#684 - Vincent Harinam - Cancelled For Appearing On This Podcast

26:10But it's more so a surplus of single young men engaging in violence. So one particular example I can give you antiquity is China in the 18th century. So this is Huapei. It was called the Nian Rebellion of 1851 to 1863. And essentially what had happened in Huapei was that there was a massive famine. There was a infanticide and the ratio of men to women was 126 men to 100 women, which meant that there was an immense surplus of men. And all of these men that were socioeconomically poor and deprived had to defer marriage by around six years because of the surplus. And I think 25 % of them didn't end up getting married.

26:54And this was also affected by the polygamous practices of the rich. So rich men in Huawei China accounted for about 10 % of the marriage, even though they accounted for maybe 1 % of the population, something like that. And what this led to was massive riots and robbing bands of thieves and criminals that would go around the Chinese countryside, assaulting people. We see a similar example in medieval Portugal where I think you know of this example. My favorite one. It's your favorite one. So medieval Portugal sees a 112 men for every woman. And because of pre -Megenditor and first son rights, the first born son was the one that would inherit and be able to marry, which meant that you had a cohort of second born sons and poor men that were sort of listless.

27:37They didn't have a partner. So the the the monarchy in Portugal decided to ship all of these surplus men out to conquest out to wards overseas So they could get that aggression out there as a means of conquest and Colonialist get the aggression off Portugal mostly exactly because they because I suppose the the leaders at that time knew that these men were were the the The Linchpin towards revolution and change and their opponents knew that in order to to quickly change the political regime to kill their enemies, to kill the ones in power, they would have to galvanize these men to action, give them some sort of prize or benefit or incentive to engage in political violence, which is very easy.

28:19Yeah, I'm looking at this here. landmark study of 500 high -risk males in Boston by criminologists John Loweb and Robert Sampson found that marriage reduced the odds of criminal activity by a whopping 35%. This was corroborated by another major story of 400 London men who found a 44 % increase in criminal activity during periods when men were single or divorced. Furthermore, men who stayed married saw an 80 % decrease in their offending rate. Finally, a metronalysis of the scholarly literature found a negative association between marriage and crime in 78 % of eligible studies. There's also an amazing one that I learned from Roy Balmeister.

29:00So they got men to cross the road and looked at how far the nearest car was to them when they did it and men were either crossing the road in the presence of women or without the presence of women. And in the presence of women, shock horror, it was way closer. The car was half the distance away that they would do and they were just prepared. So risk taking behavior very much is informed by women and wives very much do domesticate husband. Absolutely. Absolutely. There's a lot of studies that I tell you. Okay, well, fair enough, I'll just make this point is that there's one caveat with these studies and it's the age in which the men get married.

29:38But the overall study was at men's level to testosterone drops when they have children. Now, is that mediated or is that the case because they have children and they're married or is that because there are other age where their testosterone from begins to drop. That's the question. But I even still, I would say that that's quite an important study with regard to the pacifying effect of a family on a man. And the two studies that you've mentioned, at least the criminological studies, are Linchpin landmark studies within criminology. So, Sathson Lob, OG criminologists have, you know, around the gauntlet in terms of great studies, David Farrington, who did that study in London, was a former colleague of mine at Cambridge.

30:16He's renowned for these sort of studies.

30:21And of marriage into a perspective as a force for reducing potential violence in the future. Also, obviously, marriage means that you are less likely to grow up in a single -parent household. And I'm sure that you, as a criminologist, have some terrifying statistics about the different kinds of crime outcomes and risk profiles for men, boys who grow up in single -parent households versus two -parent households. 100%. So that's the second wing of the argument with relation to future violence is that there will probably be a cohort of young men that grew up without fathers that engage in criminal activity.

30:56One study that I looked at found that 85 % of prison inmates grew up in a single mother household. General increases, so 1 % increases in male figures, not necessarily fathers, but male figures within neighborhoods, decrease the crime rate by a substantive margin, or something like 0 .5 % off the top of my head. It could be lower, it could be higher. But the point being here is that the presence of two parents within a household is substantive and incredibly impactful when it comes to not just deterring young boys away from crime, but improving life circumstances. So for example, single mother households have $40 ,000 less income relative to stable two -parent households.

31:40There's rates of depression that are higher in single -parent households, graduation high school, getting into post -second year institutions, living in poverty, you're at a complete disadvantage if you live in a single -parent household and sort of just to contextualize this in its entirety. 41 % I it's either 40 or 41 % of children in the United States are currently born out of wedlock and one in five children in the United States, so that means 21 % of them live in single -parent households that is single -mother households to be more specific. Yeah, I had Melissa Karnie on the show. Have you seen that?

32:16The two parent advantage? It's coming out in about two weeks time. I had nice. You'd love it. So she, uh, she's been on with Rob, um, and uh, Robin showed me to her book and I had her on yesterday. Dude, it's shocking. Like she's a policy, want type from like Washington and straight up economics, right? It's just raw economics is what she's looking at. Then the outcomes are really, really scary. And then to fall back in the kind of social justice performative empathy line, I think that many people from the high -faluting institutions from the parts of government that could instantiate policies that would be able to help these people feel like they're being, like they're patronizing, especially minority groups, you know, this is specifically a problem in the black community.

33:13This is specifically a problem. Like it's not people that are college educated. If you've got a four year college degree, none of this stuff touches you. No, not at all. You probably won't even get divorce, right? The cohort of the number one cohort that has the lowest risk of divorce or college -educated women. Yep. Yep. And the thing is, Chris, is I think that it's actually racist in and of itself to view these using these high -falutin individuals as actually a soft form of bigotry to soft form of racism. So look at these people and say, well, you know, they can't get married. It's okay if they don't have intact families.

33:49It's just how they do things. Well, that's ridiculous. That's ridiculous. I mean, Thomas Saul has looked at this issue in a great level of a great level in his books, or at least one of his books, white liberals and black rednacks. I believe I have that mixed up, but he looked at rates of intact black families and the success that they had. And it's only when the Model Cities Act came into effect in the 1960s and at states that we saw a degradation of the black family structure and therefore increases in crime within black communities. Yeah, that's interesting. Okay. So going back to Melcidation Hypothesis, Young Mel Syndrome, is it your belief then that But the right galvanizing activation energy flashpoint thing could light what appears to be kind of like the materials, the foundation, the Tinder of a particularly disgruntled group of young men.

34:47Is that kind of what your concern is moving forward? Precisely. Precisely. I would say exactly that. We are one match being lit away from a massive crisis. And I know I stated some examples in antiquity, but there are modern examples to really implicate this particular crisis. So China would be the operative example. So you're well aware of the what was it called the the one child policy in China. Yes, the one child policy in China resulted in an approximate number. What is it? It's 80 80 million lost women. So which means that there's a massive surplus of young Chinese men that are now coming to age, they're single.

35:25And what the statistics indicate is that five there is a five to six percent increase in violent crime and property crime in China because of this surplus amount of young single men. There's another study that indicated that between 1988 and 2004, one -seventh of the rise in property and violent crime within China was due to the surplus of men between the ages of 16 and 25. Here's another one I'll give you. I'm just listening to this at this point. but in Mexico for every one for the decrease of one men per 100 within the population, there is a commence from 0 .43 reduction in homicides per 100 ,000.

36:12So less men you have within a population, surplus -wise, less homicides you have. For the people who don't understand And why when we don't have a massive gender disparity here, like it's around about 50, 50 men to women, we haven't had in fantasied because everybody wants to have a male first born or whatever. Can you explain why it's the case that we have these disengaged out of relationship men if it is around about 50, 50? I guess you're talking about the imbalance of women that are in a relationship and the commensurate number of the associate number of men that are not in relation despite the 50 -50.

36:58Well, I think the reason is probably because of a soft form of polygene where you have a small number of men or not quite an odd size number, but a decent sized number of men within the population that have relationships or balances with these women who think that that they're in a relationship, which means that you have a cohort, an increasing cohort of men, perhaps the majority of men that are not in any sort of relationships. This actually harkens back to historical or anthropological finding, which was that we have 66 % of our ancestors were female, something like 70 to 66 to 70 % of our ancestors were females, whereas 30 to 33 % of our ancestors were males, which meant that a small number of males in antiquity in ancient times had sex and reproduce with the majority of women.

37:46We don't have as many male ancestors as we do female ancestors. And it's the same sort of principle here within the dating market. Yes. To put that into a little bit more easy to understand numbers, I think it's right. 80 % of women reproduced, 40 % of men reproduced. It's around about, it's still the two to one, but that's within the overall population. Yeah. Yeah. So one. Sorry, go ahead. I was going to state another statistic, but I think well one one thing I looked at was that one anthropologist found that for every 17 females in If I've been to every 17 female ancestors of ours that reproduce one male ancestor Ancestor of ours reproduced.

38:28So it's quite an imbalance between the two Yeah, that's huge. Um, okay, so if a soft pilliginy, which is one man capturing the attention of many women. Now we're not seeing, you know, polycules with just one Dan Bilzerian floating around, but, you know, you know, in a world that's got casual sex and situationships and we're just seeing each other kind of laborless relationships going on. It's quite easy to see how one guy could capture the attention of many women. Louise Perry calls them digital horoms when it comes to online dating. And even if it's not that, you know, one guy of high value cycling through multiple women throughout his 20s, throughout his 30s, throughout his 40s, and now I'm mid 40s and I'm finally going to decide to settle down, can leave a wake of sort of broken hearts that are kind left for other men to pick up, which I think is one of the criticisms of the more extreme sides of the Red Pill and Manusphere advice, which is if the goal is to kind of raise up the well -being of men, a lot of the advice around how to date women create precisely the broken, used and discarded women that men are now going to have to pick up and piece back together.

39:53It's a, at its worst, it's a philosophy that benefits some men at the expense of everybody else. That's right. I think that's entirely correct. That critique of the atmosphere, at least the red pill, is 100 % correct. They create the problem with the ideology that they espouse, that they rail against, which is young women that are having sex with multiple men that are incredibly promiscuous. Well, you're the ones that are preaching about having multiple sexual partners, that is going out with multiple women. So you're essentially creating this cohort of women that don't want to have a relationship that apparently use men for their resources.

40:32So it's staggering to me, and I do think that this is a serious problem that's happening in modern society. Although there is evidence to suggest that there is of course a fertility crisis and a crisis around sex, where we're no longer having a sexual recession as it were. I found this is a Alexander date -sike stat. He's coming back on soon. He's like, if I could do a dream roundtable for dating, I would probably get you, Alex and William with Rob. Like you for as a roundtable would just be phenomenal. Sit you guys down with enough caffeine and four hours and a few good mics. But he has, he did a really, really big study.

41:1850 % of managed dating to 30 say that they haven't approached a woman in the last year. That's not surprising. That's not surprising at all. I, I, I'm not even shocked by that. I mean, there, there's a few research study out there that, that sort of corroborated, well, actually, the same finding that of the men that are not in a relationship. It's something like 53 % of them. 57 % of that number reported not being able to approach a woman or being afraid to approach a woman as the reason why they're not in a relationship. Oh, you need to send me that. I haven't seen that one. I thought you were going to cite the one that said 55 % of men between the ages of 18 and 30 say that they're not looking for casual or long -term relationships.

41:56But we don't know which of these are crossing over the top, right? Like presumably a lot of the men that don't want casual or long -term relationships are not approaching women, but some non -insignificant number of people who do want to be in relationships are also not approaching women. So you have this very, this is kind of the interesting thing about men at the moment, among like a million other interesting things. Is that you have a culture of guys who want to, you know, kind of take life by the horns, they feel like maybe antiquity would have been better for them, that the modern world has kind of robbed them of something in terms of meaning or purpose or connection, that there is an imbalance and some unfairness going on, and they want to kind of grab life by the horns and finally get a purpose.

42:38at the same time as being sedated heavily by porn, video games, social media screens, weed, convenience. So they're sort of pushing and pulling, at least pushing ideologically and pulling in terms of what they're doing with their lifestyle, they're stated and reveal preferences. And then when it comes to the women thing as well, you know, a lot of the time And the guys will applaud an Andrew Tate, somebody who really does forge their own path when it comes to women. And I think he's got a number of kids by maybe a number of women and he's doing all this stuff. And it doesn't slow him down and he'll go do this thing.

43:21But then how many of the 50 % of men that haven't approached a woman in the last year are a part of that cohort? And now, you know, me too, me too, it went to try and sanitize men and it sterilized them instead and all the rest of it. I don't disagree. I think that, you know, the fallout of an overly zealous me too movement has been catastrophic for women's dating desires. Completely, completely. I'll give you a statistic there. It was either a Harris poll or an American studies poll. I forget the exact polling institution, but they found, not always Pew. It was Pew. Pew, it's always Pew. So, Pew found that of the individuals that they interviewed with regard to the Me Too movement, 69 % of men said that it had a deleterious effect on men's ability to know how to interact with women.

44:0661 % of women felt the same way. So of the cohort that they interviewed, which is supposed to be representative of the population, the vast majority of people viewed the Me Too movement as negative towards romantic interactions between men and women because it's sort of knee -capbed from taking the initiative and asking women out because that could be viewed under the strictures of me too as harassment. Yeah, 20 % of Gen Z say that a man approaching a woman in person sometimes always constitutes harassment and that's only going to continue to get worse as people live live more vicariously through their screens this aversion to doing anything in the real world is is there's the I remember I was out for dinner with a friend and I mentioned I was bored of him and I said that we should go and talk to talk to those girls over the first and this is years ago now and he looked at me like I'd suggested going in like hitting them over the head with the hammer and dumping their bodies in a river you say I've been told under no circumstances that I'm to go up and talk to a woman I'm like dude like you are putting yourself on the back foot with regards to dating.

45:15And yeah, it's so strange. Such a hydrahead, this sort of generalized risk aversion that everybody has where whatever the safest, lowest number of potential negative outcome approach strategy is the one that's right. That's the one that we should go for. Because you're not optimizing for what's best. You're optimizing for what causes the least number of potentially bad things and I Haven't said this on the show before I'm gonna try and thread the needle, but if I'm clumsy, please forgive me How many How many sexual assaults Actually, no how many Non -approaches by a guy to a woman is one sexual assault worth Is it two million Is it five million?

46:09Is it twenty? Is it zero? Because there's a number, right? It could be, and I'm completely open to, it's an unlimited number. No one woman should ever, ever have to face any sexual assault. Absolutely. And there is no cash value of men not approaching women that would go with that. But you can see why it's an interesting question, because you think if you are creating an environment in which men never approach women, I would imagine that, well, maybe it doesn't reduce sexual assaults. Maybe it doesn't even do that. I don't know. But let's say that it does. You would say, okay, well, it is a trade -off then, right?

46:45Because if you have sort of a trickle -down effect of men who aren't sexual assaulters, not approaching women who they wouldn't be sexually assaulting in an attempt to reduce sexual assault, you have this collateral damage with regards to approach anxiety. Absolutely. That's a phenomenal point you've raised. And look, this sort of goes back to our last conversation, and it's all about risk. No one wants to take any risks anymore. That's the main thing I see from Generation Z. We're very much inclined to be on our phones and scrolling through our phones and not wanting to go outside, starting businesses approaching people, meeting new people.

47:22Right, we have a generation of kids, both men and women that are entirely risk -aversed, that would prefer to live life in a bubble. Maybe, maybe COVID and the lockdowns are feeding into this. Maybe this is a side effect, but I think this was going on way before that. I think that we're only now seeing this metastasized, and it's only going to get worse as things progress forward. Mads Larson, you sent me a paper of his, and he's actually coming on the show in a couple of months. I met him at HBES, the Human Behavior and Evolutionary Society conference a couple of months ago. Sex ratio studies suggest that women's perception of there being few acceptable partners as activates a polygamous mindset which, in prosperous monogamous societies, drives promiscuity to the detriment of pair bonding.

48:06More than six million years of hominin evolution under promiscuous polygamous and monogamous regimes shaped make preferences that evoke different cultural and behavioral responses as environments change. The Church's imposition of lifelong monogamy contributed to the emergence in the modern world, but if this world's gender equal societies no longer motivate reproduction, being more open to polygamy could be worth considering as a means for increasing fertility. What do we think Vincent? Here we go. Here we go. So just to break down the argument for the audience, the fundamental question we're asking here is whether not polygamy would be able to end or reverse the fertility crisis, whether relationships or marriages where there is one man married to multiple women.

48:47In this case, that would be polygamy. Yes, polygamy would be conducive to more or children being born. And I guess we can sort of break this conversation down into two parts. The first part would be, well, what is the historical precedent regarding polygamy or polygamy? And whether or not it actually is conducive to increases in the fertility rate. So my contention, and I think that a lot of evolutionary psychologists, so your Amira gross bars, your Robert writes, your Matt Ridley's would probably agree with me in saying that polygamy is actually the norm and not the exception. It is actually monogamy, that is the exception, that is the new fangled invention in terms of the institution of marriage.

49:31So just to break down the historical evidence, there was a American psychologist by the name of George Murdoch who wrote a very influential book called The Ethnographic Atlas, where he surveyed 1 ,170 societies. And what he found was that 850 of those societies partook in polygamy of some kind, they're polygamous in nature. Now the interesting thing now is that another anthropologist by the name of Francois Nielsen took Murdoch's data and reanalyzed it. And he wanted to identify how many of these societies were monodamous. And so what he found was that it was something like 21 .5 % of hurting cultures were monodamous, 6 .5 % of advanced Hora cultural systems were monogamous, 10 .5 % of hunter -gatherers were monogamous, 2 .1 % of fishing cultures were monogamous.

50:24All of this is to say that monogamy is, again, is not the rule but the exception. Just to interject there, what you notice, even in those sort of four different types of societies, is that as the ability to accumulate wealth and resources increases, monogamy decreases because if you are a nomadic hunter -gatherer type person, how are you going to support two wives, bro? Right. Like, you're the meal that you eat is what you kill tomorrow. Excellent observation, Chris. Excellent observation. So that's exactly that inner of itself is a fundamental truth of these of these statistics that the more wealth that is that is sort of distributed across society and I guess the less centralized it is, the more likely it is for us to have a monogamous society.

51:11But that being said, just making the general point here around monogamy and polygamy, I do think that our species is more, I say, geared towards that, naturally geared towards that in terms of a factory setting, that is polygamy. So Joe Hendrick, I believe you had him on the podcast a little while ago. We just people in the world, Joe's great. Yeah, he's awesome. He's a Harvard psychologist for the audience to know. And he often conduct studies of his undergraduates, particularly women, and he often asked the question. Well, if you were given the choice of being the second wife of a billionaire or the primary exclusive wife of an average man, what would you choose?

51:48What do you think in terms of percentage of women chose to be the second wife of a billionaire, Chris? Do they think that their answers are going to be seen by the rest of the class? Let's just forget about that. If they did think that their answers are going to be seen by the rest of the class, it would be way, way, way toward the monotonous thing. Completely, completely private and anonymous. right. Oh, I would still think maybe only like 30 to 40 % of women would say the billionaire at an absolute top end. I can't imagine more than that. 70.

52:2270%. Elon keep popping them out, baby. Oh boy. Yeah. Well, that's that's staggering, right? So there is historical present for for polygamy and there is a modern precedent for it. I think if women were given the choice, as they are today in the form of soft philigomy or soft philigomy and soft herons, there is a lot of evidence to substantiate this institution of marriage. Well, I wonder, it would not surprise me. We have seen retreats into varying inner citadels all the way back. Do I tell you this one? I say, a bellines idea that Rob Henderson taught me. This is fucking awesome. Let me citadel.

53:03So, I say Billin says, when the natural road toward human fulfillment is blocked, human beings retreat into themselves, become involved in themselves and try to create inwardly that world which some evil fate has denied them externally. If you cannot obtain from the world that which you really desire, you must teach yourself not to want it. In short, if you cannot get what you want, you must teach yourself to want what you can get. This is a very frequent form of spiritual retreat in depth into a kind of inner citadel Well, in which you try to lock yourself up against all the fearful ills of the world.

53:35And Rob explained it in a simpler way. He said, if your leg is wounded, you can try to treat the leg. If you cannot, then you cut off the leg and announce the desire for legs is misguided and must be subdued. So it's like the, I don't need to lose weight. These airplane seats are too narrow argument, right? Maybe some bath waters, right? Yeah, so what you see what we have seen is an increasing number of different retreats all the way back is you know, I Don't need a man Children don't need a father in the home to be able to raise them That is an inner citadel retreat of I have struggled to find a man a father who was stuck about after we've had a child together From guys from the guys side just hold on boys, the sex robots are coming, the entire migtow movement, all of the sigma male, lone, grind set bro culture.

54:30All of that is a retreat from, I don't need to be hurt by other people, I don't need to be hurt and betrayed by friends or by partners or by society at large. And don't get me wrong, dude, I understand and have a massive sympathy for all of these people that have retreated into it, but I do think it's important for the people that are doing that to understand where this compulsion comes from, that this is them teaching themselves to get what they can get, not to get what they want. And you know, our own desires and what it is that we truly feel, we are so duplicitous to ourselves that we don't even know that we're being duplicitous.

55:08Right. It's unbelievably easy to make the world believe alive, you believe it first. So that's an effective way to do it. but you know, we've got all of these different retreats. One of them you saw with that TikTok girl with like the blonde Bob, and she was wearing like 1950s, it's the Tradwife, the Tradwife movement. Oh, that meme. Yeah, she even dressed in this sort of frilly, floral kind of dress thing. Anyway, so - Can I ask you a question regarding Tradwives, just a straight question? What Trad traditional Catholic wife, just a Tradwife of woman is on TikTok, beating like that? Yeah, well, that's a good question.

55:46That's the thing, right? I don't mean that kind of traditional.

55:52Okay, she clarified for me. Great. So, that was one. That one is probably a, not everything's an inner citadel. I don't want to make it an unfalcifiable theory, but that is a recanting of having to be too independent, having to make too many decisions. And you know, some people may say that that's a return to a more sort of ancestral form of living. You've also got one that would be it's bimboism, which is the opposite, a similar, but opposite end of the spectrum, which is women retreating from contributing to like the earning potential or socioeconomic uplift of themselves by themselves. So I'm not going to go to university.

56:35I'm not going to bother trying to get a job. I'm not going to bother chasing down a career. I'm just going to chase down the man. It's not quite tradwifi because I'm not doing it kind of in praise of the man. It's still a little bit more atomized, solipsistic, like individualism. It's tedious. It is. In some regards, but there's an amount of narcissism in there as well because it's all praying at the altar of going to brunch with the girls on Sunday. It's not praying at the altar of I want to make like acute family with sandwiches that are cut in triangles, which is like the tradwife equivalent of this.

57:10But what to get my long meandering fucking tale to get to where I'm going is it would not surprise me if we see a movement that tries to somehow empower women that polygyny is an effective strategy for them to move into because you have to create a cultural meme that legitimates people wanting what they can get. And if what you can get is being the second wife of a dude that earns 500 grand a year, how am I going to justify this to myself? And if there is a number of people trying to justify it to themselves, that creates essentially a market for a meme, right? We interject something into the culture.

57:52This is now the new broad, it's sigma wives, or it's like fucking like whatever I don't know. And then, boof, there you go. So the meme becomes reality. That's what you're stipulating. And I think I think that we're gonna get there. So Joseph Hendrick was involved in a Canadian court case. This was in British Columbia in 2011. I think he was, he was also involved with a academic out of Oakland University by the name of Todd Shackleford. And they were brought in as academic experts on the concept of polygamy and whether or not it should be legalized within the the province of British Columbia British Columbia and government of course shot it down.

58:32It's now five years in prison for marrying more than two people. But nevertheless, there was a interesting statistic that I saw the other day that stipulated that 36 % of Canadians were in favor of polygamy. or polygamy, they were in favor of that form of marriage institution coming along. In the United States, I believe it was another Pew Research statistic. It said that in 2003, 8 % of the population was in favor of polygamy or polygamy. And now in 2023, 23 % of people were in support of this institution of marriage. So we have seen a significant increase over the course of 20 years. I think I'll just make one point here, Chris.

59:18I think that the next major marriage debate or the massive marriage case was gay marriage, but now it will actually be polygamy. Yeah, that's interesting. Can you work out what the change in fertility would be from a polygamous society? If you looked at this, because I'm talking about women with no partner are unlikely to, less likely, to have a child. But not it's not impossible. A one night stand will get you a child pretty effectively if you time it right. But you have other contradictory challenges, especially if you're talking about polygene especially if you're talking about living in the same house together.

1:00:04You've got in fantasides, you've got poisoning of different kids, you've got, you know, I found this out that a child that lives in a house with a non -biological mother takes a huge number fewer lifetime visits to the doctor, just way less likely to the kids ill, like, yeah, whatever, like you'll be fine is not my kid. Even if you love him like he is your kid, seeing raw Darwinian forcing functions, a hell of a motivator. So, yeah, so talk to me, talk to me about the birth rate change, the fertility change that occurs due to polygamy and some of the challenges. I think the literature on it is quite scattered.

1:00:42So there really is no definitive evidence as to whether or not Polygamy or polygamy. I guess we're kind of flip flopping between these concepts. If it does have a substantive increase or impact I should say on on fertility rates. I always say that the answer is probably no. So the historical examples that I've looked at would indicate this. So a study was conducted in Ghana looking at for totality rates in 1988. So they're taking Department of Health Service records and trying to identify whether or not polygamous marriages equated to more children than monogamous marriages. And Ghana is an interesting example because it's one of a few West African countries.

1:01:22Well, one of few countries on the planet where 30 % of marriages are polygamous. And what that study found was that there was no difference between the couples that is polygamous and monogamous in terms of the amount of children had. The only mediating factor that determined the total fertility rate of a woman was how old she was at the point she was married. So the younger a woman is, the more likely she is to have woman over her reproductive lifetime, which makes complete sense. So the only conceivable reason as to why polygamy would have an impact on fertility rates is because it may influence women to get married to a resource rich man at a younger That's the only possible explanation.

1:02:06But even still, when PubMed sort of accumulated statistics of West African countries, they looked at Senegal, Togo, Guinea, Niger, Nigeria, and Ghana, and again, they compared the rates of total fertility between monogamous married woman and polygamous marriages. And they found that there's no difference in the total fertility rate between these two marriage institutions in these West African countries that higher that had rates of polygamy above 30 % in terms of all marriages. The difference was about 0 .1 to 0 .5. In fact in Ghana and Burkina Faso, the rates of total fertility were higher within monogamous marriages.

1:02:51Women in polypilligimus unions desire more children than women in monogamous unions. However, they do not have high fertility rates than women in monogamous. This is correct. And they're less likely to use contraception or earth control. So there is no evidence for it. Okay. So how the fuck is polygamy going to fix the birthright problem then? I thought this was your golden pill. I thought this is your magic bullet that was going to solve all the problems. trying to get me canceled again, bro? No, this is not this is not my golden pill. I don't I it's just silly argument to make it's it's it's it's I you know what I despise is most Chris it's when people present public policies that don't have any sort of empirical backing or the evidence on it is entirely scattered and they don't consider second and third order third order effects.

1:03:41So let's say for example that we did institute this policy of polygamy we made legal and it obviously doesn't work. But what does that affect going to what is that what effect is that going to have on crime rates with regard to to listless men no longer in marriages? It's going to be catastrophic. Exactly. It's going to be catastrophic. But I suppose we should turn two solutions. We should have a discussion around that and what we could potentially do. Have you looked at any countries or cases where they've increased their fertility rate? Hungary spent some ungodly proportion of their national GDP.

1:04:15Is Hungary the place? That's right. 4 .9 % of their national GDP went towards family and shellacare spending. And they did 25%, 50 % and 100 % discount for the first, second and third plus child. And that was discounted exclusively to the woman's personal income tax or the family income tax for the rest of time. Yeah, so I'll break it down in its entirety. So Hungary was the exact example I was going for. The Urobat administration has given a lot of flat but by God do they have some good policies with the relation to families and incentivizing children being born. So there's a there's something called the the fundamental law of Hungary which stipulates that the Hungarian government must have a vested interest in supporting Hungarian desired -hab children, which means that Hungary in 2019 devoted, as I 4 .9 % of the national GDP towards family and child care spending.

1:05:10The OECD average for that type of spending is 2 .55 % of the national GDP. So Hungary is mouse above in terms of spending. And in terms of the actual policies, they have one particular policy. It was the loan policy that you're referring to here, where any married couple, where the woman is between the ages of 18 in 40 can take out a general purpose loan interest -free. And if within the first five years of taking out that loan, a child is born, the loan continues to be interest -free and the payment is expanded or suspended for another three years. If a second child is born, then 30 % of the remaining principal is taken off the books and it's expanded for another three years.

1:05:56If a third child is born within that span, the The remaining principle is wiped off the map entirely, so it's gone. And I can list another set of policies that they've implemented. They have, and actually just to go back to that, to stipulate that the total loan, it was like 31 ,250 euros that you could take out interest free. But another policy that they have is with relation to a tax embarrassment. So every family, if they have a child, can have a tax reimbursement of 196 ,000 Hungarian in foreign, which is equivalent. I think if you do the conversion, it's about $550 USD every single year. Now maybe for the audience, $550 is not a lot of money, but if you take into consideration that 37 % of Americans do not have $500 to $1 ,000 saved up in terms of emergency spending, it's a lot of money.

1:06:49I think the most popular policy that they have out there is with regard to taxation. So if a woman in Hungary has four or more children, she is exempt from taxation until the age of retirement So she pays no income tax whatsoever and there's like a 15 % flat tax in Hungary What did that do to that birthright and increased it so From the early 2000s. I get the I guess the late 1990s throughout the 2010s Hungary's birth rates, or at least sorry, the fertility rate, the total fertility rate was 1 .3, right? So it remained stagnant and flat. Orban comes into power in 2010 or 2011, Fidesz wins, and these policies were implemented in 2015.

1:07:36In 2010, when Orban was in power, the fertility rate at Hungary was 1 .3. Now in 2023, the fertility rate is 1 .54. So it hasn't had a massive increase, but it's had, it has had an increase. So we had 10 years of stagnation, 20 years of stagnation, and all of a sudden these policies are implemented, and you see a growth in the fertility rate. There is evidence that this stuff works. Yes, however, we haven't got ourselves back to 2 .1. We haven't really even got ourselves close back to 2 .1, and it's cost 5 % of global GDP. I'd never national GDP. So in terms of interventions, yep, Hungary are trying some things, but I think that there are more fundamental forces at play here and it does seem a little bit like trying to swim upstream.

1:08:27Absolutely. So just referencing the, you know, fertility statistics a bit more internationally, there's a study by Valset in 2020 and they found that 23 countries would have their population reduced by 50 % or more by 2100. 34 countries would have their population reduced by 25 % to 50 % by 2100. 150 countries will no longer be able to sustain their current population by 2050. And this is because they're no longer having children at a replacement rate of 2 .1 or whatever it is, 2 .33 globally. Yeah, for every 100 Koreans, for every 100 South Koreans that exist now, there will be four great grandchildren.

1:09:11It's a 96 % extinction rate over the next 100 years. It's crazy. There are a lot of ones, I think. No point in eight. Not your home, my goodness. Yeah, no point in eight. So yeah, we have birth rate bad. We've spoken about it before. Birth rate is not good. Have you got anything by way beyond tax incentives and making childcare more affordable and allowing people to have loans and this sort of pyramid scheme staggering thing where more babies come out, more money goes in. What else have you considered anything? Have you got any more ideas? I have to think about it more because the issue here is doing research around public policy and what to and what exactly to implement.

1:09:53But I would say that what really will solve this issue is more of a social investment in families reinvigorating the institution of the family. Because I I don't think we care about the family as an institution very much, and it's the reason why a society is crumbling. If you look at the Roman Empire, for example, Brian Wurt Perkins wrote a book called of Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire, where he was looking at, well, the zenith of the Roman Empire and then the collapse. And he said that the reason why the Roman Empire was not able to sustain itself was because it was not able to perpetuate institutions from one generation to the next.

1:10:27Romans in one generation were not able to pass down the tenants and the importance of an institution to the next generation. The same thing applies to families within the West today. We are not able to to instantiate within children why families are important. We are not able to pass down the importance of this institution from one generation to the next. So it's no surprise why there is reduction for totality rate because we as a society are individualistic over individualistic the point of atomization. We no longer care about families we simply care about ourselves. And so if you if you only care about yourself there's no need to have having children, there's no desire to focus on anything but your career and how much money is in your pocket.

1:11:05And that's not to say that these things aren't important. It's obviously important to have money and be able to provide for the people around you, but you can't spend that money if you have no family. Who are you going to spend it on yourself? Yeah, you need a pro -mating culture, which I don't think that we have. And it's, you know, family is totally right. This Melissa County book, two -parent advantage you're going to love. But more than that, even before that, just the concept that men and women should get along, that they should be compatriots or collaborators, as opposed to enemies or competitors or an adversary to be used and discarded or avoided altogether, you know, it doesn't, from the very, very beginning of men and women interacting with each other, this situation doesn't lend itself to them working well together.

1:11:50So, yeah, I think cultural changes very much needed, individual, agentic changes very much needed, but yeah, it's fucking a role of the Dyson man. It's a real sort of kind of task about what's going to happen. I mean, ultimately it's not an existential risk, right? Like I've spoken about population collapse a lot over the last year. It's not a genuine existential risk. It's not the same as like nanotechnology or bioengineered weapons or AI. I mean, it's kind of not far off nuclear war because nuclear war wouldn't wipe everybody out. It would So an example actually would be, I guess it would be like those, you know, those Marvel movies where the purple guy snaps his fingers and half the people go away.

1:12:32That's actually the outcome. It's not just a bit more protracted. Yeah, but the thing is as well, like the quality of life for people, the only way that this doesn't absolutely annihilate quality of life for people is if we have AI that can supplant the current. supplement. Yeah, exactly. That's right. Well, look, that's what we're headed to. I mean, I would say that the only institutions that will not integrate AI right away are public sector institutions, law enforcement, for example, I know working with law enforcement organizations are not going to get rid of people governments are not going to get rid of people.

1:13:08They're going to keep them in their chairs doing work that a computer could do. But you are going to see this a lot in the private sector where sort of the needs of people perhaps healthcare, healthcare is one, certainly transportation delivery services. These are all going to be automated, right? We're not, we're, I would say within the next 30 years, we won't have any truck drivers. This is all going to be automated more than likely, self -driving trucks in one hour. Talk to me about your perspective on men's advice moving forward over the next few years. They're kind of at one of the linchpin's of what we've been talking about today.

1:13:42You know what it means to be a man, the culture of manhood, masculinity, and the advice as well that they're being given. What's your sort of feelings on where we're at now and your projection moving forward? I would say that the current situation is pretty bleak. So my view is that the current advice given to men is that you should have as many women as possible, level up, which is, level up is fine, but leveling up to what extent is the question. But it's more so engaging in vapid sexual relationships that yield nothing in the long term. So there is, it's always, the advice, I would say, is always geared towards short -term gain, but no long -term gain with relation to personal relationships.

1:14:19And what I notice most about the advice given is that it lacks honor. Right? We have a cohort of men that retreat within themselves and have no interest in benefiting society and the people around them. It's always about me, me, me. And if I were to give advice to men in terms of how to meet a viable partner, I would say go to places where you think you'd meet the people that hold the same ideas that you do, that have the same values you do, perhaps it's a church or a religious institution. Maybe it's a political conference where they like minedar. And you'd be very upfront and honest about what it is that you're looking for.

1:14:55You can really only be yourself. I know some guys in the red pillar in my eyes, he's a cock, he's blue pill, that's terrible advice. But if someone doesn't accept you for who you are, they're never going to accept you. So you might as well just be yourself and see where that takes you. Yeah. A lot of men's advice would rather you get into a relationship with someone who falls in love with a person that you aren't than you stay single for longer and find me find someone who gets into a relationship with a person that you are. That's right. Whenever you're on a date with someone, I always find that it's often like the person that you're sitting in front of is just a representative of that person.

1:15:29You know, they're trying to present the best possible. Yeah, press secretary just presenting the best possible image of that person. It's only when you really get into the third and fourth date that you kind of Realize that this person may not be who they said they were in the first date when Mr. and Mrs. Press secretary was listening all the talking points. One of the things that I've sort of noticed throughout today's conversation has been this rapid culture counterculture dispensing of moving on to the next one of tiny memes and of lifestyles. And I think we've definitely seen that with the red pill, you know, only probably two years ago when we last spoke.

1:16:05It was still in its ascendancy probably, you know, you didn't have big dating panel shows as the sort of de facto. So, Manosphere format. And in that time, they've ascended and now kind of dropped off on the back end, both Andrew and Tristan Tate distancing themselves from the Red Pill saying that it's for like in -cell artist versions or something. And yeah, they, it's so interesting to me how quickly these things ascend and how quickly these things descend on the other side. I have a theory about that and it's with relation to have you heard of the concept of Lindy? Yes, it seems to love the concept of Lindy so that which is a historical precedent will continue to be a precedent moving forward.

1:16:54I believe that Lindy applies to the red pill atmosphere in the sense that ideas which are naturally bad so the internal logic is is just awful or not sound. When it's brought into the mainstream, it accelerates its destruction. So in this case, the worst thing to ever happen to the red pill was that it was mainstream. Because it means that a lot of grifters are now going to be joining this environment, joining the circle of people that degrade the overall idea. Because again, the idea was subject to degradation in the first place. So I would say that there's a natural life cycle to this sort of content.

1:17:29There's a natural life cycle to all sorts of content, but I would say in the next five years, I'd be very much surprised if you still had the certain, I'm not going to name the people, why give them cloud on your channel, but I would assume that we wouldn't be seeing those faces on YouTube, at least not having the audiences that they do now. I mean, Ray William Johnson was a big YouTuber back in the day. Where is he now? It's an interesting woman. I really, really like that idea of public accelerationism, we can call it, or like exposure -based accelerationism, where any idea gets molested and perverted as it becomes way more popular.

1:18:07And that means that you need to have an unbelievably high purity, very, very robust idea at its center. And if there are any cracks, as it starts to get expanded out, those cracks will get expanded out too. Absolutely, and I would just say this point. So you mentioned Tate, which I thought was very interesting with relation to his affiliation with the Red Pill. I've always found it to be interesting because he's the type of person that professes to be four men. He's all four men's uplifting and improvement when he was a guy that was promoting only fans. He was running an only fans or a website of that nature.

1:18:45He sort of rags on men for being on only fans. It seems a bit hypocritical that someone that is actively involved in perpetuating this sort of content would then essentially be selling the cure to this content in terms of his ideology. It actually kind of ironically enough mimics a lot of what he says regarding COVID -19, where the same sort of people that apparently spread the disease, the same sort of people that make money off of selling the cure. Do you understand what I'm saying? It's very ironic. Well, you also have, you know, only fans and webcam girls and stuff like that are porn. So being being anti -porn was being in the essentially the porn industry.

1:19:23It seems like and odd duality to be able to hold together. I think his argument would be something along the lines of that is an older version of me. That was me doing what I wanted to do then or what I needed to do then in order to be able to achieve the level of success that I needed to get to. And there are cohorts of his fans that are absolutely have selective amnesia about what it is that happened. And you know, no, no, no, but that's an older version. and now there's like, you know, the Islam version or whatever it might be. And dude, like I've spoken to Andrew a good bit over the last five years and, you know, I've brought him on the show even though I didn't publish the episode.

1:20:06And one of the interesting pivots I think that needed to be made by him and like everything that he was doing was he needed to stop pointing the finger at women because it was getting him too much negative attention. And you notice, you can go back about 18 months ago and you will see that up and to that point, a lot of the finger pointing stuff, he did that date with that girl. It's like a British girl, she does loads of different dates. Drilling things, that's it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I remember it's called, I don't know. Everyone knows what I mean. It's got like tens of millions of plays.

1:20:42And just before that was when I noticed, or round about that time, was when I noticed that the rhetoric had stopped from being like women are, and women should be, to men can be. And I think that it's a much more sanitized version of this, right? Because saying that people can be better is significantly harder to see as being nefarious than like you are... Like, why aren't you in the kitchen, making a sandwich, blah, blah, blah. Like, and that's a way to sanitize it. And maybe that's an awakening that occurred, or maybe it was a tactic to be able to kind of keep the same audience but pivot the talking.

1:21:21It's a shifting of political messaging. I think that could be what it is as well. But the selective ad measure thing is interesting, but because it was only 2020 that he was running these campsites, right? It's not that far away. I know COVID has sort of extended people's memory of these sort of things, but 2020 was only three years away. Or three years ago, and I think with the Hustle's University, there was a module around pinging your, the girls in your life. Okay, I'm not, I'm not making, trying to make this out to be an andriutate, you know, criticizing our, but I, I like to be very critical of everyone and try and try to look at it from a very logical perspective and understand what exactly people's ideologies are and whether or not they're being completely bulletproof and truthful in what they're presenting and whether or not it's just a grift.

1:22:06I'm very conscious of this issue now that, that very famous people are, are sort of getting one over the general population. It's while it comes onto podcasts like yours because I know who you are on the camera and I know who you are off the camera and those people are the same. Well, it's hard. It is hard in some degrees and I can see why definitely as scrutiny increases in Andrew had started talking about this. He sort of had this line that he's been trutting out for a good while, which I think is true, which is the things that you say when you've got a thousand people watching aren't the things you can say when you've got a billion people watching.

1:22:43And I think he's he's right in that regard. Like kind of the same as the purity of the idea thing, you know, in efficiencies and inaccuracies in what you say and how you put it across, they become magnified when you have a city's worth of people watching everything that you do. You know, like, million to one odds happen eight times a day in New York. And this is kind of the same. You know, the million to one misinterpretation happens tons of time today if you're the most, if you're the most Google person on the internet. So yeah, I think, you know, it would be interesting to see what the space of men's advice looks like over the next few years.

1:23:30The Washington Post, Christine Embers article was fantastic. Another one just came out today. a political did a, a, a, called like the men's issue or something like that. And among that was seven different articles. That's nine articles in total. I've told you about the zero were written by men. Ah, I suppose I could turn the question on you now. So what do you think the future of this, uh, this fear will be? Um, I, I don't think that Jerry Springer for the TikTok generation, can continue much longer. That's right. Because I just don't think that there's any there there. And ultimately the way that you feel after you've watched some of this stuff, there is some great manosphere and red pill content out there.

1:24:18And even, you know, the guys that sometimes get a bit more wayward also have like diamonds in the rough and fair fucking play. But ultimately like your content diet should be spirulina for your soul, not fast food for your a migdala and the way that I feel after I watch some manosphere content, to be frank, even if I watch like Destiny having a debate with like a pro -lifer or something which has got really nothing to do with the manosphere, I'm tense, am I shoulders are high and there's a ringing in my ears and like the back of my head feels tight and I just don't want to feel that way. And even if you can limbically hijack your way to getting locks and lots of plays, I do think that sooner or later people going to catch on.

1:25:05The same way as most people that are moderately educated aren't eating McDonald's every night, even if it would taste good. Like it's food in some ways, but it's also not food in some ways too. So yeah, I don't know what the future of the men's advice stuff has, man, like it's a it's a real fucking coin toss at the moment. The choice between sedated and listless or angry and blissless. I would rather not have everything be set on fire, but only by like the tiniest of slivers and the only reason that I can make that choice is because we're not at war. You know, if there was some sort of enemy force that everybody needed to be galvanized against just turning the switch off on porn hub, Instagram, TikTok and video games and Xbox and PlayStation would be the best thing that you could do.

1:25:57Like, all right, sure, like men are angry, predominantly man have been victimized by this crime. What are they going to do? Get angry and then, okay, we'll point it in the fucking enemy's direction. Yes. Yes. It's tough to say. I mean, with regard to the manosphere and this sort of content, the most interesting person I think in terms of a change or shift for me has been that sneaker character, that guy, because he went all the way from being sort of a degenerate in terms of his messaging, to now sort of level headed in what he proposes. It's quite interesting because he may be emblematic of the overall movement of that movement, that they may shift from sort of the Gautgea, Jerry, Springer content, to more wholesome content.

1:26:44It is very much possible going from a heavy metal band to Christian rock. I wonder, I've asked this question for ages. I wonder how many of the realizations and personal growth arcs that we end up relying on are just by products of getting older. Like how much of it was you manifesting your reality and I wrangled entropy and I did the agentics of an individual thing and how much of it was yeah dude and now you just 35 like and and now you've got a bit more time and wisdom and the about and it was coming along for the ride. The inside were there along for the right. Rooosh, V. Yep. Neil Strauss, I'm talking to his assistant at the moment about bringing him on the show.

1:27:28I sat next to Tucker Maxx at dinner on Saturday night. We've known each other for a little while. So that was cool. You know, it's that next to his wife. He's telling me about his five kids that are at home and the problems he's having with his lambs. It's a lambing season. He's got that lambs us and bullshit and one of them got caught in the kids climbing frame and I was like, this is the guy that wrote, I hope this have been in hell. And Neil Strauss, Neil Strauss sounds like a born again, like unreligious born again Christian and Rouch actually is a born again Christian. And you know, you just have this, you absolutely have this sort of Chad to dad arc.

1:28:06But growing up. Growing up. The growing up pipeline, yeah. Yes. That's fun, isn't it? Yeah, the actual cycle of young adulthood to adulthood and again, again, think about the fact that like if you're growing up you're You know how the accusation always gets more attention than the retraction in headlines It's almost it's almost like the most effective the most egregious version of yourself is the one that'll get all of the plays and then the Milk toast vanilla. I've got lambs and four kids at home version of yourself has as exited so it's it's like permanently making accusations for the more hedonistic, gregarious out there, shiny, shiny object lifestyle.

1:28:50But you don't ever actually publish the retraction, which is, oh, and I grew out of that. So everyone's like left with this open loop of, I bet Tuckham Axe is still slaying pus. You know what? He's been a foreign person. He's a home -blaming. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Look, Vincent Haranam, ladies and gentlemen, dude, I love you to bits. I'm really, really glad to see you back again. I'm super excited. We haven't spoken about what you've got coming up next, but I'm sure that'll be released and made public within the next year, probably within the next few months to a year. Where are you intending on getting back on anything publicly?

1:29:25You're still a digital ghost, no? Still digital ghost. I thought about it. I know you and I were having a discussion about whether or not I would sort of come on and be a public facing person and be a public intellectual, it would just not going to happen. You know, with me, if I have to think about something and I'm not actively doing it, I'm probably not interested in doing it. And I think my writing style, the way in which I produce my work, just isn't conducive to this environment. Everyone wants content very quickly, a week, you know, I'd be day, I can't do that. I need to think very closely and carefully about an idea and get it out in a couple months.

1:29:55And that I don't think is conducive to a long career in this sort of environment. And I just don't want to do social media, I just want to be left alone just to have my head down and do the things that I want to do. I, the Goggins is my man. I mean, we look, we all have a patron saint in this sort of environment. I think yours is kind of like maybe Rogan, sort of the podcasting fear of mine is Goggins, man. You know, just, just get an after, get in your head down and do what you need to do. Get back to the lab man. I appreciate you. Absolutely. Chris, buddy, thank you so much for having me. I love you brother.