Q4 Is Here And Markets Should EXPLODE Much Higher

0:00Hello everyone! We are in a structural bull market and boy is it fun! and now I've got data that suggests things are only going higher in the coming months. Jordy Visser is going to join us to explain why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade in the market, and the recent seasonality data suggests that volatility is coming in the month of October. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:30Before we get into today's show, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube, but we only have 26 ,601. Go ahead and hit that subscribe button and help us reach our goal. Let's get back into the show. Ladies and gentlemen, there is no better feeling than a bull market. Your portfolio goes higher day after day. The media, they're falling over themselves in excitement. Social media lights on fire with people taking screenshots of their net worth. The bears, they spend their time screeching that a big market crashes right around the corner. and your barber, your taxi driver, and your neighbor, they all pitch you their latest stock pick.

1:04It's straight pandemonium. And bull markets, man, are they fun. And that's exactly where we are right now. Stocks, Bitcoin, gold, nearly every other asset, they all continue to surge to all-time highs throughout 2025. But just how good is this bull market? How does it compare to past markets? 314's Warren Pice writes that this is the fourth strongest rally versus all other bull markets throughout history. Only 1982, 2009, and 2020 were greater. Also, this rally is the strongest recovery excluding a recessionary case. 116 days straight without a 6 % pullback, that means this rally has gone farther than all but two early stage bull markets, 1966 and 1957.

1:46So this data confirms what we're all feeling. The current bull market's very rare. The tariff fears earlier this year created an artificial suppression of stocks. It's like a beach ball underwater. That laid the groundwork for the historic market recovery that we're now witnessing. Sure, there are many people who will argue that the recent price appreciation is unsustainable. That's fine. They'll point to numerous data points suggesting stocks are overvalued. That's fine too. You're gonna hear them say that a reversion to the mean is essentially guaranteed. But wait a second, what if they're all wrong?

2:16What if the exact opposite is true? So I wanna challenge each one of you that are watching this to ask yourself one question. What does the future look like if the bull market is actually just beginning? What if everything goes right for investors? These are the questions that I'm asking myself, and they're not rooted in some fantasy world. Carson Group's Ryan Dietrich shows that Q4 is the single best quarter of the year historically. It's not even really close, he says. The last quarter of the year, which we're headed into, the last quarter of the year has an average return that is nearly twice as strong as any other quarter of the year.

2:48Ryan goes on to explain that Q4 has a positive return 14 of the last 15 times, as long as the S &P 500 was up 10 % or more going into the final three months of the year. Still not convinced? Well, we can see that 2025 is following a similar path to 1999. Revere Asset Management's Connor Bates shows it perfectly in this chart right here. It compares 96 to 2001 timeframe with 2023 to present day. Now, I doubt that I got 2020 vision, but those two markets look visually similar to me. Given the trend, this comparison would suggest that there is still significant appreciation left in the bull market as long as the 1999 repeat market scenario plays out.

3:27And remember, all of this analysis and stock market performance is happening with the backdrop of the Fed's recent interest rate cuts. The U.S. Central Bank is reducing the cost of capital at the same time that stocks are hitting all-time highs. A lot of people are worried about that. But that development is hardly bearish and instead suggests equities will keep setting new record highs throughout the end of the year. That'll be great for equity investors, but wait a second. There's another asset that's sounding an alarm bell that can't be ignored either. That asset is gold. Mike Zuccardi shows central banks globally have been buying up gold in droves.

3:59This is just an insane amount of demand for the precious metal. Analyst Marco Papic highlights that central bank activity is about to help gold flip U.S. Treasuries as the most popular reserve asset around the world. Think about how crazy that is. This milestone nearly seemed impossible for more than 25 years, two and a half decades. The sound money regime was dominant until 1971 throughout human history. And then we watched the explosion of fiat happen as soon as the U.S. went off the gold standard, and it seemed like sound money would be a forgotten footnote of history. But now we're seeing a return to sound money properties through gold and Bitcoin.

4:31The team at Blockland shows gold's dominance priced in U.S. treasuries here. The trend is clear, and the reasoning, in my opinion, could not be more obvious. It's simply that central banks have abused the opportunity given to them by citizens. They simply printed too much money. They destroyed the purchasing power of the people. Citizens are now choosing to vote with their dollars. They're moving from fiat-based assets into sound money assets. And the same citizens are also using stocks as a way to benefit from the insane currency debasement that's happening across every single market in the world.

5:02Stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Those three assets will allow you to benefit from the ridiculous, undisciplined behavior coming from the central banks. Buy them and just chill. They're all going higher. This bull market is not over. Cheap money is coming, and the world needs new technology like artificial intelligence and Bitcoin to navigate the next two decades. So I hope that each of you is able to ignore the bears. Don't get sucked into their intellectual nonsense. They're wrong. Yeah, that's it. They're just wrong. They don't understand the market or the economy. These individuals are stuck in the past.

5:35In my opinion, the optimists are gonna win. Quite literally, I'm betting my personal portfolio on it. This weekend, Jordy Visser sat down with my brother, John, and he explained that Bitcoin is the purest AI trade available in the market. Now, many of you may think that that's a surprising thing to say, but take a listen to Jordy's logic here. Corrections are gonna happen because the market is being driven by one investment theme. And until we start to see the PMIs widen out, broaden out, which I think will happen, as I've said repeatedly over the course of the next year, the S &P 500 is being driven by about 10 % of the stocks.

6:10They're all related to the supply chain of AI. So whenever the AI theme, let's say, runs into profit-taking mode for a period of time. And retail has been all over the AI theme. They've been all over Palantir. They've been all over NVIDIA, Micron, all of these names. Once you reach a point where profit-taking is just normal, I think you're going to see the entire space come down because there's really nothing positive for people to hang their hats on outside of AI at this point. Got it. Are you bullish on Bitcoin towards the end of the year? So Bitcoin fits in with this theme. And I want to equate because I get a lot of outreach from people.

6:44So Bitcoin's been kind of stuck here for a period of time. I've said repeatedly that for me, Bitcoin is the purest AI trade as AI goes through the complete disruption of all businesses. And the only moat that's left at the end of the day is a store of value that is in the digital economy. Gold will continue to have its strength, but at the same point, Bitcoin fits in. So whenever the AI trade reaches a profit-taking mode where retail gets hurt, I think everyone should expect Bitcoin to go down. It's not just Bitcoin. It's Solana. It's Ethereum. There's been a lot of speculation in the Bitcoin miners.

7:22I think we just reached a point where, again, we've sold off. The AI trade is still in the very early stages, despite all the fears that come out. So it makes sense for people for Bitcoin to have corrections. And I just want to remind people, NVIDIA is up over a thousand percent since ChatGPT's launch. During that time period, which is less than three years, we're almost at the three year anniversary of ChatGPT's launch. You've had five corrections of 20 percent or more in NVIDIA before it went up back up to all time highs. Bitcoin's going to be the same thing. So you can take NVIDIA, you can take Bitcoin, you can kind of put them together as there.

7:59And I think people should start realizing that that is the reality, is that we're in a situation right now where as Nvidia goes, as the AI trade goes, Bitcoin to some degree is going to be part of that as well. I got to say, when I first heard Jordy say that Bitcoin is the purest AI trade, I kind of was scratching my head. But after listening to his logic, I'm pretty sure that he's right. And that means that everyone holding Bitcoin, AI is our friend, and AI is going to push Bitcoin much higher. Volatility is coming. That is the message from Goldman Sachs. They say that volatility tends to be 25 % higher in October.

8:31Since 1928, October SPX realized volatility averaged 18 vol versus 15 vol for other months. Sethi Associates say that they believe high October volatility is more than just a coincidence. They say that they believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year end. Regardless of why it happens or what you think is actually driving this, the month of October in stocks is highly volatile. I don't think this October is going to be any different. So prepare your portfolio and prepare for madness because volatility is coming and stocks are likely to go crazy for the next 30 days.

9:08That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. We have 26 ,601 subscribers, but I need your help to get to a million. People are saying we're not going to get there, but with your help, we will. Hit that subscribe button and I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.