#976 - Ray Dalio - The Changing World Order: How Countries Go Broke

34:09Okay, there are these different worlds going on. Anyway, I'm rambling too much, but I'm just saying that's what's going on, right? This disparity, this tension between those two groups leads to desire for populism. Is that the mechanism that happens? Of course. And I mean, first of all, there's a tragedy, productivity, like everything works on productivity. If you want income, you're not gonna get anywhere by just giving away money. You have to make people productive. So being productive and having income and having a decent life is very important to the well -being of the society. I know if I was to grow up in that area, if I had to raise my kids and sell them to that schools, I'd be a revolutionary.

35:10With the system. I'd say that I doubt that you or anyone on this call practically would say I would put my kids in that environment and those school systems. I think it feels like this is the same. I'm not saying there's an easy way to solve this problem, but you never, there's two worlds and that's, you know, that's, that's, but that's the bottom of the population, but there's a, it's like a disease that when And that reliably results in the same kind of desires culturally, especially politically that then influences the sort of people that are elected, the sort of policies that are seductive and attractive to people.

36:01Of course. I mean, you look around you and see what you see. What is going on with the mayor race in New York City?

36:11Yeah. Yeah. It makes complete sense. What's interesting about that one is the people that are in support. It's very much sort of a luxury belief situation where a lot of it's already aspirational for somebody in a position of high privilege to support someone that largely their policies aren't impacting them. the sort of campaigning for somebody that is trying to uplift the underclass and the lower class that is struggling, but it seems to be a very cool sort of charitable philanthropic position to take. If you're somebody that is of means, even if this isn't someone that's necessarily fighting for you.

36:57Well, I'm sure each person has their explanation, and I think they should explain for themselves. I'm just saying, yeah, no, no, no, no, shit, it happens, right? I mean, you asked me the question, does it happen? Does it connect it to economics? Does it connect it to conditions? Okay, look around you. Does it happen? Yes, they're connected. In other news, you might have heard me say that hold luggage is a sionp meant to keep you poor and late. And while that's true, it turns out that when a brand puts hundreds of hours into design, and organization and durability, suddenly checking a bag doesn't feel quite so much like a trap, it actually feels like an upgrade, which is what nomatics done with their new method check -in luggage.

37:39It's been designed from the wheels up to be lighter, stronger, and hold more. It's got best -in -class materials, 360 -degree silent glide wheels, patent -pending micro -welding technology, and integrated TSA locks. Basically, you can pack for between one and two weeks of It's got a full perimeter expansion for even more space and it's lighter so no more panic attacks every time that you wear your bag and Their new carry on can hold up to 20 % more than other carry -ons Which means you can fit nearly a week's worth of clothing without checking a bag and they'll last you a lifetime with a lifetime Guarantee plus there's a 30 -day money back guarantee So you can buy your new luggage try it out for a month if you don't like it They'll give you your money back right now you get a 20 % discount see everything I use and recommend by going to the link in the description below are heading to nomatic .com slash modern wisdom.

38:28That's nomatic .com slash modern wisdom. The internal political force, why are our policies this way where it is so to do with polarity, it's so to do with this sort of push and pull that seems to go in either direction? Well, it's the same as in the 1930s, particularly in Europe, but to some extent in the United States.

39:00It's a Plato in his book The Republic, a couple of thousand years ago, more than that, wrote about it. In democracies, people vote for their interest. And so what happens is the majority of people want to say, give me more, politicians want to give them more. they're willing to get in debt to do these things. Discipline is not, you know, the thing, okay, we're going to be disciplined. And that's why Plato said in the cycle for democracy, or you saw it in the 1930s, or you're seeing it now, is you want somebody to get control of this thing and make it work well. And then there's two visions as to who that somebody is, okay?

39:57And so, So make the trains run on time. In Italy, which is fascist. And so make the trains run on time. Make things work. And then each has a different vision of what that is. And that's why you had fascism and communism in the 30s. One is, OK, I need a strong leader to make a command economy to get everybody to have discipline and do it in a sort of pro business, pro capitalist way, or I needed to redistribute the opportunities and so on and do it in a communist way, and therefore you had the fights. Yeah, I'm surprised, like, shouldn't all this be obvious? I mean, am I saying anything? I don't know why you're having me on the interview and why everybody doesn't.

41:00Am I saying something we can't see? You know what? Why we don't see it? Because we're only looking at this much. You turn on the news and there's today's news. And there's not a seeing the cycle. Okay, it's like the frog in the boiling water idea, you know, you know, take a frog, you throw them boiling, you run any jumps out, put them into a pot and have it slowly increasing, you know, sit there and boil to death. It's just one increment at a time that is taking place and here we are. Okay, but draw the lines in that book, the changing world order that I did. I go have 500 years of history. you can see the lines, education levels, production, you could, all these things, you can see them.

41:54They're in the lines, look at them. Am I saying anything that should be controversial? It's there. You're right, without the benefit of perspective, it's very difficult to work out what's going on in a broader context. And if you're only ever looking at a narrow window, you don't get to detect patterns. These patterns are, by design, they need big windows for you to be able to get through. That's right. That is the main reason. That what happens is these cycles take about a lifetime. So these things only come across once in a lifetime. So it's like new. That's the lesson I learned when I was clerking on the floor of the exchange that I had not heard on to stand what was happening.

42:36I needed to understand what happened in 1933. OK. So anyway, for those who are interested, the Changing World Order is explained in my book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, or you don't even have to buy the book, you can go online for a free video because I'm not trying to sell books, I'm trying to pass along some knowledge, and you can see that video, in fact I give a four minute clip from it, or there's about a 30, 35 minute more complete automatic video free. You go on, take a look at it, see what you see, and then measure up what's happening against what that pattern is.

43:19Because it's like a disease that goes through stages. And if you understand what the stages are, you can look at that and say, is it tracking that? Do you think we're post -democracy yet? Can anyone really trust the system? Is that breakdowns in belief in politics overall is that part of the cycle? I think, I think, I should say, I believe strongly that we are on the brink of that, okay? That it could go either way. But that there's more risk. Imagine the next economic downturn. Are we not going to have any more economic downturns? I mean, on average, they've lasted six and a half years, they vary maybe by four years, so I can't tell you about, you're probably gonna have a downturn.

44:14When you have a downturn, you're gonna have people more at each other's throats. I mean, I think they're gonna be more conflict and people gonna get heated up about it. And there certainly, we're losing the middle. Okay, we're losing the middle and media, We're losing the middle in you know everybody's on a campaign and Compromise how does compromise go and I'm in Washington I'm by the way my more recent book Which explains how the death cycle works which I gave you in a nutshell before But anyway my boss Reese move I've been drawn down to Washington and I meet with top levels of both sides of the parties And they both agree on both sides, all agrees on the mechanics.

45:08Okay, is this a mechanics? Is it work? Is that picture there? Everybody agrees. I mean, literally almost everybody agrees with that. Both sides. And I say, well, if I was in your shoes, here's what I would do. And I could explain what I would do. It doesn't get rid of the debt, but what you have to do is you have to take a little bit from everything. You have to take a little bit from taxes. You have to take a little bit from spending. It isn't easy, but you can reduce the budget deficit from 7 % of GDP to about 3 % of GDP. And if you do that with everybody giving something a little bit, you can achieve that.

46:00And if you do that, then the slide -up supply demand for bonds improves. And interest rates come down and that helps. But if you don't do it now, you're going to have the next big increase in debt. And, you know, when you get that debt compounding on itself, you know, you're beyond hope. And that's where we are. And then I say, so I called that process the 3 % three -part solution. And I would just say, take that pledge. And it's like being on a boat headed to rocks. And the politicians on the boat headed to rocks know that they're going to go to the rocks. but they're arguing about how to turn.

46:50And I say, I don't care even how you turn. Just everybody taken equally from everything. I don't care, but you got to turn. But they argue, am I going to go left or am I going to go right and I don't turn? And I ask them, well, why don't you take the three? You agree, we're going to go ahead to the rocks. We got this problem. and the answer is very interesting. The answer is, well, I can't do that because you have to understand I have to take one of two pledges if not both politically and for my party. And that is, I promise you that I will not raise your taxes and or I promise you that I will not cut your benefits.

47:43Okay? If you promise that you're not going to raise your taxes and you promise you're not going to raise your benefit, anything on the benefits. Okay. That means a debt of, you know, seven minus five is two plus the other, but you got to sell it, okay, we know where we're going. So politics.

48:08Okay, I have at least a good understanding of how the current economic situation can impact internal politics. We've got polarity. People feel like they can't give an inch. That's seen as a lack of conviction by their own side. It's seen as a lack of fealty by the other side. They're an unreliable ally. You have this sort of us and them situation that often comes out of capitalism, good system, lots of problems. That kind of makes sense. When it comes to the external geopolitical order, I do not understand what the fundamentals of how that system works. That to me, is it the same or are they different?

48:51And order means what is a system of decision making? So a global geopolitical world order is how to countries deal with each other. And so the way it works is when you have a war, the winners determine how the system's going to work. So in 1945 we had a war. The US came out of it as the dominant power. I can explain all the reasons why, but it had half of the world's gold. It has, excuse me, 80 % of the world's gold. It has had the world's GDP. It had a dominant military power and so on. and it created the order, the post -World War II order or system, in which it replicated to some extent an attempt to have what the American system is of, let's call it, they have the United Nations, they get everybody together, it's like a Congress or a House, and then they have these multi -national or multilateral organizations like the IMF, like the world bank, like the World Health Organization, like the World Trade Organization and so on, that was envisioned that those countries would work it out in a way like that.

50:26That doesn't work. Power matters. Nobody's going to the World Trade Organization and saying these trade deals and now you make a judgment and I'm going to abide by that judgment or nobody's going to the UN to say that and so on. And now you have shifts in relative power. It was not many years ago that the United States could say almost to almost any country I would like you to do this and everybody got the message because they were afraid not to. But then you have China rising as a comparable power. Okay, you have other countries, India, other countries rising. You know, it happened in my lifetime, so I know the difference.

51:18I remember when going to Asia, I mean, there was no place, it was backward. I remember when Europe was backward by comparison. I remember when everybody was back, now you go to places and they're monitored and they're shiny and they're productive and they're competitive and so you see the charts in my book, you see these, you know, what is your per capita income, what is your living standard, it's lots of measure, what's your educational level, the educational level, the United States in common education measures, pieces scores and such is 34th out of the major developed countries, okay, and it used to be as a share of World GDP or whatever.

52:09There's now there's a competition, okay, and power matters. It's not like you go to the judge or the world court and you've solved it in the world court, okay. So that's how these cycles work and that's where we are in the cycle. This episode is brought to you by Element Summer hits different when you're actually hydrated. That tired, foggy, muscle crampy feeling, most people chalk up to heat or exhaustion. It might be electrolytes and plain water alone won't fix it Which is why element is such a game changer. It's a zero sugar. Electrolite drink mix with sodium potassium and magnesium in the exact ratio your body needs.

52:48no sugar, no food dies, no artificial junk, and this summer they've dropped something new, lemonade salt. It's like a lemon popsicle grew up, got its life together and started supporting your adrenal system and your hydration. And best of all, there's no questions asked reef and policy. So you can buy it, try it for as long as you want, and if you don't like it, they'll give you your money back and you don't even need to return the box. That's how confident they are that you'll love it. Plus, they offer free shipping in the US. Right now, you can get a free sample pack of all eight flavors with your first box by going to the link in the description below, are heading to drinklmnt .com slash modern wisdom.

53:21That's drinklmnt .com slash modern wisdom. Okay, so I'm interested in how China's ascendancy, what we're seeing at the moment, how that relates to sort of the first two orders at the moment. How much that is borne out, of that, how much that is influenced by the first two that we've seen. Because you mentioned it earlier on, it seems to be the primary geopolitical attention that we have at the moment globally between the US and China. Are there any comparable situations from history like this? And let me just explain it.

54:09We now have China as a roughly comparable power. And we had a dynamic, so I'll connect it to the first, the economic, and I'll connect it to the second, which is the political and okay, we So, connected to the first, China takes off and it becomes very competitive in the world because for various reasons they had communists, Mao dies in 1976 and they changed policies in 1978, and as a result, they go to policies that made them much more competitive in the world. And so they produce things inexpensively. Americans buy that with borrowed money. The Chinese think, oh, that's great. I'm selling stuff, and I'm accumulating my saving in the form of these bonds and the Americans think, okay, that's great.

55:24I'm buying this good expense of stuff. And I feel that that's good, but I'm also getting deeper in debt and they don't pay too much attention to that. And then also, you lose the middle class because we used to be manufacturing. In other words, the manufacturer of people worked on an assembly line, they have a house, two cars and a boat, and there was manufacturing in there and a combination of international competitiveness, particularly China, but also technology has wiped that out. We are not manufacturing. So we get deeper into debt, and then, and we lose the manufacturing, we produce our polarity.

56:13and we're coming closer to a war, a conflict, and therefore we cannot have dependencies. Okay, we can't have this dynamic of which we keep buying their stuff on borrowed money, because the others don't want to lend to us and you can't keep not producing because you're losing the middle class who's angry at you and wants to make changes. And also if you keep needing to buy the stuff from the Chinese or others out there and you get into a conflict, you may not get stuff that you need. So all of that has to come to an end. Has to at least be significantly reduced or just okay and that's where we are.

57:10So they're interdependent, right?

57:16What about the role of active nature? You know, I can't work out whether given how finely tuned our world is, active nature matter more or less now, because you'd think that we might be more robust because we've got air conditioning and buildings and technology to protect us. But on the flip side, we're so finely tuned that a single stuck ship in the Suez Canal can cause a global supply chain issue that reverberates for months and months and time after. So I'm trying to work out, yeah, how much do active nature matter now in the modern world?

57:54I don't claim to be an expert on that, but I will tell you what I think objective studies on do me.

58:07The estimated costs of either the damage and that future damage of climate. And I'm not sure how much this is cyclical and how much of this is manmade. I'm just read the studies, but anyway, you know, people argue about that. But anyway, whatever it is, it is going like this in terms of, let's say, the temperature level and the consequences in terms of damage. Estimated cost is about $8 trillion a year, either in one of three ways, or it's usually a mix of those, either in the cost of trying to prevent climate change. So you have to invest in it and do those things and that's expensive. Or preventing climate change, meaning maybe you build the sea walls or you have to adapt.

59:15It's called adaptation. maybe have to move because it becomes too tolerable, I don't know, or the damage itself, Los Angeles burning or whatever, is estimated something like a trillion a year in a world economy that's about a hundred trillion. So it's one way or another, it appears to be a very expensive thing that's certainly going to require adaptations. But I can't tell you it's going to get worse. The first four of these are going to get worse, probably. The debt situation, as we get deeper into debt, and these things happen, is probably going to get worse. I mean, you just did the projections.

1:00:12The internal water and diswater, particularly if there's more disruption, but anyway, it's not like we're going to probably quickly go back to harmony. I think if there was something we need, we need a strong middle. I can get into that in a minute, but I think you need a strong middle to bring to stop the fighting between it and to do the difficult things that need to be done in order to deal with our challenges. But anyway, the political is probably not good. The geopolitical is certainly risky and it is the case that the acts of nature probably we go to get worse. And they're related to each other.

1:01:07By the way, because I'm a practical guy, I don't approach it either as an optimist or a pessimist. I have to just be as accurate as I possibly can at the Beth Well. And then there's technology. technology is a two -year -old sort. It'll probably raise productivity a huge amount, but it can be used for wars as well as improvements, and it certainly is going to be disruptive to employment. And how are we going to deal with that? I mean, in other words, okay, you still have the question of how you divide the pie and, you know, it's probably going to be a lot of fighting over that question. What's your perspective on the impact that AI is going to have over the next few years?

1:02:10I think there's the creation of ABI and it's going to be amazing and it provides enormous enormous benefits. It's really unique. I think it's the best technology ever, different technologies, because it's thinking that applies to everything. So if you find better thinking applying to medicine and everything, building buildings, doing anything, it has that broad application and it's going to be a major.

1:02:52Now I don't think the actual applications to create the differences are going to happen as fast as they are, as the potential for them to happen is. In other words, I think the developments will happen, but the issue of using it well, incorporating it into our lives, incorporating it into the companies, and so on, so that it is producing its benefits, I think is going to be a lot slower than ideally it could be. And as I say, it could be used for wars. And also, it certainly will create great disruptions. I don't know that we'll be able to handle those disruptions how we do it. And I think it's very difficult to even know the implications and applications of the new technology.

1:03:58It's like when the digital age came and we have internet and computerization,

1:04:08now people will say, you have a higher suicide rate and mental illness for kids who are on phones. Now, I would have thought that that would have been a fantastic equalizer of education. You know, all around the world, you can be educated on this. And I can't tell you one way or another other than I'm not smart enough to tell the implications of these things. It's a great productivity tool. This is a great productivity tool. Okay, what has been its implications? Okay, it's many ways beneficial. Many ways people would say detrimental. I think the most important thing over time is how people deal with each other.

1:05:03Another words Can we solve our problems together? It's it's it's you know, it's karma.

1:05:17or you know, if you don't do it together, you're going to be at each other's throats and you won't solve the problems. He said figure, okay, how do we get to the common good of whatever it is? How do we commonly deal with the debt problem or any of these things? You know, how do we not fight? How do we solve problems well together? I think that's... So it's a human nature question. It's not a technology question. You said you're not sure how well we'll be able to handle the disruption of AI coming in. What does that mean? What does not handling the disruption of AI, what does doing that badly, or not handling it well?

1:06:08What does that mean? It will have implications for employment. It will radically enable, and just as it's doing now, radically enable and enrich many people. And it will replace many people. and it will be used for productivity and discovering of medical treatments and the like, and it will be used for wars.

1:06:47So it's certainly going to be very disruptive in beneficial and detrimental ways and just like all technologies over a period of time, but this one more so, you know, how it's used and how the implications of it are dealt with will be a paramount importance. Before we continue, if your workouts feel flat, your recovery slow or you've just been feeling off, it might not be a training plan or your diet, it might be something a bit more boring, like zinc. And while supplements like Toncatale can help zinc quietly plays a huge role in testosterone production. Strength, recovery, and energy, and most people are chronically low on it, which is why I'm such a huge fan of Mementus' zinc.

1:07:42It supports testosterone, boost vitality, and helps keep everything running, like it should. Best of all, it's NSF certified for sport, which means it's been independently tested and approved for purity, safety and zero shading ingredients. So even Olympic athletes can use it and you too. And if you're still unsure, Mementus offers a 30 -day money -back guarantee. So you can buy it and try it for 29 days. If you don't love it, they'll just give you your money back. Plus, they ship internationally. Right now, you can get 35 % of your first subscription and that 30 -day money -back guarantee by going to To the link in the description below, are heading to livemomentus .com slash modern wisdom using the code modern wisdom, a checkout.

1:08:18That's L -I -V -E -M -O -M -E -N -T -O -U -S .com slash modern wisdom and modern wisdom, a checkout. I'm interested in the sort of haves and have not dynamic the UI identified earlier on, how that is played into economically, it influences what happens in terms of internal politics, increases polarization, increases tension, increases the desire of sort of populism. I have to assume that if AI comes in, that is, you already mentioned, as whatever 1 % of the population are working at a bunch of companies and of that 1%, some will be in companies that are in AI that are maybe going to have an even more vertical hockey stick over the next decade or so.

1:09:05So surely that's just going to allow gains to accrue to an even smaller group of people. It's going to displace more people from work. I think maybe Microsoft just released a huge 40 page white paper looking at the jobs that are most likely to be displaced and the ones that are least likely to be displaced. And it's actually quite an interesting cohort when you look at it, a lot of very working like lumbering, lumberjacks, logging, boat captains, none of those. They were the lowest down on the list. Middle management, sports broadcasters, historians, analysts, middle -level legal sort of boards, all that sort of logistics drivers.

1:09:57So it really just sort of crossed the spectrum. It doesn't seem like anybody's particularly safe. It doesn't look like anyone at any area is going to be protected from this. So you're just interested in what you see in terms of this increasing polarity, haves, have -nots, and what that's going to mean for human nature and human psychology and levels of well -being.

1:10:25By studying history and studying human nature, I really do. I'll touch on that in a minute.

1:10:40I think that it's what I've been saying in terms of this conflict and how you work it out. And then there's also, I think people have some need to be productive and I think the society needs for people to be productive. Maybe it's theoretically possible that you can just receive your check, but you still have to have somebody determining, do you get a check? And what do you do with it? You mean like a UBI type? No, I know. All I know is that it's going to be very disruptive. of, and the question is, how are we going to deal with it? Will we deal with it wisely in a way that most people agree and they'll get angry over?

1:11:34And you know, so that's kind of all I know, you know? What's your prediction? How wisely do you think we're going to navigate this? Sorry. How wisely do you think we're going to navigate this? What's your position? I don't think we're going to navigate it wisely. I think we have a human nature problem. That's why I say I believe I believe in whether we call it karma or spirituality or the nature of can we make the collective good or does the individual fighting for self -interest get such that the collective is bad because everybody's fighting for self -interest and they don't smartly work things out.

1:12:33You know, what goes around comes around, do on to others as you would have them do onto yourself, throughout history, peace, work it out, has ebbed and flowed. Mostly you get it, you get peace in that during prosperous times. But when you get a lack of prosperity or whatever, you have the sort of horrendous brutality and wars that we see in varying places now. What's more dangerous, these cycles or kinetic wars themselves? out. I'm not sure. I think the cycles, the cycles are just a description of cause -effect relationships and the actions in their worst part, which is, you know, that part of the cycle where you're getting rid of the debts and you're fighting for who has power and all of that.

1:13:55And then you get here in 1945, you've had the war, you got rid of the debts, now you have a new power and then you begin it again. That is the way it works. And then those periods are very dangerous, of course. Does our current, yes. Which is worse, one is the, is a description of the process, the other is a description of the bad part of the cycle. Understood. Do you think that our current stage in the cycle explains many, most all of the conflicts that we're seeing at the moment? By and large, it is what's going on. Does it explain everything in all ways exactly? No. And I think there's one of the big things.

1:14:58It's almost people trying to pay a lot of attention to the, what's happening over the short term and paying too much attention to exactly that they miss the bigger picture. So nothing happens exactly and do pay attention to the bigger cycle because the bigger cycle matters and you might overlook the bigger cycle because you're looking at that small thing and you're asking, does it happen exactly? Like, what do you think most people miss about the mechanics of how countries fall apart? Is it slow decay? Is it sudden shock? I think they just aren't, they just are not reading the story. They don't, they haven't experienced it.

1:15:51They don't study it. They don't see the patterns.

1:15:57It's like a person growing from a kid to get older, get married, they go through their life cycle, get older and die. And they don't pay any attention to the life cycle. And they don't pay any attention to the fact that, hey, this has happened over and over and over again. How does that go? Like, you know, okay, do you know where you are in your life cycle? Do you know? Do you know what's coming? Okay, do you know where you are in your life cycle? Are you putting it or are you just paying attention? You get up you deal with your sit your job your kids your your circumstances and so on But you haven't stepped back and say okay, I'm here in my life cycle and I'm okay But that life cycles happened over and over okay.

1:16:45I'm 76 years old. I know where I am in my life cycle Okay, I'm do you know you almost can No, almost to the detail. Okay, your hair isn't gray yet. Okay, okay, you maybe haven't gotten reading glasses yet. Okay, there are markers. Do you pay attention to that? Okay, and your life cycle and the next generation and so on. Most people don't pay too much attention. Do you know how the life cycle goes? Do you know that, you know, it's a fact in terms of life cycle, happiness tracks the life cycle. When you're in school, one of the happiest periods is you get out of school, you're immediately out of school, and you have your friends and you're having a great time and you have great aspirations and everything's great.

1:17:44So it's plotted. How many people asked? What is your happiness level? and they find that that's a high point. The worst part of the life cycle is kind of like 45 to 55. Okay? Because as work life balance, you're trying to juggle things. Maybe the relationship that you thought was going to be wonderful with your spouse isn't is wonderful, the seven year age or something, then you get into also, it's not as easy as you expected to be on top of the world and so on and then you, that's proven. I mean, that's survey, it's result. Then you go up and then you get past that. And the happiest point of the life interestingly is like 55 to 70, 70 issue in that vicinity because you're free of these kinds of things.

1:18:44Interesting. I never would have thought that because I would have figured, okay, you're going to be old. How could that be? It's great. And then you're coming to your end. But anyway, it is for various reasons because you don't have to take care of kids anymore. You have to do that. You're free. You're not trying to prove yourself anymore. Anyway, I'm getting off the subject. But I'm just trying to convey the notion that does anybody stand back and saying how do these patterns go for good reasons? They go and they repeat that way and not exactly so if somebody was to say Well, wait a second, you know, you're living longer today because of the new technologies.

1:19:21That's true But it's still the life cycle by and large Okay, so anyway

1:19:32That's how it looks to me. It's a nice or a surprising realization that most people don't have an understanding. I guess it's funny that these things, the cycles seem to happen around about the same length of time that people are alive for. So unless you have a particularly unusually long life cycle, you don't get to see them twice. So you have to do the studying of history because if you just go on personal experience, You have only got to see it once and what is the the sense that every generation has that we are special from the one that came before I don't need to listen to granddad. I don't need to listen to that story He was telling me about what happened in 1945 that no no no this time's different But but yet through history all monetary orders have broken down I'm stating the fact money has broken down All political systems have broken down.

1:20:29United States is long and we've just had one civil war. We can have another civil war, but anyway. But watch them, they break down and then they come to a new system. And all geopolitical systems, world order have broken down. Last one broke down and we began a new one in 1945. Okay? It's like life cycles. Okay. I mean, you could ignore all that.

1:21:03What do you think that you'll write about but might be early on? Have you gotten intuition about something that as yet you can't necessarily prove, but you think, reliably this is a direction I think I'm going in.

1:21:22The timing, the exact certain actions of the taken, you know, where exactly when you step back, like I think, when is the US going to have its debt problem? I think three years from now give or take. And I also don't know that I'm absolutely right. And I, but maybe it's five years from now. I do, I am pretty confident that what we're seeing in terms of that squeezing out, that a debt service squeezing out like what are you going to do? Five minus seven. Okay, but you can't that that seven in spending you can't pretty much cut because if you look at the particulars of it well what are you going to do?

1:22:34You're going to cut your what are you going to do? how you're going to cut those things. Everybody's fighting over it and they look pretty fixed and okay. And that's going to add up. So it looks like it's going to go like this. Anyway, I don't want to over -embellish on that. But it looks like a doctor and looking at the economy and like a patient. And I could say, I can't tell you exactly when you're going to have a heart attack. I can tell you this plaque is building up and it's squeezing out, spending.

1:23:17Unless you do this, this, and this, and change your ways, that's going to to continue and at some point, it's very dangerous. Now, I can't tell you exactly when you're gonna have a heart attack or whatever, but and the only thing I'm suggesting is, I don't know, read my book or do it and decide is that makes sense or not. And it's up to you to take care of yourself. I'm just doing my part and try to pass it along. And maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but you can consider it. There we are. Well, I appreciate the time that you've put in to do it. Radalio, ladies and gentlemen, why should people go?

1:24:00They want to dig into more of the stuff that you've spoken about was the best place to have. Well, like I said, I think to really understand that either of my books, Changing World Order or how countries go broke the big cycle, either those would be good. Or you can, there are the free videos. There's a 40 minute changing the world order, I think, or a 35 -hub, I'm not sure. On YouTube video, you can watch it's free. And then there's a four -minute clip of it. And that'll probably give you the cycle, but anywhere you've heard quite a bit of it here.

1:24:39And then if deals more now with what to do about it, the books begin. principles for dealing with. So not only does it explain it, but more importantly, what do you do with it? And a lot of this is not even a bad on it, but to diversify or protect yourself against it. In other words, how do I just be like an insurance policy? If I bad times and good times. How do I take a certain amount of my money or whatever and protect myself against it? These are things we didn't get into in our talk about what you should do, what you could think about doing. They're in the books. If you want that, you know, I suggest you read it.

1:25:42I'm passing it along to help. I'm sure you I'm not doing it for the money of selling my books. Right, I appreciate you. Until next time. Thank you for helping me to pass this along.