U.S. dollar down, gold hits all-time high

0:01Fun fact to owe the day one troy ounce is about 10 % heavier than one regular ounce. Gold is where we're going to start from American public media. This is Marketplace.

0:23In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdahl. It is Monday today. This one is the 22nd of December. Good as always to have you along, everybody. It cost you as of the close today in New York a record$4 ,444.60 to get yourself one of the aforementioned troy ounces of gold. That is yet another record high. The safest of safe havens is up 70 % for the year, 70%. And yes, there is lots going on out there to be seeking safety from. But as Marketplace's Henry App reports now to get us going, there is something else in the mix, too. A lot of market analysts think that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice next year.

1:04That's based on the direction the job market and inflation appear to be heading. There are two reasons lower rates could make gold more interesting to investors. The first is straightforward, says Paolo Pasquriello, a finance professor at the University of Michigan. In finance, when somebody wants to speculate on a financial asset, you want to make a bet on stock or a bond or gold or silver. The way speculators do it is to borrow money in order to make the bets. Lower interest rates would make it cheaper to borrow money to buy a bunch of gold. The second reason is a bit more conceptual. Instead of buying gold and silver, you could keep money in the bank.

1:42And if you keep money in the bank, you'd be earning interest. Say in a certificate of deposit or money market account. But if rates go down, the interest you get from the bank often goes down too. And even though gold doesn't earn you any interest, it could become relatively more attractive. Philip Striebel is chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. An investor will want to get that money working somewhere else where they believe that they can get a higher yield. So gold has historically been their go-to commodity on that. So the expectation that more investors may flock to gold if rates fall could be part of the reason the metals price has been rising.

2:22But the level of interest rates is not the only determinant of the price of gold. Campbell Harvey is a professor of finance at Duke. Another factor, a lot of countries that have historically invested in U.S. Treasury bonds because they're a safe bet are feeling a bit less sure about them these days. Countries that are heavily weighted in U.S. dollar assets are looking for something else defensive. And gold is at the top of the list. Those countries are buying it up, too, increasing the demand and the price. I'm Henry App for Marketplace. While we're at it, precious metals, that is, silver, platinum and palladium all jumped today.

3:03Oh, and equities? Why, the Santa Claus rally has begun. We will have the details when we do the numbers.

3:31The November Consumer Price Index came out last week. Inflation is cooling, kinda. As you know, the data come with a whole bunch of caveats. That said, part of that cooling came in a critical category, food at home, groceries. But, and you for sure don't need me or inflation data to tell you this, If you've been anywhere near a grocery store recently, the price of beef keeps on going up. Meat in general up 8.9 percent from a year ago. Ground beef up nearly 16 percent. Beef roasts up a whopping 21 percent as we head into a week of holiday cooking. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab has more on that. We talk a lot about how terrible consumers feel about prices and how many of them, especially upper income households, keep spending anyway.

4:16That split is maybe best illustrated at the supermarket, says David Anderson, an economist at Texas A &M. Everybody goes to the store and we all complain a lot, but we stuck it in the cart anyway and moved on to the next thing, you know. Despite rising prices, Americans likely consumed more beef in 2024 than they had in nearly 15 years. Some theories. The pandemic coaxed people into cooking more intimidating foods. Protein is very in right now, especially with the growing GLP-1 crowd. It's all juiced demand. Meanwhile, Anderson says supply isn't keeping up. We've got the fewest beef cows since 1961.

4:58Our total cattle inventory is the smallest since 1951. So we're producing fewer animals. Ranchers are hesitant to expand because of all the risks. There was a smaller beef bubble about a decade ago. Record high prices led to a collapse. Years of drought have made production difficult. Plus, Daryl Peel, a livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State, says borrowing costs are still high. And so there's just a lot more caution on the part of producers and lenders. Also, beef production is a process. It takes several years to increase the size of a herd. And to do that, ranchers have to take heifers, the females, out of production.

5:39So beef production will actually squeeze even tighter as a part of that process. And Glenn Tonzer, an agriculture economist at Kansas State, says imported beef isn't going to help bring prices down because of tariffs. The volatility and the lack of predictability in that has sort of been off the charts in 2025. So the cost of a burger or a steak will probably keep rising unless Americans demand less and decide beef is not what's for dinner. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

6:34Move over, cloud architect and DevOps engineer. And here's one for the AI age, prompt engineer. There's a new job title in corporate America, storyteller. According to data from LinkedIn, the percentage of job postings on that platform with the word storyteller in them doubled this year. Katie Dayton wrote about it in the Wall Street Journal the other day. Katie, welcome to the program. Good to have you back on. An absolute pleasure to be back. What is the job description for these storytellers? What do they do? It can be a little bit of a mix, but it is kind of like content creation under another name.

7:16So we've seen storytellers, you know, writing blog posts, but also writing speeches, producing YouTube videos, podcasts, developing, producing various different shows, just sort of taking a real handle on how companies are showing up narratively. It's marketing by another name, kind of, yeah? Absolutely. It's definitely part of the marketing business. A lot of these jobs sit underneath the marketing heads and departments with just a bit of a sexier name. Yes, just a teeny bit. Here's the thing, though. Companies don't like to spend money and hire people unless they really need to, which is because it's expensive.

7:59What's the value add that these folks are bringing? What can they do that a traditional marketing or communications person doesn't do? Well, there is a theory that right now, because of the lack of press, because of all of these newspapers, magazines closing down, and journalists losing their jobs, a lot of these companies that once relied on especially business journalists to tell their stories, they haven't got anywhere to go to now. At the same time, we have the rise of AI search engines. If you want to type in something about a company, say you're doing some research and you want to look up a retail company, these companies need to make sure that they are on the web and they are in text somewhere on the internet, even if it's not a typical media publication.

8:44And making sure that they have a tone of voice to really stand out because we're expecting this great blanding that's going to come with AI, right? A lot of companies are going to potentially sound a lot like each other. So if they can hire people that have skills in creating a narrative and making a real strong tone of voice, they think that they can win and stand out and ultimately acquire and keep customers. I love the great blending. I've not heard that before, and I kind of love that. But here's the question that follows. Creating a voice is hard. You know, it's I mean, it's just not easy and either you can do it or you don't.

9:26So it's kind of hit or miss with these folks. Absolutely. And then you have to question whether, you know, how much of a voice do these companies really want? I mean, they say that they say that they do. They say that this is going to be the way that they remain distinctive. However, they are corporations. A lot of these companies are public companies. So, you know, they have to really kind of toe the line. And there's only so far that I'm sure their legal departments will allow them to do so. I think that's why these companies are sometimes finding a little bit more success in the entertainment space.

9:58So, you know, some are even producing their own entertainment TV shows, podcasts, a little bit away from, you know, detached from the typical day-to-day of these jobs, of these companies. but it's still entertaining and hopefully don't get them in too much trouble from a legal standpoint. Right. And then just mentioning the entertainment thing and other social media, it's all about branded content, right? Absolutely. And there's a few of these YouTube and Instagram and TikTok series, these micro series that are coming out that you wouldn't probably know they were funded by a brand unless you made it all the way to the end titles.

10:38So there's that going on. And it's just a different form of marketing to capture attention and to just make sure that in this world where there's a million brands out there, some brands will know that they're going to be top of customers' minds when they come to make a purchase. Brand is everything. Katie Dayton at The Wall Street Journal. Katie, thanks a lot. I appreciate your time. Thanks. Thanks, Kai.

11:19We generate, we globally that is, a huge amount of electronic waste. According to the United Nations, it'll be 82 million metric tons by the year 2030. That's about 90 million non-metric tons, should you be curious, of stuff that has a plug or a battery. But of course, one person's e-waste is another person's e-treasure. Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy. I'm Sarai Dunsany, and I am the CEO and co-founder of The Retro Roadshow. And I'm Huxley Dunsany, the CTO and co-founder of The Retro Roadshow. We're based in Alameda, California, and we've been doing this for officially for about 18 months now.

12:06Yeah, about 18 months. Yeah, we established in May of 2024. And we are the Bay Area's premier pop-up museum of vintage technology. I think we skipped that part.

12:23I started collecting vintage technology when I was a young teenager. I was super eager to get my hands on computers, video games, anything nerdy and electronic. I got this feeling that it was maybe worth holding on to as much of it as I could because there wouldn't be many examples left before long. So the first time I ever found out about Huxley's collection was when we moved in together. I think what really brought it in for me was his passion for all of this stuff. So I bought into the, hey, let's go to the yard sale or let's go to a thrift store. Let's see what they have. And it became really fun.

13:02It was like a treasure hunt. The idea for starting a pop-up museum was kind of always floating around in our minds, but it really came into existence back in 2019. a local coffee shop saw some project I was restoring online and invited us to bring the old computer I had fixed over to the coffee shop and set it up in the window. People loved it and from then we realized that there was an actual audience for what we were into with this. So we picked the last Wednesday of the month and we just we would come in and bring in vintage computers and classic gaming consoles, I started thinking, I wonder if this could become a business.

13:51I remember pretty clearly the first few times Sarai brought up the idea. I wanted to be thoughtful. Like I have a day job that keeps me pretty busy and we have a kid, but at the same time, I freaking love what we're doing. And so I kind of just said, you know, the risk of additional stress is way totally outweighed by the potential of getting to do this really unique, fun thing with people I love. It was a no-brainer. I just went to interject. You did notice that he says with people I love, so he still loves me after this. So far, so good. Quarterly reviews are coming up.

14:35as far as profitability we are pretty much breaking even but next year is definitely looking very promising when i decided that i wanted to leave my job and focus on the retro Roadshow full time, we gave it about five years. You know, it would be a bit of a lifestyle change, right? And then plus, you know, with Huxley being the primary breadwinner and a lot, you know, that would add a lot of stress onto him. I mean, he's, he's got broad shoulders and it's a lot to carry, but it's, it's been going really well. I feel like by the time we come to five years, I think I'll still be doing the Retro Roadshow.

15:28Sarai and Huxley Dunsany, they run the Retro Roadshow in Alameda, California. Vintage or modern, whatever you do, it's your stories that make this series, and honestly, this whole economy go, you know. So please let us know what's going on, marketplace.org slash myeconomy.

15:58Coming up, it can actually increase brand loyalty. What's old is new again. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial is up 227 points today, almost a half percent. Closed at 48 ,362. The Nasdaq ascended 121 points, about a half percent. 23 ,428. The S &P 500 up 43 points, 6 tenths percent, 68 and 78 there. Jay Wellington Wimpy from the classic Popeye cartoons was an early proponent of buy now, pay later when he said, I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. So are those ever-rising beef prices that Kristen told us about? BNPL for burgers feels almost necessary, right? So some online price menus for burgers near Wall Street, menus that may or may not be totally accurate.

16:46The Spicy Jalapeno Double Cheeseburger,$10 at 7th Street Burger, Financial District. At the Continental Sports Lounge, you will pay 25 American Samolians for the Wick Burger, described as a brisket short rib blend with dill pickles, smoked pork belly, and Irish cheddar. You are, believe it or not, listening to Marketplace.

17:09This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl. The U.S. dollar ends the year down almost 10 percent against a basket of other currencies from where it was on New Year's Day. The first half of the year, especially grim tariffs, of course, the Fed cutting interest rates. Summer and early fall weren't too bad, stable even. But since mid-November, the greenback's been edging lower once again, and there are some signs it could keep sliding in 2026, which, as is always the case with currency fluctuations and with most other economic dynamics, to be honest, It would benefit some parts of this economy and hurt some others.

17:44Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has that one. Global investors plow more capital into a country, driving up its currency, when they think its economy is going to outperform others or its central bank will offer higher interest rates, juicing their returns. That's what happened in late 2024 as the dollar rose on strong growth expectations. Then President Trump's tariffs were announced, investors got worried, and the dollar fell. And next year, here's Cornell economist Ishwar Prasad. Logically, the dollar ought to weaken because it looks like there will be economic as well as political pressures in the U.S.

18:23to cut interest rates, while at the same time, other major central banks could be moving in the other direction. Also, he says, the U.S. economy looks dicier than major European and Asian economies heading into 2026. Potentially facing a rougher period ahead with the labor market softening. Meanwhile, there's still plenty of policy uncertainty in the U.S., including about Fed independence that's undermining global investor confidence, says Gary Schlossberg at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. With the president demanding lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Still, Schlossberg's prediction for the dollar next year runs counter to Prasad's.

19:05We still think the dollar will be steady to slightly permer. Hey, ask two economists, get at least two different answers. Schlossberg thinks even as the U.S. economy weakens, others are in worse shape. China really depended on exports to drive growth. That's masking structural issues. In Europe, there are some fiscal uncertainties, political uncertainties. Still, the prevailing consensus among economists does seem to be that the dollar will continue to weaken, which will likely be good for U.S. exporters, making their products more competitive abroad. But it'll contribute to inflation since so much of what we consume, from food to clothing, is imported.

19:47I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

20:09So here's a perhaps troubling data point. Every week in this economy, and this data comes from the claims adjustment company Sedgwick, every week, companies and regulators announce recalls of around 60 products. That's medical devices and pharmaceuticals, consumer products, food and beverages, vehicles. You get the picture. Sometimes, though, products are still available even after a recall. Earlier this year, a baby formula manufacturer issued a recall after reports it was infecting infants with botulism. And yet weeks later, regulators found it still for sale in more than 175 different places.

20:44Marketplace's Carla Javier explains what happens when a product, especially one that people eat, is recalled. Often when a food manufacturer has a problem that might require a recall, the phone rings at Jennifer McIntyre's consulting firm, Food Safety Strategy. It is a drop-everything, very urgent situation. She digs through documents, checks with regulators, and visits the places where the product is made. Looking at things, talking to people, trying to understand when we think this event occurred, what was happening that doesn't usually happen. Sometimes government agencies mandate recalls, but McIntyre says usually it's the companies themselves that make the decision.

21:25Although the term voluntary recall is used, a better term would be firm initiated. She says the word voluntary can mislead customers. It could send a message to consumers that, well, if a company is voluntarily recalling this product, then I can choose to follow the directions or not. And that's not the case. At that point, the challenge for the company is deciding how much product to recall. Companies don't want to toss safe products, but it's also not fantastic for companies to make an error and have to go back and re-recall something. Even when companies initiate recalls themselves, they work with regulators.

22:09And there are a lot of them, says Barbara Kowalczyk, director of the Institute for Food Safety and Nutrition Security at George Washington University. So we have 15 federal agencies that are charged with the oversight of food and then thousands of state and local agencies. The Department of Agriculture oversees meat, poultry and egg products, but almost everything else is the responsibility of the Food and Drug Administration. FDA has oversight of about 80 percent of the food supply and they have oversight of food safety at the retail level. Then there are those other federal agencies plus state and local regulators involved in the system.

22:48which makes it kind of burdensome sometimes to be able to navigate it quickly. When a company recalls a product, it should notify everyone downstream in the supply chain, distributors, retailers, and consumers. It might offer replacements, refunds, or coupons. It's up to retailers to stop selling the product. It's up to the company that made the recall to tell the FDA where it was being sold. And it's up to local regulators to make sure that it isn't happening anymore, says Stephen Mondernock of the Association of Food and Drug Officials. Ensuring that it's no longer available, making sure that they've clearly indicated that it can't be sold so that it doesn't accidentally get put back on the shelf.

23:29Although Mondernock says sometimes the communication between federal and local regulators is complicated. The FDA says it's the responsibility of all industry stakeholders, including retailers and distributors, to ensure recalled products don't get to consumers. When all is said and done, the cost of recalls can vary greatly, says Chris Harvey at Sedgwick. Sending out notification, collecting physically the recall product back, destroying it, issuing out reimbursement. Usually the highest cost, though, involves the loss of business. There's also the risk to a company's reputation. Do a recall wrong, and civil penalties and lawsuits can add up too.

24:08But Harvey says in his experience, if a recall is executed efficiently, transparently, and with empathy. It can actually increase brand loyalty. I've seen sales increase as well. Because if consumers trust that a recall was handled well, Harvey says they can actually be quite forgiving. I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.

24:44This final note on the way out today, we started with commodities. That's what precious metals are. After all, we are going to end with commodities of the petroleum variety. Crude oil today, both benchmarks. Brent North Sea and West Texas up better than 2.5 % apiece. Still cheap-ish, but rising. Amir Bambawi, Caitlin Esch, John Gordon, Noya Kar, Amanda Petra, and Stephanie Seek are the marketplace. editing staff. Kelly Silvera is the news director. And I'm Kyle Rizdahl. We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

25:22This is APM.