Stocks Are Ready To SEND HIGHER — Here's Data Why

0:00Hello, everyone. Stocks are getting ready to fly higher. The economic policies are going to make sure of it. And we have data that proves young and old, rich and not, they're all pouring money into the market. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:23Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. And right now, we don't even have 50 ,000. But they're all going to be wrong in terms of the haters and the critics. Hit the subscribe button, help push us closer to our goal, and let's get into today's episode. All right, ladies and gentlemen, stocks are poised to take off in a way that I don't think most people expect. We already know that we've got GDP accelerating and we have inflation falling, and that's generally both good for stocks. Now, add in the fact that the president, the treasury secretary, and the next Fed chairman all seem aligned on cutting interest rates further.

0:57And now it becomes obvious there's going to be a tailwind coming for asset prices. But there's an even more compelling data point that I think is worth paying attention to. For example, Seth Golden explains that since 1942, buying the S &P 500 on midterm election day generated a median return of more than 15 % through June 30th of the following year. So over the seven months in the four looking months, there was over a 15 % return. Never, not one time ever, was there a negative return in the four seven month period. World War II, Vietnam, 1970s lost decade, dot-com bubble, global financial crisis, all macro time periods included in that data set.

1:39Now, there are economic developments that are providing a strong narrative as well. For example, Christian Hines points out here that over 330 ,000 federal employees have been fired, resigned, or retired last year, and they were not replaced. The federal workforce is now at its lowest level since 1966, 60 years ago. You can see that productivity, profits, and job growth. It's all happening in the private sector. I use public.com's generative asset feature to create a few custom indexes that help me better understand this trend. Let's take healthcare as one example. The stocks of healthcare leaders are up nearly 60 % over the last year compared to the S &P 500.

2:16The S &P is only up around 15 % over the last year. The healthcare industry leaders includes companies like Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Novortis, Merck, and UnitedHealth Group. But energy is another area of private sector growth. AI energy enabler stocks are up 27 % in last year. And those include companies like NextEra Energy, Duke Energy, Constellation, Dominion Energy, Brookfield Infrastructure, and Portland General Electric. And the impact on asset owners is frankly profound. We now see the top 0.001 % of Americans. They now own more than 2 % of total U.S. wealth. It's an all-time high level, which is not overly surprising if you read the headlines every day from the media.

2:59The share of people between the ages of 25 to 39 make annual transfers to investment accounts that more than tripled between 2013 and 2023. Today, that rate is 14.4%. That outpaces the increase of those over the age of 40. So young people are pouring money into investment accounts. But Charlie Blolo explains that a record 32 % of household wealth is now held by Americans that are 70 years of age or older. So investors still benefit from having enough time to build real wealth. And if young people are pouring money into their accounts today and let it compound over a long time, they're going to be the wealthiest generation ever.

3:38And if you've been scared by the constant barrage of pessimism from the mainstream media, remember that stocks are still near all-time high levels. Adam Kobesi writes that at least 115 S &P 500 stocks have dropped 7 % or more in a single day over the last week or two. And yet the S &P 500 is down just 2 % from its all-time high. In the past, when at least 115 stocks saw a decline of 7 % or more in an eight-day trading period, the average index drawdown was 34%. That doesn't make a lot of sense. But if you look beyond stocks, Josh Howerton highlights the most important part about the U.S. economy, 2.4 % CPI, that's the government metric, 172 ,000 new private sector jobs in January, 4.3 % unemployment rate, 4.4 % GDP growth, stock market at or near all-time highs, and a 10 % decline in government employees.

4:27He says, is everything perfect? No, absolutely not. But is this exceptional? 100%. And David Sachs, he agrees. He recently described it best in my opinion. He says we are on the precipice of an economic boom. Take a listen to what David had to say? I got to say on all this economic data, I think we're kind of missing the lead here, which is we are at the beginning of an economic boom. Again, we saw it in the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 last year, over 4 % Q3, over 5 % Q4. We just had a January job report where the economy added 172 ,000 new private sector jobs. This blew away the expectation, which was around 70 ,000.

5:06At the same time, the government shed 42 ,000 jobs. The net of this was to bring the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. So I remember a few months ago, J. Cal, you were wringing your hands about the fact that the unemployment rate had ticked up. Well, now it's back down. And you're seeing a lot of jobs being created in construction, especially non-residential construction, has to do with the data centers, the AI boom that's going on, 33 ,000 new construction jobs in January. You've seen in President Trump's second term, you've had 615 ,000 new private sector jobs being created, while again, like we talked about, over 300 ,000 government jobs have been cut, which increases the productivity of the economy.

5:51And it does what Secretary Besson says, which is reprivatize the economy. So I just think that the overall economic news is really good. Again, we have this AI boom going on. There's a new chart showing that the CapEx for this year that's expected just from the four leading hyperscalers is$600 billion, just from four companies. That's a roughly 2 % tailwind to GDP growth right there. That is just the CapEx. That doesn't include all the ROI that you might get from that infrastructure on the software side, on the application side, the productivity side. So we have a boom going on, and I feel like everyone's kind of blackpilling about this.

6:34They're focusing on this CBO report that has unrealistically low growth rates. We're going to print 6%. All the job creation has been enjoyed by native-born Americans as well. All the job loss has been on non-native-born Americans, which is pretty remarkable. So that, I think, is also going to accrue to the benefit of more Americans. By the way, just on the unemployment thing, there was a slight tick up in October because of the October 1 buyouts. Remember, Doge created the buyout program? September or October? It was October 1st was the deadline for that. And so we had a tick up in unemployment related to that.

7:14But remember, all of those were voluntary buyouts. They all chose the Doge option. That's what created the tick up in unemployment. But again, it was all, I think, a good and voluntary tick up. And now the unemployment rate has ticked down. So again, the job creation right now is strong. So there you have it, folks. Stocks are doing pretty well. We've got inflation coming down. GDP is accelerating. Government bureaucrats are not finding jobs in the government anymore. And the private sector is driving most of the growth in the US economy. It's how it should be. The economic policy is coming out of Washington.

7:47They seem to be working. And the Fed, they're so far behind the curve, you'd think that they lost the keys to the car. These people are confused. They need to cut interest rates. And my guess is high growth, low inflation. That's the economy we're going to have moving forward. Don't take my word for it. Just look at the stats. You can like it or not. All I'm trying to do is find the truth so I can better position myself to benefit from it. And my guess is tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence, and robotics. Those deflationary forces are swallowing the US economy. The government's going to keep printing money.

8:18They're going to cut interest rates, but it ain't going to matter. The deflationary forces are way too big. And so naturally, you as an investor, you need to understand they are going to debase that U.S. dollar to address the national debt and try to actually curb any of the deflationary impact. And so holding things like Bitcoin, gold, real estate, et cetera, those are going to do very well over the coming decade. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. And I will see you all live from the desk of Anthony Pompliano tomorrow.