Trump is playing Risk | Lemonade Stand🍋

31:37And it's like, that stat did not exist until Chavez. And it's only reported self-reported by PDVSA. So like, like, uh, people got the stat from OPEC and they asked OPEC, where'd you get it from? Like, we just asked PDVSA and they asked them, they're like, we just sort of had a mandate to say that during, like, they have a lot of oil to get me wrong. But the idea that Venezuela has more than Saudi Arabia is now, it's like, it's probably not brought into question or something. It's brought into question. Like it might have been a bit of an exaggeration for political purposes like that is just stuck around you guys always say i'm the chaotic one i'm riding motorbikes around i'm tossing lemons okay i get a little out of pocket sometimes think about what brandon does he walks in here with his hulking body surely we're breaking some sort of code we're breaking some sort of code in this building this whole place is out of whack and we need something to keep it in order ai powered security expert that scales with you is that about how my large body is where vanta comes in and it couldn't scale with you brandon whether you're a fast-growing startup like cursor or an enterprise like snowflake vanta fits easily into your existing workflows no matter whether you're a huge don't call me a snowflake huge company like hrock you can keep growing a company your customers trust.

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34:38Rapid fire question. What is the most embarrassing subscription you accidentally paid for that you didn't realize? The embarrassing thing is the amount. I have six, this is not a joke. I have like$600 a month in new subscriptions. Dude, what is wrong with that? It is absurd. And like some of them are like Nikkei Asia that I have not read an article from in two years. So Rocket Money is the only thing that helps me out in these situations. I can't track them down. I don't think you're using it. $600? The truth is - I use it. Every time I use it, I end up adding three more. What are you doing? I was using YouTube TV for a long time, which is a pretty expensive subscription.

35:17Finally got rid of it because of Rocket Money. I was like, oh, I'm just pitching$90 away for a service I don't use. Huge savings. Or you could be like Atriac. You could get Rocket Money, have everything hungry in one place. I feel like I have more money to spend on news than subscribe to 10 more things. Then cancel them. If you want to use Rocket Money, you can try rocket money for free at rocket money.com slash lemonade. So, I mean, let's transition this. We're talking about psycho risk. This is Trump strat, right? So not only does he get oil from Venezuela, what are you specifically doing to harm Russia and China?

35:51Like, why does this matter? Right. Which is what we're getting at, which is over the past tennis years, as American companies have stopped buying the oil and it has stopped flowing to America and these sanctions have done damage. Russia and China can then go to Venezuela and buy oil for cheaper, right? Because by definition, in Venezuela is less people to sell to. So it's been great for them. And they've invested a ton. They don't, I looked into this, neither China nor Russia have actual like fully owned companies in Venezuela, but it's part ownership. Like you said, they go in and they do joint ventures and they put a bunch of - Joint ventures, that's the word I was looking at.

36:23Yeah, joint ventures. And now they just can't, like those joint ventures can't send oil out anymore. And so this is a big hit. So if you're - Well, okay. If you're Russia, what are you doing in this game of psycho risk? How do you respond? Okay, I think it's a good question. Let's talk about Russia. so yeah again i'm i'm i think it's a good exercise here if you're listening to try and think about this from the different players on the boards thing without having to be like taking a side yeah i don't i'm not pro-putin and i'm not really pro-trump here i'm not no no i just i want to so here's the thing it is worth saying that all we're going to talk about iran in a second we're talking about greenland and a couple other things it is worth saying that what has been happening in the past, I don't know, few months, maybe a year has been provably bad from the Russia POV.

37:11Russia and their focus on Ukraine, which by the way, as of today is now longer than the Eastern front of World War II. Russia has been spending more time fighting in Ukraine than they did fighting the Nazis in World War II. It's fucking crazy how long this special military operation has lasted, how many people they've lost, how much damage is done to their economy. However, it breaks down. It's been pretty disastrous. doesn't russia say like they have to go and eradicate nazism from ukraine that was it's crazy that there's apparently more nazis apparently they could beat the german nazis more than they could beat the fictional nazis they created in ukraine but uh but russia has had like if you put blue pieces or whatever for for russian pieces we got black ones here yeah um and you spread them out over like syria and all of the in venezuela and uh these these bases that they've had these iran these are all places where russia has invested money weapons investment uh training and every one of them like dominoes has been like weakening or falling as they've focused all of their energy on ukraine they have not been able to supply the support that they used to provide yeah their venezuela piece has been booted out by the u.s that's again same time that's like a big that's the oil tankers we're taking their oil by their tankers by force they can't even get to Venezuela now.

38:30Right. Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, like what actually hurts Russia is if the Venezuela oil is pumped and sold to anybody, it doesn't matter. It's like the whole point is like if the oil price is low, countries like Russia are screwed because they make all their money on a high oil price. So, um, yeah, you don't want the U S to have that point of, of leverage. Right. Yeah. The ability to just flood the market with oil, which again, this is like, this is a unique thing in history because until the shale boom and possibly this venezuela thing america was always a massive net importer they were always like at the mercy of essentially opec and so only in recent years has it been like they can kind of stand on their own wasn't that from an american pov there was another that was another part to the oil too right it's a that so venezuela has all of this heavy crude oil that we happen to have the facilities in the u.s to refine.

39:22A lot of the refineries in the U S are built to refine that type of heavy crude oil. The shale oil that we produce kind of in recent history is like a lighter, like a lighter crude oil that gets refined elsewhere in the world. There's different supply chain to refine that type of stuff is in other countries, notably in China, in Japan, in other parts of Asia. So like you, you don't have full control over the supply chain of like how the oil is refined and created. And it's also to a degree, some of the places that refine it are within other spheres of influence, right? So either within China's like sphere of influence or directly in China, physically closer to it, I mean, or literally closer to Russia in places like Estonia, for example uh so the u.s gets control of it's it's not just like access to the oil itself but it's like you're removing the pieces of leverage that the other players have on the table to influence you 100 so you can see again i think the big picture i can see the argument and that's why this is made i always have a problem with the chaos and the details and the uh where it breaks You know, you're getting weird because it's never backfired.

40:37I don't understand. He keeps bringing that up. And it's like, I can't think of one time that we intervened. I did get it. It didn't work. I got a huge head injury last year. I don't remember a thing past, I don't know, January of 2024. I can't think of a single time this has backfired. Let's go to where it almost certainly will backfire. And that's Greenland. Because, again, like every day, he's saying more and more concretely we will take greenland no matter what whether it's paying them which i think is what they're hoping to do which is do a big uh ten hundred thousand per person get the greenlanders to vote on it patriot dividend patriot dividend and then they all just go into america but whether he's like really concrete about it and europe is more and more getting forceful about what the fuck are you saying like france came out and said something germany said something the uk said something and the uk keir starmer of the uk has bent over backwards for trump on almost everything like he has done his best to keep this uk us special relationship alive and even he was like that's a line like the greenland thing's a line because it's it's european territory it's part of the use part of nato so here's i'll say it's like if you think about america in this great game of the risk of the world of the risk there's three superpowers it has, right?

41:54Number one, it's got like the best geography, probably in the world. Like it has incredible natural oceans, tons of resources, yada, yada. Number two is it has this incredible network of allies and systems that it set up after World War II that just puts it on top of like most things. Trump just left 80 different organizations in the past six days that were all like international organizations. And if we break NATO, like this entire sphere of connection, I think that whole superpower is gone. And then the third one is just the economy and the military, which is like still intact. So I guess what I'm saying is like, I would like to hear a steel man on why Greenland, especially because if you look into it more, there's already US military bases there.

42:40And Denmark has already agreed. If you want to add more, we're chill. Like what every the national security doesn't make sense. The if you want to mine it or put resources there, they're totally down for that, too. Like you can invest in Greenland. why does it have to be an American flag on it? Why does it have to be owned? And I think Trump answered this in this interview. This is the really long New York Times one, right? Yes. Yeah. Okay, so I want to show you this. This is from that New York Times interview. They asked him why he needs Greenland because I want to do it properly. Really, to me, it's ownership.

43:12Ownership is very important. They asked him the question that I just asked, which is like, why don't you just mine it and put military troops there for everything you need? And he's like, because that's what I feel is psychologically needed for success. I think that ownership gives you a thing you can't do, whether you're talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements you can't get from just signing a document that you can have a base. Psychologically important to you or to the United States. Psychologically important for me. So maybe another president would feel differently, but so far I've been right about everything.

43:40I think Greenland's fucking crazy, man. I don't get it. I don't get it. I love the follow-up. And would you use military force to get that? Trump, I didn't say that. you said that i'm asking you would you yeah i wouldn't comment on that i don't think it'll be necessary i don't know man it doesn't it doesn't seem necessary i would get it it would make a little more sense if greenland was alaska and you're like we want something that's right next to russia and alaska and russia are right we are right next to russia and like that i would kind of get of like wanting to make sure you have control of you know bases that are right next to Russia at the western side.

44:20But this is right next to Russia too, right? It's all at the top of the world. Yeah, I guess so. It literally is. I think that's the big question is this is all packed in at the top of the world. There are military reasons for doing this. There's reasons to control these shipping lanes in the Arctic that are going to open up as more and more of the ice melts. You know, shoutouts climate change. Shoutouts to opening the shipping lanes up there. You just look, there is a lot, lot more space between Greenland and Russia than Alaska and Russia. But it is all there's a really good, I've watched it twice actually.

45:00It's funny, I watched it last year and I watched it again recently, but there's a really good Wendover video about this, about like the basically the scale of like military capabilities in the area from Russia and what the US has available to them and like why the US wants to build military capabilities in Greenland. I think what you're saying is that a lot of the ways they would want to compete militarily or develop things militarily could just be done by saying, Hey, Denmark, can we build this out in Greenland? Which is what they did in like after or around World War II with like Denmark's already said they're open to it.

45:37We could go to them and say, Hey, we're allies. This thing with Russia and China, who are especially Russia, you don't like Russia, Denmark. We don't like Russia. Let's increase our capabilities in Greenland. We already have a military base there that's staffed with soldiers right now we could add another one or we could expand it Denmark will be down but there's like a need from this president to like put a flag on it and make it he wants the big I mean it keeps posting the image of the America that's like extra big and I think it's going I think this is doing this insane thing that you're talking about it's like you're slowly losing one of your superpowers which is these deep ties and alliances to like the rest of the world that you've developed over so long and now we're in a place where in In December, Denmark officially labeled the U.S.

46:21as like a potential security threat, like as a country. It's like you'd say, they're both in NATO. They're both in NATO. And I also just, so I really wanted to talk to people who live in Greenland before this episode. And unfortunately, the ways I was trying to contact people, I hadn't get ahold of anybody in time. I was able to contact a handful of Danish people that I'm friends with, and one of whom has like closer ties to green uh family in greenland but i haven't interviewed anybody who lives in greenland yet but it's interesting hearing like the danish perspective on this which is that there's this increasing like the there's always been like a haha funny like look what america is up to attitude especially from young people but from danes broadly there and i've experienced that firsthand just like visiting and talking it like people whether they be young or old or whatever, right?

47:14But it's turning into this like more this like, ha ha, but it's like maybe not that funny now between people when they talk about it. This uncomfortable feeling that something is coming to a head and also Danish people confronting a history with Greenland that they never really had to before. I think one thing interesting, one of my close friends mentioned was he felt like in school in Denmark, you never really learn much about Greenland. even though it's a part of the kingdom of Denmark. But he even learned about things in the US, like the ramifications of Jim Crow laws. But he barely learned about Greenland.

47:57And he was remarking on how insane that is, but how that's a very shared Danish experience of feeling like you don't actually know that much. And while Greenlanders are caught in the middle who generally have this feeling of, we don't want to be fucked with by the US, but they're also going through a time period where they kind of want independence from Denmark with some asterisk on it. People broadly want independence from Denmark. Like I think over 80 % do, but a huge chunk of that 80 % only want independence if it comes with like no large economic ramifications, which there are most certainly going to be because the amount of like funding and support that comes from Danish tax dollars.

48:43So there's a bit more of a controversy to it. And it also puts Greenlanders in a weird spot, right? Where this outside force is constantly threatening you and you have to play nice with the defense from Denmark that you're actually trying to space yourself away from and you probably want independence from in the long run and also economically supports you. You just want to live your own life, develop your own economy, have your own sense of like national identity, like you largely already do in so many respects and you're caught between, you know, the world's number one superpower probably and you're, you know, effectively colonizer in a historical context and you have to like pick a side because everybody's like fighting over you.

49:34It sounds, from the loose description of Greenlandic feelings that I got through these people, from the people that they know in Denmark, I understand that this is a chain of hearsay. It's that people feel very trapped and want everybody to fuck off, but there's no way of having that happen, and you're caught at the center point of this giant political battle. Real quick, do you guys know, so I hear about the importance of the Northwest Passage and the Arctic Circle, particularly in the context of global warming, causing more of it to be accessible, but why would that be such an important route anyway?

50:11Like we, you know, if you think about it from the American or Canadian perspective, you can sail from the east coast of America to Europe. You can sail from the west coast of America. My understanding is there's some pretty open or ones that melt a little more. There's some pretty insane faster trade routes, especially to rising places in Asia through the Arctic Circle. Secondly, the the lowering ice levels is revealing like massive amounts of rare earth minerals. so it's like just becoming like a the arctic is like a is this a race right now because it's an area nobody cared about and now it's like oh this is actually really valuable the routes are valuable the the minerals are valuable etc a bunch of stuff is like a bunch of the minerals or like resources available in greenland right now are financially difficult to access like you couldn't even necessarily profitably take a lot of the resources that are available in greenland but presumably at some point in the future you'll be able to yeah uh i uh i will say one thing that do you ever you talk to the friends that from around the world who like it kind of sucks for the last like 10 plus years i feel like they're always like what the fuck are you guys doing over there it's kind of a bad feeling to have everybody feel that way all the time it doesn't mean like they're always right you know but i i do get that sense of uh it's you know even having these conversations with danish friends they're like you guys are psychos right now like what is happening oh my my friend so the the contact that's trying to introduce me to somebody in greenland his like screening question was like what side is he on like is he like a normal guy because if he's you know if he's on the on the trump in the trump camp like he doesn't want to talk to me which i totally you took off your manga and i took off my manga i don't know how i took a selfie and i said kamala 2028 that's what i said uh but i and it is a frustrating feeling what if he's a trumper did you ask whether he's in support of this or not actually i picked it and i guessed wrong coincidentally you didn't get the interview he's a green liner who wants the u.s to come in i i get that and i do that's that's a i mean you have a lot of european friends that's a very european uh thing i will say like i feel like if you you know i'm reading a lot of european sources that are saying like some of this stuff is like a little time delayed like you know the afd is about to be the biggest party in germany the rn's about to be the biggest party in france maloney just wanted it like it's not like maybe they're not as crazy as maca but it's there's a trend that's happening in europe as well that i think is being uh i think they're like willfully ignoring it to just focus on america i think i get what you're saying it's not that they're maybe this isn't a great example but it's kind of like how like like boris johnson was leading the uk for a long time and he was seen as like the uk's trump or whatever yeah but boris johnson talked about how he didn't like Trump all the time.

53:15It's like, I think there's this collective idea that like, it's not just that we're doing right-wing or like left-wing politics. Everybody's like, you guys have a psycho. But Boris Johnson is like, he's not really a Trump, right? No, I don't think he is. I don't, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that I think - Like a Nigel Farage, mate. Like there's like these parties that are coming up that are way more like, I don't know what the word is, but like they're MAGA. Like they're more like nationalistic. They're more, uh, and so I don't, I think Boris Johnson was more of like the center left, center, right back and forth.

53:49I, yeah. Tomala Mitt Romney. I mean, maybe they're on a trajectory too, but it's, it's like even talking to my, even talking to the one Venezuela friend last week, right. Who had very pro things to say about the U S and even Trump in the specific instance of his, like of progress as he's seen or the hope of progress for his country. that was off the back of him complaining about Trump in a bunch of different ways for the way that you know immigration is being managed and the consequences that Venezuelans and many other people across Latin America like face in the United States right and or even when I people the more limited number of friends in like Asia or like Australia like they're maybe you're right maybe we're just on a trajectory of them to like catching up with the chaos at some point It just, it feels like I've slogged through a decade of the world collectively pointing their finger at me.

54:46Yeah, he's uniquely chaos. I mean, the last two weeks are crazy. Like, he captured the president of a country we're not at war with, and now he's threatening. I mean, this is going way beyond what the normal. I feel like Trump chaos can large, in many ways, be defined as like a lot of crazy talk, and then not always backed up by action, probably more often than not. Now, this term has been way different. And then this term's been crazy. and then this year is is nuts like this is the two this in greenland and venezuela in the span of a week is fucking crazy and now that he's talking i mean we'll get to iran but he's talking about how the military will intervene if they keep cracking down on protesters like are we about to get into like three different conflicts anyway uh-oh look who's doubling up it's aiden doing two quo ad reads in a couple weeks and you know why it's because everybody that he works with in his life needs to use this software.

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57:45Let's go to Iran because it reminds me, what you just said about your friend in Venezuela reminds me, I've been talking to two people in Iran during what's going on right now and a couple people who live here who have family there. And I'll just give the broad overview here, which is that, you know, we talked about the whole history of Iran on this podcast before and how we, you know, with the U.S. doing almost Great Britain's bidding to cause the initial

58:13revolt that took out Mohammed Masadeh and led to the Ayatollahs taking over, okay? So the Ayatollahs have ruled Iran for a long time. And I'll just say, much like Venezuela, it's been horrible. It's been a very badly run country, right? Economically, it's done very poorly, very repressive. People aren't generally happy. The average person is not very happy. And they've had a lot of protests and riots and many revolutions escalating over the past few years. The most recent one in 2022 and 2023 was because a woman got executed in police custody for not wearing the face covering correctly. And there was a massive nationwide protest that got pretty big.

58:56People thought it was going to be a thing. But this is, as my friend told me, every single time they try, the reality of the ground is that the Ayatollahs and the government has the weapons. They have the guns and they win. And they wait it out and they use the power they have and the protest ends. This time around, it is a little bit different, primarily because this one kicked off because the economy has gotten to a point of true disaster, which is recently, I guess in the past year, you could say the Iranian real has gone from like, I don't know, 50 ,000 to a dollar to like 1.5 million. Like the value of the currency has turned to ash.

59:38And so this kicked off, this protest around kicked off, not from any like massive political movement. It started because all of the people in the center of the city, like the markets just started shuttering their shops and getting angry because they could not profitably, they couldn't sell anything. The prices were changing minute to minute. Like they could not sell food, everything in Iran, especially most things that are due with food, like let's say milk, water, a lot of things are imported. And when your currency collapses, the importing cost goes to the moon. You can't get anything. And so, you know, there's like been political revolutions in a lot of countries and they go one way or another.

1:00:15But usually when you get to the point of financial collapse. Like that is the end times for a lot of regimes in history. So this has ended up being a massive, massive protest. You could call it a revolution. Like it's become huge. It's spread across to like dozens of cities all over Iran. When did this start? This has been going on for like a week, two weeks, three weeks? I feel like around two weeks maybe. I know it's like ramping up in intensity rapidly, but it feels like it was in the last week that people started to talk about this and be like, wait, these protests are big. This is a big, big thing going on.

1:00:51They've gotten very big. And it's interesting. So one of the people I talked to is the first guy to reach out to me. And I got their passports and everything to confirm. Why'd you move everything? We can't have the Chinese pieces be. Oh, I see. Oh, okay. All right. All right. All right, sure. We're going to change. Sure. I'm listening. Okay. So I talked to the guy in the country and he had a very similar thing to what you said on your guy. You know, Russia has a lot of Asian roots too. I think we got a small... I had to change it. I had to change it. Sorry, go ahead. Go ahead, Jock. We'll replace them with blue dice.

1:01:32Here we go. There we go. We're going to roll dice and see what happens because this is happening live. I just want to say, this is happening live. The currency went to shit. People are protesting. uh, at the same time, the Iranian government, uh, they were, they used to be doing like food subsidies. So like, if you were going to buy water or milk or food, they would give you the preferential exchange rate, which is like a fake number they made up to change your dollars to or change your dollars. But they stopped doing that because they couldn't afford to keep doing it because the currency gotten so bad.

1:02:05So they canceled it. Once they canceled it, the riots really kicked off. This has gone crazy. So my guy in the country, he said similar things to your people in Venezuela, which is like, they want Trump insofar as he is useful to them. You know what I'm saying? Like they don't, they don't, whatever they feel about America, they're like in the media term, my greatest enemy is the Ayatollah who is bankrupted my country. And so they would like, I mean, well, from his POV, he would like Trump to help in some way or someone to come in and help because this is where it gets a little more serious. And I don't want i don't have the footage i need to review it more but the general idea is that right now like in the past three days it has reached a point where they're now like open firing on protesters and i don't have a body count and no one has a verified one but it's like a lot of people dead like a lot like uh the latest was minimum hundreds yeah 500 and i've heard it could go into like he is claiming higher and so and some of the footage he sent me which again i have to spend more time I'm verifying is like horrifying.

1:03:07So there's, there's clearly like a brutal crackdown going on to shut down this protest, but they haven't done anything to make the economy better in any way. Like it, it is a, it is a, an untenable position. So what happens next? I don't know. Trump. And again, like I said with Venezuela, it's tough for me, even hearing all this to think it's a good idea for us to get involved in the Middle East again in a military way. It is just so often ended in disaster. So often we don't do it for good reasons. And like, you know what I'm saying? Like, but. This is at the point where Trump has said help is on its way.

1:03:48He said this an hour ago. Help is on its way. Keep protesting Iranian patriots. Take over your institutions. This is one hour ago. Oh my God. So we're like, this is a lot. Like tomorrow we could have a different story. But I will say that 24 hours ago, the guy I know that's in the country was telling me how, because he, I saw, I traced his excitement level. He was getting really excited. He was like, things might actually change. And then 24 hours ago, he was getting like immensely depressed. He was like, I think this is going to end the way the other ones did. brutal crackdown they're going to kill a bunch of people and nothing's going to change so he is like desperately asking so i don't know i don't have a i don't know where i stand on this other than that i massively against the ayatollah of iran like that's uh but that's where we're at that that is where we're at and and so if you did this if you didn't want to zoom out and not be on such a local level on a geopolitical level iran is the key to the massive strait of hormuz which just like where a ton of global trade goes through.

1:04:47They can mine it up. And it's where China gets all of its oil from, that through that straight. It is incredibly important in this like Putin, G, Trump game of risk. If Iran were to flip or to have a government that is more pro-West, it would be drastically different. So I assume, based on what happened in Venezuela, that any extra money in Russia or in China is like, they don't want anything to change. Yeah. This is what's so baffling to me about the Greenland thing. The Greenland thing is not time sensitive. It's pissing off all of our allies, but at least there's some logic in psycho risk of taking Venezuela and booting Russia and China out.

1:05:25There's logic in supporting Iran so that you can boot China and Russia out and have like this massive leverage you control on the oil supply globally. Right. That's that in theory, if everything goes perfect, it's a huge deal, but like why Greenland? But anyway, yeah, this is also just looking at the most recent numbers, human rights activists uh a human rights activist news agency is saying at least 2 000 people have died in the protests so far um and then another group is saying more than 6 000 but obviously you're not going to get completely accurate numbers i think i think this is something that could change very quickly after we record this like literally by tomorrow and the next day it could be dramatically different it could be i think military action maybe with to answer your question.

1:06:10This is a guess, right? Because these are difficult questions as we try to figure them out together and gain even a semblance of understanding of how this stuff all works. I feel like in Greenland's case, if you're at a time where this feels politically possible as Trump and you think this is beneficial, it could just be the psychological reason that he described right uh but if greenland is on this trajectory to kind of become its own independent place like free of denmark's oversight then you're losing your potential line to approval of all the actions that you want to take in greenland like you may no longer get that approval of military bases or the mining you want to do down the line uh that denmark might be willing to allow because that place is seeking independence.

1:07:10So you want to grab it for your own before that comes to fruition. That's just a guess. Yeah, maybe that's P.O.B. I think he legitimately wants the map to look. You know what I'm saying? He legitimately just wants the map. He probably looked at the wristboard and Greenland is part of America in the wristboard. It's a little closer. And to be fair, when I was a kid, when I was a kid and I looked at the map, I was like, Greenland looks like it's part of North America. Yeah. I did have that thought as a child. And Trump wrote that down and said, that is my future policy. He locked that in. No, it's crazy.

1:07:49I do think it is, of all three, the most... I'm kind of against all of them. Except for maybe... Listen, if I could trust that Trump was not a fucking psycho, I could say, like, if you were at close ties with, let's say, the UN, and Europe, and you had these institutions we built after World War II, you could have a coalition that's like, hey, I think we all agree what's going on in Iran is a problem and we're going to send some people in to help try and protect these protesters or whatever. There's something you could get where it feels like more of a global united front. But because of what he's done in Venezuela and possibly in Greenland, it feels way more self-serving, even though I do think what has happened to the people protesting, I mean I mean I have kind of a question in a more of a feeling about this because I feel like as in my position that's all I really can do right I can try to figure out and understand why these things are happening and then I I feel a way about it I do you guys think like when I look at Iran and I look at the way that people are going to suffer and die there in this potential transition of power.

1:09:05I think there is something about, oh, if you have the capacity to help those people, then you should. But my difficulty with this stuff is, it's very clear that we're not, the US doesn't intervene because of altruism. Right. There are reasons that we choose to take actions in specific places to benefit some sort of larger outcomes or gains or whatever, right? And because of that being the reason we choose to do things, I don't have faith in the execution of how that help is brought about. We seem to, in any time where that help is being offered, there seems to be a lot of externalities that often come at the expense of the people that we were supposedly helping in the first place.

1:09:59And I don't have faith in that action being taken in the best interests of those people. So I'm scared to be supportive of it being offered. even when something like this is happening. I feel like morally conflicted about that because I don't like, dude, like just because you woke up and you were born in Iran and you've lived your life there and you want more freedom around your life, like you, you know, the government gets to shoot you in a protest. That's fucked up. I don't want that to happen to anybody. Have you guys like weighed that at all? I don't. yes i'm wondering when i'm talking to this guy i'm weighing it because he is the guy i'm talking and i'm talking to two people and they have different opinions one of them is more measured but the guy that i'm talking to the most he's he's like explicitly like we just need the help like he is he is desperate for someone from the outside to come in because they have all the weapons and he is tired of living in uh deteriorating living standards every you know what i'm saying like and it's tough for me to weigh how i feel i don't know exactly how i feel on it because, um, because of actions in the past and I've seen how it goes, like I've seen how it goes.

1:11:13Yeah. That's the, that's the problem for me is the intention is almost is less relevant, right? Whether it's actually for oil or actually to help people or what the percentage is, it's just that in our lifetime, you know, all three of us, when we were kids, nine 11 happened and then we were just in Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years, we blew trillions of dollars on it that we collectively are gonna have to pay in debt and nothing fucking good happened out of it i'm sure there is some good that happened but like man it just feels so unbelievably wasteful and destructive not just to america but obviously the people there got fucking bombed and died and had everything destroyed around them and our track record is just so bad that it's so hard to be like ah this will be the one yeah iran this will be the one it's not going to be like syria it's not going to be like Palestine.

1:12:00It's not going to be like Iraq. It's not going to be like Afghanistan. Don't worry. This one's going to be easy. It's like, dude, I don't know, man. And it's not to say that I'm sure it would, I think it would be naive of me to say that there's probably no learned lesson or shift in approach to like how things are approached back then versus now. Right. It's even shown in something like a mind like Venezuela. It wasn't, we didn't just go and invade it's like we it was captured the president and his wife 80 people died 80 people died yeah but and uh but you know compared to iraq very you know very different like start to it or whatever you want to say right or even compared to you know you know panama like decades before that was like i think hundreds or a thousand people died like when we when we did that operation in panada Panama, I can't remember.

1:12:56I'm not saying this and that magically makes it a giant ethical step up. I'm just saying I sit in this world of conflict. It's like it's like me passing by if I walk just at a very basic remove the Psycho game of risk from the table and I walk by somebody who's drowning and they can't swim and I can help them and I jump in I jump in with and you notice the oil in their pocket and then and then I find that they have oil in their pocket and I say oh wow, Chevron's still with you too. That's kind of wild. And then I didn't even know that. But it's the basic idea of like, you're over there like struggling or drowning or whatever.

1:13:36I'm going to go fucking help you. I'm going to go help you. I feel like I'm reading a book right now that's basically all about this. It's Humankind by Rutger Bregman. It's an amazing book. It's one of my favorite books I've read in the past 12 months. And most of us feel that way. It's a book about how most of us feel that way all the time in all of our interactions with other people. Like, that's the reality. But that's not how this works. It's like there's all these other reasons and means, and it's like we're actually leaving, we're willing to leave people behind if it accomplishes certain ends or like what somebody deems to be the greater good.

1:14:12And then I feel bad for being the person that's like, sorry, friend in Iran that's messaging Atriarch, I don't think we can help you. Figure it out. Like, I feel bad saying that. but I also don't want to be like it's also worth noting that none of us are making this choice like this is going to be I know the weight of the world is not on me but it's this it's this idea of like I'm American I'm a part of this country I in so many ways I'm still proud to be one you know I I acquired my citizenship I'm proud to be American a bunch of different ways this is hard to I feel almost obligated to have an opinion about it because it's my country choosing to do it.

1:14:57Even if I didn't vote for the guy, even if I don't want him to be in power, it's, I have all of these mixed emotions about it. Your tax dollars fund the military, which is able to make the decision, right? Like we are involved in this weird way. It's weird, man. It's sad. It's weird. Like, it's like, it's like having like, I'm standing next to, maybe I'm a child who can't swim and I'm holding hands with like my dad who definitely could jump in the save the guy. But my dad's kind of like let a bunch of people drown in the past. But I know he definitely could go fish him out. He pulls him out in the mumps, though.

1:15:33My dad has a terrible track record. It's awful. He's like one for 19 on saving lives. But the guy drowning right now is like, give me the chance, give me the chance. I'll take the odds. I'll take your fucking asshole dad, please. Please. I know he's going to rob me, but just come in and... Yeah. I mean, that's what I would say. I just like most things, I think the idea is so much less important than the execution. We just, we have a execution is everything like doing something right. Yeah. That, that I think is what I come back to is like for the many criticisms you have of Trump, he just does not execute things well.

1:16:10And the oil stuff that I, we started this off with, I think is a great example of that where there is no fucking plan. The oil, there's nothing, there's conflicting information all the time. It's not clear what's going on. He's saying there's deals. He's telling people to commit. and none of it's concrete. It's just this, it's just talk. And so it's just, it's really hard beyond all the normal, you know, Trumpisms. It's really hard when he right now is showing just an inability to make concrete things happen. Yeah, it is funny that like, there's all of this baggage with it just from like a country perspective, right?

1:16:40But then you have a president who I would say uniquely stands out of someone who gives like inconsistent answers to questions, deliver all the time with incredible inconsistency. None of the, like tariffs is like his big thing. has done so many awful things like uh okay i i want to bring this to one so the third player that we haven't talked about we did about china that much is madagascar so what are they going to do if i ran false yes yes well you told me you never played risk you don't know i don't know how this game australia and madagascar and oh the islands are the best because you just all your troops yeah i think we're not talking about australia and i think during all this chaos around the world.

1:17:19They've been biding their time. They've been building. Oh, you think Australia's good? I think Alba over in Australia is setting up for a little bit of a world domination that we're not leaving off the books. Alba and friendly Jordi. They've been eyeing Madagascar. So keep an eye on Madagascar and Perth Australia because we're sensing some stuff there. But Iran. So here's you know, if you're playing 3D chess as Trump and all this works out and as you mentioned if Iran regime is toppled it is more Western friendly. This part of the world which has been beneficial to and supported by russia particularly in china i'm actually not exactly sure china's involvement with iran but russia very much so and if that gets pulled off the board and russia now loses that piece and china loses that piece after losing venezuela that does feel like a big fucking deal what do you feel like china's view of what is happening in the world is right now there's i i tried to look into like if there's any real quotes The only one I could find, Ministry of Commerce from China said on Thursday that no nation has the right to interfere with economic and trade cooperation between China and Venezuela, which he said is between two sovereign states and protected by international and domestic laws.

1:18:27So he's stating like, look, things should be normal, right, Trump? And I don't think Trump's going to go for that personally. What do you all feel about China? Yeah, I mean, one thing Trump did say in his press conference is that he will not interrupt the flow of oil from Venezuela to China because that would have escalated this into a... Wait, I thought he is explicitly doing that. No. I thought that we're taking the tankers there. Is Russia, it's just Russia? So it's Russia, and I think maybe it's like the tankers in the short term are being, we're taking them, we're selling them, we're putting them in a bank account.

1:18:56But the general idea is that Venezuela will be a certain part of China's oil mix that is going to continue. He is not interrupting that. okay yeah that's a big difference then because just again as a reminder china has invested insane amounts of money in venezuela they're still owed a lot of money back and the way they get paid back is through oil that has been their their deal for two decades so yeah i think not doing that is a huge world war three-esque escalation that's what i thought it was good okay he was like that's good that it's at least for now i think rubio made sure he said the second I think it was a bit important.

1:19:31That's good because, yeah, that's full-on war starting stuff. And the same thing with Iran. I assume same kind of thing. Like, well, you know, the dream outcome is that, like, it's a regime change into a real election, into a country that is working with China and the – you know what I'm saying? It's just like a country that is working for its own interests and not – so we don't know. But I think from China's POV, and I was reading a lot about this, because they're very, they don't say anything. Like they, their actions have been zero on all of this stuff. They've been doing nothing other than, you know, put out a condemn, they put out like a, we condemn this message.

1:20:12They just talk. But I think they're just like, their strategy has always been like, do nothing, win, right? They would wait and see. I think China's waiting and see. And maybe this stuff goes badly. And it's, you know, like, I'll give you an example. is one of the things that took down the Soviet Union was Afghanistan. Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and got stuck there for a decade, decade plus. They lost a ton of money and time, much like we did. And it bled them dry. And it's one of the big reasons that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. And there's a real thought, I think, in some of these circles on China, like that Venezuela is gonna end up being not a good thing.

1:20:49Like it's gonna be a quagmire. We're gonna have to do a lot of, we're gonna throw money and time and effort and interest at it while they get to condense their, like, I think the idea of regional spheres, even though Trump is saying it in the stupid Donald Doctrine, is like agreed upon by Putin and Xi and him. They all see it the same way. China's way more concerned with like putting more pressure on Japan, getting more control over East Asia, like feeling like they're the regional hegemon. Putin is way more concerned with Ukraine and Europe. And it remains to be seen because it's kind of, I thought it seemed like Trump was retreating to this side of the board.

1:21:23But it kind of feels like he still wants everything. Like he still is like saying, you can't do shit about Taiwan. We're going to take, we're going to intervene in Iran. We're going to intervene in Greenland. It feels like he kind of still wants the whole board, but also is like definitely this. That's the vibe I'm getting. So I don't know. But I don't think that China is incredibly pressed. Yeah. I mean, they haven't said anything official that I could find. But if you ask the question of does all this involvement, these changes, does it affect whether China would want to go and take Taiwan? And I think most people would agree that China is probably more cautious about taking Taiwan because Trump has shown he is willing to do stuff.

1:22:04Like he's willing to do things. I mean, this Venezuela thing is crazy. Talking about taking Greenland by force from NATO is fucking crazy, right? And so in theory, I think there's a lot more danger to the Taiwan situation where it's never been clear if the US would actually put boots on the ground defend Taiwan, right? Or put more boots on the ground. Yeah, we still haven't said that either, right? We've never said that. Oh, man. It's all implied. It's all the doublespeak. Yeah, it's all doublespeak. I don't know. I guess I might say the opposite, which is like from China's POV, it feels like the U.S.

1:22:39might be overstretched. You know what I'm saying? And then without, especially if the Greenland thing happens or in any form of way, like without the European backing, I don't know. Is Trump really going to send U.S. troops to defend Taiwan if there was a... You know what? That leads to a great news story from this past week. Right now, we spend$900 billion on our military. This is up from$600 billion about a decade ago. We spend a lot of money on the military. We spend more than the next nine biggest countries combined. And so So Trump has requested that right now, up until this October in 2026, $900 billion is what's been allocated and approved by Congress.

1:23:20Trump is saying that for next year, starting in October,$1.5 trillion. Sheesh! So we just increase it by about 60%. Gold rim tanks. And this will allow us to build the, in quotes, dream military that we have long been entitled to. And more importantly, that will keep us safe and secure regardless of foe. Trump said that the, quote, tremendous income brought in by tariffs would allow for this spending while paying down the national debt and giving a substantial dividend to moderate income patriots. The tariffs, just as a side note, have brought in about$200 billion in revenue through 30th of September, according to the U.S.

1:23:59Treasury. I think he missed a zero. I think he missed a zero. Because there's no way. Might have been too cheap. Because like you said, I mean, this is part of the New York Times interview too. They asked him, like, all right, you said we're going to cut the national deficit. Right. So the deficit is about$2 trillion, although maybe it's only going to be$1.6 trillion. So, okay. And he said, you're going to give$2 ,000 checks to every American. How much is that? Quite a bit. $300 million times$2 ,000. I opened up ChatGPT to multiply. I'm so brain-wrotted. Jesus Christ. So that's quite a bit of a chunk of change right there.

1:24:36He said, there's actually blanking, but there's like five other things. Basically, the point of this interview was like, we're going to list all these things you said are paid for. Only 600 billion to give everybody a$2 ,000 check. It'll be lower than 300 million. 600 billion. We pay off that. So we're talking just with that and deficit. We're talking like 2.3 trillion. Okay. And then we're going to up our military budget by 600 billion. So we're looking at about$3 trillion. Yeah. Yeah. And remember that the idea of the tariffs when originally proposed is that they will cause manufacturing to move here.

1:25:10So eventually people shouldn't be paying them. It's like they shouldn't be. If they're getting paid, it's just a tax. Right. The idea is that it's supposed to encourage people to not pay them. So they go. So I just I'm getting the sense that this tariff cookie jar is not only long empty, but he keeps pretending to reach in there and every new policy idea. I mean, if this year we get 15 times the tariff revenue of last year, the math works. You're right. God willing. God willing. And I imported a lot of Doug Doug mug mugs. Yes. And I do remember that. I forgot about that. I'm doing my part. I think you bought one destroyer.

1:25:50I got lucky. I dodged the 100 % tariff. For those who don't remember, I bought$100 ,000 of mugs to sell as merch. And then right afterwards, Trump announced a 100 % tariff from China. And I was like, oh shit, because they're made in China because it's the customized things in the specialized factory. And I thought I was going to. What happened? Well, so they remember. So they canceled it. They Xi and Trump met in, I believe, October 31st. My mugs were arriving. The mugs was top of the agenda. Yeah, mugs were arriving. This is in Seoul. This is during the APAC, I believe, summit. so and this this was one week before my mugs were coming into the country and if he didn't lower the tariffs i was fucked and they lowered as a 30 percent a big chunk of change yeah no i unironically i had to pay a bunch of money for for tariffs um i believe the amount i paid was something like 195 billion oh my god yeah you were most of it this year it was a big it's crazy if trump saw that He was like, let's increase the military.

1:26:55Let's give out checks. We just need a few more YouTubers to pay to buy. I think if Logan Paul finally put his money where his mouth is on those Maverick shirts. Has anybody checked on Logan Paul? And if he paid the tariff on the Maverick shirts last year, I think that's where we could find some revenue. That could be a lot. There was, I mean, well, you got anything. I got a question. Tell me. Maybe it's what you're going to. Yeah. I want you to tell us about JP. JP, from my understanding, JP did something monumental. He hit the timeline. He posted on X. He did hit the timeline. He's like, these are dire times.

1:27:34And I'm posting a Twitter video to explain to the broader public that I'm being politically attacked. I thought it was pretty fire, but also it is unprecedented. It's never happened. We've never had a sitting Fed chair make a message direct to the public saying the president is trying to indict me to get me to lower interest rates, which is crazy. Yeah, that is what's happening. I kind of did a big, I don't want to go too into it, but I'll just say the takeaway since even that clip I recorded is every central banker in the world basically has come out and signed a letter condemning this. I'm talking about everywhere, like all over.

1:28:13And the general sense is that if so much of the world economy is underpinned on trust in the U.S. dollar, and that is trust in the institution of the Federal Reserve. If it is felt that he has kicked out Jerome Powell and put in a toady that'll do whatever he says, it's going to have serious consequences. In fact, a lot of people were saying in the central Maine community that nobody should accept the nomination to replace him in May until this is dropped and figured out. Because anyone who takes the job now would tacitly be saying they are 100 % under his thumb on raising lower insurance. And again, you know, the examples of other countries have done this are like a who's who of destroyed currencies.

1:28:57It is Venezuela. It is Zimbabwe. It is Turkey. Oh, we're coming back to Madagascar. You're hitting the hall of fame. I was like, is he going to say Zimbabwe? These are the all time goats of currencies going to shit. And it is where they take over independent central bank and they make them do whatever they want. And so I don't know. I think it's, I think it's like a, a under discussed story because it's like finance or whatever, but I think it's, it's spooky, but there's some pushback I got on this clip, which is about like the federal reserve is a fucking institutional cabal of the banks and we should get rid of it.

1:29:30And it's like, that's, that's sort of like the Rand Paul, Ron Paul kind of angle. I just want to say, if that is your stance and you are intellectually honest and want to go with that, that's fine but what we're talking about trump is not saying i'm going to prosecute jerome powell to save you from the federal reserve he is saying i would like to get rid of jerome powell so i can keep the federal reserve exactly the same but i own it he is not you know i'm saying nobody it is so intellectually dishonest to be like wow a shrug you're supporting the everything the federal reserve's ever done it's like whatever you're saying is not what we're talking about we're talking about a person trying to put personal control which every time it's been done has ended in economic disaster.

1:30:10So I don't need to be like, you can make a great argument that maybe interest rates should free float based on market demand, and we don't need a federal reserve. You can make that argument, but that is not what Trump is doing. People like put words in his mouth to do whatever fucking idea they're talking about. It's like he's being so clear about what he wants to do, which is replace it with a different Kevin, Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh, who will do what he says and lower them. Kevin James is also on the show. Just a Kevin. is a so so wait was the mall movie the mall cop movie but set in the federal reserve would be actually and he's gonna segue around yeah defend the federal better than communist jerome powell dude like what was i had a comment calling jerome powell a communist he's like you support this communist jerome powell i'm like bro is he like the opposite yes he's my comment he spent his entire it doesn't make any sense even even even if you think even if you were like the type that says american democrats are communists yeah he's voted he's donated to republicans his entire life he's a lifelong republican yeah that's why okay the statement on the federal reserve from all of these previous fed governors and chairman like i gen is beautiful it's a wonderful thing every single one across across like completely bipartisan coming out saying this is a disaster so i i feel like there's real there's real pressure to to like yeah that's what i'll say even uh senate republicans grow a little bit of a spine on trump like tom tillis and uh murkowski from alaska they're all saying they will not vote to confirm any of trump's nominees until this is dropped like this because this is like it's so it's so obviously baseless and i kind of covered in the clip but the idea that like the cost overruns the treasury building is some big scheme by jerome powell to and like you're building a ballroom that is a massive cost overrun it's just it was always 400 million I've been saying he keeps bringing this up he said they keep changing the cost it was always 400 million I knew it was 400 million Doug knew it was 400 million I don't know I would let Jerome Powell spank me you've seen young Jerome Powell silver fox young Jerome Powell was a silver fox young as in like 20 years ago he's 50 but he's got fair enough let's pull it up this is such a throw by trump though this whole thing like he could have gotten away with putting in somebody who's basically going to follow his orders and now everybody's going to be massively critical of it it's a huge throw uh yeah i do think and by the way just to be clear you know we've talked about the whole uh are we really we're pulling okay are we oh i'm sorry audio listeners there's a lemonade man on screen i'm sorry but hot or not yeah he's pretty handsome okay the behind this is the not covering the behind the scenes of why this happened have you guys heard of bill pulte can i pull him up bill pulte is uh the guy he's got the most punchable faces bro bill pulte is the guy uh trump put in charge of housing and he has like this uh almost like a comic like a tom and jerry thing with scott bessett because scott bessett is kind of like the adult in the room for this stuff and bill pulte basically jumps the fence and sneaks into the White House whenever Scott Besson is not looking and brings posters.

1:33:35He's done this like four different times. He brings posters. He convinces Trump of something and it always goes wrong. And Scott Besson gets furious. I'm not kidding. The first example was like the 50-year mortgage where Bill Pulte comes in with a big thing that says 30-year mortgage, great president. 50-year mortgage, greater president or whatever. Like that's when he showed Trump and he got him to fucking do it. And Scott Besson was furious. This sounds like a Tom and Jerry cartoon. That's what I'm saying. So this time around, Bill Pulte somehow finds time with Trump outside of Scott Besson's schedule out of his eyes and convinces him, you need to attack Jerome Powell directly using the legal system.

1:34:07That is the understanding. And now my understanding is from internal leaks or whatever is that Scott Besson is fucking furious because this shakes what little credibility the Fed is going to have with their new appointees. Like, you know, and what I want to say is the markets did not collapse or anything, but in dollar terms, since this happened, this Jerome Powell thing, dollars down, gold is up. And every time something like this has happened, that's the same story. Dollar goes down, gold is up. And it's been a long-term trend, which is like people, whether or not fucking the market goes down or up, people are pulling out.

1:34:42They're finding a risk off from US assets. And we need them to buy US treasuries to keep our fucking debt going. So I will just say, I think this seems like a small event, but it's actually incredibly fucking stupid and I think has long-running effects. And they should drop it immediately. They should listen to every voice that's coming out against it from both sides of the aisle and let Jerome Powell finish out his term, which is ending in May. Yeah, that's what I think. All right. Do you feel like this might, before we wrap it out, might force Trump to re-nominate Jerome Powell? He's now potentially going to receive so much pushback if he does not leave this guy in charge.

1:35:18That would be insane. That would be an incredible outcome. I don't think he'll do it. I did hear a theory that Jerome Powell might not, he'll not be the head of the Federal Reserve, but he'll be one of the Fed governors that can vote or he can step down to that position and he will be what's called a shadow Fed chair where everyone else voting listens to him instead of the actual Fed chair and he can keep them from lowering interest rates. That is like a possibility outcome that could happen that hasn't really happened before. The shadow government. Like, what are we, we're getting to a fucking crazy world, bro.

1:35:49Nick Fuentes is gonna hear this. He's gonna go fucking crazy. Do not say this in front of Nick Ventes. Yeah, yeah. He might actually say something crazy. Yeah, I don't know. We didn't even get to get a lot to a lot of things that we didn't get to cover today, but we might cover them on our Patreon in our next episode. You could go to patreon.com slash lemonade stand where we do an extra hour of the show every week. And we also do a book club, special tier two things. But we did want to cap off this episode with something quick. Yeah. because guys, we got your feedback about the sponsor last week.

1:36:22Uh, in the short term, I want you to know that we dropped that sponsor. And in the longterm, we owe you a deeper explanation of our policies and what we're trying to like actually do with sponsors we're doing here. So we're working on a video that we're going to put up, I think, uh, publicly on Patreon where you can sort of see our full thought process, the rules and guidelines that we have and why we take or don't do certain sponsors. Yeah. Because we do have things. We have a bunch of categories that we said no to going into this. And I think people from last week have this idea that there are no rules or things that we look at when it comes to this.

1:36:53So we want to take the time to, to talk more about it and know that we keep your guys's, that your guys's feedback in mind. And we, we weighed it pretty heavily last week. So that'll be in the near future. But in the meantime, we really appreciate your guys's interest and support in the show. And we'll see you guys in next week's episode. Thanks everybody. Appreciate you. Support for this show comes from The Home Depot. This holiday season, take advantage of savings on the wide selection of top smart home security products at The Home Depot. The Home Depot has everything you need to make your home smarter with the latest technology and products that let you control and automate your home.

1:37:32And with brands you trust like Ring, Blink, Google and more, available in-store and online. Often available with same-day or next-day shipping. so you can protect your peace of mind, whether you're away or at home this season. The Home Depot. Smart Homes start here.

1:38:12We'll see you next time.

1:38:40with 00 % shrimp from Germany. So long enough to install diners. Down to our breakfast!