Trump Steams as Court Refuses to Grant Block on Missouri Decision That Benefits House Democrats

0:00Michael Popok:Will the Democrats take the House? Well, it could come down to one seat and one seat only. And that one seat may well be in the state of Missouri in the fifth congressional district around Kansas City. The Supreme Court of Missouri, in an en banc meeting, all the members of the Supreme Court decision, they ruled on Thursday that a map that the Republican legislature in Missouri wanted to use that would have given seven out of eight of the seats to Republicans has to be thrown out and can't be used for the midterms. And instead, there has to be a referendum, a vote of the people as to whether that map can be used.

0:37Michael Popok:And the older map has to be used instead. That would regain the Democratic advantage in the fifth congressional district. And we've got a incumbent there, Emmanuel Cleaver, whose chances under the new map was about 25 percent, now going up to 98 percent if the old map is used. It's this old district. And why does this matter? Because it could come down to one vote. It could just be one extra vote as the Democrats end up taking 230 or 231 seats. But there is a statistical chance 2%, 3 % could come down to one seat. That's why the Democrats are fighting so hard. That's why the state of Missouri has tried to disenfranchise its voters and go to the United States Supreme Court and file an emergency application to get the United States Supreme Court to overturn the Supreme Court of Missouri about the use of the maps.

1:36Michael Popok:Will they? I'm not so sure about that, based on how the fact that the states are the ones under the Constitution who determined the time, place, and manner under Article I of all federal elections. Given the fact that the Supreme Court of Missouri is the highest court in Missouri when it comes to its own election rules, I'm not sure the United States Supreme Court will. actually overturn the Supreme Court of Missouri and take away that assured Democratic seat. And it all passes through Brett Kavanaugh. He's the associate justice that sits over states like Missouri. He has given the opponents, which would be the respondents in the case and others, until noon today at the Eastern District time, at the Eastern time, to file their opposition to the Secretary of State of Missouri's petition to try to get the new map to be used.

2:37Michael Popok:It all comes down to whether the state law, the statute in Missouri provides that all such maps, if changed, have to go through a referendum if properly initiated. Yes or no? It's pretty clear on the face and in the reading that the Supreme Court of Missouri believes that this has to go to the voters. This can't be just a new map that comes flying out of the legislature. I'm Michael Popok. You're here on Legal AF on Labor Day weekend, on Labor Day Monday. Hit that free subscribe button. Help us to continue to grow our pro-democracy channel. Okay, let's talk about this Supreme Court of Missouri decision that just came out that has already been appealed by the state of Missouri.

3:23Michael Popok:This is what it says on page one and two. This case involves a straightforward question of law. Does the Missouri Constitution permit a referendum on a congressional redistricting act passed by the General Assembly? In other words, if your state legislator gets together with his bunch of buddies and comes up with a new map, Does that have to go, and can that go through referendum to be voted on by the people? The order continues, there is no dispute that the referendum petition was properly signed by all the voters seeking a referendum on House Bill 1 was timely filed. Likewise, there's no dispute the referendum petition has the number of signatures required by the Missouri Constitution.

4:07Michael Popok:The only issue is whether the Missouri Constitution authorizes the referendum petition as a matter of law. About an hour before the statutory deadline, the Missouri Secretary of State, Denny Hoskins, held a press conference and issued a certificate of insufficiency of petition, finding the referendum petition is insufficient under the Missouri Constitution because it doesn't authorize a referendum on congressional redistricting passed by the General Assembly. In fact, here's a clip of that Secretary of State. Well, because it's a moot point. Both the referendum as well as IP 2026-16 have been ruled unconstitutional.

4:48So again, it doesn't matter if there's one signature or 500 million signatures. They're unconstitutional according to Missouri State Constitution. What gives you the authority to make this decision, though, to determine that it's unconstitutional instead of to just determine whether or not there are enough valid signatures? What gives you this authority? Well, what gives me this authority is when I was elected as secretary of state, I took an oath to follow the Missouri Constitution. And that oath means a lot to me. And so I'm going to continue to follow Missouri state law. I'm going to continue to follow the Missouri Constitution.

5:21I know some folks out there will be mad that I am following state law in the Missouri Constitution. And I've told here's what I tell them. Contact your state rep, contact your state senator and ask them to change state law. Our legislature is the one who makes laws. As Secretary of State, I just administer the law, and that's what I'm doing.

5:38Michael Popok:Well, that's not what the Supreme Court of Missouri says. They say because the plain language of Article 3, Section 49 of the Missouri Constitution authorizes a referendum as to any act of the General Assembly, and no exceptions applies, the referendum petition was legal, sufficient, and timely. It can call for a referendum, vote yes or no on something that the legislature does, actually anything that the legislature does. And this is the issue that is now up at the United States Supreme Court. Given the express language of the Missouri Constitution, which I'm not saying would override the federal constitution where there's a conflict because the federal constitution would have priority and supremacy over the state constitution.

6:28Michael Popok:But in an area where there is no competing provision, there's nothing in the Constitution that provides voters the right to a referendum over an act of a state legislature. Missouri has that. So I think the Supreme Court is going to have to ultimately defer on that. On page seven of the Missouri Supreme Court decision, they say that a mere three years ago, the Supreme Court reaffirmed Hildebrandt, a case the United States Supreme Court, and again rejected the argument that the elections clause prohibits a state referendum as to legislation drawing new congressional districts. Basically saying this case, Moore v.

7:08Michael Popok:Harper, is directly on point, where the Supreme Court concluded that redistricting is a legislative function to be performed in accordance with the state's prescriptions for lawmaking, which may include a referendum in the governor's veto, and rejecting the contention that the elections clause vests state legislatures with exclusive and independent authority when setting the rules governing federal election. The Supreme Court affirmed, quote, a state legislature may not create congressional districts independently of requirements imposed by the state constitution with respect to the enactment of laws.

7:44Michael Popok:Seems to suggest that the Supreme Court, unless there's another vote that's flipped, is going to rule in favor of Missouri. And that would give the Missouri congressional delegation one more Democrat. It would actually probably put two seats in play. Certainly, the congressional district, District 5, that we talked about with Emanuel Cleaver, he would basically be assured of being reelected. And there's another district that could also be in play. I think it's the seventh or eighth district, where the chances of, sorry, the second district, where the chances would go from 8 % to about 30 % for a Democrat.

8:35Michael Popok:And why does this matter? I mean, most modeling looks and predicts that the Democrats are going to take 230, maybe now 231 seats in the House out of 435. You need 218 to govern. So they would have more than enough. But there's also statistical modeling that shows there's a 2 % chance that it comes down to a single vote, hence the fight in Missouri, don't you think? You know, polling is interesting. You've got new polling out, which we should all have a lot of confidence in, polls of 20 to 30 different polling entities, and then the poll of polls showing that Trump is disfavored by 63 % of the country, his favorability rating hovering at about 35%.

9:31Michael Popok:That includes the Fox poll that shows disapproval rating of about 61%. You can't get reelected president with these numbers, and your party is going to lose and take a bath at the midterms with these numbers. But of course, Donald Trump sends out his lackey, Brendan Carr, the head of the Federal Communications Commission to go on Fox News of all places and talk about how they're going to start investigating and sending nasty letters about news organizations and broadcasters that broadcast fake polls. What's the definition of a fake poll? A poll where Donald Trump is behind by 20 or 30 points? That's every poll.

10:09Play the clip of Brendan Carr talking of threatening about

10:13Michael Popok:fake polls. I guess those are the polls where Donald Trump is sure to lose. Play the clip. One more thing I do want to ask you about. President Trump was watching Meet the Press last Sunday. He did not like that the moderator said his record on endorsements was mixed. He said he was going to report Kristen Welker to the FCC for rebuke or punishment. You are the FCC. Have you received this report? Well, one thing that President Trump gets fundamentally is that broadcast TV is completely different than other forms of distribution, including cable. And so many broadcasters right now, they want to break the deal that they cut with the American people.

10:47They get billions of dollars in taxpayer effectively subsidized distribution. And what they're supposed to do in exchange is operate in the public interest, not some sort of narrow partisan interest. I think President Trump is over the target. And we're looking at a lot of actions. For instance, there's a lot of interest right now in fake polls that are out there. And so the FCC may put guidance out soon to remind broadcasters about their obligations with respect to not airing fake polls, particularly if they're done to suppress people heading into the fall.

11:16Michael Popok:So I don't know what fake polls are. I know what voting looks like. I know what early voting looks like. And I know what congressional seats look like. And it looks like a bloodbath, a sea change election against MAGA and Donald Trump and the Republicans. But we got to continue to follow what's going to happen next now that the total filing is done and the briefs are in, in the Missouri case to the United States Supreme Court. As of today, are there five votes of the United States Supreme Court to overturn the Missouri Supreme Court ruling on a referendum, given the voters the right at the midterm to vote up or down on that map in time for 2028?

12:00Michael Popok:I mean, it's a bad sign, I believe, that Kavanaugh did not grant an administrative stay and instead wanted to see full briefing and let the full court decide. Every day that moves closer, an hour under 60 days to the election, the more likely it is that the Supreme Court is not going to act, especially when it comes to a state constitutional referendum. That's a purely political matter. Supreme Court should stay on the sidelines. One way or the other, I'll report on it as the week continues. Hit the free subscribe button. Help us to continue to grow our pro-democracy channel for Workers Unite for Labor Day.

12:39Michael Popok:If you like what we do, hit that subscribe button. Until my next report, I'm Michael Popak. Popak here. When life changes in an instant because of an injury or the bad acts of another, you need fighters in your corner. The Popak Firm is dedicated to helping the injured and their families get justice and the money they deserve. And we don't back down. Contact us today and let's start your fight for justice together. Thank you.