Why Trump's blockade might wreck Venezuelan economy but not topple Maduro

0:00Support for this podcast comes from Nature is the Solution, a podcast from the Nature Conservancy. This show tells climate stories like a stubborn optimist, because hope, innovation, and nature itself are key to solving the challenges ahead. Follow on your favorite podcast app. WBUR Podcasts. Boston. This is almost unprecedented. I mean, we have the case of Iraq in the 1990s, unilateral implementation of blockade of this nature we haven't seen in a long, long time. The U.S. escalates its military campaign off the coast of Venezuela, threatening to seize more oil exports by force.

0:58It's Wednesday, December 17th, and this is Here and Now, anytime from NPR and WBWare. I'm Chris Bentley.

1:07A little later on the show, we're going to hear from the daughter of Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong media tycoon who was convicted on charges that could keep him in prison for the rest of his life. Lai was a thorn in the side of the Chinese government, as it exerted more control over the formerly independent government of Hong Kong. So we expected it, but I was a bit sad. But, you know, our father has taught us to meet adversity with a certain degree of cheer and spirit. And that's what I'm trying to do. That conversation coming up in a few minutes. But first, American warships are going to block oil exports from South America in a major escalation of the Trump administration's threats of war against Venezuela.

1:51President Trump says he's ordering a, quote, total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela, end quote. He made that announcement on Truth Social last night, one week after American troops seized an oil tanker off Venezuela's Caribbean coast in what Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has called an act of international piracy. Those U.S. sanctions that the White House is using to justify its military actions do not apply to every oil company equally, however. Francisco Manaldi has more on that. He's director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University.

2:30And he tells Indira Lakshmanan he's got a lot of questions about how this blockade will work. This is almost unprecedented. I mean, we have the case of Iraq in the 1990s under a U.N. sanctioned regime that basically led to something similar to this. But unilateral implementation of blockade of this nature, we haven't seen in a long, long time. Of course, it depends exactly on, for example, if they are only going to block the vessels that are already sanctioned, which are about 40 % of the vessels that usually go to Venezuela, or if it's about all vessels. Well, some people might wonder what legal authority the U.S.

3:15has to block oil tankers going into and out of another country. Explain how that works. Well, you know, the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned in the past companies and vessels that trade oil from sanctioned nations like Russia, Iran or Venezuela. And so because of these vessels, typically they operate without a flag. They impersonate another vessel. And, you know, they basically do not play by the rules of maritime trade. That sort of opens an opportunity for the U.S. to argue that they could be seized. But, of course, this is a very controversial issue, and in particular a whole blockade. If it would imply not only already sanctioned vessels, but say sanctioning every vessel that arrives to Venezuela, it would be, as I said, very unprecedented.

4:18Now, you mentioned that this would apply to about 40 percent of all oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela that would be covered by these sanctions. Is that correct? Yes, that is the case if they don't start sanctioning even more, right? Because the shadow fleet includes tankers that have already been sanctioned because of Russia or Iran activities. But so far, only last week, six vessels that had taken Venezuelan oil were sanctioned. Other than that, Venezuelan vessels coming out of Venezuela had not been sanctioned before. Okay. Well, Venezuela historically has had a petroleum-based economy.

4:58So how could a blockade affect its economy and its political stability? Well, of course, it depends on how much enforcement occurs. But we already seen with just one seizure that we had a very significant impact, for example, in the increase of the discounts at which Venezuela has to sell oil for the black market to take it. And, of course, if volumes also decline very significantly, you know, around 80 to 90 percent of Venezuela's foreign exchange comes from oil exports. So this will have a very significant impact on the availability of currency, which will lead to a massive devaluation of the domestic currency and increasing inflation.

5:46And if it lasts enough time, a significant recession. So 80 to 90 percent of the country's currency, you said, is coming from its oil exports. So then my question is, is this a shadow attempt to topple the Maduro government by making its economy completely unstable, by making its oil exports essentially unworkable? certainly i mean president trump has been uh trying to get maduro to leave the power and there was even a call in which they apparently discussed that and so would economic pressure lead to that outcome is it's not uh known a president maduro we stood a very similar challenge in 2020 because of secondary sanctions to the U.S.

6:36were combined with the COVID collapse in oil demand and prices. And that led to a decline of production to less than half of what it is today. And the price was also much lower. And despite that, President Maduro is still in power. So it's not clear if this will be the factor that will push, you know, some sort of military coup or some regime change or some pressure for Maduro to leave. So U.S.-based multinational oil company Chevron produces about a fifth of Venezuela's oil. The U.S. government has given Chevron an exemption from these sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports. Will this blockade affect Chevron at all?

7:24Well, for now, Chevron vessels are the ones that actually are coming out. But the licenses allows Chevron to export half of what the previous license given by the Biden administration allowed. And the other half of the oil that these joint ventures that Chevron operates produce goes to the Venezuelan government, and they are supposed to monetize it by selling it in the black market. So the question now is if President Maduro cannot sell his oil in the black market in China, why will he let Chevron get his share? And so that's one of the question marks that we have. All right. Tell me, President Trump in his Truth Social post this week referenced oil, land and other assets that Venezuela, quote, stole from us.

8:12What is he talking about? And in 2023, he also referred to we could have taken over Venezuela. We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. What's the president referring to? Yeah, well, it's unclear to me exactly what he is referring to. He might be referring to the expropriation of Conoco and Exxon in the early part of this century by Hugo Chavez that still, you know, particularly Conoco has not been fully compensated. But of course, it's a weird statement. Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston, thank you so much for joining us.

8:54Thanks.

9:00Coming up next, the daughter of media mogul Jimmy Lai speaks out after her father was convicted under the draconian national security law Beijing imposed on Hong Kong in 2020. More after the break. Thank you.

9:45companies to find you the best fit for your health, your lifestyle, and your budget. And they work for you for free. Get the right life insurance for you and save more than 50 % at selectquote.com slash anytime. That's 50 % off at selectquote.com slash anytime. One of the leaders of Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement will remain in prison, possibly until the end of his life, after a conviction this week on crimes against national security. Jimmy Lai is a media tycoon who has long been a critic of China's ruling party. He founded the largest pro-democracy newspaper in Hong Kong, Apple Daily, which authorities raided and shut down in 2021.

10:29U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the conviction shows Beijing wants to, quote, silence those who seek to protect freedom of speech, end quote. Lai is 78 years old, and his health has deteriorated since he was jailed five years ago leading up to the trial that concluded this week. He's also been convicted on other charges of fraud. Well, for more, we got in touch with Lai's daughter, Claire, and one of his lawyers, Barrister Jonathan Price. They spoke to Indira Lakshmanan from Washington, D.C. You know, we expected the verdict. I mean, the law is extremely broad and draconian and very arbitrary.

11:10So, you know, most people plead guilty when they're charged because the conviction rate is so high. but um so we expected it but i i was a bit i was a bit sad but you know our father has taught us to meet adversity with a certain degree of uh cheer and spirit and that's what i'm um i'm trying to do well your father has been in prison for five years already largely in solitary confinement um you've been able to visit him how was he doing um so his in the last five years i mean my father was such a strong, robust man going in. But in the last five years, he's gotten a lot weaker, especially in the last year.

11:54His health has just deteriorated massively. I mean, he is diabetic. He has heart issues now, which he didn't prior to being incarcerated. He has infections that last for a month. He has a failing, his eyesight is failing, his hearing is failing. He has back pains and he has waist pains. He has nails that turn like the purplish grey and fall off. He has teeth that are rotting. I mean, just a myriad and myriad of health issues that are just extremely worrying. And, you know, we're, of course, quite heartbroken. Jonathan, I know you're part of Mr. Lai's international legal team, not the team in Hong Kong.

12:36Sentencing is set for the middle of next month. Can this verdict be appealed? It can, Indira. It can be appealed. There's a right of appeal within 28 days. But the wider issue is that that's just going to extend the legal problems from Mr. Lyat. It's going to extend the period that he's going to be in prison. He, as you point out, has been in prison now for five years, and this trial has been ongoing for two of those years. He turned 78 last week. as Claire has just set out, he's in failing health. And there has to be a bit of realism here. This is a man who's been punished cruelly already simply for committing journalism, for conspiring to speak about democracy and improving the democratic processes in Hong Kong.

13:28And whether or not he appeals, it's time that he was released. Jonathan, could Mr. Lye's conviction actually be a step forward in his possible release, perhaps on medical grounds? Well, the case now to release him on humanitarian grounds is more pressing and obvious than ever before. And the gross unfairness with which he's been treated has attracted the attention of leaders all over the world. You play the clip of President Trump, who has repeatedly expressed an interest in seeing Mr. Lai being released. Mr. Lai is a British citizen. He's only a British citizen. It's the only passport that he holds.

14:08And his own government now has came out yesterday in very strong condemnation of this verdict and the way that he's been treated. And their top priority now is to see him released. Keir Starmer himself is going over to Beijing at the end of January. And now that they have their pound of flesh, now they have achieved the conviction under their flagship national security law in this trial that they wanted, it seems to me that the intention must now focus to securing his release on humanitarian grounds. And that is something that can be achieved at the political level, leader to leader, and all those involved have an expressed, you know, a willingness to seek that.

14:47And we hope that that can be achieved now. Claire, as Jonathan says, your father is a British citizen, Sir Jimmy Lai. Your brother Sebastian, who I've spoken with in the past, has appealed to the UK government to secure his release. Have you gotten any indication of progress to secure his freedom? I'm quite new to this advocacy side, but my understanding is that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is going to China at the end of January. So that should be when we hopefully get the sentence. And as I mean, this is a matter that has to be resolved leader to leader. And we hope that the Prime Minister continues.

15:31and prior to his visit to raise the issue of my father, who, as Jonathan has said, is solely a British citizen in his talks with President Xi. Now, Claire, meanwhile, you and Jonathan are in Washington. President Trump and Secretary Rubio have spoken out in support of your father. Have you personally heard from them? And how have you been really received by other politicians in Washington? We have gotten a great deal of support across the political aisle from the House and the Senate. I mean, it's just last month, 30 senators signed a letter to President Trump urging him to raise the issue of my father when he went to, when during the trade negotiations with President Xi.

16:26And it was later reported that he did, which we are extremely, extremely grateful for. And, you know, in a lot of corners, the people we've met have extremely generously extended their kindness to us, which we are extremely humbled by and grateful for. Claire, I'm wondering, are you worried about returning to Hong Kong because of the advocacy work that you've been doing on your father's behalf? So now that I've started doing advocacy work, the choice made was knowing that I wouldn't be able to return. Meaning that you yourself would be at risk of arrest in the same way that your brother is? Yes, yes.

17:12All right. Tell us about your father's passion for journalism and the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. and what do you envision him doing and where would he be living if he is released? I mean, my father, when he started Apple Daily, for him, I mean, it was like, it was, for him, information was freedom and giving information to people who yearn for it was like, you know, giving them agency and therefore freedom. And that's why he started. And, you know, Apple Daily ran for almost 26 years and it was painfully shut down in 2021. But, you know, my father is 78 and he just wants to spend the rest of his days serving our Lord and just spending time with his family.

18:08And, you know, my brother and I can't return to Hong Kong, but we'll make a home and we'll make a home wherever we're together. And it's so we yeah, we just want to be reunited as a family. And it's the little things that you sort of yearn or look forward to, like eating around the dinner table, like going to the Christmas mass or like praying together at night. and, you know, just the little things. And, yeah. I'm so sorry to hear that you won't be able to return to Hong Kong, which means essentially giving up your opportunity to continue visiting him in prison. And I really feel for you on that.

18:56Jonathan, I know that you also have experienced a lot of threats. You and your colleagues have worked on Mr. Lai's case. In a couple of seconds, tell us who is behind those threats. Well, we have, but it's difficult to say. I mean, we've tried to look beyond that, but it's true to say that since starting work on this case, and I've worked on cases involving regimes all over the world, I've had some of the worst harassment. Thank you, Jonathan. Of all. Jonathan Price, a barrister for Jimmy Lai. Claire Lai, Jimmy Lai's daughter. Claire and Jonathan, thank you both so much for joining us.

19:35We've got to take one more short break, but we'll be right back.

19:59In a world marked by deepening political discord, they bring you news about people teaming up over shared values to protect the climate and environment. LOE spotlights fascinating new science and research and features big picture discussions about living authentically. Look for Living on Earth wherever you get your podcasts.

20:23Support for this podcast comes from Is Business Broken? A podcast from the Mehrotra Institute at Boston University. On the show, host Kurt Nickish asks the thorny questions necessary for this moment about the role business plays in society. Questions like, why are executives paid so much? Why is innovation in healthcare so hard? Is ESG just greenwashing? And of course, is business broken? Follow Is Business Broken wherever you get your podcasts.

21:21NPR's Sam Greenglass told Robin Young, there is a lot of activity in Congress, with competing proposals for temporary extensions of those subsidies and ideas for health savings accounts that could replace them. But it might all just be sound and fury, signifying nothing. Since the only thing that seems clear right now is that many Americans are going to be paying a lot more for health insurance starting January 1st. Even though it now seems like representatives can force a vote on extending the subsidies, at least temporarily, over the objections of the House Speaker. Yeah, they can. And they can do it using a legislative tool that allows 218 members to maneuver around the leadership.

22:03Democrats alone did not have enough votes to do that. But this morning, those four frustrated Republicans, all from competitive districts, signed on, meaning this will get a vote, but it's not likely going to happen this year. I should say, though, that this same three-year extension failed in the Senate just last week. So even if this succeeds, it doesn't mean these subsidies are going to be getting extended. And when you say we'll get a vote, you mean in the new year? Yep, next year. Well, backing up a step, that's past the deadline. So what happens if Congress doesn't extend the ACA subsidies by the end of the year?

22:37Yeah, I mean, it is all but certain that these subsidies are going to expire. 22 million Americans get them, and many of those people are going to see their premiums maybe double or even triple. The deadline to sign up for these ACA plans has already passed, and the fear had been that, you know, people would drop coverage because they could not afford the premiums. And the Congressional Budget Office estimates that could be something like 2 million people. There's more to that story, including how voters might punish members of both major parties for the rising cost of healthcare in the rest of that conversation, which you can hear right now at hereandnow.org.

23:17We've also got a story today about new research into when the human brain is at its best. You've probably heard about the so-called adolescent phase of our brain lasting until we're 25 or so. Well, a new study says it might last a lot longer than that. What we're saying is that the way in which your brain starts to change when you're nine or so continues running, continues rolling all the way through until you're 32. And it's only at that point that it changes gear again into a more stable-like pattern, which we call adulthood. So I'm not suggesting that a 28-year-old's brain is like a 14-year-old's brain, like far from it, very, very different.

23:56But the point is that the mode of change, the way in which it's developing is pretty continuous from nine all the way through till 32. And yes, that is later, I think, than a lot of people think. But really, many of our definitions of adolescence have no real relevance to the biology of our brains. So, for instance, in the UK, you know, you become an adult at 18. In other places, it's 21. There's nothing particular about those ages in our biology that delineates them as important. You can hear that whole conversation at where else? Hereandnow.org. Fascinating stuff. and it would help explain some of the decisions that I made in my late 20s.

24:40But alas, that's all the time we have for today. Here and Now Any Time comes from NPR and WBUR Boston. Today's stories were produced by Jill Ryan, Jenna Griffiths, and Kalyani Saxena. Today's editors were Mark Naven and Michael Scotto. Technical direction from Caleb Green and Matt Reed with help from Marcel Damiano. Our theme music is by Mike Moschetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley. Our digital producers are Alison Hagen and Grace Griffin. Here and now's executive producer is Alan Price. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with you tomorrow.