Filling the federal data void

0:00This marketplace podcast is supported by Wealth Enhancement, who ask, do you have a blueprint for your money? Wealth Enhancement can help you build the right blueprint for investing, retirement, tax, and more. With offices nationwide, there's an advisor who's ready to listen and craft a blueprint for your future. Find out more at wealthenhancement.com slash build. This podcast is supported by Odoo. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because the simple, efficient software promotes growth. Others say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable.

0:37And some describe Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more as building blocks for creating a custom software suite. So Odoo is fertilizer, magic beanstalk building blocks for business. Odoo, exactly what businesses need. Sign up at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. It's day seven of the government shutdown, which means we are solidly standing in a second business week without crucial federal data. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

1:17In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for Kai Rizdahl. It's Tuesday, October 7th. Good to have you along. Economists and economic journalists need data. Numbers give us a sense of where the economy has been, where the economy is now, and where the economy is heading. But data, thankfully, come in many forms. Today we got some from the private sector. The investment firm Carlyle released a report about employment in September. The company estimates that just 17 ,000 jobs were created last month, which in the grand scheme of things is pretty paltry. Carlyle is just one of many companies now providing this kind of data to the public.

2:01And because nothing is ever really free, why would a private firm just offer this up? Marketplace's Daniel Ackerman looked into it. Today's Carlyle report tells basically the same story we've been hearing from other data sources. A pretty consistent picture of really slow or stalled growth in the U.S. labor market. Celeste Carruthers is a labor economist at the University of Tennessee. And she says companies collect economic data in different ways. Carlisle from their investment holdings, ADP from payrolls. And because these firms are limited in how they're able to collect information, Elise Gould with the Economic Policy Institute takes these reports with a small grain of salt compared to the federal data.

2:43It's not that they're less trustworthy. It's that they don't provide the same kind of comprehensive picture month after month, year after year. Gould says the government data is just richer. We get very accurate information about demographics, so everything from race and gender to education level to where they live. Plus, the government is clear about how they collect all that information. Preston Mui of Employ America says not all private sector firms are so forthcoming. For instance, the Carlyle report. It's hard to say exactly how seriously to take it because the details of exactly how they constructed the data were not really apparent.

3:20They just said that it was based on their proprietary data set. Carlisle didn't respond to an interview request. Mui says that private companies can provide some data sets that the government simply can't, even when it is up and running. One that I really like is the Indeed wage tracker, which looks at wage growth in job postings. As for why private firms would just publish this data for free? We do it as a public service. John Challenger is CEO of Challenger Gray and Christmas. That's an outplacement firm. They help companies deal with layoffs, so they already collect that data. It's just the focus of what we do as a business.

3:58We look for trends by industry and region, so we work hard at trying to create solid information that comes out at the beginning of each month. Plus, it doesn't hurt that this kind of public service can also be good for business, says Gerald Cohen, an economist at the University of North Carolina. I think it's a bit of marketing. But Cohen says with government data on hiatus, it's the best we've got. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace. Wall Street today, was it the shutdown? Was it rising gold prices? Whatever it was, traders did not like what they saw. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

4:56We've done plenty of stories on the sticky housing market. Stories about high prices and high mortgage rates, though rates have come down a bit in the last couple months. The average 30-year fixed is 6.34%, according to Freddie Mac. That's below the one-year average, but still plenty high for homebuyers. So many of them are skipping mortgages altogether. Almost a third of all homes sold in the first six months of the year went to buyers who made all-cash offers, according to a report out today from Realtor.com. Marketplace's Carla Javier looks into who these buyers are and how they're impacting the housing market.

5:39Cash offers made sense back in the competitive pandemic housing market, says Hannah Jones at the National Association of Realtors. But now? You know, we're in this slightly less competitive housing market. And so it's interesting to see that, you know, cash share is still relatively high because it is also it's this flag of investor activity to some degree, and it's also a flag of how much wealth is in the housing market right now. When it comes to cheaper homes, Jones says the cash buyers tend to be investors who either rent the place out or try to flip it for profit. It also could be buyers who maybe can't get approved for a mortgage, and so they're looking to buy in all cash.

6:21But Jones says there's another group of all-cash buyers making bids on more expensive homes. They tend to be wealthier, older, and they've owned homes before. There are households that are definitely in a situation where if they sell their home, they can buy their next home in all cash. And if they've been in their house long enough, gains in value might offset the cost of a new house, especially if they downsize or move somewhere more affordable. Paying in cash makes an offer more attractive to sellers. It also costs less for buyers. Michael Reher at the University of California, San Diego, found that out after he made a bid on a house backed by a mortgage right before the pandemic and lost out to an all-cash offer.

6:59So he and a fellow researcher looked at how much a difference cash made for the average buyer. If they were to switch from mortgage to cash, they could buy the same home for 10 % less. One caveat, though, that research was done before COVID. In the time since, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather notes that the prevalence of cash offers reflects a market that's tough to break into. People who are first-time homebuyers who don't have cash, who can only afford small down payments, it's been quite hard for them in this high interest rate environment. Because less cash means more risk for sellers that financing may fall through and the deal may fall apart.

7:36I'm Carla Javier from Marketplace.

7:54We can look at jobs and housing market data to tell us a lot about the economy. But sometimes squinting at super specific, dare I say niche data, may tell us something else that the big, broad stuff can't. Sales of secondhand goods can explain what's happening in certain industries and with businesses and consumers. There's used cars, thrifted clothing, and as Marketplace's Matt Levin reports, construction equipment. It's a preview day at Bar Nun Auction Yard in southeast Sacramento. The 18-acre dirt lot feels like a blend of well-organized junkyard and used car dealership, with 2 ,000-plus items set for online auction the next day, from beat-up ambulances to portable saunas.

8:43Some stuff will come from government agencies. Jeff Huber is Bar Nun's marketing head. The other piece is just individuals, corporations, businesses themselves, older equipment that they're looking to offload, maybe to make room for new stuff, or maybe they just need to free up some cash. Huber is giving me a tour of the auction's biggest attractions, a stretch of the yard the Bar Nun employees call Main Street. And you'll see right in front of us we have a nice big wheel loader. Beyond that, we have a motor grader. Then we have a nice big excavator. Then we got some mini X's. Rows upon rows of heavy construction equipment.

9:22Lots of Caterpillar and John Deere logos. Huber walks me to a skid steer, kind of an all-terrain bobcat type thing. And he's not sure it's going to start up. Now, some things will be dead. We're in luck. So, like, if you were to come out and you were to turn the key and nothing happens, we will try to jump the vehicles and the equipment for you. Barnon doesn't certify that the equipment is actually ready to use, which is why John Van Tassel is doing a very close inspection of the semi-truck trailer he's thinking of bidding on. And then you just kind of, yeah, just do a little walk around. You get under, check your brakes, check your tires, because tires are expensive.

10:07Even with a pretty big crack on the wood section of the deck, there's been plenty of early bidding online. Yeah, so this trailer right now, I think I just looked at it at$10 ,500, and I'd probably go up to$15 ,000 on it. New big rig trailers can run you$30 ,000. Van Tassel works in construction. He's a truck driver and equipment operator for a Northern California bridge building company. But he's actually here for his side hustle, his own trucking concern. Getting my own thing going. I have a freight brokerage, and so I do freight brokering, and then hauling, trying to pick up some of my own accounts with my own equipment.

10:44There's a lot of getting-my-own-thing-going buyers in the used equipment market these days. Bar none, territory manager Brad Fanini says that tells you something about how the construction industry is faring. Not slow, per se, but slower than a couple years ago. So you buy a little excavator and go work Saturday and Sunday to try and feed your family. I mean, that's what you do. So it's where the side hustle kind of kicks in. It's these guys are they've got free time on their hands. Residential construction is especially lagging. Housing completions are down about 7 percent from last year. Tariffs are also part of the equation.

11:23But Fanini says a run up in sticker price at the Caterpillar dealership isn't necessarily good news for online auctioneers. It's kind of that double-edged sword, you know? I mean, you know, we want customers going in there buying new equipment, and that way we can take the advantage of selling their old equipment. I did check out the actual online auction. Honestly, it's not much more exciting than eBay. But in total, about$8 million worth of stuff was sold off. That includes the 5x10 dump trailer Ken Dilbeck picked up from the yard the following week. I bid$4 ,600 and after taxes and everything, registration, it came to$5 ,600.

12:03Is that a good deal? That's a good deal. The dump trailer is actually brand new. Sometimes bar none auctions new items they get their hands on. But Dilbeck has relied on the used market to relaunch his remodeling company. He says auction yards are a lifeline for smaller contractors. I'm trying to start my company up again and everything. And I bought$50 ,000 worth of stuff and that would have cost me$200 ,000 and you can't afford that. After picking up his dump trailer here, Dilbeck says he's actually headed to another auction yard to load it with$1 ,500 worth of other stuff he bought. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

12:53Coming up... Now with AI, it takes 10 to 15 seconds. I really hope that quote isn't about writing and hosting a business news show. But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 91 points, 0.2%, to finish at 46 ,602. The Nasdaq lost 153 points, 0.2%, to close at 22 ,788. And the S &P 500 shed 25 points, 0.4%, to end at 67.14. Gold rushed to a new record, closing at$4 ,003 per ounce. The price reflects investor anxiety about the weak dollar and uncertainty about the U.S. economy. Dan Ackerman reported that Carlyle is now releasing economic data since the government hasn't been.

13:43Carlyle Group surged one and three quarters percent. Bonds rose. The yield on the 10-year T-note fell to 4.13 percent. You're listening to Marketplace.

13:59This Marketplace podcast is supported by Wealth Enhancement, who ask, do you have a blueprint for your money? Wealth Enhancement can help you build the right blueprint for investing, retirement, tax, and more. With offices nationwide, there's an advisor who's ready to listen and craft a blueprint for your future. Find out more at wealthenhancement.com slash build. This Marketplace podcast is supported by Justin Wine. Get the celebration ready with Justin Wine. Since 1981, Justin has been producing world-class Bordeaux-style wines from Paso Robles on California's Central Coast. Justin offers curated gift sets, library wines, magnums, and even custom-etched bottles.

14:44Visit justinwine.com and enter MARKET20 for 20 % off your order. Justin offers the perfect holiday gifts for clients, colleagues, friends, or family. Be sure to check them out at justinwine.com to receive 20 % off your order for a limited time. It's time for Black Friday, Dell Technologies' biggest sale of the year. That's right, you'll find the lowest prices of the year on select Dell PCs like the Dell 16 Plus with Intel Core Ultra processors. And with built-in advanced AI features, it's the PC that helps you do more faster. From smarter multitasking to extended battery life, these PCs get the busy work done so you can focus on what matters most to you.

15:24Plus, earn Dell rewards and enjoy many other benefits like free shipping, expert support, price match guarantee, and flexible financing options. They also have the biggest deals on accessories that pair perfectly with your Dell PC, improving the way you work, play, and connect. Whether you just started holiday shopping or you're finishing up, these PCs and accessories make perfect gifts for everyone on your list. Shop now at Dell.com slash deals and don't miss out on the best prices of the year. That's Dell.com slash deals. This podcast is supported by Odoo. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because the simple, efficient software promotes growth.

16:03Others say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable. And some describe Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more as building blocks for creating a custom software suite. So Odoo is fertilizer, magic beanstalk building blocks for business. Odoo, exactly what businesses need. Sign up at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. This is Marketplace. I'm Kristen Schwab. We got September's survey of consumer expectations today from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It says consumers are not feeling so great about the economy. They're expecting inflation to go up and unemployment to go up, too.

16:42Of course, consumers are not a one-size-fits-all group. They have personal reasons that inform how they feel about the economy. It's something I've been trying to capture in my series, Lived Economies. I'm following a group of people living very different lives, from young adults just entering the job market to retirees who've just left it. Karim Adassi is a pharmacist. He lives in Elk Grove, California, with his wife, Hanan. When I visited the couple earlier this year, they had one daughter. Now they have two. Kareem, thanks for being here. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. It's good to be back.

17:20Well, congrats on the new baby. What's her name again? Summer. Summer. And how old is she at this point? She was born May 16th, so she is about to be five months. Great. And how's it going for you and Hanan? Good, good. You know, the transition from one to two kids is a lot more significant than we thought it would be. But, you know, we're managing. Were you and Hanan able to take some time off? Yeah. So Hanan is still on maternity leave. She starts back to work next week. And I was able to take some paternity leave. I started back at work on my birthday, so July 14th. Well, with both of you returning to work soon, what does child care look like for you and that cost?

18:31Yeah, so we're fortunate enough to have found this really sweet woman that actually lives in our neighborhood. And for both kids, I don't know. I mean, we're still trying to kind of figure out with both kids how much it's going to cost. But, I mean, it's going to be in the$2 ,000 to$3 ,000 a month range for sure. What about the other costs of adding another kid? Have your expenses changed? Has your budget changed?

19:14Not anything that I've noticed per se. there was a weekend where I went to Costco and we were like out of everything diapers for Talia diapers for summer like we were just out of everything for whatever reason I can't I don't you know we usually don't wait till last minute and it was the first time where I spent like three four hundred dollars at costco and i it just like really hit me that yeah i'm i'm a dad now like that was the moment that was the moment that was the moment costco will do that to you uh i hear actually though that you all got a pretty surprising hospital bill yeah yeah and it really annoyed me because from what my understanding is, it got to the point where the delivery was right after the new insurance year.

20:22And so we didn't have any of the deductibles paid and all of that. And so, yeah, we ended up having, it was around an$8 ,000 hospital bill. Oh, wow. Yeah. Yeah. And I tried, I think I spent majority, if not the whole paternity leave, talking to the hospital and talking to like a health advocate. I even tried to apply for like financial assistance through the hospital, but they said our income was too high. And so it kind of went back to the general concept that we talked about earlier was we make too much money for any of these like assistance programs, but we don't make enough for to not be stressed about money.

21:18Hmm. You know, after that bill with a new child going back to work, life is very different. How are you feeling about the economy right now? Has it changed since I last talked to you? that's a great question i don't know if it's changed but i would say i'm a little more accepting of the reality at this point there's nothing that me individually as Kareem Adassi can do anything about the economy. And just because I think the economy is really expensive right now and things are so unaffordable doesn't change the fact that I still need to provide for my family and get them what they need and all of that, if that makes sense.

22:24Yeah. Kareem Adassi is in Elk Grove, California, and he's one of the people we're following. in our series, Lived Economies. Thanks so much, Kareem. Thanks, Krista.

22:51It seems like there's a new announcement about investments and advancements in artificial intelligence every day. Which is to say, AI is here whether we like it or not. More businesses and communities are embracing that outlook, including tribal nations. They're using AI to augment government operations, grow their enterprises, and preserve their languages. But AI also poses unique risks in Indian country. Marketplace's Savannah Peters went to a summit in Phoenix, where tribal leaders discussed AI's risks and rewards. The Morongo Band of Mission Indians governs itself in a unique way. Here's how the tribe's chief administrative officer, Jason Carrizosa, describes it.

23:36We're like a super democracy. We don't have a constitution or anything like that. Instead, Morongo law is a patchwork of hundreds of citizen-approved ordinances and resolutions and ballot referenda. So if I need to ask about a governance issue, like does the tribal council have the authority to act in this manner? Getting an answer used to take some digging and could hold up a council meeting. Now with AI, it takes 10 to 15 seconds. Carrizosa built an AI-driven legal repository himself. It's a proprietary tool that helps his tribe's government run more efficiently and make decisions that honor its past.

24:20I'll ask, tell me a little narrative on Ordinance 21 and what it means for professional conduct, right? And it'll fire it out perfect, like to the T. Carrizosa says AI could be a force multiplier in hard-to-staff government departments and help Morongo's enterprises bring in more revenue to fund community services. But he also knows there are risks. That's the first thing tribes are going to look at. Like, where's our data? How do we factor in risks for that? Tribal nations hold sensitive data about their citizens, just like any other government. But they also have enrollment in genealogical records to think about.

25:02Language materials, fiercely guarded traditional and cultural knowledge. We're obviously a community that has been exploited for our data and for our culture for centuries. Tracy Morris directs the Center for Tribal Digital Sovereignty at Arizona State University. At the start of the summit, she asked the audience to scan a QR code for a poll. You need to get your phones out. This is how we do this. She wanted to know how many of these tribal leaders and IT workers are using some form of AI in their daily work. That's pretty telling. Most of you. Then Morris asked what kinds of AI tools everyone was using.

25:46Lockdown proprietary models or open source bots like ChatGPT? Like two thirds were just using open data sources, which was rather frightening. Because it means sovereign nations could lose control of information they've worked hard to protect. But there's another familiar risk for Indian country. We as a people were not meant to be left behind. And this is one of those efforts in which we know we have to keep pace. Paula Starr is the chief information officer for the Cherokee Nation, one of the first tribes to adopt a reservation-wide artificial intelligence policy, encouraging use of a secure, closed-source model.

26:27I think the most surprising use case for us definitely was our 3D printing of turtle shells, using AI to build a model. Students at a Cherokee immersion school are using those shells to make shakers worn during stomp dance. Starr says that's in line with feedback from Cherokee citizens that helped shape the nation's AI policy. They are good with us exploring it as a government as long as we keep it culturally grounded. But staying culturally grounded can also mean hanging back. We're very risk-averse. It's funny. It's like a genetic disposition how resistant we are to change. Jason Carrizosa is working on a policy to encourage and put guardrails around AI use at Morongo.

27:15He says one challenge could be getting the community to buy in. In Phoenix, I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

27:32This final note on the way out today saw this in Bloomberg. Here's some grocery news as we wait for September's Consumer Price Index to come out next week, barring a prolonged government shutdown, of course. The market price for chicken has fallen 18 % since its summer season peak. The math is pretty simple here. Supply is finally catching up with demand. When beef prices skyrocketed, consumers ran to chicken. Then there wasn't enough chicken to keep up, so chicken prices spiked too. The cost coming down is good news for consumers who've been facing rising grocery bills. Not so good news for meat producers who've been counting on chicken prices to make up for their loss of business in beef.