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Generating Alpha Podcast: Episode 22 - Tully Friedman
Episode Overview In this episode, host Dionner interviews Tully Friedman, a co-founder of Hellman & Friedman and a significant figure in private equity. This marks Tully's first-ever podcast appearance, where he shares insights from his extensive career in finance, his upbringing, and the foundational principles that guided his professional journey.
Key Themes and Discussions
Tully's Background and Upbringing
- Immigrant Roots: Tully shares his family's immigration story from the Pale of Settlement in Russia to the U.S. and emphasizes the American dream narrative.
- Education: Attended Stanford University and Harvard Law School. He attributes his legal education to enhancing his analytical thinking.
Career Path
- Early Career: Began at Salomon Brothers during its peak in the 1970s, transitioning from law to investment banking.
- Founding Hellman & Friedman: Partnered with Warren Hellman to establish Hellman & Friedman, focusing on values-driven investments.
Investment Philosophy
- Approach to Investment:
- Emphasizes long-term value and ethical considerations over short-term gains.
- Believes in the importance of choosing partners with high character and judgment.
- Stresses the necessity of operational improvements rather than just seeking cheap investments.
Leadership and Management
- Discusses the significance of evaluating leadership teams and how to identify quality management.
- Shares insights into the commonality of management turnover in acquired companies and how to navigate that.
Defining a Good Investment
- Tully describes a good investment not solely by financial metrics (IRR) but by the quality of the partnership and the intrinsic value of the business.
- Highlights the importance of understanding the competitive advantage of businesses.
Key Lessons and Advice
- On Risk and Judgment: Tully speaks about the importance of risk tolerance, recognizing opportunities, and learning from mistakes.
- General vs. Specialized Knowledge: Advocates for a broad, liberal education over early specialization, suggesting that diverse experiences contribute to better decision-making in investments.
- Understanding People: Emphasizes that successful investing is as much about understanding human behavior as it is about financial metrics.
Concerns for the Future
- Geopolitical Risks: Expresses worry over the current state of global stability and the implications for investment strategies.
- Economic Trends: Discusses the end of a "golden age" in finance characterized by cheap money and rising asset prices, suggesting a more cautious approach moving forward.
Conclusion Tully Friedman's insights provide a multifaceted view of private equity, emphasizing the blend of ethical leadership, rigorous investment philosophies, and the critical role of human connections in business success. His experiences and reflections offer timeless lessons for both budding investors and seasoned professionals alike.
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Additional Notes
- Recommended Reading: Tully suggests reading biographies, histories, and novels to better understand human motivations and behaviors, rather than focusing solely on business literature.
- Final Thoughts: Tully encourages young professionals to seek mentors and learn from diverse experiences, reinforcing that not every path needs to lead directly to a specific career goal.
In summary, this episode encapsulates Tully's journey as a seasoned investor, offering invaluable insights into the principles that guide successful investing and leadership in the complex world of finance.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This week on the podcast, I dionner being joined by none other than Tully Friedman, an iconic figure in the world of private equity and someone whose impact on the industry spans the world of private. decades. Tully co-founded Hellman and Friedman, one of the largest private equity firms in the world with over$115 billion in assets under management, and later co-founded Friedman, Fleischer, and Lowe, where he's led investments in a range of middle market companies with a strategic long-term approach. Before his time in private equity, Tully was a key player at Salomon Brothers during its heyday in the 1970s, a formative period that gave him a front row seat to the evolution of modern Wall Street.
0:35He earned his JD from Harvard Law School and has brought a sharp legal mind and thoughtful leadership style to everything he's built. In his first ever podcast appearance and one of his rare public speaking appearances, we talk about the building blocks of his career from his early days on Wall Street to founding two firms, his thoughts on dealmaking, leadership, and talent, and the legacy of his longtime partner, Warren Hellman. Tully also shares timeless lessons from decades in finance, his views on the future of the industry, and the advice you'd give to a 15-year-old today. I really enjoyed making this rare interview, and I hope you guys enjoy this too.
1:10If you haven't already, please follow our Spotify or subscribe to our YouTube. I'm really trying to get this viewership up as much as possible. And if you've enjoyed this episode, I urge you to share it to your friends, family, or anyone who you think might be interested. Thank you, and I hope you enjoy. Thank you, Tully, for joining me. I really appreciate it. Welcome to the podcast. Thank you for inviting me. It's a distinguished company. you've kind of herded together somehow. Thank you. I appreciate it. Yeah, somehow. Impressive feat, I have to say. Thank you. So I'd like to start where I usually do, going all the way back to your upbringing, your childhood.
1:44Can you kind of describe your background for me, your childhood and your upbringing? And also tell me about the steps that eventually led to you going to Stanford. Sure. So I consider myself very lucky and our family very lucky. It's a classic American immigration story where my father came here in 1918 from what was known as the Pale of Settlement in Russia. Anyone who stayed behind was slaughtered, either by the Germans, the Poles, or the Russians. And his mother dragged him and his siblings across Europe after the World War I. I can't even imagine what that was like. got them to the United States.
2:22And they had a very, very hard life. He spoke no English when he got here. And I actually realized much later in life when I listened to an oral history he did that his English was too perfect. So it's like those novels where the Russian sleepers are dropped into America after they've been trained in an American village in the Gulag and they get cut out because they don't speak colloquial English. That was his English. And the family got here, they all went to work immediately. He somehow got himself through college and law school, became an adult just in time for the depression. And at one point he said to me, the depression was the happiest day of his life because then everybody was poor.
3:06He worked hard. He met my mother who has similar background. They got married. They raised a family that brought us to Los Angeles. And I was raised by very loving parents who sort of sacrificed everything for their children in very good public schools, educated in very good public schools in Los Angeles, and a very lucky guy. It's an incredible story. I haven't heard a lot of those on the podcast. It's pretty typical. I mean, it's a typical American immigration story. And in the millions, maybe more people have the same story. So in one sense, it's not unique and not special. On the other, in another sense, it's, it's all about American and American opportunity.
3:48So I was raised as a patriot, I have to say. You got your Juris Doctor at Harvard, went to law school at Harvard, if I'm correct. Yeah. How did your time at law school impact the way you think today? And how has it applied itself throughout your career? Yeah. So just to go back a little, I went to Stanford. My father, who after his experiences coming here and growing up was really very risk averse and really pretty scared his whole life, was terrified that I didn't just go down the road to UCLA. But I went off to Stanford. It worked. I went to law school. And I think what I really got out of law school mainly was learning how to think because I sort of got along on rote memory in college and I wasn't bad at it.
4:36But they beat you into really thinking about problems in law school. I left law school, I think, with some ability to think and analyze. And that served me well in my whole life, I think. And how have you seen the differences between your kind of father's attitude? You said he was who's much more conservative and risk-averse in years now. Do you think you're more like him, or do you think you've kind of taken an opposite view in terms of risk? No, I think it's that classic case where the kid reacts to the parents' culture, if you will, and goes the other way. I have a trope for risk. It's not crazy risk, but there have been important junctures in my life where I've taken risks that would have been unimaginable to him.
5:21I went from law school. I worked in a senatorial campaign. I worked for Sidley and Austin, which was one of the great law firms in Chicago, and decided after three years, I would rather do something else. And I left Sidley. He said nothing. I can't imagine what he was thinking, because it was beyond his ken that he or someone in his family would work for a firm like that. In fact, it wasn't possible when he was growing up. And I left that all behind. And so I would say I have a streak of risk tolerance that has followed me through my career. After that, you ended up at Salmon Brothers during the 70s.
6:03How was the firm special at that time in terms of both talent and culture? And what did you take away from that experience? Well, so basically I practiced law for three years and we were doing public offerings and bond indentures and we'd go to the printer and we'd print up the stuff for the SEC. And then the group would have a steak dinner and then the investment bankers, the underwriters, go home and the lawyers would stay there all night and package up the filing package and get it off to the SEC. And finally it occurred to me that maybe I should figure out what those guys did. and in those days it was guys there weren't any women in the profession and decided I wanted to go into the investment banking business and someone suggested I talk to someone at Solomon because they were sort of a nothing third-tier bond firm where there was a guy there named John Goodfriend who had this vision that they could integrate backwards and because they were so good at selling bonds maybe underwrite them effectively and create a much more fundamental business and And just as has been the case, pretty much every time I've made one of these bets, I like John.
7:10The firm was not particularly enticing. I was talking to some other more established firms, but I made a bet on John. And John is the person that dragged the firm into prominence in the next 10 years and turned it into the major firm it was. And it was a good bet. So that was what I saw there. And it was a zoo. It was a bunch of people, mostly traders and salesmen, that if they hadn't come to Wall Street would have been bookmakers or bakers or things like that. They'd never seen anyone like me and didn't know what to do with me. And I was terrified the whole time the first few months. But, you know, it worked out.
7:49And what was it like being there during the time where it just got bigger and bigger? What did you what did you learn from? Well, I had a deal with John that if they ever wanted to start a bank on the West Coast, I could do it. And by God, two years later, he sent me out there in my late 20s. I had a little metal desk in the corner of a sales office with a directory of California companies. And I started at the A's. And we slogged it out and added some people. And I had a wonderful guy named Bob Matchlaw who went on to run the investment bank at Morgan Stanley. He was one of the real giants of the business.
8:23But he was a kid that I fortunately was able to lure into our little corner of the world. and the firm was on a real trajectory and we worked hard and we did a fair amount of business we ultimately built a big west coast business i became a partner uh but that sort of trading sales sharp elbowed culture never really left it and um you learn to tolerate it wasn't it was not a natural arena for me and i think what saved me was i was 3 000 miles away from the trading floor in New York. I think if I'd been there, they would have cut me to pieces. So you meet Warren Hellman, and in 1984, you start Hellman and Friedman.
9:08Can you just take me through, give me a bit of background on how you meet Warren? What led to you guys? What was the kind of founding ideas? Sure. So I met him first, maybe 10 years before we started the firm, when I was trying to get into the business, maybe 12 years. And I was talking to one of his young partners at Lehman and going through the place. And he said, well, you got to meet Warren. Warren was a man, a 37, 38-year-old president of the firm and a wunderkind on Wall Street. And he said, oh, here he comes. He's coming down the hall. Warren, I'd like you to meet Tully Friedman. Warren comes zipping past.
9:42His nickname in those days was the Hurricane. He says, hi, bye. And that's when I met Warren. And that was the sum total of our interaction. Twelve years later, I get a call from the CEO of Crown Zellerbach Company, which is a, maybe 10 years later, which is a client of ours, big forest products company. Warren Hellman's moved back to California and Lehman has lent him to them as their interim CFO. What do I think? I said, how's that going to work? They're competitors. And his answer was, why don't you go ask Warren? So I went up to see Warren and we had this conversation. He basically said, try me.
10:23And Crown Zellerbach was in financial trouble. They had issued too much debt to build greenfield paper mills and got in a lot of trouble. and he and I spent the next two years fixing it and working as partners and kind of holding off our respective partners in the two firms to do exactly what we thought they should do and regardless of who got to do it and at the end of that time we'd gotten pretty friendly and we were having lunch and he said to me you know um I can always tell when guys are going to leave the business you're going to leave the business aren't you and I said yeah I've got I've got a client that wants to start a little deal for him.
10:59And I like him and I think it's time for me to do something like that. And he said, well, I'd like to do that. I'd like to leave Lehman again. Can I office with you? And I said, yeah, sure. I'd love that. And let me talk to Toby. So three months later, I was still talking to my partner. And I went back to Warren. I said, you know, Warren, I don't think this is going to happen, but I'd kind of rather do this with you. And he said, great. so if I bring a deal in that's great so he said we'll call the firm Friedman and Hellman and I said Orrin look you're 10 years older than I am you've been president of Lehman Brothers you're kind of famous and I'm not stupid let's call it Hellman and Friedman so that was the start of the firm and from what I've listened to so far I can already tell you're an incredible storyteller So I'd like to pose this question to hopefully get maybe some stories or some anecdotes out of it.
12:01But what were the early deals or transactions during your time at Hellman & Friedman that helped shape the firm's approach? And how would you describe the firm's original approach? Well, of course, we didn't have one. And we didn't theorize about it a whole lot. I would say that someone on the outside who looked at it would say these are two people that, while they're stylistically very different, He was a sort of wild extrovert, and I was pretty introverted and pretty quiet. But we really had the same value system. We cared about people. We wanted to be good partners and good advisors. We were willing to take long-term views.
12:40And we ultimately really saw the world the same way. And he had a lot of capital. I had a little because they had sold Solomon. And what we found is no one cared about our capital, but everyone cared about getting our advice. So we established a little advisory business, and we ended up with a handful of clients we would have killed for in either of our prior firms. Levi Strauss, American President Lines. We turned down Chevron because we were afraid that we couldn't just deal with the top two people, their treasury department with Nibala's to death, and so on. And we really couldn't get anyone to let us invest money.
13:18That changed over time. and I was involved with Stanford and helping them on our South African investments, got to know the treasurer. And there were some firms, KKR had just gotten going and a few other firms. And one day I said to him, you know, we might raise a fund. Would you ever be interested? And I said, yeah, yeah, I would do that. So he offered to lead a$100 million fundraise for us. And I said, it's not going to be venture deals. It's not going to be a startup. It's just going to be plain old good deals. He said, fine, we don't have anything like that. And we ended up raising$300 million.
13:57And we were off to the races. And we were really trying to find good businesses led by people we wanted to really be partners with. Unusually, we didn't care if we had control or not with the right people. That was very differentiated. I don't think anyone else was doing that at that point in this sort of narrow, small cottage industry, if you will. And we got going. We raised that fund. We raised two more. And we ultimately raised and deployed something over$2 billion in capital while I was there, which in those days was a lot of money.
14:37And after Hellman and Friedman, you founded Friedman, Fleischer and Lowe in 1997. to focus on what has been described as smaller, more middle market businesses with an increased focus on small subsectors within industries. What motivated the shift to investing in smaller, more kind of niche businesses? That's sort of the way the current leadership sees the firm and describes it. I would say that it was pretty clear to me that as more and more capital came into the business, I mean, let's go back a little. This whole sector was part of something called alternative assets. So you had venture, you had what was called buyouts in those days, now called private equity.
15:23You had hedge funds coming along. Everyone was trying to find these little niches of value that weren't very exploited. And the real avatar of that was David Swenson at Yale, who started backing firms like that. He was among our first investors. And pretty much by the time I started FFL, a lot of that had been competed away. And what was pretty clear was you had to really make an operating improvement in the companies to get full value out of the deals. You no longer could find, if you will, cheap investments, buy them, leverage them, and sell them on. So that was really the main motivation. because we were again back raising a smaller fund,$300 million, we weren't going to do really large deals.
16:11We had done some major deals, including Levi Strauss in the prior firm, which was the largest buyout ever done to that day. And so of necessity, we were doing smaller, call it middle market deals. There's always been this kind of fantasy that if you do these deals, they're less competitive. I never found that to be the case. There's just no refuge. There's just too much money, too many smart people trying to do stuff. So you simply have to survive in a tough world. And there aren't any neighborhoods you can go that aren't like that in my view. There haven't been ever since the earliest days. I find that to be an interesting point because I've spoken to some people that have said that, well, if you're going into a – if you're investing as a large private equity shop, like a KKR, like a Blackstone, there's a lot of these smaller deals that can't move the needle.
17:07And a lot of people have shifted towards it. But I find that point very interesting. It's contrary to a lot of what I've heard. And I'd love to explore a little bit later. Well, let me just say, I think that's just wrong. And it's something the consultants deal in. I see that in some nonprofits I've involved in. I just think that's wrong. I just think it's a highly developed, highly competitive,
17:32set of asset classes, if you will, or asset class where a tremendous amount of equity capital and leverage has gone into it. And it's just not as interesting as it used to be. Yeah. And size doesn't get there. It just doesn't do it for you. I'd love to touch a little bit on culture because you touched on the culture at Salman Brothers. So what cultural traits at both Hellman and Friedman and Friedman, Fleischer and Lowe are non-negotiable for you, even if they come into the expense of short-term returns? Because I've spoken to a lot of people that have talked on not getting maybe a star trader who might be toxic and get you a lot of money, but focus on more long-term delay the gratification.
18:14So I'd love to hear your kind of thoughts on that. Yeah, I'm not sure I operate on that, Victor. I would say that in terms of my life, I really believe that there's a sort of a karma and everything. And I don't believe you can create monuments during your life. So I have a lot of friends that have done pretty well that donate buildings to things and put their names on. And I don't think that really gets you anything. And I think your real monuments are in the hearts and minds of the people you interact with. And that extends to how you behave in business. That doesn't mean, you know, you're businesslike.
18:51I mean, you're commercial, but you don't sacrifice character. You don't sacrifice principles. And that includes the people within the firm. So we always tried to hire the best people we could get. We wanted people of high character. We wanted people who didn't cut corners. The two leaders of Hellman and Friedman today are people that I helped hire. And I was interested in what they had to say from the first day they were in the firm. So it had nothing to do with rank, but the fact that these were Very high quality people, very smart, great judgment and people you wanted to spend time with. So that's sort of the basis for everything for me.
19:29And it certainly extended into our business activities. You know, we were commercial, we were competitive, we wanted to make money. We kept ramping the size of the firm and the funds, but we weren't about to sacrifice principle and behave in a way that we thought was wrong. in every person i've talked to that's a lot of business that has some kind of enterprise value i've heard that common theme and i found it and i found it very important but what i'd love to do right now is kind of get a little bit deeper into the kind of deal making investment side of it so i got asked this question i mentioned to someone i'm interviewing you and you haven't done a lot of public appearances and he asked me um he told me that i can ask he'd love to hear this question and I would also love to hear this question.
20:17Well, I'm going to blame you for it, but go ahead. Is deal-making talent innate or learned? Okay.
20:25I'm not sure I know what deal-making means because Donald Trump was a deal-maker. I'm not sure his deal-making and talent belong in the same sentence. So I prefer to think about investment talent. Just making deals in these firms doesn't get you very far. And people can make their own conclusions about the current president. But so I think about investment talent. So let's talk about in terms of investment talent. I have met very few really good investors in my life. Probably you can count them on two or three hands. And it's an innate talent. It can be developed. It can be enhanced. it must be enhanced through experience, but it's a gift.
21:19And what you can do in these firms and these institutions is train a whole bunch of people in process. So let's think about how a deal happens in one of these firms, almost regardless of size. You come across it somehow, ideally it's proprietary, but that's pretty rare these days. It's a competitive process, You look at X company. You have bright young people that are tremendous analysts that run models. They do diligence. My partner, Spencer Fleischer at FFL, used to say to our people, look, let's not forget that we buy companies, not models. That's pretty profound, if you think about it. And I was always the worst analyst in our firms because I was trained as a lawyer.
22:05I wasn't trained as a financial professional. I kind of learned how to read the stuff. I'm not sure I could ever create a model to save my life. But what would happen is they would bring results of all that work and analysis to senior partners. And we'd look at it. And that's where our work began. And the questions we were asking ourselves was, are they right? Are these the kinds of businesses we think we want to be in? Do they have differentiated advantages? You know, the kind of stuff Buffett talks about and is right about in a lot of ways. But then do we want to be in business with these people?
22:41And that is both a personal and a business question. And that's where I got very, very active. And even during COVID, I would ask them either to have the management come out or at least we do a very lengthy Zoom call. And that's kind of where I earned my living. So to me, that is the most important part of the equation. And I just think it's innate. It's an art. And you make a lot of mistakes, but I don't think you can teach them. And as someone who focuses on management, what does a quality management team look like and how common is a quality management team? Well, pretty uncommon. In our business, I'm told that almost 60 % of the CEOs of companies that people buy are changed out in the first two or three years.
23:28Our record is much better because it was only 50%. percent. And we kind of knew half of those were going to go. So as we did the deal, we would say to ourselves, well, you know, Amir is okay, but maybe he's the guy we don't want to keep around very long. Is there someone else in management or someone else we know we could put on the board to fill that spot if we're right about this? But half of them we didn't know we're going to change job. So that's really important. And by the way, one of the prices people have paid during the last few years when there's been this frenzy of dealmaking and people have less and less time to study the prospects and their preemptive processes, people are spending less and less time with management.
24:19And I think that's a real shortfall. I think that's a real problem. that may correct itself with a lot of other things now. So you're really looking for very special people, at least in the senior management, people that are straight, people that will be good partners. And that's a very hard thing to tickle out. And as I said, we got it wrong half the time. Over the course of your career, what do you see as the greatest investment you've ever made? It doesn't have to be a business investment, but it could be something else. Oh, well, the arc of my career, and I've had basically five so-called careers since I got out of school, always has been tied to a person.
25:05So I described my going to Solomon because I was very taken with John Goodfrey. I made a bet on John. There's been one of those in every one. Warren would be another. Spencer Fleischer would be another in FFL. fell. I was very lucky to meet my wife, Elise, 30 years ago. And we were engaged in three weeks. That's a really crazy thing to do, particularly as careful as I am. But it's not unlike the way I've done deals in the past, where I'm very careful. And one day there's a switch flips and you say, yeah, we're going to do this. So she is just the light of my life. And I don't know if that's an investment with a small I or a big I, but it's been very important to me.
25:49So I can name deals. And certainly the Levi deal was important because it put us on the map. It was a great deal financially. The Haas's had faith in us. The older families were, I'm not sure they should have because we didn't have any real experience in doing buyouts. in the first fund at FFL, we did Tempur-Pedic. That was a$300 million fund that we returned a billion dollars of profit on. And Tempur-Pedic was a meaningful part of that. And it was very risky, very hard to decide to do it. So these have occurred along the way. But I think it's more the people. Yeah. And the question I just asked you was about...
26:31We had a few really terrible ones, too. So really bad ones where we essentially did dumb things. But I'd rather not dwell on that unless you really want me to. No. No need to dwell on it. So I asked you the last question about the greatest investments you've ever made. But my next question is, how do you personally define a good investment other than the obvious, like IRR? And has that definition changed for you over the course of your career? what you're trying to line up well let me take that last and it's more a question of how the firms function so when we started we were generalists we kind of did everything so the first big thing we did was an apparel business which is you know not where you choose to start out happened to be a fantastic brand we did mattresses we did health care things we did shipping, which we kind of came out all right on, but in hindsight, maybe you shouldn't do shipping deals with capital intensive.
27:32And then as the business evolved and got more competitive, and as essentially I got into the second firm, and I think Helman and Friedman had to do this too, you had to specialize more and more. That was one of the ways you dealt with the competition. So you knew more and more about narrower and narrower things. And that's just where the business went. I like being a generalist. Walking into the office every week and dealing with something new, maybe learning about a new business was wonderful. But the unifying things I would say are, number one, the people you're in business with, competence, character, willingness to partner, take criticism, give criticism.
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28:19You want businesses that are good businesses, which means they have competitive advantages. You don't like commodity businesses very much. You would like to see a path to a lot of growth. You'd like them today, I think you'd like them to be in businesses where the growth will be rewarded. That's not a trivial thing because if you think about the S &P 500 and where the big multiples are and where they're not, someone talks about the S &P 493, which hasn't done all that much, right? It doesn't have big multiples. So you have to have that in mind. And it's pretty obvious stuff. It can be, quote, taught in business school.
29:02You can listen to the leaders of the investment business and you can learn about that stuff. But it's not sufficient. Just not sufficient. Yeah, the real life experience is what really gets you there. Yeah, which essentially, I'm not even sure I can articulate what you learn from it. And the other thing, quite honestly, is I've been really lucky. So I have a long relationship with Arthur Brooks, if you know who he is. I hired him to run this think tank that I was chairman of. He's become a very prominent public speaker. And he said to me one day, well, you know, you've done a lot. And I said, well, Arthur, I've been very lucky.
29:43And he's a social scientist. And he said, you know, there's research on that. I said, really? He said, yeah, we've studied lucky people and there are two characteristics. I said, what are they? He said, well, they're better at recognizing opportunity than most people. And they have more tolerance for risk. There you are. So how many people have those characteristics, but those people either get lucky or get really unlucky, I guess, in some case? Yeah, you have to kind of give yourself the opportunity to be lucky. You can't shut down all the doors or you can't say no to everything because luck appears when you give yourself opportunity.
30:22It's a classic. Luck happens to the prepared mind and all that. But it's the fact that there's a convergence of seeing things maybe other people won't see and then having the tolerance for risk, which I think eliminates most people and maybe should. It's a dangerous world. I'd love to move on a little bit to kind of some, I don't know if I'd call it advice, but some insights and then moving into advice. You've been in the industry for many market cycles. You've described it. I remember I read something about you that came out 10 years ago. And at that point you described you've been in four or five market cycles.
31:01At this point, I would say five or six or six or seven. What fundamental views or principles have remained unchanged for you throughout your entire career? Well, you have to be very much mindful of bubbles and fads. And let's just take the last 10 years. There has been a real bubble in financial assets and markets driven by both fiscal and monetary policy. And what compounds that, and don't take this personally, but the markets are now populated largely with people who have never suffered the reverse. and that's why you get these dead cat bounces, I think. So no one understands that stuff can go down.
31:46I mean, they may now as opposed to a year ago. But all the market participants have lived in a golden age. And you really have to have that in mind. And I would guess that's cost me a lot in terms of personal returns the last 10 years, but I've slept better. but uh you really have to be very very mindful of risk and not get too taken away with these periods of euphoria and bubbles and then you have to think about how you're going to manage risk in all these periods so knowing history is kind of worthwhile number one understanding a little about the human beings is a good thing. I talked to a group of professionals in the mid-30s, very successful professionals, a couple of years ago.
32:40I don't particularly like giving speeches, but I do like doing Q &A. And I said, well, ask me some questions. And the first question was, what business books do you read? And my reaction was, darn, I don't read business books. What can to say to these people? And what I said was, which was sincere, well, I talked about how I approached investing, what I thought I was, where I made a contribution, and it was evaluating people. And I said, so I read books. I don't read business books. I read books that tell me more about the humans. I read histories. I read biographies. I read novels, some novels.
33:17And I think the more you understand people in and out of these companies, the better off you are, You're also better off in your own life, I think. So that's really, to me, very fundamental. I think what happens in a lot of these big investment businesses today is that there's more process than anything else. And the system is the solution. So you have groups of people that perform these processes, diligence, modeling, what have you, risk analysis, and they're presided over by one or more people that have the responsibility for making investment decisions. I'm not sure that system is good enough and can address the concerns I have.
33:58In fact, I'm pretty sure it's not in many cases. so it has to do with uh again understanding the people you're dealing with in addition to sort of the obvious thing about the industry the companies the businesses that's the hardest part yeah i've kind of seen that common theme across all my podcasts the most of the people i've spoken to both inside and outside of this medium it just all boils down to people, people, people. Yeah, it does. Even in this age where it's technology, AI, all that, it's still just purely focused on people. It's a people business in the end. Well, look at the avatars of technology.
34:38They have the people that are prominent and how they conduct themselves in public. Yeah. And I don't know, but some of them seem to me not to be people you really want to be a harness with. And there must be others you just love to be a harness with, right? And you talked a little bit about looking back, looking back at history, but I'm wondering, looking forward, what trends or tailwinds are you most excited about in the next five or 10 years, if you're excited about anything? How about scared? I could be scared. You can be scared. Because I run scared. It's my father's heritage. I mean, I can overcome the fear and do stuff, but I run scared.
35:15I think we've lived, this is going to be a little bit longer answer you probably want. I think we've lived in a golden age. I've been very, very lucky to live in the golden age the last 70 plus years, both in terms of our country and our business environment and in the world. And to take the latter first, that's over. So we are now, unfortunately, in a time of great geopolitical risk. I don't think anyone's going to argue about that. We've had, I think, a serious deterioration of leadership in this country and almost every institution. there's been a there's been a market drop in confidence when you look at poll ratings for everything just any arena you look at the supreme court congress business military and i think quite honestly it's because there's been a decline in leadership and i have a whole theory about why that's happened i won't bore you with it right now and so we are beyond this golden age and then And geopolitically, the so-called Pax Americana kind of worked.
36:20And, you know, there were shortfalls and there were problems. But overall, it was an unprecedented period of peace for more people in the world than ever before. More people were lifted out of poverty. I think that's over. And nothing guarantees the continuation of the American project. I mean, as you may know, Franklin left the Constitutional Convention and a woman said, what do we have, Dr. Franklin? And he said, a republic, madam, if you can keep it. And that's the issue. So I'm very concerned about the next few years. We have kids. I'm concerned about them. And I think that the era of cheap money, massive amounts of equity flowing into all these niches is over.
37:09STEMI returns, lower inflation. we've now financed and have to continue supporting somehow a massive welfare state where we also have to revive our defense capability. I don't think the money exists to do both.
37:29And I'm very concerned about the next few years ahead. And if I were younger, I'd be doing things that would be very conservative in the face of it. not the answer you're looking for was invest in bitcoin or whatever i mean no it's it's still extremely insightful i might i might actually prefer that because it's it's what to be you know what to be wary about what to be careful about um but on a slightly lighter note this is one question i ask every single one of my guests at the end i'm trying to compare and contrast, but also to get insight from everyone. If you were to give one piece of advice to a 15 year old today, whether it's career, life advice, any kind of advice, what would it be?
38:19Yeah. I guess the direct answer is I don't think I have any advice to give to a 15 year old, which is you. I have to say, I'm not sure you need advice given the way you function today. I have advice I give to older people, kids that are coming out of professional school or college college and i'd love to hear that yeah well you can tuck this away and it's basically um when you're taking your first job find the most important the most um find the person you can work for you're going to learn the most from because it won't be your last job so that's what you look for uh and people have done that and i think it's served them very well um the other piece of advice I guess I'd give you, I suppose you're a STEM guy, get as broad an education as possible.
39:11I think this whole idea that everything's technology, everything is siloed, and, you know, find one thing and put 10 ,000 hours in it is wrong. I think the classical idea of having a broad liberal education is right, because it serves you well, both in your own career and life, and as a citizen and as a partner in a family. And you can always narrow in and specialize anytime you want. You can flip that switch. But I wouldn't spend my early years fiercely going down a rabbit hole of specialization. I think that's a mistake. And I think that's been the problem with our educational system. So get educated in the classical sense is what I would say.
39:59if there's one yeah if there's one educational insight i've i'd to pull from kind of a common theme in terms of education i'd to pull from all my time speaking to people on the podcast and outside of it it would be get a broad education get a maybe get a liberal arts education just try to learn as much as you can um and try to do even like things like experiences that might not if you want to pick out something that you want to do i'm sorry you're breaking do something Do experiences that maybe might not... Yeah, yeah. If there's like a job you're focused on or something like that that you're focused on, do experiences that might not, you don't see directly aiding you in them, but could be, might be valuable later in life.
40:37Nothing has to, not everything has to lead to that one thing you have to do. Yeah, I stumbled into it. My first job out of law school was working for a senatorial campaign in Chicago for a Republican, which sounds demented. I learned more stuff in that year, met more people I wouldn't meet otherwise. It was really a good education in a lot of areas. And, you know, there's this classical idea of virtue and classical education and being virtuous. And I think there's something to it. And I think that's what's lacking in this country today. And it's lacking in our leadership. And I think it's up to you guys to kind of recover that.
41:15And I think it will make a difference. Well, I'll leave it at that. thank you totally for joining me it's a pleasure it was incredible conversation i enjoyed it and i hope you did too thank you for coming on good luck thank you very much for inviting me
From the publisher
In this episode, I sat down with Tully Friedman—one of the true pioneers of private equity—for his first-ever podcast appearance. Tully co-founded Hellman & Friedman, a firm that helped define the modern buyout era, and later launched Friedman, Fleischer & Lowe, where he’s led investments in middle-market businesses with a highly focused and values-driven approach. Before that, he made his mark at Salomon Brothers during the firm’s golden age in the 1970s, gaining an early education in high-stakes finance at one of Wall Street’s most legendary institutions.
Over the course of our conversation, Tully shares how his early life and legal training shaped his worldview, the principles behind building two successful investment firms, and how he evaluates leadership and long-term value. We also discuss his partnership with the late Warren Hellman, his definition of a “great investment,” and the non-negotiable values he’s never sacrificed for returns.
This episode is full of timeless lessons on judgment, talent, integrity, and scale—told by someone who has quietly influenced generations of investors behind the scenes.
If you have not already, I urge you to subscribe or follow the podcast and share it if you enjoyed this conversation.
