In short
Alex Morris discusses how to learn from Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meetings, distilling Buffett and Munger’s investing principles into “Buffett and Munger Unscripted,” plus how he applies them via his concentrated TSOH Investment Research service.
Guest backgrounds
Alex Morris is founder of TSOH Investment Research (launched 2021 after 10 years as a buy-side equities analyst). He has a bachelor’s and MBA from the University of Florida, is a Berkshire shareholder since 2011, and has attended multiple shareholder meetings (including the 2026 meeting). He writes under a pseudonym (Science of Hitting/TSOH).
Key claims
Investing success is primarily a temperament problem, not an IQ problem. Investors should be patient, independent of crowd opinion, and learn continuously (including from mistakes). Transparency and “show me the incentive” help maintain honesty. Volatility helps only those who know values.
Notable examples
Berkshire’s insurance “float” enabling long-term capital (e.g., Coca-Cola bought 1988/89 and last share in 1994). GEICO missing telematics; Progressive outgrowing GEICO. Buffett’s pivot to Apple despite earlier “too hard” comments. Morris’s own holdings: Microsoft and Berkshire (since 2011), Disney’s slow pivot vs Netflix, Peloton’s post-pandemic drawdown and subscription “razor blade” model, and Dollar Tree’s niche strategy (with Family Dollar history).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOJourney to Investment Research
2:17 to 3:06
Explore Alex's background and the inspiration behind his book.
“This week on the podcast, another extra special guest.”
Career Path and Education
3:07 to 4:30
Alex discusses his education and unexpected journey into finance.
“You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.”
Lessons from Buy-Side Experience
4:30 to 6:23
Insights from Alex's decade as a buy-side equity analyst.
“When I went to school, I really didn't have any idea what I was going to do.”
The Launch of TSOH
6:23 to 7:40
Discover the motivations behind launching his independent research service.
“Here's what Billionaire's morning routine is like.”
The Science of Hitting
7:40 to 9:16
Understanding the significance of Ted Williams' analogy in investment.
“If you Google image search this, there's a strike zone and Ted Williams literally figured out every position a ball can be thrown.”
Transparency in Investing
9:16 to 11:16
Alex explains his approach to transparency and portfolio management.
“And we were college kids with no money, so we slept in the car, I think, one or two nights.”
Learning from Mistakes
11:16 to 13:20
The importance of learning from errors according to Buffett and Munger.
“I recall way back when watching some talking heads on TV and when they say, we like Google or whatever stock it happened to be, the immediate question was, what does that mean?”
Becoming a Better Investor
13:20 to 14:01
The ongoing journey of improving as an investor and maintaining an open mind.
“Is the whole transparency an attempt to stay honest within the Munger framework?”
Learning from Munger and Buffett
14:01 to 15:04
Explore the significance of continuous learning in investing and adapting to market changes.
“The compounding of knowledge that you're referring to, I think that's a Munger observation.”
Disney's Strategic Challenges
15:04 to 17:09
Discuss the reasons behind Disney's struggles in the changing media landscape and its comparison to Netflix.
“And the world's obviously changed very significantly.”
Show all 35 chapters
Peloton's Journey: A Case Study
17:09 to 19:14
Analyze Peloton's rapid growth and subsequent decline, examining structural versus cyclical issues.
“and also their ability, how they had to price their products and the reach and engagement of those products.”
Dollar Tree's Unique Position
19:14 to 20:46
Evaluate Dollar Tree's retail strategy and how it stands out in a competitive landscape.
“Another one that I bought recently or relatively recently is Dollar Tree.”
Dollar Tree's Unique Position
22:50 to 23:21
Evaluate Dollar Tree's retail strategy and how it stands out in a competitive landscape.
“While the landscape shifts, one thing remains the same.”
The Book Writing Process
23:21 to 28:01
Discover Alex Morris's methodology in writing his book about Buffett and Munger.
“You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.”
Insights on Meeting Discussions
28:01 to 29:16
Explore the evolution of discussions in investment meetings over time.
“And like, oh, I see what this should look like.”
Temperament vs. IQ in Investing
29:16 to 31:44
Understand how emotional stability outweighs intelligence in investment success.
“so it hopefully could be a good project.”
Navigating Volatility in Investing
31:44 to 33:17
Learn how to maintain a level-headed investment strategy amidst market volatility.
“How do the same principles that are espoused by Buffett and Munger apply to all these wildly different environments?”
Lessons from Berkshire's Insurance Business
33:17 to 35:08
Discover the critical lessons about long-term mindset from Berkshire's insurance practices.
“But the idea of acting based on what the facts tell you as opposed to a short-term weighing machine is the right mindset to have in investing.”
Investment Decision Selectivity
35:08 to 36:52
Examine the importance of selectivity in making significant investment decisions.
“You're better off not writing bad business, not writing any business than writing bad business.”
Buffett's Tech Evolution: From Aversion to Apple
36:52 to 40:08
Learn about Buffett's significant shift in perspective towards technology investments.
“Hey, you're only going to make 20 meaningful investment decisions.”
Adapting to Change in Investing
40:08 to 42:00
Understand the necessity of adapting to changes in industries for successful investing.
“And, you know, Warren specifically talked about on CNBC when they bought.”
The Importance of Adaptability in Business
42:00 to 42:35
Learn why adaptability is crucial for business managers and investors.
“And you think the prominent examples that they gave over time of the greatest businesses are newspapers and other things that are either greatly changed or gone.”
The Importance of Adaptability in Business
42:36 to 43:17
Learn why adaptability is crucial for business managers and investors.
“You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.”
Exploring Buffett and Munger's Partnership
44:27 to 45:18
Discuss the unique relationship and influence between Buffett and Munger.
“Alex Morris is my extra special guest this week.”
Investing in Businesses vs. Stocks
45:19 to 46:44
Understand the shift from stock trading to investing in whole businesses.
“he ran up into the point in time where they became, you know, friends with each other in the decades after, it was a cigar butt strategy and a traditional value investing strategy.”
The Risks of Overvaluing Price in Investing
46:45 to 48:39
Learn the dangers of focusing too much on price when investing.
“What would have happened if you paid 10 percent more for that?”
Expanding Your Circle of Competence
48:40 to 49:40
Explore ways to expand your investment knowledge without overconfidence.
“If you become overly focused on price as the driver of your decision making, I think that's kind of a flawed way to do things.”
Market Predictions and Success
49:41 to 51:47
Delve into the implications of making investment decisions based on market forecasts.
“Both Buffett and Munger have emphasized staying within one's circle of competence.”
Berkshire Hathaway's Succession Planning
51:48 to 53:56
Discuss Warren Buffett's approach to succession and leadership at Berkshire.
“market, but a great deal about the forecaster.”
Capital Allocation under Greg Abel
53:57 to 56:00
Consider the future of capital allocation strategies with Greg Abel at the helm.
“what does the record tell us about how he set up his succession and what did his Thanksgiving letter last year add?”
Capital Allocation Under Greg Abel
56:00 to 59:03
Discussion on the capital allocation strategy of Berkshire Hathaway under Greg Abel, focusing on buybacks and acquisitions.
“interesting, are not really Berkshire specific.”
The Future of Berkshire's Annual Meeting
59:03 to 1:00:07
Exploration of the relevance of the Omaha annual meeting in the future and the changing dynamics of its audience.
“And the other one is now sitting in the audience.”
Value Investors and Their Mindset
1:00:07 to 1:02:05
Insight into the characteristics of Berkshire shareholders and the value investor community, including personal stories of mentorship.
“Is this primarily Main Street or is this more professional investors or some obvious combination?”
Influential Investors and Recommended Reads
1:02:05 to 1:06:31
Discussion on influential figures in investing and recommended reading materials for aspiring investors.
“So I want you to address Buffett and Munger as well as anybody else who might have shaped the curve of your career.”
Advice for Aspiring Investors
1:06:31 to 1:07:44
Valuable advice for recent graduates entering the field of investing and reflections on learning from experience.
“I think it was 700 or 800 pages, but then I had to go through, okay, which of these comments on value investing do I really need to keep?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. Advisors, your clients count on bonds for income and stability, not unwanted surprises. That's why Vanguard builds institutional quality bond funds. They're designed to help portfolios remain steady when markets don't. Whether index or active, Vanguard aims for consistent bond performance with a low-cost edge, which helps clients earn returns that compound over time. A rigorous approach to risk management holds it all together. The goal? Keeping income instability in and unwelcome surprises out, because fixed income shouldn't feel like a roller coaster.
0:43Explore institutional quality bond funds from Vanguard. Learn more at Vanguard.com slash audio. That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful.
1:31Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts. Why did I search the internet for answers to my cold sore problem? Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic sores in various stages of ooze. I can clear my search history, but I can never unsee that. Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care, fast. Healthcare just got less painful. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This week on the podcast, another extra special guest.
2:23Alex Morris is the author of Buffett and Munger Unscripted. Fascinating story of how he put this book together by reading and watching 31 years of annual shareholder meetings, thousands and thousands of questions, hundreds and hundreds of hours of video distilled into a fairly digestible compendium. I thought the book was fascinating and the conversation was fascinating. And I think you will, too, with no further ado. My interview of Alex Morris.
3:05I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Alex Morris. He is the founder of TSOH Investment Research Service, launched in 2021 after 10 years as a buy side equities analyst. He is the author of Buffett and Munger Unscripted, three decades of investment and business insights from the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meetings. Amazon named it one of the best books of 2025. It's pretty beefy. I've been reading it over the past, I don't know, eight months. It's about 500 pages. And I have really, really been enjoying it.
3:50In fact, I've been enjoying it so much that I reached out to Alex and said, let's talk about your research and the book. He has been a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder since 2011, attended multiple annual meetings, including the 2026 meeting, the first of the Greg Abel era. Alex Morris, welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you for having me. As I was saying to you before, Bloomberg headquarters is a nice place to be. I'm going to drop my resume on the way out. So before we get to your resume, let's roll back to what led you to where you are today. Both a bachelor's and an MBA from University of Florida. Was finance always the career plan?
4:36It was not. When I went to school, I really didn't have any idea what I was going to do. My dad's a plumber, so at first I did a building construction and took a couple physics classes and some other things that kind of threw me for a loop. And then I got my first internship working down in Miami outside all day. and fairly quickly realized, let me find something a little easier, so I went to finance. What were you doing working outside all day in Miami over the summers? What were we doing? We were working on a high-rise that was being built, and I spent most of the time running from the rain that came every single day at noon or 1 o 'clock.
5:05I spent a summer in college working with a crew, building decks, swinging a sledge, breaking up concrete of an old pool to put in a new pool, and nothing makes you want to buckle down and study more than physical labor. It's like, oh my God, God, this is really hard work. Yes. I have tremendous respect for people who do that. It really forces you to see the world in a different way, doesn't it? Yes, it's very different work than sitting and writing a book, as you and I both know. So after you get your bachelor's and MBA in finance, you take the CFA exam. It's a two-part exam. You spend a decade as a buy-side equities analyst.
5:44What did you learn from those 10 years on the buy-side? Yeah, a lot. I kept my head down and learned as much as I could every single day. The first job I started at, I was brought in and basically told, hey, you're running all the research for equities, but also you're a secretary and you're doing the trading, you're doing everything else. So I got a lot of good experience there. But it was a role where my boss really was like, just go do what you think makes sense to do, which works really well with my kind of disposition. As time went on, I learned a lot from making a lot of mistakes. That's a really good way to learn.
6:17A ton of reading, a ton of writing online and sharing stuff with people, getting good feedback. So, yeah, it's just time and effort. That's one of the big problems with everybody. Here's what Billionaire's morning routine is like. You seem to learn more, all of us learn more from our errors and mistakes than we do from our victories. Do these guys have anything to say about that? Oh, yeah. No, they say learn all you can, particularly from other people's mistakes if you can. But that seems to be hard to avoid, at least for at least for me and most of us. So so after 10 years on the buy side, you launch an independent research service in 2021.
6:53What made you take that leap? What was that initial couple of years like? Yeah, I've been writing online going back to college and I continue to write online under a pseudonym, Science of Hitting or TSOH. And again, I had built I had built a network over time. I really enjoyed the process of writing. I started making some supplemental income through writing and I looked around and I saw people like Ben Thompson Estrotechery and other other people who had built a business online sharing their research if you want to call it that So when I saw substack come around and it went from having to understand anything on the technical side to Write in word copy paste, which is more my speed for tech technology I decided to give it a shot.
7:33I said give myself a year and doesn't work out I'll go find another traditional job, but I want to see if I can do this And thankfully, it's worked out. And the science of hitting was a book by Ted Williams that Buffett loves to cite for the whole strike zone analogy. If you Google image search this, there's a strike zone and Ted Williams literally figured out every position a ball can be thrown. Just picture 12 by 20, however many it is, and figured out the percentage hitting average of where when a ball hit that spot where he was likely to hit it. Buffett loves that analogy. Why did you name your research service after it?
8:16I'd say partly luck. I don't know if at the time I knew it was such an analogy that I like so much, and that would be a good name to keep for the next, you know, coming up on 15 years now. But it really spoke to the way I think about investing in terms of being patient and then also making big swings when you get the chance to. Waiting for your pitch, and when it finally comes, don't be afraid. So I'm going to assume you're not averse to a concentrated portfolio. I am not. How many holdings do you typically have at any given time? In the range of 10 to 15. Oh, really? That's very concentrated.
8:48So big swing after waiting for your pitch. Yeah. And there's names, like you said, I've owned Berkshire since 2011. I've owned Microsoft since 2011. Most of the positions have been in there for a period of years. So it tends to be things that I've come to know quite well and have gotten familiar and comfortable with. So this raises the obvious question. When did you first become enamored of Buffett and Munger, if you've been a shareholder since 2011. When did they first show up on your radar? Yeah, late 2000s when I was in school, and I stumbled across the letters, and actually a buddy and I both became obsessed with it, and we were at the University of Florida, and we actually drove to one of the annual meetings, which is...
9:27In Omaha? In Omaha. So it's like a 10-hour drive? No, it's like 20 or 25. Oh, really? It's a long way. Wow. And we were college kids with no money, so we slept in the car, I think, one or two nights. Wow. So, yeah, we were very interested in it. Wait, you're college kids. You have no money. And you didn't own Berkshire A or B back then. I think I bought one share, a B share, to be clear. Just to be able to go in. For the sake of getting in, yeah. It's open to anybody who's a shareholder. What was that first trip as college kids to the Woodstock of capitalism in Omaha? I mean, it's tough to remember now.
10:03I don't know how productive the trip was, but it was more just in awe of seeing everything and, you know, really starting to learn about investing. And I didn't do much. Now when I go, I go to a bunch of events and other things and network with people. At that time, it was walking around the convention center, eating dilly bars, something like that. So you have sort of the opposite version, the inverse version of how the sell side or typical newsletters operate. You disclose your buys or sells before you make the trade. You tell your subscribers, this is what I'm planning on doing. Why run it that way?
10:39it's the inverse of the typical way. Yeah, I think one part of finance that I didn't love was what I considered a lot of talking about things that weren't really particularly meaningful and a lot of discussions about things like we like Google stock, for example, but then not a discussion around position sizing or when you like Google, what are you going to sell to fund Google? Those kind of more detailed discussions around portfolio management and decision making. So when I launched TSOH, I thought One way to differentiate this is to just take everything away and be completely transparent about all my decisions, my returns, etc.
11:15And I thought there would be a group of people, maybe not the largest group, but a group of people who would connect with that and, you know, could build a sustainable business as a result. I recall way back when watching some talking heads on TV and when they say, we like Google or whatever stock it happened to be, the immediate question was, what does that mean? Right. Does that mean you own it? Does that mean you're holding it? But liking a stock is very different than I have allocated 6 % of my portfolio to this position. Correct. And post-analyst scandal, they used to put the disclosures on screen.
11:50We seem to have moved away from that. Yeah. I mean, it's tricky. It's tough to get on there and kind of explain these things. And a lot of it's not black or white. It's in the gray, a lot of these decisions. And there's a lot of mental accounting and decision-making. And I think it's just a reality of being an individual and being an investor and is figuring out what are you comfortable with and what game are you trying to play. And I think talking about that, it resonates with some people who are kind of honest with themselves about what this game actually is. So I like the 100 % transparency and the disclosure prior to trading, but it raises one question.
12:24When you are this public, does it make it more difficult to change your mind or to say, hey, we got this wrong and we're now selling this? Yeah, and that's probably fair. It's never fun to be wrong, of course. it's less fun to be wrong when you're telling people that you were wrong and you're dealing with the pain of that. You know, the way I write my research, there's a lot of, I kind of view it as an ongoing discussion for a given name. So there's a lot of opportunities to link back to prior work and go, hey, this call is looking good for XYZ reasons or looking bad for XYZ reasons. It allows for a continuity of thought and a level of honesty and transparency that I think kind of makes it easier to deal with that issue.
13:04The reason I asked this quote, this question was due to a quote right from the book, which is Charlie Munger's show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome. So first of all, I think that could be the most quoted line of his of all time. But how do you contextualize that? Is the whole transparency an attempt to stay honest within the Munger framework? Absolutely. And it's, yeah, it's part of, and it goes back to writing when I was much younger and didn't know nearly as much as I hopefully do today. It's part of this just being a continual learning process. And it's with the subscriber and it's also me on my own.
13:45And I think we're collectively moving to a place where we can become better investors or at least more thoughtful investors. So I like that concept of becoming a better investor. I don't remember if it was, The problem with the book is, was that a Buffett quote? Was that a Munger quote? They all kind of blur together. The compounding of knowledge that you're referring to, I think that's a Munger observation. I forget as well. But one thing that he definitely said was Warren Buffett got better after 65. We're both learning machines and we spend most of the day reading. Explain. these guys are running hundreds of billions of dollars or at least they were they spend their day reading yeah I think it's all about trying to expand your circle of competence and learning as much as you can as we said you're learning from the mistakes and the mistakes of others and it's a game where you know I'm thinking as I'm getting a little bit older and go running some time my knee hurts more and more well investing I'm still quite young because in theory I could be doing this for another 40 50 years so and all I need to do is be able to sit into a chair which isn't that difficult so yeah as long as you put the time and the effort in and remain open-minded, which is a huge thing that I think, especially traditional value investors, Buffett and Munger fans, the last 15 years have been a good lesson in that in terms of being flexible and willing to learn.
15:07And the world's obviously changed very significantly. Just turning your mind off from trying to learn about tech, as an example, you can't really do that anymore in today's world. You have to be able to at least try to learn about some of these things. So I know at TSOH, you cover a number of individual names, things like Netflix, Microsoft. 10 to 15 names is pretty tight. Tell us about some of your other names, and you're sitting tight with all of these. Yeah, so I've owned, as I said before, I've owned Microsoft and Berkshire for a long time. I've owned Disney for a while, which has not worked out, but thankfully it taught me things about the business that then led to a decent Netflix investment back in 22.
15:46So what is that? I was curious why you think it didn't work out. Was it Netflix as a threat, or was it something else? They saw where the world was going too late, and their ability to truly pivot and make the investments they needed to make, they were behind. I think they've done better than a lot of their peers, at least among the legacy media companies, but they were slow to the party, and I think, especially with ESPN, they've struggled with what really is our strategy going forward. They have their strategy in the entertainment programming side, But in live programming in sports, it's still really a challenge from how do we get from A to B over time?
16:22And obviously sports are expensive, so it's been an issue for them. And yet, go back a few decades, they were very aggressive. They bought Star Wars. They bought Pixar. Those seem like, wow, that's$4 billion. That seems crazy. Meanwhile, it's been a giant moneymaker for them. Was it just a change of leadership at Disney? What led to this failing to recognize the changing world? Yeah, I think the media companies got lulled into a place where they thought Netflix or these other channels were incremental as opposed to replacing what they were doing. And when they then figured that out, you know, you got through a period where Netflix had been investing very aggressively and was going global and getting scale in a way that nobody else has basically been able to catch up to.
17:08and it changed a lot of their negotiating position amongst each other and also their ability, how they had to price their products and the reach and engagement of those products. It's just they're in a really tough place or have become in a really tough place relative to Netflix's rise. Give us one more holding that is intriguing. Yeah, one that I at one point would have probably thought I'd never own. It speaks to what I said before of reading about a company and writing a company up and following it for a couple of years is Peloton. they brought on when they brought barry mccarthy on as ceo who used to be at spotify that's where my interest came from um the company went through a transition process that still continues to this day uh he has since left um but the stock got to a point where well it appeared to be very cheap and i think pandemic post pandemic yeah this is a crazy run-up when everyone was stuck at home and couldn't get to the gym yeah obviously as did others in that space but they were the poster child, right?
18:03Yeah. I mean, I think it was$150 stock at one point and recently it traded below $4. Wow. So that's quite a drawdown. That's 97 % drop. That's amazing. Yeah, it's pretty good. I think there's this question of what are they dealing with that cyclical versus structural. And I think people have a certain view on it that is kind of informed by their anecdotal experience. But you looked at there's other industries like mattresses, for example, where volumes are still meaningfully below what they were during the pandemic. I think most people would argue that's probably not structural. People still need mattresses.
18:32But this supply-demand got out of whack. In Peloton's case, they went from 500 ,000 paid customers to 3 million in 36 months. Paying a monthly subscription to be on top of it. So it's a little bit of a razor blade model as well. Now they've bled off half a million, so they're at 2.5. But if you step back in the fullness of time and went, hey, you guys are going to go from 519 to 2.5 and 26, everybody would say that's great. Their strategy got out of line, their cost structure got out of line. And I think they're rectifying that now. And again, you've got to stock that, in my mind, was incredibly cheap.
19:06So it went from something that I, again, probably didn't think I would have ever owned a couple years ago to it has been my largest position lately. Oh, interesting. Give us one more. Another one that I bought recently or relatively recently is Dollar Tree. I think it's a really interesting retail concept that is kind of on its own in the retail landscape. I mean, everybody competes with everybody in retail, but their position and who they serve and what they sell to them is unique. No threat from the internet at Dollar Tree? No, no, there's not. What about from Amazon or places like that? No.
19:40Or Target where, you know, I can't remember the last time I stepped into a Target, but I get Target deliveries every couple of months on a regular. It's so delightful not to have to spend a couple of hours on that. Yeah, Dollar Tree sells products at a price point. Obviously, it's very low. The average ticket's really small. The immediacy of the purchase is a tight window. The ability to cost-effectively do it with delivery is challenging, to say the least. They own Family Dollar for a long time, which is a dollar general competitor. They tried to turn it around, and it didn't work. So I was watching from the sidelines for a long time as they got that resolved.
20:17Then they changed the strategy to basically replicate what a company called Dollarama's already done in Canada. And if you look at that stock, it's been a great performer, and the business has done particularly well. I think there's a lot of sense to the strategic evolution that they're making, and the stock got pretty cheap. I think I bought in the second half of 24. So, yeah, it's a business that I think is retail. Again, obviously, it's intensely competitive, but there's little niches that people play in that I think can be attractive, and Dollar Tree is one of those niches. Really interesting.
20:46Coming up, we continue our conversation with Alex Mars, author of Buffett and Mungler Unscripted, discussing how he plowed through hundreds of hours and 31 years worth of material to write this book. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. Advisors, your clients count on bonds for income and stability, not unwanted surprises. That's why Vanguard builds institutional quality bond funds. They're designed to help portfolios remain steady when markets don't. Whether index or active, Vanguard aims for consistent bond performance with a low-cost edge, which helps clients earn returns that compound over time.
21:37A rigorous approach to risk management holds it all together. The goal? Keeping income instability in and unwelcome surprises out, because fixed income shouldn't feel like a roller coaster. Explore institutional quality bond funds from Vanguard. Learn more at vanguard.com slash audio. That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT Work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work.
22:24It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. Everyone's talking about how AI is transforming work, especially in sales. While the landscape shifts, one thing remains the same. The thrill of closing a deal. Whether it's a gong or a confetti machine, every team has its celebration rituals.
23:01Adio is designed for that moment. It's the agentic CRM that turns customer signals into actionable insights, helping you close deals faster with revenue agents and automations working around the clock. You'll have everything you need to scale your go-to market efforts. Elevate your wins with Adio. Start your free trial at adio.com slash iHeart. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Alec Morris. He is the author of Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Three Decades of Investment and Business Insight from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meetings.
23:38So I found the book fascinating. But before we delve into the content, I have to discuss your process. So back in 2018, Berkshire releases the full archive of every Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting from 1994 forward. that's 31 years worth of stuff um and you watch all of it hundreds of hours maybe even thousands of hours 1700 questions what the hell how do you how do you start where do you begin with an archive that immense yeah slowly and somewhat unwillingly at first did you just go back to 94 and start plowing through? Was there a method to the madness? Originally, well, first of all, when I was in college and got interested in investing, one of the books that really resonated with me was the essays of Warren Buffett, which took...
24:37Lawrence Cunningham. Yeah, Larry Cunningham. I went to grad school with him. He had the decades of shareholder letters, which you could just sit and plow through if you want, or he compiled it in a way where you could look at, what about capital returns of shareholders and look by topic. He had a much easier task because the letters are a couple of pages, 10, 20 pages each, and they're already in print format. You had to fight your way through hundreds and hundreds of hours of video. How did you organize that material? Well, and originally it was only on CNBC's website with a web player where you couldn't speed up the time, and one of those when you try to fast forward 20 seconds and it goes 15 minutes and you can't get back to your original spot.
25:18So that made it a little bit tough. When they eventually got on YouTube, that helped a ton. I originally went through it for the sake of learning and using it for writing material for TSOH. And as time went on, well, first I thought somebody else would do this so I wouldn't have to do it. And then I didn't see anybody doing it. At one point, Harriman House reached out to me about writing a book. And I actually was working on something. Basically, the concept was for people like my parents or my grandparents who had asked me questions about working with a financial advisor. managing their own finances, I was trying to write a book about how do you navigate that relationship with a financial advisor and talking about active and passive and asset allocation.
25:56And then I started writing it. And as I got into it, I thought, well, one, I'm not hugely interested in this. And two, I don't have the depth of knowledge on things like trusts or estates or a lot of financial planning stuff. That's really important part of that discussion. I just don't really have the depth of knowledge there. I shouldn't be the person writing this. So when Harriman House reached out, I first said, you know, I have this book, but I think I'm going to kind of drop it and I don't really have anything else. And then a week or two later, I wrote back to them and said, actually, I might have something with the Berkshire meetings that I could explore a little more, but I can't do it unless I reach out to Berkshire and at least not approval, but not disapproval from them.
26:35You don't want them fighting you every step of the way. So I put together a sample chapter and sent it to Warren's assistant, Debbie, or at the time, and asked, can I please do this? I promise that I'm a massive fan of Warren and Charlie and I'll do a good job and I'll give away half the proceeds to glide, which is a charity that Warren supported through the lunch auctions. So I got a response a couple of days later saying, as long as you're saying he didn't approve this, you're OK to go with it. So at that point, I was like, OK, now I now I have to actually do this. And the process at first was not particularly well thought out.
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27:11I remember I got through two or three or four meetings and I realized I wasn't getting into a place where I wasn't going to have to repeat that process again. So I went back to the start, created an Excel file where I timestamped everything, had like primary topic and secondary topic, and then very simple green, yellow, red. Is this going to be in or maybe be in? As time went on, I had a lot of overlapping things. I had to figure out which answer is better, which one should I keep. But as I got through 10 or 15 years, I knew what I was doing at that point. Did it reveal itself to you as you were working?
27:46By the way, full disclosure, Harriman House is my publisher. But one of the things I found fascinating about the writing process is when you happen onto a good framework, it sort of opens itself up to you. It reveals itself. And like, oh, I see what this should look like. Like, did you have a, I would imagine you might have had a similar experience year after year. The same themes, the same ideas, although they must evolve over time somewhat. Somewhat. And I got to a point where, well, one, yes, the meetings definitely have their place in time. I mean, especially think of like the late 90s or you get to the financial crisis.
28:26The discussions that are had there, the part of it that I found so useful that I thought would resonate with people was, you know, the letters are edited. and Warren's very specific about what he says. Unscripted is very different. Unscripted. When they're off the cuff and Charlie a lot of time pushes Warren in directions that he may not want to go, the answers would be really revealing. And again, like a period like the late 90s when people were really pressing you on why aren't you investing in tech companies, there's a level of, as they're pushing them, they get a little bit more honest and say things in a slightly different way than if they had written them.
28:59So anyways, as I worked through it, it's got to a point where I can imagine myself, the college kid, reading this book and getting a lot of value out of it, but I also could see myself the person today who has a lot more experience reading it and still getting value. So I thought this is going to be a worthwhile book for a wide range of people, so it hopefully could be a good project. So a recurring theme of all of the meetings, and therefore of the book, investing success is a temperament problem, not an IQ problem, emotional stability patients and independence from crowd opinion do the compounding.
29:36Again, I don't remember which of them I'm taking the quote from, but we've heard that over and over again. Yes. Give us a little color on temperament versus IQ. Yeah. I mean, I think your book title sums it up well. Not to invest is what mistakes are you looking to avoid is a great place for starting to figure out where you're trying to go. And I think that's what they've done their entire career. And it's funny how that mindset of don't be stupid can still be connected to really big swings at points in time. Because that seems like an aggressive act and kind of a risky thing. But I think when you actually pair them together, they can work well.
30:16So the flip side of the Munger quote, be less stupid, is a Buffett quote. If you have an IQ of 160, well, you can sell 30 points. They're not needed in investing. I love that. That flies against everything we've ever heard about the genius hedge fund manager, the quants, the math whizzes. And clearly, both Charlie and Warren, not dumb guys, they were more than less stupid. But how sincere is that, hey, you don't need 160 and it's probably going to get in your way anyway? I definitely think the latter part is true. It's very easy to get overconfident in your abilities and to make mistakes that can be, particularly when you start doing things with options or leverage, you can make mistakes that are truly devastating.
31:06And if you just avoid those things, it's much easier to, at a minimum, stay in the game. And to get to a decent place is also, I don't think, overly difficult as a starting point. So over the three decades that the book covers, there have been wildly different environments where there was those examples of people who should have been less stupid. So you had long term capital management blow up in was that 98? The dot com implosion, the financial crisis, the zero interest rate policy of the 2010s, than COVID. How do the same principles that are espoused by Buffett and Munger apply to all these wildly different environments?
31:53Yeah, I think it's being consistently level-headed and not letting things get away from you and having a long-term view and staying within your circle, which I think that's one of the biggest lessons I've had as an investor is learning what game you're playing and why you're playing that game. And your answer may be different from mine. And I think a funny example is someone asked in one of the meetings about Peter Lynch and Warren Buff was talking about and say his approach works well for him and mine works well for me. And I think if he tried to adopt my approach, it would not work as well and vice versa.
32:24And there's more than one way to get to heaven in this game. And as long as you understand that, I think you're in at least a good starting point. Another quote that I can't remember which of them said, volatility is the friend of the investor who knows values and the enemy of the one who doesn't. Explain that. Yeah, well, sometimes in real life it feels a little different than that when you're seeing a lot of volatility in your portfolio. But I think the idea is a sensible one, which is you don't want your decisions to be led by the market. You want to be making decisions that are somewhat independent of what the market's telling you.
32:56There's a fine line there between just being stubborn and overconfident that I think, especially when you're younger, let a quote like that. You know, this is true of a lot of quotes from Warren and Charlie. A little bit of experience helps you understand what they're actually saying versus maybe a more novice interpretation that can get you in trouble. So I think to completely disregard what the market's saying is something that you should do cautiously. But the idea of acting based on what the facts tell you as opposed to a short-term weighing machine is the right mindset to have in investing.
33:24So there are so many quotes of theirs that are just become so famous and repeated over and over again. And what sort of buried gems did you find in there that people don't really talk about? What stands out is how is this not a more famous line? I mean, I think some of the discussions on, again, things like stock option accounting in the late 90s where they're really, I mean, I think they say in the book, there was 500 companies and two of them had adopted, quote unquote, the right stock option accounting rules. Everybody else is playing this kind of game and and they talk about things like that so clearly in a way that's that anybody can understand that it's just so so useful to hear those things.
34:06Trying to think of other examples throughout the book that that stand out. One example they give in terms like their business is National Indemnity Insurance Company. They talk about this idea of there was a period of time where the volumes of that insurance business went up, I believe, 5x. Then over a period of 15 years contracted 85 percent. Wow. And then it's back, back below the original, uh, starting line. You could imagine running a business and how painful that is. And they use it to teach a lesson in terms of, it applies differently in different businesses, but how in the insurance business, the only thing that matters is writing good business.
34:39And you have to, you have to get to a place where all the stakeholders, particularly employees, realize that writing bad businesses is not the decision to make. And you have to help them appreciate that they can keep their job too, as you go through this. So it's just an example of them laying out something that when they explain it is so sensible and logical, but you have to have that long term mindset. And again, when you compare something like that to how a lot of public companies act, you start to notice things that you may want to avoid. That's very much a science of hitting philosophy. You're better off not writing bad business, not writing any business than writing bad business.
35:16I think the modern Berkshire is underappreciated for the importance of the various insurance. So there's Geico, there's Berkshire, there's a few insurance companies, which essentially gave Warren a giant pool of capital and patient capital to work with. Talk about the significance of insurance to the success of Berkshire Hathaway. Yeah, I mean, it's been hugely important. And that float has, I don't know what the number is now, but it's grown very significantly over a long period of time. And it has allowed them to make the investments that have got Berkshire to where it is today. One example that I come back to a lot from one of those investments is Coca-Cola, which everybody knows that Berkshire owns Coca-Cola.
36:02I think the part that people sometimes don't know is that Warren started buying in, I believe it was 88 or 89. He bought his last share in 94, and he hasn't bought or sold a single share since then. which is at a point in time, it was more than 30 % of Berkshire's equity portfolio. It's not like it was 2 % of their portfolio that they're not touching. It was a hugely important position, and he hasn't touched it for more than 30 years, which is when someone's really good at investing like they are, and they do something like that, and you look around, you see, well, nobody else is really acting in this way.
36:32It's something that stands out and I think is noteworthy. So I love the concept of imagine you only get 20 investment decisions for a lifetime. When you look at Berkshire's returns, it's a handful of decisions and decades of sitting still that have been driving it. What is that thesis? Hey, you're only going to make 20 meaningful investment decisions. What does that do to selectivity? Yeah, it raises your bar a lot. A lot. The things that you're willing to compromise on will, you know, if you need to find 100 things to own, you've got to make a lot of compromises. If you can own 10 things, you can make less compromises.
37:10And if you can own one thing, you can get even more selective. So I think that idea of knowing what you're looking for, being patient, and then these two are connected. If you're going to act in that way, you have to swing big to some extent. So they repeat a lot of the same principles over and over over the years. I'm curious not only how things evolved, but what are some examples of them reaching a conclusion, hey, maybe we haven't really thought this through and we want to pivot or tack away from a previous belief? Where did they really change their minds? Yeah, two really prominent examples are one in an own business in GEICO.
37:49They basically missed the move in telematics, which is like the data measurement in the car. And Progressive was really early there, and Warren publicly at the meetings kind of said, we don't think this is going to be important to the rate-making decision. And they were wrong, and they were years behind as a result of that. Explain what telematics does for an insurer. Yeah, basically it gives you actual data from how someone drives, which it turns out is very important for determining how they drive and setting their rate and the riskiness, et cetera. So GEICO was – or the way Warren talked about it, they were convinced they had – Is it built into the car, he asked, concerned?
38:23Or is it something that you have to give permission to? You had to get a device at one point. I believe you can do it with your phone now. But they would... And you get a discount if you agree to do this. You can get a discount for using it. And they've changed over time what they're willing to do with your rates. But early on, you could just get a discount from it. You wouldn't get a rate increase. So, yeah, Berkshire or Geico kind of missed that early. And they've kind of been playing catch-up since then. And Progressive went from millions of policyholders less than Geico to now being quite a bit larger than Geico.
38:54They're one of the bigger – this is a huge, huge growth story and change for them over the years. Is the telematic strategy what drove them? Yeah, it's a huge part of it. It's a huge part of it. And then the other issue that comes up is Buffett has been notoriously tech-averse and then becomes one of the biggest shareholders of Apple. Yeah. How did he explain that? How did he wrap his head around that major pivot? That's the other example I was going to say. You go through a period of, I believe it's 2011, 2012, 2013, some select quotes are that when they owned IBM, they basically said we'll never have the confidence in, the person asking the question specifically asked about Apple and Google, which in hindsight is kind of funny because those are the two companies that they've now invested in.
39:43And they basically said, we'll never have the confidence on those two companies that we have in IBM, which was not a good investment. And then I think late at the next meeting, Charlie even more forcefully said, basically, Apple's too hard for us. We'll never own it. Fast forward a few years. And it was a I think at one point is almost a 200 billion dollar position. And it's one of the greatest investments of all time. And I think it just speaks to a willingness to continue learning. And, you know, Warren specifically talked about on CNBC when they bought. he spoke about how at the Nebraska Furniture Mart, which is a retailer that they own, people come in and buy a TV, and they're looking at the number of pixels or the quality of the screen.
40:21They're comparing the prices, et cetera. And then when it comes to an iPhone versus an Android, it doesn't matter if an Android phone is 60 % cheaper. Some people were just absolutely going to buy the iPhone no matter what. So he noticed that in terms of that differentiation between a technology question versus a consumer brand kind of question. I think he also recognized early the value of the screen and the services strategy that Apple in the mid-2010s really got underway. And also the valuation was attractive, and they had capital returns policy. That's one of the things that really jumps out in terms of his investment approach is how much he, particularly in publicly traded companies, how much he valued the combination of the valuation and very clear capital return strategy.
41:03You see that at Apple. You see that at PetroChina in the early 2000s. It's a very prominent part of what he seemed to be looking for. So I see how their ideas have changed over time. I'm curious, the process of going through the whole book and all of the various meetings and videos you ended up watching, anything change the way you invest personally? Any ideas you're still wrestling with trying to put into practice? Yeah, I think this idea of, again, I think I mentioned this before, kind of traditional value investors, this idea of change being a bad thing and trying to avoid it. It's just, I mean, it's borderline impossible in today's.
41:45I mean, if you could give me a list of five companies that haven't meaningfully changed in the last 10 or 15 years, it'd kind of be tough to do. Every industry is changing, and you have to be, you can't just avoid it, I don't think. It doesn't mean you have to run into it, but you have to be really thoughtful about how every business is changing. And you think the prominent examples that they gave over time of the greatest businesses are newspapers and other things that are either greatly changed or gone. So you have to, and retailers as an example. Adapt or die. Yes, adapt or die. And I think that's a reality of being a business manager.
42:18It's a reality of being an investor. And you have to be willing to lean into that. Really, really interesting. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Alex Morris, author of Buffett and Munger Unscripted, discussing Berkshire Hathaway after Warren Buffett. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT Work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work.
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44:18Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care fast. Health care just got less painful. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Alex Morris is my extra special guest this week. He is the author of Buffett and Munger Unscripted, scripted three decades of investment and business insights from the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. He is also the founder of TSOH Research. So so let's talk a little bit about their relationship before we get to the post Buffett. And we're already in the post Munger era. What what did Munger contribute to Buffett's thinking that Buffett probably wouldn't have developed on his own.
45:05They really had kind of a unique partnership. Yeah, they did. And Dale, Charlie will say he didn't have as much of an impact as Warren says he did. So I guess you got to pick which one you want to agree with or believe. You know, I think Warren's strategy that he ran up into the point in time where they became, you know, friends with each other in the decades after, it was a cigar butt strategy and a traditional value investing strategy. The main constraint it was going to run into over time with size. And that's a problem they have now, even as they've adjusted the strategy. And I think Charlie changed his mindset a little bit towards buying businesses that they're going to own, as opposed to things that are going to be liquidated or sold, whatever it may be.
45:43When you say buying businesses, completely like a full takeover, not just, we don't want 10 % of Geico, we want all of Geico. Yeah. I think one of the prominent early ones was See's Candies, where they were getting a little bit, they were getting a little touchy on the price, and I think they had someone who worked with them who said, if you guys don't buy this because the price is 10 % higher than what you wanted, you're idiots, basically. Really? Yeah. Who says that to Warren Buffett? I'm just curious. I think it was Charlie Munger's part. I want to say Ira Marshall for some reason, but I could be incorrect.
46:14But anyways, they told him, if you don't buy this business because it's 10 % higher than what you want to pay, you're not being very intelligent because this is a really good brand, and it's going to be a really good business over time. And thankfully, they listened. You know, I have a buddy, Jonathan Miller, who's not only a data junkie with the back end of real estate and an appraiser, but he was saying if you're buying a house that you're going to live in for 25 years, this is the house. If you pay 10 or 15 percent over, who cares? Yeah. Just look at it from houses sold 25 years ago. What would have happened if you paid 10 percent more for that?
46:53It's meaningless. Listen, Mark Andreessen said the same thing about Facebook. All right, it was a 40x or a 50x. Imagine if we paid 25 % over. It wouldn't have made any different. And yet, this is coming from people with a value background. How do you reconcile that? Yeah, personally, my personal experience taught me to, or in some ways taught me to, just to get past that way of thinking. And again, I said before, I bought Microsoft in 2011. It was a very traditional value investment. X cash, it was trading at high single-digit PE and, again, very traditional value investment. You get forward to 2015 or 2016 in that period, and now the PE, as opposed to being in the high single digits, is, you know, call it mid-teens.
47:35And I can remember that point in time, a lot of the, again, more traditional value investors, they were at a point where they go, okay, we've had our run here, it's time to sell. And it's a situation where I looked and saw, I saw what Satya Nadella, who was recently named the CEO at that time, the strategy they had in the cloud business, and not that I have any great technical knowledge on this, but the way they explained where they were going and what the opportunity was, just seemed clear to me that to sell it simply because the P.E. was a couple turns higher than what the quote-unquote fair price was for it, just didn't make a ton of sense.
48:07If you found a business that has a really long runway with a person running it that you think is the right person for that job, And to let that go easily is a mistake. And it's funny to look back now. I didn't know this because I was updating on Microsoft the other day. Over the last decade, the stocks compounded at a mid-20s annualized return. This happens all the time with companies like this where people, if they become too focused on the valuation, they go, this can't. This isn't going to generate more than 12 % a year over the next decade or whatever. What's the line? Price is what you pay.
48:37Value is what you get. Exactly. So clearly, even at an elevated price, Microsoft turned out to be a good value. You have to consider both at all times. If you become overly focused on price as the driver of your decision making, I think that's kind of a flawed way to do things. And the same goes for, you know, theoretically, you have, let's say, you have a portfolio. And theoretically, you could re-rank it every single day on expected five-year returns, whatever it may be. And the answer is going to change based on what those positions did the day before, obviously. I think that mindset, while it makes sense theoretically, it guarantees you're never going to own anything particularly in size.
49:13You're going to be trimming it as it goes up 20, 30, 50%. Because suddenly it's fully valued. The IRR is three points lower than it was six months ago. And I just think if you look back, again, like the last 15, 20 years and your example of Facebook, selling it because the IRR was down slightly was a mistake. Understanding what the business was in some sense, what the opportunity was. Again, you can deal with this through position sizing, but be really thoughtful about selling businesses that you actually think are worth owning. You know, that makes a lot of sense. Both Buffett and Munger have emphasized staying within one's circle of competence.
49:48How can an investor expand that circle and how do you avoid fooling yourself into thinking you have some competence when you don't? This is classic Dunning-Kruger. Yeah, I think it's time. It's a willingness to learn. It's a willingness to feel around and not always have the answers right away. I mean, for example, at TSOH, a lot of my initiations on company, they very rarely end with, you know, this is my price target or this is a buy today. That's very uncommon for me. The conclusion is almost always, here's what I think is interesting about this company. These are the questions we kind of need to explore and get a better feel for over time.
50:25And it's just that continual learning process where sometimes you get, you know, three, four, five years down the road from there and you still don't have the answers. Other times you get a couple years down the road and things happen in a certain way and you go, wait a second, I think I'm seeing this now in a way that I didn't originally. And you find enough examples like that and you can have a portfolio. Really interesting. Interesting. What do you think of all the principles that Buffett and Munger enumerated over the years, often quoted but really infrequently practiced by professionals or just difficult to put into effect by mom and pop investors?
51:03Yeah, they've had things like permanent capital, which you look at an example like Terry Smith at Fundsmith right now, and when things go against you for a relatively short period of time, but your assets start going away, that's a huge problem. So things like that are just a prominent example of how thoughtfully they've constructed everything and what that then allows them in terms of their flexibility of being really patient or taking big swings, et cetera. What about avoid difficult decisions? Is that realistic? today? Again, I think it's more difficult over time. But I think if you're patient, you can, again, as you learn more and more, decisions that may appear difficult might be less so for you.
51:43I really like Buffett's comment about market forecasts. They tell you nothing about the market, but a great deal about the forecaster. They claim to have never made a Berkshire decision based on a macro prediction. How true is that? Well, I think you look at their cash position currently and and and wonder how much of that is, you know, maybe not a macro forecaster. There has to be some belief about markets or prices generally. I guess you could look at it at a micro level and say we can't find anything. And collectively, all the micro is the macro. Right. You know, I think it's I think the bigger point and it's something that we've all seen over the past 15 years.
52:23I mean, I'm sure you can remember well, 2011, 2012, people are like, OK, we're back to another bubble. We got past the GFC and now we're here we are again and stocks aren't going to go anywhere for the next decade. And good call. People overdosed on that have paid a very significant price. So, you know, it's funny you bring that up. I remember I don't remember if it was late 08 or early 09, but Buffett wrote an op ed. I think it was The Times by America. And that felt very much like a combination of a everything has gotten cheaper. So there's a valuation issue and we weren't quite down 56 percent, but we were on the way.
53:01Maybe we were down a third by that time. But it felt like a macro, hey, this is a temporary crisis and we'll get past it. Or was it strictly a valuation decision? Yeah, I think it was a little bit of both. I mean, as he as he said later on, you know, I wrote that and I think he said October of 08. And to your point, people are like, wow, it was a great call. It was like, well, it was down another 30 % six months later or whatever it was. So my timing wasn't particularly great. I think the bigger takeaway for particularly individual investors in my mind is understanding something like a structural asset allocation and having clarity on what you're trying to achieve.
53:40And again, coming back to this idea over and over of the mistakes you're trying to avoid. And we saw over the past 15 years people with big swings in and out of cash, running out of the markets. I think you're just making the game more difficult than it needs to be. And when you're wrong, it really hurts. So having studied every answer Buffett ever gave about succession over 31 years, what does the record tell us about how he set up his succession and what did his Thanksgiving letter last year add? That's kind of funny. Starting with the 94 meeting, they were asked every single year about succession.
54:21And he's what? He's my age back then. He's in his early 60s back then. It turns out he had another three decades to go. I think they've said over time that there's nobody who cares about the answer to this question more than we do. And a lot of the businesses at BNSF, the railroad, Warren's not really involved in the decision-making there. Same at GEICO, same at a lot of other businesses. A lot of the equity positions, like I said, Coca-Cola or Amex, all these other ones, they're just in there. and they're almost certainly not going to be sold by Warren or anybody else. So I think a lot of the pieces are in place.
54:55The biggest challenges Berkshire has, as I mentioned, there's some operational issues at businesses like GEICO that had to be fixed, and the massive cash pile is another challenge. Those challenges existed two years ago with Warren, and they still exist today, and solutions are difficult. But it seems like Greg Abel is starting to move in the direction of trying to resolve those issues. So let's talk a little bit about Greg Abel. He took over as CEO of Berkshire on January 1st of this year, 2026. You were at the meeting in Omaha, his first annual meeting, Buffett just sitting in the audience like any other Berkshire shareholder.
55:35Well, maybe not like any other Berkshire, but not on stage. What was that like? How was Abel? Are you confident that this was the right choice and Berkshire was in the right hands? Yeah, I think that this is also informed by writing the book. The questions over time, in the early days, the questions were really focused on Berkshire and investing. And I think as time went on, they became a lot more about life advice and other things that, while still interesting, are not really Berkshire specific. And when you got to things like I was saying with Geico and Telematics or at BNSF, where their results were lagging some of the other class on rails, I think Warren had a tendency to not want to point fingers at the managers, and he wouldn't really talk specifically about the issues there, which is, you know, for the people who are kind of the diehard Berkshire shareholders, we want to hear those things.
56:26Greg took those questions head on, which was really refreshing to hear. And I think everything we've seen so far would suggest that, you know, as Warren and Charlie said, we've thought about this more than anyone else, and I think that's probably reflected in their decision. So you mentioned the huge cash pile, a couple hundred billion dollars just lying around. I know that's walking around money. What does capital allocation look like under Greg Abel? Is he going to emphasize buybacks or going out elephant hunting, finding some big acquisition or something else entirely? I think repurchases will surely be a big part of the strategy.
57:02um i thought and by the way munger and buffett have both been very explicit about buybacks hey when you're below your uh true value when fair value it's a deal absolutely do buybacks but if you're fully or richly priced it's a disaster waiting to happen yeah they made no bones about it and they acted on that where do you think greg falls on that yeah i think berkshire started buying shares more significantly in the last, I think they started in 2019. The pace has slowed down lately. Implying they're close to fully valued? Yeah, I believe that they have views about the market or the opportunity set more broadly, I think would be fair to say based on how they've been acting for some time now.
57:49You know, it would have been helpful if they started repurchasing shares earlier. I don't think Warren was particularly interested in doing that for a good amount of time. And it got to a point where they basically either had to or have to pay a large special dividend, whatever it may be, I think Greg will be a lot more open to leaning into these things. And as I said many times, I mean, obviously we haven't had huge shakeouts outside of maybe a brief period during the pandemic, but if we get a period where equities really trade off meaningfully and they can put a decent amount of dollars to work, they're willing to spend tens of billions of dollars or potentially even over$100 billion if the right opportunity is there.
58:25What's the cash holdings right now? I think it's north of$300 ,000. Yeah, it's crazy. number. That sounds to me like a war chest waiting for a disaster to happen. Yeah. I think the thing is you got to find a willing seller, which is if you're going to buy a whole business. Do you? Do you have to find a willing seller or can you wait for a era of distress where everybody's a seller and you're the, you know, you're, that's what I meant by war chest waiting for disaster to strike. Well, that would be, that'd be a nice way to deal with this issue. And we haven't seen it yet, But I'm sure the day will come where things look really ugly and I'm sure they'll be ready to act and will act.
59:02So the whole idea of the annual meeting taking place in Omaha was really built around these two men, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, one of whom is no longer with us. And the other one is now sitting in the audience. So the question that comes to mind is, does Omaha still matter today? What's it going to look like, you know, a decade from now? Yeah, it's funny. I think, and I said my experience here, and it's from people I know who are also Berkshire shareholders, it sounds like their experience has been similar, is it's become an event where people go there and there's so many events around the meeting now that aren't the meeting.
59:40And it's people coming together who are hosting their own meetings of one variety or another or having investor conferences. And I think that's become a really important part of this trip for a lot of people. So I sense for, I mean, the size of the audience will get smaller, as it has already, I believe. Oh, is that true? Yeah, I think it was smaller this year than it's been in the past. But for these core group of diehard value investors, I think they'll continue to show up for a while as long as those events keep going on. Do you have any insight into who the average Berkshire shareholder is?
1:00:11Is this primarily Main Street or is this more professional investors or some obvious combination? Yeah, I think it's a combo of the two. Yeah, it feels like a combo of the two. It feels a little bit more, they definitely attract a more Main Street audience than I think just investors do generally, or investment managers especially. And I've never made it out to Omaha. I'm curious, who goes to these events? Value weirdos. Really? Yeah. People always like to joke that I'm a contrarian and I'm sitting in here with 40 ,000 people who think the same way I do. It's the scene from Monty Python's Life of Brian.
1:00:48Yes, exactly. You're all individuals. You don't have to follow the crowd. And they just repeat in unison, we're all individuals. No, I think it's people who want to learn. And for myself, I've learned a ton from Warren and Charlie about business, but I've learned a lot more as well about life and other things that I think are as important as part of your development as an individual and as an investor. And I wrote them. It's funny. I wrote Warren in 2010. And I said, hey, I'm not asking you for a job. And I have fantastic parents who are my role models. But outside of that, you've been really important in my life.
1:01:25And I just want to say thank you for that. And he wrote a response. And it's framed in my office. It's like my one material possession that I care about. But I think it's people with that mindset who have come to really appreciate all they've taught people. And, you know, what obviously Warren through charity and other things has done a lot for the world at large as well. So, yeah. Really, really interesting. So I only have you for so much time. And we don't have the studio for so much time. And let's jump to our favorite questions that I ask all of my guests starting with, and I kind of have a suspicion as to the answer of this.
1:01:58Who are your mentors who helped shape your career? I know you have the letter from Buffett. So I want you to address Buffett and Munger as well as anybody else who might have shaped the curve of your career. Yeah. My start was with Peter Lynch, actually. Oh, really? I think I read One Up on Wall Street. It was one of the first books I read, which even to this day, when younger people ask me, what should I read? I think that's a perfect book for getting a feel for what investing is, and it's very approachable. So I've always liked Peter Lynch. There are other investors like Chuck Ockrey and some of these other fund managers that I – Don Yachman is another example.
1:02:38Fund managers that, at least in the early 2010s, were names that – at least the world that I track in, they were well-known and people that I learned a lot from. obviously Warren and Charlie are at the top of that mountain for me. Let's talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading currently? Currently reading the Jeremy Grantham book, which I thought is an interesting book. I'm reading a book about Fairfax. What else am I reading right now? About Fairfax? Yeah, Fairfax, Canadian and sure. It's called The Fairfax Way. It's a good book. I have two young kids, so my reading time has been changed in for 4 a.m.
1:03:16walks with my daughter and podcasts. So I listen to a lot of podcasts now as opposed to reading as many books as I'd like to. Well, that's my next question. What are you streaming these days, either Netflix, Amazon, Disney, or podcasts? What's keeping you busy? I've been listening to your podcast. I love the Haggerty's episode was really good that you had here recently. So interesting. I mean, your knowledge of cars, that helps the podcast. You know, I go out of my way to learn as much about each guest and their business as I can before the podcast, but that was easy. I didn't have all that much research to do for that one.
1:03:53You could tell you love that topic. It was fun. I've had a few really interesting automobile people over the year, but still, you have to do the deep dive because you'll find stuff that you wouldn't have without doing the research, and I just think it makes a better conversation. What else? Give us some other podcasts. My buddy Bill Brewster has his podcast called The Business Brew. That's a great podcast. I listen to a ton of, as part of my research, I listen to a ton of old interviews and things like that that I find. Like I'll listen to Reed Hastings from 2005 and listen to him talking about Netflix and what their strategy is.
1:04:27I find those, along with old articles, is so helpful in terms of getting your mind to what were people seeing and what were they thinking at this point in time. And how does that translate from then to now as an investor? I think that's like a fascinating way to learn about businesses and people. So our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in investing? I mean, I think it's become harder with Twitter and some of these other tools over time in terms of getting your voice out there. But I recommend people writing is the greatest thing for me that I ever did in investing because it helped me to, one, build my audience.
1:05:06But, two, it helps you learn how to think, which might sound weird to people. But when you put something on a piece of paper and you read it and you go, okay, well, there's no defense for that part or this doesn't even really make sense. What am I trying to say here? When you sit down and go through that process, I think there's so much learning. And to the extent that you do it, and I find this as well, when you reach out to people who are established in the business, you say, hey, I did a one-pager on XYZ. I really worked my butt off on this and I'm a college grad. Almost everybody is willing to respond if you're really showing the effort and you're conscious of their time.
1:05:38so take advantage of that while you're young and people are willing to talk to you and our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today, might have been useful 15, 20 years ago when you were really first starting up yeah I know that I don't know everything I know that I've learned a lot along the way, as I said before that there's different ways to play the game and I've kind of found the version of this game that I want to play and that I think I can do well at and just continuing to try to get smarter every day That sounds like you're bringing it back to the circle of competence.
1:06:09Yeah. A lot of things come back to what Warren and Charlie have said. They're pretty smart. They had some good ideas on investing in business. Those guys are definitely onto something. It was hard to get this to 500 pages. Oh, really? Yeah. Because they just repeat. Well, I went through 1 ,700 questions, and I was like, okay, I tried to keep 1 ,100 of them. I think we've got to cut this down a little more. What was the original length of this monster when it first? Oh, it was a huge Word document. I think it was 700 or 800 pages, but then I had to go through, okay, which of these comments on value investing do I really need to keep?
1:06:41So that was one of the harder processes of writing the book. I could imagine. Alex, thank you so much for coming in. I have really been enjoying it. I'm like halfway through, and this isn't like a book you pick up and read three or four chapters. it's just dense with knowledge and information and you really have to chew on everything on the way through and i've very much been been enjoying it we have been speaking with alex morris author of buffett and munger unscripted if you enjoy this conversation well check out any of the 659 we've done over the past 12 years you can find those at itunes spotify bloomberg YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
1:07:28I would be remiss if I didn't thank the crack team that helps us put these conversations together each week. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. Anna Luke is my producer. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.
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From the publisher
Barry speaks with Alex Morris, author of "Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meetings". They discuss his research into the legendary investors and the challenges in interpreting markets.
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