In short
Episode topic: Onchain finance growth—covering (1) Treasury long-end bond buybacks and “debasement”/QE-like effects on Bitcoin, gold, and rates; (2) Galaxy’s Q2 centralized lending report; (3) social trading’s move from tokenized content to copy-trading PnL; (4) Robinhood Chain and Robinhood’s tokenized stocks; (5) ICO/ownership-coin “ICO 2.0” regulatory pathways.
Guests and backgrounds
Bimnet Abibi (Galaxy Trading) focuses on markets, rates, and crypto/macro correlations. Zack Pokorny/Zach Bacorny (Galaxy Research) authors onchain lending and tokenization research; works with blockchain data and lending metrics.
Key claims
Treasury tripled long-end buyback potential (market read as yield-curve control), supporting Bitcoin/gold. Centralized lending is more resilient as unsecured lending shrank; Tether dominates and may shift activity to DeFi. Social trading’s first killer app is trading crypto on social (PnL visibility), with FOMO doing billions/day volume. Robinhood Chain is a top Ethereum L2 by gas/active usage; tokenized stocks drive demand via meme-coin “pairing” with stocks.
Notable examples
KelpDAO exploit freezing Aave markets; Bitcoin drawdown around -53% from ATH; FOMO app (mostly ultra-low-cap meme coins); Robinhood tokenized AMC controversy; speculation meme-coin communities could buy controlling stakes (Zach gives ~40% chance).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOWest Texas Trip Insights
0:45 to 1:39
Discussion about the recent trip to West Texas and the Helios data center.
“We'll also talk with our good friend, Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading, as always, about markets.”
Football and Community in Lubbock
1:39 to 3:29
Recap of the Texas Tech home opener and the hospitality of Lubbock.
“You cannot fathom the size of this thing, first of all, the existing data hall that's been built and delivered.”
Market Analysis and Treasury Discussions
3:36 to 7:23
In-depth analysis of recent market movements and Treasury buyback programs.
“I have not been following markets very closely.”
Yield Curve Control and Economic Indicators
7:23 to 8:49
Discussion on yield curve control and economic indicators affecting markets.
“Is he actually basically saying that he will bring out more money too if needed?”
Commodity Price Inflation and Predictions
8:49 to 14:00
Exploration of rising commodity prices and their impact on inflation.
“So they can wield the cannon many times, potentially.”
Inflation and Market Manipulation
14:00 to 20:40
Discussing the current inflation trends and market responses.
“You also revised higher some of the other months' worth of data.”
Bitcoin's Role in Economic Uncertainty
20:40 to 22:00
Examining how Bitcoin's value relates to economic decisions and policies.
“Yeah, this is like what Mike's been saying, though, for the years, right?”
Lending Report Insights
22:30 to 26:50
Diving deep into the latest centralized lending report and its implications.
“Obviously, there's tons of data-driven stuff from on-chain in there, but where is the league table of centralized lending firms this time?”
The Rise of Social Trading Apps
26:50 to 28:01
Exploring the emergence and trends of social trading in the crypto space.
“But FOMO is this app, FOMO, great name for social trading app.”
Social Trading and Tokenization Trends
28:01 to 29:41
Explore the evolving landscape of social trading and tokenization in finance.
“Like even when you compare like terminals from like the Trump coin era, which was like nobody ever thought we would get back to that point.”
Show all 18 chapters
The Rise of Meme Coins and Market Impact
29:41 to 31:06
Discuss the resurgence of meme coins and their significant market influence.
“Like the president of the United States launched a meme coin.”
Tokenized Stocks and On-Chain Speculation
31:06 to 33:07
Analyze the implications of tokenized stocks and on-chain trading behavior.
“But I think this chain is the number one gas payer on Ethereum right now, and it's the most widely used by active users in volume of all the Ethereum L2s at this moment as we record.”
Concerns Over Tokenized Assets
33:07 to 34:55
Examine the concerns surrounding tokenized assets from issuers and market participants.
“So it's a meme coin that trades in with the base?”
The Possibility of Meme Coin Takeovers
34:55 to 36:39
Speculate on the potential for meme coin communities to acquire public companies.
“What do people in crypto think about that that you saw?”
Current Trends in ICOs and Tokenization
36:39 to 42:05
Delve into the current state and future of ICOs and tokenization frameworks.
“Yeah, no, that stuff is still up and running.”
The Role of Tokens in Early Business Development
42:05 to 43:08
Explore the complexities of tokens as equity-like instruments and their impact on investment.
“Or you may just be completely barred from owning a token in general, which I think is the big next open question for a lot of these ICOs.”
Future of Blockchain and Tokenization
43:08 to 46:03
Discussion on the grand vision for blockchain, the tokenization of assets, and its implications.
“How do you think this is going to play out for blockchains?”
Market Dynamics and Regulatory Considerations
46:03 to 47:39
Analysis of market trends, regulatory challenges, and the future of tokenized securities.
“because again all these tokenized stocks we're talking about are for ex-US today but maybe with the U.S.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Alex Thorn:Welcome to Galaxy Brains.
0:25Alex Thorn:Welcome back to Galaxy Brains. As always, I'm your host, Alex Thorne, head of firm-wide research at Galaxy. Bitcoin, not zero. We have a great episode for you this week. Zach Bacorny from Galaxy Research joins us to talk about Robinhood chain, tokenized stocks, what's going on in social trading, and much more. Zach's in the trenches working the data on blockchains at Galaxy Research and has a lot of interesting insights. We'll also talk with our good friend, Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading, as always, about markets. We're talking a lot about the Fed, the Treasury, the interesting spot that the U.S.
0:59Alex Thorn:government and the Fed find themselves in vis-a-vis, whether to hike or cut, to hold, what inflation looks like, the price of oil going up, and much more. Before we get to that, I need to remind you to please refer to the link to the disclaimer in the show notes. And note that none of the information in this show constitutes investment advice or an offer, recommendation, or solicitation by Galaxy or any of its affiliates to buy or sell any securities. Wow, Phineas, we're back. We were in West Texas. Phineas was with me. He was out there shooting some awesome content. I won't spoil it, but I think there's some great content coming out from our trip to West Texas by Phineas and his team and others at Galaxy who were there, including me.
1:38Alex Thorn:And we went and visited Helios, Galaxy's data center there in Dickens County, Texas. Absolute sight to behold. You cannot fathom the size of this thing, first of all, the existing data hall that's been built and delivered. but also the project going on to build more there. Truly astonishing. I'm like sending back pictures of backhoes and excavators to my kid who loves construction vehicles. Every single one you could imagine was there. I visited Helios for the first time in 2023 when we were, of course, only mining Bitcoin there. And the transition into whatever it is, whatever tier or whatever data center that it is, because I guess they're different.
2:22Alex Thorn:You know, they're not just mining with ASICs. You got to do it. And you got tenant, your clients this time. You know, we're the data hall and energy provider. But, you know, you got somebody else's equipment you got to do a good job for. Building looks completely different. Absolutely insane. Can't wait for you to see those videos that we'll produce in the near future. Also, we went to the home opener at Texas Tech where Galaxy is the named stadium partner. So Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Awesome game. They absolutely crushed ACU, Abilene Christian University, I believe it was called. And just a great time.
3:03Alex Thorn:People in Lubbock and in West Texas. So nice. Very hospitable and welcoming of Galaxy. And we're very happy for that because we love to be there. Been building there since 2022 and have big plans to keep building there. And I just got to say, so fun going to that game. They love their football. And I got to say it. I'm in the tank for these guys. Big Texas Tech Red Raiders fan right here. So, Wreck-Em Tech, guns up, baby. Let's get right into it with Bimnet Abibi. Let's go now to our friend Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading. As always, Bimnet, welcome back to Galaxy Brains. Thanks for having me.
3:38Alex Thorn:I've been away. I was in West Texas. I have no idea really. I couldn't tell. I mean. Let's go Wreck-Em Tech, guns up, baby. I have not been following markets very closely. Yeah. Bitcoin's been pinned in this area. So, you know, that one number that I follow. What's been happening the last week or so in equity markets? I know you were talking about I heard you talking about some, you know, long end bond pricing earlier today. What's the big story right now?
4:03Beimnet Abebe:Well, the rally in Bitcoin and broader crypto as well as gold that started about three, four weeks ago was started by Secretary Besant saying that he will increase the size of the Treasury buyback program, that he would double it. Subsequent to those comments, he suggested that he was going to increase it even further. And today we got the formal announcement from Treasury that essentially tripled the potential size of the buyback. So what the buyback is, and this is specific to the long-end buyback, is an operation that the Treasury runs to buy back certain parts of the Treasury curve that they've issued, longer-dated stuff.
4:53Beimnet Abebe:They buy it back, decommission the paper, and then they issue T-bills or some other things. And so effectively what the market viewed it as was a line in the sand where the Treasury was going to step in to effectively, you know, what people will say, print money.
5:12Alex Thorn:Yeah.
5:12Beimnet Abebe:But it's not – it's really managed – Because it's not the Fed, right, doing it.
5:16Alex Thorn:It's not. That would be printing money for sure.
5:18Beimnet Abebe:But effectively it is in a way because when the Fed issues more T-bills, it has to get absorbed into the market. And as you know, like a couple months ago, the Fed had to – more than a couple months ago – but the Fed had to start buying back T-bills to inject reserves back into the system because SOFR started blowing out. So if you look at a chart of the Fed's balance sheet, it's actually started to move higher again. So we are technically in a period where the Fed's balance sheet is actively expanding, and I would define that as QE. But there might be some debate around that because the Fed doesn't want you to think about it as QE.
5:56Beimnet Abebe:But it is QE. Anyway, and so the realization that the government was willing to step in if yields got to some level was a big catalyst because it kind of like, what's the value of money? If you just like print it all the time and if you don't like a price, like you just adjust it. And so, and there was like a bit of disillusionment because of some of the tension between what Warsh has said previously and what Besant wants. Warsh is in the camp of reducing the size of the Fed's security portfolio, balance sheet runoff, et cetera. And it seems like Besant is in the opposite of that. So this friction and this inconsistency coupled with the fact that, you know, Warsh lost a little bit of credibility during the first FOMC.
6:45Beimnet Abebe:He didn't hike when the market was telling him that he could. And so, essentially, there's a lot of focus on this stuff. And the comments around, the comments that Besant has recently made, made it seem like it could have been bigger than$6 billion, but it came in at$6 billion and it's like, they buy back the par amount. So it's like...
7:08Alex Thorn:Yeah, he initially said two, right? Four. Four, and now it's six. Now it's six. But we've even been saying, and you were saying, that it's not so much the size of the cannon. It's merely the signal that he's willing to use it that is really what was moving markets. And just sort of recreating this debasement trade, and that helps explain gold and Bitcoin moving, which have been moving at a high correlation, one of its highest 30-day correlations I've seen in a long time with gold and Bitcoin. But does it, is he base? Is he actually basically saying that he will bring out more money too if needed?
7:43Alex Thorn:That's what the market is assuming, right?
7:45Beimnet Abebe:Net-net, it's a flat money transaction because he's got to issue more.
7:49Alex Thorn:He takes cash from what the TGA, the Treasury General account, and buys back debt on the market, long-dated bonds, cancels the debt because it's debt they owe themselves at that point, and then issues maybe a similar amount back on the front end. And so it really is just like he's basically just taking money from the TGA and using it to just restructure the debt profile. So it's not – yes, it isn't like net – but again, could he do it at much bigger scale?
8:19Beimnet Abebe:Like how much money do they have for this? Well, the TGA typically runs around like$850 billion. Okay. So they do have a lot more.
8:27Alex Thorn:They do have a lot more, but it really is – It would signal a lot of fear if they started using that at a much bigger scale, wouldn't it?
8:36Beimnet Abebe:yes, it would. You know, I think$6 billion is kind of the cusp of like, it's hard to gauge. Yeah. But it's a big number. Right. It is a lot of money. It is a lot of money. It's every operation. Yeah. Right, up to that amount.
8:54Alex Thorn:Wow, per time they do it. I see. Correct. So they can wield the cannon many times, potentially. And is this kind of like, I know it's different, And usually it's like the central bank that would be doing yield curve control. But this kind of is. This is yield curve control. Yeah, from the treasury.
9:11Beimnet Abebe:Absolutely. Because do we know what the line is? Well, we've always had yield curve control. It just hasn't been explicit policy. But there's always been a time when they'll buy it back. Yeah. I mean, Yellen, when we were hiking rates and the back end supply had increased, she came out and like cut like treasury supply when tens were approaching that 5 % area. And so this isn't something that is unprecedented, but it just comes at a situation that's like a lot worse where you've got energy prices climbing like crazy. I mean oil is up another 3.5 % today alone. I know.
9:44Alex Thorn:I remember I wanted to be long oil in and around the Iran war situation. And I was – I mean wanting to be long oil, I was very disappointed for a while because we got back down in the 60s, didn't we?
9:57Beimnet Abebe:Like 68? Yeah. WTI front. But it is.
9:59Alex Thorn:I see it is coming back. I also see that war is simmering still.
10:04Beimnet Abebe:It's simmering. There's some simmers. I think the market has gotten its head around the fact that the Iranians are in a bad financial situation. And every day that passes, it gets worse. And so the chances of a more reasonable outcome, less kinetic one, is probably increasing over time. but at the same time you could make the case that maybe this pushes them to be even... Yeah, they get desperate, lash out. So it's a very hard mix of things.
10:36Alex Thorn:But they are kind of out of, it seems like, I do not know, but out of very serious retaliation. They're doing stuff through proxy. I saw some annoying stuff in the straight with some boats but it seems like they're very degraded. So it's like, yeah, I feel you're sort of saying the market is anticipating, if it does continue to be sort of a lower-grade simmer for Rob, right?
10:59Beimnet Abebe:I mean, it's just hard. Sorry, I should just say that's pure speculation. There's a lot of speculation, and I think the most important things to focus on are you've got PPI out tomorrow, you've got CPI out on Friday. Between those two, you'll have a good idea of where CorePCE will print, and you've got Warsh in his FOMC meeting next Wednesday. and you have 16 basis points price. How does it work, by the way?
11:29Alex Thorn:You were saying how, you know, the market was telling him the last meeting that he could hike, but they didn't hike. Is it literally a straight vote, or is it like there's ultimately the chair of the FOC? They're voting members.
11:44Beimnet Abebe:No, no, no, it's a vote. Oh, so it is a vote. It's a committee vote, and there are specific voting members. But is he very influential? He is influential.
11:52Alex Thorn:I'm saying so like we – not just us but like the market is always talking about Powell or Greenspan or Yellen. Like – sorry, not Yellen. Was she out of the Fed? Yes, she was. Yeah, OK. Sorry. That's weird. Usually you go the other direction. I feel like Fed is like the job you retire from. Yeah, we blame you. So Yellen didn't cut or Greenspan didn't cut or didn't hike or whatever. But it's actually all those FOMC governing voting members, right?
12:18Beimnet Abebe:But if the chair wants to, they can typically influence you, think? The precedent is that what the chair wants usually goes. Yeah. And I don't think it's different. That's why it's such an important job, specifically. Absolutely. Yeah. But I think what we have here is an insane setup going into this FOMC because it's a very similar setup to the last FOMC meeting where you have a lot baked in in terms of potential hikes. and if he chooses not to hike um those credibility concerns might pop up again now he did a good job at jackson hole of explaining it explaining it and the the nuance here is that in his first fomc he did not give the market enough color about his response function in fact he didn't give it the market enough color about what he's actually even looking at, right?
13:19Beimnet Abebe:And so what metrics he cares most about. And so the market was just like, you can't tell me that you're not going to give me any information about anything and you're going to ask me to trust you. And at the same time, like when you were expected to hike or reasonable chance, you come in and hold and you're not giving me that much info, like, come on, dude. And that just makes people uncertain and that was bad for risk assets.
13:44Alex Thorn:Right.
13:45Beimnet Abebe:And so you might have a little bit of that. Could be a replay. Could be a replay. But I think this time is a little different because you actually have a greater appreciation for the things that he's looking at. But if you look at what's come out, you had a gangbusters 163 ,000 job print for nonfarm payrolls last week. You also revised higher some of the other months' worth of data. So the labor market looks okay. The inflation data that you're getting in the next two days is backward-looking because it's the month of August. But it doesn't capture a lot of this huge rise in oil that you've had since.
14:30Beimnet Abebe:And it's not just oil. It is the diesel prices, the other refined products. and you've also had like a pretty big rise in other commodity prices, right? Like because of El Nino and things like that. Copper, wheat, like soybeans, corn. Beef.
14:47Alex Thorn:Beef is up huge. I don't know about just lately, but I mean beef's up double basically in a couple of years. It's doubled the price.
14:53Beimnet Abebe:I mean so the rate of inflation to the average person does not feel like it's at an acceptable level. No, it doesn't. No, it doesn't. Um, and so, you know, I, I think there's a reasonable case to be made that you should be hiking. Um, at the same time, can he find a way to like hold, but hawkishly hold such that there isn't an outsized reaction in the back end of the curve potentially. Um, but that's a pretty interesting setup, but regardless, I think that the takeaway from all of this is you have the, like, just taking a big step back, like the debasement narrative, the fiscal responsibility, irresponsibility narrative, the structural issues in the economy and debt, they've always been there.
Read the full transcript
15:45Beimnet Abebe:Yeah. Right? At every point since we've been doing this pod, we've always known that we'd get to this point. Yeah. What's different this time is they are so brazen, I think, about manipulating the market that it's so in your face every day. Like Besant yesterday said he is the house now. He intervened in the dollar-yen market. That's right. Right? He's upsizing the best. And you're only like, you know, a couple years into this, less than two years into this administration. And then you've got Warsh as well that seems to have this big credibility issue and we're printing bigger deficits than ever.
16:30Beimnet Abebe:And it's just like – it's just so in your face every day that maybe you should diversify away from the dollar. Maybe the government is pursuing a weak dollar policy. Yeah, or an unsustainable. An unsustainable one. But you also – it's the – and then think about this. like the moment like a week ago like trump threatened to increase tariffs if if the fed didn't cut or if other nations didn't cut so you've got the president telling you to do monetary policy that isn't kind of like with the consensus crowd of like macro folks macro folks and then you've got you know best on on this other side and so it's just so in your face every day that it's really hard to ignore.
17:20Beimnet Abebe:And you couple that with, you know, a big shift in kind of, I don't want to say like anti-US sentiment, but there is a shift to diversifying away from the US. And I don't, it's not anti-US, it's just the way I'd characterize it is just, let's diversify because we're just, we have all our eggs in this one basket, right? There was a headline out the other day. The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund was considering like an$80 billion shift away from treasuries or U.S. assets. I forgot the details. But we're in a trade war with Canada. And by the way, the inflation thing, just remember yesterday, Canada just put on more tariffs on us.
18:10Beimnet Abebe:And so anyway, this is just to add to the whole inflation equation.
18:14Alex Thorn:But Warsh is under a microscope here. It sounds like this. Warshot and him sessions on a microscope. I mean, what Warsh says next week, especially if he does a hawkish pause or a hawkish goal. Which is my baseline. Yeah. That's what most are now – the market wants hikes, right? They're pricing hikes. Some amount. I don't know what it is currently, right? But they probably have learned from his last meeting that he may not do it anyway. And so how he lands the plane on explaining that is more important than probably a lot of meetings recently, right? Absolutely. Others like Jay Powell seemed to be much more predictable.
18:50Alex Thorn:When the market was pricing hikes, he usually delivered hikes. When he was pricing cuts, he usually delivered cuts. Correct.
18:56Beimnet Abebe:Right. And that predictability is what gives folks comfort. And it's like it's still being debased perpetually forever, right?
19:06Alex Thorn:I mean that's how dollar policy works. But at least you knew that you had confidence in the rate. There weren't going to be surprises. Right here it's like, I mean, cut, hike. who knows what's going to have and hold kind of feels um that's i mean this is i think do you think that's played a role i know bitcoin was well oversold and you know long in a cycle and stuff like that but i mean this seems like a perfect juxtaposition for the predictable monetary policy of bitcoin and and similarly gold i mean has that been a big feature in the rally yeah no i
19:39Beimnet Abebe:100 percent um you know i this was just positioning in bitcoin was like a one out of ten and you had a positive catalyst all of a sudden like oh i gotta get my positioning up um and so i i think if you just play this out over the next six months um bitcoin will be higher period gold will be higher if i had to pick which one of those will outperform i will tell you looking at the historical Bitcoin gold chart, Bitcoin should outperform in that environment. And so I have never seen a setup like this where the macro debasement digital gold narrative for Bitcoin, I haven't seen it stronger personally.
20:24Beimnet Abebe:There you go.
20:25Alex Thorn:Well, this was what a roller coaster this year has been because you were a very prominent bear. Now you've been very prominently bullish now, which of course I love. um but um it's been really fascinating because you've really timed i mean look again looking back not necessarily can't know exactly what happens but um you've been a great parameter for where this market is because you you were bearish until the bottom yeah absolutely what's
20:51Beimnet Abebe:different a little different this time though about the the bitcoin rally yeah is that it feels like it's going to happen for the wrong reasons what do you mean like i like bitcoin right i love what it represents you know self-custody defined monetary policy um security privacy yeah uh but if you're telling me we're gonna go up like crazy because our central bankers and our politicians and our government officials are making awful choices it doesn't leave me with a great feeling.
21:34Alex Thorn:Yeah, this is like what Mike's been saying, though, for the years, right? That it's a what's it called? A scorecard on fiscal prudence or something like that. Correct. Yeah. No, and you hate to see it. You hate, but we're not quite there yet. I mean, we're not at like, this is what Mike said, too, and many, I think, have said this. You know, you'd like to see maybe Bitcoin in a million dollars one day, but you'd like that to be gradual. You know, if it shoots to a million like in a short period of time, that means some shit's going sideways. Yeah. All right, we'll leave it there. My friend, Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading.
22:03Alex Thorn:thank you so much thanks for having me let's go now to our guest zach bicorni galaxy research
22:09Zack Pokorny:zach welcome back to galaxy brains what's going on alex it's been a minute it has and uh but you've
22:13Alex Thorn:been on galaxy grid pretty much every week now for what like i think it's been like a year 50 weeks or something it's a lot of episodes that's the show that we put out usually uh tuesday afternoon i think we're recording this on wednesday uh september 9th and probably comes out uh
22:28Zack Pokorny:tomorrow or today i think it's already out actually yeah because uh but it was labor day
22:32Alex Thorn:this week so you didn't record on monday um check that show out it's very good i want to talk about a couple things we're gonna talk about the uh your your new lending report is out from q2 um i guess we'll start there but we're also just for the audience we'll talk about robin hood chain some stock tokens um maybe a little bit of ai was there something else yeah social trading on social trading let's let's start with um with the lending report i guess you know one of the things that i love about that report is it's the only one that aggregates otherwise private numbers mostly private from centralized lenders.
23:02Alex Thorn:Obviously, there's tons of data-driven stuff from on-chain in there, but where is the league table of centralized lending firms this time? What was the total? Were we up or down quarter over quarter?
23:13Zack Pokorny:Excluding Tether, most of them were up across the board marginally, but Tether just dominates so much of the, quote, centralized lending market. I mean, they lost like$2 billion where that's going. Nobody really knows. They didn't necessarily lose it, right?
23:29Alex Thorn:They reduced their loan book. They reduced the loan book. Yeah, I don't know. We don't have a lot of clarity. But we do think they put some of it into DeFi, right?
23:38Zack Pokorny:Yeah, there is speculation that they're just like collecting yield on the tether they own and then just minting new. Pretty nice. And redepositing. I mean, you get the stack yield.
23:48Alex Thorn:Yeah, because they get the yield from the underlying treasuries and then they can also possibly lend it on Aave and earn some yield or something.
23:54Zack Pokorny:Yeah, it's like a possible answer to the question of who is supplying so many stablecoins to DeFi at sub-money market fund rates. Like when you're collecting the money market fund rates and an additional 250, 300 basis points on top of that, you can't afford to be rate insensitive.
24:13Alex Thorn:Just broadly on the report, what really stood out to you on this one or anything new that you added to that report?
24:20Zack Pokorny:I mean, it's just kind of a continuation of a trend that we've noted for a while now. We didn't anticipate market-wide blowups like we saw through the previous cycle. Unsecured lending is essentially eradicated. Not that it doesn't exist, but it's just a tiny portion. And I think even centralized lenders have gotten better at kind of underwriting that risk. And obviously, you can't really borrow unsecured on chain.
24:44Alex Thorn:I think we basically got on Bitcoin a minus 53 % drawdown, all-time high. and um yeah we've seen i know 22 was a bit more violent than that but you know we we didn't see i think we saw what uh was it uh well there's a small otc firm i'm not going to name because i don't want to misname um had a bit of blow up but i think it was for their own isolated and small yeah yeah it wasn't like this that's pretty much it yeah exchanges and lenders i think that's been And is it fair to say as a result from that that this lending market is much more resilient?
25:23Zack Pokorny:Yeah, I think so. And it's like very apparent in the numbers. Like I think we titled this one like taking the stairs down.
25:28Alex Thorn:Yeah.
25:29Zack Pokorny:Like it's just kind of risk gradually rolling off.
25:31Alex Thorn:So we're down a little bit mostly because of Tether. Most of the other ones were up. But it's just also on-chain, right, asset prices themselves impact a lot of this. If you're accounting like lending, you know, wrap Bitcoin on Aave as part of the size of Aave. and Bitcoin loses 50 % of its value.
25:48Zack Pokorny:Yeah, that stuff is like a lot more reflexive. And the second quarter was unique because we had the KelpDAO exploit, which obviously like Aave got caught up in that. So like Aave markets were essentially frozen and people were like running for the exit. So we also had that last quarter. But yeah, the on-chain stuff is just way more reflexive with all this like stablecoin looping, ETH looping, and then you throw in a big exploit that locked like essentially$8 to$10 billion worth of value. yeah um but we've actually seen like a rebound like since bitcoin has jumped from like 60k up to where we are now i think obviously up to like 12 billion dollars in outstanding loans so like still well below the all-time high but what was the all-time high on ave i think it was like 22 or 25 billion so like we're still kind of down in that like 50 percent range yeah um but again like this stuff is like very reflexive and if we could get some some activity flowing back on chain some of these looping strategies become profitable again like i think we can actually climb back
26:45Alex Thorn:towards all-time highs pretty quickly very cool um check out the report galaxy.com slash research i was just i think last week right uh or maybe the week two weeks ago something yeah well we're finally here in the fall so yes the august is a blur to me now we've moved on to the clarity of september um let's talk about social trading this is a huge trend in the trenches but also So I think it's actually, I don't know, Will has been covering it for a long time. But FOMO is this app, FOMO, great name for social trading app. It's getting really big. It's not just like meme coins, right? I mean, people can trade other stuff there too.
27:26Alex Thorn:I mean, you could trade perps, but it's like primarily like meme coins. Oh, it is primarily low caps.
27:31Zack Pokorny:Like ultra low caps. What trends are you seeing in this part of the space? i mean i think like the big noteworthy thing here is we finally found like an instantiation of social trading social crypto that is actually kind of found like real product market we've been beating
27:47Alex Thorn:this drum for so long with like um you know temps at like a web farcaster social web social and blockchains it turns out that the killer app or the first killer app is just trading crypto on
28:00Zack Pokorny:social yeah and just me essentially just like publicize your pnl like that's been basically what it is not like tokenizing like instagram posts which like everybody thought was how this
28:11Alex Thorn:right base was big into that tokenizing yeah with yeah tokenizing content um and then there was like own your data like effectively tokenize your own or or somehow transport or web threeify your x followers so you could bring your audience you bring from that it's kind of like the friend tech hasn't really worked um yeah x seems speaking of which to be heading down the route of social trading a little bit with the embedded price charts now if you do a dollar sign instead of a hashtag like dollar sign btc it will embed the price a chart of bitcoin in your post um and i've even seen uh if you go and click one of those whether it's for it may not for bitcoin that's an i actually should double check i mean they get like the contract address and if you click for stocks though it will suggest that you connect to interactive brokers so i think you're getting close to like just trade on x as well uh which is crazy and x launched um x money um they have like a venmo inside there now basically like a
29:12Zack Pokorny:debit card too yeah it's kind of sick yeah yeah but yeah they're just like a buy button away from kind of so how how big is fomo i mean they're doing billions of dollars in in daily volume Like the numbers are astonishing. Like even when you compare like terminals from like the Trump coin era, which was like nobody ever thought we would get back to that point. Like we're essentially there.
29:38Alex Thorn:You mean the third party terminals through which you trade the things.
29:41Zack Pokorny:Yeah, exactly. Which was like peak hysteria. Like the president of the United States launched a meme coin. Like everybody was going nuts. And we've actually just kind of like gradually trended back towards that level. and I think it speaks to kind of one like the animal spirits that have been like reawakened with things like Robin Hood chain and whatever else but also just like the ease of access to this stuff like you just sign on with an Apple ID and pay through Apple Pay the UX has gotten a lot better I mean it's exceptional this is also something that I think the industry has been like working towards for a while like how do we perfect like the mobile first experience like do the onboarding thing and like the chain abstraction meme and it's like we actually just kind of found an app that does all of the above and it's kind of created this explosive movement but yeah right now it's just like meme coins hopefully we could get towards like perps and things that are higher than like yeah 15 000
30:37Alex Thorn:market cap yeah you know let's let's stick to this topic a little bit too because we mentioned robin hood chain one of the things that i've been saying for a while and why i like working on tokenized galaxy stock um is that i think defy is has great product market fit it's just the assets inside it aren't that good you know some of them are okay but like what if we could put way higher you know what if way higher quality assets like shares in a corporation or fixed income securities or whatever um could make use of these lending and swap protocols and whatever like that'd be very interesting uh robin hood launched their l2 which is what an arbitrum l2 algorithm yeah it's an orbit chain yeah and it is an ethereum l2 they've had it up for a while now but they only just really launched their tokenized stocks and i one of the things we've seen one their audience and their user base is really well primed for this right people might remember during the like uh amc game stop stuff that was like heavily on robin hood and strangely roaring kitty from that era actually looks exactly like vlad tenef i don't know if they've ever been in the same room together they look exactly the same but anyway really ripe for the type of on-chain speculation that you see on solana or you'd seen on base right and we're seeing that now on hood is that what we call it by the way hood i mean that's yeah robin hood chain that the ticker is hood That's what they call it, Robinhood chain?
32:03Alex Thorn:Yeah. It's really not that good a name. Okay.
32:06Zack Pokorny:It works.
32:07Alex Thorn:Yeah, it does. Surely it's working. It's like a very direct name. But I think this chain is the number one gas payer on Ethereum right now, and it's the most widely used by active users in volume of all the Ethereum L2s at this moment as we record.
32:21Zack Pokorny:Yeah, and they're actually doing like crazy fee numbers. I think I saw like five plus million dollars a day, which like we haven't really seen that out of an Ethereum L2 in a while.
32:30Alex Thorn:Yeah, I know.
32:31Zack Pokorny:It's like base at its height. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Which was also during like crazy like AI, like the whole AI meme coin trade.
32:39Alex Thorn:Yeah. You're going to be telling your grandkids, I was there doing the AI meme coin trade.
32:46Zack Pokorny:Yeah, we were there. But I think what's interesting with the tokenized stocks on Robinhood is like what's actually driving demand for it. It's not like people are just like, hey, I want exposure to like NVIDIA. It's like, no, we're going to, like, send a meme coin to 100 million market cap, pair it with a stock, and then force demand. Yeah, what is the pairing pairing with the stock? What is that? Yeah, I mean, it's like you just have an asset, and instead of pairing it in, like, USDC or ETH like most standard pools do, you just pair it in, like –
33:15Alex Thorn:So it's a meme coin that trades in with the base?
33:20Zack Pokorny:It's like a meme coin denominated in the stock. yeah and then they like have like themes for it like ai like artificial inu is paired with nvidia because it's like an ai company there were another there were a few other like creative ones that you probably can't mention but yeah there was yes there was a um a male vitality
33:40Alex Thorn:company that had a meme coin paired with it i think i think our audience can maybe find that one um that was super interesting and and these stock tokens that robin hood has they are of the third-party issued variety right and they're not i don't know how they're if if they are or how they're policing this but they're not available to americans so this is offshore very similar to like x stocks right um and i saw on twitter there was a beef between the ceo of amc the movie theater company that whose stock has been prone to the meme stockery um like gamestop um and vlad where the AMC CEO expressed very, I would say, anger over the fact that Robinhood had tokenized AMC stock.
34:25Alex Thorn:And Vlad said, you know, what exactly is your concern?
34:28Zack Pokorny:He's like, what is the concern?
34:29Alex Thorn:And then the AMC guy wrote back a pretty coherent, I would say, first principles-based list of concerns that are very similar to what issuer-sponsored security token issuers have been saying as criticisms of third-party issue, that it's not fungible with our real stock. It's not a real stock. The shareholders of the token don't get all the rights of a normal shareholder, that there could be many versions of it, that frankly it's rude to do because we as the company choose. Was that a big deal? What do people in crypto think about that that you saw? It was widely shared.
35:06Zack Pokorny:Yeah, I mean I think from a real-world application, the concern is definitely real and could have some negative knock-on effects. But understanding what the motivation of the people are on chain, they're not buying it for economic exposure or having any kind of rights. These people do not care. Surely some do. Maybe some, but I would go as far as saying -
35:34Alex Thorn:What's driving volume is this more mimetic behavior.
35:36Zack Pokorny:Yeah, the whole meme is we stop at board seat. Like they're literally trying to get like controlling interest in some of these companies to literally just be sitting in essentially like a Uniswap pool.
35:48Alex Thorn:That's what's so funny though, because they're not, it's not real stock. I mean, if they, even if the SPV behind a stock gets so much demand because the on-chain version is getting so much demand. And even if that SPV becomes like the majority share, like 51%, there's no guarantee that the holders of the tokens would control anything. If anything, maybe like Robinhood, whoever controls the SPV, could take the board seat. It's just unclear. Yeah. It's unclear.
36:13Zack Pokorny:That's kind of like the meme, though. But it's not stopping them trying. Yeah. It's like 51 % attacking a company. And I don't think it's far-fetched to think that that can't happen.
36:22Alex Thorn:It's like Constitution DAO when they raise money on-chain to buy the Constitution. And then I guess Ken Griffin that time, he rugged by Peabot instead. but you're you're saying that like it's possible that an on-chain cohort of capital could buy a controlling stake in a publicly traded company yeah like where the flywheel of demand for the
36:43Zack Pokorny:meme coin can induce demand for the underlying stock like you get one of these things to run like crazy and it's like not out of the the picture to buy like a 20 30 million dollar market cap company like it's it's very real and very possible that's true if you get like i mean how big meme
36:59Alex Thorn:coins can get like 100 million is not not that rare it's been rare recently but it wasn't historically not rare let alone multi-billion like a dogecoin like it's it is possible yeah
37:10Zack Pokorny:and i think that would literally mark like the second like meme stock wave it was like last time we short squeezed them like this time we literally just buy them out i'm thinking about
37:21Alex Thorn:the time that the doge corners came together to buy the uh to sponsor the jamaican bobsled team like how far we've come if that's now the if the new meta is buy a company um are you gonna make a prediction you think we're gonna see a meme coin community purchase a controlling stake in a
37:37Zack Pokorny:company a public company i'd give it like a 40 chance that's pretty high um very interesting um
37:43Alex Thorn:what what else are you looking at these days that has you interested you know we've talked in the past you and i on this show about um ownership coins and you know a few tarkey is that still uh Is that still going on?
37:55Zack Pokorny:Yeah, no, that stuff is still up and running. I mean, this year was kind of difficult for ICOs and just raising money. Like, on-chain was pretty dead. The market really wasn't conducive to, like, the risk on conditions that would require a lot of this stuff to really be humming. But, no, I mean, I think it's all kind of looking good. We've had a competitor to MetaDAO launch on base, or, like, the token is on base. they're just like an evm at a broad project um so now we're kind of seeing this model being brought to the evm previously it was just siloed to solana so now we kind of have like the crypto like on-chain barbell interesting between the two and then we also had red crypto yeah three weeks ago or
38:40Alex Thorn:whatever yeah right red crypto assets regulation crypto assets it creates a new pathway for capital formation using tokens sort of like a a new fundraising exemption from the securities laws um for non-security crypto tokens to be said again icos like sort of to be sold to the public um you know under conditions and i actually think it's quite a prudent um propose proposed rule making it's there's i i think it i feel that it it at least tries to and it may they may tighten or change in the rulemaking process, but it tries to ratchet up the disclosures and compliance requirements depending on how much you're raising.
39:20Alex Thorn:Do you think that's going to, how's that going to impact Metal X and Umiya and MetaDAO and Futarki and generally speaking, do you think they'll start raising through that?
39:29Zack Pokorny:Yeah, no, I think it could be a big catalyst for them. And when you look at kind of the average size of these projects that are launching off of like the MetaDAOs and the umias they fall under or at that like five million dollar range so like they're kind of like right in that sweet spot where they could benefit like the lowest amount of disclosure required yeah yeah i
39:48Alex Thorn:think above that you need it's not just disclosure you you actually need permission from the commission above that below that it's a disclosure yeah and i even think in like the event like there have been
39:59Zack Pokorny:a few projects off of these launch pads that have raised like eight or ten million dollars or whatever I think even still having the path to like go in and register or or whatever they have to do um is still beneficial because now it can be marketed and you can have like proper ICOs without having to like limit yourself like you can now imagine a world where like Coinbase can get behind an ICO and like make it accessible through their front end to people and all that stuff um so I mean like a an ICO 2.0 boom seems like it it could happen and I think just with everything that's been going on behind the scenes with a lot of these projects like we force regulated ourselves into like having disclosures and investor memos already like blockworks yeah was a huge proponent of this and a lot of projects have actually signed up for it and it's kind of become standard practice for the projects launching off of metadao and umia to also follow that stuff so it's like we're already kind of doing these things so it's cool that you can now take it to like the sec go through like a proper pipeline and then market your stuff to u.s investors and yeah and people but i think like the question of like who the buyer of these tokens still are is an open question
41:07Alex Thorn:well you still we still face the problem of like is it a new blockchain do we really need that what is the actual token for why does it need a token always a good question to ask i've been asking that i used to ask that about a blockchain back in like 2016 people be like oh we're doing this thing we're making you know bloomberg terminal on the blockchain and be like what what did you what why do you need a blockchain do you actually need a blockchain it's actually a great um great website i think it's do you need a blockchain.com it's based on this academic paper from a long time it's a click through flow of like yes yes yes no and it's like oh no your branches uh you need a shared sql database so you don't need a blockchain yeah those problems still exist of course the projects may or may not be good but the fundraising mechanism i always liked i always thought it was disintermediating um and democratizing it's with the proper you know controls and disclosures
41:58Zack Pokorny:and like even beyond that stuff too like with like few tarkey dows and ownership coins like the token actually is kind of equity like yeah so like it mostly becomes a question of like you as a founder do you want to have a liquid value applied to the super early business you're building versus like is a token necessary uh because these things do kind of look equity like in some respects obviously they're not like structured yeah i know but somebody right some of
42:24Alex Thorn:the ownership coins they do not look like governance tokens um they have control like
42:31Zack Pokorny:ownership by control yeah um but like i think the open question is like there's still a massive cohort of big money investors that can't touch tokens for one reason or another can't participate in governance and like if you can't actually have like any say in the future of the project like why would you invest in it? Or you may just be completely barred from owning a token in general, which I think is the big next open question for a lot of these ICOs. But nonetheless, I think it's a big positive in general. And see where it goes from here.
43:07Alex Thorn:Before we wrap, Zach, what's your grand vision? How do you think this is going to play out for blockchains? Do you think we're going to have all these assets tokenized and they're going to become essential financial plumbing? you know is bitcoin going to be the main one that gets huge like i know we we talk a lot you and i you you work a lot on the uh blockchains uh and data around blockchains but you're also a big supporter of bitcoin right i mean what are your thoughts on bitcoin how does it fit in here actually let me ask that as a question because i mean everything we've talked about is like x bitcoin
43:38Zack Pokorny:yeah i mean i think bitcoin is like the ultimate meme coin like it's reached an escape velocity that it just can't be stopped. And I think more and more people are on board with that idea. And like kind of the reignition of the whole debasement trade, all that stuff. But this go around, you have absolute access to it. And that's like kind of what I'm most excited about it. Like this go around. Because like even in 2022, when we were kind of coming out of the bear market or whatever, the ETFs weren't really a thing. People didn't have the mandate. And now I think it's like at a point where like, there's no excuse to not have it.
44:13Zack Pokorny:And some of these asset managers are probably going to be put under pressure like, hey, this thing is ripping. Like, why are you not allowing it? Yeah. Why are you not allowing it? It's kind of in like every app on every brokerage.
44:23Alex Thorn:Like, yeah, it's going to be in a lot of funds. And sorry, back to the original final question. Like, you know, some people say like we're going to tokenize everything. I've been more conservative. I like to look at the percentage of crypto spot volume that trades on chain versus at Galaxy and Coinbase and Binance. It's only about 20%. um so maybe 20 percent of things will trade on blockchains um and but you know does this become boring eventually in your view do the two traditional capital markets and crypto fully
44:54Zack Pokorny:merge i mean on the first point like does this become boring like i don't think so i think like once you start tokenizing this stuff and everything's a smart contract and absolutely programmable like there's going to be possibilities with all this stuff that you can't really conceive of today that we'll just kind of have to wait for it to happen um so like on the will this get boring like no and then we also have like all the ai stuff which like that that's a whole separate category on our toes but yeah when you have an absolutely programmable 24 7 movable whatever asset that you can assign to something that never sleeps and is smart and can do whatever like that's like super exciting um and like how far this actually goes like i mean the 20 analogy is kind of interesting but i think it's like lumpy like you might have like 20 percent of everything in aggregate but maybe like half the stock market gets tokenized and then like fixed income stuff kind of falters yeah um and i think it happens in in steps like right now the whole like trading stocks and all that stuff is kind of like the big logical first thing because like DEXs have kind of proved to work we we just love to trade and gamble and do like degenerate stuff on chain um we being humans right yeah humans yeah um so that's like the logical first place for this to start but as people get comfortable with that it's just like the Trojan horse for the next thing like fixed income yield bearing stuff seems reasonable I mean we've seen like a ton of tokenized like money market funds and whatever um but yeah and i don't know if like the same setups where you can have like an x-stock style setup on like a money market fund exists so there's also like gating regulatory barriers to a lot of the other stuff yeah um obviously not an expert on that but just kind of looking at how the market is unfolding i would i would assume like that is at least at play to some extent um but yeah we're starting with stocks 20 might be the number 50 might be the number i don't know but it's it's going to be lumpy you're going to see more classes of assets tokenized than others and yeah we will see we will see and we think we're
47:10Alex Thorn:going to see more on the tokenized stock front soon because we're still waiting on the sec's innovation exemption so-called which we understand to relate directly to tokenized securities on chain so maybe you get the ico you got the ico 2.0 you get the tokenized stocks like blessed in the U.S. because again all these tokenized stocks we're talking about are for ex-US today but maybe with the U.S. you get some stuff and that's just maybe the start of the next roller coaster for this I don't know knock on wood hopefully upcoming bull market in digital assets Zach McCorney from Galaxy Research as always thank you so much for sharing your thoughts
47:50Zack Pokorny:yep thanks for having me
47:56Alex Thorn:Thank you for listening to Galaxy Brains, the weekly podcast from Galaxy Research. I'm Alex Thorne, head of firmwide research at Galaxy. Follow me on X at Intangible Coins. Follow Galaxy Research on X at GLXY Research. Read our written reports at galaxy.com slash research. And don't forget, if you like Galaxy Brains, to like and subscribe on your favorite podcast platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and more. We'll see you next time. Thank you.
From the publisher
Alex Thorn talks with Zack Pokorny (Galaxy Research) about Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks, layer 2 networks, social trading like FOMO, and much more. Alex also talks with Beimnet Abebe (Galaxy Trading) about the Federal Reserve, rates, equities, and more.
Participants, along with Galaxy Digital, hold a financial interest in Bitcoin (BTC). Galaxy regularly engages in buying and selling BTC, including hedging transactions, for its own proprietary accounts and on behalf of its counterparties. Galaxy also provides services to vehicles that invest in BTC. If the value of such assets increases, those vehicles may benefit, and Galaxy’s service fees may increase accordingly. The valuation in this communication is based on technical, fundamental, and market analysis and not on any formal valuation method. For more information, please refer to Galaxy’s public filings and statements. Cryptocurrencies, including BTC, are inherently volatile and risky and ultimate market movements may not align with this statement.
For additional risks related to digital assets, please refer to the risk factors contained in filings Galaxy Digital Inc. makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) from time to time, including its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, available at www.sec.gov.


