The Fed Is Behind! CUT RATES NOW Before The Economy Worsens

0:00Anthony Pompliano:Hello, everyone. The jobs report this morning shows that the Fed is behind the curve. We know the Don Rowe Doctrine is changing financial markets quickly. Geopolitics has rattled markets and Anthropik just dropped a brand new chart. It's going to make you question whether AI can take your job. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:27Anthony Pompliano:Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. We currently have 44 ,763 subscribers on YouTube. My goal is to get to 1 million. Hit the subscribe button and let's get into today's show. Watch out below. The jobs report came in this morning and it was not good. It was bad. It was dismal, according to Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal. She says that a dismal February jobs report. The U.S. economy lost 92 ,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.4%. Even healthcare shed 28 ,000 jobs in February. December was also revised down to negative 17 ,000 and January was revised to 126 ,000 jobs.

1:07Anthony Pompliano:The unemployment rate at 4.4%, that is the highest since December. It's one of the higher rates in the past few years. Wage growth though is at 3.8%, which is well above the 2.4 % inflation. Ben Heather went on to say, let me put this another way. The US economy has lost jobs since April of 2025. Total job gains since May of 2025 to February of 2026 are now negative 19 ,000. She says that companies are not hiring in the face of all these headwinds and uncertainty, and even healthcare is starting to slow down. Now, I agree with Heather. The jobs report, it was no good. It was bad. But what I don't think people are really giving enough credit to, companies are producing more profits with less employees.

1:50I think that this story is much more about artificial intelligence and the need for less employees inside of these companies than most people are recognizing. And so the whole thing comes to, how do you measure whether an economy is strong or not? You used to look at job growth, but what if companies can actually be more productive and just do it with less humans? Could the economy still be strong? Could we actually still say that GDP is growing and productivity is going up? That's my bet. My bet is actually that jobs are going to become a very bad signal for whether the economy is strong or not, but it's still gonna be an amazing signal for how are people, everyday Americans, actually doing on a day-to-day basis.

2:28People need jobs. They need to be able to make an income. They need to be able to actually fund their lifestyle. And so if they don't get a normal job, what are they gonna do? Do they have to go and become investors? Are they gonna go gamble in sports and prediction markets? Or are they gonna try to use AI to somehow go and make a living? I don't have all the answers, but what I know is that this jobs report, it is going to open a lot of people's eyes and they're gonna start asking the question, how do we measure whether we have a strong economy or not in an age where companies are doing better

2:58Anthony Pompliano:but doing it with less employees? And maybe the most interesting part of this entire thing is the Fed is behind the curve. They've been so far behind the curve, they are lost in the sauce. Jerome Powell doesn't know which way is up. This man continues to hold interest rates. Yeah, sure, he dropped it six times since 2024. Yeah, he cut three times going into the end of 2025. But the last meeting, he said, no mas, I'm not going to cut. And that's the problem is that interest rates should probably be a hundred basis points lower than they are right now. And so the Federal Reserve sees that we have a weakening labor market, a very weakening labor market, and they refuse to cut.

3:35Guess what? The Federal Reserve is responsible for pain in the economy. Instead, what we need is we need to get rates down and we need to have the government continue to print money. I know that that may be blasphemy to the Bitcoin crowd, but ultimately we are facing very large deflationary forces. We know that tariffs are deflationary. We know that deportations are deflationary, and we now see that AI and robotics are deflationary as well. Interest rates must come down. The Federal Reserve is behind the curve. And ultimately, you can look at these numbers and say, do we have a strong economy or do we not?

4:09That is the question that people are going to start asking, because right now what we see is that jobs are not being created, but companies are making more money.

4:19Anthony Pompliano:All right, ladies and gentlemen, the Donroe Doctrine seems to be the only thing that people want to talk about this year. Now, this phrase refers to the bold reinterpretation of the 19th century Monroe Doctrine, and it is a reinterpretation by President Trump and his administration. Their strategy is very simple. They want to redefine all of the things that are happening in geopolitics and the global economy, but they want to do it with one very big idea. The big idea behind this policy is that the U.S. is asserting American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere. That includes a specific aim to counter influences from China, Russia, or Iran.

4:53And this is being done through a mix of military interventions, economic coercion, tariffs, and strategic asset acquisitions.

5:00Anthony Pompliano:It is a full-blown let's-go type of game. You saw this materialize with the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January. There have also been threats to reclaim the Panama Canal, bids for Greenland sovereignty, and efforts to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. From a strategy execution standpoint, the doctrine prioritizes securing US access to resources, things like oil, minerals, trade routes, and they're doing that while disrupting adversarial supply chains at the same time. Now, this is an aggressive America first stance and it has injected significant volatility into financial markets.

5:35Anthony Pompliano:It is reshaping asset prices across energy, equities, emerging markets, and bonds. And initially, the market reaction was rather subdued But the doctrine's implementation now, it has started to trigger measurable shifts in financial markets. Investors are doing their best to navigate a situation where geopolitics can be more important than economic fundamentals in the short term. A great example is the current complexity in the energy market. The Don Roe Doctrine's focus is on rerouting energy flows in the Western Hemisphere. It has profoundly impacted oil markets. By targeting Venezuela and the fact that we know Venezuela was previously exporting 50 million barrels of oil to China annually.

6:13Anthony Pompliano:The U.S. is trying to bolster domestic supply and reduce reliance on the Middle Eastern imports for all of our oil. If you look at crude prices, those have also been responding. We saw$75 a barrel in late 25, but prices have now fallen to approximately$68 earlier this month. That likely reflects the expectation of increased Venezuelan supply under our influence, and the decline underscores the doctrine's potential to stabilize U.S. energy costs. Now, the U.S. equity market's another interesting data point. We've seen widespread resilience. Remember, the S &P is up about 4 % year to date. And that is driven by optimism over domestic energy security and reduced import dependencies.

6:51Yet the VIX has averaged 18 during this period, and it's up from 14 last year. So in my opinion, this signals a feeling of uncertainty among investors from potential trade disruptions. The sectors that are most sensitive to global trade, semiconductors is a good example, they've unsurprisingly faced material headwinds. For example, the iShare Semiconductor ETF has declined 3 % based on fears of Chinese retaliation affecting supply chains.

7:17Anthony Pompliano:And one area that may not get a lot of love, but has the full attention of investors right now is emerging market debt. Venezuelan bonds have surged dramatically post Maduro's capture. Investors are essentially betting on US-facilitated restructuring. It's looking more likely after the US and Venezuela just announced in the last 48 hours that they're gonna reopen diplomatic ties. But more broadly, analysts are forecasting double-digit returns for emerging market debt in 2026. Critics, well, they're going to highlight significant drawbacks. They're going to claim that tariffs on Mexico and Brazil have raised U.S.

7:47Anthony Pompliano:household costs by 2 % to 3%. They're going to say that it's eroded exporter competitiveness through retaliation. And it's created uncertainty that hampers investment and hiring. The critics will also say that geopolitical backlash risks escalating tensions. There could be strained relationships with NATO over Greenland. There also could be some sort of triggering market corrections in AI and trade-sensitive assets. An analyst warned of midterm electoral backlash if economic pains at home outweigh the gains, and that could potentially constrain the doctrine scope. But my general takeaway is that the Donroe Doctrine unfolds.

8:21It represents a paradigm shift towards assertive U.S. hemispheric dominance. This blends military might with economic tools.

8:29Anthony Pompliano:Financial markets have adapted with gains in energy and select emerging market assets, but volatility and risks persist. Investors should balance resource-driven opportunities against global fragmentation. They should favor emerging market debt and diversified equities. While the doctrine promises America first prosperity, its long-term success hinges on managing backlash and delivering tangible economic benefits. In an evolving landscape, you got one job. Keep your head on a swivel. Things are changing fast and it's gonna impact your portfolio. Everyone knows that markets got a little rattled when it came to all of the bombing in Iran.

9:04Anthony Pompliano:Binance Research did a great job breaking it down. It said that the weekend brought a sudden escalation of Middle Eastern tensions, and that rippled across global markets during thin weekend liquidity, and it went into the Monday Open. Bitcoin, which was trading around the clock, served as the earliest barometer, dropped sharply when all of the news started to break on the internet. Crude oil gapped down to$75 per barrel at the Monday Open. That was the highest level since June of 2025. But then it settled back in that 68 to 72 range, as we saw throughout the week. The S &P 500 ended Monday with a barely perceptible 0.04 % gain.

9:39Anthony Pompliano:It was basically flat. And that effectively dismissed all of the weekend's developments. And the market just didn't seem to care. Now, this reaction pattern, this idea of a violent initial move and then a rapid mean reversion, it tells an important story. Markets are not ignoring the geopolitical risk. The spike in implied volatility in the brief flight to safe haven assets confirms that. But the speed of the retracement suggests that the current consensus treats this escalation as a contained episodic event rather than the beginning of a structural shift in the global risk landscape. And so again, you gotta keep your head on a swivel.

10:13Anthony Pompliano:But ultimately, the market is pricing in the fact that they believe that this is going to be a very short conflict. They are not worried about long-term damage to the market. And asset prices are the global alarm bell and the alarm's not going off. Instead, investors are saying, we see what's happening. we're just not ready to change our portfolios yet. Before I let you guys go, I wanna talk about this chart real quick. When I saw this thing, this thing blew my mind. So what you see here is in blue, you can see that this shows where AI's capabilities currently are. Normally, people are always worried about the blue collar jobs getting automated, but instead AI is showing us that the white collar jobs are the ones that are at the biggest risk.

10:52Anthony Pompliano:And it doesn't mean that all of the white collar jobs are going to go and get automated away or that people are gonna lose their job, but it does mean that this technology is best used in those white collar jobs. And so I think that there's going to be a bifurcation that goes here. You're still going to have accountants. You're still going to have financial advisors. You're still going to have lawyers or any other white collar job. But the bifurcation is going to be those who learn how to use this technology and those that don't. If you don't know how to use the technology, what is the point of you working inside of an organization?

11:19Every single company is going to become AI first or AI native. They're going to be forced to use this technology. Think of the internet. How many companies operate without the internet? But if you go back 25 or 30 years, people would literally call their business an internet company. Today, it's just called a company. Now you hear people talking about, we're an AI company. Eventually, it's just gonna be a company. And employees have to very quickly figure out, how do I use these tools? How do I make it better at my job? And how do I become more productive? Because ultimately, companies are saying, whether it's in their public statements, in their earnings reports, or it's showing up on their balance sheets and P &Ls, They're able to do more with less and the employees that jobs are safe are the employees who know how to use AI.

12:01And so if you work at one of these jobs, you better get up to speed real quick. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube and I will see you all live on Monday from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.