:24All right, before we get into today's show, I want to ask you for a favor. I never ask for anything, but this time I need something important. Please make sure that you subscribe to this YouTube channel. I'm trying to grow this as much as possible. Our team comes in here every single morning, works their butts off. And if you hit subscribe, that's the way you say thank you. So please make sure you subscribe. Let's get into today's show. All right, ladies and gentlemen, inflation came in at 2.7 % year over year this morning. That's lower than economists' expectations. Shocker. It's just another data point that proves that tariffs were never going to be inflationary.

0:56Let's say that you believe the government data, which I don't, but maybe you do. So let's give them the benefit of the doubt for a second. Wasteland Capital shows that the funniest thing about today's CPI is that literally everything that's driving inflation is not subject to tariffs. Shelter, medical services, electricity, restaurant meals, airfares, used cars, all of it. None of it has tariffs, but that's what's driving inflation. Meanwhile, apparel, new cars, and stuff, that's low and it's deflating because ultimately tariffs were going to be deflationary and now the data proves it. When you look at the key categories that we always look at, energy, food and shelter, energy fell by one point one percent.

1:37That was largely driven because of gas prices falling in the month of July by two point two percent. Look at that food. I mean, this is where people spend their money, right? Food every single day, food flat zero percent and actually down at the grocery store by point one percent. Now, this is why I predicted back on February 3rd that tariffs are a powerful tool that can incentivize desired behaviors and punish undesired behaviors. The mainstream narrative is full of misinformation and fearmongering. It is always important to read source material so you can think for yourself. Tariffs work and the United States is about to go on a big winning streak.

2:14Think about that. I said on February 3rd, we're about to go on a big winning streak. All time high asset prices and no inflation. But here's the craziest part of this whole thing. The government data isn't even accurate. If you read Truflations data, real-time alternative inflation metric, it's actually at 1.8%, not the 2.7 % from the government. That means that the mainstream consensus is even more wrong than people are acknowledging. Tariffs were never inflationary. They haven't been inflationary in history, and they weren't going to be inflationary this time either. Be careful who you listen to out there.

2:44The government is telling you that inflation is not actually showing up because of the tariffs. But all the economists, the mainstream talking heads, and all of these people who are doing all that fear-mongering, They were all wrong. And it goes back to my one point, which is you know where the truth is when you realize that dissent has been outlawed. And back in February and April, it was taboo to say that tariffs weren't going to be inflationary. But that's exactly what ended up being true. Ray Dalio was recently asked by David Rubenstein what he thought about gold and real estate. And Dalio said that real estate's a horrible investment.

3:16Here's what he had to say. Throughout history, there have been two things that people have always wanted as a source of wealth. One of his gold and then real estate. And what do you think about if you're nervous about paper currency and the valuation of it, why not just buy real estate and hold on to it? Is that not a good idea? It's not a good idea. It's not a good idea because real estate is more interest rate sensitive than it is even inflation sensitive. So if you were to say, if this environment happens, does it go? It goes down in real terms. it's also an asset that is a fixed asset that is the easiest asset to tax.

3:55In other words, in any place, you're in a particular state, putting in real estate taxes means that they could always get the money. And so it's not an effective diversifier that way. And also being able to move money from one place to another, the real estate is nailed it. So let's recap his three points here. One, real estate is more interest rate sensitive than it is inflation sensitive. So given current circumstances, it's likely to go down in real terms. Makes sense. His second point, real estate is a fixed asset that is easy to tax, which limits its impacts on your ability to diversify. And third, real estate is nailed down.

4:30Can't move it. So investing in it makes it more difficult to move money from one place to another. Sounds like Ray Dalio is a Bitcoiner and ultimately real estate, according to Ray Dalio, it's a bad investment. So all you real estate investments out there, I would love to hear what your rebuttal is to the GOAT Ray Dalio. Everyone knows that the internet has reduced trust in institutions, media outlets, and the government. Sunlight is the best disinfectant, and nowhere has that been more obvious than when the internet meets an old industry. So it only makes sense that the digital world would produce a trustless asset that allows anyone to use it, but no one to rely on the word of others.

5:04Ultimately, this is what Bitcoin is. But there's something even more interesting, in my opinion, starting to happen in the digital world than just a reduction of trust. We are watching automation attack every corner of the business and finance industries. If software can do it, software will do it. And that is where I think Bitcoin is most misunderstood. The digital currency is the world's first automated asset. There are no humans involved in the execution of monetary policy, the securing of the network, or the validating of transactions. Machines and software are diligently working to protect and operate the strongest computer network in the world.

5:38It's pretty crazy to think about how big Bitcoin has gotten. So you could describe Bitcoin as AI money. It's automated, it's intelligent, and it's used to store value or transact for goods and services. So the question becomes, what exactly is the first and most popular AI money actually worth? I don't know the answer, but I do know that that number has to be higher than the current$2.3 trillion that Bitcoin is valued at. The reason this trend is worth focusing on is because human intervention is becoming a liability across the economy. Is the Fed behind the curve? Are politicians printing too much money?

6:10Should the executive branch influence monetary policy? What level would be too high for the national debt? How about, can we get more institutions to buy our treasuries? Every single one of those questions rely on humans synthesizing a lot of information and then making good decisions. But we know from the plethora of academic studies that humans are horrible at navigating complex situations, especially when they are asked to make decisions today using current information about what's gonna happen in the future. So eventually we're going to stop asking humans to partake in this circus. Bitcoin is an automated asset that is oblivious to the world around it.

6:44Regardless of whether inflation is high or low, and thankfully, as I've explained, it is much lower than people were predicting earlier this year, Bitcoin continues to execute the monetary policy that's coded into the system. It doesn't matter how much demand there is for Bitcoin. The monetary policy doesn't change. And we can be in an economic boom or a Great Depression. Bitcoin won't change anything about the system or its monetary policy. This type of automation is what will become increasingly valuable in the uncertain chaotic world that we are headed towards. We need assets that will resist the temptation of jumping from one theme to another.

7:18We need resilience and we need automation. And ultimately, that is what Bitcoin is set to offer. So higher we will go until the world finally understands the incredible technology that you, I, and everyone else is so fortunate enough to hold. That's it for today's show. I hope you guys are enjoying it. Please make sure that you're following us on X and please, please, please make sure that you subscribe on YouTube. Every single subscriber is a big thank you to our entire team. We're trying to grow that. So I really appreciate you subscribing. I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

From the publisher

America's economic winning streak is underway. Assets continue to break all-time highs and the latest inflation print came in soft (again). Know what that means? Tariffs are WORKING! Here's what the bears and doomers keep getting wrong about the US economy right now.


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Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at: 

http://pompletter.com


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