In short
From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano
Episode Summary
Trump’s Gold Card Just Dropped — And It Might Be A $1 Trillion Product
Overview In this episode, Anthony Pompliano discusses the launch of the Trump Gold Card, its potential economic impact, and insights on various market trends, including the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and Bitcoin's evolving status in the financial world.
Key Takeaways
- Trump Gold Card Launch
- The Trump Gold Card has seen impressive early adoption with 25,000 signups in just 15 hours, potentially signaling a revenue of $125 billion.
- If the trend continues, it could scale to a trillion-dollar product, reshaping the perception of U.S. immigration and revenue generation.
- Market Impact of the Israel-Iran Conflict
- Jordy Visser, a Wall Street veteran, explains the historical context of market reactions to conflicts.
- Initial reactions may cause market fluctuations, but these often stabilize as the situation resolves.
- Past conflicts have shown that the impact on oil prices and the economy may be short-lived.
- Bitcoin is viewed as a digital asset that reacts to overall economic conditions rather than being a direct hedge against geopolitical events.
- Cardano Founder’s Shift to Bitcoin
- Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, plans to convert a significant portion of his altcoin treasury into Bitcoin, indicating a belief in Bitcoin's stability and long-term value:
- Suggests that this strategy could enhance the value of ADA in the long run.
- Reflects a growing trend among altcoin founders recognizing Bitcoin's dominance in the market.
- Critique of Market Pessimism
- David Sachs critiques the alarmist predictions made by market elites regarding economic downturns.
- Recent economic data suggests a rebound, with GDP growth projected at 3.8%, job growth, and decreasing inflation.
- Emphasizes that optimism can be an advantage in investing, as markets typically trend upwards over time.
- Speculative Attacks on Bitcoin
- The concept of a speculative attack on Bitcoin is gaining traction, where altcoin holders liquidate their assets to invest in Bitcoin.
- This strategy is becoming a common approach for many in the crypto space, showcasing the growing demand and perceived value of Bitcoin.
Detailed Discussion Points
Market Reactions to Global Events
- Historical patterns indicate that while immediate volatility occurs following global conflicts, the long-term market impact is often minimal unless the situation escalates significantly.
- Example: Oil prices surged after the Russia-Ukraine conflict but normalized shortly thereafter.
The Rise of Bitcoin
- The narrative around Bitcoin as a solid investment continues to strengthen, with significant capital moving from altcoins to Bitcoin.
- Companies like MetaPlanet demonstrate the shift, amassing large Bitcoin holdings which are increasingly attracting investor attention.
The Trump Gold Card's Economic Implications
- The Gold Card program proposes a new avenue for generating revenue through immigration, which could substantially reduce U.S. debt.
- The notion that 200,000 signups could equate to $1 trillion in revenue emphasizes the potential market fit and financial benefits of the initiative.
Conclusion Anthony Pompliano highlights the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of financial markets amidst geopolitical tensions, alongside the continuous evolution of cryptocurrency investments. He underscores the transformative potential of the Trump Gold Card, both for immigration and national revenue, while advocating for a more optimistic investment outlook.
Additional Resources
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This episode provides a fascinating lens on contemporary economic challenges, the cryptocurrency landscape, and the interplay between global events and market sentiment.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hello, everyone. We've got a lot to discuss today. A Wall Street veteran explains how to think about the market impact of the Israel-Iran conflict from this weekend. An altcoin founder is dumping all his coins to try to buy Bitcoin. We finally have proof that most people got the stock market wrong earlier this year, and it looks like the U.S. government, they could raise$1 trillion from the brand new Trump card. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.
0:33Every time some sort of conflict kicks off somewhere in the world, we see people dropping bombs, firing missiles, and there's all kinds of fear mongering all over the news. Now, of course, the first thing that people in the investment community want to understand is what is this going to do to the market? Obviously, war, it's a horrible situation. People are dying. People are being injured. Nobody wants war. But if you're an investor, you got to ask yourself what is going to be the impact on the market. And now we have Jordy Visser, a 30 year veteran on Wall Street, who explains exactly how he sees his playing out.
1:04Well, let's break it down into two parts. The first one is every single time in history that any country or any war breaks out in any side. So anytime missiles are fired, anytime there's an invasion, the immediate reaction is what we've seen so far, particularly when it involves countries in either the Middle East or Russia. You get the immediate reaction. For those who think Bitcoin should rally on this, Bitcoin at the end of the day is always going to be related to the economy and especially the digital economy. So it's going to have part being stocks and part being get away from the governments.
1:42So I never see it as a geopolitical hedge and I just leave it at that for Bitcoin. I've been involved with markets from a trading perspective and reacting to events like this for 30 years now. That's how long that I had a trading portfolio. That's how long I literally had to make a decision. And I understand younger people who look at this and their brain immediately goes to some dark place. But the reality is these conflicts usually end up being a major event for day one, day two, a week later, they become lessened as long as it's not escalating in a big way. And I'll just use a couple examples.
2:21Iran fired missiles into Israel back in December, I believe, of last year. I don't know if people remember that, but they sent two, 300 missiles at Israel after Israel assassinated someone inside the country. And so you end up with a situation that people think this is going to be a bigger issue. When Israel went into Gaza, we ended up in a situation where everyone said, if something starts with Hezbollah, then this is going to be a major thing. So I don't want to minimize the fact that we have an Iran who's threatened nukes before, and we don't know exactly what they have. But the reality is these things usually kind of flame out.
3:07Russia, Ukraine has not had an impact on the markets that people believed. And I'll just mention that in the last 15 years, the highest price in oil was one week after Russia invaded Ukraine. So these things normally don't have a long lasting impact. If oil stays at 100 plus for three months, it'll start to have an impact. But if it just goes up and it stays here for a week and then it falls back down to where it was beforehand, it will have no impact on the global economy whatsoever. That's always great to hear someone who's been able to see bull markets and bear markets, seen times of peace and times of war, and how those different things have impacted a portfolio.
3:41Jordi obviously has a lot of detail in terms of what we should expect to happen both in the market, but also what's going to happen from a conflict basis. Again, war is nasty. This stuff should stop immediately. But at the end of the day, you have countries and you have different philosophies that are at war with each other. And now it's spilling over into actual violence. And so I hope that people on both sides, the innocent civilians, they're actually sheltered from all of this craziness and we can quickly get back to a world of peace. But as an investor, you're going to have to navigate what happens between now and then.
4:14You know, you begin thinking you've seen nearly everything that is possible after you've been in this industry, the Bitcoin and crypto industry for nearly a decade. But every once in a while, you see something new that absolutely surprises you. That's exactly what happened yesterday when I saw a video clip of Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson. He took a recent recording and what What he said blew my mind. Here's what he had to say about selling his altcoins from the Cardano treasury in order to buy more Bitcoin. I do believe that it will not materially impact Cardano by doing a conversion of 5 % to 10 % of the treasury into stable assets and assets like Bitcoin.
4:48And in doing this, we can create a yield and that yield on an annual basis can be used to purchase ADA and over time replenish the treasury. And if this program is successful, then we can actually continue that strategy on an annualized basis and over a period of five to 10 years, potentially grow to a billion dollar plus stable coin treasury and Bitcoin treasury to augment and enhance the ADA value in the treasury that we have. This sets us up for great returns and for a pretty stable floor for the ecosystem as a whole, like you would want in any good sovereign wealth fund. Now, this clip is eye opening for a number of reasons.
5:24First, Hoskinson is essentially admitting that his altcoin will not be able to hold water compared to Bitcoin over time. The only way to create long-term economic value is to sell the altcoin treasury and purchase Bitcoin. This seems to signal to me that the altcoin founders understand that Bitcoin is never going away. Second of all, Hoskinson seems to understand that the Bitcoin treasury companies are conducting a speculative attack on Bitcoin. They're selling shares in their company to buy Bitcoin. And so now the altcoin foundations, they got the ability to sell their altcoins to buy Bitcoin.
5:54The speculative attack, which was popularized by Pierre Rochard in 2014, has become one of the most important ideas to further the adoption of Bitcoin in recent years. And now third, and maybe most interestingly, the dominant performance of Bitcoin treasury companies has become too breathtaking to ignore. Take MetaPlanet as one example. Simon Girovich, Dylan LeClaire, and the team over at MetaPlanet have created one of the best performing stocks in the world. The company has grown their Bitcoin balance sheet from zero Bitcoin to 10 ,000 Bitcoin in a little over a year. It's just incredible to watch.
6:25And look at this chart. It is eye-opening. So imagine you're sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars in altcoins, and you are watching them continue to degrade in value against Bitcoin. You naturally start thinking it could be economically accretive to sell the altcoins and buy Bitcoin. This is no different than selling debased US dollars or public company equity. We are watching the speculative attack permeate every corner of the financial world. Everyone wants Bitcoin, and they're willing to sell whatever value they have in their portfolio in order to get more Bitcoin. This has long been the thesis of Bitcoiners.
6:55Hard money ultimately sucks capital into its black hole. And it's pretty cool to see that thesis playing out globally today. So if you think Bitcoin is close to topping out for this cycle, you must also remember that we still have a long way to go in order for Bitcoin to catch up to the global M2 supply. Raul Paul recently highlighted that 89%, 89 % of all Bitcoin's price action is explained by global liquidity. This suggests that Bitcoin should see$150 ,000 price point in the coming months, but no one, including me, has a crystal ball. So let's see what happens. Bitcoin's infiltrating Wall Street new ways every day.
7:27People want to see as much of the digital asset as they can get their hands on. And a speculative attack is not a bad way to do it, especially as we see if you are sitting on a treasury of altcoins. David Sachs was on the All In podcast over the weekend, and he said that the elites that were scaremongering on tariffs and predicting doom, they were wrong. Take a listen to what David had to say. You'll recall that back in early April, Jim Cramer predicted we'd see a Black Monday in response to Trump's tariffs. And that's all the proof that we should have known that we're about to get a bunch of good economic news.
8:01And it wasn't just Jim Cramer. I mean, Larry Summers was on our pod with that big debate that we did, and he was predicting doom. And what we're seeing now is good economic news is breaking out all over. So Q2 GDP on track for 3.8 % according to the Atlanta Fed. The May jobs report was above expected, plus 139 ,000. CPI, inflation down to 2.4%. So growth is back. Inflation is low. And what you saw over the last few months was the elites in both parties, I'll give you that, they were scaremongering on tariffs and predicting doom. And they've been proven to be out of touch with popular sentiment and reality.
8:39I mean, you don't want to spike the football too soon, but things look really good right now. Now, I got to agree with David. There was a lot of fear mongering. I remember people talking about recessions, depressions, Black Friday, all kinds of crazy stuff. But let's take a data-driven an approach. Bar chart, they said that on April 7th, 62 % of investors were bearish on the market. That was the most since the global financial crisis. What happened to the S &P 500 since then? It's up 18%. So remember, the pessimists always sound smart, but they almost never make money. Being an optimist is an advantage in a market that is structurally engineered to go up and to the right.
9:10And that's exactly what's happened over the last couple of months. We've previously talked about the Trump gold card. The whole idea is if you got cash and you want to become a citizen in the United States, we got you. Don't worry. Give us some of the cash and we'll get you hooked up in the fast lane to become a citizen. Plenty of people don't like it, but if you can help us get more revenue and actually stop us expanding our debt, then you get to get in that fast lane. And now after the Trump gold card just launched, Howard Lutnick, the secretary of the commerce, he went on television and he said 25 ,000 people signed up in the first 15 hours.
9:43Crazy. Listen to Howard here. Okay, so last night we launched trumpcard.gov. So you go to trumpcard.gov and you can get on the waiting list. And then we're just signing up for the waiting list. We're getting everything set up. And then we had 25 ,000 people sign up. That's great. In the last 15 hours. I knew it. I knew it. You know, coming to America, you guys, you know, we all live in America. We take it for granted. Let me tell you, the rest of the world. They want to come. They really want to come. And this is really the whole idea. You realize that 200 ,000 people, right? That's a trillion dollars.
10:26And the idea is, is we give away, think about this. We give away 281 ,000 visas a year through what's called the family plan, the diversity plan, and the EB one through five plan, 281 ,000. If we did this plan for 200 ,000, We'd have 30 % less immigration and we make the United States of America a trillion dollars to help pay for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. I mean, this is the right plan if I've ever heard the right plan. No, no, you're right. You're gonna - Now here's the crazy part. If we have$125 billion signed up in less than 24 hours from only 25 ,000 people, I'm not Albert Einstein, I'm not a human calculator, but it looks like if 200 ,000 people sign up, that's$1 trillion.
11:17Imagine launching a product from the government and getting a trillion dollars of revenue. That is product market fit. And so my expectation is that people all around the world who got cash, they wanna become a US citizen. They're gonna get in the fast lane. They're gonna hand us our cash and we might just make a trillion dollars off of this. That's it for today's show. Hope you guys are enjoying this. I'm having an absolute blast putting this together for you every single morning. Make sure that you're following us on X and of course, subscribe to the YouTube channel. I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano
From the publisher
The Trump Gold Card is finally live — and the first-day numbers are wild. Howard Lutnick claims there were 25,000 signups in just 15 hours, which comes out to $125 billion in revenue. If this momentum holds, we could be looking at a trillion-dollar product in no time. Here’s why this might be the best products of all time!
0:00 Intro
0:33 How Israel-Iran conflict will affect global markets
4:14 Cardano founder wants to dump ADA to create Bitcoin treasury
7:39 David Sacks calls out the doomers who got it wrong
9:14 Trump Gold Card is off to a YUGE start
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