Is The Bitcoin Bull Run OVER?

0:00Hello, everyone. Today's Bitcoin Day. We're getting hot and heavy into everyone's favorite digital currency. I'll explain whether I think the Bitcoin bull market's over, why Harvard economists have been wrong about Bitcoin for years, and what the true cost to American citizens has been ever since we left the gold standard in 1971. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:29Before we get into today's show, remember we have 18 ,014 subscribers on this channel. We're growing fast, but my goal is 1 million and I need your help to be able to get there. Please make sure you subscribe and let's get into it today. Capital allocators got attention spans of ants, and now they seem to have short-term amnesia as well. In recent days, Bitcoin has fallen from its latest all-time high of$124 ,000, and that has sparked a debate on whether the Bitcoin cycle is over or not. Now, does it matter that Bitcoin's up 20 % year-to-date or that Bitcoin's up nearly 2x in the last year? Nope, of course not.

1:02The media and the market commentators, they are too busy injecting fear and uncertainty into the market. They want to know if the pullback signal is the end of this cycle. They say that maybe the Bitcoin hype was completely unsubstantiated. Maybe the Bitcoin bears were right that the digital currency could never fulfill its promise. But of course, this is all noise. The data is overwhelming. The Bitcoin bull market is not over yet. Let's start with the 30 different Bitcoin bull market peak indicators from Coinglass. We've not hit a single one of them yet. Zero for 30. Zilch. None of them. It's hard for the bull market to be over if we haven't hit any of the market peak indicators.

1:37Now, we also know that Bitcoin tends to cool off in late August and all of September during bull markets. Investor Yannick Morar writes that in each of the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull market years, July, August, September, and October, green, green, red, and green, respectively. The same is likely to occur this year, he says. We might see a pullback in September, followed by a final 20-30 % gain in October and into early November. And now if you are someone who is merely focused on the short term, analyst Frank Fetter points out that Bitcoin appears to be oversold at the moment, according to the Relative Strength Index.

2:11So the recent drawdown in price is likely part of the normal volatility in Bitcoin bull markets. We used to get multiple 30 % drawdowns in a bull market, but now we tend to only get one or two of those large drawdowns. Instead, we continue to see 5 % to 15 % drops in price, which of course are healthy. They help to clear out leverage, and they allow the asset to set itself up for the next leg higher in price. And you can see this reset clearly in the dashboard assembled by Frank Fetter. All four metrics are either neutral to cool, which means the market is still in great shape, and it should continue to appreciate in price through the coming months.

2:45And now here's a crazy stat that will blow your mind from Fidelity's Chris Coupere. He writes,

3:18now getting to a market cap size and a market education level where every market participant can now prudently allocate capital to Bitcoin. This, of course, will also bring down volatility over time. It's not rocket science. So I went on CNBC Squawk Box this morning to explain it all. Here's what I had to say. Well, I think that Bitcoin is a very volatile asset. And what we know is in bull markets, usually there are these drawbacks, but the drawbacks historically have been 30 % drawdowns. And these haven't been 30%. These have been more like 10, 15 % drawdowns. And so what I think we're watching is a market that's maturing.

3:50Institutions are coming in. It's getting bigger. And so what you're starting to see is kind of muted volatility. And that means that people who are hoping Bitcoin is going to go to$400 ,000 or$500 ,000 in a bull market, this cycle is probably not going to happen. But also people who think that you're going to get, you know, kind of 85%, 90 % drawdowns in the bear markets. That's probably not going to happen either. OK, so if neither of those things are happening, maybe it looks a little bit more like what you've always said, gold. Well, I think that Bitcoin has gone from a contrarian trade to consensus trade.

4:16In order to do that, you need it to become less volatile because for institutions, what they want is they want something that is more volatile than the assets they hold. But they can't have something that is going up, you know, hundreds of percent and down 90 percent. They have to constantly report kind of a mark to market. And so what I think you're watching here is just the maturation of this asset. And then what I also think is pretty interesting is the holder base is rotating. And so you went from kind of a pure retail audience that, you know, frankly, is subject to fear and greed to now you have a lot of institutions that in public companies, they're not going to sell.

4:47You have the ETFs. They're likely going to act very differently. And so I think that this is all kind of natural and a good sign for Bitcoin in the long run. What do you think the floor is from where we are right now? And what do you think the upside is, given that, as you said, a lot of folks have come on our broadcast, Kathy Wood and others who would tell you that, you know, she thinks this is supposed to get to 500 ,000 or a million dollars a coin. Zero and infinity. Yeah. Well, I think that Bitcoin will definitely go to a million at some point in the future. I just think this cycle. Right.

5:19It's very unlikely that it's going to go to a million dollars. And so what is the floor? I don't know. Right. What I do know is right now at one hundred twelve, hundred thirteen thousand dollars, it's pretty oversold. And so I would expect that you have two things lining up. You've got kind of the overselling of Bitcoin and you're headed into kind of September, October, which is usually a pretty good time, especially if it is the year after having. But also, if you look at like the VIX seasonality chart, usually right about now, you'll start to see the VIX really start to kind of move upwards and we get a lot more volatility.

5:47And so I just think that it's August. People are on vacation. They're tired. They're, you know, not paying attention. And things kind of just draw down. And starting in September, we should see Bitcoin kind of come back alive again. Now, regardless of what you are hearing from friends, family, or the media, I do not believe the Bitcoin bull market is over. It appears we are watching the seasonal cool off for the asset before the final leg up in this bull market. October and November should be fun. But in the meantime, we must pay our dues by holding through some short-term choppiness. A small price to pay, in my opinion, for an asset that has a 10-year compound annual growth rate of over 85%.

6:24Oh boy. Harvard economist Ken Rogoff had a wild take on Exeter this week regarding Bitcoin. He writes, Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist that said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth$100 than$100K. Dumb. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic that the U.S. coming to its census about sensible cryptocurrency regulation. Why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities? He's talking about the dollar. Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction's medium of choice in the$20 trillion global underground economy.

6:56What's he talking about here? This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem. Oh, he's shilling. Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator-in-chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies, seemingly without consequence, given the blatant conflict of interest. So talking about Congress holding stocks, I was confused there. Now, of course, all Ken had to say is I had an opinion. I was wrong. Let's move on. The Bitcoiners were right. But they can't do that.

7:27They can't simply just say I was wrong and I missed something. They instead have to have the backhanded compliments. They have to constantly have the slurs that are used. And they basically have to insinuate that the only reason Bitcoin is winning is because it's illegal, criminals are winning, and the president is corrupt. Now, of course, whether you think that or not, it doesn't matter. The market has determined Bitcoin is valuable. And Ken Rogoff, you're wrong. Just come out and say that or shh, look at the scoreboard and be quiet. Bitcoin is not going anywhere. And no matter how bad your takes are, you ain't going to be able to stop it.

7:57But of course, you can contrast Ken Rogoff with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. He recently went on a podcast and he said that Bitcoin's going to a million dollars at some point in the future. Take a listen. You know, the rough idea I have in my head is like, we'll see a million dollar Bitcoin by 2030. And there's high error bars around these things. But just to give you a couple of data points, right? It's like, we're starting to see regulatory clarity emerge in the United States, which I think is a bellwether for the rest of the G20. Have the Genius Act passed now for stablecoins, but this market structure bill is being debated in the Senate.

8:28Fingers crossed something could happen by the end of this year. That would be a huge milestone. The United States government now has a strategic Bitcoin reserve. So that is it you asked me five years ago that would have been kind of like vision board And someone would have said you're crazy like the United States government's not going to officially hold Bitcoin But if you know if they do that which there's not an executive order to do I think a bunch of other countries are gonna do that. We've seen a lot of interest from sovereigns, right? Coinbase actually provides Crypto services to about 140 government entities that believe it or not like at both federal state local and internationally So governments are now getting more and more engaged in this and you can imagine the big pools of capital around the world and There's a lot of so I don't I don't see the regulatory thing going away That was one of the big risks is like is the government going to shut this down?

9:16I think that risk has been severely diminished and then You know is there gonna be some flaw found in the Bitcoin protocol? I think that's been severely combed over at this point We need to make sure we upgrade it to a post-quantum cryptography, but we look to curves already post-quantum or no They are theoretically, I believe. I don't know. Really good to nail that down. It's a little untested, but yeah, I believe there is a path where the Bitcoin core team and Ethereum and so on, everyone, they're looking at proposals now to upgrade to even more. Definitely post-contact. Yes, yes. So yeah, I think the list of kind of risks is getting diminished.

9:49And at the same time, the amount of demand, like the amount of institutional money just sitting on the sidelines waiting for this next bill to land, you know, these are the The big institutions I talk to, they're holding 1 % of the portfolio in Bitcoin. And I'm like, what would it be to 5 to 10? And they say, regulatory clarity. That's it. So there you have it. Take your pick, Western man. Who do you want to believe? Do you want to believe the economist who sat behind his academic desk for years, pontificating about things that he has no skin in the game on? Or do you want to believe the guy who's been building in the industry for nearly 15 years?

10:22He's built a multi-billion dollar company that has onboarded over 100 million people into this new asset class. Me personally, the economists couldn't care what they say, but the builders, they're the ones who are closest to the problem, they're the ones closest to the technology, and they're the ones who have been right. And so I'll listen to the builders over the economists any day of the week, and I'll take Brian Armstrong over Ken Rogoff today. Everyone's all excited about artificial intelligence, but one of my favorite applications is the ability to use AI to create awesome creative, awesome videos.

10:55And there is nothing better that I saw this week that came from TFTC, Marty Bent, Elijah Finley, and Terrible Trader on X. They put together a video about what happened when we left the gold standard and the negative impact on the average American family. Take a listen to this. America's gold was supposed to back the dollar. Leaving the gold standard was the most costly mistake we ever made.

11:23What was so bad about gold? It kept them honest, but they wanted power. You know, kid, folks today think this is just how life's supposed to be. What do you mean? Back in my day, one job could feed a family. My mother stayed home, father worked, and we ate together every night. Didn't realize how good we had it. After the World War, they promised gold-backed dollars, but they broke that promise. They printed paper backed by nothing, funded wars we couldn't afford and shouldn't have been involved in. But France caught on and sent a warship to get back their gold. Truth is, if more countries followed, our vaults would be empty and game over.

12:08I have directed the Secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold. Turns out, when you fake the money, everything else follows, and you screw the next generation over. And it snowballs, kid. Prices shot up, paychecks didn't, life got tougher, and nobody knew why. We tried raising our kids the old way, but we didn't have the time or the money. So you outsourced parenting? Yeah, I guess you could say we did. Government schools raised them, and the TV taught them bad morals. They learned debt, not savings. Bought houses they couldn't afford.

12:48Played video games. Gambling, antidepressants, and crimes. Families fractured. Divorce rates doubled. Birth rates plummeted. Things got so bad, people started financing Chipotle. Financing a burrito? Yeah, it's getting bad. obesity people eating cheap slop instead of real food we got softer sicker and lazier a nation in decline but it didn't happen overnight when nixon left the gold standard we traded sound money for a lifetime of debt how will they ever pay it back i don't think they plan to both sides keep spending like there's no tomorrow and leaving the bill to your generation We didn't get it right, but you've still got a chance.

13:34So take the reins, kid. Hold your ground and don't give up on sound money.

13:46Now, I got to say this. One, they're right. Two, the pain that the average American citizen has felt since we abandoned the gold standard is very real. Look at wealth inequality. Look at the home affordability crisis. look at the exploding prices of groceries and many other goods and services. It is all bad. But also, how cool is it that we can now use artificial intelligence, spend minimal amount of money, put some time and effort, little bit of spit shine into creating one of these videos, and then out pops a meme that is the message. And this video has gone viral online because it's true and it's creative.

14:20And that, my friends, is the future of content. And so Marty, Elijah, terrible trader, TFTC, kudos to you guys. leaving the gold standard was a bad idea, but creating this video was a great one. That's it for today. Please remember that we have 18 ,014 subscribers. I look every single day. I want to see that number go up. And I need your help to be able to get to my goal of 1 million subscribers. So do me a favor, go punch that little subscribe button. It's the minimal effort, but it really means a lot to me. So make sure you're subscribed and I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.