AI Insiders Reveal Elon Musk's Master Plan to Win AI w/ Dave Blundin & Alex Wissner-Gross | EP #192

26:55Alex, what are your thoughts on this? I remember back to the early days of, call it the, the post 2012 ImageNet Revolution in AI when there was a lot of concern, including as I recall, from Elon that AI would end up being a monoculture. That one lab, maybe called Google DeepMind, would sort of completely capture the future like cone with AI. And I think I view this and other related headlines as very helpful sign that we're not ending up in that future of a monoculture of a singleton where just a single culture from a single frontier lab has complete dominance, complete hegemony over AI. We're going to see and we are seeing multiple competing AI frontier labs with different cultures and this should and is, you know, it's, this should be one of those cultures.

27:53The, the manic focus and intensity of just delivering state of the art results and we'll see lots of other cultures as well and we'll have them compete and that's the world that we humans I would argue want to live in. Yeah, and I think, you know, purpose, a purpose driven life is going to be far more important in the future than anything else and being clear about why you're doing what you do and waking up in the morning and having an epic mission and being excited about building is a future that I want. It's always been part of my life and I want for my kids. That's what's going to win over just cash, especially working someplace if you don't like the culture, as you said.

28:34I want to play a short video. This comes as part of Elon's master plan, part four, on sustainable abundance and let's chat about it afterwards. humans are tool makers and that Tesla we are builders of physical products at scale that make life better for all. We are building the products and services that bring AI into the physical world. We are combining our manufacturing capabilities with our autonomous prowess to accelerate global prosperity.

29:07We are building a safer, cleaner, and more enjoyable world for all. We call this sustainable abundance.

29:29What's the happiest future in the world? One which there's a standable abundance world. So I love that term sustainable abundance. You know, it's amazing to see abundance becoming an underlying theme for, you know, the hyperscalers and for the tech world. And it's part of the optimistic vision of the future, right? You're not going to see this on the six o 'clock or seven o 'clock news. You're not going to see it on the Washington Post and New York Times. It's important to realize that technologies that we're talking about on this pod are going to shape every aspect of our lives. And there is so much positive use.

30:03It's so easy to focus on the negative. But, you know, understanding, and this is, you know, Elon's been on this mission since I met him back in 2000 when he'd sold, you know, sold to PayPal, sold PayPal to, which is called the, the Soled to eBay. And he's been on the mission of autonomous vehicles, electric cars, solar, making humanity multiplanitary, and people love those epic grand challenges, right, these moonshots, which is the podcast at all about, and they gravitate towards that. Dave? So Peter, you invented X -Prize and used X about 10 years before Elon stole it from you and then abundance was the name of one of your books.

30:51My first book. So what's next in the Elon takes all Peter ideas? Oh God. It was very funny because the X -Prize logo looked identical to the space X's and then to X's logo. I didn't have the heart to call them out on it but hey, it's fine. He's been generous supporting the exprise and supporting our work over the years. He's given probably $150 million of capital to support some of the exprises we've done. But sustainable abundance is a real thing. It's about digitizing, dematerializing, demonetizing, and democratizing everything. The way I like to describe this is, if you think about it, when Google came out, Google Google was a for -profit company.

31:37It had the biggest nonprofit impact. In the words, it uplifted all of humanity. And the poorest child on the planet using Google and the wealthiest child, Larry Pages kids, Sergey Brins kids, Google was identical for those. It was a leveling and democratizing capability. And we're gonna see that here for food, water, energy, healthcare, education. And that's extraordinary. Alex, so by the other, You've been on this journey with me. Oh, yes. Yeah, no, I love this term. I think it's been implicit recognition that another important part of the equation, which is autonomy, aka superintelligence or post abundant intelligence, is the missing factor here.

32:24When I look at the video and I hear the term, and I see its usage and practice, immediately this screams to me the intersection of abundant energy and materials on the one hand and abundant intelligence and autonomy on the other hand. And I think it's sort of a, it's a rare and precious time in human history when we can have near total clarity as to what the technology tree looks like. Every time, every time we talk about having scarcity of something like lithium, oh my god, we're running out of lithium. It's like we discover these massive supplies on, you know, off the coast of California. There is nothing that's truly scarce, period.

33:03And I think the sooner people get that technology is a scarcity, you know, destroying force. Dave, you're going to say something. Well, yeah, the other thing on that slide that is kind of sandwiched in the middle and bullet too is the seven day work week. You have a bunch of companies at Link Studio working 9, 9, 7, and they just declare, you know, we're doing 9, 9, 7, what's 9, 9, 7? It's this China a thing where you work 9 a .m. to 9 p .m. seven days a week while you're sprinting towards some massively transformative purpose. So those two things go hand in hand. No one's going to work 9 .9 .7 on something irrelevant.

33:37It has to be something world changing and imminent. You know, you do it in a sprint to get to a very specific destination, but that is by far the winning strategy. If you do this massive million GPU data center and you do it a year late, it's worth zero. It's absolutely worthless. There's no point in doing it, you know, on a four day year up work week, you just either do it or don't do it. If you do it and sprint, it's like a Olympic gold medal. You got a sprint. Yeah. I think it's also interesting. When we, I think it's 996, but China was 996, but I think it's exactly. With the slides at seven, with the reactions and 996, you know, popularly lying flat people who are opting out of the 996 culture.

34:25It's sort of interesting to think about whether sustainable abundance actually obvietes that entire discussion altogether rather than lying flat under the implicit assumption that 996 ends that the need for enormous amounts of human labor are going to continue in perpetuity. What if we actually a few years from now find ourselves in a sustainably abundant future where the need for 996 human labor is actually only a short term need a few years from now, we hand over that workload to autonomous systems. Then we go to the stars. Then we go to the stars. All right, on the flip side of this conversation is people are beginning to bolt from Meta's new superintelligence lab.

35:05So two months after the launch, at least three top researchers have resigned, two returned to OpenAI while Meta's long -term product director also joined Altman's ranks. Departures are raising questions despite recruits to being offered nine figure packages. And to be clear, we don't actually know what's going inside. This is just reporting what came out and wired. But I do think when you're capturing an employee by offering them a lot of money, that's not gonna capture their time and attention and their heart. It's mission and purpose that captures them. Dave, you agree? Well, absolutely. And I think also, Elon has a reputation for everything always working.

35:49So having an MTP has to be married with a mission that will succeed to develop that reputation of not only is it massive in implications, but it's going to happen, it's real. Because it's very easy to go out there and say, I'm going to build electric cars like, come on. And then if it doesn't work out, no one will join you the second time. So you have to have a track record of succeeding. Now Mark Zuckerberg is probably the, you know, of the young CEOs in the country, the most successful with the most cash flow, every opportunity to win. Elon has done it repeatedly though. So I think a lot of people are flocking to the, he's always been right before, why would he be wrong this time?

36:28Yeah, that really helps. Never be wrong. Yeah. Yeah. All right, I want to spend too much time on this, but it's been a big week for Google. We're on the verge of the release of Gemini 3, it should be coming out any day now. But I mean, top news and extraordinary conversation around Nano Banana powered by Gemini 2 .5 Flash image. Let's take a look at this video. A few days ago, image editing changed forever. Google released Gemini Flash 2 .5 Image Nano Banana. That has everyone buying puts on Adobe because Photoshop is officially dead. Instead of learning how to use all these antique tools, you can now just prompt Nano Banana for changes and it's able to deliver any photo alterations you can imagine.

37:12And most importantly, while maintaining the consistency of the original image, not only is NanoBanana an exceptional image model that's already at the top of the LM reader board, but is also extremely fast and affordable, costing only $3 .9 per image via the API. The upgrade that most people are talking about though is character consistency. If you start with an image of a person or pet, for example, the model can blend it with a different image or make minor changes to it without noticeably altering the original character. Or multiple characters and objects like this guy did by blending 13 different images together.

37:43What's kind of crazy about this model though is that it also has an understanding of the real world. Like if you point to a spot on Google Maps and ask what a person would see there, it can generate a realistic photo. Just epic. Just epic is right. And I very few people, I'm basically nobody under the age of 40, remember his life before the GUI, the GUI on your computer. But we do. When the Apple 2 first came out, you know, you would boot it up, where we know TRC, or whatever, you boot it up, and this little flashing prompt would be there. What can I do with this? What can I do with this? Yeah, hello, what do I do?

38:17And all you can do is just start writing code. That's basically all you've got. Just start writing code. And then, you know, what, 1984, 85 Steve Jobs comes out with the Mac, and now everybody somebody's lived in this kind of world of stasis of the GUI for 30, 40 years now. So everybody's like, yeah, nothing ever changes. This is all going to change imminently. It'll be the biggest step function. It'll be much bigger than going from no computer to computer or computer to command line to GUI. But it's been so long that nothing has changed that people are completely underestimating how different the world will be a year from today when everything has a, I just asked the computer to do this for me, just like on Star Trek, and it just did it.

39:02But that's happening literally right now. I guess the implications for startups are incredible. If Adobe gets destroyed by this, I think our friend Greg Bellas is still over there, so be kind of sad if that happens. But it'll be very important, as a wake -up call, that if you've been camping on your software installed base for the last 20 plus years, milking it for money, your days are numbered. Yeah, I mean, because everything's going to change. If you're a Adobe Photoshop or a Canva specialist making your living that way, right? I mean, you understood how to do layers and masks and manual adjustments, but NanoBinana is just, you know, edit through language, not layers.

39:44It like, you know, do this. You know, it's literally, you know, how do you describe what you want in a way that AI will understand it? That's going to be the skill base. Yeah, exactly. And if you're a graphic artist or you're a writer or whatever, you get so used to these tools and all their proprietary interface components, and then you're just afraid to shift to something else because it's so you get so invested in knowing where the menus are and knowing where the buttons are and knowing how it responds. And so then you're locked in and you end up paying for that product for, you know, 10, 20 years.

40:15Now, everything's wide open again. The interface is trivial. My mom, who's in our 80s, has no problem creating images. She could never use Adobe Photoshop. Never figured it out. Now she can just talk to it. I would argue, actually, so I've been using Anno Banana quite a bit. It's actually a much bigger deal than just some of the headlines that would say, this is a Photoshop killer. So in using Anno Banana, some of the most striking new capabilities that I've seen are you can feed it an image and then ask to view the same scene from a different perspective. That's way more than just pixel level Photoshop style editing.

40:53It smells to me like this is just a sliver or a distillation of a larger world model. Sort of like we've spoken about Genie 3 in the past. It feels to me like this is some sort of like a tendril from a much more monstrous model. and if that is indeed the case and to the extent that NanoBanana has basically become merged into the mainline Gemini model releases by Google DeepMind, I think this sort of pretends a future where world models like in the class of Genie 3 of the videos that we've discussed previously, those just merge into GPT or Gemini type models as the ultimate modality of interactive, simulated maybe even streaming realities.

41:40I tell you what else Alex, you know, all media competes with all of other media. There's no swim lanes. Everything competes for time from users. On music, right? It's scary. At least while we have, well, we're stuck with finite attention. Maybe we can make attention to post -scarice as well. Okay, well, for the next couple of years. But you know, this time of year, normally by now I would have, you know, done a fantasy football league, signed up for my players, know who, you know, the first football games will start. I haven't even paid attention. I don't even know what's going on because the stuff that you post on our link chat is so much more entertaining and engaging than mainstream media.

42:13I mean, the stuff that you wear as a single -handed person can create is so much more interesting and relevant. It's just a capability that never would have existed a year ago. Well, look, a singularity probably only comes about approximately once per planet, so it's a special time. It is a special time. We're going to celebrate that. I'm going to have a singularity party when it happens. I hope you guys enjoyed me. We made this point last time. AI won't take your job. It'll let you do any job. And I think this is a perfect example, right? I mean, literally designers who have made their career based on understanding how to use a specific tool really well.

42:53Now anybody can do that. But here's a question for you, right? If I go and I say to Natalie Banana, hey, place me on the moon in a spacesuit, getting into a starship for return flight to Earth and it generates that. Who's the author of that? Is it the software? Is it the human who prompted it? We're going to start to have some interesting conversations around ownership, blurring the lines of authorship and human loop creativity. That's going to be an important conversation. But let's talk about the, you know, the real issue here, which is the ability for this to drive accelerated misinformation and the erosion of visual trust, right?

43:37The old saying, seeing as believing is out the window period. Thought? Yeah, I, my comment on that would be, we're in a post VO 3 post Sora post natural language generation era. I think there's a future to the extent that one wants to have faith in the accuracy of any visual inputs, images, or videos. I can see a future maybe where there's some sort of cryptographic chain of trust between cameras, video, and still cameras, and browsers, sort of like the way there's cryptographic guarantee that when you put in your credit card information to pay for something on a website that the credit card information is handled in a cryptographically safe way between you and the ultimate counterparty.

44:28One can imagine some sort of cryptographic guarantee that you see in social media was actually unaltered in some sense from the original capture without any AI involved. That said, my baseline expectation is that that's not going to be very popular and that just changed the rescue. you, but this is deep fakes on an industrial scale. I mean, just to put it where it is, you know, nanobanches. But this is what people also said though, right before GPT -2 and GPT -3 and this will empower all sorts of misinformation, disinformation. And yes, there is a lot of probably false information that's being generated by these models, but I have to look at it as sort of a risk -for -ward trade -off.

45:14there's so much new scientific information that's being unlocked by these models, very difficult to get to bothered by the potential downsides. I'm not worried about that, but I'm just saying, you know, for the majority of eight billion people on the planet, if they keep on seeing, I mean, you're going to get to a point where when I'm there now, when I see a video, my first reaction is, is it real? Right. And my second reaction is going to be, no, it's not real. Yeah, no, no, no, no, no, you know, you've read all of the Neil Stevenson books, I'm sure, Peter. Of course. Of course. Of course. That's not enough of course, but of course.

45:49So yeah, like the Diamond Age to me was the, everything he's ever predicted in those books has happened. And he invented the word avatar in the first books, No Crash. Just for a saw, cyber, cyberspace, that word was invented there. But in the Diamond Age, you know, everybody moves into these communities that have different rules around technology and how you manifest it because it gets too weird, too fast. And so the big, big step function change for society is cameras everywhere. Right, and that started years ago. And so now we're living in the cameras every world. You know, like there's no concept of, you know, privacy, you know, anytime you're outside, you're being filmed at a minimum by a satellite.

46:29I've said that you should. But you can know anything you want, anytime you want, anywhere you want. The data is there. Layers are drones. Layers of satellites. Layer of autonomous car cameras everywhere. Everything's being imaged. There is no privacy. That's another conversation we can have. Well, there's 10 megapixel cameras now or 50 cents each. Yeah. So they're going to be everywhere. And so then now, you know, that already happened to society. And also social media happened to society. It just totally changed the whole election process and everything's been disrupted tremendously in the last 10 years.

47:00So now you layer the deepfakes on top of that. It's just the third act in this massive turbulent societal change that's only going to accelerate. And of course, governments do nothing. They just sit there and assume people are talking about the next election. Like it's going to be anything like the last election. It's going to be a different world by the time we get to the next election. Yeah, I would just maybe add, I would speculate that this maybe call it a moral panic that we're engaging in right now is going to look very quaint in a few years. It's difficult to imagine people with smart glasses doing real -time augmented reality overlays of everything that they're seeing on the one hand, which by the way means basically everything becomes photo edited, everything that UC becomes doctored by default on the one hand, on the other hand, oh, but, you know, clutch, clutch, whatever it is, the moral panic that you're worrying about, like, what about the photo editing?

47:54No, I think it's far more likely that this will look quaint and nonsensical in a few years, but everything is moral, it's becoming quaint. It's worth noting that there is a digital invisible watermark that Google's putting on these images, synth ID and we're gonna start to have sort of a arms race between Gen AI and detection tools as well That's gonna be part of it. It's always the you know the virus antivirus war everybody There's not a week that goes by when I don't get the strangest of compliments Someone will stop me and say Peter you got such nice skin. Honestly. I never thought especially they'd 64 I'd be hearing anyone say that I have great skin and honestly I can't take any credit it.

48:38I use an amazing product called One Skin OS01 twice a day every day. The company was built by four brilliant PhD women who have identified a 10 amino acid peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it, and like I say, I use it every day twice a day. There you have it, that's my secret. You go to OneSkin .co and write Peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. Okay, now back to the episode. Let's go to Google's next big announcement of this past week, which is Google Translate. And another incredible product coming out right now. So Google's AI -powered live translation, historically Google has translated about a trillion words per month for 600 million users, supporting 243 languages, which by the way is 58 ,806 language pairs.

49:30Amazing. But we're now being driven by Gemini 2 .5 with a live translate. Let's take a look at this video.

50:06I think I know what it is. It's seasonal and in fact, we've already taken it off the menu. But let me see if we can still prepare it for you. Pretty amazing. The question is, what's this going to do to the industry of language translation? What's it going to do to people learning languages? I used to want my kids to learn multiple languages. Now the question is, do they invest their time in doing that? Gentlemen. What was that company that all the kids used to cheat on their homework? they got the public company, got a blended. Alex, which one is it? Not sure, but what I would say, I mean, just historic reminder, remember the transformer architecture that sort of helped kickstart a lot of the generative AI revolution, it was originally developed for language translation for machine translation.

50:56It was an encoder plus decoder architecture right now. We mostly use the decoder part, but nonetheless, it's sort of ironic that the the original targeted application for transformers was statistical machine translation or machine translation. And it's sort of only now that we're starting to see pervasive machine translation, finally tackling the real world use cases of real time conversational embedding site. That's first thought. Second thought is it's sort of interesting to speculate. I think what does this do to language diversity in general? Do we, is this sort of a net promoter of languages?

51:40There's been a lot of hand -ranging over the past 20 years about low resource languages dying out in favor of usually English, but sometimes other languages. Or is this sort of a net promoter of diversity where once all languages thanks to AI become fully interoperable as it were, there's suddenly no reason to collapse down to sort of one modal English language. Do you know that just here? Someone who speaks three languages is trilingual. Someone who speaks two languages bilingual. If they speak one language, they're American. Well, that's going to turn out to be the winning strategy. The company was Cheg.

52:19Check out its stock ticker, where we'll splice it into the podcast here. But it went down from 90 bucks to a buck 40. Wow. Now, just because chat GPT is a better way to cheat on your home market or whatever on them. Well, it's not really what they do, but the point here is that Google is also providing a language practice mode that allows you to personalize speaking and listening exercises. The impact on that on Duolingo was 10 % stock drop. So, DualLingo is a $13 billion company. It's done incredibly well. 130 million active users, only 10 % of the users pay. But nonetheless, it's generating real revenues.

53:06And you can see this drop that occurred last on August 29th when this Google Live AI translate capability was announced. So this is another example where these large frontier models sort of in their wake, whether or not they know it are going to be disrupting existing companies. We're going to have to constantly be pivoting. Yeah, and Alex Duolingo is absolutely doomed unless it becomes an AI company. And if it becomes an AI company, it can go through the roof. But a lot of these companies don't have the AI talent to get started. So you got to turn the battleship somehow. But if you do succeed in turning the battleship, your evaluation can go through the roof.

53:46You've seen that a single, incredibly talented AI researcher can be worth a billion dollars. So you know the value is there. I mean, in general, in the short term, I want to generalize from just this one instance. So in some sense, I think the sort of the cliche here is every software as a service company is under existential threat from generative AI models that will simply cannibalize them from below, whether you're doing software for some enterprise purpose or whether you're or just software subscriptions to help people learn new language, that frontier model is just, that chatbot is going to devour you because you've become just one special case among countless numerous cases that a generalist model can handle.

54:32I think that's critically important, right? Every CEO out there, every board of directors needs to understand that if they're not building on an AI base that's accelerating alongside with everybody else, if they're depending on their old business model software as a service, they will be marginalized. But here's the truth. But here's the truth. Remember what we said before too. If you're in a regulated industry, you have a little bit of time, you can actually get ahead of it. You got to get the AI talent now, but you can get ahead of it. If you're not in a regulated industry, like, you know, Cheg or Duolingo, and you're just user install base, then you're really vulnerable.

55:07You have the advantage of a user install base and a brand using it to your advantage to actually leapfrog forward. don't like yesterday. Yeah, yeah, sorry. Just to dwell for a minute on what that leapfrogging looks like. I think I agree in the short to medium term differentiated user experiences are a bit of a moat, if you will. But in the medium to long term, what I'd like to see from every single SaaS that feels existential risk from being devoured by a generalist model is step up your ambition by 100x, 1000x. If you're if you're a dual -lingo and you happen to feel existentially threatened by generalist models, maybe consider becoming a brain computer interface company.

55:50Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could side -load new languages in the style of the movie The Matrix into the human brain and rather than spending days or weeks or years learning a new language? Why can't you enable your clients who are users to learn it and And then it's pick a moonshot. I mean, that's the whole purpose of this podcast. Get people and you go 10x, 100x bigger, pick a moonshot. Higher Alex as a consultant for two weeks and you'll have a moonshot if you ended up. No, he has no time for that. Okay. All right. So let's take a look here. We've got OpenEI real time API, bringing smarter voice AI.

56:27So let's look at this quick video here. I love this one. Are there any homes in my budget? with a view of the skyline and Mount Rainier. Sure, let me look. With your biability of 824k, Wallingford would be a great fit. I think you'll love 404 North 33rd Street. It has those skyline and Rainier views you're after. With this week's market, I book a tour with an agent soon. Want me to set that up? So this, you know, this capability, this is an example of using this on Zillow to find your home, describing exactly what you want, and having it actually scrape and generate a efficient answer. But just the ability to do all of this and actually get you to the point.

57:13I mean, what you want next is find the house by it for me, arrange the mortgage, and arrange the moving trucks. And let me know when to show up in my new place. Yeah, no, I think AI is a management tool, a general -purpose management tool, hugely underrated. because everybody loves the graphical stuff, the image creation, and the self -driving car, the stuff you can feel. But just as a general way to manage large -scale projects with hundreds of people and moving parts on logistics, it's unbelievably good at doing that. So I think we can expect far more efficient construction, management, manufacturing, supply chains than we've ever seen before.

57:52Because the sensor data with all the cameras everywhere has been available for a few years now. But it's all kind of dumped into big databases. You throw it into snowflake or something like that. And then very hard to make sense of it. The missing ingredient was this AI overlay that can just take the unstructured freeform data and turn it into conclusions, action schedules, buying things, scheduling things, managing things. And we had our condo in Vermont built many years ago, 20 years ago. They put the tie -vec on upside down. So it's overlapping the wrong way. So it grabs rainwater and funnels it into the wood.

58:28So, you know, like, you know, years later, everything's rotting, the whole thing's falling apart. Like, why would you put the tie -back on upside down? Now, very, very easy for the AI to say, hey, dude, stop. It's just as easy to put it on right. You're putting it on overlapping the wrong way. Just a trivially easy AI problem all of a sudden. So, thousands of things like that can suddenly be converted. Yeah. So, I mean, I've, I'm sorry, I was going to say the point here though is the real -time API Alex, let's chat about that. Yeah, so I've played with this. The underlying model is called GPT real -time.

59:04If you've played with AVM, Advanced Voice Mode of OpenAI, that's the mode where you can chat in real -time with very low latency responses with chat GPT. It's a lot like that, but in API form so that it can serve as a back -end for third -party applications. And I really do think this is transformative. In part, because imagine taking low latency, voice to voice, but generally capable intelligence, and now embedding it everywhere. I think it probably ends up being transformative for customer service type applications, probably many other sectors as well. But even bigger picture, I think this is a preview.

59:46I'll be a tiny preview of a future where every single audio segment, every single pixel on -screen is generated in real -time, streamed, interactively on demand. And just our user experiences, our user interfaces are just completely just in time generated. It's going to be a very, very interesting feature. And there's a single interface. There's a single interface to the world, right? Yes. Your Jarvis will go in interface with everything out there, whether you know it exists or not, and give you the answer you finally want. We don't have a good catch for this. We're a voice customer service company, Vokara, doubled in ARR during the past week and is planning to 10x between here and the end of the year.

1:00:34Just using this exact capability for complex customer service and sales conversations. But so far the consumers dramatically prefer it to a human call center agent. It's because it's so knowledgeable. In the link studio. Yeah, yeah. So I'm going to take a look at my knowledge. We're going to sing a term for this. I've definitely come around to the view that it's important to coin new terms whenever there's sort of this important new concept. I think we're missing a term for this. It's not conversational user interface because it isn't always conversational. The best term, if I had to coin a term for what I think we're seeing the beginnings of would be something like streaming interactive models.

1:01:15It's not necessarily just voice could be like Genie 3 where if there's a visual component could ultimately be like a brain computer interface type component. So try it on for size. And because the interactive models are sims and because everything becomes a TLA streaming interactive Interactive models are sims, right? Okay. Alex, you point it here. Yeah, I think the silo example is really important for people to look at. rewind the pod and watch it again. Because customer service is typically a phone call today. It's very hard to explain complicated things on a phone call. So this is very quickly going to move to multi -modal where it's talking to you while creating images in real time.

1:01:53And people have an experience that before, because no human call center operator can create an image or pull up thousands of pictures in real time, but the AI can do it very easily. All right, let's move on. Let's move on if we can. A lot to cover still. we're still in AI, we're going to be covering a lot more in energy, health, and starship. And video beats revenue predictions, defying fears of an AI bubble. I think that's great news. Up 56 % year on year from 2024, companies at 4 trillion stock is up 700 % since Chech, Gbt's 2022 release. How awesome is that? Yet, we still have a bunch of US -China turbulence in video game 15 % of China sales to the US to keep exporting.

1:02:46Just reporting this news and video continues to be leading the pack. There's another piece of news I want to hit on regarding this, Alex, I like it a chat about, which is out today. and its investors bet on Cambricon as China's next AI chip champion. Would you chat about this? Yeah, maybe looking at these two stories together through the lens of where value is accumulating in the stack. So I think there are sort of two competing worldviews. One is call it the pyramid model where the broadest part of the pyramid is at the base. In this case, under this worldview, most of the profits in the AI revolution that we're living through will accumulate at the lower infrastructure levels like the chip designers or or the FABs or data sectors, the lower levels.

1:03:40There's also competing world view that we ultimately move to or maybe are living in but just don't realize it yet an inverted pyramid model where most of the profits and most of the value of crew at the upper layers, the application layers, the all the startups that are being built on top of these frontier models, and the frontier models themselves just become profitless or profit sucking commodities. I think if you sort of look at these two stories through a common lens, at the moment, these would seem to bias me at least in the direction of thinking that for the moment, most of the profit is accumulating at the bottom of the stack, at the GIP design level, at the data center level regardless of geography.

1:04:25But let's talk a little bit about this new company, back in Canberacan, if you would. Yeah, no, it's difficult to know what precisely is going on inside any given company regardless of whether it's US -based or China -based. I do think, again, just generalizing over Huawei, Canberacan, and then obviously a whole cohort of American AI I think we're seeing the beginnings of a non -monoculture where there are diverse chip architectures, diverse chip architectures for AI acceleration from the US, and seemingly the beginnings of a diverse set of non -invidia based AI accelerator or accelerated compute architectures coming out of China.

1:05:17And where all of this goes, I think, your bet is as good, if not better than mine. But I think that the headline here is, is that there may be the beginnings of a post -invidia post -Quta monoculture kind of China. I think that's the point I want to make whenever you restrict China on ability to sell them products, they will develop products there. We have a lead, that lead is getting shorter and shorter on chips and AI. We saw this as well in the satellite world, right? When the US Defense State Department started limiting the ability to export satellites from the US to different parts of the world, the industry finally materialized and competed back against the United States.

1:06:00And so, you know, this is this strategy of scarcity doesn't work in a culture of a global culture of innovation. Well, I'll also tell you, you know, David Sacks talking to you right now, but if you look at that seven nanometer capability and we're operating at two nanometers, you're like, oh, we're miles ahead of China. But the algorithmic improvements can be massive, like 10 ,000 ,000X kind of improvements. Yes. That's exactly. A way more important than the seven versus two nanometer gap. And that, we're not used to that in government because we're used to like the nuclear arms race or the space race, where you're not going to get a 10X advantage by magic.

1:06:39There's no rocket fuel that you can throw in there that's one -tenth the weight of the computer. It just doesn't exist. It's great. It's not where it does exist. In fact, it's common. It's everywhere. Very easy to get complacent about where you stand. In fact, when you restrict, you cause innovation in different areas here. Algorithmic, we're going to see 100x, 200x, 1000x improvements there over the next few years. And just to remember, China has won the, you know, the Math Olympic, Olympic I had now, and, you know, year after year after year, they have incredible talent. And 50 % of Meta's, you know, AI staff is Chinese.

1:07:22Let's not fool ourselves. The intelligence is there to innovate as well as here. Though it's different here, of course, we mentioned earlier, is sort of the risk capital, the entrepreneurial drive that has people working around the clock. I would just make this note again, as we talk about Nvidia, this is not going to be solely Nvidia World. We're going to see China step up and compete. Love this article. Again, we've talked about the idea that AI is no longer US -centric. We're seeing the world step up and get involved. So this is billionaire and Bonnie taps Google and meta to build India's AI backbone.

1:08:06Mukesh and Bonnie launches reliance intelligence ventures to build India's AI infrastructure. And, you know, I know Mukesh. I've been to his home many of her times in India. I was at his epic wedding. What was he? A year and a half ago or so. And the guy is an incredible entrepreneur. I mean, just for people to understand this. He enters India's telecom market in 2016. He's the 10th mobile provider, right? You've got Vodafone, AirTel, all the players there, but he comes in with a completely different business model. And that's his brilliance. So Reliance Geo launched a radically different model, free voice calls for life, ultra cheap data, and months of free service trial.

1:08:53Now the other thing he did was it used to take you like two days to get a mobile phone. He basically said, show up in the store, sign a few papers, and it's instantly up and operating. And then he uses his capital to leapfrog over 2G and 3G and build out a 4G nationwide network. And so he literally destroyed the competition. And they are the major cell phone provider, mobile phone, telephony provider. and you know, Selim's in India right now, when I was there, it's, you know, five bars service, five G across the nation everywhere. So it's pretty extraordinary and I expect he's going to do the same thing here in AI.

1:09:35Well, something big is going to happen in India because you saw Kevin Kevin wheels saying they're making a huge push at OpenAI in India. I'm like, oh, it's kind of odd why are you doing that? Well, if you look at the demographics of the country, it has by far the most untab talent in the world. I mean, by far China is in a terrible spot because of the aging demographic problem. The one child per family thing caught up to them in a big way. Another kind of massive aging demographic problem. US is in great shape because immigration is strong. Always has been, hopefully, always will be. But India has the best latent, you know, right in the sweet spot, you know, 20 to 40 -year -old talent pool in the world.

1:10:15And And so, the reason that per capita GDP has been so bad in India for so long is that it's incredibly corrupt. All the structures are terrible. But I think AI might have a way to cut through that and just go direct to the people. And also poor transportation between the road being flooded out, we're going to see aerial deliver in India as well. All right, let's keep moving on. On time, top 100 AI for 2025, so this was their issue. I sent Mark Benioff, congratulations. I said, Mark, you're not listed here, but you need to be on this list as well. But check this out. If these are in order, Matthew Prince is number one, Elon's number two, Sam Altman's number three.

1:11:03And it's fascinating that Matthew Prince is number one. Any idea why? I would be remiss if I didn't note that sometime in the media cycle over the past week is, it is a lot of interest in the future of CloudFlare, which Matt leads and an agentic AI. There's a lot of interest in what does, almost what does a web where AI agents that are independently surfing the web on the same level with the same rights as human web surfers look like or should there be sort of a separate entrance to the web and to the economy for AI agents. So if I had to speculate, I would say the intersection of Cloudflare and special handling of AI agents could be one possible reason.

1:11:55I did a little digging, let me tell you what I found out. So Matthew Prince stands atop this list for one reason. He's been focused on safeguarding the value internet content. So he's all about making sure that there's proper attribution and that you basically are not stealing from the publishers. And of course, Time Magazine is a publisher. And so I think they're flexing their muscle here to say attribution is critically important. I think it's going to be, I mean, maybe even worthy of much more dedicated time actually doing a deep dive on the issue of should AI surfing the web on its own be treated the same as a human web surfer or should they be treated differently?

1:12:42I think there are so many nuances there. The other thing we see on this list is a huge amount of global diversity and it picks up leaders in different countries. This is no longer just a Silicon Valley play. this is a global play where countries are beginning to invest heavily and really double down on this. Next topic here, I love this one. So, Arabian B's co -founder, Joe Gebbia, who's been on my stage at Abundance. He's amazing. His name, the US Chief Design Officer. So, appointed by Trump, his goal is redesign government sites and services to be simple, modern, and friendly. I love his quote, I want to make government services as satisfying to use as the Apple store.

1:13:29That would be awesome. Yeah, I think it's perhaps not obvious, but there is actually an open source library hosted on GitHub that's, I think, offers Joe enormous amounts of leverage for the task that he's taking on. It's called the US web design system, USWDS. And it is, in principle, common set of user interface components underlying most, not all, perhaps, but most US government websites. And that's sort of a seminal place. I think Joe has the opportunity, such high leverage to start if the goal is to radically improve the user experience of interacting at least. I think the key point of this story here is the Trump administration tapping entrepreneurs to come in and help move the government forward.

1:14:18I'm, you know, despite, you know, if you're a Trump lover or a hater, it doesn't matter. This is about bringing in the smartest people because historically going to work for the government was not what where an intelligent entrepreneur would go. And there's been an incredible shift in that regard, Dave. Yeah, no, you phrased it exactly right. I think when the US government said we're going to have a chief technology officer back under Obama originally. The first two CTOs in the United States had law degrees and there were just buddies of percent. And then, you know, then we created that healthcare .gov site.

1:14:57It was a billion dollars to build a website and then it launched it failed. So I go, okay, why don't we get some real technologists into DC? I can't believe it's actually happening though. It's amazing. Well, these people post -abundance themselves, right? They've made their money, they could be working on their next moonshot or they could be building a moonshot that will hopefully write the battleship or I want to use that term, write the ocean liner of the United States. I think during COVID a lot of people who normally didn't care about government suddenly started caring a lot. They realized how much government can change your day -to -day life, forcing you to stay inside that's pretty extreme in terms of government intervention in day -to -day life.

1:15:44So whether it was right or wrong, they felt like, wow, this really matters. I need to get involved. Yeah. Well, good luck to Joe. I'm sure. I mean, this will have a huge impact. I mean, making something actually usable. This is like when we had ARPINET usable by a few individuals at MIT and Harvard and Stanford and defense industry. And then Mark and Dresden comes and build a layer on top of that with Mosaic. So if Joe can do that, make it easier to use and functional, that would be amazing. All right, here's our debate and discussion for today. I'm going to read this out and I want to hear your thoughts here.

1:16:21So here it is. Will people vote AI to power? So this is a tweet from the Razer X. Because they've tired of corruption and broken promises, AI will provide laws without loopholes and policies based on measurable outcomes. Elections by election trust will shift. Eventually the ballot will include a new option, governance by AI. Citizens will choose it, not out of fear, but hope for fairness. Power won't be inherited or bought. It will be optimized and accountable. Democracy's paradox, people will freely vote to be governed by something beyond human flaws. So, here's the question. Do you believe this?

1:17:07Do you believe that we will be voting AI into power? Dave, what's your position here? Well, I think there's a long history of laws having people's names on them like the Obamacare or Glass -Steel Act or Graham Dodd or you know people I think that the fact that AI is coming up with the idea and writing the law won't change the fact that some someone will put name on it and say, this is my act, but it'll still be AI creating the law under the covers. I think it's inevitable. It's going to happen very, very quickly because the number of things that need some kind of a framework is explosively growing, exponentially growing.

1:17:48And so the traditional process of pass it through Congress, pass it through your local legislature is way too slow to keep up with the rate of change. So this is definitely going to happen, but not quite the way you're not going to vote in AI to be your politician, it'll still look and sound like a person. So I'm going to take the, well, let me be clear, I wish this would happen. I'd love to see this happen. I don't think there's any way in the world short of a revolution or starting a new country off world that we're going to see this happen. And there's lots of reasons. I mean, for me, the most important thing is the entrenched bureaucracies, right?

1:18:25Politicians, bureaucracies, entrenched interests will fiercely resist bringing this on. Courts will strike this down and talk about getting rid of corruption. Corruption doesn't vanish, it just shifts. Corruption will shift from the politicians to the engineers or corporations or states that are manipulating the AI. As much as I'd love to see this happen, I don't think it will. Alex, how about you? I'll take a third position in this debate. I think that the question is non -sensical. This is a very old trope in fiction. So just two examples. If you remember the original version of the day, the Earth stood still, based on the sci -fi novella farewell to the master.

1:19:10The entire premise was that alien civilizations had decided that they themselves, the biologicals, couldn't be trusted to maintain peace. So they ceded all authority to race of robots that police them. One can look back even further. Remember, famously, Henry VI, let's kill all the lawyers. This is a very old trope in fiction. I think it's completely nonsensical. What I expect to happen is humans will merge with the AIs. And so the question then degenerates to will people vote people to power and the answer is yes, but it's sort of vacuous in my mind to ask whether people will be separately from that voting AI power.

1:19:54We will couple and we will, yeah, we'll merge. We'll speciate. All right. So next article on our economy, Jensen announces that he expects $600 billion a year on AI alone. We're seeing a massive continuation of investment. This is a good thing. We're also seeing the AI spend frenzy is propping up the US real economy. And we've seen the impact surging our GDP 1%. I think this is interesting that AI infrastructure will reach $375 billion by the end of this year and is expected to be at a half a trillion in 2026. So the money is flowing out of Silicon Valley, out of sovereigns, out of family offices into the US economy through the piping of AI.

1:20:45I want to pause on this conversation here. This is NASDAQ bubble soaringpass .com records. So I'll read this. Here is a chart looking at the NASDAQ market over the last 25 years. So NASDAQ's market value has surged to an unprecedented level. Now equal to 176 % of the entire US money supply. 129 % of the GDP both ratios are far above the dot com bubble peak signalling stock prices are racing far ahead of the real economy. Let's talk about this for a second. I think it's important. Is this different than the dot com bubble? Alex, any thoughts? I want to pose a thought experiment. So if we were on the verge of artificial superintelligence, What would you Peter Dave expect the ratio of the NASDAQ market cap to the M2 to look like approaching infinity?

1:21:41Ripping upward. Yeah exactly. So this has all the hallmarks of the signature that one might expect at least in the short term one might reasonably expect there to be a Concentration of rents around key publicly traded on the NASDAQ providers of AI infrastructure And then maybe at some point, again, this is not investment advice. This is idle thought experiment. One might expect perhaps at some point, all of these rents become more evenly and profits become diffused throughout the economy. And then maybe we see a plateau at that point. But this is exactly the signature that I would expect to see this ratio to M2 ripping upwards in the context of the eve of superintelligence.

1:22:28Yeah, I completely agree, Alex, is exactly what you would expect to see. I also don't think the .com bubble was really a bubble in the sense that at the peak there, like Amazon was probably a bargain, and then it went down 90 % plus percent in the trough, and then we had 9 .11 right after that, and which turned out to be a great, great buying opportunity in the market. But the internet was real, it was always real, and the valuations, they got They got very high, but some great companies were in there. Then Google got started right at the bottom and then when public in 04 on this chart. I think there's a possibility of the market coming down through panic, but it's not rational because what's going on should drive this to the moon.

1:23:16We also have companies that are real, that are profitable, that have real products and real services that are very different from the dot com world from you know pet food dot com days and errors. So well, I love the service meant to scare you too because here you look at the NASDAQ well the NASDAQ is a bigger fraction of the market now because tech has become so big. And the PDE is a little high of the market as a whole right now, but it's not nearly as you know land issues as chart makes it look. I like Alex's explanation the most. This is a signal that digital superintelligence is arriving. Okay, let's move on to a conversation around health, one of my favorite subjects.

1:23:58So we just saw an announcement out of the UK of an AI stethoscope detecting major heart disease in 15 seconds. And this is a perfect use of technology, right? You put the AI layer right there at this at the scope because in medical school, you are listening carefully to all of these heart sounds and trying to hear a murmur and trying to hear, you know, love dub and variations there of AI can pick it up far, far better than this can. We had a $10 million Qualcomm tricorder ex -price. Of course, everything comes back to Star Trek, Alex, doesn't it? reinventing or making the Star Trek universe real.

1:24:44Such a strange universe, Peter, again, biotech without longevity, very strange universe. Yeah, we'll get to that in a minute, but we had this $10 million competition that Paul Jacobs who's CEO of Qualcomm funded at the time. And to win this competition, you basically had to diagnose 13 different conditions conditions from, you know, anemia, diabetes, pneumonia, sleep apnea. The device had to weigh under five pounds, which is huge. Eventually these things will become embedded. And you have to record five vital signs. So this is a step in the right direction. But, you know, this is great. It's still the beginning, but it portends what's coming next.

1:25:29And one of the things I love, one of the companies I adventure back through bold is called echo EXO. And they build an ultrasound platform, but what was great about this ultrasound machine, think about the kind of device that's a handheld ultrasound that you can look at your baby or look at your carotid artery and so forth. But the key was it had an AI layer that would direct you on where to move the probe. So it would say can you move it upwards, can you rotate it in words, can you hold it there longer? And so if you had this ultrasound probe, you became the physician, the AI guided you to do what you needed to do, and then it analyzed the imagery and gave you a diagnostic.

1:26:14I think that's pretty amazing stuff. Totally. And I would also maybe invoke the statistical folklore that everything is correlated. So I think this is just scratching the tip of what's possible in principle going back to the Star Trek Tri -Corder, the key scenario I would like to see and would hope to see unlocked is mostly using the power of AI, using relatively diminimous hardware, can we simply infer the physiological state of an entire person at a distance from a few key at a distance biomarkers with AI? Well, I mean, this is, you know, AI is going to drive of healthcare out of the doctor's office, out of the hospital, into the home, right?

1:26:56Where you're being sensed all the time and your AI agents are just watching and listening. And it's gonna transform health. And all of this will be cheap and free. It's gonna be free because your company or your insurance company is gonna pay for you to have those sensors in your home, on your body, in your toilet, because it just saves all the cost, right? It's like healthcare insurance is about keeping you healthy, not paying you after you've been sick. So anyway. All right, here's another fun article. I first saw this from Davidson Claire who posted it. Silas Szybion shows striking anti -aging effects and old mice.

1:27:36And I added this because we have a community of folks out there who are interested in the psychoactive molecules. tools. And so check this out. This is a 2025 study that extends cell lifespan by up to 57%. And so in this study, they took aging mice, and you can see on this chart here, that about, you know, 20 weeks in, and this is sort of like late middle age, they started dosing them with psilocybin. And at the end of the experiment, which is 28 weeks long, and mice really just live two years, typically two and a half years, the survival rate of those on psilocybin was 80 % versus 50 % for those who are not on psilocybin.

1:28:22So I'm trying to find out what the dose equivalent for humans are, but just this kind of continuous discovery of different molecules impact longevity. So those are just cool. Yeah. And maybe just to comment Peter on those. I mean, sorry, I read the paper, very interesting paper. I think it's potentially promising. The authors do, I think, a great job of extracting downstream impacts. So not just, I think they were dosing with Silasin, which is a metabolite that normally in humans, other large mammals emerges from metabolizing psilocybin, but they look at the downstream impacts. So there's a certain one expression.

1:29:03There are changes to the way telomeres in chromosomes are managed and regulated. That's a template. I think where ideally one wants all of the anti -aging effects without all of the central nervous system psychedelic effects. And I think, ideally. And so I think that in an ideal world, we find that we were able to extract that template, CNS effects, notwithstanding we subtract those out, and we're able to distill out a template for a non -CNS version of this. I think they'll be enormously impactful. Yeah. I wanted to share something I did on my summer vacation with our viewers and readers. It was something, you know, I'm always experimenting, always, hopefully doing intelligent experimentation.

1:29:50But when I see technology come along that I believe has a pro longevity, high reward, lower risk approach, I'm open to trying it and researching it and then sharing the results. So a couple of weeks ago, I posted this on X. I went and did something called stem cell reeducation. This was the work under Dr. Zowicz, I'm going to share it because for a certain group of people, this will be transformational. So stem cell reeducation for about six hours or so, I was my blood supply, which is typically four liters, I mean, sort of, sorry, five leaders was put through a machine two and a half times. So it was a total of 12 liters of blood were cycled and my immune cells, right, my T cells, macrophysic lymphocytes and so forth were extracted out of that.

1:30:46And I filled up a bag of about 300 CCs, a third of a liter of my white cells. Those cells were then co -incubated overnight with cord blood stem cells. These are stem cells from a newborn and those effectively my immune cells went to school. They were put to a factory reset and that would happen for about a 24 -hour period. The next day I had about 1 .27 billion reeducated immune cells flowed back into my body. My goal is to bring my immune levels, my immune system levels back to a much more youthful state, reduce inflammation, rebalance my immune system, actually pump up my stem cell functionality, and increase my immune function.

1:31:38That's my goal for myself. And we're going to be flowing this technology in through fountain life as well. Our goal is to set this up at our Florida centers. But I want to share, So it was amazing kudos to Dr. Dr. Zau who is pioneered this work at Throne Bio. But I want to show two remarkable videos. If someone in your life is dealing with type 1 diabetes, with alopecia, with Parkinson's, with ALS, this technology is life saving. And what we're doing here, a lot of these diseases turn out to be your immune system attacking your own body. Right? Allopeia, a loss of hair that's attacking the hair follicles throughout your body and you lose your hair supply.

1:32:27This process basically cures that. You regrow all of your hair. Let's take a look at two videos. I'm going to show you first a 17 year old teenager who has type 1 diabetes. This is where immune system is attacking your eyelid cells and your pancreas and you're longer producing insulin. And this young man has developed a neuropathy. And you can see him here prior to treatment. He cannot get out of his bed to get into wheelchair. That's his normal state of function. Now, let's take a look at two months later after the treatment. I mean, it's a resurrection. He has been able to regain his function, his type 1 diabetes has been eliminated.

1:33:13it's extraordinary. Equally extraordinary, this is a fountain life patient who has ALS. ALS is a death sentence for most individuals. And so I want to show you the pre and post. So this is the pre video. His inability to raise his hands above his shoulder, right? This is massively difficult. So now let's look at a couple of days later and his ability to basically regain his function for someone with ALS. I wish we had this for Stephen Hawking while he was still alive. So I don't know if you want to comment on this, but I just wanted to share because I think it's, you know, this is the kind of regenerative medicine that our health span revolution is undergoing right now.

1:34:03Well, it's not only coming on, it's that when you talk about allergies and autoimmune disorders, there are so many interactions going on. It's immensely complex. And it's a perfect fit for you know, AI that is just specific to your body and your results. And so it's so promising that you can actually do something with this immense amount of data we can gather now. I think Peter, you're courageous. And now we know what you did last summer. I'll report on the results. A huge list of markers were collected prior to my treatment. And then I'll report out at one month, three, six, and 12 months. And I'm excited for it.

1:34:48And we'll see where this goes. All right, let's dive into robots energy and transport. I love this. We've seen Nvidia with, I love their name of this. It's the Jetson AGX Thor generation of robot frames, right? Enabling real -time intelligent interaction at the edge. The Jetsons are here. So this delivers 10X more than their previous chipset, Orrin. It runs generative and reasoning AI models at the edge. I love this. I double check these numbers. There's two million developers are using the Jetson Thor development kit right now. Two pedoflops of floating point four FP4 compute. So for reference, that's approximately a tenth of a blackwell or maybe about 30 iPhone 16 pros.

1:35:42So when we talk about what's going on with all the CapEx that's flowing into AI data centers, I don't think that's going to be bottled up in data centers for very long. we're going to see these AI chips, the AI compute literally start to walk out of the data centers onto the streets of the rest of the economy, the so -called real economy. And I think Thor is such an interesting case study in how this AI compute is going to be embodied in humanoid robots, in an ergonomic both energetically and physically ergonomic form factor, and literally walk out on to the streets of the real economy. Yeah, and I really think this is important for all the students struggling with their largely irrelevant curriculum.

1:36:28This is what you should be doing. Your phone or your laptop will do about 30 tariff lobs now. So it's about a hundredth of what you can get from a probably $4 ,000, $5 ,000 in video chips. So get yourself an accelerator on the side or just run, if you go to Andre Carpethi's libraries on GitHub, you can get a really fast start. And a lot of things that were daunting six months ago, you can just void voice code, vibe code them to existence on your laptop and under an hour. And so you really can get your hands dirty with these toolkits. And then all of a sudden you're one of these people that's getting the $100 million signing offer.

1:37:05Like, how did I get from here to there? Well, I just jumped in. I play on my hands dirty. I played. So we've got image. It really is fun. We got image here of Jensen with Brett Adcock CEO figure. We had Brent on stage at the abundance summit last year. We're gonna have at least four, maybe five of the robot CEOs on stage with us at the abundance summit this coming March and by the way You're gonna have the moonshot mates all four of us will have Selene Dave and Alex and myself Onstage at the abundance summit as well will be doing the moonshots sort of recap But WTF just happened in tech in the last three days of the abundance summit in March.

1:37:47If you want more information, you can go to abundance360 .com to learn more about the summit. It is for me, you know, an epic part of my year and my life getting ready for that. China, China's humanoid robot sales expected to exceed 10 ,000 units in 2025. year on year growth of 125 percent. I love this image of robots marching down the street. What could possibly go wrong? But this is just the beginning, right? We're going to see, we heard when we interviewed the CEO of 1X Technologies, Burnt Borneck, you know, he expects to see flowing out of his factories, hundreds of thousands. And of course, we'll see that from figure, we'll see that from Tesla.

1:38:33the prediction of a 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040, it's coming. All right, here's another article. I think this is pretty much Elon classic Tesla is shifting Optimus training strategy to vision only. So we saw this with self -driving. He said, no LiDAR. You know, I introduced the CEO of Lumenar to Elon at a party. And Lumenar makes a LiDAR. and Elon just went, nope, no LiDAR. We're vision only if a driver, if a human driver can drive with like one eye, we should be able to have AI do the same. And so the switch here is no longer a motion capture suits. It's just going to be training robots based upon video recordings of workers doing the work.

1:39:21Alex, you do buy this? Yeah, I mean, obviously this does rhyme with the LiDAR versus non -LiDAR episode with autonomous vehicles, but I think that the real story here is to the extent that you believe that we're about to all be wearing smart glasses, that that's the next major form factor after smart phones. I can only imagine what fleet learning is going to look like when you have billions of people basically doing visual -based motion capture for humanoid robots. It going back to the beginning of this pod when we're talking about the bitter lesson. The bitterest lesson of all, arguably, for humanoid robotics is going to be when we have billions of people wearing smart glasses doing fleet learning to power every single trade, every single manual trade just off of passively watching through the smart glasses.

1:40:10And recording all of human history in detail at the micro level, right? That did come up when we were at one extra -obotic, you know, for a born in his first 10 ,000 -odd units, it's you have to use the fleet learning. There's no option to turn it off. So all the data, telemetry, and everything from your household is getting transmitted to the central learning engine. So there's no human analog for that. Every job is training the centralized version. So if it knocks over a coffee cup in somebody's house, then the other 99 houses that robot doesn't knock over the coffee cup. Can you really hear the question to everybody listening and watching, can you feel the acceleration?

1:40:51and you feel this singularity coming. Oh my God, I can for sure. This is just in today. Apple is mandating all of its manufacturers, all of its tier one suppliers, automate, automate, automate user robotics instead of humans everywhere possible to increase reliability of the product and reduce costs. Alex, a quick comment on this one? Yeah, I think if you think the world finds its way towards a completely redemesticated supply chains, I think robotics is probably the missing X factor for how just as we were discussing earlier, tiling the world's surface, tiling the Earth's surface with inference compute, one can imagine not to distant future where robotics enables essentially every sovereign country to in some sense redemesticate its entire supply chain if it has inference time robotic capabilities to ensure every last bit of manufacturing.

1:41:58Amazing. We'll see this at Amazon. We'll see this at FedEx. We'll see this at all the companies that survive. The companies that don't do this aren't going to survive. I think it's going to be that pretty cut and dry. I'll want to hit one more robot story here, which is the competition between Waymo and Uber. It isn't really competition right now because we see Uber delivering 30 million trips per day while Waymo is at 700 ,000 trips per month. But here's the point of this. One Waymo Robo Taxi outperforms 99 % of Uber drivers on a daily basis in terms of daily trips. Right? These these waymo's are efficient and they're running 24 -7 except for their charge time, of course And so imagine as he's roll out more and more they will displace Uber Uber is trying their own autonomous play They're doubling down in San Francisco.

1:42:57They'll be increasing the fleet by 50 % there They're trying to get into New York. They'll have a lot of resistance there But we'll see these technologies and of course cyber taxi and cyber cab are coming Alex, and remember Peter, at least in America and some other countries, the post -World War 2 consumer automobile arguably created suburbia, created the suburb. What happens to urban planning when the cost of mobility is driven to zero? Do we see suburbs expand? What happens to roads? What happens to parking lots? What do we have to do with all the parking lots? It turns to the ground. I've been crazy.

1:43:35Oh my God. I mean, but again, the elephant in the room on top of all of the hand -ringing that I want to have. Oh, yeah, exactly. The hand -ringing over urban planning is there are so many other changes that are going to happen probably in a much faster time scale than we can replan cities and suburbs that maybe it's all meaningless anyway. My plan for the parking lots are you turn them into vertical farms, right? Each layer of the parking lot is growing a different. Which is great if we need to be densely clustered together. but if we don't need to be densely clustered together, maybe it's something else entirely.

1:44:07And by the way, I talk about the demonization of everything, so driving will be four times cheaper than owning a car. So the poorest people will be show -forward around first and foremost. And then how do you change the cost of living? Well, if you can live an hour from downtown LA where the real estate is cheap and you fly a midnight, an archer midnight EV tall back and forth to work or you don't go to work, you're using Starlink to telecommute or we move to other planets or we upload to the cloud, there are so many different options. I'll take all of the above please. Right, so I'm going to close on on this particular piece which is the US electricity spike begins.

1:44:54So this is a chart of the US consumer price index for electricity and we're beginning to see a spike that started in 2021 and is continuing thoughts on this, Alex. I mean, superficially, price signals convey demand. That's why we have a price -based system. But I think the elephant in the room here is what happens if and when we get to recursive self improvement. We've already seen at least one demand shock, if you will, that was the deep -seek, sputnik moment, if you will. So what happens if and when there's some new algorithmic breakthrough that suddenly radically reduces the compute intensity of frontier models?

1:45:37Could we actually, could the law of straight lines be violated and this burning upward, tearing upward of electricity costs perverse? Yeah, remember electricity is so easy to predict because we know recursive self improvement is here right now, or we, I know it anyway. I think the world will know it very soon. I tweeted this last week right, the human brain operates on 20 watts of energy. And I was playing in GPT -5 and asking what the equivalent compute cost in terms of energy for frontier models. And it's somewhere between 100 ,000 and a million times more energy than the human brain. So this is a massive potential for improvement here.

1:46:19We'll get new chip designs and new strategies and approaches to make it more efficient. So we'll build out all of this energy data centers. And then if we, you know, 10 to the fifth, 10 to the sixth improvement in energy efficiency, that means we get that level of improvement on our total AI capabilities. We can do better than that, Peter. The Lend Hour limit, we can blow past it with reversible computing. human brain is by no means an optimal computer. There are lots of other better ways we could build computer on you. Amazing. Guys, listen, as always, I love spending my time with you. I feel smarter afterwards.

1:46:58I hope everybody listening enjoyed this episode. A lot more coming. We're going to see the release of Gemini 3. We'll be back on to discuss that. We're going to be coming on with a lot more of WCF just happening tech. Hopefully, this is your dose of optimism to counter all of the moaning pessimism coming off of the media channels that people normally consume. I've stopped watching the news. For me, this is the news. The news that really matters that transforms our planet, that is giving us increased longevity to an increase. Sustainable abundance is the word. Alex, some closing thoughts from you that we'll go to Dave.

1:47:39Black hole supercomputers. Okay. That's a closing thought. Which assumes we're not within the black hole right now. I can't stick. We'll follow up on the short -term implications of the Leopold list and a bunch of other things. I think we'll be back online again very quickly within a week with Selene back. There's so much happening now. A bunch of things we couldn't even get to today and then more will happen within within the week. So yeah, just a lot a lot to keep up with, but this is the place to do it. Yeah. I was wearing my occupying Mars shirt and In expectation that we'll discuss starship 10 launch, which was a huge success So congratulations to Elon and the steam the team at SpaceX for that launch It was awesome.

1:48:28If you haven't seen the video, please it is approved that we're living the year 2025 humanity is building fusion going to Mars heading towards longevity escape velocity. You know, only time worksiding in today to be alive is tomorrow. Uh, on that note gentlemen, I have a beautiful week. Talk to you all soon. Every week my team and I study the top 10 technology meta trends that will transform industries over the decade ahead. I cover trends ranging from human under robotics, AGI and quantum computing to transport energy, longevity and more. There's no fluff. Only the most important stuff that matters, that impacts Our lives, our companies, and our careers.

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1:49:40Alright, now back to this episode.

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