OpenAI tempers expectations with less bombastic, GPT-5-less DevDay this fall, Prediction: Social media will change in 2025 because of disinformation, and UBI experiment fails

0:00Did you see how OpenAI tempers expectations with less bombastic GPT5 less Dev day this fall? That was actually the headline from TechCrunch. What? Go on. They're pretty much tempering expectations, you know, and, you know, chat, your open AI and chat GPT, they're going to continually make more and more amazing announcements. They're going to continually innovate and develop more great products. But it's, we've had so much rapid development. And dude, you know this, just as every other entrepreneur, when something's newer, it's easier to continually release new products, have more cycles. releases, etc.

0:38But as the team starts growing, the company starts getting older, the code starts getting more bloated and older, you start having things slow down quite a bit. And people just keep expecting more and more from AI at such a fast pace. And it's just like whoa, whoa, whoa. It's evolved at a really rapid rate. It's continually going to evolve at a rapid pace. But people are just expecting announcement after announcement after expecting the next new revolutionary thing that they haven't seen yet. But on that note, funny enough, I think, and this is a prediction, I think social media will change in 2025 because of elections, policies, and disinformation.

1:18It's disinformation everywhere. I mean, there's, you know, on X, there was, you know, the Olympics are happening right now. And, you know, there's this uproar about these two boxers, one's Algerian and one's Taiwanese actually being males that are in a female sport. And actually, so everyone, there's a big uproar. And each of these posts is getting millions and millions of impressions. Like, oh my God, look at the Olympics. They're letting males beat up females, right, in boxing. But the reality is - I saw JK Rowling post about it too. Yeah, yeah. And that got a lot of impressions. But the reality is, no, both of these people are actually female.

1:51Both boxers are actually born female, right? It's just, you know, they will not go into the medical stuff, but that is actually misinformation all the and they're getting millions of views right and so to your point i mean a lot of stuff is you know we're talking about elections we talk about olympics there's disinformation everywhere dude what was funny is on x i saw a lot of posts of someone saying the ex so-and-so of the you know some committee said that one of the boxers was a male so then i copy and paste into google because it kept showing up over and over i'm like why does keep showing up in my feed.

2:27So I copy and paste it. All the search results were just X posts. And I was like, oh, cool. Where did this actually really come from? And I'm not saying someone's a male or a female. I haven't really looked into it or dug into it or anything like that. But the reason I think social media is going to change is if you're having all this misinformation and they're not flagging it because they all say, oh, there's community notes or, oh, you know, on Instagram, we do this on Facebook. A lot of these guys are not actually flagging it, whether there's X, Instagram, Facebook. These posts weren't actually flagged.

2:57And then the other thing too, is I was actually triggered initially. I was like, oh my God, that screwed up. Like, why are they letting males? Like, if I got triggered so quickly, imagine how many people, they're not looking deeper and they stay triggered that way, right? And then I did more research. I was like, oh no, they're actually females. And it was something similar in the UK that's happening right now with all the riots. Oh yeah. There was someone who sadly murdered three children. I think it was three girls. And some of the posts on TikTok and X were saying that they're of a specific race.

3:29So then people came out and religion. They were saying there's specific race and religion. People ended up coming out, starting to protest. The other side ended up protesting as well. And then all of a sudden, the news and the police actually reported, no, they're not of that race and religion. This is what they actually represent. And a lot of people are protesting because of what they saw online. And I think this is going to affect marketing in two big ways. One, you're going to start seeing a lot less views on these social platforms. I think the polarizing content is actually causing traffic spikes.

4:06And you're seeing it in the analytics and the reporting on some of these sites, like SimilarWeb or Elon posting about it, about traffic spikes. I think you're going to start seeing these sites have less overall traffic. And two, they're going to get fined a lot of money. to stop doing this kind of stuff. I think they're going to be regulated. I think this stuff needs to be regulated. Totally agree. And I think this is going to cause a lot of corporations to slow roll their spend. You know, I was in a meeting with someone who is, I won't say where they are, what their company name is, but globally, they're a top 10 spender in advertising.

4:44Literally a top 10 advertiser. Everyone knows the product that they sell. They actually have tons of products. And I was talking to one of the CMOs that... Procter and Campbell. No, I'm not going to say who that is. But I was talking to a CMO who runs a European region, like all of Europe. And this person, I'm not going to say their gender because then you can start Googling it. This person was mentioning how they're going to slowly start weeding off some of these platforms because of this. And they don't want this negativity or this misinformation to impact their brand. And a lot of these corporations are jaded.

5:20As you see them starting to wean off some of these platforms, you're going to start seeing the CPCs substantially get cheaper and it's going to help SMBs. But that's what I really think is going to happen in social media in 2025. And these platforms are doing it to themselves. They choose not to regulate, adjust this information or put community notes. Why? Because they're getting tons of traffic from it, but it's causing issues globally. My guess is this stuff will be regulated in the next couple of years and your prediction will come true. But I do think after, we'll see where AI takes us with technology.

5:55But I think then it'll actually get to a spot where the community notes can happen real time and quickly. They can verify things and maybe remove things quickly. So we'll see what happens because there's just too much money being made by these platforms. They need to protect their platforms. I think they're all in a bad spot right now. It's funny, I was telling Brad, but one of my, you talk about people polarizing content, right? So I had a polarizing piece of content published. It has like 2.5 million views on my reels right now. And there's like 10 ,000 comments. It's men fighting women. It's like, yeah, it's all purely men versus women.

6:27And the women are like, you guys are misogynists. And the men are like, you know, I don't like your tone or whatever, right? And it's just like, that's how this stuff grows. I got to take a minute to tell you about the agency owners association This is a peer group for agency owners think ypo or eo, but for agency owners And I just wanted to read you a couple of testimonials So this first one comes from carrie and we asked her. What do you like most about the group? She said having a group of people to discuss and bounce ideas. The leads are great too Yes, we share leads in this group as well.

6:58This one from alien He says the ability to really post whatever I want and need and the group responds great experience members getting a lot of insights from conversations with other members, getting a lot of value from sessions from Eric, getting advice from others as well. And so if you want to grow your agency faster and you want a peer group to do so, just go to marketingschool.io slash agency. This is a group that both Neil and I created. And our hope here is to create a vibrant community of agency owners and do a lot more with it in the future. So again, marketingschool.io slash agency, and we'll see you inside.

7:28But can we talk about something that's separate from marketing? This is a more general topic. Sure, go for it. All right. So you know the UBI experiment, universal basic income? Did you read about how it failed? I didn't know about the UBI experiment. So the UBI experiment, basically it was a test to see how people would behave if you gave them extra money versus not. And so basically, it says, this tweet over here, the result of the largest American controlled experiment in universal basic income, UBI, was released. You haven't heard about it because the findings are terrifyingly bad. So by the way, Andrew Yang campaigned on this.

8:04Like I'm going to give everyone like an extra thousand bucks or whatever, right? And we kind of did this in COVID, the stimmy checks, right? So it was funded by the founders of ChatGPG. Oh, I didn't know that. So Sam Altman, I guess, presumably to mitigate the potential job losses anticipated through AI and AGI. So 1 ,100 randomized households making under$29 ,000 a year were given$1 ,000 per month for three years. Essentially, their income increased by 40%. The UBI participants lived in urban, suburban, and rural towns in Texas and Illinois. Result one, UBI experiments ended, participants ended up earning$1 ,500 less despite being given$12 ,000 more annually.

8:42For every$1 received, total household income dropped by at least$0.21. What do you think about that? So they got more lazy and they just worked less because they were given free money. It seems so, but let's continue on here. So result two, UBI participants stayed unemployed for an extra month compared to those unemployed in a control group. So you're saying they got lazier, right? Result three, UBI participants work less and there were no substantive changes in quality of employment. UBI participants did little to improve their education or training to improve their income. Result four, UBI participants self-reported increased rates of disability to limit the work they can do.

9:24So two ways to look Look at these results. The American underclass is so worn down that when thrown a life preserver, they can only float rather than paddle to safety. UBI advocates will argue that$1 ,000 per month was not enough. Or universal basic income and the collectivist derivatives are never enough. Work is intrinsically tied to human dignity, happiness, and progress. So in other words, it says over here, it gets a little political. According to Ronald Reagan, when he accepted the 1980 GOP nomination, work and family are at the center of our lives, the foundation of our dignity as a free people.

9:58When we deprive people of what they have earned or take away their jobs, we destroy their dignity and undermine their families. Ronald Reagan. Totally agree with that. You want to know my solution to make it better for people who are making less money? What? I'm not an economist. I'm not a politician. So that's my disclaimer. I have no stats on data on this. You take a number. let's call it someone makes a family makes under 200 and something or 300 or 150 whatever the number is anything under that amount they pay zero taxes all right so you just get rid of their taxes if you make their taxes lower and pretty much make it zero yeah it should be easier for them to buy food spend money and all that kind of stuff the second thing is you take all the politicians because a lot of them somehow i don't know how their networks on some of these people who are not presidents i'm not going to speak out to any particular names started increasing in like 50 million or 100 but who knows if they're actually even accurate based on these online sites and you take it and you say you know what as a politician you're now getting a really amazing salary your salary is make it up four or five million dollars a year or three million a year if you hit these milestones you get an extra x million if you hit these crazy milestones you can get paid even more they got to a keep the people happy b they can't operate the country has a deficit and they got to cut the useless spending because they cut the useless spending.

11:22They don't need as much and hopefully they can reallocate money for the common good, especially the people who are struggling more. That's my second thing. The third thing, you put a luxury tax on these rich people. If my buddy wants to buy a Bentley, it depends. Let's say my home. I bought a home recently, right? I bought a home. I didn't need it. charge me an extra tax on it. I'm gladly willing to pay more money on the purchase of that home just for that money to go towards people who need help or whatever it may be. They should tax the rich more, but not tax them more in which like, hey, your income is crazy high.

12:01Just pay more taxes. I don't think that does any good. Tax them on their spending. And the reason I say that is when my income is good, what do I do? I just keep reinvesting back into the business and hire more, right? And people could say, well, that's expense, not necessarily because depending on how you're investing, whether it's buying companies and things like that, and depending on your corporate structure, it's not all a write-off and you had to pay taxes on that money, even if you're buying another company and trying to create more jobs from it. Right. But I think if they did those three things, they can run the country more efficiently.

12:36Well, first off, poor people would have access to more stuff because they have more money to spend, which would be great. People in office, if they weren't running things efficiently, they can't be reelected. And they're also getting paid a much better rate. So you would have, I think you would have a lot more talented people being like, wait, being a politician, I can make five,$10 million a year. Well, why would I do this? This is a great career. And they'll do what's right for the country and people. Because if they don't, it'll just be in writing that they can't ever be reelected again. All right, quick note.

13:07This is about my company. It's called Single Grain. And Single Grain is an ad agency where we're focused on driving innovation. I want to talk about a couple of new strategies. And if you need help with marketing, great. If not, here are a couple of new strategies that you should try out. One is programmatic CRO. So we are doing programmatic conversion rate optimization on our site. So it's building products that will automatically optimize your site to increase conversion rates. We're also auto-optimizing, auto-updating from an SEO standpoint. And we're constantly thinking about what else we can do in terms of enriching the visitors that are hitting your website and also tailoring custom messages for them using AI.

13:40And so there's a handful of things that we're doing from a marketing standpoint, and our mission is just to drive more innovation. So if you want to learn more, just go to singlegrain.com, grain like rice. So singlegrain.com to learn more, and we'll see you inside. You know, so Warren Buffett said this. Warren Buffett, same deal. I was going to ask you this earlier. Should the rich be taxed more? And my opinion is, yes. Again, when you're rich, what you do is you continue to reinvest the money, you continue to compound, and it gets crazier and crazier over time too, right? Because your rates of return are generally better than average as well.

14:12So it's just a law of large numbers. The other thing that he says is that if you're a politician, if the GDP doesn't grow, then you can't serve another term. And that will quickly get people to shape up. You've thought through a little more, but the incentives should be aligned. The incentives are not aligned right now, which is why we're spending like crazy and we're fighting over stupid things. Spending like drunken sailors. Yeah. And then the other thing, our deficit is what? $34 trillion? Something like that, yeah. right? And then what percent do we pay? I don't know, 3%, 4 % a year? Something crazy, right?

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15:15You can also stress less knowing that Shopify's award-winning customer support team is on standby 24-7 to help with any issues that arise, allowing you to get back to business as fast as possible. This Black Friday, join the thousands of new entrepreneurs hearing for the first time with Shopify. Sign up for your trial today at shopify.com slash marketing school. That's shopify.com slash marketing school. Go to shopify.com slash marketing school and make this black Friday one to remember. Um, and the other thing too, is the going back to the, you know, have you read the book man search for meaning?

15:50No. So it's about this guy, um, that lived in the concentration camps and you saw how the people that died versus the people that survived versus the people that died, the people that survived, the main thing that kept them around was that they had a purpose. So you can give people all the money in the world, but if you don't give them a sense of purpose, they're still going to not be that happy or useful at the end of the day. And so this doesn't seem like it worked out. I guarantee if you gave them more money, probably still wouldn't do much, right? You can't do that. You have to give people a sense of purpose and you have to give them a sense that they're feeling useful at the end of the day.

16:26So I would say those three things are top of mind for me. dude and then they keep saying oh let's just tax rich more my tax rate is already around 50 how much higher are you going to end up getting i'm not asking for my tax rate to be lowered by any means i just want the money to be used in a better way if someone told me pay five percent more than i'm paying right now and everyone who couldn't afford health insurance got it for free and it really got it and their treatments were great i would be happy with it there should be more accountability but yes politicians are so focused on you know their battles their petty battles and then i would take the ultra rich which none of us really follow in and they have a lot of unrealized gains with their stocks and stuff like that that's fine they shouldn't pay taxes on it but if they want to borrow money and buy a yacht or a plane tax them on that kind of stuff but guess who who makes these laws politicians yeah who's funding the politicians rich people the ultra rich yeah yeah so it's it's hard for this stuff to change um it is it's like oh you bought a 200 million yacht you don't want to pay taxes i get people borrowing money against their stock portfolio but borrowing money to use it for personal use like jets uh yachts cars just not pay taxes yeah they're borrowing not to pay that kind of stuff you should pay taxes but if your stock went up to double or triple and you're not borrowing against it you shouldn't pay tax on it because it can also go down backwards and really hurt people or if you're a private venture funded startup it's like oh cool i never made money my company's now worth 200 million but we don't make any money yeah you're underwater you're underwater we're only worth 200 million because we did some ai hot startup but we make zero dollars in revenue they're betting on the future yeah oh the government wants to pay tax on these shit you can't do that yeah i i think you also get taxed on the markups too it's something like the vcs mark you up you get taxed on it that's what they're trying to pass yeah yeah i know but it's just ridiculous but at the same time the person who wants to buy $200 million a yacht.

18:22No, you should just sell your shares or pay taxes on that yacht. Whatever you want to do, just go collect the tax money from that person on their yacht. Yep. All right, guys. So that's it for today's episode. Marketing school.io slash agency. If you want to grow your agency faster, that's our little community. In fact, Neil, do you want to come to the next session next week? Are you in town next week? Depending what time I'm driving home, but yeah. All right, we'll figure it out. So this is when Neil and I will jump in every now and then every month or so. And we'll have guest speakers and all that.

18:52And you have an entire community of people all trying to grow. We're talking seven, eight figure agency owners, six figures as well. And yeah, that is it for today. Please don't forget to rate, view, subscribe and we will catch you tomorrow.