Small caps are back!

11 Jun 2026 · 53 min · 15 chapters

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In short

The host returns to discuss why “small caps are back,” focusing on concentrated, conviction-based investing through drawdowns, and highlighting specific turnaround/inflection bets in micro/small-cap stocks.

Guest

Irina (Courage and Conviction Investing; Second Wind Capital). Background: runs a concentrated portfolio; does deep work (talks to management, reads/synthesizes calls), invests in small/micro caps with balance-sheet risk; also does tactical/catalyst trading around earnings/press releases.

Key claims

  1. Small caps rebounded after a “nuclear winter” of relentless selling; patience plus diligence can pay off.
  2. Market fear often misprices “going concern” or technical/commissioning issues.
  3. Optionality and resolved uncertainty can create upside even when fundamentals look weak.

Notable examples

  • BuzzFeed: owned during a severe drawdown after missed earnings and “going concern” labeling; recovered after Byron Allen invested (up to $120M) and took CEO/chairman roles; host cites brand/assets (BuzzFeed, HuffPost, Tasty, studio) and debt/covenant details.
  • ARK (green, GAC/commissioning issues): host says core activated carbon business is profitable; believes commissioning can be fixed (management/COO data-driven) and optionality exists (lawsuit, facility sale).
  • Cineverse: host describes two transformative acquisitions (Giant Worldwide; IndieQ ad-tech) and expects revenue/EBITDA inflection plus synergies with owned channels.
  • Leslie’s (pool supplies): “left for dead” distress case; host cites pricing/GTM reset and potential debt buyback via free cash flow.
  • EXLB (licensing/royalty brand): high-risk orphaned setup; expects revenue ramp due to influencer deals with delayed recognition.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Performance and Small Cap Trends

0:45 to 2:32

Discussion on the performance of small caps and the evolution of market conditions since last September.

“Where do you think is a good place to start us off from last episode when you were sharing some of the ways of withstanding some of the drawdowns in the small cap world?”

Personal Investment Challenges

2:32 to 4:19

The guest shares personal investment challenges faced with major positions and the emotional toll during drawdowns.

“I wouldn't want to, I don't want to say blow up on me, but they went sideways.”

BuzzFeed's Recovery and Strategic Insights

4:19 to 7:54

Insights into BuzzFeed's operational challenges, strategic moves, and recovery after significant losses.

“We owned like 4.9 % of the fund through my largest investor.”

Evaluating BuzzFeed's Business Model

7:54 to 10:55

An analysis of BuzzFeed's business model, assets, and financial outlook amidst external pressures.

“paid off and I'm actually really, really excited about BuzzFeed going forward.”

Future Prospects for BuzzFeed and ARK Innovations

10:55 to 14:00

Discussion on the future prospects for BuzzFeed and insights into ARK investments and innovations.

“The stock got to mid fives of Thanksgiving of 2024.”

Market Reactions and Misunderstandings

14:00 to 19:00

Explore how market perceptions can misrepresent a company's true potential.

“There were multiple reports in the media.”

Opportunities in Emerging Companies

19:00 to 22:00

Learn about the potential in lesser-known companies and their growth strategies.

“again long-winded but that's why it's actually like i said probably a better time now to get involved than it was then you want to get into cineverse because i don't want to make you be long-winded about ARK.”

Cineverse's Strategic Moves

22:00 to 28:00

Discover Cineverse's recent acquisitions and their implications for growth.

“I spent most of January and the first two weeks of February with Dan working in concert with Cineverse.”

Investment Insights on Micro Caps and AI

28:00 to 30:40

Learn about the potential growth of a micro-cap company in the ad tech space and the importance of patience in investing.

“But there could be a lot of growth on the ad tech side and also with the midterm elections.”

Analyzing Leslie's Pool Supply Company

30:40 to 35:36

Discover the turnaround story of Leslie's Pool Supply and the factors influencing its equity performance.

“And if they do, then the stock will take care of itself.”
Show all 15 chapters

The Importance of Risk Management in Investing

35:36 to 42:03

Understand the challenges of sizing investments and the significance of having rules to manage risk effectively.

“And my stupidity, because I had other stuff going on.”

Tactical Earnings Trading Insights

42:03 to 44:32

Learn about tactical earnings trading and the importance of discipline.

“And then I do a lot of, while we're waiting on the core long book theses to play out, I do a lot of tactical earnings trading, catalyst trading, right?”

Personal Stock Selection Process

44:33 to 45:49

Discover the speaker's organic approach to stock selection and market analysis.

“As we close out this conversation, somebody left a comment on one of your previous episodes asking if you were following the stock conduit, CNDT.”

Exploring a Tiny Market Cap Opportunity

45:50 to 50:45

Gain insights into a small cap stock and its potential market impact.

“Like just, just to, to show you something real time as opposed to, okay, I bought this and it did this.”

Life Lessons from Investing

50:46 to 51:56

Understand the personal growth that can come from facing adversity in investing.

“So don't start putting orphan and widow money into this thing.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:09Courage and conviction investing our favorite person to talk small caps and the market with welcome back to the show Irina, it's great to be back. It's been a while. I think it was last September. And thanks for reaching out. I'm thrilled to be back. It's great to have you back. And like last time, we have had fervent fan requests for you to come back. Some of them have made some very nice returns on some of the stocks that you have highlighted in the past. We just had David Keller on, who said he knew you, on yesterday's episode. and he was talking about how small caps have done extraordinarily well this year.

0:50Where do you think is a good place to start us off from last episode when you were sharing some of the ways of withstanding some of the drawdowns in the small cap world? A different story today, I think. But where is a good place to start? When we talked last time, I think I said, I want to say it was September of last year. Yeah. I simply said that if you were downstream of the 550 billion CapEx cycle for the hyperscalers, that was the easiest place to be. And that there had already been a big leg up. And that's not at all what I do. but it turned out that if you simply took that advice and at the highest level and said okay the hyposcopes are spending 550 billion that's accelerating they're using all their free cash flow plus they're taking on debt and the tens of billions because there's this arms race as to who's going to get there faster who's going to have the leg up um that would have worked exceptionally well You simply just bought a basket of art.

2:04Who's downstream? Um, I want to say sand. This was like$80 then. Unfortunately, I didn't do that. Cause that's, I didn't take my own good ops advice. Cause that's not what I do. Um, I want it to be hard. I want it to be difficult. And, um, and it's instead I, I, I got, uh, entered a really tricky period starting in November of last year. So I had three of my biggest positions. I wouldn't want to, I don't want to say blow up on me, but they went sideways. Okay. So, and I tell my kids this, I have a daughter, eight, son, 10 and 12, another son. And in life, you're going to face adversity. I don't care who you are, how healthy you are, how wealthy you are, who you know, um who your favorite uh you know mickey mouse characters it's gonna happen you gotta face adversity and that i got a nice uh i got a nice dose of adversity starting in november so i had my largest position which is buzzfeed they missed earnings badly q3 took down guidance stock got cut in half.

3:21So I maybe owned it at 180, stock was 160, a friend of earnings would get cut in half, 80 cents. ARK, which is a big investment that I've owned for five years, owned it in the family offices as we do BuzzFeed. They had commissioning issues with their granular activated carbon. A flip from a huge profit, we're talking millions in profits on the family office side to a huge loss. And then I forget if it was Q4 or if it was Q1, there was an additional leg down in ARC. So it dropped, say, from, say, we owned it in the threes or fours, it hit six and a half, got down to the threes, and they say, oh, we just didn't figure out the commissioning issues, stock got into the ones.

4:11Okay. And then my second biggest position, which is center restrooms, which I want to talk a lot about today, because that's my favorite idea by far right now, also had issues. And that was a huge profit. We owned like 4.9 % of the fund through my largest investor. I got permission to mention him. He's Dan Kaufman. He's an absolutely brilliant guy. We had a 4.9 % stake. Things were going great. They had a couple soft quarters. and that got hammered. So within the span of a month, I literally had the three biggest positions go sideways. And it's so difficult emotionally, psychologically, when that happens.

5:04If there's one, okay, no big deal, especially I run a concentrated portfolio. So, um, well, this was literally being stuck in the jobs and wilderness by yourself. Um, and so there was, there was a lot to, to kind of work through that. But throughout that period, I kind of maintained my courage. I maintained my conviction. and certainly in the case of BuzzFeed, it's turned out to be a great turnaround and it's recovered. But just to frame this for you, this is just directly in my parents and my family, directly managed family money. We had 1.3 % of the equity in BuzzFeed. so this is prior to the transformative buyer and allen deal and we owned it at say a dollar 40 and in march of this year stock traded to the 50 cents like 54 cents so on half a million shares mark to market we were down like three or four hundred thousand dollars and so people can talk about courage and conviction, but try telling your parents when you have 20 % of their net worth in a micro cap that just filed a goal and concern label that now my conviction's there.

6:36I've talked to management. I've done the work. This is very undervalued. There are a lot of ways that this thing still works. Let's stick with it. Um, and then fortunately, um, Byron Al made an investment in, in May. Um, he put, uh, up to$120 million into the company for 52 % stake. He took over as CEO and chairman, which was Jonah had super, the CEO had super voting shares. So market wasn't expecting that. And thing rebounded from that night. it was 73 cents ahead of earnings to into the twos and so i was able to kind of right size the position reset the position uh that night in the twos there's 13 million shares traded and then um we've since bought back a lot of those shares um in the 120s 130s but so that that was that was a huge recovery.

7:37Um, but again, I don't know that there's anyone probably on this show or anywhere that, that has ever had 20 % of their parents' net worth in a microcap has decided to go on concern lately. And so I'm very thankful that it worked out and, but ultimately that the research paid off and I'm actually really, really excited about BuzzFeed going forward. I think it's, it's a very different company going forward with Byron. Um, we can talk about that more later. in terms of ARK with Dan Kaufman. One of the stock was between$1.60 and$1.75. We doubled up. He filed a 5 % stake. We're still in touch with ARK.

8:17It's rebounded. We think it's worth more. But those are the big swings, right? It's literally everything that we've ever talked about. We've had plenty of other interviews or three or four other interviews. And I did everything I said I do in those interviews. You take the drawdowns, you talk to management, you do the work, you check your work, and then you try to maintain sanity and logic and reason in the face of relentless selling negativity. The company is going to go bankrupt. This is going to happen. And you have to separate those emotions and say, no, no, what's this thing really worth?

8:57What am I paying for it? Is there opportunity adding a lot in these drawdown periods? and then we can talk a lot more about Cineverse but anyway that's a super long wanted answer but it was literally going from the the valley and then we're starting to climb back up and I wrote a piece to my group that weekend we're so back and that's how it felt it was just such a relief of have this nuclear winter everything go against you for six months and you kind of persevere and you push through it. And ultimately, the things start to look up and the theses are starting to play out. Last time we talked, we were talking about, you were talking about Billy Joel at the beginning.

9:46I had said that it was my first concert. You write under Courage and Conviction Investing, but your investing group is called Second Wind Capital. And after last episode, I emailed you saying that I was kicking myself for not remembering the Billy Joel line. And if you'll allow me, I'm going to quote it right now before I ask you to get more into BuzzFeed. And for everybody out there, it's good advice. You better believe there will be times in your life when you'll be feeling like a stumbling fool. Take it from me. You'll learn more from your accidents than anything you could ever learn at school.

10:18Don't forget your second wind. With that in mind, properly girded against the machinations of the market, what would you say are the top reasons that you're bullish about? Let's start with ARK and BuzzFeed. And what has you concerned? My favorite idea right now is actually Cineverse. We'll get there. We'll get there. Just like two minutes on these. So BuzzFeed. This was absolutely insane. So I've had so many calls with Jonah, with Matt, Omer, the CFO. I've been in this thing since Q1 of 2024. Owned it at two and a half. The stock got to mid fives of Thanksgiving of 2024. They sold hot ones. Um, to, to the Rose group for 82 and a half million, but they kind of gave weak Q4 guidance.

11:09We had a massive profit sold some, but not certainly not enough. And then we took this big drawdown. But if I, if I take a step back, I say, okay, what do they own? Okay. They own the Buzzfeed brand. And they own HuffPost, which is arguably very valuable in this political environment, regardless of the way you sit, because they have a great demographic. It leans more higher educated women, but a lot of people go to HuffPost to get their news in the morning. I think they're doing a great job with lesser resources than some of the bigger media outlets. They own Tasty and they own the studio, which they have a micro series drama.

12:05And they also are in feature films. They have a film coming out on the 18th called Girls Like Girls, which is, I believe, based on a very popular bestselling book. and so at 54 cents at 37 and a half million shares the equity was like 23 million or 4 million they did have 45 million of debt turned debt with sound point and um there were two covenants so there was a a five million dollar tranche that had to be paid and that kept getting extended and they have a 15 million dollar tranche that was there was due at the end of august but what If you looked at the balance sheet, if you talked to management and said, well, listen, we have a New York City studio lease expires end of May.

12:52Once that expires, the LC will get released within a few days. We'll take that$15 million and we'll pay that tranche. And so, yes, they had a goal on concern labor, but they had restricted cash. And the other debt is all movie debt, which is tied to tracks, credits, and it's not really debt, if you really understand it. But it's on the balance sheet, but it's like a special purpose debt. It's not truly debt like secure debt is. So if you took a step back, I'm saying, all right, is Jonah, who is a founder of this company, his sister is married to Jordan Peele, one of the biggest directors in Hollywood.

13:33This guy knows tons of people in Hollywood. They've had all these incredible interviews. I said, is this guy really going to default and lose his company over$5 million? And last year, they made$8 million in EBITDA. So it's not like this company was hemorrhaging money. There's definitely seasonality in the business. They make more. Q3, you can make some money. In Q4, you make money. And they actually had a really good Q4. But the market gave them no credit for that. They jumped on the going concern label. There were multiple reports in the media. Jonah's going to fail. bank, take out the drums and let's do our death march.

14:13And it's just like, I talked to management. I, if you read the call, if you synthesize the call, it was totally different. They were so much, much more upbeat than what it was portrayed, but that was the conventional wisdom. I'm like, there's no way John is going to default over$5 million. And he, he, they were again, very high level saying we're working on partnerships. He's been saying that since November when that stock got cut in half, everyone cut and ran. And I said, no, it makes sense. And by the way, the Buzzfeed Island, which is their AI app, because he's becoming the head of AI app studio, is actually fantastic.

14:48I don't really like the Conjure app. I kind of got bored with it. I did. My daughter and I were doing it for a while. But the Buzzfeed Island app, I think, is actually really, really cool. So you put all those things together and the market thought it was a foregone conclusion that they were going to file, hence why the equity was priced so low. And then sure enough, Jonah saves the company. And I guess there are multiple parties involved. He couldn't get into all the details. And we got Byron Allen, a billionaire media guy that literally he just took over Stephen Colbert's spot for CBS. On the day that he got interviewed so many years ago by Joni Carson, that's where we got to start.

15:34um it's huge and the market's not giving any credit they're saying oh we only put up 20 million in cash up front and there's a hundred million dollar promissory no and it's not a flake on it's like what the hell are you talking about why is this guy gonna flake on him he's a billionaire okay number one it's just it's just sound financing he's putting up some money up front and then he pays the rest and if you look at the the board who he has his whole his he brought his whole team over he's a ceo and chairman he wants us to be successful but that if you listen to the uh nila patel decoders interview it's 67 minutes where jonah goes on the interview and then if you listen to a lot of the uh pr circuit that that byron's gone on he's gone on bloomberg and guardian a lot of different places he lays this all up so this is a media guy this is an ad guy that has huge connections and as jonah talked about the decoder interview he said And I was great at the technology piece, but I was not a great CEO.

16:36I made some mistakes. I made some misses. And I'm not a great public company CEO. His words, right? I'm not, right? Obviously, I believe in Joe because I stuck with it the whole time. Whereas Byron and his team, these are deal guys. And in this environment, it's about going and getting direct ad deals. That's what drives this business. so if you look at the they have a programmatic piece they have the direct side but the direct side's really been weak they have the affiliate business and they have the studio and the content side um if byron can land say five million a quarter in new ad deals that the business completely inflects right now you go from a digital meeting publishing company to now a growing company and because byron sees the value of the assets how how much reach they have in the viewership if he connect them with the right audiences and his synergies with some of his all his other own media properties this business is still selling even a dollar 40 depending on how you want to value it how you want to value the preliminary note by the way will jang on essay wrote a fantastic piece that actually incidentally was published today on um uh essays free site has a really nice thesis really well thought out i've talked to will really sharp guy uh young guy from nyu super sharp um and it's just like i can't believe this thing's trading at a dollar 30 or dollar 40.

18:09given byron island's reach given one transformative deal or a couple direct ad deals. Maybe they do something with BuzzFeed Island. Maybe, as Will said, maybe they do something with the studio with Tasty. There's so much optionality. The balance sheet risk is gone. And everyone's looking backwards at, oh, they don't make a lot of email or they're piling on saying that Q1 wasn't that good. Well, Q1's always seasoning the weakest quarter. And they were spending probably all their time with SoundPoint trying to get a debt extension on the um tranche of debt and again everyone's looking backwards i think it's an incredible opportunity it actually is a much better opportunity today at a dollar 40 than it was back then because there's so much uncertainty that's been on that's been resolved so that's again long-winded but that's why it's actually like i said probably a better time now to get involved than it was then you want to get into cineverse because i don't want to make you be long-winded about ARK.

19:13You can get into your favorite pick if you want. Yeah, I mean, quickly on ARK, stock's stupid cheap. Green directly-grade carbon's an oligopoly structure. The assets at Red River are probably worth$300 or$400 million against a market cap of$260 ,000 times$42 ,000, 110 million. But because they had those commissioning issues, their core PAC business, Power Activated Carbon, which has used different applications for coal and other remediation, soil, it's all different. So that business is doing 15 to 18 million EBITDA, but because there's uncertainty as to what happens to fix the factory on the GAC side, no one just wants to get involved.

20:10And we had an hour call with Eric Robinson, who's their chief operating officer. Eric was phenomenal, incredibly talented guy, came out of retirement to help the chief technical officer, Joe Wong. He walked us through. he's ran 18 plants globally in a 30, 40 year career in chemicals. So he's seen everything, done everything. I said, out of one to 10, is it 10 being putting a man on the moon? How difficult is this to fix? He said, it's probably like a four or five. And he takes a very data driven approach. You line up the pins, you knock it down, you take the data, you do it again, you do it again, you do it again, you iterate.

20:52And so it's just the market has to get comfortable with, okay, what's it going to cost to fix it? How are they going to finance it? Everyone thought they were going to raise equity. Management owns 20-something percent of the company. They're not going to do a dumb equity deal. It doesn't benefit them. There's optionality and they could win a lawsuit against the engineering firm that allegedly made a lot of mistakes. I don't want to comment about that too much. They obviously couldn't comment about that too much. And there's also optionality they could sell their Corbin facility. And so that's, again, just market doesn't care, giving it away.

21:29We, with Dan Kaufman, we doubled up between 160 and 175. We're 5 % holders. We think the value's there, but we're going to be patient. You know, that's fine. We're happy to be patient and wait. And if management can deliver, then this should be considerable upside here. But again, in this markets, what have you done for me lately? and no one wants to sit in positions for periods of time. So should I flip to Cineverse? Flip to Cineverse. Please do. I spent most of January and the first two weeks of February with Dan working in concert with Cineverse. I can't say too much until I sign an NDA, although the deal's already announced, so I can say high level.

22:16But we spent a lot of time because they had two transformative deals and he was the largest shareholder. So they came to us and said, hey, we have these two deals. You guys want to sign an NDA and look under the hood? And we said, yeah, we've been in it since the twos and the stock hit seven and we didn't sell any. So we want to do it. And they bought, so basically they bought this company called Giant Worldwide, which has all the Hollywood media badges. And they work with the streamers. It does a lot of the back office stuff, the back behind the scenes technology stuff. I don't want to get too down into the weeds there.

23:03They paid only$2 million for that business. And that business should do 15 to 17 million in revenue this year. Their fiscal year starts April 1st and could do three to four million in EBITDA. But if you synthesize what they say in the conference call, It sounds like this thing could maybe do 20, maybe 25 million in revenue, but maybe five, six million in EBITDA because they use their, their existing match point technology and their software, AI software to plug and play. The giant already had all the Hollywood badges and the contracts. Now they're applying their, their AI based technology to solve those needs.

23:44And, and giant was turning away business. And now they, I, I, from, from what it sounds like, it's going swimmingly well. Secondly, they had this really interesting, um, ad tech business called IndieQ and they structured a really clever deal. So IndieQ's gone from, I don't know, a couple million in revenue to, they should do 40 million in revenue this year. So growing rapidly, that's over a couple of years and it should do eight or nine million in EBITDA. and it because of their owned and operated property so so centerverse has uh 16 fast channels they own bloody and disgusting as they're big in the horror side um and they have other properties when they layer in the ad tech piece of it it it creates the full solution that um these big companies need that was the one piece in their uh art folder arsenal so to speak that they needed and so you're going to get huge synergies because when you plug it into their existing owned and operated assets and then there's also a huge cost save because they they made the mistake of ramping up the direct sold side because they're so excited about this their match point suite of technology but it was it's such a long lead cycle it was six months it was 12 months, there's 18 months to try to get to the key decision makers.

25:09And then, and it's not like it's the most important thing for these companies, especially with the M and A going on in the space. Um, and so if a company that was once a hit driven movie company and they did have a huge hit with Terrifier three, they made a lot of money and it's why they stocked it really well. Their subsequent films didn't do as well, although they were underwritten well, and they still made money on them. uh with the factor in streaming revenue whatnot but um long story short they needed 16 million dollars to finance this deal so my largest investor dan kaufman we spent seven months on this with diligence the hell out of this we had management calls because the indyq's out of uh denver my daughter would knock on my door saying dad it's like 10 o 'clock you're supposed to tuck me in i'm like oh sorry sorry had you slipped me a note under the door and i'm right it's right back sorry i'll i'll tuck you in in five minutes she's eight uh but and so but because of what kauffman does he was the perfect guy because he doesn't have any investment committee he's just a really wealthy guy that's that's been incredibly successful in real estate but he's even he's even i was a great entrepreneur did really well there but he's an incredible investor and And so we, we did 12 million out of the 13 million convertible deal.

26:33And so it, it, it attractive terms, no warrants. He's a long only investor. He doesn't short like these structured guys that destroy companies. And we invested alongside management. That's why management spent so much time with him. Cause they knew who Kaufman is. They knew what he's done. They know how successful he's been. I'd be looking at his form 13 filings with Harrow filed in the twenties of stock, hit 60. he bought eight figures and i80 gold at 50 cents the stock hit 220 plus he got warrants in the deal um he was just participated in the deal that so that's a 4x and on size he's had many many home runs and he puts his cap but only is a long term investor and again he doesn't short companies he doesn't do structured stuff and there are literally so many structured companies that destroy businesses these companies do these deals with the devil they're horribly structured and they get warrants and they short against the stock every time it does well.

27:30And unless the company does exceptionally well and knocks out of the park, most times shareholder value gets destroyed. So because of that capital, my other investor put some equity in the deal. We were able to lead the deal, help them raise the$16 million because there's a cash component, there's a stock component, and there's earnouts. but this is a business that could do 15 or 20 million the guy i think 10 to 20 million even for this fiscal year starts april 1st and so even if you account for all the dilution on the convert and and whatnot i can't believe the stock's trading at two and a half dollars um given the inflection point this is going to have in terms of revenue doubles and revenue uh rim significantly but this huge runway in terms of what match point can do as they get more embedded with the studios, as they prove it with the studios, which they're already doing through the giant acquisition.

28:28But there could be a lot of growth on the ad tech side and also with the midterm elections. Given the properties they own, the fast channels, it has nice reach with genre. That's a nice tailwind. An old name I owned years ago, EVC, they had an ad tech business, did exceptionally well. Um, stock has gone from three to 10. Um, there's another, uh, AP APPS. Again, I'm not saying it's exactly the same, same thing. Ad, ad tech business has done well. They're, they're fine on the right. It's telling us the stocks have had massive legs up. So you got this little tiny micro cap company, two and a half dollars a share with tan Kaufman leads the deal.

29:14No one's paying attention. stock traded up from like two to three 40 and then guys don't want to be in it because they can't hold the stock for more than 30 seconds and um and it hasn't showed up in the numbers so it doesn't exist into the algos yet because the numbers aren't um disseminated to the there's so much quantitative money that gets run in small caps and micro caps so as far as the algos are considered and the quant strategies they don't even know this company exists because everyone's looking backwards and they say no well they they made some money and they lost some money they got a little bit of debt this looks like a terrible company but stocks are about the future and we're just patient we're just gonna wait maybe the june quarter because there's only going to be a month in the queue it won't be as good but it should show some signs of progress and i'm really excited about the quarter entering in june which we should deliver in august um again no one's paying attention to stock uh no one sees it coming but it's it's transformed this technology company related to ai that's inflecting and no one cares and that's fine and that we're happy on the investment side to do that stuff and just be patient and that's because he has duration because he doesn't have an investment committee he can be very patient and if the thesis plays out it could be a multi-bagger and that's kind of our expectations.

30:38But again, they have to do it and they have to prove it. And if they do, then the stock will take care of itself. I was going to ask if you wanted to do an update on Carvana, which was a stock that we've talked about in past episodes. I haven't. A name where, again, I love to be contrarian. It would have been so much easier just to have bought SanDisk and bought micron to bought all the ai related stuff but that's not what i do um i i haven't i haven't it would i did a lot of work on it when i was 20s a couple years ago they they threaded the needle they did a great debt exchange they bought a desk which was a great acquisition they just offered the customer much better experience um they they really saw that niche that no one liked to experience with the dealership especially on the used side And they ate CarMax's lunch and they've just done a great job.

31:32But I'm not really tight on the name and haven't kept up with it. So I can't. I can't really speak to it well. But I do have a name that we recently had some success with. And it gives us a good flavor of what we're trying to do and what we're trying to accomplish. And this, I think, is pure alpha. Let's hear it. Leslie's, the pool company, the pool supply company. so in may so this this is a company that in may had a 18 million market cap against 850 million of debt the debts turned out to 2028 they're supposed to do 65 70 million dollars ebda the top line could be 1.1 billion to 2 to 2 billion and so given where the equity stub was people said this thing's going bankrupt the bank debt traded at 38 cents well they announced a really good quarter in may and this was non-seasonally for the pool because they come they've completely revamped the go-to-market strategy what happened was they were getting dinged because they were uncompetitive on the key chemicals and the key staples that everyone can shop and price and so we talked to the cfo on may 28th and he said there'd be a bucket of 35 pound chemicals and we'd be priced at$179, whereas everyone else, Home Depot, Lowe's, Amazon, all these companies was in maybe$135,$140.

32:59And so we lost the customer. We looked at our key net promoter score. We had great relationships. We had all these value-added services. We had this long tail of selection. If you needed equipment, hard to carry things, but we completely lost the customer be because we kept our prices way too high a few years post-covid when the market was really tight and a lot of supply come out of the market and they completely revamped the business and and because because um the the the debt has very low covenants these are all clo people that in the debt, um, there was a real path to, um, potentially doing something creative.

33:47But what everyone I think potentially missed was because the top line is so high in absolute dollars, a billion one, a billion two, if you can get an additional 20 million or 30 million in, in EBITDA dollars from 65 million to say 85 90 100 million um that that makes a huge difference what kind of free cash flow you can generate and with that free cash flow you can turn around and buy back debt um at a discount and there are other creative things that you can do and this is this was always a it was a great business but they completely took their eye off the ball and because they made fundamental transformative of changes and again we'll see how they do and they have to they have to execute and they have to prove it but we bought the equity at two bucks the day of earnings the stock ripped to 475 um then it came all the way back to 230 but then in collaboration with um a couple friends including chad arnold we talked to management and um we just really liked the cfo and we understood that the covenants are, are pretty to, to, to keep a high level or a very covenant light.

35:06So there are a lot of things that could potentially happen. There was a new 5 % holder. And I think it's like eight bucks today. Um, in full transparency, I did sell the vast majority of it at seven. Um, cause two to seven is, is a, is a, is a nice return. I want to see what happens. Uh, but I know Judd and others think it's worth a lot more. um again i just i'd rather prefer to see it but that is kind of and it doesn't always work in this distress stuff but that's an example of pure alpha left for dead it's going to go bankrupt everyone hates it everyone's looking backwards well stocks are about the future and when the future changes when a business transforms when you fix the balance sheet um we were in uh beasley broadcasting and i screwed this one up they had they had uh 400 million dollars in debt they paid off a lot of the senior debt and they were able to get the the the uh second lien debt to do a 50 haircut paid in kind again with a stub equity it was like i don't know i was buying a five and a half and i forget there's like a million eight shares and the family owns it so the equity was like the day they announced that i said wait a second the equity's gone from five million to seven million and they're going to reduce 200 million in debt if they can get the they can get everyone to agree to it so what the heck this doesn't make any sense and they had other assets to sell because they own all these different radio stations and they had sold other assets in the management and the company wanted to keep control yada yada yada And I didn't play this one while I was in it.

36:49And my stupidity, because I had other stuff going on. This was before the BuzzFeed recovery and some other really great recoveries. I didn't fully capture the move from 5.5 to 25. But there's so much alpha and there's so much opportunity because no one plays in these names. Everyone's playing AI. What's hot? What's sexy? We had this huge melt up and all these huge companies from April to, to before the recent connection or correction where AMD goes up 150%. There were dozens of these companies. Um, but that's not my game. Cause I don't have any edge. The whole point of investing is to have an edge.

37:38If you don't have an edge, what's the, what's the point? You're just kind of guessing, or you just kind of going with the flow. And again, if you're on the right side of it, if you're on the right side of 550 billion, 600 million of CapEx spending and you just bought a basket and you get an early degree, but that doesn't happen that often. And I just don't know how I can add value doing that. It's been very successful for people and, you know, that's great, but you don't get these, it doesn't happen that often that hyperscalers spend that kind of money for that period of time because AI is so unique.

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38:12so in other market cycles you're not going to have that easy layup whereas in micro caps and small caps if you do real work if the balance sheet is a little bit questionable there's no one covering these companies if you do real work you talk to management and you have a basket of these different companies it's so much fun and that's where you can create a lot of health. That said, if you can get a couple of these a year, that's great. And you're going to miss. You're going to make mistakes. Things aren't going to work. The sizing is still something that I struggle with. How to size it, when to add to it, when to take some off, when to know when you're wrong.

39:00But like I said, we're so back. And, um, I'm just having so much fun collaborating with, uh, my group, uh, with some really good friends, some really seasoned, really smart people. And then we trade ideas and it's an adventure every day. What's, what's going to happen today? What company are we going to learn about? And then, but again, the hard part is where do you spend your bandwidth? Where do you spend your time? Because your time and bandwidth is incredibly valuable and you need to deploy it. as effectively as you can, but you're always learning. You're making mistakes, and that's how you get better.

39:38And so, you know, I love it, and it feels so good to be back. People's confident, like, wow, you got your stride and your step. And I said, listen, thank God it worked, but I never lost a step. All these people thought I lost a step. I never lost a step. I'm kind of joking with you, but... The courage and conviction were latent, if not evident. Yeah, it's just so much fun. No one's playing in this. It's like playing poker or playing cards. Do you want to play against the best minds in the world and all trading AI? I have zero edge in what NVIDIA is worth or what Oracle's worth or Broadcom or Hamilton.

40:22I don't have a clue. I don't even know what they do. right whereas these small companies that have pretty simple businesses to understand leslie took me three or four hours that night to get up to speed read the conference call synthesize and say wait this is this is probably mispriced and um turns out it's worked out and again they have to prove it they don't prove that the equity is not going to stay up here but when it works you can generate some good returns any further notes that you've learned or that you'd care to share about sizing? Any salient lessons lately? I really, really struggle with sizing.

41:01It's kind of been my Achilles heel. I did get too big in BuzzFeed. Not that it wasn't good risk. It just, there was a huge opportunity cost because I had so much capital in it. And it did turn out to be very profitable to really aggressively add after the March quarter. But prior to that I oversized it And I've made this mistake a number of times It's been kind of a weak spot Where It is probably good to Maybe have some rules Some hard and fast rules Where you say okay My highest conviction name And again this is very sure I'm not saying this is what anyone should do This is what I'm just suggesting Maybe in the highest conviction name you have Maybe you go to 15%.

41:52Some people would say 2%. Some people would say 3%, but I run a concentrated portfolio because that's how I try to generate returns. I probably should cap things at 10, 12, 15. Stuff that I really like, maybe 7, 8. And then I do a lot of, while we're waiting on the core long book theses to play out, I do a lot of tactical earnings trading, catalyst trading, right? because the a lot of the book is just invested and it's it's it's kind of set it and monitor it but there are there are there there is a there is a lot of there are a lot of good trading opportunities too because i'm up early and i'm seeking out as great tools for tracking the press releases and i follow hundreds of different companies so every morning i'm checking every 10 minutes is there any new press releases i'm trying to synthesize them faster than the market it and you can definitely generate um some good money there as well that's much more labor intensive and it's you have to look at it like a batting average too and and sometimes you get them wrong you have to take the loss and sometimes it's difficult you have to kind of say all right that one didn't work i misread it or it wasn't what i thought or just didn't play out and it's important to kind of set some stop losses and have some discipline there because that can those can really get away from you as well.

43:09But I do find that can be a very good source of, of incremental alpha, but you have to be kind of really engaged and, and, and want to really do it. It's not, it's not like, oh, here's a list of 10 stocks, buy them on January 1st and see what happens at the end of the year. There's a lot of rolling up your sleeves here. There's a lot of volatility stuff gets whipped around by the algos. Um, but again, it's, it's so much fun. of just intellectually what's going to happen today what am I going to learn and it's kind of fun getting yourself in trouble sometimes and then that forces you to really dig in and say did I do the work right did I go back and synthesize the conference calls did I miss something here and sometimes you do and say okay I got it wrong I have to I have to just kind of move on from this or other time say no no this is this is great the market's given us this gift giving us this opportunity that because the, the outgoes whip dog people or people got trapped because they have such a short time horizon, um, that can create great opportunities.

44:14And so, but again, you, you do really, you have to think about the sizing, work on the sizing, because it, it, it, it's a blessing and a curse when you, you're concentrated and it works and in case it plays out, you generate tremendous returns, but on the flip side, you can also get yourself in trouble pretty easily as well. As we close out this conversation, somebody left a comment on one of your previous episodes asking if you were following the stock conduit, CNDT. Are you? No, I'm not. Just wanted to check. I don't really, I've had my own process. And if like a good friend mentioned something to me, I'll take a look.

44:56But I like to try to find these things organically. That way I'm not biased or trying to incorporate not hurting someone's feelings or maybe just doesn't jump out at you. It can be kind of tricky to say, oh, it just didn't fit me. So you're basically getting into stocks on either a personal recommendation or the story is compelling in some way? I'm looking for inflection points. I'm looking for stuff that no one's paying attention to, that they're missing an angle. I'm starting to do a lot more work on this Excel brand. It's tiny. I'll give a little preview. I am in it, but I need to talk to management and reach out to them today.

45:42Uh, ticker is EXLB. It's tiny. The market cap's 12 million. They have 10 million data. I can quickly walk you through it. Like just, just to, to show you something real time as opposed to, okay, I bought this and it did this. Okay, great. Oh, we'll take that. You know, how does that help me? So again, high risk, tiny market cap. This is a licensing royalty brand, uh, business, like sequential brands, which actually went bankrupt and authentic brands. And basically the company had all these really terrible or fourth tier, I should say, apparel and jewelry licensing deals. And they were on QVC and home shopping network and the business really never worked and they lost money and the cost structure was too high and they had debt and they raised capital.

46:31Well, they flipped the business model to a more of an influencer business now. And they've gone from eight different personalities, so to speak. And they flipped away. They've moved away from apparel and stuff that has high tariffs to U.S.-made stuff, consumer-facing stuff. And because of the lag between when the revenue shows up, so they go out and strike a deal. Their best relationship is Cesar Millan, the dog whisperer. He has 21 million followers. think about how much money people spend on pets and and people love their pets he has a huge huge following they have that relationship they cultivate it over a year um and they're going to be in um multiple channels brick and mortar the shopping networks amazon etc and the revenue starts to hit q2 because of the lag there's a 12 month lag between when they sign these people up And then when they have all the design and behind the scenes, cause they're out working to win, to drum up business, to get this product, to figure out what are we going to sell?

47:45How are we going to present it? How are we going to market it? And then how are we going to get it into these various channels so we can maximize the revenue and do right by the, the, so these celebrities that they're working with. But because the revenue lag, everyone's looking backwards. And so you have three key relationships. Revenue starts to show up Q2 of this year, okay? And then really ramps second half. And so the cost structure is$8 million, and they do have about$10 million in debt because they sold one of their brands. And the equity is a little stub equity. It's$11 million, right?

48:29They're saying, looking backwards, oh, they lost$2.5 million in EBITDA. They have debt. This company's terrible, blah, blah, blah. And I'm looking, I'm saying, no, not really. Maybe not because now you have these three different influencers. Their product is in the market. They're generating revenue. They're generating licensing fees. That's going to ramp. So the revenue should ramp from, say, 5 million to whatever number. I haven't modeled it that closely yet. and the business should inflect from losing money to hopefully crossing the rubricons and making profits but if you synthesize the recent conference calls they said well we're trying to do 18 million in 2027 royalty so on an 8 million revenue base with some interest expense that's 10 million and then you haircut that that could be 5 million of free cash flow they have to do it they have to prove it.

49:28But if they do, the equity is not going to be$11 million. The enterprise value is not going to be$21 million. And because royalties are value that royalty businesses are valued about six times revenue, if they do hit those figures to do the math, six times 18, again, they have to prove it and the market doesn't believe them. That's over$100 million,$108 million. The debt would get paid off via free cash flow, that's a huge delta between where the equity is and where this thing could go. No one pays any attention to this company. It traded a lot of shares this week, which put it back on my radar, did a bunch of work, need to talk to management.

50:18But again, I'm looking forward. Everyone's looking backwards. and I do see a path, they have to prove it, that this could be a really, really interesting setup because of the low starting base valuation, because of the debt, because of the perception. But now I have some tangible evidence that the revenue is going to start to ramp up. And I don't think any of that pricing to the stock currently. Again, super high risk. So don't start putting orphan and widow money into this thing. caveat emptor thank you so much courage and conviction investing always appreciate catching up and and hearing your thoughts on small caps which many are happier back uh again your investing group is called second wind capital seeking alpha is having a 20 off sale right now so take advantage now is a good time any final words before i let you go great to reconnect i appreciate the slot, getting slotted back in.

51:20I would just say, like I told my kids, like I said earlier, life is going to throw adversity at you. When you push through it and you get to the other side of it, you grow a lot as a person, you learn a lot that way. And that's where the growth happens. So it can actually be a blessing in disguise. And you can apply that to multiple aspects of life, not just investing you could apply that to relationships jobs family what have you it's if you just just have to kind of stay up and kind of push through it and try to do the right things and um things can turn around and maybe life will take in a different and better direction than you imagine but you have to keep that optimism you have to keep that hope and then you have to match that with some some good thoughts and action anyway it's it's it's a blessing to be here and um You know, there's a lot to be thankful for.

52:14And I really appreciate your time and reconnecting with you, Rian. Appreciate you, friend. Amen to that. Just a reminder, anything you hear on this podcast should not be considered investment advice. This is for entertainment purposes only. And you should seek advice from a licensed professional before investing. If you enjoyed the episode, leave a rating or review on your favorite podcasting app. And we'll see you soon with a new episode.

From the publisher
For small cap investors, it's taken a lot of Courage and Conviction to see through recent drawdowns (0:35) BuzzFeed update (10:40) Arq update (19:15) Why Cineverse is Courage and Conviction Investing's favorite stock right now (22:00) Leslie's an example of pure alpha (31:50) Position sizing (41:00)

Show Notes:
Investing In Small Caps With Courage And Conviction
BuzzFeed: Sum Of The Parts Upside Has Yet To Play Out

Transcripts

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