AI is Ending the Social Media Era and What Comes Next | Gary Vee

0:00I think we're at the beginning of the end of the social media era. I think AI cracks the current value proposition of the social media platforms in their current state. This is already my favorite podcast ever. I'm talking about a very smart thing. When distribution changes, everything changes. Augmented reality is a huge winner. If we really do go to glasses and we're really here, we could have a third guest right now. And she's here. Some of the data that I'm seeing show that we're starting to show that we want something new. A lot more people are saying they're going to unplug than actually unplug.

0:31Right. People are like, Gary, in the recent poll, I'm like, stop, stop. From the wheel to AI, we will go. AI will meet you where you are. And where you are at all times. I think video is a very big deal for human beings. Videos have been the proof of our society for 100 plus years, and we're five years away from no one believing a video on the internet. That's the dangerous part of this. So let's talk about it. We're almost two decades into this era of social media, And we can feel like it's a constant because we're so used to waking up scrolling or talking about social media. But the reality is the industry is a variable.

1:10It's not a constant as all industries that are born of different technologies. So I'm trying to understand, are we at the beginning of the end of the social media era? And if we are, what's coming next? Today, I'm sitting down with Gary Vee, one of the legendary earliest creators in the social media economy. He was one of the earliest people to write checks to companies like Facebook and Twitter. He has a notorious track record for understanding what could be coming next and where we're going. I'm Shane Beauval, and this is I've Got Questions. Okay, so I have a thesis. There's three parts to it.

1:43I've teased it out on social media a little bit. I've written about it in my sub stack, but I've never put it together for anyone in its entirety until now. And I think you're the perfect person to run this through it. Well, I'm flattered. So I think we're at the beginning of the end of the social media era. Okay. Part one of the thesis. So I think, and they're all tied to AI. I think AI cracks the current value proposition of the social media platforms in their current state. So we post because people watch us, right? Whether I'm signaling that I'm single or taken, that I'm employable, that I was at the beach the other day.

2:21There's consumption on the other side. We post for human receipt. Yes. If we can't verify that I'm posting for a bunch of R2D2s or actual people, that psychology of signaling starts to break. So I post, but what is the incentive? Because the feedback is not guaranteed. Want to start? Okay. I'm going to build them all and then you can... Yeah, no worries. Okay. Part two, the better AI gets and the more reliable this technology gets, especially as it transitions towards voice first, the less I'm going to want to pull out my phone and it's going to start to break that habit that we formed of opening, swiping, watching, viewing.

2:59And I'm just going to say, Alexa, Uber, order this thing, do this thing, and I'm not going to open and watch. And then the third, AI, it's a general purpose technology like the internet. And these technologies don't mean that we do the same thing just faster or more automated, we do different things. So I think, you know, television, YouTube isn't automated TV. It was new people that gained influence. So I feel like we're on the beginning of something entirely new that will have threads to the social media economy, but it will be unrecognizable as going from cable to TikTok. A couple of things.

3:38So that's awesome. This is so fun. This is already my favorite podcast ever. I would argue that cable and TikTok are not wildly different. Okay. So that's put on a shelf. Okay. Let's go back to the beginning. Yep. The value prop. Yeah. The reality is it will be and, not or. If your numbers, let's just go where I think you're going. Correct me if I'm wrong. So I don't believe AI bots or agents consuming content eliminates the reality that humans could also consume that content. So I view it as an and environment versus or. To your point, to many people's points in fake fraud media world, pre-social, like bots in digital marketing, you know, if I see 14 million views and I know that that's actually only 300 ,000, that creates a new, you know, micro dynamic.

4:33Sure. But if the results of what I want to happen happen from the 300 ,000 people that actually saw it, if I'm now posting and 99 % is bots but 1 % is human and all my metrics are 99 % fake but one is human or AI or bots or agents or wherever we go, if the results that I want are still grounded in the 1 % of human instead of 100 % human, I'm still going to be incentivized to do it. if I say I'm single and the only people that are trying to date me is an AI agent robot, bad. It's possible. But if it is also going to be people just drowned out metrically and maybe optically by data robots, agents, well, then I'm still going to do it.

5:22If I am going to sell wine or get stopped by 500 people in the street and say, you changed my life, even though yesteryear it was 100 ,000 views and that's what resulted in it. And now it's 40 million views, but it's really only 100 ,000 views. I'm still going to do it. So the question becomes, if there is still human consumption, no matter how drowned out in an overall metric and the actions are executed on by those humans, I don't think we walk away. So you're saying, okay, if I'm selling makeup and sure, now I maybe have a million views, some of those are going to be synthetic. But if I'm still growing my sales because that information is getting back to a human, somehow I know that this is still working something's happening that it is actually working correct one of the cool things about why I think we I built one of the biggest marketing companies is I don't care about marketing in a silo and I think the marketing industry does I care about what marketing does for a business right yeah so I've never worried about anything other than I do this all the time like trying to remind people like this is not art class We have to drive this insurance company's business.

6:29Right, right. So that is a comp to what I'm saying. But how does this happen on the same platforms? Because what I'm envisioning is cable and then TikTok on the same channel, and that's not going to work. This is where I think you're wildly right. So I think one of the things you said is like, you know, so A, I could not agree with you more about voice. In fact, we started talking about this. I've got some good ass receipts in 16, 17 because I became infatuated. I started seeing early AI. I'm like, oh, shit. Alexa's a beast. You know, like I really voice AOR. And we're in the worst voice technology we'll ever be.

7:03Oh, my God. And it's the most conversation easiest for us. I only prompt in voice. Me. I only prompt in voice. And there are entire businesses that are now voiced first. So you go into their offices. There are startups. They're not typing. They're talking. And it's much more of a natural person. By the way, I'm so pumped about that. As someone who can't write for shit. Right. Somebody can voice his ass off. I'm pumped. Yes. Yeah. Anyway, so I'm a buyer. I've got another build on yours. Okay. Because you're talking about a very smart thing. When distribution changes, everything changes. I also believe, forget about voice, that I'm with you on that.

7:34That's one thing. Where is it? So you do agree that voice could break that loop of open phone and watch something? For sure. And open phone and watch something is being battled on not just by the voice devices, but this is coming. Glasses. Glasses. I would argue that voice would be an and because we still want to consume visually. I think it's glasses. I think voice, to your point, may be a dent in consumption. But I think if glasses pulls off its mission, whether it's Meta, whether it's Google. Apple, who knows who's coming. And you know this. Could be some secret lab right now. There's a Chinese-based company.

8:13There's someone building something. That when glasses comes, that, I believe glasses is the most obvious thing brewing that is going to do to phone what phone did to television and what television did to radio. I fully agree. And so, okay, so let's paint this new economy. So maybe you throw in your glasses and or you have AirPods. So when Apple dropped AI translation in their AirPods a couple months ago, and it is amazing that you can do translate anything anytime. I saw an AI in your ear. That is the beginning of that behavior, AI and ear talking to AI. I mean, social media companies are now actually competing with people talking to ChadGBT versus going on those platforms.

8:52100%. So we're already seeing that. I wrote a book, Day Trading Attention. I think it's the only asset, and I think you're touching on this. They're all competing. They're all competing. I mean, they're competing with sleep. They're competing with working out. They're competing with us doing what we're doing right now. Netflix versus TikTok, TikTok versus the New York Times. Soon the live experiences, which we can get into. But let's paint this ecosystem, right? So you maybe throw, someone's going to throw on glasses when they need to see something, but it can't look the same way, right? You can't be scrolling TikTok with your eyes.

9:25The format has to change. So I think that 90 second video clip, we are at the beginning of the end of that as the center of gravity. I think video is a very big deal for human beings. So I think that's the dangerous part of this. So let's talk about it. Couple things. I believe, and I have a feeling as I'm starting to get in here with you, that you'll see this as well. I think augmented reality is a huge winner. You know, AR is going to be very big. If we really do go to glasses and we're really here, we could have a third guest right now. And she's here. So I think video starts to get very three-dimensional.

10:08And interactive. Correct. It gets really powerful. So to your point, like watching a 30-second video in a box on your phone is absolutely going to feel as mundane as like the old motion pictures. Totally. Like, you know, like you see, like they used to move it manually. Like, no doubt. Yep. I think that, again, I'm just looking at everything I can see with my eyes right now. If it goes back to the sphere in Las Vegas, that venue. Yep. Like, do I watch Star Wars 67 in 20 years where everything is activated? I think so. Everything is part of the potential. That's right. Like, it's not limited. But it will be in video form.

10:48It might be in AR, three-dimensional form. As the technology grows, I'm in the movie. Like, it gets really immersive. Like, I don't see how we are not robots at some point. You know, probably not in my lifetime. Maybe in my lifetime this stuff sometimes goes pretty fast. But hopefully I live long. But yes, I think that is the case. I think it's the glasses and AR content becoming the winner in that decade. What video in this device. I think this is the distribution. Like, for example, the LLM, you know, AEO, GEO thing that you brought up about Uber or utility. When I'm going into Uber, I'm going into Uber.

11:29I'm not on Instagram anyway. I don't think that's taking away. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm in Uber anyway. Yeah. I'm in Uber for 13 seconds. And I go back to Instagram. Now, it's frictionless to your point. It's so easy. But I'm not worried about that part that you brought up. I think voice plus glasses is bad for phone. And we reset. And I agree. I think in the beginning, just like this is such, I'm going to make a prediction I'm very passionate about. I believe a lot of the early executions will be silly. They will be one minute videos that just show up in your glasses. because a lot of people won't be used to the new distribution.

12:06The first commercials on television were radio jets. It was a photo and a man read just as if he was on radio. And it took time for us to understand the power. This is a new system. Correct. So totally new operating system. Voice interface and AR interface in a world where we're wearing this predominantly. I think it's going to get so good 10 years after it comes out that people will struggle to take their glasses off because you won't even be able to live in the world because you'll be missing too much 20 years after. Just like the iPhone. You may know this. The original big app on the iPhone was drinking a beer.

12:42Like, silly. We didn't know yet. That's a long cry from Uber or Instagram or what have you. And so, yeah, I think those are the themes I agree with. So it's either the current players, and they're probably planning for this because you do seem to step into our glasses. But the future, it's not a continuation, right? You don't just pile on the new thing. There is an app or some kind of experience waiting to be born that combines either the glasses and or AirPods and or some form of a pendant. That's a new type of interaction that's just not this. This has no shot. It's done. It will take time. This isn't tomorrow.

13:25Correct. I think it's, you know, I think it's still, I think this has got a decade for real. Do you think it has a decade? I do. Because I think the glasses that I'm talking about and the voice interface, universal, everywhere we turn, has more work to be done. Meta's Project Orion, I think, is hoping for six years from now. And that's like, they're ambitious and hopeful. And then even when it comes out, I mean, this was my thing back then. I was like, when the iPhone came out, I'm like, all of you are going to have an iPhone. They all laughed at me because they all love their blackberry. So did TechCrunch.

13:56Everybody slammed the iPhone. I remember. It was going to bomb. Of course. Fail miserably. People don't understand people's, like people don't understand what people value. Like at the time for me, it was an easy read. I'm like the internet's on this and not like the Blackberry, like the real internet. Yeah. This is a computer. So, you know, I think that it will be that kind of window, but this will be replaced by a more extreme version of this, just so you know. Do you, okay. So I think, I mean, some of the data that I'm seeing show that we're starting to show that we want something new or we're ready for what's next, whether that's people spending less time on social media, especially Gen Alpha.

14:35And I know that that's something that you've talked about. People want to live in the world now. I love that. I agree. I love that too. I think it's barbells. I think we're going to go into extremism on both. Look, the technology is too intoxicating to the human being. Like we only go one direction. It's always extreme. Yeah. Like it's always the new technologies win. like people held on to candles and lanterns but electricity won people stuck with their horses for a little like yeah yeah we just go to the next we're going to because it's just too important it's just it's too obvious it's the most historical truth of man from the wheel to ai we will go move forward yeah and we will have pockets of adjusting like everyone smoked then no one smoked and by the way smoking's starting to come back like not vapes right cigarettes the cool kids in Brooklyn are starting to do it again.

15:25You can see it. It's starting to happen. Alcohol. No. Yes. No. Yeah. It ebbs and flows. Cannabis. Most people don't know the history. They don't understand. Go back 150 years and we were good. It's medicine. Yeah. And then it's got cancelled and then it's back. Correct. So we ebb and flow in the micro. We're tired of all this for sure. And then there's kids always want to be cool. So I'm going to get a CD player. There's all that. But in the macro the tech will win the tech could be getting so extreme the fun thing to think about is that's how it's always gone is this so extreme that it does create this counter on the barbell do we start understanding the weekends more do we go in hyper acceleration of ai to a three-day two-day work week what the fuck does that mean five days of leisure it now you are yogaing and climbing a mountain you know like extreme capitalism might look like socialism yeah like you know this gets really fascinating what i meant by that everyone is you know seven companies become trillions because of this technology and they have all the moats well they might you know and and jobs are just getting red government's going to get involved and make them subsidize the carnage so i don't know these are all the fun questions i think about constantly yeah and i think we do ebb and flow i think we're going to go through a dip where people are going to go offline and we see a bit of a renaissance.

16:49And I think marketing companies are going to figure out how do I leverage technology? Because it's not that you're getting now a telegram to tell you where the new thing is in the park. Companies are going to figure out how do we use technology to get people into offline experiences that are worth attending. And that's coming. That's happening. And we're seeing it. I would argue that's been happening. I would argue that technology has been the gateway drug to in real life. Like, I'll give you an example. Do you know how many people are going to go out on a date tonight that it started in their phone tonight most people yeah do you know insane that is i would argue that's been happening like literally in new york we're in new york city right now yeah tonight is tonight wednesday or thursday wednesday okay tomorrow night i'm just gonna go with thursday tomorrow night do you know how many people are about to go on a date tomorrow night in new york city where that started with a dm on instagram or tinder or something else like linkedin apparently Yeah, sub stack.

17:45Writers are on fire. That happened digital to then go to have a meal or a drink or a coffee. It's been happening. I think we in society are tackling a lot of anxiety around a lot of issues. geopolitics is not chill not 2002 I think modern parenting had a tough chapter the last 30 years so we have a lot of insecurity in the early 20s and 30s in society in western first world countries I think we've become dramatically materialistic unfortunately materialism has really had a good run I think we're really overly we're ready to unsubscribe from that I mean I've been my whole life's been unsubscribed for that and I think so much of my happiness My 30 year old T Yeah I love that well that's cool you know that's ironic cool the other way I'm like oh she's cool so I think there's a lot going on that makes it easy for us to not be accountable of our own shortcomings and say ooh it's you and so that's what I'm spending a lot of time thinking about which is why we're for example you know this with data a lot more people are saying they're going to unplug than actually unplug we talk big announcing it that's what people like Gary in the recent poll I'm like not interested stop stop so you think it's less people are talking about moving offline but hardly anyone's going we're seeing it in some of the data with Gen Alpha they're physically not getting the same phones and they're not signing up on the same page or they're in DMs I agree that's right I see that there's a lot to watch with them I have a 16 and 13 year old and I spend so much time on youth culture there's a lot to see how it all plays out I think there's a lot of ironic cool I think Gen Alpha is doing its thing against Gen Z, which is like so fun to watch because I got to really watch Gen Z do it to millennials, created a whole new dynamic.

19:39When I was growing up, I'm Gen X. Like we didn't even know that we were in Gen X or I didn't know what a boomer was. Like, you know, we found another thing to separate us. Yeah, yeah. I always a character. I hate it. I hate the whole generational thing. As if religion, race, gender wasn't enough things to divide us, we added another thing. You know, there's a lot of tension. and I think that seeps into how we view technology. I think we're blaming technology and I also think we're posturing. I think we say something in a poll or a survey and we act a different way. We are aspirational. So your dating profile, your LinkedIn, your resume is who you hope to present yourself and you probably answer a poll in that way too.

20:16You're very sweet. I would argue that we're full of shit and we're hypocrites. You know, I think we're audacious. I think people think they can trick people. You know, one of the great things that happened in my life, luck of the draw DNA wise, parenting circumstance was my intuition's really on and it's really hard to trick me. And I think that scared me because I was like, wait a minute, I don't want to trick the 99%. I want the 1%, you know, intellectual, successful, optimistic, good to like me. I'm not going to trick. I think a lot of people get away with tricking people or think they can trick people because they're trickable.

20:57So it brings me to an interesting point because we've been hearing a lot about the word authenticity, especially as it relates to AI. So people saying, OK, AI is coming. There's going to be AI influencers or I mean, I think Adam Mazzari did a big mini essay on Instagram talking about the rise of AI on the platform. And we know we see what you're seeing and we're going to try to figure this out. Instagram is going to have to figure something out. But for the meantime, try to be authentic, authentic because authenticity is going to win. I feel like we're off to shaky ground. And we're thinking about authenticity in relationship to a machine.

21:33I feel like that's already out. I think authenticity should have nothing to do with the AI or anything else. I don't even know where we're going with that without authenticity. That's great. I love how you think. A couple things. Let's go backwards. Is it authentic to make art on a canvas? It's one of my favorite historical events. When the canvas was invented, all the artists said. It was radical. They said it wasn't real. They said, if you make art on a canvas, it's not real. You must make it on a building. The amount of people that just heard that, that had never knew that. And they think that's real art.

22:08And like an NFT? No way. Digital art, right? So machines. Was it authentic for people to show up on radio and television? Because that was a machine. So like those are machines. Did that require, did that require, like did you have to, did Martin Luther King have to just was he only authentic to the people that were on that lawn? Because fuck, I surely felt something I went to MLK Elementary School and that was a big deal for me as a kid that speech, you know I get where you're coming from but I think it goes further back like was it authentic to write down words on a piece of paper with an ink pen versus saying it to someone?

22:51I don't know, it depends on my point of view is the intent and the actions are the authentic part not what's distributing it yeah totally the intention because we quickly go to authenticity just being don't put effort in i mean but if you're looking at someone like wes anderson i'm sure his movies aren't cheap to make but they're authentic to him well that's right so authenticity it's like we shouldn't it shouldn't even be in comparison to others or machines it's what is interesting to you plus what can you do like you earlier said my sub stack like i'm so not jealous or envious but like i'm like man i'm i'm so capable of communicating with my words and thank god that can translate into written but to write god i've got nothing and like sometimes authenticity is incredibly insular and solo totally it's on it shouldn't be a performance often like the fact that we immediately went to how you present yourself to the world and it comes down to how you it's missing the point i've never By the way, actually, back to the original creator, I am one month away.

23:54In a month will be the 20th anniversary of me making my first YouTube video. YouTube wasn't even six months old. Congratulations. No lighting, no audio. And I did that for five years. And by that time, everybody did have lighting and audio. And I don't know. It just like, it felt just fine. And guess what? It did great. And it worked. Because I knew what I was talking about with wine. I was knowledgeable about wine. I was passionate about wine. And I really wanted people to learn about wine that were under 40 from a non-pretentious person so they could enjoy it instead of thinking it was some academic test.

24:32I feel like I can do that with an AI movie right now, too. And it will be authentic. Whatever is interesting to you, if you are someone, too, that likes the frills and likes the perfection just because people are saying AI can maybe do that, if that's what inspires you, keep doing that. because we don't want to adapt away from ourselves because of a machine. And I think we're running in circles around it. There's a really funny saying that modern parenting has for little kids that says, this is the saying, they'll say to a kid, don't yuck, they're yum. My kids are 16 and 13, and I heard that 10 years ago.

25:09And I was like, that's awesome. That's how I see life. This was more about like, don't say that. Yeah, yeah. Snacks are not nice. Because they love them. That's interesting to them. But that's where you're going. And that's just like, I'll be honest with you. That's like, in fact, it's my number one thing. I don't understand people's audacity to think that people should see the world the way they see it. I'm passionate about sharing my observations. But I'm in the business of conviction, not convincing. And I think we are all spending way too much time on convincing. I agree. Okay, I want to step into the agentic economy.

25:47because I think we see it quite similarly, and we talked about it a little bit. And you had painted an example at an event. You were doing a fireside chat. And just in case anyone's listening that isn't familiar with what is going to happen in a voice-first agentic economy, can you give us an example of where we could be going? And then we'll talk about what that could mean for people who think they have a message to say, and how does the agent find you or a brand? Yeah, I think what you're setting me down a path of is this concept where you just walk in, and you're just like, hey, Alexa, I have six boys coming over for dinner tonight and I want pizza.

26:20And one of them's lactose intolerant, enter. That's like, you're done. You don't even say enter. I'm like laughing that I'm saying enter. We're in a place where you're gonna talk this out and if you do not name the brand or you're not specific, the agentic is gonna make the decision for you. It's a very big deal. We're also gonna set our preferences. There is a day of reckoning coming where I can tell you for me, I'm going to set the deodorant I buy and it will be set and repeat and the agent's going to buy it for me and I'm not going to be seduced by an end cap at Walmart. And like will an ad on social media compel me enough to change my settings?

27:00Maybe, actually possibly. In fact, that could be the biggest of them all. You can really prove advertising in a world where imagine if Amazon buys Snapchat, has a feed during that short-term era as we're changing platforms, and I see an ad for something and I'm not liking it. I'm actually resetting my preferences on the reordering of my shampoo to this shampoo. You're going to find out how valuable advertising is fast. It is about to change so much. I think if you're buying a wedding dress, sure, you're going to be in the mix. You're going to be watching, looking at all that. Or, check this out.

27:33or for some people pickles. You're right about wedding dress. Sure. These high ticket items. Correct. I'm actually really fascinated by pickles. Do you like pickles? I do. Good. Me too. Do we like pickles enough that we're really going to be deliberate about it? No. I don't think so either for me but let me give you one that I will be just because this is fun. Wine. Okay. I'm not going to be like, hey agent, just$20 wine, whatever you think, best deals, go. Uh-uh. I like wine too much. I'm going to be in there with, it's going to be and. 90 % is going to be you. Price, convenience, set, reorder for me, reorder like the product is going to be internet of things when it's down to a little bit.

28:14It'll reorder itself, all that. But it'll be fun to see who cares enough about pickles to set pickles. Will you do toothpaste? How do you feel about toothpaste? I'm chill. I'm chill on it. Me too. I'm chill. Give me something mundane that you're not chill about. Supplements. Beautiful. there you go so let me say me could give a fuck okay I'll be like whatever actually back to like where the world's really going I'll go to Atria my bougie place here in the city they're gonna do blood work and whatever the right math is like I don't take it right so like but like for you I'm comparing it I'm running it through an AI I'm just that's right and you're gonna not let you're not gonna be like order supplements just keep me good no no we're gonna converse about it and so that I'm painting the picture that I think we're all going to which is we're gonna all learn that everyone has things that they really care about I mean there are people listening right now that are like I'm not letting my AI order my beer I'm gonna be specific sure and there's a place for you that's what's gonna be so awesome we're all gonna be in a place of and it's gonna be so cool we're gonna figure out what we actually care about and things will change I may have my beer set and forget just so I have beers for company and then I might go on a trip and I'm like oh I'm into micro brews now and then I might reset it and that whole interface of like watching your life of like what you care about what you don't care about some people think you should really I'm gonna blow you away you said car I don't give a fuck that's crazy because I know car is like big ticket people really care the logo the color the leather I don't send the car so Gary will be like car best price best deal like whatever arbitrage is that I care about time convenience you know yeah AI will meet you where you are and and for me and where you are at all times and also you're gonna set your intentions so for me with food I would be like okay I have people coming over to pizza party.