Bitcoin Is The Only Asset Holding Up Right Now... Has It Bottomed?

0:00Ladies and gentlemen, Bitcoin is the shining light in a sea of red during the Iran conflict. Assets are falling from the sky everywhere, yet the decentralized, non-sovereign store of value, it continues to hold strong and it remains in the green since the start of the war. I joined CNBC's Squawk Box this morning to explain why I think this is such an important data point. Take a listen. Bitcoin's been the shining light over the Iran conflict. I mean, stocks are down, You see bonds going down. You see gold going down. Bitcoin has been flat to slightly up. And I don't know if you can take a victory lap in the sense of over the last year, it's been the opposite.

0:34Bitcoin's been down and those assets have been up. But I do think that people are saying to themselves, well, I thought that Bitcoin was supposed to just be kind of beta to the rest of these risk assets. And so if everything else is selling off, why is Bitcoin not selling off? And so I do think that there's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel for Bitcoin investors who have been taking a couple of beatings. This was just a Bitcoin winter and we're now in some kind of pseudo summer. I think that volatility has significantly compressed in Bitcoin. It was, you know, an 80, 90 vol asset.

1:00Now it's like a 40 vol asset. It drew down 50 percent. That's kind of what you would expect in that kind of volatility environment. And I think that there's just a lot of people who hold Bitcoin who say, look, I like it at 60 plus thousand dollars. And the geopolitical uncertainty and chaos actually makes me want to own more Bitcoin rather than less because this thing is neutral and isn't subject to any one country. Is it happening from individuals or do you think it's through ETFs or what do you think is happening? I think it's a little bit of everything, right? One of the things that people have long talked about with Bitcoin is how do we get mass adoption?

1:29And that was kind of the phrase everyone used. And this is what mass adoption looks like is you have individuals, you have companies, you have ETFs, you have countries. But does that mean that the price discovery suggests that this is not on its way to the moon? Well, I think it may be arguably has been more stable than some of these other things you're describing. But at the same time, we've had Kathy Wood and so many other people, by the way, including yourself, I think, who've talked about, I was thinking about higher prices. Tom Lee talked about, you know, half a million dollars, a million dollars of Bitcoin.

2:00And we obviously have. Yeah, I think if you look at gold as a good example, people used to talk about five thousand dollar gold price and it was at eighteen hundred dollars. Everyone kind of thought it sounded crazy. Right. It will get there. I think Bitcoin is a very similar thing. What the time frame is, it's very, very hard to nail down. But what I will say is just look at the compound annual growth rate. You know, if the stock market compounds at 8 to 10 percent a year, Bitcoin should do something that is multiples. But are you seeing the corporates? I mean, there was a whole argument that corporate sovereigns, this sort of big institutional money was going to end up in Bitcoin.

2:30And we talked about that almost endlessly around this table about a year ago. And that was what was going to drive the price. And that doesn't appear to be happening. There's two things that have happened. One is I think that there are a lot of countries who are saying, hey, how do I participate in this without explicitly going and buying Bitcoin itself? And so you see them doing things like JVs on the mining side and stuff like that, especially the Gulf countries. But also you've seen a number of disclosures where country sovereign wealth funds have gone and taken positions in the ETF. And so I don't think it's kind of this like chaotic, enthusiastic, hand over fist buying of Bitcoin that people thought they were going to do in their central bank.

3:03But I do think that there has been allocations that we didn't have just two years ago. And that, you know, it's kind of like a slowly and then all of a sudden. And I think that's probably what we'll see here. Now, I'm not the only person to notice this development. Binance Research just dropped a report comparing crypto's performance to everything else since the geopolitical conflict kicked off. In the report that they write, since the conflict began, Bitcoin and Ethereum returned plus one and plus six percent respectively through 32 days of the conflict. At one point, the assets were up significantly.

3:34Bitcoin was up 14%. Ethereum was up 22%. But at the same time, the S &P 500 was down 8%. The MAG 7 had dropped 10%. Semiconductor stocks had dropped 12%. Gold fell 13%. Take that, gold bugs. And silver had fallen 22%. Now the hook writes itself. Gold and silver, the traditional safe havens, they got crushed while crypto held in strong. Now, as if that wasn't good enough, there's another data point flashing positive news in crypto. Long-term holder accumulation. This is the big granddaddy of them all. The OGs since mid-February, they've been buying once again. And that usually serves as a bullish signal, especially right after Bitcoin or ETH or any of these assets has fallen aggressively.

4:16Now, Binance research also shows that the month of March, that was the first positive month of spot ETF flows this year. And so now you have ETF flows being positive and you've got long-term holder accumulation happening again. Those are both bullish trends that are now overlapping. So the future of Bitcoin still looks very bright. But if you're like me, I already got Bitcoin. I know it's a winning asset. I'm still buying more, but what else is there? So now I'm focused on trying to figure out how AI can help us all make more money and better allocate our assets. I call this the barbell of the modern finance world.

4:49Bitcoin and AI, two assets that are locked together like brothers in arms, and they are ready to disrupt the financial world. Because I believe this, our team has been aggressively building products that leverage the latest AI tech to help investors. This morning, we announced the launch of the first agentic research product. And that means that we have AI agents that are now scouring mountains and mountains of data. And they're trying to locate undiscovered insights in finance. And then the AI actually writes the research reports without any human intervention. Take a listen to how I described it on CNBC this morning.

5:21For the last decade, I've been coming on here, pounding the table about Bitcoin. It's been one of the best performing assets. I'm coming back to pound the table and tell people that there's a supersonic tsunami of artificial intelligence that is coming to finance. And I think that people are drastically underestimating how quickly things are going to be built, how pervasive the impact on jobs are going to be. And we want to be a pioneer of doing that. We've got a public company that we see as an agentic finance firm. The first product we have is a consumer finance product that basically allows anyone to upload all of your financial accounts and you can start talking to an LLM with personalized insights for you.

5:52We now are taking a step forward. Today, we're launching an agentic research offering. And what that basically means is we are using AI to not only go and do the research, right? AI is very good at sorting through all this data to find hidden insights in financial markets. But the AI is actually creating the reports and going and actually getting it published as well. And so if you think about this, we could publish hundreds of research reports per day. We have one human who's overseeing this entire AI system. And I think that people are drastically underestimating how smart the AI is. But also we can just produce this stuff now cheaper and faster than the humans can at other research shops.

6:25My question to you is, and I don't disagree with you. I think some of the stuff's remarkable. The question is whether the insights become commoditized. Meaning if you're using Claude and I'm using Claude. Yep. Whether whatever product you're selling, I should be buying. Because the truth is I can potentially recreate what you've done unless you are some kind of ninja prompter. Yeah. That's doing something else. I think there's two things that are important. And so first is on our consumer finance product, we've built a lot of proprietary AI agents. We started to train our own models and do a number of things that are very proprietary and specific for that use case.

6:59We'll start doing the same thing on the research side. The second piece of this, though, is there's no monopoly on good ideas. And so no different than a researcher who sits around a table and says, hey, you know, I wonder if the correlation between where the CEO went to school and the stock market performance, let me go do that research. Right. You still have to come up with what these things are. And so what we think is really interesting is actually having the AI go and try to figure that out and try to understand where are the things that are most interesting? Where are the kind of the hidden insights?

7:24And if you go and you look, some of the research that we published this morning at ProCapInsights.com, you can go and see there's things that no one's talking about yet. For example, what are the three companies that are supposed to benefit from both the Iran oil shock and the tariff refunds? Now you start to get into this complexity where instead of taking a single narrative, you start to actually try to stack these things on top of each other and look for overlaps. So there you have it. My worldview currently revolves around Bitcoin and artificial intelligence, two automation technologies. These two technologies arm an individual like me or you with everything we need.

8:00AI is offense. Bitcoin is defense. A digital toolbox to make money and then protect that economic value on your personal balance sheet. We are incredibly fortunate for all of us to be living through this moment right now. Everyone that's probably watching this already knows Bitcoin's that winning asset. I think AI is too. And when you put these two things together, it's like supercharging what you can do in finance. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. And I'll see all of you live from the desk of Anthony Pompliano tomorrow.