The Great Rotation Away From Gold And Into Bitcoin Has Begun

0:00Hello, everyone. The great rotation from gold to Bitcoin may be upon us. Jordy Vitzer's gonna break down the AI bubble, retail investors can't stop buying the dip, and Elon Musk proves once again why he's the hardest worker in the room. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:26Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. The people are saying it's not possible, but with your help, we're going to get there. We have 31 ,683 subscribers today. Hit the button and let's get into today's show. All right, ladies and gentlemen, all eyes are on gold and Bitcoin because capital allocators are trying to figure out what the heck is happening all around the world. Now, the narrative coming into this year, 2025, was that gold is a great asset. That's true, but it does a better job of preventing losses in your portfolio than it does driving outperformance.

1:01Gold didn't go up a lot. It was just really stable. And that's where Bitcoin came in. The decentralized asset was pitched as a digital gold, or what I've previously called gold with wings. The idea has been that Bitcoin boasts the same sound money principles as the precious metal. But Bitcoin's unique properties, those include the finite supply, the Bitcoin halving feature, and the relatively young life since inception. Those unique properties, they should ensure that Bitcoin would continue outperforming gold. But here's the thing, that hasn't happened in 2025 though. In fact, gold has appreciated about 60 % year to date.

1:35That is the best performance in nearly a half century. Gold bugs are celebrating. Creative Planning's Charlie Blello highlights, gold is now the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years. It has an annual return of over 11 % during that time period. So this performance, particularly the performance this year, it has driven central banks allocation of gold significantly higher. Makes sense. Prices going up, so the allocation goes up. Charlie writes that gold now accounts for over 20 % of global central bank reserves as the highest share that we have seen in nearly three decades. Now, the central bank demand is important because it overcame the fact that U.S.

2:15retail investors, they've been doing the opposite. They have essentially been net sellers of gold and silver since the big rally in price started in March of 2024. But here is the part of the story that is confusing many investors. Bitcoin and gold have historically traded in tight correlation. When gold goes up, Bitcoin has followed approximately 100 days later. These two assets benefit from the same exact tailwinds of higher national debts, undisciplined monetary policy, and all of the geopolitical uncertainty. Now, in response to these issues, investors prefer to allocate larger percentages of their portfolio to sound money assets.

2:50That makes sense. They've been doing it for a long time that way. Assets that are outside the legacy system and assets that no one can create more of. So why is gold responding to the recent global developments, but Bitcoin is lagged? That's confusing a lot of people. Is it as simple as central banks have a lot of money, and so they're the ones that are driving gold to outperform because those large pools of capital are not allocating to Bitcoin yet? Well, sure, that's part of it. I think that people see that happening in the data. But there's something more nuanced at play here. What I see is that most people are too focused on gold's outperformance, and they're forgetting to check Bitcoin's relative underperformance.

3:25Joe Karlsar shows that the current Bitcoin bull market has significantly underperformed past Bitcoin bull markets. We haven't seen the breathtaking price appreciation that we've come to expect. That means that the market has been void of the blow-off tops that are driven by the retail frenzy. That's not fun. They've been buying Bitcoin for speculative purposes, especially if the most attractive quality was its perceived asymmetry. You've been pretty disappointed right now. And I wouldn't blame you. I get it. Bitcoin has not delivered on the promise so far in this cycle of the speculators. But if you're buying Bitcoin as a defensive asset, buying it to protect your purchasing power from currency debasement, and buying it to protect yourself from out-of-control inflation, then you likely have been good with the results.

4:09See, here's the thing. Bitcoin's up 1 ,500 % since January 2020. The asset has appreciated more than 18 % in 2025. five. The asymmetry of Bitcoin came from the high degree of risk that investors were taking when they first bought the asset years ago. You get paid for the risk that you take, but Bitcoin's not risky anymore. It's very obvious to me and everybody else. Bitcoin's not going away. The government is not going to outlaw it and Bitcoin will eventually seep into every sophisticated investor's portfolio. So you should expect Bitcoin's return to come down from past bull markets. This doesn't make Bitcoin unattractive at all.

4:45Instead, it means that Bitcoin's rise is essentially preordained at this point. It's going to take time, but Bitcoin is going to win on the global stage. It's going to win as one of the top stores of value assets. Gold's going to do well alongside Bitcoin as well. These two assets are not in competition with each other, but rather they serve as brothers in the fight against currency debasement. And that's a good thing because coexistence actually means that both assets are going to win together. But in the short term, we may have hit a turning point this weekend, and this is really important to pay attention to.

5:19We are most likely about to see a large rotation from the gold trade into Bitcoin through the end of the year. Yao Wedsen writes that bottom signals in the Bitcoin to gold ratio are extremely rare. They tend to appear during high volatility moments and sharp Bitcoin drawdowns like we just saw. Well, we're exactly there right now this past weekend. The blue signal in this chart marks the current bottom, which is revealed by a normalized oscillator that's basically screaming, time to sell gold and buy Bitcoin. The green signal on this chart is even stronger. It shows up when both metrics align at their lows, and historically, those moments have been the best Bitcoin to gold opportunities ever recorded in the history of Bitcoin.

6:01So Yao's message is very simple. He says to the institutional gold accumulators, if he were you, he'd take a close look at the chart. The risk-reward profile of Bitcoin looks far more attractive right now, especially considering the current gold euphoria. So you can use this chart however you want, but mark this moment. It could be remembered as the turning point between gold and Bitcoin. So there you have it. Gold, the precious metal, has done very well in 2025. No one is disputing that. But remember, past performance is not indicative of future performance. We may be on the doorsteps of the great rotation from gold to Bitcoin.

6:37And if that theory comes true, well, then Bitcoin is likely to have a fireworks ending to the year. So don't look in the rearview mirror. Look through the windshield. It was gold's time. But now a lot of the data is pointing to it's probably going to be Bitcoin's time for the next couple of weeks. I sat down with Jordy Visser this past weekend, and he explained why he thinks that fiat is a Ponzi scheme. Here's what he had to say. The fiat system is a Ponzi scheme. It is. Of course. But the government was$7 trillion of debt in 2007 when Michael Burry challenged the system, when George Soros challenged the system or Druckenmiller challenged the system.

7:16They were big relative to the system. Now the government is$37 trillion. It's 120 % of GDP. They can't allow it to go under, and they have tools that were created. We still have QT. We weren't supposed to have QE for more than a year after we did it. Bernanke told us it wouldn't be here. So for everyone kind of going through this, unfortunately for all of you, it is not only a Ponzi scheme, but the end game is not a crashing. The end game is it being replaced by the new system. The new system is stable coins. The new system is Bitcoin. The new system is tokenization. All of this is coming. And next year is going to be a boom year for all of those things.

7:57I don't disagree with Jordi at all. It's that understanding of the legacy system as to why people are pouring capital into stocks, Bitcoin, and gold. But everyone's talking about asset prices and the perceived AI bubble right now. So I asked Jordy about that as well. And here's what he had to say. AI bubble. People are, I mean, they're all over this AI bubble. And just so people hear this, there are always bubbles in the market. Just like Jim Cramer likes to go on TV, there's a bull market somewhere. If a market is going up, there's a bubble somewhere. So define a bubble as zero revenue companies are trading at high valuation.

8:30So whether it's Aklo, whether it's Fermi, whether it's a lot of these energy names, which you don't have revenues right now, you can categorize those as bubbles. They're not, they're not the entire market. What dominates, what happens in the market is nominal GDP inflation. So you get back to real and you get to a scenario where earnings follow nominal GDP. So everything is, everything is fine. But to get back to your point about Bitcoin, whenever this kind of situation happens that everyone's panicking and it's something that should be expected, China and the US have to come to a deal. I'm going to say this again and again.

9:04Rare earth is the most critical factor in the world. It has been all year. We've watched tariffs be a fear. We've watched stagflation be a fear. We've watched inflation be a fear. I can't even remember everything that we've had to talk about here as fears. But now we have bubbles and we have credit risk and the world's going to end. for Bitcoin to actually have a sustainable move higher. I learned a very valuable lesson this year. The boogeyman of the four-year cycle, which you can tell me about, because I'm not smart enough to understand this whole, this is going to be a crash that happens. And I go back and look and I see, well, in 2017, right around this time period, it was the peak.

9:422021, oh, I get it. But so that's two data points. I don't really live off two data points. And maybe there's one in 13. I didn't go back to look. It was still too new. But if you can tell me in front of everyone watching right now why I should be worried about the four-year cycle, and then I'll give you a reason why I'm buying it aggressively every day right now. So you're buying Bitcoin aggressively? I'm buying Bitcoin all the way down to 100. I have bids under 100. I always like sitting down with Jordy because Jordy, frankly, is rational. And he simply looks at the data. And he understands where the world is going.

10:12He's not worried about the AI bubble. He's not worried about asset prices. And he sure as heck is not worried about all of a sudden the government doing a U-turn and stop printing money or stop throwing the national debt higher. So if Jordy's not worried, I'm not worried. And everything looks like it's going to be a fun end of the year. Retail investors cannot stop buying the dip. Adam Kubisi wrote, Buy the dip activity is incredibly strong right now. Investors have bought nearly$4 billion in U.S. equities last week. that follows three straight weeks of selling, according to Bank of America. Now, the net inflows to single stocks hit$4.1 billion as the fifth highest since 2008, the big global financial crisis.

10:54And it was the largest on record for a week when the S &P 500 fell at least 1%. He says that this was driven by institutional inflows of$4.4 billion, the most since November of 22, and retail investors bought$1.1 billion, showing that investors are eager to buy dips. It makes sense, though. Retail investors have been trained. When stock prices go down, you buy because the government will not allow us to go into a prolonged bear market. Stocks can have volatility to them. But ultimately, over time, they're going to debase the currency and stocks are going to go up forever. Everyone knows that Elon Musk, he's the absolute greatest of all time.

11:34Well, at least during our generation, that is. See, the thing is that Elon Musk is averaging a multi-billion dollar company. every five years for over 30 years. This is like a generational run for an entrepreneur. But one of the key ingredients as to why Elon's been so successful is he just works incredibly hard. And not to believe me, David Sachs recently was on stage and he talked about a visit to Elon Musk late at night. Here's what Sachs had to say. I recently had the opportunity to go down and have dinner with Elon Musk and go down to XAI. And one thing that I noticed is that on Tuesday, he's down at Tesla.

12:09at Wednesday he's down at XAI, then he goes to SpaceX on Thursday, on Friday he's at Nerling. Like every day he's concentrated on one company and whatever problem that they're trying to solve then and very singularly focused right there and very present. Is that how he was and is that a fair characterization of kind of how he's working in this kind of unusual cadence? Yeah, and I think, I mean, although I'd say back in those days he was just focused on one company, So now he's got like five major companies, but he just still works incredibly hard. I visited him recently as well, and I think, you know, I think I left around midnight and he was still going.

12:51I think he must have gone until 2 a.m. or something like that. So I don't know anybody who works as hard as him. Yeah, and I don't think there's anybody who not only works as hard as he does, but works how he does. Yeah. It just is such an unusual cadence. Tremendous focus. And he's really in the technical details of it. When he bought Twitter and did that transition, I got to see him work in a different way because it had been like 20 years. And I think what I saw him do was really get to the bottom of the technology. I think he spent about a month really drilling into every system in the company.

13:30And I could see him kind of putting together his mental model of how the whole thing worked. and eventually had the whole thing in his head. And then he felt like he could manage it in the way that he wanted. So to see David Sachs talking about Elon Musk's work ethic while sitting on stage with Mark Benioff at Dreamforce, all these people work hard. That's how they built successful companies. But to have people who work hard point to Elon and say, I don't know anyone that works harder than that, that's something special. And so of course, working hard is not the only thing that is needed for these companies to be super successful, but you can't be super successful with these businesses without working hard.

14:05And so there's plenty of people who critique Elon. There's plenty of people who don't like his companies but I for one, I'm thankful that Elon is willing to risk his time, energy and money to build these companies, solve these problems in our economy and frankly, to be a great example for young people on what is possible if you simply pick a big problem and you work really hard at it. Elon's a hard worker and you'll never be able to take that away from him. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember we have 31 ,683 subscribers on YouTube. I need your help.

14:36Yes, you right now who are watching. Please hit the subscribe button. Help us get to our goal of 1 million subscribers. I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.