In short
How to compound capital amid “AI-driven” market forces; a framework of five “forces of abundance” (intelligence, earnings, dollars, risk-taking, time) plus debate over true inflation and dollar debasement.
Guests/backgrounds
Jordy Visser (mentioned as providing the AI/portfolio thesis and specific stock ideas); Anthony Pompliano (host, live from his desk); Porter Stansberry (quoted on Western financial system decline and inflation); Jim Bianco (cited on token consumption/AI usage).
Key claims
Investors should be exposed to the AI trade (not just S&P 500); bonds have produced near-zero returns; ~40% of dollars in circulation created in six years boosts valuations; retail is taking more risk (semiconductor options); inflation may be ~11% vs official figures.
Notable examples
Eli Lilly revenue up 55% YoY; EPS projected +24% (Creative Planning); token consumption rising with agentic AI; retail semiconductor option spending 4.9x higher (Citadel); gold rising from <300/oz (2000) to ~$5,000/oz.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOUnderstanding the Stock Market Dynamics
0:45 to 2:35
Exploration of the current environment affecting capital compounding and stock market trends.
“there's one big idea on how to compound your capital right now.”
The Five Forces of Abundance
2:35 to 4:12
Introduction to the five key forces driving the current market dynamics.
“Investors, frankly, they're cautiously optimistic.”
Abundance of Intelligence and Earnings
4:12 to 6:28
Detailed discussion on the impact of AI on market intelligence and earnings growth.
“Companies continue to report higher and higher numbers.”
The Influence of Eli Lilly
6:28 to 8:00
Case study on Eli Lilly's growth and its relation to AI investments.
“It may not, it's not proven yet, but you have an idea.”
Exploring Market Valuations
8:00 to 10:05
Discussion on how the abundance of dollars and risk-taking is influencing stock prices.
“stock prices are appreciating because there is an abundance of dollars in the market right now.”
Questioning Inflation Rates
10:05 to 12:18
Examination of inflation rates and how they differ from government reports.
“And the forces also convince me this bull market is only warming up.”
The Effects of Dollar Debasement
12:18 to 13:56
Discussion on the consequences of dollar debasement and its impact on society.
“If that's the case, we got to look around and try to figure out, well, what has inflation been for the last 26 years?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hello everyone. Today, we've got one big idea on how to compound your capital right now. We're going to explain the five forces of abundance that are driving the stock market, and then we're going to dissect deep into the details what's really going on with inflation in America. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.
0:25Everyone knows that there's lots of stuff going on in financial markets. It seems like every day there's the deluge of new headlines, new announcements, and brand new technical breakthroughs. But the big question is, how do you compound your capital right now? When everything seems to be going crazy, you got to keep your mind and stay focused so that you can actually take your money and make it worth more in the future. Well, Jordy Visser sat down with me and he said that there's one big idea on how to compound your capital right now. Here's what he had to say. We are in the first inning of the most disruptive supersonic tsunami we have ever seen.
0:55And so if you want to compound money, you need to be involved in the AI trade. It is not weighted in the S &P 500. As I said, it is a very small weighting, which is why you're seeing these massive divergences between the names that I'm saying. A hundred names is not a small index. There's a hundred names across industrials, across chemicals, across energy, across semiconductors. That's up 60 % this year, while the S &P is up 10. You need to make sure that your wealth manager is fine. There's no ETFs that exist on this. I think the same thing is going to happen when crypto goes through its period of exponential growth.
1:32And once that happens, if you don't have any weighting in that, you need to start thinking about your portfolio from a compounding basis and say, hey, are we set up for the exponential world or are we set up for a resumption of the cycles of the past 30 years? If the answer is that you are benchmarked and you're positioned in things that are producing zero to no returns like bonds have for six years, basically. I think you need to start changing your portfolio if you want to compound and keep up with inflation. So there you have it. Jordy says that we are in the single most disruptive time. He says that it is a supersonic tsunami that is headed towards your capital.
2:07And the ability to compound your money is becoming more challenging because of that exponential innovation. So if you've got any amount of money that's sitting on the sidelines and you need a place to put it, obviously keep your rainy day fund. But more importantly, is you got to have exposure, whether directly to the AI trade or any of the inputs like commodities, power generation or many other verticals. And so AI is driving the market. Either you participate or you sit on the sidelines and you whine that everything's overvalued. All right, ladies and gentlemen, the stock market continues to hit new all time highs.
2:38Everyone is paying attention. Investors, frankly, they're cautiously optimistic. They don't want to be the dummy who plows their capital into the top of a bubble. But at the same time, you, me, and everybody else, we can't resist the urge to participate. Remember, there's been recent rapid gains enjoyed by anyone with a brokerage account. And so are you going to sit on the sidelines? It's tough. But thankfully, anyone allocating capital right now, you've got the perfect storm of abundance as a very big tailwind. Now, that's the name that I'm going to use to describe the framework I have for what's happening in the market.
3:08There are five key forces to the perfect storm of abundance, intelligence, earnings, dollars, risk-taking, and time. We're going to break down each one of those. So first up, the abundance of intelligence. That's been ushered in by the AI model labs. They expose their disruptive technology that they invented all to the world via chat interfaces. Now, why is that important? Well, everyone knows how to ask questions in a chat interface, and everyone wants access to the smartest technology available. Everyone wants access to intelligence. And you can see the breakthrough adoption of AI by simply looking at the chart of token consumption.
3:41My friend Jim Bianco says token usage, the blue bars right here, is exploding higher. Started in January when agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Maltbook or OpenClaw. AI users are creating agents in code and that's leading to exponential growth in AI usage. It is just starting. I don't disagree with Jim here. Now, a big part of this demand, as he points out, is an increase from AI agents rather than from humans. It seems like there's unlimited demand for AI, hence the name abundance of intelligence that I am using. Now, the frantic adoption of AI leads us to the abundance of earnings.
4:14Companies continue to report higher and higher numbers. Just look at the headlines. That is true for the actual numbers in the last few earnings seasons, but also the increases hold for the 2026 estimated earnings through the end of the year. Creative Planning's Charlie Belolo shows us a projected 24 % increase in EPS from last year to the end of this year. 24%. That is a bonkers growth rate for companies that are already worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars. Now, my friend Jordy Visser told me over the weekend to pay attention to Eli Lilly. Eli Lilly, that's not the company I think of when I think of AI, but he says that Eli Lilly has reported a 55 % year-over-year growth to their revenue.
4:53Take a listen to why Jordy is so excited about Eli Lilly. I wrote a paper on Eli Lilly in October, and it was how they are in AI trade. They're part of my 100-name thematic portfolio. They're the only healthcare name that is in there. They just released earnings. Their revenues are up 55 % year-over-year. And I want 55 % and they're a trillion dollar company, 55%. I want people to hear that number 55%. Now these are the types of numbers that you're talking about with Nvidia. These are the types of numbers. So this is related to, um, GLP once, which again, they've had a huge impact on the world.
5:27I remember when friends of mine that were doctors, uh, including a family member said, this is a life changer. I've seen people's lives change. Now this was years ago. This is when it first came out and their description was, no, no, I've had people that mentally have like become a different person. Like their addictions are gone. All of the things that people have now heard about, I had heard about it at the very early stages. People are still fading the impact that it has on chip companies and fast food companies. Like it is, it has had a real thing. The reason I bring that up for this, I'm getting more excited about longevity and this connection because Eli Lillias had so many announcements over the last six months related to AI.
6:08They are buying up companies left and right. I'll be talking about this in the video. So I'm getting more excited again. Eli Lilly, if this was a tech company back after the iPhone came out, all of these tech companies were buying Instagram. They were buying all of, all of these became major things. What I see on the biotech side are ideas to IPO a company, a biotech company. You have an idea. It may not, it's not proven yet, but you have an idea. And in a lot of cases, what ended up happening was this great idea, the scientifically based idea. Maybe it made it to the 20 yard line, but it couldn't get inside the red zone and it just couldn't get over the finish line.
6:45Well, that's IP that has failed. Okay. AI bolted onto that. This is much better than the enterprise software arguments I hear because pharma is such a hard thing for a generalist to get involved in. and biotech is more of the beta side. I'm getting more interested in Eli Lilly. I think people should be spending a lot more time on, hey, I wanna make money on longevity. I wanna make money on all of the problems we're gonna have with entitlements, which we're gonna run into a major problem. The government is trying to get prices down. Eli Lilly is focused on getting price down and you have to remember Jevin's paradox.
7:21Right now, I think their stock would be up significantly more if they could actually sell this to more people, even though the price would come down. So they're working on reducing the cost of all this stuff. They're using the capital they're doing to buy, to make AI labs, to do these partnerships, to acquire companies. It's a very, very interesting story that is kind of the, in my opinion, the human software side of what the next decade is gonna look like for curing disease. So there you have it. 55 % annual growth for a trillion dollar company. Just incredible. Now, it's this type of revenue and earnings growth that continues to drive the stock market higher.
7:58In addition to the improved financial performance, stock prices are appreciating because there is an abundance of dollars in the market right now. Abundance of dollars. You gotta remember, approximately 40 % of all dollars in circulation have been created in the last six years. 40 % of dollars in the last six years, that's a big number. So if you got more dollars chasing the same number of good companies, you naturally get higher valuations and stock prices. Abundance of dollars helps the investor class. That's why they're all getting richer. But abundance of dollars punishes the savers with elevated levels of inflation.
8:32That's why you see sentiment so low. But higher inflation is not the only side effect of undisciplined fiscal monetary policy in America. The second order effect is that many people feel like they can't get ahead. You see that all over headlines as well. And so these people begin gambling more than normal with their money. That is abundance of risk-taking. And we can see this clearly in the popularity of zero-day options or levered ETFs. For example, retail investors are now spending a record 4.9 times more money on semiconductor option contracts than the average seen since 2020, according to Citadel.
9:04Now that is also exceeding the 2024 record by about 25%. Remember, back in 2024, the AI chip frenzy first drove a surge in these retail semiconductor options activity. So we are seeing a significant increase in the combination of earnings driving stock performance and debasement of the dollar it has created an insane environment for going max risk on. Just don't hold your breath that the situation will be over anytime soon either. Opening Bell's Phil Rosen writes that this bull market has lasted 1 ,326 days. Sounds like a lot, right? Well, that is 600 days shorter than the average historical bull market since 1949.
9:41The bears waiting on the sidelines, he says, they are simply fighting history. So we can call that the abundance of time. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. And so investors are reminded that being early can sometimes be the same thing as being wrong. It is these five forces, abundance of intelligence, abundance of earnings, abundance of dollars, abundance of risk-taking, and abundance of time that convince me the stock market is justified in going higher. And the forces also convince me this bull market is only warming up. We haven't seen the top of the market yet.
10:14Time will tell if I'm right or not, but my guess is things are gonna continue going the same way they are for quite a while. Now, at the same time that the stock market continues to go higher, people keep asking, is it simply dollars being debased? What is the real inflation rate in America? Obviously, different people experience inflation differently, but we have to ask ourselves, is inflation actually what the government says it is? Porter Stansberry, somebody who has been all over the story for years now, says the Western financial system is failing the average American. And a huge reason for that is that the peak of our financial wealth and social order was back in the year 2000.
10:51He says that since then, we're just merely managing an orderly decline, and the dollar debasement is a big part of it. Take a listen to what Porter has to say here. The peak of the stock market in early 2000 was really the peak of the post-war American social and economic order. The price of gold at that point was under$300 an ounce, and the Financial Times was calling it a barbaric relic and saying that it would play no further role in the economy. If you measure the value of, say, the Dow Jones Industrial or the S &P 500 in terms of ounces of gold, that was the peak of our financial wealth. And since then, it has been in decline.
11:36And, of course, now gold was recently trading around$5 ,000 an ounce. and so people have become to believe that their wealth is measured in a currency, the dollar or the yen or the euro, but if you really measure your wealth in money, if you measure your wealth in gold, we've all gotten much poorer and that is because the western financial system is failing. The currencies do not keep pace with growth to productivity and as a result, people's after-tax real wages have continued to fall. Now, if you believe that the peak of financial wealth was in the year 2000, that would mean that inflation is much higher than what the government's been telling us.
12:18If that's the case, we got to look around and try to figure out, well, what has inflation been for the last 26 years? Porter points out that there's an economist who says inflation is near 11 % per year. 11 % is a huge number. So take a listen to why Porter thinks that number could be more accurate than what the government's been telling us. So what do you think inflation really is? And your experience and your lived experience, How much on average has inflation gone up the last five years? Yeah, I think take out the last 12 months with all of the AI robotics and deflation, we talk about all that.
12:49But I would say that inflation is probably somewhere in the like 5 % to 7 % range on an annual basis. So there's an economist who actually twice a year goes out and measures 150 items. And there are standard items like airfare on Delta from New York to LA, a pound of ground beef, a dozen eggs. goes out and measures the actual prices twice a year of 150 items. And inflation for the last decade, on average, in American cities has been 11%. Wow. So there you have it, folks. We see that the stock market has continued to go up and to the right for quite a while, but it may be because the dollar is being debased.
13:31Inflation is going higher. There has been an absolute explosion of gambling and porn in society. We continue to see lots of people falling behind. and generally sentiment is in the toilet while stocks are hitting all-time highs. The problems continue to persist. And my guess is, whether it's Porter, whether it's Jordy, or whether it's many other people, you simply can take all of those problems and you can draw a straight line back to the Federal Reserve debasing the dollar. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. Our goal is to get to 1 million subscribers.
14:01We are just teeing up about 50 ,000 subscribers. And with your help, we will get to our goal eventually. So hit the subscribe button and I'll see all of you live from the desk of Anthony Pompliano tomorrow.
From the publisher
If you're sitting on some money right now, what's the best way to compound and grow it? I spoke with Jordi Visser about it and he revealed his best idea for investors, no matter your portfolio size. We talk about it on today's show!0:00 Intro0:25 Jordi Visser tells us how to compound capital right now2:34 The perfect storm of abundance (all five forces broken down) 9:26 Historically, bull markets last longer than this10:22 Is inflation worse than governments are telling us?Listen to From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-desk-of-anthony-pompliano/id1819778503Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1THAGnR1Xt1WDUn1CCTh1DPomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at: http://pompletter.comJoin 600K+ subscribers on my main channel: https://pompyoutube.com/ Follow Pomp on social media:Twitter: https://twitter.com/APompliano Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pompglobal/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthonypompliano/#AnthonyPompliano #FromtheDesk #marketnews
