The "Trump Put" Is The Market’s New Risk-On Signal

0:00Hello, everyone. President Trump wants to give out$2 ,000 stimulus checks. Stocks and Bitcoin are ready to fly higher. The plight of young people can be boiled down to two charts. Mel Madison is going to explain why stocks are fighting off negative data, and a Neuralink patient proves just how powerful brain-computer interfaces are going to be. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:31Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube, but right now we only have 37 ,322 of you. Hit the subscribe button and push us one person closer to that goal. Let's get into today's episode. All right, ladies and gentlemen, the bears have been in control of financial markets lately. The S &P 500, it's down 2.5 % over last week. NASDAQ, that's down 4%, and Bitcoin's down 5 % over the same timeframe. It has been a sea of flashing red numbers for days. But have no fear, the Trump put is here. The President of the United States of America, he decided to come out swinging yesterday morning on Sunday, and he hit us with a truth social post that promised a$2 ,000 tariff dividend to every single U.S.

1:16citizen who isn't a high-income earner. Now, a tariff dividend set the world on fire. You didn't think the President, who measures the health of the U.S. economy and bases it on the stock market performance, that he was gonna sit around and let the bears take a victory lap, did you? Of course not. Now, will the tariff dividends happen? I have no idea. Poly market odds are only at 15 % right now. That's not a big number. Another question is whether it matters if the tariff dividends actually happen. I don't actually think so. The Trump put already had its intended impact. It only took this one social media post to completely change the direction of travel for asset prices.

1:52Stocks and Bitcoin have surged higher as enthusiasm has returned to the market. This is what the Trump put is all about. He has consistently made announcements that influence the stock market at opportune times. You may remember earlier this year, his social media post saying, this is a great time to buy in all caps. He did that right before the market bottomed in April of 2025. Then Trump backed down from his 100 % tariff threat in China about an hour, hour and a half before futures opened on a Sunday night just a few weeks ago. The market surged higher right afterwards. And then yesterday, amid all the panic and fear, the shining light on the hill was a simple promise from the leader of the free world.

2:30He was going to send billions of dollars in stimulus checks to the American people. Now, are stimulus checks a good idea for the long-term health of the U.S. economy? Of course not. Everyone knows that. Does anyone care right now? Not really. People are way too focused on the short-term fears of a stock market bubble or some sort of perceived incoming Bitcoin bear market. People don't like seeing red in their portfolio. And so if the president's going to hand out money, they're paying attention. Most people think if the president wants to hand out$2 ,000 to millions of citizens, especially right after a socialist agenda was voted into power in New York City, then let the man hand out the money, they say.

3:05It is a complete disregard for the long-term strength of the US economy, but it's also a complete disregard for the potential devaluation of the US dollar in effect. Remember, inflation can only be created in Washington, DC, and a very fast way to increase the odds of high inflation is to hand out thousands of dollars to hundreds of millions of people in this manner. But this Trump put is not the only thing likely to drive asset prices higher through the end of this year. We already know clarity on the China trade deals coming. We also saw the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in the same number of meetings.

3:37And now Polymarket is showing the odds improving of the government shutdown, which is supposed to be resolved before November 15th. So if we take a look at these odds here, we can see on Sunday morning, we started out with a 62 % odds of the shutdown being resolved after November 16th. 62 % odds after November 16th. But throughout the last 24 hours, those odds plummeted to only 7%, 62 % down to 7%. A big reason for this change is the report last night that an agreement was reached in the Senate that would see enough Democrats step across the aisle and vote for the government to reopen. If we get that government shutdown behind us, guess what?

4:14You should expect stocks and Bitcoin to go higher quickly. But don't take my word for it. Opening Bell Daily's Phil Rosen, he writes that the United States has seen 21 shutdowns in the last 50 years. The S &P 500 has gained 1.2 % on average one month later and 2.9 % three months later. Stocks are almost always higher after a government shutdown, Phil says. But it's not just stocks. Altcoin Gordon shows that Bitcoin rallied 50 % in three months coming out of the last government shutdown. 50 % in three months, all because the government shutdown ended. So what's going to happen this time? Should we be excited?

4:50No one knows. I don't know. And you don't know. We are all trying to predict an unknowable future. But what I have learned in the last five or six years is to trust the vibes, trust the sentiment, trust the animal spirits, whatever you want to call it, you can feel it in the air. How people feel about the market tends to determine how the market performs. And last week was a perfect example. The fear porn and the negative takes, they were obvious everywhere. Every headline, every talking head on television, everyone was bearish. Folks were predicting the next Bitcoin bear market or the end of the stock market rally.

5:24We'll pump the brakes for a second. This week's already different. We just needed the promise of some stimulus checks to get everyone giddy again. And if everyone's giddy, capital will flow right back into the market, lifting asset prices higher. I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but one thing that I know, I know not to fade the Trump put, and we got that put yesterday. So that means that asset prices are responding positively and the bull market is back on again. Now, it is no secret that young people are suffering in the modern economy. They not only can't seem to get ahead, but they continue to fall further and further and further behind.

5:58The situation is dire. Peter Thiel recently warned that we should expect young people to continue turning to socialism until the core issues are addressed. I don't think Peter's wrong here. So what exactly is the problem? Well, I personally think that you can boil all the pain down to two simple charts. First, the number of workers needed at S &P 500 companies to generate$1 million in revenue. That number has been cratering since the 1980s. It used to take nearly 10 employees to generate a million dollars of revenue. But now Bank of America says that we are down to about two employees. This type of 80 % reduction over a few decades shows just how companies are becoming more efficient and more productive, which is another way of saying job prospects are diminishing, especially for young people.

6:44Companies simply need less people to produce more profits. That means less jobs that are available. Some folks may hate the company for this. They may yell and scream about capitalism, but it's a natural trend of technology. Hello, automation. Hello, artificial intelligence. There's a saying I once heard that if people were upset about manual laborers who dig with shovels in the dirt, if they were mad that they were being replaced by machines, then why don't we just require the laborers to dig with spoons instead? The absurdity of that example highlights the point. You can't fight technology, so it's not worth raging against it.

7:16Just understand that young people are having a very, very hard time right now finding jobs. No wonder they're feeling the pain. But the story doesn't stop there. I promised you two charts, so here's the second one. Home price to income ratio. Breaking point Sagar and Jetty writes, home prices to buyer income ratio went sky high in 2021, and it's barely budging. This is the whole ballgame. Now, I don't disagree with them. If wages can't keep up with home prices, then wages aren't keeping up with groceries or every other day items. Everyone's focused on the fact that people can't afford a home. And obviously, that's a horrible situation that should be taken seriously.

7:53But the real travesty is that young people in particular, they can't afford anything. Nothing seems real, and everything seems expensive. Every single place they turn, prices are going higher. Homes are just one of the easiest ways that we can actually measure this inflation affecting these people. So the pain felt by these young people is very real, but you can boil it down to a declining job market and the fact that wages can't keep up with inflation. If you could somehow wave a magic wand and solve these two problems, an entire generation would be significantly much better off. I recently sat down with Mel Madison to talk about the stock market, and he explained three things that he's watching for cracks in the armor of the stock market.

8:33Take a listen to what Mel had to say. We were making new highs last week and we just weren't seeing a lot of the stocks, just a pure number of stocks kind of following along and saying, hey, we're buying into this all over the place, across all sectors, that sort of thing. And so one way to look at that is percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average. It was peaking out over 50 % last week and then it kind of precipitously dropped off. And as you said, it was at 39 % as of the close yesterday. So you'd like to see that over 50. You start getting below 50 and a move to like the 20-day moving average is no big deal.

9:19But we've had a number of stocks that are basically gone in their own bear markets that are down 20, 30%. And so again, I'm seeing that as healthy because a lot of those stocks that are are the frost stocks that have been up, you know, 200 % this year, 500 % in the last two years. And so to see them come in 20, 25 % is a healthy thing. But when you do start seeing that, and then, you know, you have the algorithms that play off of these types of moves, selling can beget selling. You've had this sentiment. You had the Michael Berry disclosure of NVIDIA and Palantir puts. So you've had this sentiment creep in that, hey, we could be getting top evaluations extended.

10:03Meta had a very poor reaction to their earnings when they basically expanded their CapEx. So you have to be fair, right? You have to admit when there are negative things out there, you need to recognize them. And I think that's one reason why cutting back on exposure when you get a very euphoric run like we saw last week where we were just shooting up every day, you know, it makes sense to say, hey, let me pull some cash in so that if we do go down in the coming days or weeks, there's money there to put back in at lower prices. And then we have this positive seasonality out there that I don't think can be ignored.

10:43You know, people talk about portfolio managers needing to chase to keep up with their benchmarks. You look at basically past years when the market's been up 15 % at the end of October, what happens in November, December. And so to have a little brief pause in the action, everybody catch their breath, all that stuff that I think is happening. I think the key thing is to remain calm and not get all panicky and say, oh my gosh, I've got good profits. I need to sell everything now and book those. Nobody gets hurt taking some profits once in a while. But to also keep in mind there's a lot of positive things on the horizon and that the volatility is a feature, not a bug of high uptrend markets, as we talked about last time, all the big pullbacks in the Nasdaq during the dotcom boom.

11:35And I think we're going to see a lot more 1 % days in the market in 2026. And we're going to see a lot more five,$6 ,000 candles in Bitcoin. And that's just going to become par for the course. So there you have it. The three things are 39 % of S &P companies are above their 50-day moving average. There's low breadth in the market and a general pickup in the VIX and shaky market sentiment. Now, I agree with Mel. These things are worth paying attention to, but they're not yet fully concerning. The stock market looks poised to go higher and seeing someone like Mel, who's rational. He looks at the balls and the strikes.

12:10He looks at the positives and the negatives. The fact that he's bullish is an important sign. Every once in a while you see a video of the future. And that's what we saw this weekend. Alex Conley, one of the Neuralink patients, he tweeted the following. I use the Neuralink to write code for Arduino to allow me to control an RC airplane with a quad stick. The possibilities are truly endless. Thank you, Elon and the entire team at Neuralink. I'm honored to be part of such a great program. Now, just think about this for a second. This guy has a brain computer interface implanted in his brain and he is able to use it to code on a connected device.

12:47That connected device is then attached to an RC airplane that he can control even though he's lost many of his motor skills. This is the power of technology. This is the whole idea of giving people a higher quality of life. These brain-computer interfaces, they're obviously being used for medical purposes right now, but I think that they are going to become way more pervasive than anyone is giving them credit for. Something like this is a cool, shiny example of what's possible. But I think that you can take this and extrapolate it out. And the brain-computer interface is likely going to be one of the single most disruptive pieces of technology in our lifetime.

13:23It's pretty cool to see Alex doing this. It's pretty cool to see Elon and the Neuralink team racing into the future. And I'm pretty bullish on seeing this come to fruition. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube. as I mentioned we have 37 ,322 subscribers I need your help to get to my goal of 1 million hit the subscribe button and I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano