In short
Bullish on AI stocks tied to underappreciated compute infrastructure and upcoming IPOs; argues there’s “too much demand, not enough supply,” so no AI bubble.
Guests
None named as on-air guests; the episode references interviews with Gavin Baker, Shalini Bassik, and Brad Gerstner.
Guest backgrounds
Gavin Baker (discusses AI hardware/TPUs vs Amazon Trainium at the Sohn conference); Shalini Bassik (CNBC interview about AI-era IPOs); Brad Gerstner (TBPN interview on compute demand/supply).
Key claims
Amazon Trainium is most underestimated; Jensen Huang said “Marvel Technology” is the next trillion-dollar company (implying ~5X); Anthropic filed a confidential SEC S-1; IPO supply won’t overwhelm demand; fundamentals/growth outpace stock price.
Notable examples
Trainium vs TPUs; “switched scale-up networks” only on NVIDIA GPUs and Amazon Trainium; portfolio allocation suggestion to “Marvel Technologies” (~30%); Anthropic $47B annualized revenue, ~$10B/month growth.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOExploring Amazon's Tranium
0:26 to 3:13
Discussion about Amazon's Tranium and its potential in the market.
“Ladies and gentlemen, we are all searching for alpha.”
Marvel Technology Insights
3:13 to 4:21
Insights on Marvel Technologies and its predicted growth in AI.
“Now, what I did is I took that transcript and I put it into the AI model and I asked what stocks are going to appreciate and what did the AI model tell me when I asked?”
Anthropic's Potential IPO
4:21 to 5:10
Discussion on Anthropic's plans to go public and its market significance.
“All of these companies, they're coming public and they're gonna do it at a trillion plus dollar valuation.”
Examining AI Supply and Demand
5:10 to 7:00
Analysis of the supply and demand dynamics in the AI sector.
“Now, of course, the second that everyone hears Anthropics coming public, SpaceX is coming public, that means XAI is going to be public exposure as well.”
Understanding AI Stock Valuations
7:00 to 8:52
Discussion on the valuation of AI stocks and investor perspectives.
“And if there's not enough supply, that means price has got to appreciate to accommodate everyone.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hello, everyone. Today, we've got some alpha for you. We've got one stock pick that one of the richest men in the world just said he thinks is going to be a trillion dollar company. And on top of that, Anthropik is going public. And we're going to talk about what that means for you, your portfolio and the AI trade. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.
0:26Ladies and gentlemen, we are all searching for alpha. Investors are scouring the internet and the world trying to figure out what can I buy that's going to appreciate. Well, now an easy way to do this is to simply listen to the top AI minds. These people, they give public interviews like every single day. They're constantly saying out loud, where's the world going? Who are the future winners? What resources are too scarce for them to find? And why do they think certain narratives are either becoming hot or not? Now, my friend, Jordy Visser, he turned me on to the idea of taking the transcripts from these interviews and putting them into AI and then simply asking what stocks will appreciate based on what this person is saying.
1:01I recently did this and I know it works because when I did this, I had heard Gavin Baker talking at the Sohn conference and he had mentioned Amazon's Tranium being a very big narrative for the second half of the year. Take a listen to what Gavin said that caught my attention. Alternatives are coming. Competition is coming. He's still going to be the dominant part of the market, but competition is coming. As you think about Tranium, TPUs, MTIA, which of these is most underestimated by the market? Where does the consensus get it wrong? Tranium by far. Tranium is going to be to 2026, especially in the second half of this year when Tranium 3 really rams, as TPUs were to 2025.
1:42And if somebody is wildly bullish on TPUs today, let's go look at their 13F and let's see if they owned Lumentum or Celestica, which were the best ways to invest in TPUs. I owned one of those. And so I do feel like I've, you know, I have some credibility to say this, but I do think Google, for a lot of reasons, made very conservative design choices with the TPU V8. NVIDIA and Tranium made very aggressive design choices. And so Tranium is for sure the most underestimated, not only because of those design choices, but because all of these frontier models are what are called mixture of expert models.
2:23And to inference one of these, not to get too technical, you need something called a switched scale-up network. And the only two functioning switched scale-up networks in the world today are the ones that power our NVIDIA's GPUs, and Amazon's Traniums. Interesting. And this is why, I mean, this is why, you know, Google invented the MLPerf benchmark. They will not submit TPUs to their own benchmark, which you can just see is visibly driving Jensen crazy. But listen, the TPU is a great chip. I'm sure the TPU V9 is going to be amazing. They'll make more aggressive choices. I would never bet against Google.
3:02I would never bet against Broadcom. Um, but I do think Tranium is super underestimated right now. All right. So Gavin was talking about Amazon's Tranium. Now, what I did is I took that transcript and I put it into the AI model and I asked what stocks are going to appreciate and what did the AI model tell me when I asked? It told me a 30 % allocation in my portfolio to Marvel Technologies would be a solid decision. 30%. So not only did it tell me the stock, but it said, if you want to be hyper aggressive, 30%, that was a big number. but this became even more interesting because I did that back on May 14th, almost two and a half weeks ago.
3:39But yesterday, Jensen Huang, the NVIDIA CEO, he explicitly said the next trillion dollar company is Marvel technology. Whoa, the AI and Jensen saying the same thing? Well, Marvel was up about 20 % pre-market and it continued to be strong all day long. And Jensen's predicting about a 5X from here if he's right. So will Jensen Huang and ChatGPT both be right? I got no idea. But I don't believe in coincidences. And if the world's telling us to keep our eyes on Marvel, let's see what happens through the end of the year. And my guess is a lot of you should start using AI to take transcripts, feed it in, and simply ask what stocks will appreciate and likely that'll help your portfolio.
4:20SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, oh my. All of these companies, they're coming public and they're gonna do it at a trillion plus dollar valuation. And investors, they are salivating over these private behemoths coming into the public market. But just yesterday, Anthropic finally said, we're thinking about it. They claim that they have filed a confidential S1 with the SEC. And if Anthropic has come in public, of course, investors are interested. This company has$47 billion of annualized revenue. Their last private round was just under a trillion. They are growing at a bonkers pace, adding$10 billion of revenue per month.
4:55We have never seen anything like this before. My friend Shinali Bassik recently went on CNBC and she talked about the fact that these are unprecedented companies during unprecedented times. And that's why everyone's so interested. Take a listen to what Shinali said here. This is seen as one of those Facebook type moments, Amazon type moments, once in a lifetime access to companies that will fuel the future of a new technology economy at the end of the day. So even if there is nervousness on the front end as it pertains to the listing and maybe the first couple of quarters, there's a lot of hope that is really planted on the on the sidelines here on what these companies will mean in terms of how they fuel the AI race moving forward.
5:39Now, of course, the second that everyone hears Anthropics coming public, SpaceX is coming public, that means XAI is going to be public exposure as well. Everyone starts to say, oh, the bubble is going to pop. There's going to be too much supply coming into the market and investors. They're just simply going to go home. They are not going to buy up all of this supply that's coming public. I disagree. And so does Brad Gerstner. Brad Gerstner, he believes that you cannot call it a bubble if demand is literally not being met. There's too much demand and not enough supply. That means higher we go. Take a listen to Brad explain to the guys at TBPN why he sees no bubble right now.
6:15We are going to think about this. Open AI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're going to end the year closer to 10 and end next year closer to 20. We're making algorithmic improvements. We're making massive steps up the scaling law because the amount of compute we're going to have available to us. Think about, you know, macro hard and macro harder that Cursor is going to now be able to train a frontier level model on. So we've got incredible competition in America. We got the right amount of compute coming along. So there you guys have it.
6:48Brad is explicitly showing you that there is a lack of supply in many different components of the AI trait, whether it's power generation, whether it's actually in the physical infrastructure or it's in some of the software names. there is immense amount of demand. And if there's not enough supply, that means price has got to appreciate to accommodate everyone. That is just simple economics 101. But the same is true in public markets. Look at how much these stocks are being bid up. People keep saying, oh my God, look at how much they've appreciated. It must be a bubble. But if you look at the underlying earnings, the fundamentals of the business, the fundamentals are growing faster than the actual company stock price.
7:24That means the companies are getting cheaper, even though they're actually going up in market cap. We talked yesterday about Jordy Visser explaining how Eli Lilly saw revenue grow 55 % year over year. We see companies like Anthropic growing at an even faster pace. And so ultimately investors have to navigate this situation. There is one big thing that I continue to tell people. There's a rapid pace of information. There's a rapid pace of innovation. And there is a rapid pace of capital movement. We've never lived through anything like this in my lifetime at least. And as I continue to look at the market, I think investors have to remain calm.
7:58It's to be very thoughtful about what is happening here. And they have to realize the old George Soros quote, when I see a bubble forming, I rush in to push it higher. And the entire idea is that momentum begets momentum. When you think something is overvalued, it is much more likely that there are still plenty more to go. Peter Thiel's got a great way to think about this. When a private company raises capital at significant valuation jump, usually people get nervous, but instead they should view that as the company is still significantly undervalued because everyone gets anchored to the last price.
8:33Same thing's happening in the stock market. People are thinking back to prices that they saw a year ago or two years ago, but they're not actually looking at it from an objective standpoint. If you look at the fundamentals of these companies, if you look at their growth rates and you look at their stock prices, many of these stock prices, they make no sense. but not because they're overvalued. It's because they're undervalued. And that is a hard pill for people to swallow. But the people who recognize it, they're the ones who are gonna do best during this AI trait. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching.
9:00Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. Our goal is to get to 1 million subs on YouTube. Hit the subscribe button and I'll see all of you live from the desk of Anthony Pompliano tomorrow.
From the publisher
The best investors are always searching for alpha, but sometimes, it's as easy as listening to the top AI leaders who have their ear to the ground. With the beauty of AI, it's never been easier to go through their interviews and find investment themes they're ultra bullish on. In this video, I show you how to do just that, plus what two AI stocks Jensen Huang and Gavin Baker think will outperform from here on out. 0:00 Intro0:26 How to get alpha from top thought leaders and AI1:05 Gavin Baker is mega-bullish on Amazon Trainium chips3:30 Jensen Huang says this stock is next to go to a trillion-dollar valuation4:20 Anthropic is going public soon5:40 Will the "bubble" open once these companies go public? Listen to From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-desk-of-anthony-pompliano/id1819778503Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1THAGnR1Xt1WDUn1CCTh1DPomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at: http://pompletter.comJoin 600K+ subscribers on my main channel: https://pompyoutube.com/ Follow Pomp on social media:Twitter: https://twitter.com/APompliano Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pompglobal/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthonypompliano/#AnthonyPompliano #FromtheDesk #marketnews
