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Masters in Business - Episode Summary: From Technology in Focus to Finance with BlackRock's Tony Kim
Podcast Information
- Title: Masters in Business
- Host: Barry Ritholtz
- Guest: Tony Kim, Managing Director and Head of the Fundamental Equities’ Global Technology Team at BlackRock
- Original Air Date: [Insert Date Here]
- Description: Barry Ritholtz discusses the success of passive investing at BlackRock, the tech investing landscape, and building a career that integrates technology and finance with Tony Kim.
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Key Themes and Discussions
Background of Tony Kim
- Education:
- Bachelor's in Industrial Engineering from the University of Illinois.
- MBA from Columbia Business School.
- Career Path:
- Started as an engineer at Rockwell Automation, working on projects to automate manufacturing processes.
- Transitioned to investment banking in the mid-90s, capitalizing on the tech boom.
- Worked at S.G. Warburg (later acquired), and then Merrill Lynch, where he focused on M&A in tech.
Transition to Investment Management
- Investment Banking to Investment Management:
- Shifted focus to investing after gaining extensive experience in M&A.
- Emphasized the change from client-focused work to managing capital risk and longer-term investment strategies.
Passive vs. Active Investing
- Passive Investing Success at BlackRock:
- BlackRock has seen significant growth in passive investing since 2014.
- Tony’s focus is primarily on active management, although there is some crossover with the growing trend of active ETFs.
- Future of Active Management in ETFs:
- Active management is expected to thrive in specialized sectors (e.g., technology), where deeper domain knowledge can lead to better investment decisions.
Insights on Technology Investing
- Tech Landscape:
- Discussion on the evolving nature of the tech sector and the growing importance of AI.
- Emphasized the need for investment strategies that are adaptable due to the fast pace of technological change.
- Identifying Growth Technologies:
- Kim's approach involves breaking down the technology landscape into subsectors for better analysis and understanding.
- Utilizes a deconstructionist perspective to map out industries, identifying hot and cold trends.
Evaluating Companies for Investment
- Power Law Principle:
- Belief in a power law distribution where a few companies dominate market share.
- Emphasis on investing in number one or number two companies in their respective categories.
- Multiple Acts of Companies:
- Successful tech companies often have multiple revenue streams or "acts" that allow for sustained growth.
Current Fund Strategies
- iShares AI Innovation and Technology ETF (BAI):
- A concentrated portfolio focusing on companies involved in AI development and application.
- iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF (TEK):
- Broader focus on global tech companies, encompassing various sectors beyond just AI.
Challenges in Investment
- Short-Term vs. Long-Term Strategy:
- Discussion on the challenge of maintaining a long-term perspective in a market that often prioritizes short-term results.
- Importance of a historical track record for maintaining investor confidence during downturns.
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Key Takeaways
- Importance of Technology in the Economy:
- Technology, particularly AI, is reshaping the economy and investment strategies.
- Adaptability is Key:
- Investors must be adaptable to the rapid changes in technology and market demands.
- Investing in Proven Leaders:
- Focus on established leaders in technology who have shown resilience and the ability to pivot and innovate.
- Continuous Learning:
- Staying informed through extensive reading, industry meetings, and continuous research is vital for success in technology investing.
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Conclusion Tony Kim's insights into the technology investing landscape highlight the critical intersection of technology and finance, emphasizing the importance of adaptability, thorough analysis, and the value of investing in proven leaders within the tech sector. His experience and strategic approach provide valuable lessons for both investors and those beginning their careers in finance.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00I'm Hannah Fry, and as we rely more and more on artificial intelligence in every facet of our lives and businesses, I'm on a mission to find out how we can build the internet internet. AI needs. Learn more later in the podcast.
0:40On the edge of what we think we know. Wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. This week on the podcast, another extra special guest. Tony Kim is managing director at BlackRock, where he heads the Fundamental Equity Technology Group, helping to oversee all of the active technology investments BlackRock makes. In addition to being a portfolio manager and running a number of mutual funds and ETFs, he is just a world-class technology investor who understands the sector like few other people do.
1:30Not only has he put up a very impressive track record. His entire approach to the ecosystem of technology, covering everything from robotics to AI to software to semiconductors, is really quite fascinating. If you're at all interested in technology, in AI, in the process of thinking about tech investing, then you're going to find this conversation to be absolutely fascinating. With no further ado, my discussion with BlackRock's Tony Kim. Thank you, Barry. Pleasure to be here. Pleasure to have you. So let's start out with your background. Bachelor's in industrial engineering from University of Illinois and then an MBA from Columbia.
2:16What were the career plans? Career plans. Yeah. First of all, thanks for having me. Your show title, Masters in Business. I have no master in business. Well, Well, you have an MBA, so you automatically qualify. Yes, for sure. That's a master's, right? Yeah, that's true. That's true. Yeah, the origins of the career. You know, I grew up in the Midwest. It's the first phase of my life. And growing up in the 80s in Illinois, you know, as a—I'm from Korea, actually. But so the natural, I was a STEM kid, and that kind of propelled me into the engineering side. But I always had other interests outside of that.
3:02But the reason I went to Champaign, we were all from the state of Illinois, and my siblings and I all went to school in the state of Illinois. And I gravitated initially to engineering. And that got into that. and then eventually I ended up in New York and then transitioned into finance. We're going to talk about that transition in a minute, but before we get there, you really begin your career as an engineer at Rockwell Automation. What did you do there? This is the first job, right? First job, first real job out of school. It really, it was the first entree to a company, not only a company. This was an automation company that's often known for, works with many industries, but helping automate.
3:50I was working on projects to automate manufacturing. They had these things called PLCs, which are basically industrial computers with sensors, with drives, drive systems, motor control, robotics, and all of these things. and then you package them together and you work with many different kinds of manufacturing companies in the early days of automating manufacturing processes across many industries. So that was my first entree in seeing the diversity of the manufacturing base in this country. Particularly, I was working on the East Coast. And everything from pharmaceutical to automotive to what a distribution network looked like, what tier one, tier two kind of systems integrators were with the technology of automated manufacturing.
4:46And so we worked on different projects across a lot of industries. But I realized I didn't want to. I had other ambitions. This is what led me to going to graduate school. So let's talk about some of those other ambitions. You end up doing investment banking in New York in the mid-90s. Yes. What was the transition from being an engineer slash operator to an investor? What was that like? Well, when I went to Columbia, I worked at an engineering company. And I thought I wanted something at a higher level, more strategic in nature. I actually thought I wanted to try to get into consulting. That's a classical role for an MBA.
5:41None of the consultants would have wanted to hire me, but somehow the investment banking side found me, or I found them. And it was an engineering. Here's a guy from engineering with an engineering background. And at the time, those were the early days of pre.com. It was a new emerging industry. And so I think they saw that linkage between some technical expertise with finance, maybe working with that industry. So that was – but the finance is what pulled me in on the investment banking more so than the consulting because of that angle, I think. And your timing was perfect, the 1990s. Great time to be doing iBanking and technology.
6:28Tell us about some of the transactions you saw late 90s, early 2000s. What sort of deals were you working on? Yeah, just that transition. I was originally hired by S.G. Warburg, which is a British investment bank. It got acquired. That became Warburg Pincus? That became SBC Warburg, and then UBS bought SBC, and then UBS Warburg, and then the Warburg name went away. But I was there right at the time when Warburg was acquired. And that transition, I joined Merrill Lynch. And then Merrill Lynch said, go west, young man. Right. Okay. I remember Merrill Lynch during the 1990s was absolutely a powerhouse, or at least became a powerhouse towards the back half of that decade.
7:19Yeah, so it was very much a new thing for them in the West Coast. And so I went, and I still recall to this day, there were several of us that were the origins of the M &A group on the West Coast for Merrill Lynch. In fact, three of those people, 20-some years later, joined at BlackRock. And I can tell you the story of that. Sure. Let's hear that. Oh, okay. Yeah. There were three of us that were VPs and directors at the M &A group. Feel free to drop names. A guy named Draga Rojkovic, who is now vice chairman of J.P. Morgan, runs the Tech M &A. This guy, Michael Leitner, and then myself. And then we worked for this guy named Rob Stewart, and then Mark Schaefer above led the group.
8:12But Mike, Michael at Tenenbaum, BlackRock later acquired them. And he was one of the partners at Tenenbaum. And then recently, BlackRock bought GIP. and then Rob is one of the partners at GIP. So three of the four of us, Rob, myself, Michael, all ended up at BlackRock and some fans. Let's get the band back together and see if we can. Drago did not. Drago is at J.P. Morgan right now. But those were the original days. And then the transactions, this was pre.com and the internet was just getting going. Are you talking early 90s? Mid to late 90s. I remember being on a trading desk in 96 when the Netscape, and I was not allowed to trade it, when the Netscape IPO happened.
9:04That was really what kicked off a giant explosion. Were you there around that time? Yes, in that time. These were the deals when Cisco was going crazy. and there were so many transactions in networking. There was the optical communications boom, some of the original software internet assets. And so I did transactions in this, especially a lot in the networking telecom. I remember working on one or two software deals and I did that for a while. And then I decided to leave investment banking, which I learned a tremendous amount, Especially the strategic nature of looking at industries and companies.
9:52And, of course, all of the financial acumen, the rigor of doing very intensive financial analysis. But you're always working at the behest of a client, right? Right. You're working on it. It was transactional related. And this is when I decided to go and take a career path change to the investment side. So tell us what that transition was like. What is it like going from transactional M &A on the West Coast to, no, I just want to find companies, public and private, and invest capital in them? Yeah, I think that was the transition. The financial analysis is the same, effectively. Maybe it's even more intensive on the M &A side because you're doing much more detailed work.
10:46The way you look at industries and companies are relatively similar. It's that on the transactional side, you work on projects for a short duration of time, and then you move on and move on and move on. And hopefully over time, you have persistence and you learn more about that industry and that domain. When you go to the investment side, I started as an analyst. I wasn't, you know. And here you are looking at a wider array of companies. You're doing financial analysis, but not as detailed as you were working on one deal, one transaction for months at a time. But yet you have persistence because you're able to look at sectors and industries and companies for a longer period of time.
11:36consistently. And so you build deeper domain knowledge. And so that was one. The second is that you're no longer working for a client. You are working to find the best investments and put your own capital at risk, right? And so that was a change of the mindset of how to assess because you're not working really, you're not just servicing a client. Here you're putting your own capital at risk. And, you know, that was the first big change of just assessing how that works. And then going from, and then learning many, many, many domains. And then that was the, working with many different kinds of investors, different kinds of investment philosophies.
12:30I must have worked with 30, 40 portfolio managers across four or five investment firms. And that was like, I guess, my second era here was to learn the skills of investing. We're going to spend more time on what you've learned in a little bit. Yeah. You said something I have to explore a little bit. Sure. Sure. It was more in-depth, more intensive on the M &A side than the investing side. I'm curious as to why the two ideas that immediately pop into mind, you're covering a whole lot more companies on the investment side, but one can't help but imagine on the M &A side, hey, it's all in. You're taking the whole thing.
13:20As an investor, if you buy something and you have second thoughts, well, you sell a few million shares and you're done, you could walk away with maybe a little worse for the wear and tear. But when you buy an entire company, hey, it's really hard to unwind that, isn't it? Yeah, that's right. You know, and you're buying the whole thing or you're representing or you're selling the whole thing or you're selling pieces of it. And you're working on one company and another company, maybe two companies at a time. and you want to get every number right, every comma, every nuts and bolts to as much detail as you can.
14:01So the precision and the accuracy and the information fidelity is much higher because that's what you're just working on, that one company, that one transaction, versus, like you said, you're looking at hundreds of companies and you can make a decision with the push of a button, sell or buy. And so the time spent on that analysis will invariably be less than the time spent on this one definitive transaction. Really, really interesting. So you've been in BlackRock since 2013. 2014, obviously passive has been a huge success for BlackRock. You're on the active side. Is there any crossover? Do you get pulled into any discussions from any of the big BlackRock ETF sector funds, passive indexes?
15:01So the passive industry, passive part of BlackRock is separate to the active part. I guess what would be one trend is that we are also launching many active ETFs, which is the container in which most of the passive funds are traded at. And then there's like passive decisions. A lot of the passive indexing is now an active decision, I guess you could say. Hey, it always has been. It always has been. Right? Yes, that's right. It's, hey, hey, we're going to make it market cap index. That's an active decision. We're going to cap Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft at X percent. That's an active decision. Right?
15:43There's lots of active decisions. People don't realize there's quite a bit of active in their passive. Yeah. So now we're joining that party as well. We have now active ETS. We launched two recently, one on the AI side. So where we feel that dynamism, especially in an industry that is in rapid change, like in AI, I think you need a lot of adaptation to flexibility because things are changing so rapidly. So I want to stay with that. We're going to talk about the multiple ETFs you actively manage. But generally speaking, after passive captured more than half of the mutual funds and ETF assets, there has since been an explosion of active ETFs as well as mutual funds.
16:31Some are thematic, some are sector-based, but they all have in common that it's not relying on a passive index. What are your thoughts on the future of active management in the ETF space? Well, I think the future of active management, as you correctly pointed out, I think there are generic sections of the market where it is the broad market exposure, S &P. Those, I think, continue to be under pressure as it moves to those passive indices. But you said something very interesting there. the industry is specialized, sectors, thematics, in the container of an active ETF. I think that is more representative maybe where the future of active industry is going, where one can express a differentiated view.
17:31And invariably, that is a function of specialization, I think. and of course I'm biased in that because I am focused on a specialized area which is the technology area and within the technology area there are many further subspecializations and I think those that have broader depth of domain knowledge hopefully that is the advantage and that gets expressed in an active fund an ETF or a mutual fund or whatever and you know as I've been in this technology industry for a long time you know 20 years ago tech was 20 % of the S &P it's over 40 and it's probably going higher as now we're entering the AI era and so generalists I think are at an information asymmetry disadvantage to those that have domain specificity.
18:30And if you have better information, better knowledge, hopefully that leads to better decision-making, which will hopefully sustain the active management industry. You know, I'm so glad you said that you think the technology sector of the S &P 500 is going higher. Whenever people say to me, aren't you concerned that tech is 29 % of the S &P 500 or whatever the number happens to be? My answer is always the Magnificent Seven are responsible for something like$2.5 trillion in revenue and$500 billion in profits. I'm shocked it's only 29%. Why isn't it half of the S &P 500? This is what's driving the economy and the market.
19:15Doesn't it deserve a richer valuation? I'm curious as to your thoughts on that. 100 % agree. Okay. I 100 % agree. The multiple in aggregate has not changed dramatically, but it has driven by free cash flow. And the 40 % I'm quoting is a combination of comm services, which they carved out, which is really tech companies, with classic tech. That's over 40%. And when you look at the contribution of free cash flow, right, which is the ultimate profit metrics, it's followed. It is 40 % of the free cash flow, right? You know, the other thing about tech, I don't think people realize, it has represented the highest growth.
20:02It actually has the highest margin. It has the highest free profitable margin. People think it's unprofitable. It's like 90-some percent of tech is profitable. And the highest profit margin and the highest free cash flow growth. And that's what's driven the market cap appreciation. That is not well understood. Fair to say, this is not the late 90s dot com. No, no. You know, whimsical ideas with hardly any revenue and no profits. These companies are printing money and are wildly profitable. Yeah. And in fact, I would even make another distinct, you know, the MAG-7, the most profitable sector in all the S &P, if any, is the semiconductor industry.
20:51They even have higher margins now than the software industry. And the software industry is amongst the highest, right? So tech in general, if you say software and semis are two-thirds of all of tech. Right. They have the highest margins in the world. Huh. So they have the most profitable companies with the most growth, which generates the most free cash flow, which generates the returns, which generates the 40 % of the market cap. And most of those are Mac 7. Doesn't sound like a bad place. Doesn't sound like a bad place. To keep your pressure. And now we have AI, and it probably goes higher. It's going to go higher.
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22:47Find new episodes of Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Edition by 7am London time on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. So we were talking a little bit about what makes technology so interesting. Share a little bit of your perspective. How do you go about identifying technologies that are going to drive future growth and, as we've seen, reshape the entire economy? You know, I guess I would say, first, I'm a deconstructionist. I like to deconstruct problems, deconstruct any kind of situation, deconstruct sectors and industries. So I like to break things down. And then even before breaking them down, this kind of goes to my childhood, I always had a fascination and love of maps.
23:36Maps? Maps. Huh, that's interesting. Cartography, ancient maps. So I like to map everything out. Okay. And so like the ancient mariners would sail the oceans, you'd want a map of where you're navigating to. And so I start with that. I like to break things down. I break technology down into five or six major subsectors. And then we just continually deconstruct and break those down. And so once you start breaking these things down, you then create a map of the whole landscape. the semiconductor landscape, internet landscape, the software landscape, etc., and continually break things down. And so then they are digestible pieces.
24:23And then within those pieces, then you interrogate all of the technologies that are going. And so now you have this giant, giant map of all of technology, all reconfigured and mapped out. And then you go into detail. And then this way you start, it's kind of like a battlefield commander looking at a giant war map, and you see hotspots. This is hot, this is cold, this is hot, this is cold. And then you have systematized a way of looking at all of those different categories and technologies and subsectors. And you know all the companies that are there, you know the competitors there, and then you're observing what's hot and what's not.
25:02And so then, so that's the current, that's the initial framework. And so then you start to see trends that are happening, and you see other trends that are declining. So what's so intriguing about that is we tend to think of fundamental research, CFP-type research, as very balance sheet driven. What you're describing is something that's much more holistic and comprehensive. You're really looking at the whole ecosystem of technology to see what is moving. And you use the magic word systematize. How do you systematize that? Is it just identifying what is on a mathematical basis popping its head up?
25:50Yeah, I think if we use AI as a great framework, as a test, as a case study. So if I were to frame technology industry as we have this hardware industry, and inside the hardware industry there are many categories like smartphones and robotics and servers and things and then there's a semiconductor industry there's different kinds of chips accelerator chips memory chips foundry logic analog and then let's say the software industry there's security and applications infrastructure etc once you have mapped all of these things out and you know where all the companies or all the bodies are buried and you know who's who's competing with whom and what who's working on what along comes ai ai starts with chat gpt in gpt 3.5 in the end of 2022 early 2023 and it shows up as an application a chat application Well, the first thing you, when I saw that, I said, wow, this is going to change the world.
26:58And that was your initial response to the first demonstration you saw of ChatGVT. That and having a meeting with Jensen Huang in January, 2023, those two things kind of triggered it. Then once you see that, then you say, okay, how is this going to cascade through? You know, it's kind of like in biology, there's a thing called what I call a trophic cascade, an ecological ecosystem. And then you say AI is the trigger. The first thing you see, it's the first representation is, well, you've got to build these models. And to build the models, you need these chips. And so then you go, well, then you interrogate, well, you need these kinds of GPUs and memory and things.
27:44Then you say, well, then you need to, well, those are connected to the packaging systems. And those packaging systems are connected then to foundries. And these foundries are connected to the wafer output, which you need the equipment. And then you start to build a chain of this is what's needed to build this part. And then those chips get thrown in servers. And servers need this whole supply chain. And then those servers get then deployed in clouds. Right. And these clouds then need, oh, by the way, these things generate a lot of electricity. And that spawned the whole power energy movement. But then you know what the power transmission and grid and technical thermal equipment that needs to power and cool these cloud data centers.
28:30And so you have built that supply chain down. And then after the AI is built, you bring the AI into business at Bloomberg and BlackRock. and you bring those into a software and then you embed that in applications and then oh by the way that same ai that's being we'll we'll throw that into the self-driving car and robots and so once you see that whole chain and how that gets diffused and then you have interrogate you've already built these maps effectively of every single one of these little ecosystems and supply chains and then you see how diffusion works. And then you say, well, is it worth investing in these companies or not?
29:13And that's when then you get into the financial analysis. Really interesting. So I'm hearing infrastructure, which is everything from power to cloud, to database, to intelligence, which is the modeling. That's right. And then software, tools, applications, solutions. So this I think people tend to think of, oh, AI, that's NVIDIA. But what you're really saying is this is dozens, if not hundreds, of companies working across a whole ecosystem. That's exactly right. Now, in the public stock market, the first two years, the manifestation of what I just described or what you just eloquently described gets expressed in the Mag7.
30:02You know, if I were to, let's recompile that as a nine-layer cake. Okay, at the bottom of this cake is the power and the energy. And then that feeds the servers and chips. And then those servers and chips live in a data center cloud. That whole bottom layer, those three layers, is what I call infrastructure. OK, so that's why you're seeing most of the Mag 7 are here. So that's Google and Amazon and Microsoft, to say the very least. And now Tesla's building AI. Cloud centers, right. And then above that layer, let's call it, that's the models and the data. So this is where you also have more Mag 7.
30:52Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, some of the private companies, and now XAI. And there are six of these companies building these foundation models. And then the data, you're feeding the data. And then you have all these data companies that have, let's say, legal data, health care data, insurance data. And then some of them are proprietary data, which are helping train these models. We've seen a couple of stories about the Wall Street Journal and Reuters leasing their entire corpus of all their content to various AI models to work on. Correct. And companies like Reddit have done a deal like that. Wall Street Journal.
31:34There's some lawsuits even, New York Times. Well, they have in some instances seem to have borrowed stuff that was - Yes. You know, your$99 a year subscription to The Washington Post doesn't entitle you arguably to scrape all that data. But hey, they're cutting checks and cutting deals. And I think everybody just wants their piece of the pie. That's right. And then there are some companies, you mentioned Thomson Reuters, which is, you know, they have, they run one of the, they have one of the biggest legal data sets, you know, and they control that legal data. And so then they're putting AI on top of that.
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32:15So that's that intelligence and the data layer. And then above that layer, you have the applications, the tools and data infrastructure, and then the services, the human IT labor to implement and to the AI. Give us some names. I have a couple of things on my phone. What do you like? Oh, on the app side. Yeah. I mean, I'm using Perplexity. I use Perplexity. It's so clean and so simple. I love Perplexity. I love ChatGPT. They're slightly different. Slightly different. Right? Just the output. But they're still, and I'm finding far fewer hallucinations than I used to. Yes. Like I had Bill Dudley from the New York Fed in who was born in the late 1950s.
32:59And Chat GBT mentioned he happened to be a linebacker for the Detroit Lions in 1952. It took it a while. And there was a guy named Bill Dudley who was a, it took it a while for it to figure out. like after a certain period that eventually got cleaned up. Wait, if you're born in 57, you're probably not a pro football player in 55. But it definitely took months for it to kind of somehow recognize that. Yeah, and that's on the consumer side. And there'll be a lot more consumer apps coming. Companies like Apple have this Apple intelligence, right? And they're absolutely locked in on your privacy, but they're going to know you the best.
33:42And so there will be AI assistance coming. I hope it'll be better than Siri, which was a huge disappointment. For sure, for sure. But I would trust an Apple agent You would, exactly. to be able to say, hey, make dinner reservations for Friday at this restaurant. Here's my calendar. And invite Bob, Smith & Mary. And hopefully it can manage that. Absolutely. And even more things, even more difficult than, let's say, that. Like, oh, I need to help. I need to do my taxes. I want my taxes held. So I'm skeptical on really complex things. And at the same time, I just read yesterday the latest comparison of AI diagnostics versus doctors.
34:23AI just moved ahead. They moved ahead on things like x-rays and MRIs a while ago. But now on here's 20 data points diagnosis illness, it just moved ahead of the accuracy rate of human doctors. You said exactly the complexity of the tasks will only go higher in terms of what they will be capable to do. And these AIs are following what we call the scaling laws of scaling intelligence. But the things that they will be capable of, it's not just booking a restaurant. It will be doing very complex tasks. And so we are just at the very, very, very beginning of that. Huh, that's really fascinating. So given the mapping you do of the whole ecosystem, and then the dive into the financial background, what strategies do you then use in saying, okay, I understand the whole ecosystem, I understand the various balance sheets of these companies?
35:27How do you then pick which stock you want to own? Ah, so I have a certain small, you know, rules, I guess if you could call it that, that I've, I've, or observations that I've made over many years, especially in tech, right? Because this is a very dynamic industry. One of those is like, there's a power law. of what I believe in power laws. And it seems like every industry I've ever looked at, there's number one, a number two, and then maybe a number three. So very fat head and then a long minor tail. Yeah, let's just say 50 % market share number one, 25 % number two, and then cats and dogs. Right.
36:12Winner takes all is true everywhere. And it doesn't matter if you're selling frozen pizza to search advertising. OK, these power laws. And then because, but the thing is that you could have power laws that apply to hundreds of categories, right? It doesn't have to be all encompassing in one. And so when I look at tech and all those different categories, I firmly believe in these power law concepts that you want to be betting on number one or number two, especially number one, not even number two. You want number one, ideally. and and so are you so in many cases they're already existing players okay and so if they are already existing players and then their their hegemony is not being challenged that's kind of an easy answer you you keep riding the wave and that's why people are always complaining about mag 7 you you anticipated where i was going to go next yeah what you're essentially saying is mag 7 is they're focusing on the number seven while ignoring the magnificent side.
37:19You want to be in the number one stock everywhere, which is going to naturally force the crowd investors to the top five, 10, 15 companies. That's exactly what's been happening. The strong gets stronger. Unless there are signs of weakness, right? Is it competition? Is it missteps by management? Is it some new disruptive technology that thrusts the winners aside? What do you look for to say, hey, XYZ has been killing it for five, 10 years, but their run is over? that's exactly right usually usually these companies do not get disrupted but on occasion they do and i think the most obvious one recently was the ascendancy of nvidia versus intel right for 30 years intel what ran ran legion and and then there was a transition there are several reasons, but there was a transition to accelerated computing from CPUs, and then they've lost leadership on Foundry to TSMC.
38:30And then mobile, they lost leadership on that. They didn't engage in mobile. There are times where companies, different transitions, like if Microsoft did not pivot to the cloud from Windows, right, and the government went after them on Windows, But they were litigating yesterday's war, right? Right. But Microsoft found Azure, and then history was rewritten. And management. What do you think of the job Sadia Nadella has been? You know, people forget. That's got to be one of the great CEOs and what he has mastered in the history of business. Microsoft was dead money for a decade. For a decade. I know that sounds ridiculous to say.
39:16I know. People don't remember that. Not that Ballmer was a terrible CEO, but he was a founder and maybe just wasn't nimble enough to see the next generation. He was, like many founders, they're stuck in Microsoft 1.0. Yes. And Nadella is, I don't know, maybe he's 3.0 or 4.0. Yeah, definitely. This has got to be one of the greatest business turnarounds in history that doesn't get enough recognition. I totally, totally agree. So they have this power law concept. Going back to your idea, the other one is you need a second act. You need multiple acts. If you even look at these great companies, right?
39:59You know, Microsoft, for example, you had the Windows, and then you had a second act, which is Azure. Right. And Azure has been driving the company, right? Even Apple found the iPhone after Mac, right? And so you need companies that have – and then Amazon, I don't even know how many acts they've had. They have so many different acts. And so the great established companies can continually add multiple new businesses. Not only what you're currently doing, you've got to anticipate the next. So these power laws, do you have multiple acts? Because then that helps you have duration that you can endure.
40:40And then are you differentiated enough? But then there is a whole new class of companies, right? So there you have the MAG-7, these power law companies, but there's always, history for tech has always given you the opportunity for the new companies, the new companies to come. And so it's really the combination of let's continue to ride the power laws of the established companies, and then let's find those new companies that can rise and become the new challenger. So it's that, those are the two components of a technology fund. Absolutely fascinating.
41:45Every day. They are Bloomberg's go-to authorities on sectors, companies, and legal processes. And we do it all live each weekday. Then bring you the best conversations in our daily podcast. So be sure to search for Bloomberg Intelligence on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. Listen in the afternoons on your way home from work to catch up on the market news you miss during the business day. That is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. I'm Scarlett Fu. And I'm Paul Sweeney. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts. Before we get into the funds, I really want to just touch base on two really interesting things you said earlier.
42:21One is just generally on the valuation question with technology, and similarly the market concentration of the Magnificent Seven. Share your thoughts on that. Yeah. I think valuation, if I were to broadly say, is at a fair level. Now, there's dispersion in that. You mentioned the MAG-7 and the crowding and these giant winners. They have valuations that are higher than the rest of tech. The rest of tech has not, for the most part, recovered from the recession we had in 2022. They were way exaggerated in 21. It crashed in 22. And there's been not that much of a recovery. So a large part of tech is still at depressed levels.
43:23I would say we're back to pre-2018-17 levels, except the Mach 7 and a few companies like that that are at higher levels. But their performance have been better. Right. And, you know, it's funny. We still have over a month to go this year. This could be the first year the S &P 500 beats the NASDAQ 100 in a long time. I'm trying to remember the last time we saw that. Yeah, because a large part of the NASDAQ, especially non-MAG7, they've not done well. Large parts of software, large parts of semiconductors even. If you're not in the AI class, you've been left behind. Really interesting. So I want to talk about something that you do with your team.
44:18Every year you conduct a tour of Silicon Valley. You meet with leaders of both public and private technology companies, often 25, 30 different companies and their senior management. Tell us a little bit about what that experience is like. What do you learn? Does it actually help you with your investing process? Yeah, I think you're referring to our annual. Every summer we do a bus tour. effectively we bring 30 black rock investors um now that said we do you know 2 000 meetings a year with companies on my team wow i personally do almost a thousand meetings with companies now this is a special event because it it pulls together seven eight nine ten different teams at BlackRock, 30 plus execs and investors.
45:12And then we get on a bus and we go visit the top managements and CEOs, both public and private companies. Every year, I've been running this now 11 years. And what that does is you're on site. It's a little less formal. The companies feel more comfortable because they're hosting you, and it's really more about strategic discussions than relitigating the quarter. Right. So it is... Much longer term than the usual discussion. And, you know, it's always a great barometer of, like, what were the topics of the tour in 2014 versus 2024? And you can really see an evolutionary of what was topical. every year.
46:05And so it's a great way. It's also great for the people because many times even, you know, within a firm like BlackRock, many of the teams don't get that much time to be with each other. So it's both for representing a unified front to the company and then also within the interpersonal relationships that are strengthened. And then it's really a great barometer of what are the key topics. And then if you looked at the last two years of the bus tour, there's only one topic. AI. Yeah. So let's go before the previous two years. Give us some examples of ideas that were surfaced via this bus tour. So I'll give you some specific examples.
46:50Sure. I remember distinctly there was one about AMD. Uh-huh. When AMD had just announced its new chiplet based, Jim Keller was still working there and he was one of the famed chip designers. And they had redesigned the processor and the CPU. And that Zen architecture was the basis in which 10 years later, they've gained all that market share from Intel. But that was that day. And I remember because AMD was on its back. Uh-huh. Perennially, always a laggard, always short of capital, always like, hey, are these guys going to be here in five years? But they made that seminal bet to really change that chip architecture.
47:39And then another one I remember distinctly when there was lots of questions around Tesla. Right. Can they get the Model 3? They had not even a warehouse, a tent to make. Remember that? And everyone was saying, you're losing. 24 hours a day. They had a tent to make the Model 3. And I think that kind of unlocked. That's like, well, we're about to turn. We're about to make it. This production is about to scale. And that was another seminal moment. So you have these events like that that come through. Let me ask you, relative to Tesla, an ecosystem question. So for the longest time, Tesla had the market all to itself.
48:23Recently, I saw a chart that showed for the first time Tesla's market share dropped below 50 percent, not because their sales have fallen, but because there are so many other players in the EV space. I can't help but give either credit or blame to Jeff Bezos, who so totally destroyed sector after sector after sector, that when Musk came along, the automobile industry said, hey, we saw what Amazon did. We better get our act together pretty quickly. Any truth to that urban legend? I would say in EV, just pure EV cars, Tesla's share and its ascendancy, the entire market, especially in the US, especially in the West, not China, has definitely slowed, if not stalled.
49:16Right. Arguably, I had the CEO of Lucid in here who made a very aggressive claim that whether it was battery technology, motors, range, software, Tesla was the leader, and Lucid has leapfrogged them. We could debate that, but it's a credible, whether it's true or not, it's a credible claim which would not have been remotely credible five years ago, even three years ago. I would say to that, and I don't want to comment on that specific company, but companies like that, they're selling a$100 ,000 car. Right. Tesla's selling a$40 ,000 car. The$50 ,000 and up market. Is very different. Which is most EVs.
50:04Right.
50:08You know, if you go in the past, the greatest, the best-selling single car was like the Toyota Corolla. Uh-huh. You know, like a couple million a year. And you look at Tesla's Model 3 and Y, and they're also in that range. Coming up on that anyway. So basically, if you're in that kind of category, you get to a certain market level, a saturation level. and I think that in the West and then with the more reticence to adopt EV and still in the United States, you kind of have a certain ceiling. You need, and this is why there's so much discussion about Tesla either having a lower cost RoboTaxi or a lower cost car to get at the market sub$50 ,000 where you have, that unlocks a market three times bigger.
50:57It's like a$30 ,000 car or a$25 ,000 car But I think Tesla's main pivot, really, and even Elon would tell you, it's not about the car. The car is a mere means to deliver autonomy. Right. And it's a robotics company, right? And autonomy is the big unlock, not selling the car itself. That'll be interesting. We've been waiting autonomy for a while. Yes. One can't help but wonder how much easier it would be if built into the roads and other vehicles were some form of RF device that allows other cars to know where – here's where the exit is. Here's where the lanes are. Here's where other cars are. Like there could be an infrastructure build out that makes that broader.
51:51When's the last time you were in L.A.? This year. This year. Okay. Did you see Waymos running around in L.A.? I did not. I did not. So Waymo is now operating in Los Angeles, and they're everywhere in San Francisco, Phoenix. The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed. It's within grasp, finally. It's always been three years in the future, but it really is now, I think. So now let's bring this conversation full circle back to the funds you run. Let's talk about BAI, which is the iShares AI Innovation and Technology. Active ETF. Tell us a little bit about that. That's a fairly concentrated portfolio, isn't it?
52:33That's right. We just launched this. This is our first foray. We have two ETFs now. We're jumping on that ETF bandwagon, if you will. Yeah, I think that might work out for BlackRock. Yeah, that's right here. I hear it. But this one is, you know, I think, you know, hopefully we look back. This is the second year of AI, as I would say. And I think this is going to be a decade-long, if not longer, trend. And we are trying to express in a concentrated way 30-plus companies in an ETF that represents this whole stack of AI. From NVIDIA down to the smallest company? All the way up to the apps, from the compute to the apps and everything in between.
53:26And I do know one thing. So we want a concentrated exposure to the builders of AI, companies building the key elements of AI. And I do know one thing. It will be, it's going to change dramatically. What we think is the companies of today might not be. And so we need, I feel like, especially when there's high rate of change in the early days of an industry like this, we need dynamic adaptation. We need to be flexibly and adaptive. And so to lock yourself into a fixed passive structure versus a dynamically changing structure, that's really the goal of this ETF. Let's talk about iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF, or TEK, broader portfolio, 50 to 70 global tech companies.
54:17Tell us what that focus is. That is basically the ETF version of our mutual fund. And so that includes tech companies, not only ETF, not only AI companies, but broad tech globally, larger companies. But there's lots of tech companies that don't really have that much to do with AI, building AI. And so you're going to get the whole totality of tech in that. So you said something before that has stayed with me about looking at the entire map of the ecosystem and watching what becomes hot and what fades. Technological change today is just so rapid. It changes at light speed. How do you keep up? How do you stay aligned with the industry dynamics as they evolve in real time?
55:10It seems like it's not even quarter to quarter anymore. It's minute to minute. Maybe not minute to minute, but you're absolutely right. In AI, so there are different time scales according to different industries. So let's say in AI, you're right. It might literally be minute to minute, day to day. Okay. On the smartphone, things are more stayed. They're slower paced. And so you have a spectrum of rates of change. That's number one. So number two, how do we keep up? I mean, you know, I read a lot. And not only read, you have to stay attuned to all this new multimedia. There's so many experts and podcasts like yours and scientists.
56:04and then we do like, I do personally a thousand company meetings a year. That's amazing. That's four a day if you're working 50 weeks a year. Yes. I mean, yes. I do many, many, many, many meetings a week. And so then you assimilate all this information and then you are all, I'm always doing the calculus. Who's winning, who's losing? Who's winning, who's losing? what's changing, what's not. So how do you balance having a long-term perspective for a technology like AI with you run a fund, you run a couple of funds, you get judged every quarter. That's a very short term. And Wall Street is notorious for being too short term focused.
56:54How do you manage the trade-off between, hey, this is going to be a dominant technology over the next five years to, uh-oh, it's September 30th, and we know what happens starting in October. How do you manage that trade-off? That is the central question, because we are being challenged all the time. You know, I feel you get some latitude if you have already a historical track record. So, for example, 2022 was just hell on earth for tech. Not only was it hell on earth for tech, it was the first year in over 40 years where both stocks and bonds were down double digits. Like once every half century.
57:41And then the only saving grace was 2021 was so spectacular that it felt like, all right, we're giving back some profits. But it didn't feel like it was 07, 08, 09, which was - 2022 was worse than 2008, 2009. For technology. For tech, oh yeah, for sure. Really? That's a big statement. Because in 2009, it was a universal collapse. That's correct. It centered mostly in, you know, banks, finance, real estate. Tech went down, of course, but it didn't go down more. In 2022, it was predominantly a tech collapse. But it wasn't like the dot-com implosion where the NASDAQ 100 fell 80-plus percent. That's right.
58:30It wasn't. It wasn't. But it was still no fun. Yeah. It was down 30-plus percent. Yeah. Lost a third of its value. That's a big hit. But in my career, 2022 was the worst year. Huh. And so do you have the latitude and the confidence and support by investors and management to allow you to continue? And then obviously the last couple of years have been good, right? And so does everybody get that, avail that opportunity? And that goes to the short term, long term. but I try not to focus on the short term. And we're trying to make systematic bets to the best of our ability, especially an active manager.
59:29You need to show, because we hold generally fewer companies, and you need a couple of years to show that those longer duration bets start to manifest. And so if I was always chasing the quarter, now you're trying to be... You're not a momentum trader. Yeah, exactly. And that's really kind of at the end. We're saying our decisions that are born out of all of this domain and expertise and all of this analytical rigor, and then we express that for a multi-year basis. And then that ultimately comes through. And if we were to continually shift by the wind every quarter, you kind of lose your soul effectively of what you stand for.
1:00:23And so we try not to do that. Obviously in 2022, we had to make a lot of adjustments. But other than that, we kind of stick to the same framework. Really fascinating. Bloomberg Invest returns to New York on March 3rd and 4th, where the sharpest voices across banking, asset management, and private capital will discuss the forces reshaping finance. Powered by Bloomberg's Global Newsroom and data from the Bloomberg Terminal, this flagship summit will cover everything from AI-driven disruption and central bank policy shifts to the emerging risks and opportunities in private credit. Join the conversation and register today at bloomberglive.com slash invest.
1:01:02All right, so I only have you for another a few minutes, let's jump to our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests, starting with, what's keeping you entertained these days? What are you listening to, watching, streaming, etc.? Okay. I don't get a chance to watch that much TV and streaming, but streaming shows, the ones I've recently seen, I really like Shogun. Oh, really? The new one? The new one, the remake from the 80s. Three-body problem I enjoyed. I love that. I couldn't get through the book, but the show was great. Yeah. But I watch a lot more. I'm a history guy, so I love Epic History on YouTube.
1:01:50It's absolutely fantastic. Epic History. Epic History TV, yeah. It's fantastic. I watch a lot of science stuff, like World Science Festival of Columbia, professor here, Brian Green. Oh, sure. He's a prior guest. He's great. I also like chess. I watch chess. You watch chess? Yes, I love watching chess. So like Chess Dog is a great show, especially the old matches of the great players like Bobby Fischer and Paul Morphy and things. And the podcast, I think the best podcast for me is The Ancients. The Ancients. I'm going to check. This is an ancient civilizations in ancient history. So those are what, yeah, that's what kind of occupies me.
1:02:38I don't do as much business shows or business pods. I listen to yours a few times and a few others, but I'm more about, you know, I'm in finance all day long. I don't really need more finance. So I go for my love of history is probably the. I have the same issue. It's like I don't want to hear a guest I'm going to interview on another show. I don't want to repeat questions or steal questions. I want to bring a fresh approach. And when you're immersed in it all day, you just don't want to go that way. Next question. Who were your early mentors who helped to shape your career? The mentor would imbue a personal one-on-one tutoring and things.
1:03:30I didn't have too many of those. I would say my earliest mentors, I go to high school. Those were my formative years in Illinois. My English teacher, who was also my debate coach, my history teacher, and my chemistry teacher, I look back and they really helped form who I am today. And then in the professional world, I would say I go to, and this is like BlackRock when I joined, it was Tom Callen who hired me. And Tom said, not so much as a mentor, but he said, here are the keys. And you express your creativity and build the business. And he gave me that latitude. So I give credit to Tom Callen.
1:04:19But I didn't have too many people mentoring me of doing this. It was more – most of my mentors are dead. I have people that have influenced me like Napoleon and Frank Lloyd Wright and Beethoven and others. So you grew up in Illinois. Did you do any of the Frank Lloyd Wright tours? Oh, yeah. I did all that. Right. So we spent every Thanksgiving in Wilmette. And so I've done that whole run. Yeah. And I have to assume you've been to Falling Waters, right? I've not been to Falling Water. So I... Taliesin. Oh, really? That's on my list. In 2017, I bought a car in Indianapolis, flew out, test drove it, signed the papers, drove home, and halfway home was Falling Waters.
1:05:06And we were there the first day it was open in, I want to say it was early March, and there was like a light coat of snow. And you went inside as well? Oh, yeah, we did the whole tour. It's absolutely astonishing. Not just because how delightful the building is, but never before and probably never since will a house be so ideally suited to its surroundings. Yes, absolutely, yes. it's always interesting when you see oh you could see the thought that went into every curve every line every detail it's really amazing the genesis of that my interest in architecture I read The Fountainhead you read that book Anne Rand I slogged through it in college and basically gave up on her because of that book oh you gave up but like that really it's such a painful book It is, yeah.
1:06:04But it spawned. There's some ideas in it that are interesting. The idea, especially the architecture. That really triggered, oh, architecture. Right. So since you mentioned The Fountainhead, let's talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading right now? Okay, there are certain books that are influential to me. I grew up in, people on the show, I grew up before the internet. As did I. As you did. I don't think we're that far apart in age. And I was a nerd. I was a total nerd. Same. And so The Lord of the Rings. I knew you were going to go there. How did you know that? Because I reread The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings every summer throughout my teen years.
1:06:49Oh, my God. And someone just told me that the character actor who played Smeigl in the movie actually narrates the book on the Audible version. and people have told me it's not like listening to a book on tape. It's like a full radio play that he does voices. That's right. It's supposed to be fantastic. Yeah. I even, yeah, I loved it. And then I went even, I went really deep. The Silmarillion and the 20 ,000 year prehistory to the Lord of the Rings. I went that. How far afield did you go in sci-fi? Heinlein, Philip K. Dick. Heinlein, Philip K. Dick. CJ Shera. I don't know CJ Shara, but... Pride of Shannur, strong recommend.
1:07:34Pride of Shannur? Pride of Shannur. Shannur, Shannur. So just fascinating book. Give us one or two more books, and then we'll get to our last two books. Currently, I'm reading, I read a lot of history books. I'm reading three books. I browse, I read a lot parallel, and I tend to not to finish it all, but I'm reading right now Campaigns of Napoleon by David Chandler. I'm reading The Fall of Carthage by Adrian Goldsworthy, and SPQR, Mary Beard. And I just bought my 16 Memorable Games by Bobby Fischer. I just wanted to go read all the - Did you read, I forgot who the author was, but there's a great Genghis Khan biography.
1:08:11Ah, yes. That's really interesting. I could see the book cover. Oh, I want to, yes, I would like to buy that. But I have one other, I have a book recommendation. Okay, you tell me, you tell me. And it's called How to Invent Everything, A Survival Guide to the Stranded Time Traveler. And it's just a history of technology, but they use the, whatchamacallit, the cheat is they're using the guide for time travel as, hey, if you ever get stuck in ancient history, here are the tools you can build and here's how you should do it. And it's just a history of technology 10 ,000 years ago to today. Absolutely fascinating.
1:08:4810 ,000 years ago. Right, going back to the invention of glass, the invention. I like to collect some of those ancient artifacts. Oh, that would be, that sounds like fun. All right, so I only have you for two minutes. Let me get to my last two questions. Yes, last two questions. That's the problem with sci-fi geeks. Yes, okay. I didn't know you were a sci-fi geek. Oh, absolutely. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in technology investing? Not so much technology, but let's say investing in general. I think you've got to be a great thinker. It's not so much the finance.
1:09:22Finance can be taught easy. It's about thinking. and it is about a flexibility to have a, to be reason and plan and think at a, you know, in a kind of a holistic and a flexible manner because AI is going to do so many of the tasks and they will often know more than you about any specific domain. So you need to be above that in a way, almost like an architect would. Makes a lot of sense. And our final question, what do you know about the world of technology today you wish you knew back in the mid-'90s when you were really starting out? But if I knew how this would unfold in the Silicon Valley, I would have just gone straight to Silicon Valley, the company maybe instead of being on the investment side.
1:10:29I don't know. It is a double-edged question because I like the dynamic exposure to many companies. Plus the path you've taken is so fascinating. I would say another point for the young people, always bet on the future, not on the current past. Bet on the future. What a great way to wrap this up. Tony, thank you for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Tony Kim, Managing Director at BlackRock, where he heads the Fundamental Equity Technology Group. BlackRock manages about$11 trillion in assets. If you enjoy this conversation, well, be sure and check out any of the 500 previous discussions we've had over the past 10 years.
1:11:16You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, Bloomberg, wherever you find your favorite podcast. And be sure and check out my new podcast, At The Money, short conversations with experts about topics affecting your money, earning it, spending it, and most of all, investing it. at The Money, wherever you find your favorite podcast and in the Masters in Business feed. I would be remiss if I did not thank the crack team that helps with these conversations together each week. My audio engineer is Meredith Frank. My producer is Anna Luke. Sean Russo is my researcher. Sage Bauman is the head of podcasts at Bloomberg.
1:11:54I'm Barry Ritholtz. You've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.
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From the publisher
Barry Ritholtz speaks with Tony Kim, Managing Director and Head of the Fundamental Equities’ Global Technology Team at BlackRock. Prior to joining BlackRock in 2013, Tony held key roles at institutions like Artisan Partners, Neuberger Berman, and Merrill Lynch. He is also a member of the Advisory Board for Columbia Business School’s Digital Future Initiative. On this episode, Barry and Tony discuss the success of passive investing at BlackRock, the general tech investing landscape, and what it takes to build a career that combines a passion for technology with finance.
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