SANTA RALLY Loading? Markets Are Setting Up To Send Higher

0:00Hello everyone. The Santa Claus rally is ready to roll into the end of the year. The latest job report tells a story that you're not going to expect. and the U.S. government. They just announced a brand new tech force, and it's for talented young people in the U.S. government. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:26Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. We have 41 ,049 subscribers on YouTube, but if you hit the button, we'll have 41 ,050. Hit the button and let's get into today's episode. Now, it seems like every day we're being bombarded with negative headlines. Got scary predictions of big market crash. And there's always the promise of some kind of economic destruction that's right around the corner. The mainstream media, they want you to be nervous. And the people that keep pushing this negative view of the world, they will point to all kinds of weird data points. One of their favorites is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

0:59They'll use that to say that American citizens are very worried about the future. But the Wall Street Journal's Gunjan Banerjee, she points out that Goldman Sachs' social media sentiment index, that's actually telling a very different story. These two things have diverged in a big way. So which one should you believe? Well, for me, the Goldman survey, the way I see it is that it measures what people are saying online when they think that no one's watching. It's what their true beliefs are. The other one, the University of Michigan, is just an academic survey that asks people to fill out an online form.

1:28They have all these weird measurement questions that are very specific. I'll take the social media sentiment every day of the week as the true understanding of what's happening. But it's not just on social media we see this. Mike Ziccardi shows that Google searches for the term AI bubble, those have started declining rapidly from their recent peak. My takeaway from all this is that this declined that most of the AI-related fear, it was actually just a hysteria induced by mainstream media coverage that served as a constant barrage of negative stories for the last few weeks. But here's the thing.

1:58Nothing has really changed about the AI market or the AI companies. So actually, people are not furiously asking, are we in a bubble? They're just simply worried because they've been told by the media they should be worried. They should be worried about a bubble that supposedly exists. But I actually don't think that they should be worried about the bubble. The Federal Reserve is starting to pump capital back into the market. Tom McLennan, he says, for those keeping score at home, this new QE will actually be QE5. We had QE4 after the COVID crash in 2020. Just look at how much money they've been pumping into the economy.

2:31Now, this Q is happening at a time where the U.S. government's finances are improving too. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said yesterday, the current calendar year-to-date deficit is$1.5 trillion. Sounds like a lot. But that compares to a deficit of$1.9 trillion for the period last year. It's a 21 % drop year over year. Now, it's not only that it's a smaller deficit, the economy is also bigger, he says. The full 2025 year calendar year, the budget deficit to GDP may only be 5.5%. That's lower than the 6.8 % it was in 2024. So forget all the political sharpshooting that these people do, and just focus on what's important.

3:09The US government's finances are improving. They're getting better. This is good for every American citizen. You can see another area where this is showing up in national gasoline prices. These prices are now the lowest that they've been since March of 2021. And if that doesn't get you excited, the Carson Group shows that the last two weeks of December, from now to the end of the year, they have historically been one of the best periods of the year for stocks. Some people call it the Santa Claus rally, and some people are expecting it to happen this year. Now, I know people are winding down for the holidays, but the market may be coiling for an end-of-year run.

3:42Obviously, that would be a very welcomed Christmas present for investors across markets. So right when everyone starts to let their guard down, everyone starts to put their capital away, and everyone stops taking risk, It's exactly when the market may surprise us. We just got the jobs data for November, and it ain't good, folks. The U.S. economy added 64 ,000 jobs in November, according to Heather Long. But the unemployment rate, she says, jumped to 4.6%. That's the highest since September of 2021. Now, the issue here is that only healthcare and construction have been hiring. Other sectors, Heather says, are flatlining or laying off workers.

4:17Now, a big reason for this is because people are worried about what's going to happen in the economy. Is AI going to take jobs? And should I actually be investing in research and development for my company? Because I don't know what the future holds. Now, Heather also points out that wage growth is cooling as well. So people who kept their jobs, wages only grew 3.5%. It's still above 3%, but it's not as much as it was growing back in the spring. So it's been a deceleration of that. Now, again, Heather believes that we are in a hiring recession. She says because almost no jobs have been added since April and wage gains are slowing, that is a cause for concern.

4:51If you remember, that's why the Federal Reserve is now cutting rates. It's because there's weakness in the labor market. Now, Heather believes that this is a combination of tariffs, AI, and cost cutting. She says that Americans are feeling it. The jobs market is taking it to the Federal Reserve. They have no choice. They have to bend the knee. If the jobs market is weakening, then the Fed is going to cut rates. And based on November's numbers, my guess is we're going to continue to get rate cuts going into 2026, regardless of what Jerome Powell and his crew keep telling us. A couple of years ago, the U.S.

5:23government announced the Space Force. Everyone thought it was crazy, but it ended up being a great idea. So now they're coming out with the Tech Force, and they're initially aiming for 1 ,000 early career tech experts, software engineers, data scientists, artificial intelligence, machine learning, cybersecurity, and project managers. This whole thing is a two-year full-time assignment. You go work inside of a federal agency, and you work on critical projects. The best part, they're going to pay you a lot of money,$150 ,000 to$200 ,000 annually. they're going to include benefits as well. Companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, Databricks, Snowflake, NVIDIA, OpenAI, XAI, and many others have all signed up for this.

5:59Now, Scott Kapoor, who's leading this program, says your government needs you to transform the federal government through modern software development. Now, I found some of Scott's thoughts as to this program, why they're doing it and how they're doing it pretty interesting. Take a listen to what he had to say in this interview. As you know, technology is obviously incredibly important to the future of the government, and we're trying to reshape the workforce to make sure we have the right talent on the right problem. So first thing we're trying to solve with this endeavor is to make sure we've got modern software talent, modern AI talent in the government.

6:27The second thing is, you may know this, but only about 7 % of the U.S. government workforce is early career. So people who are, let's call it like five to seven years of work experience, that compares to almost a quarter actually in the rest of the workforce. And so we're not doing a great job of kind of, as we have people retiring from government, We're not doing a great job of bringing in the next generation of leaders in government So this program is really intended to solve both those problems So one of the most important things we're doing Andrew is we've partnered with about 25 of the top You know private technology companies and they've agreed to help us kind of provide career development experience for folks We're going to do a job fair for people once they complete their two-year term here So what we're really trying to demonstrate is that the work that you can do in government is both challenging complex and that if you decide ultimately you want to go in the private sector, that's great.

7:13That work is valued by the private sector, and you'll have the opportunity to take that as the next stage of your career. Scott, you've obviously spent time with the most sophisticated companies in the world. You've invested in them in your previous life. What is your take just on how good or terrible the technology is that we as taxpayers are dependent on today? Yeah, I'm going to avoid saying good or terrible. I'm going to say it's dated. I guess maybe that's the best way to describe it. And so, look, part of what we're trying to do with this program is we've got to modernize our systems. Right.

7:48So if you're a department of state and you're trying to do great intelligence, you've got to have modern AI to do that. If you're a department of war and you're trying to make sure our fighters have the best technology, that all requires modernization. So we're trying to change the nature of the workforce. Right. We're trying to create a high performance culture where people can come to work every day, do their best job. So I think these things work in tandem, which is we've got to tell the right narrative to early career people, which is these are some of the world's most complex and challenging problems.

8:13And if you're excited about that, come do this. And oh, by the way, we have to have a work environment where we eliminate bureaucracy. We don't have a lot of red tape. We're able to promote people who actually do well. And so we're doing both of those things at the same time. And I think that's what actually will enable us to be successful in this program. My take on this whole thing, this is a no-brainer. Of course, we need smart young people who have skills going into the government and trying to improve it. Software is the future. As Marc Andreessen once said, software's eating the world. Well, of course, software's gonna eat the government too.

8:44We need to go in. We need to strip out costs. We need to automate things. We need to actually create a more efficient government. How do you do that? You use software rather than humans. And so who understands how to write software? Usually it is tech forward young people. So of course, let's go find those people, identify who's the best talent, get them in these roles. One of the things that this administration is trying to do is they are trying to make working in the government a high status job. Because if you can do that, all of a sudden you get much better talent. And so if we can actually see this program come to fruition, if we see a thousand young people with these software skills go into the government and have an impact, my guess is that the program will expand.

9:22But all of a sudden you'll have people who are coming out of some of the top universities, they're not gonna go try to get a job at a big bank or at a big tech company. They may actually take a detour and go for two years and work in the government and that'll be a launch pad for their career. If the government can accomplish that, that would be a massive win, not only because they'll actually see an impact in the government operations and efficiency, but it's because now they will have a monopoly on talent. As everybody knows, whether you're a private company or a public government, having a monopoly on talent gives you a significant advantage.

9:53That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube, and I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.