LinkedIn Co-Founder Opens Up on AI Job Loss w/ Reid Hoffman, Dave, Salim, and AWG | EP #194

28:44Well, you know, as you know, because we've talked about this for decades, my very first book was a startup of you, because basically we all have to think more and more like entrepreneurs, even if we are the entrepreneur founder of creating a business or not, it's the nature of the world we're evolving into. And it came from the commencement speech I gave my high school, but But and that's part of the reason why so much of like, you know, there's probably, you know, two main streams of the kind of content that I produce. And one of them's around kind of technology and society and the other ones around entrepreneurship and part of the entrepreneurship is not just for, you know, which is obviously great if it's used by, you know, kind of blitzkailing, you know, high growth Silicon Valley and other entrepreneurs.

29:31but it's also we all need to think much more entrepreneurly and here are some lessons of entrepreneurship and here's that I think about them even for an individual and you know a career of jobs. Just just just in that vein I just want to point out I got a copy of Reed's book which is which actually says this is the Salimus Mail Edition at the bottom so it's customized that and it has a photograph of me in punk rock stuff so it's customized to the actually to the individual, I thought this was unbelievably clever. I think your commentary on the fact that AI gives us all super agencies a really profound one.

30:09Everybody needs to digest the implications of that because it's so huge. If people kind of look at that across the board, it'll uplift the whole of humanity very fast. Amazing. And congratulations on that book. I want to switch to a conversation led here by Jeffrey Hinton. So we've been talking about AGI. A lot of us on this pod have had the conversation saying, we, you know, the touring test came and went, you know, that was nice. And a few of us believe AGI is here, has been here. And the real conversation is around digital superintelligence. All right, let's go to Professor Hinton. Thoughts is that a superintelligence AGI is unlike anything we've ever seen.

30:50It's very, very different from just a new machine that does something more efficiently. I mean, people used to make clothes by hand and then they make clothes with machines and there's massive unemployment. But then eventually, you've got jobs doing other things. But super intelligent things are going to take away nearly all the jobs. And the idea that there's going to be jobs that are still okay when you have super intelligent AI is quite dubious. I think the job of an interviewer, for example, will disappear too. Super intelligent AI will be able to do a better job of interviewing me. So I sort of completely disagree with you.

31:28So a couple of subjects to jump into there and I'll start with you, Reed. What are your thoughts on ASI or digital super intelligence and on the back of that, however we define it and Slimam, I'm cutting to the chase here. I know the question you're gonna say, well, how the hell do we define ASI in the first place? Let's just say it's like, you know, a million fold more intelligent the average human, no ceiling on this. Does it destroy all jobs? And then where do we get our purpose from? These are the conversations that we've been having. It's what my next book is about. Read thoughts. Well, to start with the circumstance of say we get to a Star Trek universe where you know, kind of all work and physical materialism can, you know, physical material, you know, goods and services can be provided by, you know, kind of intelligent infrastructure.

32:26And that's the universe we're living in. I think we will adapt perfectly fine. You know, you, we have a proxy for it in human history, which is, you know, medieval times, that's essentially how the where everyone else was the surf and peasant and middle class and whatnot, infrastructures, so we have dinner parties and theatrical performances and hobbies and all the rest of the stuff. So I think like overly worrying about this, I think, is a mistake. Now, the problem with, and this gets the Y. Selim always defines like what it is and even going to a million times, It's like, well, you know, what kind of shape of super intelligences?

33:05Because if you look at the progression of GBT's, their progression of savants. And so if you get to the massively incredible amount that still has context awareness problems and other kinds of things, that is a different shape in terms of what happens. Then if you simply have something like the Ian Banks culture series, which is super intelligent robots that kind of look at us as kind of fun, companions and the space journey of life. And I think it's a, it's very easy to be science fiction alarmist. It's very easy to be, I don't mean to be either even science fiction just, you know, banal optimism.

33:52But it's kind of like there's a lot of different things with the details matter. and so kind of navigating what are the pieces we should be constructing right now in a range of different probabilities of outcomes is I think we're the the intelligent discussion is. Well, now it always surprises me how like Jeffrey Hinton is a god to me because he wrote the the Rommelard and Hinton paper in 1986, the back propagation that kicked off all the AI that we're experiencing right now comes from that that invention in 86 and it eliminated all the other forms of AI symbolic and Marvin Minsky and all that other stuff.

34:29So he is just an epic god. And he's, you know, he's worried sick. You can see his furrowed brow in that video. He's just worried sick. And at the end of the video, he's like, yeah, and I completely disagree with you on the cune, who's another legend of the field, the inventor of convolution. And then we had David Seagull on our stage, you know, here at Imagination in Action, the day before yesterday. And David is also, you know, he was at the AI lab at MIT at the same time I was as a PhD student. And he's on the Forbes 400 Quanttrator using AI. And he's got a completely different opinion about the timeline to strong AI.

35:02So it shows you how difficult it is to predict what's gonna happen next when you've got great, great minds like that, vocally disagreeing with each other in the media. Yeah, we're holding two different futures in superposition right now. And we're gonna see how we collapse the wave function. Alex. Yeah, I think this, this, this sort of moral panic again, very difficult to get too excited over this. I think it, if you think as I do that we're on the verge of having evenly distributed superintelligence and that evenly distributed superintelligence is going to solve substantially all open problems in math, science, and engineering, that's going to create so many different opportunities throughout the economy, sort of worrying too much about the state of jobs and the state of careers as they're currently proactively constructed.

35:56Circa 2025 is going to look hopelessly naive and quaint in a few years. Yeah, our basic call to action is solve everything. We're on the verge of solving everything. But here's a question for you. You know, we've had the conversation with biology that AGI is polytheistic, not monotheistic. Read it down if you saw that he put out. All of these frontier models are sort of leapfrogging each other and it's been pretty impressive to see how they've been moving in lockstep. But the question is, does is there a winner take all ASI? Once you reach this whatever fundamental breakthroughs are required, does the first ASI block all others?

36:41Is it a hard takeoff? Read you a pathot on that? At Microsoft, if that, at Microsoft. Indeed. Look, so this is again why it gets to, like can I sketch a universe where there's an ASI takeoff that gets to a compounding curve and or operates to prevent other AI. Yep, film at 11. I can tell that story. But I can also equally tell a lot of other stories, including the fact that it is pantheistic. By the way, one footnote that I think is interesting is if you have different cultures, responses to the possibility of superintelligence, those that are inherently monotheistic generally express broadly fear and those that are pantheistic, broadly express excitement because it's kind of like the one God versus many God's as an approach.

37:42And so I think that I think it's much more likely when you look at the pattern over the last couple of years that it will be more of like kind of classic human invention, which is whatever it is will be a

37:59Kind of a Kind of a zeitgeist the simultaneous Across a set of different so therefore the pantheistic, but you know, I can tell both both stories I'm gonna make two points here one is Though you know being in India where they're there. It's incredible to see the excitement around this just because they're tend to was the pantheistic, so that really speaks to the comment that we made in the other commentary. I want to drill a little bit more on which Alex just said, once you do have superintelligence, however it happens and it's solving huge numbers of problems, you essentially uplift all of humanity and now you're in a, you know, this is the very definition of a singularity, right?

38:43We have an event horizon that we cannot see beyond and it's going to happen very quickly and when And it does happen. I fall back to the simple observation made by Ray Kurzweil that technologies, a major driver of progress in the world, it might be the only major driver of progress in the world. And now we have an electricity type of underlying layer that's lifting everything. This is unbelievably positive. And the framing of it should be unbelievably positive. It is unbelievably positive. The question is, and the challenge is that we as a species, we strive and we thrive, when we're challenged, when we have problems that we meet, right?

39:22The video game that's super easy, you get bored and you don't play it. The video game that's extraordinarily hard, you give up. So my question ultimately is, and there was some incredible work done at New York University back in the 60s called the Universe 25 experiment. Read if you heard of that experiment. I don't think so. So there was a social, social biologist who basically built this experiment 25 times. It was a massive resort for rats. Let's call it that way. There was no shortage of food, no shortage of nesting space. They had everything they could possibly want. They put forward breeding pairs in their exponential growth.

40:05And at some point, the population starts to basically go upside down. You've got stillbirths. You've got rats fighting each other. you have rats sort of marginalizing themselves, just licking their fur and doing nothing, and the population basically dies, not from having a shortage of any resources, but of having everything and not being challenged. So this is an extension of the Wally scenario. Yeah, so for me, it's like we need a Star Trek future, not a Mad Max or a Wally. We need, if we're given this level of super capability in terms of AI and robotics and nanotechnology and BCI, what do we do with it that challenges us?

40:51They get us thinking on a cosmic scale. I think that's critically important. Alex, you and I have talked about that before. Totally. In fact, speaking of cosmic scale, if I could put a physicist hat on for a minute and go back to the question, I think Peter, you and Reed were talking about, which is, do we find ourselves? do we think it's more likely that we live in a near future with a singleton superintelligence or more of a multi -polar world? I would point out we're several generations at our star or Sun is several generations old in terms of stellar evolution and the singleton that I would worry about isn't is one particular frontier lab going to be the first to achieve recursive self - improvement and then dominate the future light cone.

41:37We're actually we're pretty far into the history of the universe. I worry about some other civilization not of our world that developed a singleton and now is seeking to exclude Earth's development of superintelligence. Fermi is knocking on your door, buddy. Well, I would say that the fact that thus far, to my knowledge, we haven't seen any evidence that the frontier labs are being bombarded by orbital lasers, by efforts to exterminate Earth's development of superintelligence would seem anthropically, lowercase A, not capital A, to point us in the direction of a multipolar superintelligence world, not a singleton.

42:17Fastenegh. Read any closing thoughts on that topic. Well, I think a little bit of also in these questions is, what is the world we should want? And I think actually multipolar, or pantheistic and by the way, in terms of your rad experiment or the rad experiment, one of the benefits is we human beings tend to present challenges to each other. So I'm actually not that worried that we won't have ongoing challenges because we compete, whether it's in things that we could be better at than anyone else or also just today, there's more people watching human beings playing chess than there have been at any point in history.

43:06And you know, that's of course, you know, human beings are never going to be the, never going to be AI's anymore in chess, haven't, haven't for many years. Fascinating. You know, I think we end up with, as we evolve this, and you can, chess is a great example of this, we watch people on a soccer field or on a chess board, We watch for the humanity. I mean can they make it in that really tense moment? Can they see the right move? Can they make the pass at a very critical juncture? Can you hit that tennis shot when all the pressure is against you? We live for watching that type of stuff. So I think to read's point as we progress humanity You know, and we've looked at cultures that have gotten to abundance the moguls taking over in the other Romans taking over Europe You end up in four activities that human beings do which is food, art, music, and sex, not in that order.

43:57And so you end up challenging each other in different ways and we'll continue to invent those in most sophisticated ways. I love that. All right, let's get into the AI wars here. And here's our first center cruise proposed bill to ease regulatory burden on AI companies. Proposal creates AI regulatory sandbox to speed innovation. companies could get temporary waivers from HIPAA, FDA, and other agencies. All right, what do we think about this? It's, you know, the government's pulling out all the stops. It's bringing capital from the Middle East. It's relaxing the rules here. It's changing the energy equation not as fast as we're seeing in China, but, you know, take off the gloves on drill baby drill, nuke baby nuke.

44:44Who wants to go first? I love it and it's desperately needed and we're going to need a lot more of it. But then I read the details and it's like, apply here, get a waiver, like, oh God, it just sounded so bureaucratic right out of the gate. But it's well -meaning, at least it's a step in the right direction. Well, AI should evaluate your application, AI will evaluate your application. Yes, and AI should just say yes from the beginning. In which case, the whole process should be less than 10 seconds, right? Or instantaneous, right? Or instantaneous, right? We're advisors to a project called Fermi America, which is the largest energy generation project in the world, like 12 gigawatts, and they filed their S11 and instead of taking two years, they did it in a few weeks using AI.

45:31Nice. I would add, if you think we're on the verge of an explosion of math, science, and engineering discoveries that are generated by superintelligence, then it also follows, I think, that we're about to have a glut of discoveries that are present governance mechanisms, including READ to the point of your start of monis. We don't necessarily know how to metabolize all of these discoveries. If we have a thousand of yours that are developed by AI overnight, how do we get those through clinical trials and get them out deployed for the public benefit? And so, to that extent, I think, in the abstract sandboxes and special economic zones and other ways to basically offer new platforms for modifying governance mechanisms to metabolize that glut of inventions and discoveries are probably super net helpful in the long term.

46:25Well, I'll tell you, in foundations of AI Ventures class at MIT, maybe a third of all the business plans that can not allow class are something health -related and they're really, really good ideas. and they all end up concluding they need to go to India to get started and they'll come back to the US later because the FDA is so small. Just like Zipline got started in Africa and came back to the US. I think we're going to see a huge amount of that geographic arbitrage just because it'll be and this is where we talk about innovation on the edge, right? You don't ever want to do innovation in the core organization you want to do it at the edge and put it into adjacent areas.

47:00I think we'll do the same on this side of things where we can set up sandboxes at the edges of cities or countries or whatever Go go do it in a safe place and then when it's working you can demonstrate that then come back into the mothership Reade a closing thought on this one Well, I do think that it's absolutely critical to be imagining to be seeing what we can get and so for example ability to like the simplest one that I go to in this is we should create clear safe -hard mechanisms for creating a 24 or 7 medical assistant that runs on every smartphone because the benefit for that is huge. And obviously plenty of attorneys, you know, other kinds of things we'll try to to to redact this as part of the reason why like people think, oh we get to regulation only because the government regulatory agencies have a natural bureaucratic accretion, but a lot of it's actually like liability law from you know a plaintive attorney associations and so forth and you need to actually in fact sandbox that in a way to get that and I think that then can be used as an example across the whole thing.

48:08Those are the kinds of things that I would pay much more attention to in this and I think it'd be good to do like on the energy side. I'd like to see the energy stuff happen that was you know kind of promised is really important. Energy is going to be a really key part of this. But so far, all I've seen is a lot of tweets and relatively little action. I'm so glad you said that because one of the great advantages of America is we have 50 distinct states and you have 50 different ideas and you have opportunities to try things. And that variety should be a great strength for us. But what actually happens in practice, if you launch an app, it's like a medical app, it naturally goes out to all 50 states and then you always get sued in these Texas, which is Ted Cruz's territory, by the way, he should just like, look, that whole tort law world is so messed up because it's 50 different shots at you, which means just by random chance, some really weird jurisdiction is going to come after you.

49:01I'm sure this happened at LinkedIn, too. You're probably very aware of this, but it's horrible. It completely backfires versus what the intent of the design was in the Constitution. So we get that fixed. Every day I get the strangest compliment. Someone will stop me and say, Peter, you have such nice skin. Honestly, I never thought I'd hear that from anyone. And honestly, I can't take the full credit. All I do is use something called One Skin OS 1 twice a day every day. The company is built by four brilliant PhD women who identified a peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it.

49:36And again, I use this twice a day every day. You can go to oneskin .co and write Peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. That's oneskin .co and use the code Peter at checkout. All right back to the episode. Jumping back to India OpenAI plans India data center in major Stargate expansion planning a one gigawatt accounting for 22 % of India's entire data center capacity by 2030. It's a part of openAI's $500 billion stargate project. So a fascinating thing here is again, OpenAI planting its flag in different regions around the world, trying to get early users captured. How do you think about this read?

50:22Well, actually, I suspect it's less user grab thing, although that's totally possible than for OpenAI and range of business. And it's more looking for OpenAI's very clear, I clear I'd about scale is the thing that's creating a huge amount of this of this potential opportunity. Scale needs scale compute and scale energy. And so where can you get that and wherever can work on getting a deal that that works within kind of the Western ecosystem, it will do that. And I think that's how to to interpret this. And you know, that was a little bit like my earlier comment, which is we are so behind on doing all the energy stuff massively massively and the real isn't really acceleration, you know back You know the Empire administration.

51:18I was kind of trying to circulate plans about doing deals with Canada to try to make this work From a kind of North America and US perspective but of course since the current administration is, you know, trying to, I've never seen the Canadian soap hissed off of us in my entire life, you know, that becomes less of an option. Yeah. I have a Canadian passport, so enough said there. Yeah. Celine, was this discussed while you were in India? It was, but it's mostly seen as a marketing tactic, kind of kind of just show a planting of flag. This is going to take a while to roll out. And India has quite significant infrastructure to do this in a kind of reliable way.

51:59But I think the general trend is huge. And I think what I see there is opening up looking at the youth of India and making a planting a major flag thing. Let's make sure we're completely accessible to all the young people in India. And by planting a data center there, then you solve for a lot of the data sovereignty issues that lots of people are concerned about. Yeah, this is critical. They have a very, you know, literate tech forward youth youth that they need to engage. On this, on the note of making geographic grabs, India's 1 .41 billion people, you know, we're going to go just under that at 10 million in Greece.

52:41So, OpenAI and the Greek government launched OpenAI for Greece. Congrats here to Prime Minister Mitsutekis and Bacili Kutsumbas, Kutsumbas, digital AI. Listen, I know him. He's easy for you to say. I'm just messing it up. But I love the fact that we're starting to see country after country begin to think about what is their AI strategy and beginning to partner on this. So I think we saw OpenAI going into the UK as well, and of course going into the UAE. Do we see Microsoft doing any of this, Reed? Well, Microsoft, you know, kind of the original tech hyper -scaler has, you know, one of the things has been kind of amazing about being on the board there is, you know, So it has an international scope of relationships with multiple industries, multiple governments, multiple countries kind of around the world.

53:49And so I simply, I'm lost track of all the things that they are doing because it is a UN in scope in terms of these things, although obviously a lot more efficient because it focuses is on kind of good business process and partnership and all the rest. So I think that the, and this is I think the kind of natural thing to do. I mean, it's one of the things that I think is you said, what should our AI for in policy be? It's let's provision medical assistance, let's provision. And I agree with Dave's point of a tutors. I mean, a tutor is just to make people understand it. But the fact that it can condition for learning for you wherever you want to go and in the metaphor and language that you want to use and all the rest.

54:36Like that's the kind of thing we should be doing. So I think this is awesome. Well done by the Greeks. Well done by OpenAI and we should see a lot more of it. Can I ask you a question, Reid, about going, you open AI going to India for power, makes no sense whatsoever, and there's short on power, and it's all cool. Well, you know, India has doubled their power generation as the US has remained flat. So India's on the rise faster than the US is. They're the most staggering rate. Are they? Well, they have a lot of sun. But it still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. But what I wanted to ask you about is RLHF engineering.

55:14The record is just growing like wild now that scale or scale has been acquired. And huge fraction of what is going on there is India. And we were at 1x robotics a few weeks ago, too. And they're like, hey, all this kinematic telematic data is going to be a gold mine for teaching the robots how to pour a cup of coffee without spilling it. And so a lot of that work, which is creating a huge amount of jobs, it's a new type of job, but the Indian workforce is absolutely perfect for filling all those positions quickly. So is that potentially a factor in my open eyes pushing so hard into India? I don't think they need to do it for that.

55:55My guess is, is any major scale partnership and and I think they're looking for power. And so, you know, Selene's quite in solar, I don't know, but I would hope. I do know that there's a bunch of other areas in the region that also have good access to a lot of clean power like Bhutan. And so I think that's more that, but by the way, yes, let's use the talent. And I don't think they need to have that kind of data center in order to do that. You know, one thing that Vasili Kutupas has done here is really focused this on education, right? Chat G -P -T -E -D -U for secondary schools. And I'm still really pissed that the US has not tripled down on this, right?

56:38Made it edict that you must use, you must be bringing this technology in. It's one of the most important things. You might two boys are 14 years old. And you know, the school systems are not preparing them for the future they're heading towards. Anywhere close. Yeah, and they're not doing it. they're just moving so slowly that AI is just so fast, you know, it's very hard for them to react because they're used to making decisions over a 10 -year time cycle. I think what's what's going to happen though is the impedance mismatch between a student as we said five to times faster is just going to break the existing system.

57:13The forcing function there will be really powerful. We've been waiting for some kind of instigation to that will be a forcing function to transform for my education for decades now. And I think this might be it. So this past week, OpenAI announced it's starting an AI chip production run with Broadcom. It's building three nanometer process. So let's start with you, Alex. Thoughts on this one. This lies at the intersection of so many different trends that are all converging at the same time. On the one hand, I think this is a reflection of NVIDIA's high margins, relatively high margins, and in some sense this is capitalism doing its thing and encouraging additional competition.

58:00On the other hand, I think this is a reflection of the proliferation of ASIC's application -specific integrated circuits to compete with more general purpose in video GPUs. On the other other hand, I think in some sense in the overall from a market capitalization perspective displaced Intel by being more specialized, I think we'll see a rise of inference AI inference specific compute like a hypothetical open AI inference processor or accelerator, maybe ultimately pose the threat that many people in the industry are asking for, which is where is the next Nvidia going to come from? I would argue if there is going to be a next Nvidia, it's likely as to come from a more specialized ASIC that does a better job of focusing in a more energy -efficient way, the sorts of tasks that we care about, the sorts of workloads we care about.

58:58And then finally, biggest trend of all, more is the second law. The cost of fabs is doubling every four years, and that's steamrolling the entire space. It is so expensive to build a fab at this point that leaves anyone at the same time that and horse a lot, horse first lot is basically ending or an American inclusion or tapering off leaves everyone else who wants application -specific acceleration, fabricating their own super narrow processors. So, 10 different trends all converging in this. Well, only thing I'd add to that, Alex, is it's a new era in the sense that if you were a TSMC and you're building microprocessors, pre -GPU, and somebody comes out with a two nanometer, 1 .8 nanometer, 1 .4 nanometer process.

59:48Everybody moves to that new chip. Nobody wants the old chip because it's more power -efficient and it's just a better buy. Now all of a sudden, we care tremendously about just raw volume. And that never existed before. You couldn't just crank tile the earth with chips. Now you can and use it productively. So I think there are two avenues going on here. There's It's increasingly 20 billion, 30 billion, 40 billion dollar fabs, but then there's these new four billion dollar fabs. And maybe they're stuck at three nanometer. They don't go beyond that. But they have a huge ability to get up and running quickly and create a massive amount of volume.

1:00:24Because I think the algorithmic improvements are much more important than the difference between three nanometer and two nanometer. And so getting scale of volume, and you know, this slide kind of indicates that open AI is buying these from Broadcom, but Broadcam can't make them. They're a design company. You know, they don't have fabs. And so, you know, where are you actually going to get the manufacturing and you look a layer deeper? And there's a huge amount of investment and job creation, by the way. And then something all the governors should be looking at, get those fabs in your state like tomorrow, because that's where all the jobs are gonna be.

1:00:58Robots all the way down, buddy. Yeah, that's true, too. All right, so we have a new number one trillionaire in the house. Oracle CEO Larry Ellison exceeds Elon as the wealthiest. He's going strong at 81 years old. I'm very happy that he is someone focused on longevity and health span extension. I'm waiting for some good breakthroughs coming out of his work. So OpenAI will buy Oracle Compute over the next five years to $60 billion per year. The contract is for a 4 .5 gigawatts of capacity. Two Hoover dams. I like that. We're going to start measuring data centers in terms of Hoover Dams. So I asked the governor of Massachusetts how many Hoover Dams she wants.

1:01:41I love it. So opening I add Oracle as a partner. And you know you may or may not be able to comment but this begins to show some potential strain with Microsoft and push to avoid having a single supplier. Comments on this, anybody up for grabs. Well, I mean, obviously I can't talk about anything from an internal perspective, but I would say that it's, you know, I think one of the simple things is, as I said a couple of comments here is, open AI wants to be in as many growth threads as possible. And I think it's a as much as possible. And I think it's kind of the fact that there's a bunch of volume that they could buy from I think that's actually the real thing more than a strain.

1:02:33I got a question for you, Reed. So Chase Lockmeller was out here the day before yesterday. He's Kruso, which is building Stargate in Abilene, Texas. And he's MIT class of O8. He got two degrees in three years. Not quite Alex getting three degrees in four years, but he got math and physics in three years. Absolutely brilliant guy. And I, on stage asked him, how is the deal with OpenAI, I see all these videos of you and Sam Altman walking around looking all the pipes and wires and he said, we actually sell it through Oracle to OpenAI. I was like, I didn't understand for the life of me. I didn't have time on stage to ask, but why is Larry sitting between you and Sam Altman?

1:03:13I don't quite understand what his value ad is in the middle there. I don't know either, although I do know that a lot of the Oracle has passed through. So, you know, in terms of provisioning and building the etaceneers and so on. So, but I don't know, I don't know the shape of it. Huh. But I made it in the wealthiest man in the world. You can see on the slide there. So it's a big deal. He's a lot to live for. Let's see if he gets to 151st. Hey guys, it's Peter. One of the things I found out is that a number of people are getting together for dinner to talk about the content around the moonshots WTF episodes.

1:03:47And I want to facilitate that on September 24th. There's going to be a get together. There's a link in the show notes below. People are getting together here in LA. If you'd like to go to one of these dinners, click on the link. And have fun. We have amazing subscribers listening to this. People who are building companies who are really going after moonshots. So check it out. I'd love to hear in the comments if you go to the dinner, what you thought of it. By the way, I don't have an affiliation with the company listed in the link below. And while I don't normally show up to these dinners, occasionally I do.

1:04:22All right, have fun back to the episode. All right, moving on to some in Theropping News. And Theropping raises 13 billion in a series F, valued at 138 billion valuation. They've got a revenue surge of 1 billion run rate in January, now up to 5 billion run rate as of August. That's insane. Right, over 300 ,000 businesses have have gotten enterprise accounts. Fastest growth curve in tech history and one of the most valuable AI firms. We're going to start to redefine the magnificent 7 very soon as something else. I think the broader picture here is that enterprise has been sitting around watching all of these foundational models get to a certain point.

1:05:11But now you need the robustness and data sovereignty and on -premises stuff that enterprises need. I think that's where the massive infrastructure and investment will go next. I totally agree. I don't know if Dario will do it because he's very, very, very safety conscious. So TBD, whether, whether anthropic is the company that does it or not. It's interesting that Dario is totally neutral in these battles now because everybody's making their own chips. So the battle between Jensen and his own customers is just beginning and it's going to be epic to watch. But Dario is still the one guy who's neutral in every conceivable way.

1:05:47Just I can work with anyone, I can sell to anyone. I don't know, we'll look at an article coming up very shortly. Reed, did you see Dario's presentation at Davos or recording of it where he said that he could imagine doubling the human lifespan the next five to 10 years on the back of AI? I didn't, but I know Dario also doesn't surprise me. Yeah, what do you think of his machines of loving goods? No, no, no, no, I want to ask him still about the life of, you know, the, are you, do you buy this idea of, of AI helping us double human lifespan? I guess this short answer is trivially yes. It's just kind of a question of time frames and hours happened.

1:06:26I mean, part of, for example, you know, the reason why, you know, Suddart and Mukhaji and I are working on, you know, accelerating, yeah, man, say, I for accelerating drug discovery with a focus on cancer is if you, to begin to get a set of the different cures, we naturally age in various ways, but a set of different cures which substantially elongate the aging curves in a healthy, prosperous way. That does it. If you have a medical assistant that allows you to be much smarter about consumption and other kinds of things, that helps too. I think there's, you know, and then precision medicine, obviously accelerated with AI.

1:07:10I think it's very straightforward. Love it. Dave, you were going to ask a question. Oh, yeah. Machines of loving grace is all, you know, kind of a treatise on the future. Did you like it? Oh, I loved it. Look, I think part of the thing that people misunderstand about some of the people who, you know, he made his comment about safety and I think he is, very funny. This next slide, he is very focused on safety, but the reason he's in it is a pro -humanist reason, the same reason why the open AI people are in it. It's like, what are the ways that we elevate the human condition? So speaking about this, here's our next slide.

1:07:49Tyler's AI Safety Sparks and Thropic Hunger Strike. This is a quote for the guy on the hunger strike. I'm on a hunger strike outside the office. This has been through because we are in an emergency. The AI company's race is rapidly driving us to a point of no return. I'm calling on in through up its management to immediately stop their reckless actions, which are harming our society and remediate the harm caused. So I don't know. This is from a few days old. He was on day three at that time. I don't know if he's still in a hunger strike or if someone's Uber Eats has delivered him a meal. But I don't mind.

1:08:26Well, it might have been a while, but yes. But in all respect, I mean, here's someone who cares deeply and is trying to make the point. What I find fascinating is when I think about all of the frontier companies, I think, Anthropic is the one who is the most sensitive to these topics, to AI safety. Yeah, I wonder why you picked that one. Maybe it was the closest story lived. Yeah, I don't know. didn't know where the new XAI headquarters were. Yeah, I expected it. Yeah. This feels to me as a candidate, an application form for the Darwin Awards. Oh my God. Oh no. Oh no. Okay, moving on. So Amazon's AI resurgence, AWS and Anthropics, Trainiam expansion, AWS Cloud Revenue slowed as Google and Microsoft pulled ahead.

1:09:17Congratulations, Google and Microsoft. I'm going to talk about Amazon's invested $4 billion into an anthropic, I guess I was part of that $13 billion F series round. To build a 1 .3 gigawatt data center capacity dedicated to AI training. And an anthropic will run on training them too. Amazon's in -house AI chip, cheaper per memory bandwidth versus Nvidia. So this is what I was saying, Dave, when you were saying about anthropic Nvidia, it looks like they're shifting towards working with Amazon here. Yeah, well, the trainings and then the TPUs at Google are incredibly good inference time designs.

1:09:57Maybe training, maybe not, we'll know soon. But yeah, definitely a very serious threat to Nvidia. Not because everyone's going to sell out everything they can make. There's no doubt about that. But if your chip is more performant, then you can argue for more manufacturing from TSMC. That's where it all all gets bottlenecked, is at TSMC. So, yeah, these new chips, I mean, everybody's competing with everybody. It's all out war. All these companies that were in swim lanes and could cooperate are suddenly absolutely, absolutely, at each other's throats, which is great for startups. Turbulence is always great for startups, but it's really weird to see all of tech and a huge fraction of our economy in direct competition with each other.

1:10:41Alex, I would add also it's not just today's point, it's not just competition at the chip level. Maybe the from my perspective the headline that we're sort of burying here is the memory bandwidth so much if you're trying to do a coherent training run actually the limiting factor is the chip to chip bandwidth not necessarily the compute within the chip. And here I think what we're seeing fortunately is a bit of competition for NVIDIA's NV link coming from AWS and Amazon. AWS has this chip -to -chip interconnect technology named NeuronLink that is perhaps hopefully giving NVLink and Infiniband run for their money.

1:11:21And to the extent that future training runs need to be coherent, open parenthesis, do they need to be coherent? Or will we see some sort of radical overhang breakthrough in terms of distributed training runs for parenthesis? There is some stuff in China that's very promising on that front. And that would totally, it's funny how a little innovation, a couple lines of code, could break the whole math behind these investments. Very, very interesting fragile kind of thing. Reed, you can see why Alex Weasemargrosa is the favorite moonshot mate on this podcast. Exudes his brilliance. All right. Let's move on here.

1:12:03next up is Polymarket. So Polymarket finally is coming to the US. It's an incredibly useful product. Do you play with Polymarket much read? No, I've done it a couple of times. I'm obviously fascinated from it from a market point of view and how it plays out into the various ways in which the general crypto environment, you know, e -shaping and how we shape it to try to make our societies better. You know, Polymarket for me is wisdom of the crowds. One of the things we discussed on a previous WTF episode is the idea of AI is being able to predict the future. And the question is, how do you do RL with, you know, predictions of the future?

1:12:53I guess you could look at them in retrospect, but Polymarkets could be an interesting truth signal Alex do you think so? I think polymarket and prediction markets in general, if you're a startup and you want to do free real -time research on your customers or on your competitors, prediction markets are a way to do that. And I think while we're still in this gap, this window of time between when we have prediction markets, sort of collective intelligences, or Peter, I know you like, organisms. I love it. And when we get superintelligence, prediction markets are the closest thing we have to a crystal ball for the future.

1:13:30At some point, probably, I would argue, we get our superintelligence, as we get our Isaac Asimov, Harry Seldin, psychohistory, AIs that predict the future. At that point, maybe prediction markets get subsumed. By the way, there is an asterisk here that's important is the prediction markets don't set separately like theory in the world. So like some of the things that I've been seeing happening has been people putting bets on, you know, like what color, you know, Dildo will be thrown onto the sports ring, you know, first. And then it becomes an economic incentive because you put a bet on your blue and you show up there trying to toss your, you know, your blue Dildo onto the sports ring first.

1:14:15And so there's a weird intersection with society where it's not just a kind of a physics of prediction, but an inner leaving of dynamic incentives and best way to best way to predict the futures, throw the Dildo yourself. Yeah. To accept Peter, Peter, this is the problem with super determinism. You see everything that readjust said, I made him say that. Exactly. There was an incentive. I love it. All right, moving on. All right, this was a great note. I love this chart. So US patents have exploded during the AI revolution. So you can see here on this chart, the number of patents per year. My God, the poor patent examiners, they've got to be displaced by AI's.

1:14:57And we see here in 2022 an explosion, 6 ,000 more patents granted in 2024 versus 2023. three, it's a, you know, it doesn't get more exponential or sort of a vertical ascent than, than right now. What I read from this is that people are using AI to, of course, application. Well, not only that, they're using AI to create the patent application. I mean, so one of the things, one of my favorite things I did years ago when Chatchy PT first came out was I said, okay, here are two patent numbers. This is the business I'm in. How would I use these patents to creating you product or service inside my business.

1:15:38And it was, you know, here it is. And okay, is that now patentable? So just this ability for people who want to explore this area. Well, if you've ever been through the process too, one of the companies in the CEO is ThinkStruct. It's Nikki Abate and Julius.

1:16:00They started doing academic research using AI. You know, it's like a toolkit and they quickly moved over to patent research and then patent filing. And so they've automated the process. But if you do it the old fashioned way by talking to a lawyer and they're saying, okay, explain to me what this technological breakthrough is. Oh my god. From ground zero, you want me to explain that it takes days. But you do have the AI and it's instantly, you know, here's the application. Let's go and presumably the patent office has to read it with AI too because, This will keep going up. It's a no -arms race.

1:16:33It has to. There's a patent law firm out here that I've recommended to some of my companies. They're based in Boston as well. What they've done is they've analyzed all the patent examiners and by different category. They've looked at the percent of the allowances they've had. They've also looked at the time between application and review. and so they will direct your patent application to the examiners of the highest rate of acceptance in the lowest time to review. It's a game. Humans in their loop can be game. This reminds me of that study that was done where if you were lawyers bringing up their clients for parole hearings, we're kept trying to put them in after lunch because they found that before lunch the judges are hungry and you're going back to jail after lunch they were biologically happier and you were 30 % more likely to go free because the judges of biology are actually happier.

1:17:30Like that's just gaming the system to an end level. This is the whole thing as it's just a game. Alex. I was, I mean, maybe I'll take the opposite side of Selim's comments. I would say at this stage, we're still in the, just the earliest innings of, of AI generating transformative mathematical scientific engineering breakthroughs. So to the extent that we're seeing any boom lit of patents being generated in part or in whole by AI, I don't expect that on average they will be utterly transformative. I do think we will see transformative inventions being generated by AI. I know what the next thing is.

1:18:06What I'm talking about is it's very clear that the patent application process is being generated. The application forms a read down by AI, which allows you to large number, not that the patents are generated by AI. I wonder what's going on here. If you're listening to this podcast on this chart, we look at the number of patents per year and it's pretty flat from 1960 to 1996. Then we see this rapid ascent, 6000 patents over eight years. And then it begins to flatten out again with a thousand patents over what looks like to be an 18 year period. And then it explodes on the heels of Chatchee PT.

1:18:42What is that period between 2004 and 2022? Why is it planned out? A huge number of gene patents, because they decided right in that time for any... And dot -com patents too, I'm sure. I would remind everyone to read the title of the chart. These are computing related patents. So I think what we're seeing with the first boom lid is the dot -com boom, and then we're seeing the AI boom with the second boom lid. Uh -huh. Okay. Always actually looking at the data. Read the chart. Read the chart. So we were on stage. We're at least the title. Yeah. We were on stage with Ahmad, the CEO of Repplet, and I'm sorry, I'm glad the CEO of Repplet, and Ahmad had just released agent on that day.

1:19:29This was what Tuesday. But he just posted this as well, which replets agents are outpacing AI scaling. So this is the meter benchmark, which is basically looking at measuring AI's ability to complete long tasks. And he's saying that this benchmark is wrong. Alex, thoughts? Well, so if we assume the data that meter is collecting or the time scales that meter is estimating are accurate, an exponential fit isn't necessarily the best fit. It could be, for example, that we're on as Ray Kurzweil would say a hyper exponential curve. If we're on a hyper exponential curve, then it's entirely possible that we see some sort of blow up in the next few years.

1:20:18I've seen estimates that if we are on a hyper exponential curve, if that is indeed the best fit that there's almost an effective vertical asymptote in late 2027 or early 2028. So it may be the case that the data are perfectly fine. It's the fit that's that's perhaps overly pessimistic. So on this chart here, I'm Judd says, listen, agent one was able to think for two minutes, I'm Judd said agent two was 20 minutes and now agent three is 200 minutes. We're seeing we're seeing a 10Xing here. And the question is will it continue? And I think it's probably worth adding, if I remember correctly, he attributes that to, well, perhaps some sort of multi -agent approach is intrinsically better than another approach.

1:21:02My guess would be the exact opposite. My guess is multi -agent type approaches will just be naturally subsumed into existing compute scaling laws, and we just find ourselves on a hyper exponential. And all of this turns into transformative discoveries and almost magical AI on the time scale if two to three years, regardless of whether it's underneath something that looks multi -agent or otherwise. No, I'll ask a bit of a question there. I do think that one of the things that is part of underlying this is how do we do various forms of parallelism? It's the parallelism to the super compute, but also parallelism to agents because you get mixture of experts as a key thing for the sparse models in order to grow.

1:21:45I actually think one of the things you're seeing with a chain of thought reasoning and other things is, is again, putting in collections of agents in terms of how they're operating together in order to get higher cognitive performances. So I'm curious a little bit about what your comment is because I actually think that multiple, you know, that kind of parallelism and kind of at least multiple entity constructions, even if it's to a targeting kind of a singular output, is actually part of the lesson here. And I'm just curious, how does your comment bear on that? I love that question, Reed. So the way I would answer that is to say multi -agent teams, multi -agent approaches in general, that's just a form of sparsity.

1:22:26So you could imagine to your point, multiple agents working in parallel together, that you could just view that through the lens of a much larger sparser architecture with multiple feed -forward lines that are all feeding forward in parallel that ultimately connect up at some point down the road. But the problem I perceive and history will judge whether this prediction is correct or not with conventional multi -agent approaches is they're usually not end to end differentiable. Whereas one could imagine sort of a next generation multi -agent approach where the agents are actually part of one end to end differential model where due to the way it's sparsely organized, it actually, if you squint at it, looks like it's multi -agent even though it's one very large, but sparse model that I think speaks to your question.

1:23:14It desperately needs better benchmarks for this. This came up with Blitzy saturating sweet bench last week or this week. If you look at human endeavor over a long period of time, many, many things happen in parallel. Then read Peter's book, The Future's Faster Than You Think, and you see how the synergy is later. Here you can spark an infinite number of parallel agents. not everything needs to happen after the prior thing. And so when you look on the curve, it implies, oh, I thought of this, then I thought of that, then I thought of that. But much of that processing can be done in parallel. And also you can have many, many redundant threads.

1:23:51Very often, if you prompt 10 different things, one of them works nine don't. And so you can take from that from 10 to 100 to 1000, just get a better result. So all that is not baked into the, the Y -axis is just how much time is it thinking, which is a crazy metric when you think about it. Hey folks, Selim here. Many of you have asked where we can see more of Selim and where is he based, et cetera. Well, we do a monthly workshop called TenX Shift, which is happening tomorrow the 17th. And on that workshop, we go two hours. It's not recorded. It's we keep it limited to about a hundred people. It's a hundred dollars.

1:24:26People say it's the best hundred bucks that they've spent. Where we coach people on how to TenX to a hundred X their organization using the exponential organizations model. And we go through and look at live examples and take questions and do coaching live on the call. I'm on the whole call for end to end. So if you wanna hear more from me, that's the place to do it. 10X of Workshop, link is below or go to OpenEXO .com. We'll see you there. So there's technology we've all imagined years ago and it's finally here, which is live language translation in my Apple AirPods, let's take a listen. Talk, just speak naturally.

1:25:05I'd love to take some of these to my sister for her birthday. I'll buy eight, please. Your iPhone displays your words in their language, and can even read them out loud if needed. Vale. Life translation is even more useful when both people are wearing AirPods Pro. I agree. Yeah. Let's include the key. We will include the main discoveries in the presentation of the sister Fader. Definitely, the client will love that. I'll let the strategy team know to prepare that immediately. This incredible capability is enabled by advanced computational audio on AirPods, combined with Apple. So, we saw a Duelingo take a stock hit when Google's live translation went live.

1:25:57I haven't looked at Duelingo's stock price here, but at the end of the day, you know, this looks like another incredible should have existed, finally does exist, and it's going to make the world a little bit smaller. Any quick thoughts on this one? Apple finally launched Stuckless Adams, Fable Fish. Yes, Fable Fish, thank you. Yes, of course. And hopefully it's a lot better than Siri. Yeah. Don't get me started. This is audio augmented reality. And I would say now do video. Give us our lightweight smart classes. Yeah. I think the video, the augmented conversation with video is going to be incredible.

1:26:35I think that's the real vision. This is kind of cool too. But yeah. Next subject is robots and transportation. So, Elon's made this point before, you know, by 2040, expecting 10 billion optimist robots. And he's gone to the market and said, cars are okay, but the real opportunity is optimist robots. So he's playing the scale to 1 million per year within five years. Automate of sales comprises 74%. So a little bit about this. He was just recently speaking about this saying that, generation three is coming online soon with the manual dexterity of a human, in particular, huge focus on the forearm and the hand with 26 actuators.

1:27:22His goal, if he gets 2 million per year, is a cost of manufacture of $20 ,000 each, and he'll price it depending upon what the demand is. But at the end of the day, what we've talked about here on the pod is a expected price in the 30 ,000 per purchase, just three hundred bucks per month for at least $10 per day. Any comments on Optimus? I'd dinner with Rodney Brooks last night. Who is the Irohbott founder? Yes. Rodney is the OG in the space. Yeah, but he was really pessimistic about, the question at our table is will we have a robot in our home by 2035, which seems like a lifetime? Oh my God.

1:28:05And he said no, I was like really. Yeah, it's all supply the technology will exist, but the supply chain Won't be there so here you're talking about Tesla making a million optimuses per year within five years But there's 300 you know 300 million people 150 million households So that means very few of your friends have one in five years just because the supply chain is so slow to catch up to the demand I especially get my one X by the end of the year at least by March Right you met you heard me you saw me shake hands with Yeah, that's you're you though you're you're the you're the I was talking to I was talking to Steve cousins about this And we kind of talked through some of this and there's all sorts of issues one is battery life Is still way low for a bunch of these Applications the second is if it falls over to me so heavy it's gonna be very hard to pick up One exit one exit like 70 pounds and Lord help if you falls on you type of thing So there's a lot of areas where I think this is going to take much longer.

1:29:08I would not so much the supply chain, I think just the liability issues and the constraining the function and the actual action of what it does is going to take much longer to solve the insurance and legal issues first. Are you an optimist on this read or pessimist, RoboPesimist? and Optimus, did you say on this? The look, I would just kind of be mused. Look, ultimately long -term, I think obviously it's there. I think the short -term, I don't know if Tesla has ever met the potential target. Too shay. Alex, you were going to say something. Yeah, I would also, I mean, I would focus on that 80 % figure that I think is such a striking number.

1:29:54if you think about, and think about the, from a market analysis perspective, think about the size of automotive. It's probably like four or five trillion dollars per year worldwide. Whereas if you think about labor and the services market, it's depending on which estimates you believe manual labor is like two thirds of the services economy and call that like 20 trillion. So in some sense, this 80 % of Tesla's value is really a bet that Tesla achieves parity with the services market. It's a general sort of universal intelligence -powered services company. And I think that's probably where the market overall ends up.

1:30:33Well, you remember, he's got to hit a trillion to get his trillion dollar pay package. So if anybody can do it, I think you long can. So anyway, let's move on. So other robots here. All right, let's take a look at a different design. This is called the hidden robot boom. This is a generation of robots that don't have five, you know, two arms 10 fingers sleeve here here Yes, it's been on this on the WTF episode. It's like why do they have to have two arms and two legs and a head? Well, okay, this is what they look like otherwise sleeve. Do you want one of these? Let me know

1:31:23I think this is awesome. I saw one where they were using it to map out the floors of a construction thing and and So, mapping out exactly where the pillars and so on would go. I think this is huge. I think the industrial use for robots is so much past the home use for a while to come that people are underestimating that. I think the efficiency gains from that are going to be huge. And obviously the form factor is not going to be humanoid. I mean, it might be if you've heard me before, but at least give me a third arm if I'm a humanoid robot at least. Or a dildo. Anyway, the use here wind turbines, nuclear plants, subsea pipelines, railways, tunnels, power lines, the old adage if it's dull, dangerous, or dirty, use a robot to do it.

1:32:14The estimated market on this particular tweet that came out is that this sort of marketplace for robot maintenance and inspection is $6 .7 billion today, growing at about 13 % per year, expected at 12 .5 billion by 2030. I think that's a radical underestimation. So just for example, if you look at the Mekong Delta in Indonesia, Vietnam, whatever, it's so polluted. And if you had underwater robots cleaning it up, it would just completely change the game, make things massively better. It's like the smallest titch of an application. I just want the robots cleaning the side of the 405 out here in LA.

1:32:57Right. Or the beaches. Yeah, sure. Okay, I found this one super super interested and this is surgical robot performs gallbladder procedure autonomously, right? So this is different than the DaVinci robot, which is basically an extension of a human operating in a theater. And you guys all know what I've said about this. If you need to hire a surgeon for something, this is two are amazing WTF when shot subscribers, if you need to get a surgery and you want to interview your surgeon, there's one question you ask them, which is, how many times have you done the surgery this morning? The success of a surgeon is a function of how many different cases they've seen and sort of the eye muscle memory on doing these.

1:33:44So in the final result, I do believe the best surgeons in the world will be robots. They'll see an infrared, ultraviolet. They wouldn't have a fight with their girlfriend or boyfriend. they would have that drink too much caffeine. So this comes out of Johns Hopkins, and they built a surgical robot without any human control. It achieved a 100 % accuracy in this gallbladder remover. It's different than Da Vinci. And Da Vinci came out of, was a DARPA project, right, to help surgery in the field. I think this is huge. You know, how long, how far we'll have, how long we'll have this in the future? I don't know, I don't think it's more than three to five years.

1:34:26This is a sensor, actuator, machine learning problem. Alex, what do you think about it? Yeah, no, notably Peter, I read the paper, very exciting paper, that from the Hopkins team. This was a model that was trained by imitation learning. So it was trained by watching videos of human surgeons, perform surgeries. and that immediately rhymes in my mind with the early deep -mind results like AlphaGo that were trained from watching in part expert human games. And I think we're going and I would expect if history does rhyme, we're about to enter an era when using digital twins and maybe this may or may not be aligned with what Reed is thinking for Cure and Cancer with Monus, we're going to transition from imitation learning based medicine and surgery to reinforcement learning based medicine and surgery.

1:35:22The moment we have a high fidelity digital twin of the human body and of course, turtles all the way down, cell, virtual cell models as well. Why train off of copying humans when you could do reinforcement learning and achieve potentially super duper human level performance? So I think, again, early innings, but I think it's inevitable. we see sort of a surgery zero, new zero version of this sometime soon. Reid. Look, I think the surgery part of this stuff is I think I grew through a lot of sight. I think we already, you know, it's a little bit like, for example, today you said, I would either would you pick an AI or your average radiologist to read your X -ray film, you'd pick the AI to the end of your hands down.

1:36:06Like, you know, 11 out of 10 times. And I think we're heading to that with the robotics now. I think that the approaches, I think actually human biology is actually quite complicated and the ability to do a full simulation is some ways off. But I think that this kind of robotic thing, oh my gosh, hit the accelerator. Yeah, love it, love it. I think of it as air traffic contra - flying a plane, right? Today the plane will fly themselves 99 % of the time. The pilot of this only their case for emergency, I think we'll see the same thing here. All right, so Zook, sorry, remember Zooks, I came and visited them and met the team there.

1:36:49They were acquired by Amazon and back in 2020. And this is a self -driving pod, right? This is you and your best buddies facing each other inside there. And they're launching finally, good for them. They were launching in Las Vegas. They have massive scale, well, not really. 50 vehicles in their fleet. They'll start in Las Vegas, then San Francisco Miami LA is free for the first few months, but then they're going to go to similar pricing as Uber and Lyft. Any thoughts, gentlemen? If any of you guys taken the self -flying drone in Dubai, you push the button and it picks you up. Not yet. Not yet.

1:37:28Dying too. I just don't want to be first, but just don't do it to die. Let's put it that way. They're in production. Peter, you're usually really adventurous. So that's what I would do it in a heartbeat. I saw it first at Consumer Electronics show. You know, Martin Rothblatt bought like a hundred of those vehicles early on for organ delivery before she got involved in her own, you know, vertical takeoff, flying car, beta. All right. It's wrap here at the end of the program. I remain just continuously like a kid in the candy store, at the speed at which this is moving. Every day waking up and I love the articles you send over Alex and the conversations that we have.

1:38:25Greed, what are you most excited to see in the next year? Well, I'd say the next year will be part of the reason why I think the focus on coding and acceleration of coding is I think it accelerates everything. Accelerates individuals as per the co -pilot that I was talking about before, but also accelerates the discovery and the computation, the algorithms that Dave was talking about. And I actually think we will see massive coding acceleration, and that will be a precursor to many other accelerates. is there one start track part of the equation that you're looking for to? Sure, track. You know, it's kind of a, we tend to overpredict the two years and underpredict the ten years.

1:39:11So with a little bit of the, you know, what would be the science fiction thing? I mean, obviously we saw, you know, and I'm very hopeful about the iPod 3s. Maybe a track order? Yeah, I think we've reported on some early version of the Tri -Quadar. I done a $10 million Qualcomm Tri -Quadar X Prize 10 years ago. It's time to do it again. I think the tech is there for sure. So, Liam, what about you? What are you excited about? Passing your drones would be my personal favorite. I mean, EVTALs? EVTALs spent eight days out in nine in India, traveling between our ports and like what the hell kind of waste of time crap is that?

1:39:50Oh my God. today's world. The technology is there. It's not just implementation infrastructure. We saw a flying car in the campus of Stanford two days ago. Yeah, very, very impressive, very impressive design and it's very workable. Yeah, he thought he could get over time the cost down to about 40 ,000 a car. Yeah, I can't wait. Day most excited about by far is a version two of read interviews. read. I thought that was, you know, reading was often the real read was one of the most brilliantly conceived pieces of media. And even if it doesn't seem it, dig it up, you could do it so much better today, actually, because when you did it, actually, I assume you coded that up yourself, but that was pretty hard to do when you did it.

1:40:34Now you could do something incredible. And Peter did, he did a onstage interview of Socrates and Aristotle that turned into a big love fest.

1:40:45So myself last year at the abundance summit of 150 -year -old version of myself, which was fun. And you know, asked it about the future. And it had some great answers. I loved it. Well, I'll say everybody watching this pod, posts, please read, do it again, do it again. Alex, let's not forget you, buddy. What do you imagine over the next year that would really sort of hit your childhood ambitions? I think I'm getting rather difficult to ontologically shock at this point, but I will say pulling all of Star Trek, not just some of Star Trek to the left. I think that's a worthy ambition. Yeah. We've got the Holodex.

1:41:27We've almost got the replicators if you squinted food printers. We're missing work drive. We're missing a whole bunch of other aspects of Star Trek. Wouldn't it be lovely if we were able to pull those to the left as well? I've got one. I was chatting with Steve Jefferson at the Stanford conference and he reiterated that crazy anecdote about it. Once we have a quantum computer, it'll be definitive proof of the multiverse. And that really means alcohol to get into. All right, well, we'll do that one of our next sessions. Thank you everybody to our subscribers. We appreciate you. If you're not a subscriber, come join us.

1:42:00These are the conversations we have that we hope will make you more intelligent, more excited about the future. Help you understand what the hell just happened in the last week because the speed of change is not just exponential, it truly is becoming a hyper exponential. So you guys, my moonshot mates appreciate you read. Thank you buddy. It's actually a wonderful friendship. Grateful for you. Massively fun. Yeah. If you could have had a 10 year head start on the dot com boom back in the 2000s, would you have taken it? Every week I track the major tech metatrends. These are massive game changing shifts that will play out over the decade ahead.

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