Trump moves to dismantle a ‘global mothership’ of climate research

0:00Support for Here and Now Any Time comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software for technical computing and model-based design. MathWorks, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering. in science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

0:24Critical thinking is a serious issue right now. And the less science we have, the more misinformation rushes in to fill the void. The conservative crusade against supposedly woke science could make it harder to forecast extreme weather.

0:52It's Thursday, December 18th, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR. I'm Chris Bentley.

1:02Today on the show, China is building up its military muscle, and the U.S. is figuring out what to do about it. It's aggressively building up its nuclear weapons. It's now got three functioning aircraft carriers. It's got hypersonic missiles. It's going gangbusters on building up its military, though I want to add the military's got a lot of problems too with corruption. China, Taiwan, Trump, Xi Jinping, and semiconductors. We'll get to all that in about five minutes. But first, one of the world's leading hubs for climate science and weather forecasting is on the chopping block. The National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado is home to hundreds of meteorologists and scientists studying climate and weather.

1:50But the White House Office of Management and Budget Director, Russ Vogt, called it, quote, one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country. And he wants to break it up. That would be a major blow to research and practical applications of science that affect hundreds of millions of people, says climate scientist Catherine Hayhoe of Texas Tech and the Nature Conservancy. She spoke to Scott Tong. You do not work for this national center, but you have said anyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors. Can you give us an example or two of its most important work?

2:28Yes. So we study, as atmospheric scientists, we study everything all the way from what is happening right now with weather through what we expect to happen 100 years from now with climate and everything in between. So the fundamental research that the National Center for Atmospheric Research has enabled over the years has done everything from figuring out why dangerous downdrafts happen that actually cause aviation safety issues to developing the latest weather forecast models that are then later used for operational purposes. Right. So many areas in addition to climate, but on climate science, what is the center's most important work?

3:10The center maintains the largest community climate model in the world. Everything from how we're affected by extreme weather events and how we can better prepare for and forecast events like hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, to understanding how the choices in terms of climate change, the choices that we are making today, how will those choices affect our food, our water, our health, our economy? We need that information if we're going to make good decisions. And the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the leading institutes in the world asking and answering those questions. Yeah.

3:43Well, administration officials, as you know, have said they will break up the center. One of its main funders, the National Science Foundation, uses the word re-scoping. As we wait for details of what may happen, what do you worry most about as far as work that could be defunded, paused? You just mentioned how many other places depend on this work. Well, this is only the latest in a long line of actions that have been taken to defund, to break up, and to terminate the science that's being done across the U.S. It is not only happening in the area of climate and weather. It's obviously, it's happening in the area of health as well.

4:24And what this is doing is it is essentially moving the United States back in its development. We've already seen many National Science Foundation and other grants terminated. And the National Center for Atmospheric Research is funded by the largest National Science Foundation grant. And to have that terminated for political and ideological reasons harms us all. Can the work of this National Center be replicated elsewhere, say at the state level, at Texas Tech and other countries? Or perhaps if it's paused, can it be unfrozen in a future administration? The research that goes on at many smaller universities and colleges and labs and even some private organizations around the country depends on the data, the models, and in some cases, even the computational resources provided by NCARP.

5:20So it isn't a case of you can just move everything over to other places, even if funding were available, you need that scale to really be able to develop and host the fundamental resources and tools that the entire community needs to do this work. So it's like the skeleton of what we do. Yes, you know, there might be a set of hands over here. There might be some muscles over here. You know, there might be a liver over there. But if you don't have the skeleton holding the body together, it's not going to be able to accomplish its full potential. And that's really what NCAR provides. As you know, Russell Vogt of the Trump administration says this center, NCAR, has put out climate alarmism.

6:04How do you respond? That's absolutely false. In fact, research has shown that climate scientists systematically understate and underestimate the risks that we face. Finally, Catherine Hayhoe, the head of the consortium that runs NCAR, has said this attempts to cancel the freedom of scientific thought. In your view, is there a larger cost here, a cost to critical thinking? Critical thinking is already a serious issue. You know, for the last 10 years, business leaders around the world who are polled by the World Economic Forum have highlighted misinformation and disinformation as the number one risk confronting the world today.

6:48And in place number two, they have extreme weather events, which are being supersized by a changing climate and exactly what NCAR studies. So these two issues, misinformation, disinformation, and climate change are really incredibly interlinked to the point where every single day on my social media accounts, I have people posting false information about how this hurricane was caused by weather warfare, or climate isn't changing, or if it is, you know, carbon dioxide isn't responsible for it. It's an invisible planet out there that scientists can't detect, but somehow people on social media have.

7:20So critical thinking is a serious issue right now. And the less science we have, the more misinformation rushes in to fill the void. Catherine Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and professor at Texas Tech University, also chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy. Catherine, thanks very much for the time. Thank you for having me.

7:47Coming up next, China has been called a geopolitical rival to the U.S., a rising superpower, a strategic competitor, and plenty of other things by American politicians grappling with the increasingly important role that China plays around the world. The Trump administration has recently changed its approach to dealing with China and its president, Xi Jinping. After the break, Scott Tong digs into where the U.S.-China relationship stands right now. Stick around.

8:51We'll be right back.

9:11For years, the U.S. government has described China as a systemic rival in a world of what it calls a great power competition. That could be changing. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has, in the view of many independent analysts, softened its approach to Beijing in ways that may support Chinese President Xi Jinping's agenda. One area is Taiwan. Another is the export of high end American semiconductors to Chinese companies. So let's discuss the U.S.-China relationship and where it is now with Jane Perlez. She hosts the podcast Face Off, the US versus China. Jane, good to have you back.

9:50Great to be with you, Scott. Let's start with some news and so you can provide some context here. On Taiwan, the White House just issued this wonky document called the National Security Strategy, and it highlights what it calls non-intervention in other countries. Now, the idea is, right, we'll stay out of other countries' business. Many analysts consider this music to Beijing's ears regarding its claims to Taiwan. And I wonder if I can ask you how you think about this new phrasing from the American government and how it's landing in China. Well, I think Beijing must be very happy and probably this confirms what they've thought for a while since Trump has started his second term.

10:36Trump's always seemed to be, quote unquote, a bit soft on Taiwan. I'm sure you remember, Scott, the famous scene in the Oval Office where he held up a Sharpie pen and said, this is Taiwan and this big resolute desk is China. So right there, he's sort of diminishing the importance of Taiwan. And he's done several things since then to show his disdain in a way. He prevented the current president of Taiwan to do a stopover in the United States. And in the recent meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea, he was happy to go along with the idea that Taiwan was not on the agenda. And that seems to be so that Xi Jinping can bring up Taiwan when Trump visits next April.

11:23And guess what? Trump's probably easier material in Beijing where he seems to be always awed by what's going on. Maybe Trump is easier and more malleable from Xi Jinping's point of view when he's in Beijing and Xi starts to put the pressure on Taiwan. Well, on your podcast Face Off, Jane, you spoke recently on Taiwan and other issues to a retired senior colonel in the Chinese People's Liberation Army, Zhou Buo. And here's a clip of Zhou talking about the Taiwan issue. The Americans' strategy is what they describe as a strategic ambiguity. But I believe there is a difference in the ambiguity in the past and the ambiguity now.

12:04This kind of ambiguity now is more like a fig leaf, because the United States would not be as strong as before vis-a-vis PLA. Vis-a-vis PLA, that is the People's Liberation Army, and that is a view from Beijing, which is what I want to ask you, Jane, a little bit more about. How do you sense Beijing's view of Taiwan, its ambitions to, as it puts it, reunify with Taiwan, what Beijing's ideal timeline might be? I think it's hard to know the timeline, Scott, but it's not difficult to know the determination. I mean, this is Xi Jinping's ultimate goal to make, from his point of view, China complete.

12:52Taiwan, he argues, is the rightful part of China. And he's going to take this democratically run island 100 miles off the shore of China, come hell or high water. The question is, how is he going to take it? Is he going to take it militarily in the coming years by an amphibious invasion across the 100-mile Taiwan Strait? Or, in my humble opinion, and I'm not a military expert, but looking at it all, will he try and take it by squeezing it using gray zone tactics, which they are doing right now as we talk, you know, more Chinese fighter jets over the median line in the Taiwan Strait and trying to squeeze Taiwan, in the end, trying to get it to capitulate.

13:38I mean, that's a way down the road, but I would guess that is their preferred option. Yeah. You know, I spent a few days in Taiwan over the summer, and I heard, as I hear regularly, about how many young Taiwanese people live in mainland China for economic reasons, for jobs. I mean, the Taiwan economy is growing at a fraction of what it was a few decades ago. So the economic integration has to be a piece of this too. Oh, I absolutely agree. It's been two years since I've been in Taiwan, but I was really struck by how young men and women in their 20s and 30s really were impressed with the tech advantages in the mainland China.

14:19And I have to say, my impression is that they're not that keen to fight. I think that the Taiwan military has got a hard time really convincing young people to join the military. Yeah. On technology, let's talk about artificial intelligence and semiconductors, right? The American companies like NVIDIA are designing some of the leading-edge semiconductors in the world, which, by the way, a lot of them are manufactured in Taiwan. But there are concerns that Beijing, if it gets access to the leading-edge American chips, can turbocharge its economy and its warfighting machines. And yet President Trump recently said the U.S.

15:05was going to export some leading-edge AI chips from NVIDIA to Chinese companies. We're talking about these H200 chips. For years, the U.S. administrations of vote parties have restricted exports of technology to Chinese companies. Is there a reversal going on here? Well, there's something of a reversal. I mean, the Trump administration is not allowing the most advanced chips to go to China. But they did greenlight the H200, as you said, which is pretty advanced, but not the most advanced. But there's a lot of worry, I think, not only in the tech community, but elsewhere, that these chips give the Chinese military an advantage.

15:48That's where the problem is. It's aggressively building up its nuclear weapons. It's now got three functioning aircraft carriers. It's got hypersonic missiles. It's going gangbusters on building up its military, though I want to add the military's got a lot of problems too with corruption. But as for the chips, I think that's where the main concern is that it helps militarily. Jane, on your podcast, you recently interviewed Jake Sullivan, of course, the national security advisor for President Biden. And Jake Sullivan told you that Xi Jinping is relaxed behind closed doors. Can you talk more about that?

16:25I was just amazed. I was really stunned when Jake said that. Well, first of all, when Jake was behind the podium as national security advisor, you know, I was a reporter for many years and I used to cover him when he came to Beijing. He's really quite by the book when he's behind the podium. But on our podcast, he became himself quite relaxed. So he told us about Xi Jinping's posture at the negotiating table, in which he said Xi Jinping affects a kind of cool kid in the class vibe. Wow. I thought that was quite amazing. He said that Xi relaxes. He moves back and forth between his points and notes in front of him.

17:07He has a clear sense of what he wants to get across, but he doesn't do it arrogantly. He can set aside the paper and actually get into a dialogue. It seemed quite opposite to what you would expect. Let me ask you about Xi Jinping and China's global ambitions. I know you speak to many analysts, as do I, who suggest Beijing may not want to design, oversee the world order in the future. Here is how Jake Sullivan put it on your podcast. I don't think that China views being the world's leading power, if it can achieve that, as looking like the way the United States did it. So, Jane, for Americans who may fear China will run the world, as it were, what is Jake Sullivan suggesting here?

18:00I think what he's saying is, I think Jake's very proud that since World War II, the United States has done a lot of what he would call convening, you know, getting the G20, the G7, getting the United Nations, getting NATO, getting all kinds of organizations going around the world to make the world a sort of more global place, if you like. He calls it convening, designing, and shaping by the United States. And he thinks that China won't do that, that China will be just a big aggressive power for its own sake, rather than what Jake would see as being sort of the goodness of the world. When you think about Americans and how they talk about China, and you can go wherever you want with this answer, what is one thing you think people in the world get wrong, assume wrong about China?

18:53One of the reasons I do this podcast, and I don't want to sound like a do-gooder, one of the reasons I do it is because I think that so many people don't really know very much about China. And I think there are a lot of people who are curious about China. And so we try to give them a variety of viewpoints and on a variety of subjects that bring people some insight into what this major competitor of the United States is. I mean, I was shocked a couple of months ago. We had a dinner party in New York City, you know, literary agents, publishers, lawyers, etc. And somebody said, oh, does China have nuclear weapons?

19:31I tell you, it's just incredible. So it's not so much what they get wrong. I think it's sort of an ignorance. So let's hope that we can correct that. With the podcast Face Off, that is a podcast hosted by Jane Perlez. She is a journalist and longtime reporter on China. In Perlez, thanks very much. Thank you, Scott.

20:00Coming up, are you a fan of the tiny car? Little park-it-anywhere things common in Japan and parts of Europe? Turns out President Trump is, as well. More after the break.

20:43They bring you news about people teaming up over shared values to protect the climate and environment. LOE spotlights fascinating new science and research and features big picture discussions about living authentically. Look for Living on Earth wherever you get your podcasts.

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21:38After a recent trip to Japan, President Trump posted, I've just approved tiny cars to be built in America. And then, in all caps, start building them now! With three exclamation points. The government is starting to change some rules to promote these tiny vehicles. Andrew Moseman of Heatmap News says the idea of an affordable, fuel-efficient vehicle is appealing to lots of Americans, not just the president. But that doesn't mean you're going to start seeing ads for little Japanese trucks in next year's Super Bowl. I think the thing about America is there aren't that many compelling options at the budget end because the market has been pushing more and more for crossovers, SUVs, trucks, because we've proven that we're willing to pay more for them and they're more profitable for them to build.

22:27You know, the most interesting small cars coming out right now in America are some of the new budget-friendly EVs, like the revival of the Chevy Bolt. But even that is starting at$29 ,000. And it's difficult to produce the car that can do everything that Americans want and also meets our emission standards, our rollover standards, safety standards, and still comes in at an affordable price. And it's always a little tricky to see how the car market is going to respond because it takes so long to design a new car. The solution isn't going to come out next year in terms of, all right, well, he wanted hatchbacks and smaller cars that, you know, cost more like$25 ,000 like we had, you know, yesteryear.

23:06That's not coming out tomorrow. It's going to take him a while to figure out how to do that.

23:14More on that story, including what's so special about Japan's K cars in the first place. As the president says, they're very cute. You can hear that whole conversation and see pictures at hereandnow.org. By the way, how relatable of Trump to take a trip to Japan and come back raving about some part of Japanese culture. I went there last year and I couldn't shut up about the little boxes on street corners that delineated smoking areas and kept smokers and cigarette butts away from the sidewalk. How about that? That's our show for today. Here and Now, Anytime comes from NPR and WBUR Boston. Today's stories were produced by Will Walkie, Julia Corcoran, and Wilder Fleming.

23:58Today's editors were Mark Navin and Michael Scotto. Technical direction from Caleb Green, Matt Reed, and Marcel Damiano. Our theme music is by Mike Moschetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley. Our digital producers are Alison Hagen and Grace Griffin. Here at NOW's executive producer is Alan Price. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with you tomorrow.

24:23Thank you.