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Podcast Summary: Modern Wisdom Episode #749 - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz: The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA
Episode Overview In this episode of the Modern Wisdom podcast, host Chris Williamson interviews Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a data scientist and author, who dives deep into the statistical analysis of the NBA. Using advanced AI techniques, Seth presents fascinating insights about the players, their backgrounds, and various hidden trends within the sport.
Key Themes
- Genetics and Physical Attributes in Basketball
- The rarity of height and its implications on NBA selection.
- The relationship between height and success in basketball.
- Genetic predispositions influencing basketball skills.
- Effectiveness of the NBA Draft
- Analysis of the draft's effectiveness in selecting talent.
- The correlation between pre-draft statistics and post-draft performance.
- Cultural and Socio-Economic Factors
- The impact of socio-economic backgrounds on player success.
- The popularity of basketball and its effects on the pool of potential players.
- Choking Under Pressure
- Height as a factor influencing performance in clutch moments.
- The psychological elements contributing to performance anxiety in players.
Detailed Insights
Height and NBA Selection
- One in Seven: Approximately one in seven individuals over 7 feet tall play in the NBA, a significant advantage highlighting the genetic lottery associated with this characteristic.
- Height Advantage: Each additional inch reportedly doubles the chances of making it to the NBA, with players under 5'10" facing an almost insurmountable barrier.
Genetic Influence on Performance
- Genetic Lottery: Traits such as height, wingspan, and hand size are largely genetic and crucial for success in basketball.
- Identical Twins: The prevalence of identical twins in the NBA suggests a strong genetic component to basketball ability, as twins share 100% of their genes.
Analyzing the Draft's Effectiveness
- Draft Statistics: The NBA is more successful than other sports in accurately predicting player success based on draft position.
- Overperformance of High School Players: Historically, players who went straight from high school to the NBA outperformed their draft spots, indicating a selection inefficiency.
Cultural and Socio-Economic Influences
- Background Impacts: Players from upper-middle-class backgrounds are often more successful, challenging the stereotype of the "poor kid from the ghetto" being the primary route to success in basketball.
- Common Names among Black Players: The analysis of names among NBA players highlights socio-economic factors; common names correlate with more stable family backgrounds.
Performance Under Pressure
- Clutch Performance: Taller players, particularly over 6'10", tend to choke in high-pressure situations more than shorter players.
- Psychological Resilience: Players with tough upbringings, such as Jimmy Butler, often display better performance under pressure, indicating that life challenges can enhance mental toughness.
Thoughts on Player Development and College
- College Selection Debate: Attending elite colleges can provide initial advantages but does not guarantee long-term success in the NBA.
- Importance of Hard Work: While hard work is essential, genetic factors often play a more critical role in basketball success, particularly regarding physical attributes.
Conclusion This episode with Seth Stephens-Davidowitz provides a comprehensive look at how underlying statistics and genetic factors shape the landscape of the NBA. From the rarity of height to socio-economic influences, Seth's insights challenge conventional wisdom and offer a data-driven perspective on athletic success.
Key Takeaways
- Height is a significant advantage in basketball, with genetic predispositions influencing player success.
- The NBA draft is effective at predicting talent, but historical inefficiencies exist.
- Socio-economic background plays a crucial role in player development and success.
- Performance under pressure varies significantly, often influenced by height and life experiences.
For further exploration of these topics, listeners are encouraged to check out Seth's book, which discusses these findings in greater depth.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00What percentage of seven footers are in the NBA? To the best of our knowledge, it's about one in seven, which is enormous. Pablo Torres, the first guy who calculated this, I've done a similar calculation. And everyone seems to unite around this number around one in seven, which just insane. Is there any other pursuit, glamorous pursuit, where one trait gives you a one in seven chance of reaching the absolute pinnacle of that field? I don't think so. But think about all the six in seven people that could have been on an NBA player's wage. Yeah, they must feel terrible. Dude, you blew it. I mean, I guess they can, a lot of them are probably playing a bride.
0:40You know, they're probably our basketball players regardless and having fun and, you know, making a living playing a game, but they're not getting the NBA wage for sure. How rare is seven foot height? Being seven footer above is one in 650 ,000 height.
1:00That is such a genetic lottery. Yeah, I mean, it's, yeah, you're basically, yeah, I don't think there's any other gene that gives you such a chance of being a famous multi -millionaire. Yeah, that's a good point. What else do you learn about height? So one of the things interesting about height is, and basketball is each inch roughly doubles your chances of making the NBA. like throughout the height distribution. So if you're six foot tall, you have basically twice the chances of becoming an NBA player than if you're five foot 11. If you're six one, twice the chances than if you're six feet all the way out to if you're seven two, you have twice the chance than you're seven one.
1:37Like throughout the height distribution, what that means is just there's this enormous difference in probability of reaching the NBA. We said one in seven chance if you're a seven footer, if you're under five ten, which is the average height of an American male, you have a one in three point eight million chance, of reaching the NBA. It's basically impossible. I mean, there are exceptions. I talk a lot in the book about one of my favorite players, Mugsy Boogs, Five Foot Three, and played 14 seasons in the NBA. So it's not impossible, but it's pretty close to impossible. Probably not worth putting much energy even trying.
2:12What are the disadvantages of being told from a player perspective? There is, if you look at the tallest humans in history, many of them are over 8 feet tall, and just about all of them, it's due to a thyroid disease. You literally, there's a growth hormone that just overproduces, growth hormone is overproduced. There has been at least one NBA player who got to his height through a thyroid disease. That's George Murerson. Some people might remember him because he also was an actor for a little bit. and he was literally, it was a disease that gave him that height. His parents were average height.
2:51And if you're that tall just from a disease, you're going to have all kinds of problems. A lot of the tallest people in history, very few of the tallest people in history even make it past the age of 40. But I think one of the other things that's interesting is that seven footers or just taller NBA players in general are just way worse athletes, anyway we can measure it. They jump much less high, they're much slower, where there were shooters, they are, this kind of a surprise battle. They gave anybody a show this before. They're worse in the clutch. They can't handle pressure to the same degree shorter NBA players.
3:23Ken, and I think the reason for this is just because the select, the advantage of being tall is so enormous that you kind of don't have to be as good at anything else. So, you know, if you're six feet tall and you're competing against millions of other people for that point guard spot, you better be an insane athlete. six foot NBA players, they run as fast as a sprinter. They jump as high as a high jumper. They shoot as well as anybody in the world can shoot. They can handle pressure incredibly. They're just so good to beat out millions of other people to that spot. If you're seven feet tall and you're competing with dozens of other men for your spot, you don't have to be that good.
4:06You just have to be one in seven good. So the average seven footer, his vertical leap is only a little bit higher than the average person and could achieve with enormous practice, he's slower than an average runner on a high school track team. He shoots worse than an average high school basketball player. He handles pressure worse than an average high school basketball player. He's just not that great, but he is really, really tall. Well, it begs the question, why are tall players so prioritized? If they're less good, psychologically, cardiovascularly, physically, whatever, why do they keep getting selected?
4:48Well, because they are, it is an advantage. They grab more rebounds, they block more shots. I mean, the basket is up there. Or maybe a, yeah, the basket is up there. The basket's not in the ground. The basket's in the sky, you know, 10 feet above the ground. And I think when that's the case, it's a huge advantage to be really tall, to be able to reach higher, to be able to get higher, to block shots, to grab rebounds, to do all these things, to be able to get your shot off without being blocked. I wondered whether you were going to have some sort of an insight, money ball style insight, where you were going to say all of the NBA teams need to start drafting more six foot two people, because the trade -off that you get for athleticism, from a wider pool of potential people, is greater than the advantage you get from being seven one or whatever.
5:39No, I don't think that's true. I mean, it is legitimately true that seven, you know, Shaquille O 'Neill dominate the NBA for many seasons, even though, you know, I'm a better free throw shooter than Shaquille O 'Neill. One of the, that's one of the core skills of basketball, and I who am not particularly good at never play can hit a higher percent of my free throws than Shaquille O 'Neill can. But he legitimately, I wouldn't say, you know, to the Lakers, Hey, have you thought of picking up Seth? He shoots re -throws better than Shaq. Like I legitimately think Shaq dominated basketball, but it is kind of a weird unfair advantage.
6:13It does feel almost like a little, I don't know, as a fan of the game, it feels like it's almost a bug in the game that height is such an advantage. Like if they, like the ideal sport, you know, you shouldn't be able to reach the top of a sport the way George Miersan did through a growth hormone disorder. like that should it, you know, it feels like off in how, you know, an athletic pursuit. What, what it should take to reach the top of that athletic pursuit. But yeah, I'm not telling players, you know, don't, you know, cut Joe L. M. B. because he can't jump as high as, you know, a six foot player.
6:51Like he still does help the team, but he definitely, it definitely is true that they are worse athletes. Yes. Laffes in thyroid disorder like that. All right. So what about, are you able to compare like for like different players of different heights and say what if Mugsy Boggs had been six, seven, what, how good would have he been? Yeah. I was able to mathematically figure this out, which was the most fun I've ever had on any study I've ever done. You know, as a shorter man, I'm about five, nine. I think on a good day. So I think I kind of did this calculation. I rank people. I called it Mugsies which stands for metric for understanding game given sporting individuals effectiveness and size and I ranked every player, you know, the math is in a appendix for those who are really curious how good they would be if they were at the same height, how many Mugsies they'd have.
7:48And number one is Mugsie Boggs, who's just achievement is so ridiculously insane to be an NBA player for 14 seasons. Even if he wasn't the greatest NBA player, he was a decent NBA player for 14 season that five foot three inches tall. It's insane. You know, other players, Earl Boykins and Spud Web Rank really high. Michael Jordan, interestingly, still ranks number nine on a height adjusted. Despite being like six, six, isn't yeah, because he was so, so good. So he is legitimately one of the greatest at his craft he've ever seen. But if Mugsy and Michael were the same height, I think Mugsy, I think it's on him, big US in the day of the way I've cut the data that Mugsy would be the more dominant player.
8:29Mugsy would be the one who would be making the documentaries about who he'd think is the quintessential at mastering his craft, at mastering his craft, at determination, at work ethic, and all these other things that we now associate with Michael. Michael had a enormous talent, a enormous drive, a enormous work ethic, enormous anything. And he also had a enormous height, which, you know, some of these other guys didn't have. What do, like, why is it that players come from the countries that they do? Obviously basketball wildly overrepresented by the USA, but if One in seven people over seven feet tall, why are Scandinavian countries that I think have got the tallest average height in the world?
9:16Why have we not seen loads of daines or Norwegians or something? Yeah, so a big thing is popularity of basketball, obviously, obviously plays into how many basketball players a country produces. And there really only three regions of the world where basketball is extraordinarily popular. United States where it was invented, the Baltic States, former Yugoslavia. So if you're growing up playing basketball, you know, the average person, I'm sure there are countless people around the world who if they started practicing when they were five, could shoot a ball like Steph Curry or could do, you know, everything with a basketball like James Hardin, but they never even think to do that.
10:00They're playing soccer or they're playing some other sports. So that's really important. There are some subtle things that go into how how many basketball players country produces one that I found which I found very very interesting and after you say it's extremely obvious that predicts how many basketball players the country produces is volleyball popularity because there's only one other sport that uses height the same way basketball does and that's So the average volleyball player has basically the same body type as the average small forward in the NBA about six foot eight on average You know recently thin enormous leaper and I didn't know this.
10:38I'm such a you know an American that I'm like who the hell cares about volleyball So I excuse my naive a day, but in writing this book I found that In Iran, volleyball is five times more popular than basketball, and there are numerous countries around the world where volleyball is more popular than basketball. It's more popular than basketball in Brazil, in Bulgaria, in Russia, and Italy, in Puerto Rico. What you see is in these countries where volleyball is more popular than basketball, you see fewer NBA players than you'd otherwise expect, and particularly fewer forwards than you'd otherwise expect.
11:15because a lot of these taller people, these six foot eight, six foot nine people, are playing volleyball instead. You know, in the United States, Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James, when they grew their enormous height, I don't think anybody was like, hey, if you thought of spiking a ball, you know, that's the dream. But the guys who grow to be six, eight, six, nine, six, 10 in Bulgaria, the dream is to spike a volleyball, which is a horrible financial decision. You know, like, I think I talk about this player from Bulgaria who leaps higher than anybody has ever been measured in the NBA. And he makes 300 ,000 euros a year, which is a great salary.
11:53That's not that that's not terrible, but that is so far below the NBA minimum salary. Like someone's shoe allowance the one week in the NBA. Yeah. You know, if any, if any enormous men in Bulgaria or Brazil or Iran are listening to his podcast right now, I want to to tell you practice your free throws, not your spiking. That's where the modi is in the world. That's the real win, I would say. Just how genetically predisposed or predetermined is basketball success? enormously, basketball is an enormously genetic, more genetic than pretty much others, any others for we can measure. The way to see this is the prevalence of identical twins in basketball.
12:40Well, there have been a enormous number of paris of identical twins who have reached the NBA. 11 pairs of twins have reached the NBA. All 11 of them have been identical. And this is not true in other sports. More than 10 % of pairs of brothers in the NBA have been identical twins way higher than other sports. That's a dead giveaway that genetics are driving basketball ability because identical twins unlike fraternal twins or unlike other brothers share a hundred percent of their genes, not fifty percent of their genes. So if one happens to get a really good draw of genetics, the other is going to get that same draw.
13:19And I did a calculation that probably more than half of, if a player is in the NBA and he has an identical twin, he has a more than 50 percent chance of also being in the NBA. Like if you get that same draw of genetics, you're like destined to be an amazing player as well. Now a huge reason for this of course is because height is so important, height is very genetic, about 80 % genetic. But a lot of other skills that are important, a lot of other traits that are important in basketball, hand size, arm, leg, wingspan, vertical leap, sprinting speed, also really, really genetic. best well seems like the sport designed in a lab to rely on genetics.
14:03Like just it heavily uses the skills that are 70, 80, 90 % genetics and doesn't really use the skills that are 20, 30, 40 % genetic that some other sports do. One of the skills that are 20, 30, 40%. So reaction time, handedness, whether you're left -year -righty is much less genetic, hand -eye coordination, much less genetic. So something like shooting in the Olympic sport, which is really hand -eye coordination, that's not going to be super genetic. But how can you say that basketball isn't hand -eye coordination? Yeah, no, there is definitely importance of hand -eye coordination, but just relative to the other sport, relative to baseball, for example, which is all hand -eye coordination, to hit a bet, you know, all of baseball is being able to, you know, hit, get the swing to hit the ball, which is hand -eye coordination or a reaction time reflexes.
14:59That's, that's not as genetic. That baseball is just so dependent on that. Whereas basketball, the skills that are more important, height, wingspan, you know, vertical leap. Why is, why is hand size so important? Yeah, that actually I hadn't realized until I wrote this book. Basically, the ability to palm a ball is, I always got to get my hand in the screen. The ability to palm a ball. Now I reveal I do not have Yannick or why Leonard hands. Another reason I couldn't have that. I need to go and waving around the Donald Trump hands. But I being able to palm a ball hugely valuable to grab a rebound with one hand to be able to dribble better with Billy of Palm of Palm really, really valuable.
15:53Phil Jackson coached famously coached both Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. And he was asked if you could pick one player, who would you pick? And he said Michael Jordan because Jordan had enormous hands and Kobe Bryant didn't and Kobe Bryant admitted the one thing he changed about his body as he wished he had bigger hands. So it's kind of known in the basketball world that hands are valuable and a lot of all time great had enormous hands even for their height, you know, whether it's Janice or Wilts or chef. How big do these hands get? 12 inch, 12 inch hand width. the average is about eight inches, so just very, very, you know, a foot.
16:33Yeah, like, this is like a foot long. Yeah. That's insane. That's insane. Yeah, but hands, and you could look at pictures of, you know, quiet Leonard is another player with legendarily large hands. You know, look at pictures of his hands. They're freakish hands. And it turns out that as NBA teams have known that hand size is really important, but it doesn't seem like they quite knew just how important it was that if you look at the draft, you know, at the NBA kind of mind, they measure players' hands with the players. And players with wide hands historically have done better, you know, by advanced metrics than you'd predict based on their draft spot.
17:17And players with, you know, tiny hands, the Donald Trump hands, they're just awful players. I think 17 of 19 players who had hands below eight inches below average, a perform below their draft spot. And most of them just couldn't even be NBA players. So I think it's known that hand size is important. I don't think it's been appreciated just how important it is that it is up there with the height and the wingspan, the skills, the traits that we know are really, really important or the vertical leap. Are there any of the sports that you know of that are highly genetically influenced in the same way that volleyball and basketball are?
17:54Track and field seems to be very genetically influenced, also dominated by identical twins. If you look at Track and field, the Olympic Track and Field athletes, the percent of same -sex siblings that are identical twins is up there with basketball. And I think sprinting speed seems particularly, seems also very genetic, that you're saying bolt or whatever. you know, I want to bet on his son to be a tremendous runner. So that is another sport that is highly, highly genetic. How important are your parents beyond the genetics thing? Yeah, so the average American male has a one in 36 ,000 chance of reaching the NBA.
18:42The average son of an NBA player has a one in 43 chance of reaching the NBA. So one in 36, are you able to one in 36 to one in 41, 13 ,000 to one in 43? Are you able to control for the physical inheritance, like the height and all the rest of it? A little bit. It's a little hard to do, but it clearly, so that's a 744 times higher chance of reaching the NBA than, you know, a sudden NBA player. Now a lot of that is genetics, but it's pretty clear it's not all genetics. And if you have a father who was a professional player, was an NBA player, you're gonna get really good coaching from an early age.
19:22And one of the things I saw in the data is sons of NBA players. On many dimensions, they look very similar to other NBA players. You know, they have similar heights, they have similar weights, their stats are pretty similar, mostly, but they shoot free throws extraordinarily well. So the average NBA player shoots free throws 75 % at a 75 % clip. Suns of NBA players shoot free throws at an 80 % clip. And that's a bit five percent points a very big difference in free throw shooting and 8 % of the top 50 free throw shooters of all time have been sons of NBA players Whereas only 2 % of NBA players more generally are sons of NBA players.
20:02the greatest free throw shooter of all time, Steph Curry, son of an NBA player, Del Curry. And you see just, you know, Devon Booker,
20:17many, many NBA players, Clay Thompson, many NBA players, extraordinary free throw shooters. One of the things that's interesting, and okay, so why is that? Well, form is so important in shooting. and if you have an NBA player for a father, they're gonna be helping you on a form, your form from a very young age.
20:41And that's a huge advantage in working your shot from a very young age, it's just a huge advantage. One thing you see among NBA players, it's very interesting, NBA players, their sons, they tend to be shorter than they were because there's regression to the mean. Yeah, so Clay Thompson's father was a number one pick as a center. He was six foot 10 and he was about a 60 % free throw shooter, not extraordinary free throw shooter. Clay Thompson's only six foot six, but he's an 80 % plus free throw shooter. So what you see is the physical traits, they regress to the mean, but the shooting which requires that early training, the form, they're just much better at that.
21:24So, you know, there have been many examples of NBA players who are power -forward centers themselves and they have sons who are shooting guards. So they don't get quite as much of the height, you know, as they had, but they get that early training to improve the shooting. Yeah, very interesting. I feel like I missed my shot because I also read that Chris is the most common name for Black NBA players. So if only I could have fixed the problem of not being black. Yeah, that was your first mistake. Yeah, well I guess I guess I was not black before I was called Chris. Yeah, so yeah, maybe So Chris is the most common name among NBA players now.
22:09Why is that that seems just like a random piece of trivia? It gets to a bigger question of what's the socio -economics of NBA players and for a long time conventional wisdom was that so that M .D .N .B .A. was disproportionately sampling from people from Roth backgrounds, tough backgrounds, the ghetto, you know, impoverished, single parents, and the idea behind that was if you're let's say a black boy impoverished in the ghetto and you're pretty good at basketball. That is your one chance of getting out escaping your hardship, escaping your circumstance, you know, to become an NBA great. And you will do whatever it takes, work as hard as it is required to reach the top of basketball.
23:00Whereas if you're, you know, the son of a lawyer and a doctor in the suburbs, and yeah, you're pretty good at basketball, Well, you have so many options that you're not going to spend day and night practicing basketball, devoting yourself to this pursuit. That has never been true. There is initially a study by Josh Gibrow and Jimmy Adams that showed that both among Caucasians and African Americans being from an upper middle class or above family is a huge advantage in reaching the NBA. And I've done my own study at NBA players much less likely than the population at large and the black NBA players much less like the black population large to be born to a single mother to be born to a teenage mother.
23:47On any way you can look at the data being from a two -parent home, upper middle class or middle class or above huge advantage to reaching the MBA. And the most maybe interesting data point for that is the names of NBA players. There is a paper by Roland Fryer and Steve Levitt that found that among the African -American population, you can tell the demographics of someone pretty well just based on their name and that African -Americans from higher socioeconomic backgrounds are more likely to be given common names, names that are very popular in the population at large. African -American from lower socioeconomics, from poverty, from the ghetto, more likely to be given rare, unique names, names that nobody else is given that year.
24:37So an example of that, I'm pretty sure is LeBron. Now LeBron is probably a common name because everybody who wasn't named their kid after LeBron, but when LeBron was born, and he was born to a more difficult background, a single 16 -year -old mother in Akron, Ohio, LeBron was a unique name. It wasn't given to other people that year. It wasn't given to, it wasn't a name that other people had as well. If you look at NBA players, their half is likely, black NBA players are half as likely as the black population writ large to have unique names. They're much more likely to have names, Chris, Michael, Marcus.
25:16In the book, I have a whole word cloud of the names of NBA players and the most common name by a pretty wide margin is Chris. Chris, you know, yeah. So you think of Chris Paul or Chris Bosch, many other examples. And Chris Paul is a great example of a player from two parents home, middle class, the family joined him on an episode of Family Feud. You know, that's kind of where the NBA is getting their players much more than conventional wisdom told us. So Michael Jordan, another example, grew up in middle class, two paired family and born in Brooklyn, raised in North Carolina, very stable upbringing.
25:59That's where the NBA is getting their talent by and large. Now, of course, not always, which means we have to give that much more credit to LeBron James of the world because they really did overcome a lot to... He's only been five foot three as well. Yeah. Seven in chance. Yeah. Then we'd really have to give him a lot of credit. Exactly. Just how dominated is the NBA by black players or African American heritage? Yeah, it's about 80 % of American born players, are African American, which I didn't get into. Some of that, I don't go into the reasons for that, which is probably beyond the scope of my study.
26:43And some of it is legitimately cultural. But black advantage, I didn't actually put this in the book, but the black advantage in basketball is smaller among Americans than it is larger among Americans than it is among Europeans or people from the Caribbean or so other regions of the world there isn't such a big advantage for black people and I think part of the reason is that basketball is just so popular in the black community in the United States that you know if you surveys that ask whether you're a huge basketball fan, African Americans are about twice as likely as other Americans to say they're huge basketball fans.
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27:25So it is, you know, any, again, being a big fan of the sport is a huge advantage to reason the top of the sport. That's why there are so many more players from the United States than there are from great Britain, for example. You know, I don't think, you know, most people, you'd probably be more of an expert on this topic than I am, but I don't think most people growing up in London are dreaming of being a basketball player, they're dreaming of being, you know, they're not dreaming of being Chicago Bull, they're dreaming of being an arsenal player. Yeah. And I think, you know, at any time, any community, whether it's a country or a race or, you know, anything else that, where basketball is really popular is going to produce more than their fair share of NBA talent.
28:12What determines who chokes under pressure? Yeah, so this is so one of these very interesting is People choking basketball I think more than a lot of other sports So you look at the average NBA player you compare free throws kind of nor how they shoot free throws normally and free throws is a great test of choking because it's the exact same situation throughout the game you're shooting from the same spot no defenders and the average NBA player shoots free throws more than one percentage point lower in clutch moments, five minutes or less on the clock, gain within five points than in other times.
28:54So the average NBA player is a choker. This kind of surprising because in a lot of sports, we found that players don't choke. And the reason for that is to reach the top of a sport, you have to be so mentally tough. The average person, of course, is going to choke under a pressure moment, but they're just gonna be knocked out way before they reach the top of their sport. Right? So, you know, if you can't handle a pressure penalty kick, your problems are gonna reveal themselves in high school, log before, you know, you're playing in the world cup or, you know, or whatever. And similarly, you know, studies have shown that baseball players had not to choke.
29:30So why do basketball players so consistently choke? And I think this gets the point again, I don't love hammering the seven footers in large part because I feel like when a five nine person is attacking people taller than him, he seems like he has a horrible Napoleon complex. So I hesitate to use my book as just seven footers secretly all sock and tall people sock because there's a dangerous pattern of shorter men doing things like this out of their own insecurity and resentments. But I can't lie in the data the only thing I could find that predict choking was height that taller players just choke more And I think the reason for that is there's just not much selective pressure on taller NBA players if you have to only have to be If one in seven seven footers reach the NBA You only have to be have one in seven basketball ability or receive the NBA You don't have to be that graded, everything.
30:28You don't have to be the world's most mentally tough person because they're just aren't enough seven footers to choose from and So the average six footer in the NBA shoots free throws exactly the same in the Non -plutch moments and clutch moments, but the average seven footer shoots free throws more than six percentage points worse in clutch moments So just an enormous tendency to choke among the tallest NBA players. Well, didn't you say that you wanted the NBA to have a height cut off? Because you thought it would make the game more exciting. That was another one where I'm like, God, if I say this, first of all, people are going to call me a high test or something like that.
31:07I don't know whether you can be a high test around the people that have got it, that got the advantage. Yeah. I just, I know, I make clear in the book that I don't think there actually should be a high advantage. I think if there were a high cutoff, if there were a high cutoff cutoff, I think it's audio ambiguous that there would be more talent in the game that the shooting would be better, the clutch shooting would be better, the athleticism would be better, all these factors would be better if there were a high cutoff. But no, I'm not a high -dist or an anti -high -dist or a reverse high -dist.
31:42A tallest, whatever it is. A tallest, tallest, shortest. And you know, I am a huge mercy of all that and my favorite player growing up was Patrick Ewing who is seven, you know, seven feet tall So I do they do enrich the game Tall supporting bona fidees out front to center in case anyone's gonna try and say something mean about you Wasn't the so it's at the very end of the it's a very end of the book, but it seems related to this about childhood difficulty Oh, yeah So one of the things I was interested in was whether child difficulty predicts your tendency to choke. It's interesting theory. I've heard a lot, you know, Jimmy Butler is a classic, great clutch shooter.
32:28He's completely unaffected by pressure moments, just so good in the clutch. And Jimmy Butler had such a rough childhood. His father abandoned the family. His mother kicked him out of the house because she didn't like the look of him. Like it was just a horrible childhood. And there is a theory that Jimmy Butler is so good in clutch moments because he's so tough because he's been through so much. And compare his background to someone who grew up in the suburbs, a soccer mom and an MBA dad or something. They can't handle what Jimmy Butler can handle. So actually tested this in the data in a fun way in the book in a fun way, there isn't a measure, an objective measure of how difficult was your background.
33:17So one of the things we might get into about this book is I heavily relied on chat GPT to in the creationist book. And I thought chat GPT would do a great job of giving me an objective measure of how difficult someone's childhood was, because it has in its data set all this information about all the NBA players, what they went through in childhood. But so I asked Chatsubiti to rank the background of NBA players and it gave such sensible answers. You know, Jimmy Butler was ranked a nine. Kawaii Leonard grew up in a tough neighborhood in Compton was ranked similarly a nine. A Luhal dang ranked very high because he grew up in a civil war in Sudan.
33:57Like all these different measures that would be hard to objectively, you know, rank. Chatsubiti gives a very sensible ranking and then some players Dwight Howard, a state, his dad was a state trooper. He ranks very low. The sons of NBA players rank very low. Steve Nash, suburban family in Canada ranks very low in difficulty of upbringing. So I had this great measure of difficulty of upbringing and then I tested, does this predict one's tendency to choke and it doesn't. It does not. Don't down me at all. So it was a little bit of a let down because it would have been a cool theory if you saw it in the data.
34:32The other thing is it made me realize how dangerous it is to use chat GPT for research. Because if I really wanted to cheat, I could have just kept on asking chat GPT to give me a new ranking until I had a ranking that did predict choking. So there is a definitely not chat GPT as amazing as it is as a code objective of code of information does allow for a great deal of cherry picking if you don't feel like you do on it. It's a fuckery, can it cut? It does, yeah. Warren Buffett and Paul Millsap. What did they have in common? Yeah, so one of my chapters called what do Warren Buffett and Paul Millsap have in common Paul Millsap's great NBA player, multi -time All -Star and Warren Buffett as everyone knows one of the greatest investors of all time.
35:23What they have in common, well besides being great at their craft, was they both turned down the opportunity to go to an elite college, to go to a college that was less elite, but they felt more comfortable in. So Warren Buffett started his collegiate career at Warden, one of the great business schools in the world. And you think someone who dreamed of being a businessman since he was the age of five with, you know, relish the opportunity to go to Wardin to learn from the greatest business professors to have all the great business peers. And Buffett left Wardin and went to University of Nebraska because he wanted to be closer to his family.
36:10And he thought the libraries were just as good anyway. And Paul Millsap was a top ranked recruit got offers from Arizona, Louisville, LSU, but he decides to go to Louisiana Tech because he felt comfortable there was close to his family. And the chapter basically looks at the data on whether it matter is whether you go to a good college. So it doesn't matter. Both for a career, the great colleges that there are some colleges in which people who go to them have way higher earnings. So Harvard, Stanford, Warden, you know, is it a big advantage? Does it cause you to do better to go to one of these schools?
36:57And then in basketball, there are certain universities, there are different universities, but North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, UCLA, where players who go there are way more likely to become NBA players. So is it really important to go to one of these colleges? And I think the the evidence is my really evidence on both the real world and the NBA is that going to one of these elite colleges gives you an early edge. So if you go to Harvard undergrad, Stanford undergrad, another Ivy League undergrad, you're more likely to get into an elite graduate school, more likely to get that first job at McKinsey or a prestigious firm, a Google.
37:42And in basketball, if you go to Duke, if you go to North Carolina, if you go to Kentucky, you're more likely to be drafted. But if you look at the long -term outcome, how good you are as an NBA player eventually, how much you earn over your career, they don't seem to do that much. Eventually things kind of even out. And so they kind of trick people early on. They give a shine to you. If you have that gold -plated resume that you went to this elite school. You know, you can trick the world early in your career, but eventually everything's gonna even out. And that kind of happened to both Buffett and Millsap where Warren Buffett got rejected from Harvard Business School, because probably because they're looking at this guy from Nebraska and like, you know, well, we don't want someone from Nebraska, we can get someone from Wardin or one of these other elite schools.
38:29But I think it's pretty clear in the long run, he wasn't hurt by his Nebraska education, you know, became one of the wealthiest men in human history. And similarly Paul Millsap fell to the second rounds perhaps because teams are like, well, we don't trust a guy from Louisiana Tech. But in the long run, he became, you know, a great NBA player and all star NBA player. So it's interesting that the real world and the NBA seem to colleges seem to serve a similar function. They give you that early shine, but then they don't seem to do much beyond that. How important is going to college at all? Well, one thing that's very interesting in the data is historically NBA players who didn't go to college, who went straight out of high school massively overperformed their draft spot.
39:20It was a great bet. Now you have to go to college for a year so you can't take advantage of this inefficiency see anymore, but for many years it was an extraordinary idea to draft a player straight out of high school. So Colby Bryan, Kevin Garnett, Rashard Lewis, numerous players, Amari Stodemire, just massively outperformed their draft spot. I think one of the reasons for this, my hypothesis, you know, there are many hypotheses for these, but my hypothesis is if you skipped college and go went straight to the draft, it was such a bold move. It was saying something about yourself and you do yourself so well and your capabilities that you do something about yourself that the rest of the world missed, that is a huge advantage in being a basketball player.
40:15And I think I compare that to the great entrepreneurs. If you look at the very greatest entrepreneurs, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, what many of them have in common, they dropped out of school very quickly. And I think if you looked at these great entrepreneurs on paper, if you looked at Zuckerberg and Gates, you'd say, okay, they went to a good school, they maybe had high test scores, they were interested in computers, but so are lots of people. But the fact that they dropped out of school to follow their entrepreneurial spirit, I think was another clue that they had something else about themselves that was so remarkable, that the another person who had a similar background wanted to stay in school didn't have.
40:55And I think the same among NBA players, that Colby Bryant knew something about himself, a mere Johnson, Rashard Lewis, they all knew something about himself, themselves in making that decision to go straight to the NBA, that the rest of the world didn't know. And there was just extraordinary inefficiency where straight out of high school players massively over -perform their drafts spot. But yeah, it's so interesting, the, I guess, kind of selection effect of what's going on here, like how much of this is just, there's a smaller pool that we're moving from, or somebody has a particular outlier, which is, it's a commonality between all of these different people, right?
41:35There's a common thread that goes between them all, and yeah, just ridiculous self -belief, I suppose, probably correlates with the turn of others. because honestly, self -belief might correlate with VO2 max. I would totally be open to hearing that, yeah, yeah, yeah, zone two threshold and lactate management ability are strongly correlated with self -belief. Sure. I totally believe it. I think one of the frustrating things is of writing a book about NBA basketball when you're an NBA basketball fan, as I am an enormous NBA basketball fan, as I am. is it's almost impossible for the book to be finished?
42:16Because there are a hundred more questions I wanna look at based on these findings like that. That would be fascinating to look at. I don't know if there's a way to measure it, but I'd love to see to look at that and to really understand why hand size has been undervalued and why high school players have overperformed at all these questions. They're just like, you answer one question. And if you're a fan of the game, you have 10 more questions. and you want to answer based on that question. So I had to remind myself many times in the process of writing this book that perfect is the enemy of the good and that I had to finish the project at some point.
42:56You mentioned there about the NBA draft and coming from a anglicized, colonial, British imperialist background, the idea of a draft for us, we don't have it in rugby, we don't have it in cricket, it. We don't have it in football. And yet it's so common in American sports, you know, what how effective is it? Is it good? Is it a good idea for basketball at least? I mean, I think it evens a playing field for sure. You know, there are some sports where the best teams are just the richest teams. You know, the, you know, the whatever team can and spend the most money on the best players is going to be the best team.
43:42It's going to be the best team. That's not really true in basketball. San Antonio was a great team for many decades, even though they're in one of the smallest markets. I'm a huge nicks fan. We're in the biggest market. We should be able to spend the most on players. We have the biggest TV deal. We're finally good again this year. but we were terrible for so long. And I think the draft does serve as an equalizer, where if you do get that number one pick, and you are able to draft a Tim Duncan, or you are going to potentially have a great team for 10, 15 years. So it definitely does serve the purpose of equalizing things, I would say.
44:32And it also is fun to try to, you know, predict who's going to be a good player. You know, the NBA is one of the best leagues at predicting who's going to be a great player. You know, if you look at the top 10 NBA players of all time, 60 % of them, I think were number one picks. Number one overall. So it's very predictive then. It's very predictive. It's not true in baseball. It's not true in football. all the numbers are much lower in those sports. Now, of course, there are outliers. So, Nicola Jokic on Denver was the second round pick and he's, you know, one of the best, if not the best NBA player.
45:14So there are exceptions, but, you know, and there are these inefficiencies as I discussed about in the book, you know, hand sizes and properly taken to account. And, you know, another one I talk about is standing leap versus vertical leap, which is very interesting. If you look at when NBA players are participating in the combine where they're measured on all these traits, how tall they are, they're wingspan, they're hand width, they have to, the teams want to see how high they can jump, and they give them two tests. The first one is a standing leap. You stand in place and just, you know, without any head start, see how high you can jump.
45:56And then the second one is a vertically you get a running head start. It's not a full on, you know, the whole court running head start, but you get some head start and then see how I you can jump. And of course, with a running head start, everybody can jump higher. And one thing that's very interesting is if you see what predicts block shots or rebounds among basketball players, it's not the vertical leap, the running head start leap. It's the standing leap. Because a lot of basketball, you don't get a running head start. You're boxing out of player. Yeah, you're boxing out a player and the ball just comes and you jump or a guy's going through the lane and you just maybe get half a step and and leap.
46:33So if you actually look at the draft, there's an inefficiency where players who have a great standing leap relative to their vertical leap are undervalued and the players who have a great vertical leap relative to a standing leap are overvalued. And I think the reason for that is it's such a sexy, shiny trait that running head start leap. If you can, you know, the people there, if you can run the length of the corner, you know, leap from the free throw line and dunk the ball, like that is so such an impressive athletic feat that I think people are blinded are just like, oh my god, this person has to be amazing at basketball.
47:08It's much sexier than someone who can leap not as high, but higher relative to what you'd expect without a running head start. So that's an inefficiency in the draft. but there needs to be a coolness modifier for the exercises. Yeah, I, you know, again, once you write a book like this, just your minds and your sports fan, I'm just a fan of all sports. My mind just starts racing. Yeah, does this play out in other sports? I, you know, our cool traits, uh, you know, overvalued in both in both sports. My guess is probably that I absolutely bet that, um, pitch speed, like average pitch speed in baseball is something that is very, very highly prioritized.
47:55You know, if you're regularly able to hit three figures throughout multiple innings, it's just the whole crowd. When they see that 1, 0, 0, dot, 0, 0, like, oh, like the whole crowd makes noise, right? So it's like, but is that is that the best? I mean, there's, you know, I believe that. it and yeah, I believe it. And you know, in football, our football, American football, you know, the speed of a player relative, let's say a wide receiver relative to running good routes. You know, a player just has an incredible 40 yard dash, you know, 425, 430. You know, it's so impressive, so exciting. I think they tend to be drafted maybe higher than they should be relative to someone who runs a 4 -5 or 4 -5, but really precise on those routes.
48:49It's not that exciting, but it is more important. You could probably go through lots of sports where the sexy traits are overvalued. There's a really cool YouTube video by Total Running Productions about Sue Bingchan. He is the 14th fastest sprinter in the world, but he's the only non -black sprinter in the top quite a lot, but he's the only Asian sprinter in the top 200 or something. And the guys, 5 '8", I think, 5 '8 or 5 '9", and when he ran at the Tokyo 21 semi -finals, his 100 meter time, which I think came in at 9 .8, 9 .8 1 or something, but he broke the world record for the 40 meter and the 60 meter in the 100 meter.
49:45So this guy is like and it's the video that I'm talking about. I'll send it to you once we're done. It's so good, dude. And you see this dude who can't get below 10 seconds. He can't get below 10 seconds. He's just is this the theoretical limit for Asian sprinters and he changes his starting foot and rebuilds his running rhythm from the ground up, you know, when he's been doing it for two decades or something. And it's just awesome. He's like my favorite. He's one of my favorite track and field guys now. It's short Chinese dude who's just the moat. The acceleration of him is so insane. It's crazy.
50:25I think one of the things you see in all sports are these players that just are so good at making themselves better throughout their career. And you know, you talk about wide receivers, Jerry Rice, the greatest wide receiver of all time. He didn't have the greatest natural gifts. You know, he wasn't the fastest. He's not the tallest. But he just would improve every year and just so such dedication to his craft, you know, tiny improvement, such a focus on, you know, the route he was running. And, you know, if you think of basketball, Kawaii Leonard, I think fits that profile as well. Maybe not the most naturally gifted player, but just year after year, improving, paying attention to every subtle little thing, you know, the how to rebound better, play the angles off the rim better.
51:19and I think it is fun to watch these players. Even in many ways, more fun than watching the naturally gifted, the most naturally gifted players who maybe don't have to put in quite the effort and they can frustrate you. Shaquille O 'Neal, he was interviewed and they said, Phil Jackson, your coach said that if you just practiced hard, You could have been MVP 10 years straight. And you think Shaquille and Yo would be outraged at this statement. You know, how could someone say that? And he basically admitted that this was true. He's like, yeah, I didn't love practicing. You know, I liked my cheeseburgers in the off season.
52:07And but he was just so gifted. You combine that height with that, you know, that footspeed and that athleticism. It just didn't matter, but you know, a shack is a little frustrating, you know, if I were a Lakers fan, I'd be so frustrated like, why can't you just learn how to shoot free throws for God? Like, uh, whereas you know, some of these players the the real craftsman who Just constantly are improving and upping their game year after year working yet It can be really really fun to watch. What have you come to believe or what are the insights about the role of hard work in achieving goals?
52:46I think it depends so much on the pursuit. Everything that isn't basketball or volleyball. Yeah, I mean, if you're five, nine, and you have small hands and you're slow and you can't jump, like, you got no chance. You can work as hard as you want. It's not going to help. I would say basketball because it's so dependent on so many traits that are so genetic such as high I think hard work it moves the needle a little bit and I think you know they're you know Michael there's a devastating you know Michael Jordan is considered the greatest of all time and Shaq is in Probably in large part because Michael Jordan outworked Shaq and you know if Shaq had outworked Michael I think Shaq would be the player that, you know, his number one on everyone's mind as the quintessential basketball player.
53:42But so I think hard work can take you, you know, from Shaq to MJ, but it's not going to take you from Seth to Shaq. Or, you know, it's not that there's, there's, you're moving the needle a little bit, but not that much in basketball. But there's other pursuits where hard work maybe matters more And I always suggest if you're not genetically gifted, there are some sports equestrian riding or skiing, there are certain sports where I think you really can improve your craft. You can move the needle a lot more through hard work than you can in a sport like basketball or sprinting or something. All right, so we kind of flooded around it.
54:25And some of the people who don't know or didn't listen to our previous episodes and realize that you're an ex -data scientist from Google and then you've written all of these phenomenal books which I love, why you know so much about basketball. Like, who were you to write this book? And how do you happen to have this like encyclopedic X -ray vision to be able to see what's going on inside of the world of basketball? Uh, so, well, first of all, I'm an enormous basketball fan. I have been since I was a little boy. I don't think I could have written a book like this of who becomes the best figure skater in the world or who becomes the best opera singer because I definitely was relying pretty heavily on knowledge I have from three decades as a passionate fandom of basketball.
55:25But this book, I used a new tool that I have become obsessed with. It was initially called Code Interpreter. It's now called Data Analysis. It's from ChatGPT. And it's basically a way to do data analysis that is just completely revolutionized my workstream. Like it's, I say it's the most amazing product I've ever seen. I always need to offer the caveat. I have zero affiliation with open AI. I feel like when I say this, I sound like I'm going to be a little bit more than I do. I'm a spokesman for their, you know, pitchman for their product. I'm not associated with OpenAI at all, but it basically, a data analysis, a code, what was originally called code interpreter, it writes all your data analysis, your data science code for you and runs it.
56:13And it is just such a game changer that things that used to take me four months, now literally take me four hours or sometimes less. It's just so wild, scraping data sets, that's cleaning data sets, merging data sets, running regressions, making charts, it is the most insane product I've ever seen. And so this book was just like written in like an explosion of just data analysis in like a shockingly short time of just all day, running code interpreter analysis of basketball. And I was having the time of my life and just like just so quickly producing these charts, producing these analyses, I think this book would have been a project of many, many years without Code Interpreter and with Code Interpreter was a project that took basically 30 days, which initially I was really proud of, but now people are like, well, do I want to read a book that only took you 30 days?
57:16But it'll really, there's a really famous lecture, I guess this guy, it's a clip from a what looks like a marketing class or a sales class perhaps or something and he says how much would you pay me if you wanted me to design your new logo and the guy says I pay you $1 ,000 he goes okay and how much would you pay me if I was able to design it in 30 minutes he said what I pay you you know like $500 he's like hang in a second so you're getting the service more quickly but you want to pay less because you think that the amount of time is indicative of the amount of effort which is indicative of the amount of quality.
57:56Yeah, it was interesting. So initially the first version of who makes the NBA, I, one of the marketing hooks. I'm like, look, I wrote this book in 30 days and I also show at the end. I, this is how I did it. This is how I used a chat GPT to do all the analysis, not to do the writing. The writing I did all myself, but to do the analysis, ought to make the art, all the art is AI generated from mid -journey or Dolly. You know, here's what I learned along the way in, in writing this book. And a few people were like, exactly like this guy said, like, well, we don't, I don't want to read a book in your 30 day vanity project.
58:29So now I've toned that down. I've said more that, you know, I, I also show you how to use AI. I'm, I'm deemphasizing the actual time that I use. But I think that's just unfair to just how revolutionary chat GPT is that prior to the existence of code interpreter, if I said, I wrote a book on an NBA basketball in 30 days. I think people would correctly say, this is a piece of crap and a Seth Vanity project, and I don't want anything to do with this. But I think because of code interpreter, because of mid -Journey, because of Dolly, because of chat GPT, you can write a book in 30 days that is a real treatise on basketball with new insights on the game.
59:11You know, many answers to previously unanswered questions. I think people don't realize just how revolutionary AI is for the creative process that the rules of how long something should take, you know, over the last year have completely changed. Hmm. It's very interesting. It's very interesting to think that you've got this like arbitrary link between time spent and quality. It would be like if you said, here's some butter, but I churned it myself like with my feet or something. Oh, I very much appreciate the fact that you went through all of that effort to give me this butter. You're okay. And then that book that you see in front of you, it was actually written by hand.
1:00:00It's a handwritten book. And then all of the pages are kind of stitched and sewn together. But you know, like technological progress, people are very typically, there's a lot of inertia to people being dragged along. And yeah, interesting man, very, very interesting. I suppose What we're seeing here is just like leverage at such an insane level of magnitude that your ability to manipulate chat GPT and data analyzer and to be able to spit out what you needed and then to be able to put it together and then to be able to use chat GPT to be able to proofread the words so that there wasn't any errors in it.
1:00:38Like that is it's taking a skill set but leveraging it so much way more than even something like Wikipedia or a word processor could do. So yeah, people are just not not ready for this level of exponential. Dude, I appreciate you. I think you've smashed it with the book. I'm really impressed. You say at the beginning, you make a joke that you're going to try and write 100 bucks. That is a joke, right? You're not going to try and do 100 bucks. I don't know. I might I'll see. I'm trying to work on the monetization of this book. Like I'm Yeah, exactly how to, if I get the monetization right, because I also self published this book.
1:01:17Yeah. It's like all the publishers are just like, we don't know what to do with your weird 30 day projects. Like that's not publishers move very, very slowly. So no publisher would really touch this. So I'm kind of trying to figure out the bottom. If I got the monetization right, I would just keep doing it because the other thing is, this was the best month of my life, far nine. It was so fun. In part, because I was writing about the NBA, I'm a huge basketball fan. Of course, that's going to be fun for someone like me. But in part, because one thing I found is AI just does so many of the things I freaking hate doing.
1:01:59So I'm a data scientist, a data analyst. A lot of data science data analysis is not particularly fun. For me, writing code, debugging code, looking up code, figuring out exactly how to add something to a chart in this way, it's just mind -dumbing a lot of it. In this project, that was all gone. All I did was come up with ideas and I'm just like, here, data analysts do it for me. It was just awesome. It was so fun. And so it's just like, it was the most fun month I've had in my life. So, you know, if I can get the monetization right on the book on this, then I'm just, yeah, I'm going. Bring those together.
1:02:46No, I brought a decade of the most fun months of your life back to back to back. Yeah, no, I said I have a baseball book out by opening day. Then I'd have an Olympics book for the, you know, by the summer. Then I have an NFL book for, uh, for the, it started that season. I just keep on going. and it would just be the most fun, yeah, the most fun months of my life. So, hell yeah. Seth, I appreciate you. I look forward to seeing what you do next. I'll bring you back on. Let's have this chat one more time. Chris, thanks so much. I mean, congrats on the success of this podcast. It's been, you, I remember when you first reached out to me to talk about my first book, Everybody Lies.
1:03:22And I think I looked you up and you're like a two -bit podcaster. I'm like, but I'm like, yeah, I seems like a nice guy. I'll do this little podcast and to see you going to the stratosphere has been a true joy and very well -deserved because you have worked really hard for it. Thank you, man. I really appreciate that. I really, really do. Until next time, mate, I'll catch you later on. Thanks, Cyprus.
From the publisher
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a data scientist, economist and author.
Basketball is one of the most popular sports on the planet. Seth has used advanced AI to statistically analyse everything about the players, their backgrounds, hand-span, height, first names and more to uncover some of the wildest trends in the game.
Expect to learn what percentage of American men over 7 feet tall are in the NBA, why there is a huge outlier of the most common name of all NBA players, who the best height-adjusted player of all time is, just how important genetics are in basketball, whether the Draft is effective and much more...
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