AI Experts React: Elon’s Grok 4 Is Now #1 in AI — This Changes Everything w/ Emad Mostaque, Salim Ismail & Dave Blundin | EP #182

28:36What else can go up to you? We're actually releasing this block if you want to try it right now to evaluate run the same benchmark as us. It's on API, has 256K contact links. So we already actually see some of the early adopters to try Gwak4 API. So our Palo Alto Neighbor Arc Institute, which is a leading biomedical research center, is already using seeing how can they automate their research flows with Gwak4. It turned out it performs is able to help the scientists to sniff through millions of experiments logs, and then just like pick the best hypothesis within a split of seconds. We see this as being used for their like the CRISPR research and also, you know, Grog4 independently evaluate scores as the best model to examine the chest x -ray, who would know.

29:29And on the financial sector, we also see, you know, the Grog4 would access all the tools, real time information is actually one of the most popular AI is out there. So, you know, our graph was also going to be available on the hyperscalers. So the XAI enterprise sector is only, you know, started two months ago and we're open for business. Open for business. So, Iman, you've been working on medical -related AI. It's, you know, the block here isn't the tech. It's going to be the regulations. It's going to be when will an AI be able to fully replace a radiologist or fully replace any profession in the medical world.

30:12How do you think about that? Well, I think it's the augmentation first, reduce errors, increase outcomes, and then eventually it's replacement because Google had the AI Medical Expert study which showed that it was Dr. Dr. Plus Google search, Dr. Plus AI, and then AI by itself. Yeah, just to self -driving cause. I just want to touch on that because it was a really important article that came out. If you again, the physician by themselves was getting something like 80 % of the cases correct, the centaur, the physician plus the AI was getting like 87%, the numbers are approximate, and then the AI without the human bias, without the human biasing the the AI by itself was outdoing all of them at like their early 90 % extraordinary.

31:03Oh, again, it's worse that it's better than any post -grad at the moment. But right now, I think it's about the empowering and the acceleration in terms of the integration and your way off the liability profile of replacement. I think you need replacement right now. What we need is less errors in some of the medicine, right? I think the doctor number by itself, Peter was 70 % because I remember Daniel Crafting, when you go to the doctor, you get the wrong diagnosis about 30 % of the time, right? That's a staggering number of errors, by the way. But it means that of four of us, one and a half got the wrong diagnosis the last time we went to the doctor.

31:40I mean, we need to figure out who that was. That's really ridiculous. And so you need an AI to take over that whole field. Well, especially human bias and get your human bias out of that is also even more as we can. The number of types of scans and sensors you can do is way, way outstripping any human ability to look at all the data that comes out of it. So a lot of it isn't trying to beat a doctor. It's trying to assimilate data that never could have gotten into the diagnosis before. It's a great point. That's a great point. Just. That was going to be more. That's going to our next next one. So available for an API.

32:17All right. We've covered these areas already. Let's move on. A quick aside, you probably heard me speaking about fountain life before. And you're probably wishing, Peter, would you please stop talking about fountain life? And the answer is no, I wouldn't, because genuinely we're living through a healthcare crisis. You may not know this, but 70 % of heart attacks have no preceding, no pain, no shortness and breath. And half of those people with a heart attack never wake up. You don't feel cancer until stage 3 or stage 4, until it's too late. But we have all the technology required to detect and prevent these diseases early at scale.

32:52That's why a group of us, including Tony Robbins, Bill Cap and Bob Hooray, founded Fountain Life, a one -stop center to help people understand what's going on inside their bodies before it's too late and to gain access to the therapeutics to give them decades of extra health span. Learn more about what's going on inside your body from Fountain Life. Go to FountainLife .com slash Peter. And tell him Peter sent you. Okay, back to the episode. All right, I love this. You know, Elon is a gamer. And so it's not unreasonable for him to be talking about using GROCK to make games as take a listen. Yeah, so the other thing we talked a lot about, you know, having GROCK to make games, video games.

33:33So Denny is actually a video game designer on X. So, you know, we mentioned, hey, who want to try out some GROCK for preview APIs to make games? And Denny answered a call. So this was actually just made first -person shooting game in the span of four hours. So some of the actually the unappreciated hardest problem of making video games is not necessarily encoding the core logic of the game, but actually go out, source all the assets, all the textures of files and you know to create a visual appealing game. I think one of the challenges is what we do with all of our time in the future and we may be playing a lot of video games.

34:18You know this could actually light up the entire metaverse world because building the metaverse world and building those environments was the big limiting factor and now you can do it at a very rich level. This could be really interesting to see what comes from this. When did you guys first here that Grock IV was going to come out last night. He said a few days ago, didn't he? He's been on a week ago. He was saying there was going to be this weekend and then it got pushed to yesterday. I feel like we had about 48 hours to know this plus or minus a day or two. If you look at the presentation, the raw presentation from last night and compared to Google I .O.

35:01So, Google I .O. was scripted and staged with multiple presenters and clearly planned way in advance. This last night was like, is it done yet, guys? Is it done? Does it work? Okay, it works. We're launching tonight. Let's go. Get on stage. Let's go. And I think that's the way it's going to be in the future because it seems like getting to market one day, two days sooner actually matters a lot in this horse race. So this is kind of the dynamic we should expect going forward. But by the way, that narrator, that's the AI voice of a geek who is living and breathing it. And that's where you wanted that.

35:37Yes, we do. Let's take a listen on Elon on video games and movie production. For example, for video games, you'd want to use Unreal Engine or Unity or one of the main graphics extensions and then generate the art, apply it to a 3D model and then create an executable that someone can run on a PC or console or a phone. We expect that to happen probably this year and if not this year certainly next year. So that's going to be wild. I would expect the first really good AI video game to be next year. And probably the first half hour of watchable TV this year. And probably the first watchable AI movie next year.

36:40Yeah, it's amazing what the fragmentation of those industries is going to be incredible. Because normally we think of a video game coming out in a release. All of your friends get the exact same release. It's a release that's maybe good for a year or more. And you're all on like FIFA 23 now or whatever, 25. But here, because it's only four hours to create the next iteration, then you can say, well, no, I want to customize version. Or I want to, there's going to be all this fragmentation. And the version of the movie that I saw isn't the same ending that the one that's the So now we're debating on how we're not even on the same page and how the movie ends because we saw a different A .I.

37:14generated version. And it's going to be great. It's going to be really, really cool because everything's going to have here. We're going to have a lot to do with our time. I mean, E -Mod, listen, you spent so much time as CEO of Stability in this market arena of entertainment and video production and such. When I asked you earlier whether Hollywood is going to be disrupted, you said, no. So can you explain that, please? So I think the thing that won't grow is people's attention. So if you look at Netflix, their biggest competitor is video games. Which is why they're going into video games. You only have so many hours in a day and you're a consumer.

37:53Video games sector right now I think is $450 billion. The movie sector is $70 billion. That's how fast it's grown. Education around the world is like 10 times larger. So it's 10 % of education in terms of size. So if you think about that, then for Hollywood studios, this is great because the cost of coming down. And it's been a dramatic shift to give you an idea of the first video models, stable video, I think was pretty much the first. We released that in 2023. And now with VO3 from Google and others, you're pretty much at Hollywood level close to it, but you need one more generation to get there.

38:28And the average Hollywood click length is 2 .5 seconds. It used to be 12 seconds, which is 2 .5. And we can generate eight. And soon we'll be able to generate more. So you're getting to this point where you can make that. But again, people like having common stories to talk about. Barbie, Oppenheimer, and things like that. So these marquee things, they can get the license of carry grant from back in the day and make him a star again. You know, you're going to see the role. What's the role? Don't you think that there's going to be so much supply? If I have a chance to watch a new episode of Classic Star Trek, but I'm the character playing Captain Kirk and you're playing Spock and my friends are taking the roles.

39:16I mean, I don't know why I would not be buying that entertainment from a source other than no outside of Hollywood. Well, you'll buy that too, but I think one of the things we've seen in the AI world, what's it about distribution distribution distribution? So you'll buy your interactive games and put yourself in the game, but you'll still have your marquee things and the cost of that will decrease dramatically and the distribution cost will decrease dramatically and the impact will increase. So again, for companies, this is all great. For the individuals working in the industry, this is terrible.

39:48And so I think this is the key thing. For the individual creators, this is great because you can finally tell the stories. So we'll see you register stories, but you've still got to distribute them. It's like one of the exams I'm excited to give is Taylor Swift, bless her heart. It's not the best music in the world, but she still calls it's earthquakes, you know? Yeah, no. So you're point that I think the video game industry bypassed all of their media combined. I think I read that. And it's on a much faster growth trajectory as well. But I think the video games are far more compelling with AI components.

40:24AI players, AI voices, voices that are talking directly to you. And so that interactive media is going to get even more accelerated by this trend. So whether you call it movies or video games or other, the media is going to change, right? It always does. So it may not fit exactly in those swim lanes, but it's clearly the interactive talk to me part is going to grow much, much faster than passive watching part. Yeah, I think it's the quality part and it's the feedback for you to find flow. So the movie industries going from like 50 billion to 60 billion in the last 10 years, average IMDB score 6 .3.

41:02Video game industries like doubled inside quadruple, there was 170 billion now it's like 500 billion. The average score has gone from 69 % on Metacritic to 74%. Games are good now. And you need to be good to compete. And again, I think what we can see from this technology is I as a creator can create the best things better because I can control every pixel. This is what Jensen has said. Every pixel will be generated. Exactly what's in your mind. Maybe you have to use a keyboard, it just comes straight from your mind. It can be on that screen, you can tell the stories you want. On the other side, you've got the fast food.

41:38So the general content farms get even better. So you've got your gourmet and you've got your fast food. And both of the quality of those will increase. All right. Every day I get the strangest compliment. Someone will stop me and say, Peter, you have such nice skin. Honestly, I never thought I'd hear that from anyone. And honestly, I can't take the full credit. All I do is use something called One Skin OS1 twice a day every day. The company is built by four brilliant PhD women who identified a peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it. And again, I use this twice a day every day.

42:13You can go to 1skin .co and write Peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. That's 1skin .co and use the code Peter at checkout. All right, back to the episode. Of course, Grock for coding, let's take a quick listen. All right, so if you think about what applications out there that can really benefit from all those very intelligent, fast and smart models, then coding is actually one of them. Yeah, so the team is currently working very heavily on coding models. I think right now the main focus is we actually trained recently a specialized coding model which is going to be both fast and smart.

42:52And I believe we can share with that model with all of you in a few weeks. I still remember E -Mod when you were on stage with me like three years ago at the abundance summit and you said no more coders in five years. It was front page throughout India. I got hate mail about that. Oh my God, you scared the daylights out. And it's true. I mean, it's a big issue. It's a big issue. Why would you be able to talk to a computer about that? A computer can talk to a computer. Yeah. You know? Well, hold on. Let me get a good drill into that just for a second. Don't you think we'll end up with really good coders just creating 100 times more code?

43:35No, because what you'll have is really good context engineers directing to build things. Code is an intermediate step of language because the computers and the compilers couldn't handle the complexity of what we wanted to talk about. Now you can talk to the AI all day long about anything and it understands to a reasonable degree what you actually want. And once we get the feedback, it's really going as we've seen with cursor and other things like that. There's a reason it's got to $500 million in revenue in a year. There's a reason that Anthropics got to $4 billion, probably two -thirds of that is code.

44:10You know? Crazy. All right. Just pointing that we won't have this for a couple of weeks. We'll have to get back on the pod and check it out when it's out. Somebody told me you can get to it through cursor right now. I'm looking at cursor as we speak and I don't see it popping up as a cursor. Cursor is very much linked towards Anthropics, so it probably like the bottomize it. But GROC4 ready, heavy is a pretty good code, it writes clean code. And the coding model I think will be even better. But again, how much better are you going to get when you can output a 3D video game like that or just about anything?

44:43And I think this comes to think, are you, if you're trying to create content, the AI is good enough already for just about anything. If you're trying to create something creative, this is the final part that requires planning and coordination and multi -agent systems, and the UIUX isn't there yet for the feedback loops, et cetera. Yeah, now I can use all the horsepower they can give me, though, because when you're writing a little code module, it's all pretty much perfect already. But right now I can go to the best cloud model and say, build me a dashboard for this function, and just give it that prompt.

45:16And most of the time it comes back great, and even things of things that I wouldn't have thought of for that dashboard. And I can use another step up of capability in that area. So I'll use it up as quickly as it comes out. All the takins today. Okay, let's hear from Elon about his video model training. What's coming on input output? I would expect to be training of video model with over 100 ,000 GB 200s and to begin that training within the next three or four weeks. So we're confident it's going to be pretty spectacular in video generation and video understanding. So 100 ,000 GB 200 more than anybody's thrown at this.

46:03Emod, what is that? How does that as that hit you? So when we trained the state of the art first video model two years ago, two years ago, we used 700, 700, 100 H 100s. So like let's say they're three times slower. So they're equivalent to 200 of the chips that he's about to use because he's the integrated GB chips from Nvidia. The top level models right now. If you look at the loomers of the world, the bite dance models of the world, the VO3s, use two to 4 ,000. Wow. He's about to use a hundred thousand of those. And the thing about video is when you train a video model, it actually learns a representation of the world through computation.

46:53So once we made a video model, we extended it to a 3D model that can generate any 3D asset. It understands physics and more. So actually, video models are world models that can be used to do all sorts of things, like improve self -driving cars by creating whole worlds and other things like that as well. I think that's the reason why, given they've got 300 ,000 chips, they're putting 100 ,000 of these to the video model. Well, and they're planning a million GPUs by the end of this year. No. It's like no small dreams here. The mod when you pioneered this just a couple of years ago, like you said, the video model was trained completely separate from the large language model because it was just too much.

47:36You couldn't put everything into one mega model. Is he going to do a master retraining of this model with video data or is it a separate set of parameters in a separate model entirely? This will be a separate model. So we took the image model and then we created the video model from that and then we created the 3D model from that. Now they're doing from scratch training because the technology we developed for stable diffusion 3, the diffusion transformer matching it is able to do that all at once. And this is similar to what to V03 and others use and with optimizations you can just pop that all straight in.

48:08Now the arch that they use like the GROC model for the image is actually the same architecture as for the language and they may do the same thing. I'm not sure how they're going to train this model because again they're super smart but it's a different model entirely but they may all end up being the same model because if you want to model the understands physics and the wonders of the universe and what's the question to get to the answer 42? You probably want to train on everything that a human sees and more because it'll train on everything a million humans can see and understand and read and all sorts of stuff.

48:44I mean you know I'm excited about the idea of there's so many my favorite science fiction books that have never been made into movies or TV series right? I mean the ability to just say, hey, you know, like one of my favorite books is The Bob Over series by Dennis Taylor. And you know, I love it. It's a four book series. It's it's extraordinary. Make it into a movie for me. Make it into a 20 part TV series for me. Here's a hundred bucks. I'm sure actually if you took the best books that have ever been turned into movies already and use that as training data. So like this book turned into this killer movie, make the changes necessary to get from point of view.

49:29Okay, now here's a book that never got made into a movie from what you learned about those patterns, make the movie that's the most compelling. The thing is you won't even have to do that. Like just with the pace of chip improvements, as we go through the generations in two years, you will have live 4K TV. So you've already seen some people do like live low -resolution stuff, interactive stuff. When Jensen says every pixel we generate it, he literally means it. Like with the next generation chips and a bit of more improvement in the algorithms and optimization of the models, you can have live streaming 3D or video where every single pixel is generated on your screen within a few years.

50:13And so you can just say stop try this adjust this and that'll be the feedback loop. It'd be fun to take some old movies and make them way better. Take the old Kona and the barbarian movie and make it a really proper movie. I can use it. I like it. I like it. I like it. You know what hits me? We're sitting here having this conversation in four different cities around the world. We've taken so much for granted in this video channel. And like, you know, 10 years ago, what do we have? We had just barely at Skype. And now, it's crazy. So we humans adapt so rapidly to awesomeness. And we take it from normalize it very fast.

50:59It's like your second way, my right, right? Yeah. The first one's like, wow, when your second one was like, okay. Oh, for sure. So any any closing thoughts on I have a question. I have a question for E -Mod. You've been in the space for a while now we have GROC 4, right? One of the types of things that GROC 5 will be able to do. So GROC 5 will be a multi -agentic system but rather than having four boosters that will have 60 or 600 or 6000 depending on what you want. It will probably have a world model plug did and it'll have interconnectivity in this sun that Elon mentioned yesterday to every major type of system.

51:40So it knows how to use Maya. It knows how to use advanced physics in theulators. It will write its own lean code and optimize it for mathematics. And so it's just going to be like an incredibly versatile worker. And just like he's going to unleash millions of optimist robots, he's going to unleash billions if not trillions of these things, GPU demand, we're standing into the economy. and that's going to be a bit crazy. And I think the way that you'll interact with GROC -6, probably GROC -5, is you'll have a Zoom call with it, just like you have now. Mm -hmm. Hey folks, Slim here. Hope you're enjoying these podcasts, and this one in particular was amazing.

52:18If you want to hear more from me or get involved in our EXO ecosystem, on the 23rd of July, we're doing a once a month workshop, tickets are $100. We limit it to a few people to make sure it's intermittent and proper, and we go through the EXO model. What we do there is we basically show you how to take your organization and turn it into one of these Hyper -growth AI type companies and we've done this now for 10 years with thousands of companies Many of these use the model that we have called the exponential organizations model Peter and I co -authored the second edition a couple of years ago So it's a hundred bucks June July 23rd come along.

52:54It's the best hundred all you'll spend link is below see that Gemini 3 and and GPT -5, let's talk one second about what you expect there. Are these going to just leapfrog, Grog -4? Are they going to be diverting in different directions? You mod your thoughts. I think they'll probably all be the same plateau. Now it's really about the UI -UX and then how you wrap these into agent, so then multi -agent systems and then how you make it so just easy for anyone to use like this. So, you know, Google in the work that they've done with their AR glasses, you know, enabling you to have a conversation with your AI and being able to have it see what you see, that's a great step forward, you know, open AI with their voice mode has been fantastic.

53:47Are there any versions of, you know, user interface that we haven't seen yet? I mean, DCI will be one of them for sure. I mean, I personally think again, the interface is just the interface that you have with the remote worker. And all the technology is almost in place for that. Get on a call, hit a slack. Pretty much, and you just don't know. That's my AGI. My AGI is actually actually more like actually useful intelligence, right? Like this is, I think, what Selim would like. Just... I don't know, it's an AI or not. It just gets the job done and it doesn't sleep. And this final part of it as well is that the task length of these AI is gone to like seven hours now I think I've seen from various entities now they're getting that up to almost arbitrary length So you can set teams away and they have organizing AI's and others They get the job done they check in whenever they're unsure about something and then this is that next step up for all these technologies But I think the 10 to the 27 models will as you said all be pretty much similar because they're already above PhD and everything.

54:51Now it's about making them super useful and getting them out there. And the demand for that is in the billions of agents. The daily interest thing is Elon's got basically a limitless capital supply. Yeah. You know, it's every time he's gone to raise money, you know, I've asked, well, how much can I get in the next round? And it's like, well, we're oversubscribed already. Yeah, it's not the constraints. You can give you the money. It's going to be the GPUs. I have a question for you, Matt, about that actually, because if you say, OK, the GPD5 will be out soon a couple of weeks hopefully. It'll be on the same plane, probably leak frog, but in the same genre.

55:35And then Gemini 3 will come out, and it'll be somewhere similar, maybe a little better. But the chip supply, you know, Google has huge amounts of GPU and a massive cloud computing platform plus they make their own TPUs. Then, you know, we got a million chips going to Elon. We just talked about that. Sam at OpenAI has had a little bit of trouble with Microsoft recently. There's definitely some kind of falling out there. And the way OpenAI got ahead of everyone in the first places getting access to the compute from Microsoft. And so is he going to have a problem getting catching up to a million concurrent GPUs training a single massive model?

56:19I mean, I think Stargate is in that order of magnitude when you look at the kind of gigawatts and now Amazon's just an unspore anthropic using training them for something that's even bigger than Stargate with their latest kind of chip supply. Google's the leader in this, so they have three million odd. But the thing that I come back to is open AI basically slowed down when everyone was making Ghibli memes. And so if you think about order of compute of Ghibli memes compared to order of compute for useful work, like, it's that versus that. Google is okay because Google are actually landing millions of their own TPUs and they have the full stack and it has better interconnect for log context length.

57:00It's actually really good 7th generation hardware. Elon will get the supply because he's a beast. And I think again, open air, I have the capital, but they're moving more and more towards consumer, the Johnny I have acquisition and things like that. The dark horse here is probably again meta to be honest, because Zyker's going to drop a hundred billion dollars on this. He dropped 30 billion on the glasses on the Metaverse. He thinks AGI is coming and Meta is a $1 .7 trillion stock. He will easily drop $100 billion. He's got $70 billion of free cash right now to use and can pump it up. Well, I did an interview of Jan Lekun at MIT not super long ago and they had committed and already bought a million GPUs for internal use in Meta.

57:46So he had those on order already then I'm sure they're in house now. So he has the the compute in house. So basically all the top guys can get a million. The next step is 10 million. Well, there's only 20 million in the world. So this is where it runs into a bottle. They can't even keep a straight face. Can you? Well, but again, think about every pixel being generated and think about again, the economic activity of actually having a single useful teammate or account. I mean, we're talking about like accountants and lawyers and other things like that on the other side of the screen. We're Is Nvidia just going to just keep going, going, going?

58:24Is anybody going to displace their production at all? All of the top chip manufacturers are good enough to run these models. The only question is who has enough gating supply. The reason for the hopper thing was actually the packaging of the chips, the coos. So you have different supply channel constraints, just like robots. bots. In two years, robots will be good enough to do what? 90%, 95 % of human labor. The only reason the entire global economy on labor isn't going to flip over from $2 .1 robots is supply chains. So what we've got is a complete replacement of the capital stock of the economy from GPUs for virtual workers and robots.

59:07And it's just supply constraints. So Nvidia, number one, you don't go wrong, you don't get fired at getting Nvidia. But you'll get chips from wherever you can get them because those chips are all disappointed to you cheaper than your team members. I just asked to actually Gemini in the background here what it costs today's market rate to train a run of flop. So one of these models just a compute cost is 312 million. So like you said, Amade, it's like one signing bonus over the banana. So that's not the cost is not the issue. it's who has access to the compute. It was amazing to me in this entire conversation.

59:45We haven't said the word Apple once. Yeah, and Apple controls about a third of the manufacturing capacity at TSMC for their M3 line M2 line chips. So they could easily become a player in the the get a big data center up and running game. They'd have an incredible asset having that manufacturing toehold with TSMC. It's just incredible that they haven't done that. Well, I think this comes down to the thing. These models have economies of scope in that once you train a model that's good enough, do you really need another one? And then it becomes like electricity. It becomes a utility. So your genius models become utilities and then what matters is the model that runs on the M3 or whatever, you know, like liquid AI, just releasing edge models.

1:00:33Those things become even more important because the M3 has capacity. M4s have capacity. Yeah. Yeah, that's a really big deal, by the way. Liquid is, I didn't appreciate how big a deal it was until recently, but people are going to want to use this stuff immediately. I mean, it's so addictive. And the infertile compute is severely constrained. And liquid, you know, runs fine on the edge on these M3s. It runs really, really fast. It runs on the chips and the cars. And it's about, you know, they say about a hundred times more efficient than just trying to run a brute force transformer. So that could be a huge unlock for people having access to AI, you know, at least more access to keep up with the demand.

1:01:13Exactly. Because you'll have your gated stuff, and then they might increase prices because they have to because there'll be so much competition for chips, even as you get them cheaper. And then you just got this AI with you, but that AI will be smart enough to do your day to day. And so you'll have a whole curve of intelligence, just like sometimes you need to have steady workers and sometimes you need your geniuses. I forgot you were actually the first guy to see liquid when it was just a research. Yeah, I gave them all the compute to get going. Yeah, that's right. That was amazingly now that we're $2 billion valuation.

1:01:44So I think when you come back and join us next week, I think we have a schedule. I want to hear all about the intelligent internet. I'd love you to break things news on what you've been working on in secret for the last year or so. So I've seen pieces of it, it's awesome, but hopefully you'll spill the whole master plan for us. Dave, Celine, my moonshot mates, thank you guys. Grock for special edition. See you at Grock 5. Yeah, well, we're at Gemini 3 and like 3 meets. Yeah, we'll be back online soon. All right, see you all. Thank you for joining us on Grock 5. So bye, oh guys. If you could have had a 10 year head start on the dotcom boom back in the 2000s, would you have taken it?

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