Is This A Market CRASH Or Just A Bull Run CORRECTION?

0:00Hello, everyone. There's blood in the streets. Stocks and Bitcoin are falling fast. Investors are panicking, and Elon Musk just said one of the wildest things he's ever said. If he's right, humanity will never be the same. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:25Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to ultimately get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. We currently have 39 ,385. Before we get to a million, we got to get to 50 ,000. That's where you come in. Hit the subscribe button. Help us get to our goal. Let's get into today's show. All right, ladies and gentlemen, Barron Rothschild, the legend, once said, the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets. And we saw nothing but blood yesterday across financial markets. The S &P was down one and a half percent. NASDAQ fell almost two and a and Bitcoin was down about 5 % over the last 24 hours.

1:01These are big, big, big numbers for these assets to fall in a single trading period. Interestingly, the S &P 500 actually displayed some very rare price action yesterday. The Market Stats writes, S &P gapped up more than 1.5 % to start the day, but then it closed down more than 1.5%. Before yesterday, that had only happened twice in history, October 2008 and April of 2025. As I recently heard Chris Berninski say, this roller coaster goes both ways, baby. And the index showed us that yesterday. But now we're left to wonder, why are we experiencing such abnormal volatility? Well, Alex Kruger explains that we had extreme price action yesterday.

1:42Equities sold off on extraordinary volume. But there was no news. The VIX went up to 28. You don't see that very often. No specific catalyst, especially not an obvious catastrophic one. Yet stocks are still falling materially in a single day. But this volatility makes a lot of sense when you realize that the fear and greed index was sitting at six last night. I don't know if I've ever seen the index that low. A six on a scale of one to 100? That's crazy. Investors are scared. It's easy to recognize that. But what are they scared of? What is the problem? That's a much harder question to answer.

2:16Is it the weak labor market data? Could it be the worries about AI CapEx spending? Or maybe, you know what? Maybe it's the belief that inflation is higher and the Fed won't cut in December. No one knows, not me, not you. None of those things though, strike me as a reason for the S &P to drop 1.5 % in a day and the NASDAQ to lose 2.5 % in the same timeframe. But here's the thing, regardless of whether we have a specific reason, remember Baron Rothschild? He told us to buy when there's blood in the streets. But how exactly do you do it? It's one thing to say it, it's another thing to act on it. Famed investor Howard Marks, he explained his philosophy of investing during market drawdowns during a 2018 interview at Wharton.

2:56He said, my vision is that when the stuff hits the fan and there's blood in the streets, most people, well, they say, we're not gonna buy until the knife stops falling, until the dust settles, until all the uncertainty has been resolved. But the trouble is that once that happens, the price will already have rebounded. So we wanna buy at a time of upset and while the knife is still falling. And I think that the refusal to catch a falling knife is a rationalization for inaction. It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains, but you have to do it carefully. What an incredible insight from Howard Marks.

3:30Most people try to avoid catching the falling knife, but Howard Marks realizes that that is not possible. That's the type of alpha you get from someone who has built one of the best investing careers in history, a multi-billionaire, straight contrarian take that creates billions of dollars in profit. You have to realize that Marks and Oaktree, they were always willing to buy assets on the way down, keep dollar cost averaging lower as the prices continued to fall, and then they continued to buy on the other side of the recovery. That V-shaped recovery, they bought through the whole thing. That type of conviction during a moment of chaos can only be built through strong analysis that highlights how undervalued an asset is.

4:07Most people aren't built to be greedy when others are fearful. That's what you're supposed to do. So where do we go from here? Can you actually pull it off? Well, the short answer is that no one knows where we're going to go. But Carson Group's Ryan Dietrich pointed out earlier this week that the stock market very rarely peaks in the month of October. So history suggests that the bull market is not actually over yet. People are panicking, but maybe it's just a short-term thing. If the historical trend was wrong, this would only be the seventh time since 1950 that the market peaked in the month of October.

4:38Never say never though. Just when you think you have financial markets figured out, something will happen and it will make you question everything again. It's happened to me many times and sure has happened to you as well. That's the beauty of investing. It's an intellectually stimulating game because the puzzle never ends. But before I let you go, I'm gonna leave you with two charts from Ryan Dietrich that'll leave you with maybe a little bit more optimism. Maybe you'll end up actually saying it might not be as bad as everyone thinks. The first is that the performance of the stock market on Thursdays has recently been horrible.

5:09Week after week, Thursdays have been a horrible day. So yesterday's big drop on a Thursday is less surprising when you realize the intra-week cyclicality that's been at play. In addition, Dietrich points out that November historically bottoms on November 20th before the seasonal late month rally. What's more interesting is one of the weaker parts of the year is November 18th through the 20th that looks to have played out this year. But now he asks, will the rally play out as well? So yesterday was a bloodbath in markets, red everywhere. The seasonality data suggests that we could have the worst behind us though.

5:44No one can predict the future. so we're all going to have to find out together where the roller coaster wants to take us next. Elon Musk recently gave an interview and he said that artificial intelligence and humanoid robots are going to eliminate poverty. Take a listen to this. But AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty. And Tesla won't be the only one that makes them. I think Tesla will pioneer this, but there will be many other companies that make humanoid robots. But there is only basically one way to make everyone wealthy and that is AI and robotics. Now that may sound like hyperbole, but actually he's got a point here.

6:19You can see that poverty, like extreme poverty has been crashing for a lot of people around the world. Now, how can he pull this off? How can AI and humanoids do it? Well, someone like Elon, he's superhuman, at least according to Sequoia's Sean McGuire. And he works relentlessly, Sean says. Here's how Sean describes why Elon is so special. Elon is obviously an individual and like one of the most talented humans of all time. I'm a visionary who works harder than I can even imagine, you know, works 16 hour days, seven days a week. He just works when he's awake. I mean, and I think maybe even sometimes when he's sleeping or he doesn't sleep much, but I've tried to keep up with him a couple of days and like, I'm a pretty fit guy.

7:04I literally can't keep up with him physically. And so anyways, Elon as an individual is one of the most talented people in the world. But I view Elon as almost like there's a second thing. There's Elon the collective, which is probably about 20 people. I'm not going to name any of them. And there's roughly 20 people that have been working with him for a very long time. They've built unbelievable amounts of trust. They know how to, they can almost read his mind and they know what he would want to have done in some situation. and then they also know when they need to escalate a question to him. And you can't build this quickly.

7:48It kind of takes a decade to really trust someone and to test the limits of what they can do and test that they can do things at the highest possible level and almost be a proxy for you. And I've actually never seen another entrepreneur that has done this the way that Elon has. So there you have it. Elon obviously works really hard, but a big reason why he gets so much done is because he's got this group of about 20 people around him that work very closely with Elon. But many of those people have been working with him for a long time. They know how he thinks, they know what he wants done, and they're able to work as a team.

8:23But some of the people who've worked directly for him, they've got incredible stories. For example, take this anecdote from Chris Bake, who recently said, when I reported to Elon, we would have X product meetings at 5 or 6 p.m. That's because he was with the Tesla team for 10 hours before that. Then I would have my one-on-one check-in with him. That would be at 10 p.m. But that would regularly get moved to 11 p.m. or midnight or 1 a.m. Usually around 2 a.m. He'd go take a nap for a couple of hours in the office and then he'd repeat the same schedule again the next day with a completely different set of companies.

8:56He did this seven days a week. Imagine doing that. Imagine literally spending 16-hour days, seven days a week. Of course, you're gonna get a lot done. And then you add in the fact that Elon Musk is intelligent, he's able to corral capital, and he's able to understand what the biggest problems in society are. Maybe he's actually right here. Artificial intelligence and humanoid robots? If we could go ahead and eliminate poverty, wouldn't that be incredible for every single human in the world? All right, everyone knows it's not fun right now for Bitcoiners. We saw the lowest reading in Bitcoin history on the fear and greed index yesterday.

9:30It was single digits. This is a different measurement than the stock market. This fear and greed index is Bitcoin specific. We've never seen it go this low. Not even when FTX imploded and people thought the industry was cooked. Seeing a single digit reading on the fear and greed index, I don't feel good. Quentin Franco shows that short-term holders are underwater, but they're more underwater today than ever before. During 2020's COVID crash, 92 % of the coins, they were at a loss. During the 2022 FTX collapse, 94 % were at a loss. But today, 99 % of the coins are at a loss. That's the highest short-term holder capitulation ever recorded.

10:08Now, big reason for the downward price pressure is selling from large holders. People who got a lot of coins, they're going and they're selling. Charles Edwards says, Bitcoin has never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in all of history, in the entire history of Coinbase, more yesterday than ever before. The last 45 days, they look like a nightmare for short-term speculators. Thankfully, though, Edward Mora shows that we just got the highest one-hour volume of trading on Binance since the October 10th liquidation event, which he says are things you need to see at the bottom of a drawdown.

10:39I don't disagree. People need to step in. They need to buy. And you need this type of buying to help a market recover after Glassnode shows that Bitcoin realized losses have surged to levels last seen during the FTX collapse, with short-term holders driving the bulk of the capitulation. The scale and speed of these losses reflect a meaningful washout of marginal demand as recent buyers unwind into the drawdown. So here's the deal. This stinks. People are not happy. People are feeling the pain. Price volatility never feels good, especially when it goes against you. And Bitcoin now is unfortunately prone to shake the market from time to time.

11:14We're down about 32 % from the all-time high. We've seen two other drawdowns of the same depth in this bull market. The question is, is the bull market actually over? Or is this a reset that we actually need it? I don't know. you don't know, and no one else knows. But it doesn't feel good either way. Stay safe out there, my friends, and remember, this too shall pass. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. We've got just over 39 ,000 subscribers, and with your help, we'll get to our goal of 1 million. I'll see you guys live on Monday from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.