DeepSeek vs. Open AI - The State of AI w/ Emad Mostaque & Salim Ismail | EP #146

27:51It's the operator paradigm, whereby OpenAI can now run your compute MacBook or whatever. You can let it take over and it can book your holiday for you That's the next stage and I think they're well set up for that and Their costs should decrease again open AI made three billion of revenue last year They lost five billion of which three billion was training models If you don't need to spend as much training models is good So your pieces as the the Feedback loop of people using the model and because they've got so much there so many users gives them a pretty good edge. I can see that. I think it's that.

28:29And then you use these, they've got like half a million GPUs coming, these B series, the VR series and others. You can now make those go sequential to build even better data and feed that back into models that you optimize and you hyper optimize. Like, classically in computing, things were not parallelized. They were sequential. So we've had this period of these big clusters. Now it's about swarms of models of agent solving tasks Because they've got good enough cheap enough and faster I just the final thing about Tpsique Same with stable diffusion on image back in there good enough fast enough cheap enough It's that trifecta that causes these massive adoption curves You know when when this was announced you heard That Zuck created four war rooms of engineers to try and decipher what was going on and how to utilize it I mean, it really is an AI arms race where everybody is sort of is surfing on top of each other's advances and just accelerating everything.

29:31What I found fascinating and I'm curious about this is the size of their team doing it with relatively, and an open AI had, you know, a 200 -person team during its earliest days as well. Well, how do you think about the size of your team for the ability to create something disruptive? Too big is bloated, small and nimble? I think a core team of about 100 researchers, beyond that it gets bloated. So it's stability. We had 80 researchers and developers, 16 PhDs. And we achieved state of the art and image video every modality, even multilingual. And so we had 300 million downloads on Hugging Face, the most downloaded company, the most popular open source I was there.

30:17Once we scale past that to 150 things started to break down because it is about this rapid iteration, it is about trying new things and research being innovation center versus a cost center. You start to have too much compute and other things as well. And again, opening, I think, did their best work when they were smaller, but they still scaled up and still do good work. But it is a question mark now like it's become an organization and Selim is the expert in. Once you get past that level, it's so difficult to maintain innovation. Selim? Yeah, you end up getting, you end up with a problem of either top down control structures with slow down innovation or you let everybody do whatever they want.

30:59You get a lot of duplication. And so you end up with, you have to manage that tension around it. And there's just a lot more complexity in it. You know, it's fascinating. 150 people is the Dunbar number. Yeah. We're anthropologically. We found that this is a pretty solid, reliable threshold. I do think to back to Emma's earlier comment that opening has a lot more people than they really need because they have so much money, they just throw bodies at things. Now I'd of course, them to be a little bit more efficient. And I also believe that this This is a good thing for the overall market because it's rising tide, lifts all boats.

31:38The, I think we're going to end up with a bulkization though, where, you know, Western companies won't want to use deep secret type models. Like I can't imagine an Indian, major Indian state enterprise wanting to use a model like that for all of the security reasons. And then you have to develop homegrown models and then everybody ends up with their own models in different ways. And so you end up with a splinter defect. We'll talk about that with E -Mod's vision and mission on the intelligent internet. I want to dive down into China for a moment longer because I think part of the announcement wasn't just a cheaper open -source model.

32:19It was this level of innovation coming out of China, which rocked people because I think the majority of the world doesn't see China as sort of the hotbed of AI innovation that it is. Here's an article from Business Insider, Trump's threat on Taiwan. Chips, tariffs could give envy of fresh headache after deep seek. How do you think about all of this, Yimad? Well, I think these are the real reason envy would go down, or maybe Jim Kramer in the previous week saying buy envy, you know, one of these things. I mean, you see, and they want to home show this, they're trying to build chips there, Intel's probably in place in acquisition target.

33:02Oh, it's definitely in play. I mean, it's like it's fresh meat on the table, and everybody's finger had to chop it up. Well, I mean, if you look these chips, they're getting super fast and super good with Nvidia. Like, people talk about AMD. AMD chips are impossible to use. You know, the software isn't there, there's bugs and everything. It takes a few generations to get stable and video chips work. But Chinese chips also work. So the deep sea model API was being run on Huawei Ascend 910 chips, which are a few generations behind in terms of efficiency, but they work. Yeah. Similarly, China has two X scale computers, two of the faster super computers in the world, built in a completely different way, ocean light and Tianhe 3, because they just built at scale and bulk.

33:51Now what the case is here is that this particular thing is they want to increase your production because the means of production and the means of productivity of a society which originally is capital stock, it's industrial capital stock, it's IP, it will be chips. How competitive you are on the world will be, how much compute and intelligence you have. How much energy do you have to throw at it? Yeah, that's a factor of that as well. And so the US has realized this, so it's drill baby drill. It's re -enshore as much of this as possible. And it's create the incentives to do that, which is basically this.

34:28Like they'll take any of that tariff money and they'll put it straight back in to stargate type initiatives, I think. What do you think about stargate? Speak in stargate. I think the $500 billion is the total cost of ownership that's pretty well known. It'll probably like a hundred billion when you back everything out, which feels small these days, it's actually a lot of money. But then when we compare that to the 5G rollout, it's less money than we've spent on 5G. And this is more important than 5G. Compare it to, I mean, it's the order of magnitude of the Los Angeles San Francisco railway, you know?

35:01The mythical Los Angeles San Francisco railway. It's like a kilometer already there. Celine, did you see this article this morning from Reuters, Alibaba releases AI model. it says surpasses deep seek. The unusual timing of Qen 2 .5, Max, Max has released points to the pressure Chinese AI startup deep seek, deep seek meteoric rise in the past three weeks has placed on not just overseas rivals, but also its domestic competition. You know, this speaks to the democratization, right? I mean, the everybody will end up creating a bunch of models. I think we'll end up with a bunch of very specialized models.

35:43I remember Eric Schmidt's comment that you'll end up with a specialized AI that's the world's best physicist. And one that's the world's best biotech person. And that person could be replicated. That AI can be replicated infinitely. And so now what do you do with deep specialty on the human side? And that I think is the bigger question around a lot of this stuff. And the models are just going to keep getting better and better as we've seen over time. I mean, I think E -MODs comment around what to do with labor and seeking capital is a really, really profound question. That's, I think, the really structurally from a societal perspective, that's the question I think we should be spending a lot more time on as a global, as a global intellectual forum of how do you navigate this going forward?

36:30Because this changes everything. Yeah, the model is, again, it's good enough cheap enough fast enough, right? And in fact, the other quen model, the VL model, outperforms Anthropic and GPT -40 on visual understanding. And the ones they have coming next are the ones that control your computer. But anything that can be done on the other side of a screen, this year the AI can do better for pennies. So there's a lot of conversation going on across Silicon Valley, across the White House about... And I'm speaking to Ray Dalio next week about this as well. The US versus China AI wars. I mean, there are two levels of competition going on right now, right?

37:15Competition between companies. And there's six, seven, eight major AI companies out there that are vying for number one position and then competition among nations. You've got Saudi Arabia wanting to be at the top of the stack, committing hundreds of billions of dollars, followed by Qatar and the Emirates. But you got US and China really going at it. And the question of, this is a winner -take -all type of game. If you develop a digital superintelligence before your corporate or national competitor does by just a little bit, it could be devastating. You mind, how do you think about US versus China in that regard?

38:08Well, I think this is the heading into a future now where I'd say every single AI leader that I could think of says that AGI is three to five years away. But we just had Sam say it's this next year. Yeah, but let's say within the next three to five years, every leader, we're talking about Dario, Demis, everyone, myself, whoever. That's consensus, that's what you mean. That's crazy if you think about it, right? Like everyone says it's coming. And those are the concept of AGI ASI as this pivotal action moment where one entity would have the ability to shut down China. You can just turn it off, you know.

38:46So pivotal act is you build AGI first and then it turns it off. That might happen and we still don't know about that, which is why you now you start preparing for it. Just like Sunda Pitcha at Google said, why are we building out all these GPUs? Because we can't afford not to, you know. And that's the game theory of that. You can't afford not to build an AGI now if everyone else is building it. Before AGI though, there's like an In AGI we can think of as a mega chef that can come up with any recipe and outcompete all of us. What we have right now this year are amazing cooks that can follow recipes and do jobs better than humans.

39:21The robots from Unitry yesterday doing the Chinese dance with the fans, I don't know if you saw that. Robotics is getting to the point where they can build how they're better. I'm going to have the Unitry robots at the abundance summit. And I mean, it's incredible. There's $16 ,000 for one of their mid -tier levels. Yeah, that's $1 .50 an hour. What's that? That's $1 .50 an hour when you're making a depreciation of energy costs and everything. I have it. I have it pegged at $0 .40 an hour. I mean, it's insane. Yeah. It really is. I think my kids will buy one just to clean up the room. And that's the most expensive it'll ever be, right?

40:00You know, when you talk about AGI in three to five years, let me get to Mike's soapbox question that I ask, what do you mean by AGI? The best kind of framing I've seen is those multiple tests like the wasniac test and the Ikea test, etc. What's your framing on what do you consider to be AGI? I think it's probably a complex system that can outperform a team. I think before that I had this idea of ARI, artificial remote intelligence. you can't tell if it's a human or a computer on the other side as your remote worker. Because that's the most natural way that this first start's coming in, right? Like, you call a company and they put a bunch of people.

40:37We have the technology now that you can have a Zoom call with someone and it could be 100 % a robot. Yeah. Oh, hey. Your worker is plugged into Slack. It joins you on Zooms. I mean, right now we're living in a world of distributed work force. And if you've got an AGI that is able to literally plug in, take a role fully, and have read all of the email traffic, all the Slack traffic, and be up to speed instantly. That's an exciting, an exciting world. That's an exciting world, but at the same time, that's the first level of disruption, right? Because you don't need any more BPO outsourcing, the nature of the firm will change because they will be super chefs.

41:20So, cooks, they will not make mistakes or they will learn from their mistakes once. They have low communication overhead. The next step is teams of that. So independent, agentec, they have a task and they can get resources towards that. This is why Wyoming's downlaw and other things get very interesting. And the step beyond that is this ASI thing that we can't redefine where there's a big takeoff, where it has beyond human team organizational capabilities. like it can invent incredibly quickly. Well, what I'm thinking about is going to be the impact on physics and on biology and on pure science taking us way beyond.

41:58You know, Dario was on video, I think it was from Davos saying, and I know you believe this, you might because we've had these conversations, then the next five years will make a hundred years worth of progress in medicine and biotech and double human lifespan. I mean, that's pretty extraordinary commentary to be made making public. Yeah. And I think one of the most fascinating things of the last week is this, when you use 01 and you dump a bunch of stuff in, you can't do file uploads and other things, which is a bit annoying. It's not that creative, but it's thorough. With R1, because it hasn't been tuned and made safe for others, it's actually very creative.

42:39So someone actually took a code base for R1 and then made it double the speed in terms of performance. Other people have put together academic papers and it's synthesized those into new reinforcement learning algorithms. And that's an indication of now, maybe if like the downside is maybe these things got less safe. The upside is maybe they get more creative. And again, these are the levels. Are you an amazing cook? That's the disruption of the labor market, right? Especially anyone behind the screen. Are you an amazing chef? That takes us into this AGI as a team ASI kind of concept. And again, that feels not three to five years away for me.

43:14That feels much quicker given all these exponentials and very few people are preparing for that. Yeah. You know, so again, the point I opened up with, which is we're going to see disruption after disruption and I, you know, are financial markets aren't ready for this as well. You know, we're going to see the energy... I mean, I think one of the implications we're going to see with AGI, ASI is going to be new forms of energy sources, which will potentially topple our petro dollars and destabilize government revenues. So, we have fascinating and massive implications coming. Well, have you ever seen that chart of GDP per capita versus energy per capita?

44:02Yeah. It's basically a straight line. It correlates with health as well in lots of other things. That can be completely disrupted because to make the best film studio in the world, you can do it anywhere with solar power. That's what I'm kind of talking about. You could have science happening in Guatemala or anywhere like that. It's an uplift of global IQ and aggregate, if this technology proliferates versus this brain drain that we've had out to the West classically. And again, you think about your capital stock, your intellectual and physical capital stock. It's massively distributive and our economies are not set up for that because productivity was a function of labor, which was a function of energy.

44:49That correlation is about to break for the first time ever. I agree. I think, you know, we're moving from an energy economy to an information economy, and now the data sets and the information you have will be paramount. I think that we need to start asking really big philosophical questions like, what do we want all this to do and what do we want to be like and how do we, what are the activities and functions we want to be doing as human beings, as the job market disintegrates in front of us.

45:20I still have my trepidations about human or robots, etc. but once they show up and have feedback loops and have built -in LLMs into their circuitry, you have a fully functioning robot that can do lots of varied things. You kind of suddenly don't need a gardener or plumber or lots of other kind of things. Using those examples is a tongue and cheek, because those are probably the ones you need the most. But there are many, many functions, aircraft maintenance, right? That will be done much better and much more precise. Because of the access to information, we talked with a lot of episodes ago about the fact that if there's an avatar of you or me, Peter, it's much more reliable because it's got full access to everything we've ever said, rather than what we can hold in our brains.

46:08Far more charming, far more compelling. Yes, even better looking. And so how do we navigate that? I think this is where you might, you're kind of philosophical bent towards this becomes really, really important. And I'd love you to take on where this goes. The displacement of labor is just a starting point in all this. Before we get into that, because I want to go deep in the second half of this pod today into Emoj's point of view there, I want to hit on a couple of questions, Emoj. What do you think is the best case scenario for AI this year in 2025? What are we going to see by the end of the year that people look back and say, okay, that was amazing, that was fantastic.

46:55What's your thoughts? That's case. I think the video technology has got to the point we can remake Game of Thrones season eight, so that'll be quite good. So, just focus on that. How dead is Hollywood? I completely rewired. Again, the energy of making a movie is massory reduced. But at the same time, at least people can maybe be more creative. Like the video game industry went from 70 billion to 180 billion over the last decade and the average score of my critic went up 5%. IMDb score, 6 .3 on average, Hollywood's gone from 40 billion to 50 billion. So maybe it transforms, maybe it's new types of media.

47:33I mean, I'm asking you some questions. When am I going to see a conversation like this, you know, Jarvis, please make me a movie that is a continuation of the Star Trek season five and have me in there as one of the actors. We have all the technology for that now. It hasn't been put together. So if you use something like Kling's feature reference you can take a scene from that and it can generate new scenes we can do storylines. The average which film shot his 2 .5 seconds, it's dropped from 10 seconds a few decades ago. And we can do 2 .5 seconds perfectly, now with almost perfect control. So let's say it'll take a year or two now before anyone can do this.

48:24Suitably dedicated studio could do this by the end of the year for a full episode. In saying, okay, so what else have we seen this year in 2025? I think music's pretty much solved on the media side. Like if you use the new Suno, UDO, the next generation they have coming as insane. I think on medicine, we're at that above human level and we trounce them on empathy. Medical chat bots for everyone to help them through their journey and a mental health in particular, I think we've reached that point. Where the models have gone from not good enough to good enough, we could transform mental health, I think that we're very important.

49:05I think you will see the first few breakthroughs in science with novel things generated with the aid of O3 type models, this test time inference. I want to call it think for it. I think that's a better way of putting it, but the models think longer. And I think those are probably the biggest real impacts. Maybe Siri is not going to be so bad anymore. I can't wait for Siri not to suck. And for Alexa to actually be useful. I'm shocked that Amazon has not, they were originally going to put an anthropic behind Siri and a beside behind Alexa and really powered properly. That sound, it looks like it's gotten delayed.

49:44Well, they're building out a million trainings with their specialists chips. So good luck to them on that one. All right, let's flip the script here and say, what's the worst potential outcome for 2025? Complete destruction of the BPO market, which will reverberate out. So the business processing outsource, because again, when you use operator now, there's technologies that take over your computer. It's a bit rubbish now, but it's the worst it'll ever be. Anything on the other side of a screen, I think this year is the year, gets displaced, paralyzed on that. And again, this is actually leaning into this whole doge type thing.

50:19Get the workers back in. Being in person is going to be good for your job right now, because if you're a mo, you'll be the first to go. That's a really important point and define BPO for folks who haven't heard that term. Business process outsourcing, outsourcing to India or the call center workers or the programmers. like the AI is better than any Indian program, or pretty much, that's outsourced right now. And so you will have impact on those economies right now. Then the remote workers in the US. I'm gonna see the headlines in the Indian times right now. Emod again says. Yeah, I think it's very well.

50:55I think it happens in two phases. I think phase one, you have this massive downside. And then phase two, the really good ones, just show up and just generate a ton more code because there's just so much more code to be written. But I think it's going to have a really detrimental effect. Any kind of software maintenance, support systems, etc. I'll go at the window very quickly. Yeah, I had Mark Banyoff on this pod a couple weeks back. And he was saying with Agent Force, you know, he's not hiring new engineers. And he's repurposing old engineers. And he's increased productivity 30%. And that's just going to skyrocket from there.

51:34Yeah, if you look at lovable Bolt cursor, like that takes you up to a decent level and they can build whole apps and stacks and they'll just get better and better as the base models get better and better. In fact, one of the things we started to do for non -engineers who apply to work at our company is they have to do a 30 -minute cursor course. This kind of AI -assisted IDE. It doesn't matter what they are, HR or anything. And then they have to tell us how do they view the world change. So what is that course teach somebody? How to build an app for HR, how to build an app for anything. Just by talking to it, it's building the app almost live.

52:10You can do that today in ChatGPT with Canvas. You can build a React app live. You could replicate the entire Wii, Screen, or build a HR application or generate it. And you're just talking back and forth. That base level of capability increase will cause a real alignment. But the downside we're talking about is there's real jobs and real people that have to think what's next. and they have to become experts in AI assisted. And they have to be in person, otherwise you're going to start to get disrupted. And I think that has to be a headline. I remember Peter lost some 38 % of IIT placements in India, or I'm close to the top university.

52:46It was crazy. It was. Yeah. And it is... It's one encouraging thing I've seen to be... If the economy of India and the major way. India, I'm sorry. one interesting thing I've seen is in the US we're hiring much much fewer top flight MBAs. Hopefully, and lawyers too. Yeah, Harvard is way down on its employment actually this year, isn't it? But this is just this is just the beginning. I don't think people are ready for the level of societal disruption that's coming. We can process it. It's because it's lots of little S curves, right? Or across just like every teacher in the world had to ask, can we use chat GPT for our homework?

53:33What's our general, every single HR department, every engineering department is asking the same question. You know, and it's still not mainstream, but clearly it's hitting the headline more and more and more and more. And there's this disconnect behind, I mean, it was like, again, it was a bit like COVID. Those of us in the know, we saw it coming. And we were like, this is a step change. Until Tom Hanks got it, the world didn't realize, like what is the Tom Hanks moment? Is deep -seek the Tom Hanks moment? Is it gonna be something else? It's coming. And it could be very positive for the economy on the other side.

54:07It could be definitely be very negative for a lot of people. Who's got 13 years ago, I had my two kids, my two boys. And I remember at that moment in time, I made a decision to double down on my health. Without question, I wanted to see their kids, their grandkids, and really, you know, during this extraordinary time where the space frontier and AI and crypto is all exploding, it was like the most exciting time ever to be alive. And I made a decision to double down on my health. And I've done that in three key areas. The first is going every year for a found upload. You know, found is one of the most advanced diagnostics in therapeutics companies.

54:49I go there Upload myself digitize myself about 200 gigabytes of data that AI system is able to look at to catch disease at inception You know look for any cardiovascular and cancer and your near degenerative disease any metabolic disease These things are all going on all the time and you can prevent them if you can find them at inception So super important. So found is one of my keys. I make it available to the CEOs of all my companies, my family members, because you know, I help is a new wealth. But beyond that, we are a collection of 40 trillion human cells and about another 100 trillion bacterial cells, fungi, a viral.

55:31And we, you know, don't understand how that impacts us. And so I use a company in a product called Viome. And Viome has a technology called Metatranscriptomics. He was actually developed in New Mexico, the same place where the nuclear bomb was developed, as a biodefense weapon. And their technology is able to help you understand what's going on in your body to understand which bacteria are producing, which proteins, and as a consequence of that, what foods are your super foods that are best feed -a -eat? Or what food should you avoid? Right? What's going on in your oral microbiome? So I use their testing to understand my foods, understand my medicines, understand my supplements, and viome really helps me understand from a biological and data standpoint, what's best for me?

56:27And then finally, you know, feeling good, being intelligent, moving well is critical, but looking good when you look yourself in the mirror, saying, you know, I feel great about life. It's so important, right? And so a product I use every day twice a day is called one skin developed by four incredible PhD women that found this 10 amino acid peptide that's able to zap senile cells in your skin and really help you stay youthful in your looking appearance. So for me, these are three technologies I love and I use all the time. I'll have my team link to those in the show notes down below. Please check them out.

57:08Anyway, I hope you enjoyed that. Now back to the episode. Let's jump into safety. This was an article that came out today in Fortune. OpenAI's safety researcher quits, Clim AGI races as two -risk eating gamble. And I'll read the quote, an AGI race This is a very risky gamble with huge downside. No lab has a solution to AI alignment today, and the faster we race, the less likely that anyone finds one in time. Even if a lab truly wants to develop AGI responsibly, others can still cut corners to catch up. It may be disastrous. This is from Stephen Adler who left OpenAI. and he's one of the many individuals who's left OpenAI on this concern.

58:01Selim, where do you come out on this first off and then let's go to Emoid next? I have my standard soapbox that I've been saying for a while, which I don't see a way of regulating or navigating or putting guardrails on this in any way, shape or form. You'd have to police every line of code written. right? The only way to do it I think would be to develop an AI that would watch other AI's and see, you know, you end up with a kind of an arms race, which is what it's always been on the security side. However, this one is really crazy. You know, you might have been probably been tracking truth terminal where the AI's are faking out humans and telling humans to go created, token for them and making money off it, etc.

58:48It's nuts. I think the genie's out of the bottle, in my opinion. You think? Like way out. It's like climate changes. It's too late to try and stop it. You try and figure out what do you do to mitigate it? And that would be my view. You might have what's your perspective? Yeah, I mean, the only thing they can stop a bad AI is a good AI, right? Unfortunately, this is the case when we're the gun. They will have guns, The AI safety discussion has always been because we couldn't imagine what an ASI, the super intelligence looks like, whether or not it will be beneficial or not beneficial. In order to control or guide something that's more powerful than us, and more capable than us, anything is to reduce its freedom, but that doesn't seem like it will make much sense if we're saying that it can break through any freedom.

59:34This is the kind of test that like Eliyzya Kodowsky and others did. You've set up this thing whereby the AI is out to get you. can it convince you to let it out? They're failing the tests already. And they're failing them on models that are already available. The restriction against this was, well, maybe the models need to have a billion dollars to make and a trillion GPUs. I don't think anyone believes that anymore. I mean, I go back to this old story about how fallible humans are, right? Where if you leave a USB stick in a parking lot, 40 % of our employees will pick up that stick and stick it into the electric computer.

1:00:15If you print the logo of the company on the stick because that's really hard to do, 98 % will plug it in to see what's on it and the boom you're done. So I don't see any mechanism on the human fallibility side of protected against that side of it. Well, if you look at where these models are going, it'll be swarms of models and that for me, that's just a botnet, right? So even if you regulate and restrict in tier one, tier two, who gets Nvidia GPUs, it doesn't matter. You'll have swarms of botnets if there's bad actors. The question I think that the AGI people will be looking at is existential risk.

1:00:47And so for me, the only way to mitigate against this is you make really amazing models that are aligned to human flourishing available to everyone, as a public infrastructure and a public good. Because those models could be co -opted, but you can build a very resilient, dynamic system that can protect. And then there's less incentive to have this arms race because you're cut corners. I think you might have heard you speak about that before that. I've, as we have kind of gained this out in my head and talked to other people. That's the, you've hit on the, I think is the only path through this. The only path is to create benevolent AI's faster and more powerfully and make them available.

1:01:30I think it has to be an open source infrastructure. Because then it sets defaults. Like people only use a few data sets in these models, but if there's a problem in the data sets, like the dependency tree, right? Like we've seen these attacks on open source and our infrastructure because the half -throb bug, for example, one library in this whole stack of software is suddenly co -opted and then our passwords are at risk. We've got to build this new knowledge cognitive infrastructure show well, communally, and then make it available to reduce these game theoretic dynamics. You know, I'm going to go back to the commentary of Sam Altman saying, ah, a new competitor, that's invigorating to us.

1:02:09We're going to go faster. Going back to safety in these companies, I am curious of your thoughts. I mean, I know the ethos behind Google and the work that they were doing in Sundar's point of you. We can't release this until it's ready and we have a plan. And then of course, chat GPT blows the plan up. And now there's a race going on. We've got GROC3 just being released. And Elon will never play for number two. So what are your thoughts about Elon's thesis of maximally truth seeking and maximally curious as a training objective for an AI system? Not sure what that means to be honest, I'm actually like Elon.

1:03:03That seems like mad scientist territory to be honest if you get it wrong. It's very interesting. Facebook did that study where they had 600 ,000 users and they said, if you see sadder things will be post -satellites. Now that's a maximally curious AI type of thing. And guess what they made 300 ,000 users sad and they posted sadder things. I think if Eric Schmidt had this recent book with Henry Kissinger about Genesis called, we had this thing, Doxer, you know, an underlying agreements of humanity. And you have the faith traditions, you have other things. What is our common moral basing? No AI is agrounded in that right now.

1:03:39It turns out they are actually remarkably good at theology, but is that their grounding? No, maybe we need to build it along those lines to reflect what the culture thinks, because if you have slightly undefined things around curiosity, truth, synch, then it doesn't really care about helping you do your taxes. That won't be a subjective thing. So I think we need to categorize AI's in different parts, but everything got muddled in one. Like everyone have an AGI, a chef in their pocket. it. No, everyone needs a chef. We all need cooks, but we need some chefs for humanity. I'm curious what a maximum lead truth seeking and curious AI does for my taxes.

1:04:16It's like, I don't know. Hey, is this, was this cryptocurrency actually reported or not? Well, it's like Marvin, the paranoid Android from Hitchhiker's Dutch League. I'm like, you know, I am brainless of a universe. So you can do this. Yes. In the past, when science fiction writers have dealt with this, the AI's own robots invariably developed their own religion. Well, we saw that recently, right? There was, I forget the name of the company that unleashed 100 agents in Minecraft and the agents developed their own economy and their own religions. and then the priest was the most, oh was the richest because he was selling dispensations and then...

1:05:03Yeah, actually there is something funny about that. So the Twitter handles God and Satan now on Twitter, a run by an AI, so now's research, have done that and it's got its own meme coin. And I know that's gonna go the dispensation route. It's kind of under the radar, I know it's gonna take off. You know, it's interesting, Nothing's nothing's changed in a thousand years. We're still we're still running the same basic You know this is a comment for my dad where he's I was talking about fixing civilization He said we haven't civilized the world. We've materialized the world We're tribal Apes operating clans with more and more powerful tools.

1:05:42We still have to do the work to actually civilize ourselves So I just want to close out a open AI safety issues Emod, how do you feel about, are these companies paying lip service or are they truly trying to create safe AI systems or put guard rails up? None of these people want to kill everyone, right? That's a good thing. That's a good thing. We start with that. It's not like, haha, you know, but the way they believe they can do that is by building it first. That's it. Nothing else matters because I am the only one that can do this right. You know, like is that Silicon Valley thing with Gavin Belson?

1:06:27I can't want to be in a world where someone else makes the world better than me, you know? The first. And if you look at OpenAI, OpenAI is a consumer company that's can optimize for consumer engagement. What is your reinforcement learning function? What is your objective function? Google's one and Meta's one is ads and ads and manipulation. OpenAI is basically a consumer company that's going to a short to AGI. There's nothing about humans in there. There's no representation. Where is the thing for humanity? You can have it as your mission statement, but do you trust humans? OpenAI would never trust Indians to have GPT -4.

1:07:09By Indians, I mean just anyone, right? And so you're representing your constituency and your constituency is very small. So we should expect them to become more and more consumer andthropic will continue to be closed and do their thing. Google flips back and forth but now they're releasing the models. You stop worrying about the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns and then use catch up with everyone. And now it is a race with these race dynamics whereby you're going to cut corners. The models are good enough to stop the most egregious classical mistakes. But we're not really worried about those, right?

1:07:40Like sometimes it tells people to do bad things. What you're worried about is it wiping us out and you won't know that until you get there. It's not like it's going to tell you. And in fact, the really worrying thing is we already see the models lying. Yeah, this is I think the really unnerving part where they're faking out the humans. So, you know, one of the conversations we had at the abundance summit last year was around digital superintelligence. And, you know, there's blurry lines between what is AGI and what is digital superintelligence, et cetera. But there is a question, would you rather live in a world in which there is a digital superintelligence or would you rather live in a world where there isn't one?

1:08:31And it's a question about, you know, So we humans are still running archaic software and on neocortex. And we're going to make and continuously make stupid decisions based on our cognitive biases. And will a digital superintelligence enable us to survive ourselves? Yeah, I mean, this is the topic of Dary Amado from Anthropics. I say, I've watched over my very scenes of loving grace, right? right? Like humans are not aligned. There is massive suffering in the world. We are prisoners of our own minds effectively. Can AI bring that forward, especially if it's a line I think yes, is the answer. Basically like, yeah, I mean like nothing else has worked, right?

1:09:19And ultimately the best thing is when we're surrounded by people that support us, right? In the right way, not blowing smoke out of our butts or whatever. We can have that now. everyone can have that because we need to self -regulate and self -stabilize. Now, the way that I see it is that there's only two ways this ends up. It's like really bad or really good. I don't really see anything in between because the nature of our interaction with information in each other will be changed forever by this technology within the next decade. Yeah, that's what my P -Dume is 50%. No. No. It's 50. I'm tracking P -Dume.

1:09:59When I interviewed Elon last year at abundance, it was 80 % positive, 20 % negative. At Insality, it was 90 % positive, 10 % negative. But no one likes to hear the truth, which is 50. Well, this is the funny thing. A lot of people say it's like 10%, 20%. That's Russian roulette. It's literally right in the light. Stop making this. But if you kind of look at the, I categorize this as the Star Wars versus Star Trek future. And you can see this in the current discourse. Are you looking at a world of abundance, which is positive sum? Or are you looking in a world of competitiveness, which is negative sum?

1:10:40Because when you're in a negative sum environment, you have unstable national equilibrium. And this is where you lead to cutting corners and everything. When you're a positive sum, then you have stable environments. And again, style track for all this issues, how stable environments where style wars definitely does not. Cycles of destruction. I prefer the Star Trek versus Mad Max, because I think it's a little highlighted a bit more, but it's the same conversation. E -Mine, I want to jump into your recent work. And really, please open the kimono as much as you're willing. This is a paper that you wrote when capital no longer needs labor.

1:11:17How does labor gain capital? You also have spun up your latest company Intelligent Internet and tell us about this paper and about Intelligent Internet as far down the rabbit hole as you're willing to go. I'd love to see what your creative mind has been spawning. Yeah, thanks. Yeah. Took a bit of time off and sort of been thinking about like, I think this is the biggest question of our time for humans because you know, there's this thing of how do you create happiness? There's Japanese concept of it. I do what you like, do you get up, do where you are, where you believe you're adding value and other people do to people need that progression.

1:11:55There's discussions of you, B .I. and others, but as we discussed earlier on in this pod, anything that can be done on the other side of the screen can be done better, faster, and cheaper by a computer this year. Pretty much anything, be it design, be it taxes, all of these things. Aren't work, film, addiction. And you can't tell it's not a human. Again, this is this ARI, this Turing test for remote workers. Then in a few years, it's only restricted by the number of robots we can produce. The number of motorcycles and cars we produce is 70 million each year. So let's say robots are similar. You get that disruption.

1:12:30You said Peter, you estimated 40 cents an hour for an R1 unitary robot. And that will be as capable as a human probably in a year or two. Optimus will be the same. This is the biggest crisis that we have coming because it's an unemployment, under -employment question of meaning. When a technology can do the work better than you can, what is your meaning? And how do you acquire labor when capital doesn't require you anymore? When Ford had his car, he wanted to pay everyone so they could afford four cars. Companies don't care about that as much anymore. So when kind of looking at that, I was like there were various science fiction futures that were outlined here, like things from culture by banks to the Star Trek and the others.

1:13:18We're probably moving into an abundance, posterity economy, but can we make sure this is evenly distributed? Can we enable people to have a universal basic AI? So it's up to them how they do this? And then the further question is what is meaning in this? Because the existing economic structures break down. And there's a very practical example of that. Let's take the Fed. There'll be lots of discussions about the Fed today's the Fed cut rates and other things like that. The Fed's mandate is interest rates inflation unemployment. You cut interest rates that adjusts inflation and employment. That's gone.

1:13:55The actual mandate of the Fed in the next five years completely doesn't work anymore. more. Because you can't interest rates, what does it mean? It means people will buy more GPUs, more confused, right? I'm a robot. More robots. That went impact unemployment. You'll have massive inflation and deflation cycles. So the very basis of our economy is messed up. And so that's why I was like, what can we do to help with that? That's why there's constant and touch internet. Give universal basic AI to everyone. Goals down to data sets, models systems. We figure out ways to coordinate that but put this into every nation and build teams that think about what is the future of healthcare, education, maybe faith, government, politics and get everyone to work in the open to build an open infrastructure because we have lots of questions that we don't have answers to and human talent augmented by computers are probably the only way we're going to figure this out but we need to join it together because the problems we face in the UK or US are similar to Spain, India, everywhere.

1:14:59So we've got to create that global network. I think there'll be, there's two layers to this. There's the re -creation of meaning because you know, for the last few hundred years, your occupation, your job title was the meaning you had in your life. And as we stripped that away, people have to find new models for meaning. Entrepreneurship is a rising class because of that people can find their own meaning. We talk WebMTPs all the time. I think the second layer is how do you just ensure basic supply chains of goods and services so that you have bread on the grocery store shelves and clean water, et cetera, et cetera.

1:15:37And I think governments are going to be very stretched to figure this out in an age of potentially malicious AI's that can spread this information and really damage infrastructure via the autonomous remote monitoring stuff that you'll be able to do. I think those two or those two buckets have to be addressed. I don't know if it's a species if we can navigate through those in an effective way. Certainly our leadership has no mechanism to deal with this because either either not aware of the problem or they don't understand the scale of what's coming. Yeah, and one of those two disqualifies most leadership and most legislators around the world from this So it's a sticky problem.

1:16:22It's gonna have to be done by smart citizens groups Except for that will double navigate this. I'm concerned about the meaning issue is well in a in a huge way I think we're heading towards a world of what I call technological socialism where technology is taking care of you it is feeding you, it is educating you, it's taking care of your health, it's all free. You don't need to do much of anything. So how do you, we all know that a video game that's way too easy is boring and you stop playing. And so when life gets boring, how do we keep humans engaged? We need struggle and we need meaning in our lives.

1:17:07I think you know Isaiah Berlin had this conceptualization of positive liberty versus negative liberty positive liberty was the freedom to believe in isms fascism communism religion now they tended to end up quite bad so he postulated negative liberty they're free from anyone telling you what to do which led to this laissez -faire capitalism and other things and people find meaning in their brands and these narratives and stories it strikes me that as we move into this next phase these historical things are coming back in force. We're seeing the polarisation of the media and the political glass.

1:17:39People are going to sign up to more and more extremist ideologies, exclusionary, negative, some ones, unless we can give the positive views of the future, the future of abundance of collaboration and more, because otherwise you're stuck in your local maxima. Most of these elections have been, I want change because fundamentally how many people believe in the American dream or the British dream or the Spanish dream or the Indian? dream anymore. People aren't actually saying positive visions of the future because people don't believe you anymore. They don't believe of politicians. We need those positive visions.

1:18:16We need the Star Trek utopian, not the Star Wars. When we've looked at we had as a community, did some look at history of when societies or certain pockets meet abundance, Peter, what do they do? Right? So the Romans take over Europe, what do they do? What happens when the Bougles take over India and they have relative abundance? And it turns out they end up in food, art, music, and sex as for major activities. And then you find ways of doing creativity because human being struggle for the next level of things always. You know, we're so built in for that. So there's some optimism in that world.

1:18:58I can't think of a play. So listen, Stephen Kotler in our writing age of abundance, it's our follow on. And the big element of the book we think about is how do we up level human ambition in a world in which we're gods and we are incredibly god. Like how do we up level our ambitions that make it worth living, make it challenging for us? You know, one of the questions. What's that? It was just a quick comment here. Stuart Brand, the future was used to say, we are as gods, we might as well start acting like it. And he said that in 1968. No, we're more godlike than ever. So do we all revert into a video game world?

1:19:42Do we all get BCI? You know, this year at the abundance summit, I've got Max Hodeck coming, I'm not I don't know if you know Max, he was a co -founder of Neuralink with Elon and he's got a new company called Science, which is doing extraordinary work, like 100, 10 ,000, fold more neural connections and bandwidth on a BCI that we're seeing with neural link. Can we add another corpus -colossum -like connection to the cloud that allows us to couple with AI as AI is taking off versus be left behind like the movie her. Yeah I mean like these things are coming quick and we have to answer those questions like even this weekend I had six people I now call me and said I'm having a crisis of meaning because of R1 once I saw the logic and the way it was thinking right that's going to happen more and more but then again like said we have to think about the massive people and the human side of this.

1:20:43I think our current systems take away our agency is slow dummy eye and one of the main thing here is reintroducing the belief of agency. I can't do this. It can't do that. With this technology, there's nothing that, well, there's a lot more you can do because it raises the floor for everyone, which is from my perspective, why we had to get into the hands of everyone, and they make them feel like there are participants in this. Because other part of this is it seems remote. I think this is another part of this shock that we've had in the last few days, right? How are you involved in AI? You need to have nuclear clear reactors and remember like, giant chips and this and that.

1:21:20All of a sudden you can run it on your smartphone. You know, it's very humanizing and this again, why I'm a big believer in open source to have that. I love that. I love that as even a title of this, of this part, the crisis of meaning. You know, it's incredibly powerful. Let's talk about your new company. How much can you tell us on intelligent internet? I don't know if you want to talk about your tokenization plans. I don't want to open the combo no before it's ready, but I would love to hear your vision of what you're building. Yeah, so like in the previous company, we got up to the eight digit revenue, hundreds of million model downloads, great teams.

1:22:06But I was like the API and SaaS revenues are probably going to go down to nothing because intelligence gets commoditized intelligence to cheap to measure. But someone's got to build the AI for the full stack of cancer that helps you through your entire cancer journey and organizes all the cancer knowledge. We have the computer to do that. Why is no one doing it? Same for autism, same for education. Once we build this once and I think, was it Stuart Grant who said, pace layering of knowledge? You have knowledge of humanity or common knowledge that impacts everything that's regulated and meaning education, healthcare, government.

1:22:39Why do we organize that information into knowledge and then make a system that can get why is and make that available to everyone. So I was like, this strikes me as we need large amounts of compute, that sounds like Bitcoin, you know. And the amount of compute you all use is inevitable. So use that to secure an institutional, gradual currency. We'll have details of that coming soon. But then in the whole crypto space, most of which is rubbish and there's increasing demand for At the start, back in the day, you know, 12 years ago, 13 years ago, it was all, you can mine on your laptop, you can mine on your smart GPUs, right?

1:23:16Then it became about capital. And do we really want to live in a world where capital determines everything yet again? I was like, what matters is people, so what if we can create a mining mechanism where the people can create currencies as well? And use that to fund all of this universal basic AI. So we'll have to you tell us about all that side of things where anyone can participate and be a part of it Because people want to be a part of it give their data give their knowledge and we'll organize all this with dedicated teams for cancer autism education Health government that think about gentry my first release everything open source But I think it is important to have this Someone needs to go and just do it because once we have a cancer model that forms human dots and empathy and works on a smartphone No one will ever be a learner that cancer journey again And that's half the world we'll get cancer.

1:24:05Yes. Once we have a supercomputer dedicated entirely to organizing the world's cancer knowledge and making it freely available, anytime a new paper comes out, we will advance a cure for cancer. Yeah. Yeah. It's insane when I get a friend, when a friend of a friend has particular cancer, they call me and I'm like, dude, I will start asking around to see who the world's expert is, but it's all of this is knowable. You should be able to know what the trials are, what the current state of the art is, where it's available, what the risks are, and have that information instantly. But you've got to do it.

1:24:43And again, this is once you've built the Gold Standard data sets for our general common knowledge of humanity, for every country, its legal, its medical, its others, and for all these sectors, the specializations we have. This is what So, Liam was talking about earlier. Suddenly you have a whole gaggle of specialist agents and robots and data sets, fully open source for everything. And then you just need to update it and run it. Then we can be about wisdom and build intelligent systems that get wiser and wiser, but have an objective function to help us. Because for my take, the more we help, the higher the value of this new type of Bitcoin, again, more details soon.

1:25:21And you can be massively collaborative and open because you want as many people to use it as possible and you want to help as many people as possible. And the total amount of capital needed is not that large, it will give some estimates, but the wonderful thing is it's possible for the first time. The advances of O1 and R1 type models means that organized -the -walls -cancern knowledge are making it available or autism or Alzheimer's is just a question of compute. It's no longer a question of labor. The ability to make that available to everyone open source in their smartphones is just a question of compute.

1:25:55Will there be one model to rule them all for each of these or will there be thousands that are created? This is the wonderful thing about AI models. The way that you train them is called curriculum learning. You start with the whole internet, then a subset, subset, and then you get into this tuning, specialization and localization phase. Then it goes onto your laptop and it gets tuned continuously. So if you release the data sets and the models for each of those, you can build a modular system. Like we had these Laura's, these fine tunes of our image model where it can turn into anime or gively style.

1:26:28It's the same with this. Your Apple intelligence on your smartphone is a base model that's common. And again, you can ensure all the data and that is fine and not poisoned. Which I open source open data is required in my opinion for regular systems with these little adapters on the top. that are learning about sport and learning about your thing and tuning it to Apple photos. So you'll have this modularized system where everyone can pick and choose and that's important when, for example, your kids' education. Do you want to follow your school curriculum and be tied down to just that education model?

1:26:59Or do you want to be able to take that education model? Know exactly what's inside it and then extend it with another calculus course or this or that. You want the latter, right? And that's why permissionless innovation is so great. and this comes back to our deep seek discussion, right? The fact that it's open source means more people use it than anything else. Lamar was open source, more people use it than anyone else. So if you build great quality models and data sets, people will use it, they'll innovate on it, but you can set a really great solid foundation. So the models inherit from each other.

1:27:30They've all gone to the same school, then they go to different college and then they go to different universities. But they're interoperable. I love it. The future is amazing if we survive it. That's truly true. We're heading toward this extraordinary world, the most exciting time ever. We just need to survive the down side, the Star Wars Mad Max scenarios. I have a question for you. If we survive the next five to 10 years, how long do we live for? Yeah, so the you know, this is a lot of the work. I've been public on this and been having debates and arguments with a lot of the traditional medical and scientific societies that are like listen, we're just not gonna get past 120.

1:28:19It is it's built into our genes. In fact, the probability that you, Peter or you anybody is going to get past 100 and a healthy fashion is pre -dam low. And the fact the matter is science and medicine steeped in history and the past. There's good reason to believe that. But it's same good reason to believe that humans would never fly and never get to the moon and never travel at the speeds we do and never have instantaneous communications or quantum teleportation or all the things that were impossible just a few years or a few decades or a century ago. And the reality is we are a complex system of 40 human trillion cells with a billion chemical reactions per cell per second.

1:29:07And there's no way a human can understand this and understand what are the root causes of aging and why we age, but AI can. and I think AI can help us to understand the fundamentals and alter it and not accept what evolution dealt. Us evolution, evolution had a mission. Evolution had a mission of passing on genes by the age of 30 and then killing you off so you never stole food from your grandchildren's mouths. My mission was a little bit different than that. We're birthed for death. What's that? We're birthed for death. Yes. So that genes can propagate and we can break that cycle. So answer your question, E -Mod.

1:29:51I think we've got an unlimited future. Now, the question is, are you going to want to live the next 100 years in your meat sack, or the next 200 years in your meat sack, or are you going to want to upload whatever the health consciousness is and your memories into the cloud and be liberated? And we'll see. It's crazy to think about, again, this is such a time of change, right? And you look at the tools and techniques, you look at the medical sphere, we need to reimagine medicine from scratch, which is like we need core developer teams working in the open on each of these. What is government? Like, that's a question that we're having right now.

1:30:30Do we need to spend so much money? What is the purpose of government? How many people listening to this feel represented by the government? What if you have your own AI that you own that is looking out for you that represents you, that interacts with the government AI? Because every government decision will be checked by an AI within the next few years. Because you'll just do it. And then be made by an AI because obviously the AI is better than the government. That's scary. But you can finally have representative democracy. True democracy. For the first time ever. These are the positives. You can have personalized medicine.

1:31:02You have empathetic medicine. How much of medicine is actually psychological? You know, like I don't have control of myself, no one's listening to me, having that aid. These are systems that I think need to be built from scratch and reimagined. An education I think is probably one of the biggest ones of those. Our education system is completely not fit for purpose, despite the efforts of everyone. And we say that for a system or a system. Like you see, math academy and things like that and the results that people are already having. Do you see that one from the school in Nigeria recently? I think it was like two weeks with chat GPT.

1:31:36They did two years. Wow. It was two weeks with two months of chat. They had two years of advancement just with chat GPT in math. It was insane. I think, you know, we've had this conversation before where schools are up in arms and saying we're making, you know, AI legal. You can't use chat GPT. You can't use Gemini too. And the fact of the matter is sure, you can't use that to teach the way you're used to. but guess what? You can use it to teach a hundred X faster and better and set massive objectives for your kids, help them dream bigger than ever before. But it disrupts the entire you know teaching industry.

1:32:14Well it's because the school was designed to reduce our agency and remove it to become a cog within the classical you know this is a really important point that the last couple of hundred years, we've turned humans into robots. You know, you stood in assembly line, you stamped out widgets and the efficiency at which how many widgets you could stamp out per hour was your pay grade and your seniority level and whatever. And we measured you on KPIs and so on. And now we're flipping it around. And I find it fascinating that the most valuable colleagues and employees we have are the ones that learned the fastest.

1:32:47And that's starting now become the human factor much more again. And that's very, very encouraging, now you can add to it some really funny AI stuff. So this is, I had to speak to how to think about AI when I was like, you know, building on that thing about AI Atlantis and things like that. We can design AI in two ways. One is we build agents to replace people. The other is that we focus primarily on increasing human agency because our systems have taken that. Those are two different ways of designing AI actually. But it's one of the reasons I think I look at the Anthropics and Google's and others of the world.

1:33:20I don't think they're focused on increasing human agency as much as automation and business optimization because their customers are typically businesses or on the consumer side. Again, I don't think that it's just become a bit different on the design pattern side. But it's exciting because we can revolutionize each of these important things for living for the first time. All we can say is it is going to be the most exciting time ever to be alive for sure. This is why you need your eight hours of sleep at night. Yeah. For goodness. I did not get my eight hours. I woke up at 4 a .m. to prep for this podcast.

1:33:58It took a cold shower to wake myself up, but it was worth it because this was a phenomenal conversation. You lost me a cold shower, but okay.

1:34:12E -Mod. So happy to have you back on moonshots. Seleme, always a pleasure, my friend. E -Mod, if anybody wants to follow your current work, where do they go to see what you're up to? Look, follow me at e -Mod start on Twitter or ii .ink, IntagentNet .ink. ii .ink. I love that. It's awesome. Gentlemen, look forward to having this conversation on WTF just happening tech again. We're going to have this more frequently because our heads are spinning at the speed that technology is moving, just fundamentally spinning. Take care, Celine. Take care. You might see you buddies. Take care, guys.