Data Says Inflation Is NOT The Problem Anymore

0:00Hello, everyone. Inflation came in much lower than expectations this morning. Coinbase just launched eight different products to take on Wall Street, and over 1 million military members, they got a big surprise last night called a warrior dividend. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:24Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. Right now, we have 41 ,330 of you that already hit the subscribe button. But you, you sitting at home who hasn't hit it yet, hit it right now. Help us out. Let's get into today's show. All right, ladies and gentlemen, the government reported inflation metrics this morning and the world got set on fire. The reason is because these numbers came in freezing cold compared to economists' expectations. CPI, that forecast from economists was 3.1 % year over year, but instead the data came in at 2.7%.

0:57It's a 40 basis points lower than what economists predicted. Core CPI, which some people like even more, expectations were 3.0%. The actual numbers came in at 2.6 % year over year. It's another 40 basis points below expectations. Now, as you guys know, as I've continued to say, deflation is smacking the US economy in the face. Tariffs are deflationary. AI and robotics are deflationary. And deportations are deflationary. Too many people have had their brains absolutely broken by politics. They don't even understand what's happening right now. Truflation, the most accurate inflation measurement in my opinion, they're showing inflation at 2.5 % this morning.

1:33And you can see from the reaction of the mainstream media that everyone's been convinced inflation's going higher and all of the current economic policies that are being implemented, those could not possibly help bring down prices. Take a watch as the inflation numbers came out this morning. The number of the morning, the CPI, oh, maybe coming in a little bit better than expected. 2.7%, a little light here. I'm not calling, I'm just reading the headlines here. Year over year, 2.7, X Food and Energy Core 2.6, so 4 tenths off. That is a very good number here, and it really I have not looked at the internals.

2:08I'll look at them now, but it suggests that the internals are good as well. Let's see, year over year over the last 12 months, there is no month to month, but some guys will be able to calculate it. Seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 % over the two months. So, correct my math here, Michael Santoli, but 0.2 divided by two is 0.1. Yeah. So therefore, that's a very, very low monthly rate here. The index for shelter increase, you did get a really nice decline in shelter, which was 0.2. Now, while these year-over-year numbers are encouraging, Professor Jason Furman points out that the numbers of shorter timelines, not year-over-year, but even shorter, those are even more encouraging.

2:50He writes that core CPI annual rates, if you take the last three months, we're only at 1.6%. It's the lowest since February of 2021. If you take six months, that's 2.6%, lowest since July of 25. And if you take 12 months, that's 2.6%, lowest since March of 21. Geiger Capital shows that core CPI in November came in lower than all 62 forecasters in Bloomberg's survey predicted. And core CPI is at the lowest level since 2021. Warren Pies hits the nail even harder. He explains that all three broad vectors, shelter, oil, and labor, they're all disinflating. Data is data. People may not like these facts, but it does not change them.

3:29Harvard professor of economics, Ken Rogoff, he said it best on CNN this morning when he said the following. I mean, I was surprised it was a better number than anyone was expecting. Look, inflation's been very high. It's stayed high. It has not been coming down. But, you know, people were expecting it to be above 3 percent. It was well below 3 percent. I mean, I think the president will take this as good news. The investors will think that interest rates will get cut more. So, you know, it was it was a positive news. There's no other way to spin it. I agree. There's no other way to spin it. This is all positive news.

4:06Again, politics broke the brains of a lot of people. Democrats are predicting inflation to be over five percent a year from now. And Republicans, they're predicting the number to be around one point five percent. The truth's probably somewhere in between. being independent minded is really important. Your job as an investor is to tune out all of the noise. Look at the data, read the source materials, allocate your capital based on what is likely to happen, not based on what you want to happen. There's a big difference there. Investors have to be truth seekers. Politics gets in the way of that pursuit.

4:38Inflation is coming down. Deflationary forces are assaulting the economy. And my guess is that GDP growth is going to accelerate in coming months and asset prices are going much higher. All right, if you've been watching this show for any amount of time, you know that I believe crypto is going to be dead in a decade and crypto companies are assaulting Wall Street. At the same exact time, Wall Street companies are trying to figure out how to get into the crypto game. Everyone's going to meet in the middle. The crypto guys are coming from a digital native perspective. They were selling all these tokens to all kinds of different people.

5:08The Wall Street guys, frankly, they ignored it. Then they fought it. And now they're trying to get in the game. But everyone's going to meet in the middle and we're just going to call it finance. No one's going to talk about crypto in a decade. Coinbase yesterday is probably the single best example. Now, in order to understand what Coinbase is doing, remember, Coinbase has 100 million verified accounts globally. They do$8 billion in revenue per year, and they're growing their top line by more than 40 % year over year. That's a huge deal. But Coinbase has drastically increased their ambition over the last couple of months.

5:38And you can see it in the way that they're talking and in the eight different products that they launched last night. So Brian Armstrong yesterday, he said, a new era of Coinbase is here. I want us to be the number one financial services app in the world. He didn't say he wants to be the number one crypto company in the world. He says the number one financial services app in the world. That is a big deal. There's this idea of a super app where you can do everything in your financial life in one single app. We've seen the rise of those in the East, in China and other places in Asia. US companies have been talking about this for a long time, but no one's been able to pull it off.

6:07We see companies like Coinbase and Robinhood. They're now going after this. But also we've even seen companies like X and Elon Musk with X money and XAI. They want to get in this game as well. This is the big competition on Wall Street. Who is going to be able to take these digital technologies and build the super app? Coinbase is trying to do that. Now, I previously have talked to people at Coinbase about this. Right now, the company is a$65 billion market cap. It's a huge company, but they're not satisfied. I first realized this when I talked to Max Bransberg. Max is the head of consumer products at Coinbase.

6:39And he started talking about this idea of being an everything app. An everything app simply would allow you to trade crypto, stocks, prediction markets, perps, everything in one place. But they also would do things like a cash account and use stable coins and put it all in one single centralized location. The way that they want to do this is something that Max told me is a DeFi mullet. What does that mean? You get one interface. It's the trusted Coinbase brand and the UI. But in the backend, you don't know whether it's centralized services or it's decentralized services. You simply know that you're able to buy stocks, buy crypto, use perps, and do things with stablecoins.

7:14But regardless of what the plumbing is, you're trusting the Coinbase interface. That's their plan. And yesterday, they started to reveal behind the curtain how they're going to do this. So what did they do? They launched eight different things. They did stock trading and tokenization in the Coinbase app. Coinbase is no longer just a crypto company. They now allow you to buy stocks in the exact same place. Again, this is the competition on Wall Street. Then they launched prediction markets. So now you have crypto, stocks, and prediction markets all in one place. They launched futures and perp trading, Solana Dex trading.

7:46They launched Coinbase Business, which now allows all businesses to have an all-in-one financial platform designed for startups and small businesses. They launched Coinbase Advisor, which is an AI-driven advisor that can actually answer your questions in the app. They launched the Base app, which now is available to anyone, and it brings all of their on-chain activity into a mobile app. And then lastly, they launched Coinbase custom stablecoins, where any business in the world can now have a branded stablecoin, but use Coinbase's infrastructure to be able to do it. Eight different things they launched because they're simply going after one thing.

8:18Who is going to win the super app? What company is going to be able to provide everything to everybody? That obviously is going to be very valuable. But here's what's interesting. Robinhood, on the other hand, started in the stock brokerage business. Coinbase started in the crypto business, but they're both meeting in the middle. They both want stocks, crypto, prediction markets, perps, stable coins, payments, and deposits. This is the big game. But one thing no one's talking about, wait till JP Morgan gets in the game. Wait till Fidelity gets in the game. Wait till Goldman Sachs gets in the game.

8:50You think they're not going to try to figure out how to have prediction markets, stable coins, perps, and everything else? Of course they are. And the thing that I think is most interesting is this is how capitalism works. Competition drives innovation. innovation ultimately leads to the best experience for users. So what I'm most excited about here is, regardless of whether Coinbase, Robinhood, JPMorgan, or anybody else wins, I know that right now, the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the world are going to improve because technologists are going to continue to compete to try to figure out who can serve you best.

9:23That's the beauty of innovation and that's the beauty of capitalism. And aren't we so fortunate that all these companies are going to spend billions and billions and billions of dollars trying to improve our lives and our relationship with money. As many of you know, I'm very sympathetic for U.S. veterans. Anyone who serves in the military, I think that we should do everything we possibly can to help them. And last night, 1.4 million soldiers across the various branches, they got a surprise. The President of the United States was standing there, giving a speech, and he announced something called the Warrior Dividend.

9:55This idea is to take$1 ,776, put it into a stimulus-like check, and hand it over to 1.4 million soldiers, almost like a little bit of a Christmas present or a warrior dividend. Take a listen to how President Trump described it. Tonight, I am also proud to announce that more than 1 ,450 ,000, think of this, 1 ,450 ,000 military service members will receive a special we call warrior dividend before Christmas, a warrior dividend in honor of our nation's founding in 1776. We are sending every soldier$1 ,776. Think of that. And the checks are already on the way. Nobody understood that one until about 30 minutes ago.

10:49So now my takeaway from this is if we're helping veterans, I like it, but it still goes back to this idea. It's government spending. So where's the money coming from? If it's coming from some of the revenue from tariffs, great idea. Go and actually increase tariffs, get more money, hand that over to people in the actual US economy. I like that idea. But if instead we're simply just printing net new money, that's probably not as good of an idea. So I love the idea of a warrior dividend. I love the idea of taking care of the veterans. And I love 1 ,776, the year 1776. There's lots of memes all interwoven into this story.

11:24But ultimately, my big question, where's the money coming from? And does it increase the national debt or not? That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. I always appreciate you subscribing on YouTube. Hit the button right now, and I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.