The AI Reset Is Here: Search, Jobs, and Everything Else w/ Anish Acharya, Dave Blundin & Salim Ismail | EP #173

26:50So it helps you, but you're still coding it up. But there's some kind of a paradigm shift coming, you could debate whether it's three months from now, you're from two years from now, but it's coming. I agree. And what percentage of your companies in the abundant portfolio are AI, and how many would you put in the bucket of physical robotics or biotech or nano -tech or 3D printing non -AI exponential tech? So I'm focused on consumer software. I think if you look at that theme as a substrate across the firm, many of our investments, many of our American dynamism investments are also very much in that vein, but in terms of software, largely all of our investments, there's one or two that aren't direct AI companies today, but that's very much sort of a part of the strategy and on the come.

27:41It just begs the question of if you're focused on delivering abundant outcomes and you're not thinking about AI, like why? How can you be? Everyone, as you know, earlier this year, I was on stage at the Abundance Summit with some incredible individuals. Kathy Wood, Moogadot, Venod Kostla, Brett Adcock, and many other amazing tech CEOs. I'm always asked, hey Peter, where can I see the summit? Well, I'm finally releasing all the talks. You can access my conversation with Kathy Wood and Moogadot for free at DMandis .com slash summit. That's the talk with Kathy Wood and Moogadot for free at DMandis .com slash summit.

28:20Enjoy. I'll ask my team to put the links in the show notes below. Moving on, this was a big week in AI. I think we've had sort of convergent AI announcements happening. I am curious why everybody is announcing on top of each other, but let's take a look. So today, May 20th, and tomorrow it's Google I .O. unveils PM and I updates and Android ecosystem bets. The 22nd and Thropic is debuting code with Clawed 2025. It's first dev conference and then also this week Microsoft build 2025 focuses on co -pilot, scale out AI, infra, and dev tooling. And of course, we've got Nvidia making announcements and we'll talk about Elon's GROC 2 .5 announcements.

29:08What's the, I mean, I'm in LA, Sleems in your Dave's in Boston, you're in the Bay Area. What's the, so what's the feeling like right now where you are? I mean, the, the, the, every day is a miracle. And that's not overstating the case. Every, I mean, just this on Friday opening, I released Codex, which is an autonomous software agent that simply writes pull requests, which for you to review, by the way, on your phone. If you like, like every single day, I mean, any one of these things could be the basis of an entire ecosystem and you know you're showing three for this week. It's crazy. We talked about Codex last week.

29:46Here's a fun article. Dave, well actually maybe I should say you're given to our brethren from of Indian descent, but Dave, you want to set this one up? India plans made in India ships by 2025 and its own GPUs in three to five years. You picked this slide. Yeah. This is really important to talk about coming on the heels of Saudi Arabia, which we talked about a couple days ago. So every country that wants to be competitive in the future needs to have some kind of an AI strategy, and then that boils down right now to having your own supply of chips because the chips are going to be unbelievably constrained for at least the next three or four years, maybe, maybe forever into the future.

30:27But some of these more consumer -facing use cases that involve voices and now multimodal imagery. They'll use up an entire GPU, two GPUs, four GPUs concurrently to get the best possible user experience, and that's not super expensive. So it's easily worth it for the consumer, but that chips don't exist. They physically don't exist. We're going to make 20 million new GPUs this year. It's no near enough to keep up with just basic call center use cases. So countries that have their act together are starting to think, do we need our own fabs. Well, India is saying, well, if we're going to compete, we definitely need fabs starting with 14 nanometer, but you got a long way to go from there.

31:07Okay, great. This is exactly the right thing to do. But then in their own internal research document and plan, it says, we expect this to be underutilized in bureaucratic. Like, holy crap. They're just trying to get a sovereign strategy together. So I will have to keep a close eye on it. But you know, they're probably, you know, on the order of 50, maybe a hundred other countries that need to immediately get on the tails of the same exact thing. We're advising one of the big Southeast Asian countries on exactly this. And we're really saying you have to develop your own fabrication capabilities.

31:43There's just no other way around it. And the learning that will come from that will be very powerful, one way or the other, if only to select who the best supplier is going for because there's going to be, we're going to end up with an abundance and a different architecture is coming from different places that will all pull together. India specifically, I mean, the bureaucracy is insane. There's so many overlapping federal, state level, et cetera, et cetera. It's, you know, I always talk to people that say, don't think of India as a country. It's more like Europe with 20 different major languages and different tensions and cultures, et cetera, et cetera.

32:20you have to look at it from that perspective and then it makes a little bit more sense. Yeah, one thing also, you know, Nvidia now today, the worth as of right now over twice as much as meta and almost twice as much as Google. And like, well, how can that be? And, you know, especially Google where, you know, the transformer was invented at Google, you know, Google Cloud, GCP is huge. They have their own TPU sevens, which are incredible. Like, does this make any sense? And that's, debatable. But the chip demand is such a dominant factor. And then underneath that, the fab shortage is such a dominant factor.

33:00And it's not a secret. It's amazing to me how many people don't know this. But Elon Musk is video podcasting it out. We absolutely need to accelerate our fab production. Now it's talking to Kaveh Kuzhr Shahi over at Allen & Company. And they're looking at these new $4 billion fabs, the normally a fab is a 20 to 40 billion dollar investment, but there's some new designs that are more around the $4 billion mark that might actually unclog the machinery. And those are really interesting to study and track. But for India, the perfect scenario is, hey, let's get some $4 billion fabs up and running, start on 14 nanometer, but quickly work our way down to 5 nanometer.

33:37So how quickly do these obsolete themselves? And if you're pumping out 14 nanometer GPUs, are they going to be useful and compete with the cutting edge at a TSMC? No, not at all. They're not even vaguely competitive. The lowly sold out for a long time. But the fabs themselves are actually very sustainable. Most of the machinery in there, even when you upgrade, most of the machinery you reuse. So the EUV component is an exception to that, most of the rest of the pipeline, you can reuse over and over again. So the key is just get on the map, get something up and running, and then you can work it down as you move forward, just reduce the lithography as you go.

34:22But I do think that the other thing that's really affecting this is if you have your fab act together, AI is getting really good at chip design. I was working on that a couple weekends ago. And so your cycle time can come way down. And so, you know, because there's going to be algorithmic breakthroughs all the time now, and also that will affect the designs right away. But you can automate that pipeline so that the new algorithm immediately gets a new chip design, get that right into the queue almost in real time. And then you have to wait a month or two for something to come out the other side.

34:52But that machinery, if you get that fully integrated, which no one's ever worked on before, or because you know, a microprocessor design would last for a full year. And so you never really thought about real -time design using AI automation. So now it's a completely different world just how this pipeline should shake out. And Nish, any thoughts on this one? Yeah, it's really interesting. I mean, for Zim and we do resolve the sort of shortage of chips, which I believe that we will. There's also, I mean, it's sort of sustains the need for countries to build a sovereign AI because the AI's embed values within them, which is why deep seek is such an interesting conversation, because arguably deep seek is trained with a set of values that may be a mismatch with Western values.

35:36In every country needs to think about what are the values that they want to imbue into their AI's. So there's a very, something very interesting here, which almost looks, I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with the Jones Act for ships that operate in or around US ports. They must be manufactured in the United States for national security purposes. I believe we'll see a sort of Jones Act for AI, where AI that operates in sort of sensitive context will have to have been trained nationally. That's a great insight. I don't think anyone's ever drawn that analogy before, but I love that insight. It's really clear that if you don't have a national strategy for compute, during this era where the chips are constrained, the highest value use cases are just going to buy out all the data centers.

36:24And it would be very natural for one or two economies, like US and China, to have a higher standard of living and then say, well, because I can overbid the Indian or the Ethiopian, they don't get access to any compute. And that goes on for one year, two years, three years, four years. And that's the natural cycle. If you don't have a national strategy to get compute for your citizens. So once you start getting behind, you're going to get way behind. And then you're economically unable to get back on the map. All right, our next story here. We've been hearing about this forever and Looks like we're on the verge of GPT -5 being being released So here's some tweets that went out just got to try an early GPT -5 just wow It can do anything I can do at a computer, but much quicker We actually made it and this is from at this is Chris at GPT -21 GPT -5 is in a red teaming This is not a guess.

37:20This has been confirmed. So, when I think about GPT -5, I think about self -recursive improving AI software, you know, recoding AI and leading to an intelligence explosion. I think about PhD level capabilities or multi -phd level capabilities. What do you think of when you hear GPT -5, Dave and What do you guys think about? Actually, before we jump into, there's so much to talk about there, but before we jump into it, you notice how they always jump on each other. So Google IO, oh my gosh, I got to get something right on top of them. This is not, you pointed it out before Peter, but this is not coincidence.

38:00And notice how Apple is even trying. They're just completely invisible. Yeah, we'll talk about that. Apple is opted out. Yeah. So what, yeah, what do you think about GPT -5? Yeah, I mean, if we've seen so many exciting model releases since the GPT -5 conversation started and we've seen a new model architecture with the Reasoning models. So, you know, I feel like we're seeing all the steps that point in the direction of GPT -5. I don't know that there's a big Unveil coming that will show us something that isn't implied by what we've seen so far. And if you look at the Reasoning models, which actually are just as important of an innovation as the language models, you know, they are these models that are are trained through reinforcement learning on specific domains, which is why they work so well for coding.

38:41But we still need to go collect the data sets and build the models for all of the domains that have a formal concept of correctness. So before we have something that is as broad -based as you're describing, Peter, which I'm sure we will have someday, there's just an enormous amount of model work to do between here and there. So look, my belief is we'll see something that looks more like 04 or 03 pro than a completely different animal. Yeah, I'm still waiting for some day, my cell phone to ring. I pick it up and it goes, I Peter, this is GPT -5, 20 to introduce myself. I'm here to need anything.

39:17That will become a spooky future. I want to model to your point, Peter, that is Jarvis, right? It just goes, okay, what do you need right now? And it can squand and make suggestions and just get to that personal level that we're waiting for. I interviewed Sam Altman at the MIT Media Lab this is a year and a half ago now. And I tried to get him to open up about parameter count where parameter count is going. And he said, look, we need to stop masturbating over parameter count. I'm going to shut down the crowd loved it. There's like a 1500 MIT students in the crowd. They loved it. But but then I now I can't track just the raw parameter counts.

39:53I'm hoping with GPT five, we can still distinguish between, okay, Here's the model producing an answer, which should be mind -blowingly intelligent. Then here's the chain of thought reasoning version. Because the chain of thought reasoning, like you said, and you're just adding immensely more feeling of intelligence than the core model is. I think OpenAI kind of wants to tie it all together and say, look, don't worry about it. It's just one subscription. Here's all the brilliance. We don't want to talk about what came from where. But you know, as an MIT -oriented research, I want to know actually what came from where which I can do with Lama, but it's becoming increasingly difficult with GPT -5.

40:33That being said, I think it's going to blow our minds. And it wouldn't be putting it out if it wasn't mind blowing. Everything, you know, the prior step functions have all been mind blowing. So let me ask you it as a question. What's, if you have a guess as to what capabilities are in GPT -5 or GPT -4, what would be a standout feature? Sure. Well, it's definitely, you know, everything's fully multi -modal now and the language and that has been phenomenal even in GPT -4, but once you start marrying it to images, you know, right now when you prompt it to create an image or a video for you or you show it an image, it's good and it's mind -blowing, but it's not perfect.

41:08I think, you know, if you take your digital nurse example that Anish was talking about, hey, let me show a rash on my foot. It's going to diagnose it perfectly. And you need a lot of long tail images to do that kind of stuff. So I expect there'll be a lot in that category since they've had more time to work on the multimodal that just didn't exist. You know, when they built GPT 4 and 4 .5. Yeah, keep on thinking about leopold situational awareness paper that came out a couple years ago, right, showing basically in the heels of GPT 5, just an acceleration of AI. Right. as if you want even human IQ points that these models are increasingly getting capabilities.

41:55So do we get an unconstrained intelligence explosion on the back of this? That's what for me is interesting. And you should be able to bring up real expecting in consumer. You know how in a podcast like this, if you don't like the way the audio recording comes out, but there were always tools to clean up audio. But now you have tools that will actually recreate it from scratch using your voice. You can create anything out of anything. You start talking about multimodal video, and you say here's a static image, it should be able to instantly turn it into a 3D, movable, any angle scenario. And I think it'll have that capability.

42:34I mean, I would argue guys, we have a lot of these capabilities. So CREA today can do what you're describing Dave and taking a static image and turning it into a sort with 3D Splat. In terms of how good the multimodal models are, like I can tell you, when I'm barbecuing at the house, I'll have GPT 40 looking at my hot peppers that are grilling and I'll be saying, are they ready yet? Are they ready yet? Are they ready yet? No, no, no, no, yes, they're ready. I mean, that's what I did this weekend. So that works. Okay, we've stepped away from the AI. Yeah, we've stepped away from the AI. I may have gotten too deep, guys.

43:08I may not be able to climb the way out. And then look, I actually think from if you want Jarvis Selim, I think we have Jarvis today in the form of operator. Operator to me is the most underappreciated new OpenAI launch and it's been around for a while and it allows anybody to use the web essentially, every UI becomes an API and you can use the web as a sort of control surface to do anything. The implications of that are so significant. Just think of the mundane use cases. As a consumer, every day I wake up and it goes in checks for or a lower auto insurance and a better personal loan rate for me and it spends the day scouring the web and it refinances all of my credit lines and then I get a push notification at the end of the day saying, hey, Nisha, I cleaned all this stuff up for you.

43:54You're going to save $200 a month. Please send my commission to this. Yeah, that's right. It's all possible today. I'd argue we have more, you know, just as you talked, you said there's like more ideas than team's Dave. like we have these magical miraculous knee capabilities that are under explored because there's so many of all right Let's let's head to to musk bill Elon musk unveils grok 3 .5 AI that reasons from first principles Let's hear it from Elon's voice directly. So really the focus of graph 3 .5 is If sort of I find a fundamental physics And a plane physics tools across all lines of reasoning and to aspire to truth with minimal error.

44:43Like there's always gonna be some mistakes that are made but aim to get to truth with acknowledged error but minimize that error over time. And I think that's actually extremely important for AI safety. Malphbick conclusion is the old maxim that honesty is the best policy. A quick aside, you probably heard me speaking about fountain light before. And you're probably wishing, Peter, would you please stop talking about fountain light? And the answer is no, I wouldn't, because genuinely we're living through a healthcare crisis. You may not know this, but 70 % of heart attacks have no preceding, no pain, no shortness and breath.

45:22And half of those people with a heart attack never wake up. You don't feel cancer until stage 3 or stage 4, until it's too late. But we have all the technology required to detect and prevent these diseases early at scale. That's why a group of us, including Tony Robbins, Bill Cap and Bob Hourry, founded Fountain Life, a one -stop center to help people understand what's going on inside their bodies before it's too late, and to gain access to the therapeutics to give them decades of extra health span. Learn more about what's going on inside your body from Fountain Life. Go to FountainLife .com slash Peter, and tell him Peter sent you.

45:57Okay, back to the episode. Okay. So how do you guys feel about the the basic concepts of Grakov, maximally truth -seeking AI? And then what I do love is the idea of applied physics as part of in first principle thinking as part of its ed structure. What does that sound like to you? Is it sound real? It's inspiring. No, it sounds consistent with what we're seeing from Reasoning models. So I think a Reasoning model trained around physics would do what he's describing. I do think honesty is the best policy. And I think this is exactly the right step. And I really salute Elon for having done, sort of, led the way in a bunch of areas, including having the Groc language models, allow you to interact with them in some ways that the big companies never would.

46:52So, and you know, those things we may consider sort of banal like the adult sexy chat features of Groc, but he's been pushing the edges and I think he's going to do the same thing with reasoning models and this is an example of that. Dave, well, truth is definitely in the eye of the beholder and varies by country and we learn that in Saudi this week in a big way. So, the message is right on target, but then the definition and the implementation, there's no single answer to it. And like I mentioned earlier in the podcast, the LLMs that we're using transformer -based are very good at interpolation, not quite as good at extrapolation.

47:30So it's going to fill in the blind spots between the training data that you give it and don't give it. I love the message of give it, you know, first principle is physics, but I think everyone's going to do that. It's not going to be controversial about physics. It's when you start including some X data and not other X data, or do you include all X data, that's where the devil's in the details. I'd be very curious to know though is Elon gonna roll out versions and or is there just one GROC? Cause then you're like, okay, GROC has this opinion of the world. Gemini has this other opinion, Chad GVT has this other opinion or are there 20 GROCs, 20 GVT and you tune them.

48:10So TBD. Yeah, so I mean, the biggest challenge we've had even in the social media space is echo chambers. And so the question becomes, are you able to take rock 3 .5 and build your own echo chamber? Or will it say, Peter, I'm sorry, your point of view is absolutely wrong and here's the data about why it's wrong. Is it going to challenge us in that way? I mean, Elon is pushing boundaries all the time and will rock call him or President Trump or Biden or anybody else on things that they say, which are not defendable by specific evidence. Well, one thing I think about a lot, and this is right in an issue as well, is how much can the user control?

48:57And especially when it comes to copyrighted material, because a lot of the most interesting and fun things you can do as a user involve copyrighted material, but the foundation model of companies are under a lot of scrutiny, and they have to be very, very, very careful with copyright material. But if you put it in the hands of the user to decide what they want to create, what they want to do, what voice they want on it, then it's outside of the control of Grock and then you can start using copyrighted material. It means easier for me to steal it than for Google or OpenAI to steal it. Yeah. Yeah.

49:30Okay. I mean, I think you have to be careful not to have a zero -sum conversation about that though, Davey. No, because if you look at, for example, sampling in hip hop was very controversial. The genre wouldn't exist without it. You now would argue that it sort of drove more royalties and traffic back to the tracks that were sampled than what have happened otherwise. So I do wonder if there is an a positive some version of a lot of this. Yeah, I would love to get you and Bill Gross at the same time talking about that because that's his whole focus at Peretta AI. You guys could go for probably an hour on that topic.

50:00That would be really interesting. Love to. So let's see. There's our next article. XAI deploys 170 Tesla mega packs for Colossus 2, the power backbone, and we can see in this image all those power packs. I mean, what we're seeing is just an extraordinary building race, faster than ever before. And I was just reading some articles that regulation of being accessed to power or building permits had been the constraints, but perhaps not now, perhaps people have taken and it constrains off regulation, building permits and so forth. Any comments on classes too? I mean, how big is it going to be doing now?

50:42How many GPUs will be? Yeah, I think it was 200 ,000 in the next wave. Mostly H100. The B100s are not ready yet. I thought the first class was upgrading to 200 ,000. And maybe classes 2 is going to be a million. But what's the order of magnitude between friends? Yeah, no, I was talking about the prior iteration. So this is what they're planning in the next iteration. And the next iteration? Yeah. Well, we'll see. I don't know, but I know the B100s are not in volume yet. So you're still using the prior iteration. What's amazing about this is, you know, Elon is immensely practical. And the reason the Tesla packs are so important is because when you use Nvidia chips for these massive scales, single training runs, the power spikes like crazy.

51:27Because it does these huge all collect all distributed operations that just massively communications intensive. And so then the GPU is kind of idle while they're waiting to transfer data and the power drops like crazy and it's fluctuating all over the place. You can't use lithium to store anywhere near enough energy to power these things, but you can use it to smooth out the power flow. So that's a pretty big advantage for I found this next article on Nvidia's breakthroughs. It's, so let me read this out loud. One spine of Nvidia's NV link fusion can transfer more data than the internet, holy shit.

52:09That's incredible. 130 terabytes per second, it was at GB200 chips, the next generation chips across 5 ,000 coaxial cables connected to 72 GPUs, a peak traffic of the entire internet, internet was 900 terabytes, terabytes per second. So the spine transfers 16 % more data than the entire internet. Let's take a listen to the gents and speak about this. And so this is the NV link spine. Two miles of cables, 5 ,000 cables, structured, all All coaxed and peen smashed and it connects all 72 GPUs to all of the other 72 GPUs across this network called NVLink switch. 130 terabytes per second of bandwidth across the NVLink spine.

53:05So just put in perspective, the peak traffic of the entire internet, the peak traffic of the entire internet is 900 Terra bits per second. This moves more traffic than the entire internet. Wow. I just feel like you like we're building some version of SkyNet right now. Well, when I call it Stargate, it's like all these things, the terminology lines up. I completely don't understand a single word of this. Like what is a spine of what? So it's the interconnect. So when one of the things that Elon did when he built colossus the first version, right, was he was able to basically co -locate all the GPUs and effectively for lack of a bit of term harmonizing to get them all talking to each other.

54:07And this, At least from my point of view, is it the capability to do that within a full Nvidia system? What do you think about this? Yeah, to me it actually illustrates something more mundane, which is so much of the work that we need to do is actually engineering work. Of course, there's work at the edge in research, but there's just so much raw engineering work that needs to be done to make these systems operate at scale. A lot of this constraints that we're going to see are going to be engineering related. And also a lot of the upside if you look at deep seek the reason it was so cheap to train Supposedly is a lot of it was just really clever engineering techniques So there's a lot of upside in in the day -to -day engineering work as well.

54:48That's what I see Yeah, and all of this stuff is happening Co -temporally Um, which is what makes it so exciting to be here right now You know really uh, you know about Daniela Russo and I were touring one of the biggest deployments actually it's the biggest b100 deployment So Daniela runs CSAIL at MIT because they I love in the world. And we were touring it together. And the chips are all liquid cooled down, which means those racks are dead silent. And I was expecting this really eerie, awesome silent experience. But the interconnect spine is still air cooled. And it sounds like a jet engine.

55:21And so it's right next to it. So it takes all the kind of the magic. What surprised me, though, is that the GPUs are all in a rack, $6 million a column. And then the interconnect is physically a rack over. I would have expected it to need to be much closer together to get optimal performance, but it's actually, you know, physically separated into separate columns for some reason. That really surprised me. But it's an incredible tour to take. You should definitely throw it on the to -do list. You do your A16Z all access card to anything. That's right. And this, you want to walk us through Google IOS happening right now.

55:59Are you excited? Yeah, please. Oh, please. Yeah, take it away on this slide. Tell us about it. No, no, no. I mean, it's so interesting. I've only had a chance to try a few of the products so far. I tried the AI mode. I was a little bit overwhelmed. Sorry, I'm overwhelmed. What stands out to me is notable. Number one, I think VO, their video models, video generation models are incredible. VO is probably the only video model that has been competitive with the Chinese models, which are less constrained on copyrighted training data, let's say. So I think Google has actually shown real strength in video generation.

56:37So that's one thing that I'm interested in spending more time with. The second is the price point that we discussed earlier, $250 a month. Has Google ever had a consumer product that's priced this way? We've even seen many. And it's extraordinary that they think that they can command these prices, and I think they will. I do think that their AI mode felt to me a bit like a watered down perplexity. It's just not that good. And it really shows the power of counter positioning because Google has spent 20 years making commitments to an ad -zico system and all the blue links and everything else that now the competitive setup is demanding that they break.

57:12It's very difficult for them to break those commitments and I think it's a real threat to their search monopoly. Yeah, I'd love to follow up on that. I noticed the stock went down pretty significantly during this, which is really unusual during this kind of an event. But I think it's for exactly the reason you were saying the cooler this is, and the more search moves over to it, the more it cannibalizes the core. Correct. That's exactly right. It's such a challenging position for them to be in. And look, the front door of the internet, they have been the front door of the internet for the last 20 years.

57:43It's the most interesting place to be on the internet from an economic perspective. The front door to the internet is up for grabs. Already my kids are telling me, Dad, everybody knows that chat GBT is better than Google. So there's a near -term threat from products and then there's a sort of long -term threat from generational change in the products that they prefer to consume. And the fact of the matter is there will be something that will come along and bypass open AI and Google and everything else. and we haven't met the founder yet, haven't heard what he's called, but that's just the reality.

58:16It's, I'll never forget when Jeff Bezos got at a, it was an all -hands meeting and he said, in 30 years, Amazon may not exist anymore, which is pretty extraordinary. So Selene, I think those, are those sirens happening in New Jersey? That they're here. That's a mix I think. In San Francisco. That means it's a San Francisco 30. That's right. For me, the one that struck me for this was the 3D video communications, the Google Beam. That's the one I'm really looking forward to. I think it will be really pretty amazing. We had that at, but in 360 this year. That's right. And I think with some roles that will be amazing.

58:56Yeah. It really does make a huge difference in your experience. You feel like you're sitting across the person. I remember when Cisco had their giant version that cost like a couple hundred thousand dollars for a set up, and now Google Beam, I didn't actually know if they're going to call it Beam. That's great. I mean, it's a consumer product. And then Project Aura, right? They're smart glasses. I think it's going to be with full Gemini integration. It's going to be great. I think we'll probably start to see AR wearables on the street. Remember the first time we started seeing people learning iPods.

59:40Yeah, and people on the street talking to themselves. Well, we're going to start to see these smart glasses as well. Can't wait. I mean, for me, it's the future of education as well. Let's move on here. Okay, so here's what we said a little bit earlier. It really drives me nuts that Apple still cannot spell my wife's name or my name properly when I dictated. I mean, it's embarrassing. So why Apple still hasn't cracked AI? This is an article that came out. Let me just read this real quick. Siri overhaul delayed repeatedly. New features failed internal tests and missed 24 and 2025 rollout goals.

1:00:25Apple spend billions on AI chips and startups, but internal disagreements on budget allocations led to lack of GPU supplies. Seven years after hiring X Google AI Chief John, Gendre, Apple is still lagging in AI versus its competitors. I mean, this is so sad. I mean, this could be a wound that truly damages Apple significantly. If someone had a beautiful high -end phone with full AI integration, this could be up for grabs. So I'm truly influenced high level theory on this. But before... For Anish, do you see in the valley truly great people going to Apple to work? I mean, Apple, it has a very sort of specific, slightly insular culture.

1:01:20So less people come in and out of Apple and my experience and come in and out of places like Google and meta I look I read this article do to I think that they have a real challenges that as a consumer are using Siri every day is like a stick in the eye I think they have a cultural problem because I really think that the you know AI has as we talked about earlier sort of discrepancy and sexuality You know persuasion all these aspects of the human experience that Apple has is tries to sort of polish away And then finally, I think they've not had a great track record of partnering. They really do want to build everything and that's served them well.

1:01:56But the models are moving too quickly and it's not a core capability of their technology team today. So I think they're in a pretty tough position with that said, fixing things like voice translation in Siri like, come on, it's just a daily reminder that they can't do AI. It's crazy. So here's my high level observation. I'd love to get your thoughts on it. the visionary integrator model. So Eric Schmidt, good friend of Peter, he talked when you guys were on stage, you know, on the side by side chairs, he talked for maybe 20 minutes on the visionary integrator model. And Eric called this story about, you know, he was walking through the streets of Silicon Valley with Sergei and Larry and Sergei said, Eric, that building right there, we need that building.

1:02:39And Eric said, we don't, we don't need that building, and Sergey said, yes, we do. And he said, okay, well, you're the visionary. If you say we need that building, then we'll make it work. We need that building. And he made it work. And that defined what is now the visionary integrator model that Elon Musk's perfected. He's got so much vision, but he needs a perfect, can finish my sentence as integrator for every business, every operation. So it's really obvious that Steve Jobs was the visionary Tim Cook was the integrator for years. But now if I go to Google Trends and I see how many searches are on Steve Jobs name versus Tim Cook's name versus Elon Musk's name It's 102 for Steve Jobs one for Tim Cook.

1:03:22So here 14 years after Steve Jobs has passed away Still twice as many people are searching his name as Tim Cook's name Meanwhile in Saudi this week Tim's not there all the visionaries are there So then you're like, well, who is the visionary, who's the integrator in the company? Because the visionary needs to attract talent, which means you need to be on this podcast or in Saudi Arabia or on all in or whatever it is that in that era gets people inspired to come and work for your company. That's a huge part of the visionary job. And I don't see that dynamic. And I'd love to get Google and throw Google in that same bucket.

1:04:00And we're just talking about Google's, you know, kind of little underwhelming I .O. But if you can't name the visionary and the integrator, then you're not following the known to work current model. Yeah, and having a company that is founder led where the founder can basically say I don't care what the board says or what Everybody else says this is where we have to go where it's an AI first founder led company or gonna eat the lunch of everybody else. Especially at scale, you need the founder led model just to cut through all the bureaucracy. Otherwise, you end up in terminal political fights and nothing gets done, which is what we're seeing.

1:04:41And I've had a few friends who've sold it in the Apple list of choices, but I think that there's gotta be still a solution that creates a visionary role, even though you can't obviously go back to the phone. And I've had friends of mine who had the chance to sell their company to Google or Apple. And I'm like, if you go to Apple, you will be swallowed up into a giant NDA, not be able to talk to anybody, not be able to go and speak at a conference or an event. And it's really a real challenge. Listen, Anisha, let me give you a chance to close out. I know you have to jump on a thousand board calls right now.

1:05:19grateful for you joining us. But any closing thoughts here on the AI world that you're deep into at this moment. Oh, thank you, Peter. Well, it was a pleasure, Sleem Dave. Sleem, I would love to join you in the garden for that bottle of wine next time. That is one closing thought. I love having these conversations. I do feel like this is the most human technology that we've ever invented. And I do think as you as you talk, Peter, about making the transition from a mindset of fear and scarcity to one of abundance. This is exactly the technology that unlocks that in a very tangible way. So, you know, I wouldn't trade being alive now for any other time in history.

1:05:56It truly is the most extraordinary time ever to be alive. I want to, I just acknowledge something. And in fact, you had at the beginning about the subjective technologies and how much of a difference that will make. That's the first time I've seen somebody clearly articulate the massive opportunity yet. So much appreciate. Well, yeah, now it's either the Jones Act, too, is something I've never heard before. So we're gonna borg like assimilate all of this stuff. Please do, Dave. If I look forward to hearing it, just as I adopted abundance from Peter, you guys have got licensees as now. Nice to be with you.

1:06:26Thank you for having us. I'm pleasure, Nish. Thank you. Bye -bye. Cheers. Every day I get the strangest compliment. Someone will stop me and say, Peter, you have such nice skin. Honestly, I never thought I'd hear that from anyone. And honestly, I can't take the full credit. All I do is use something called one skin OS one twice a day every day. The company is built by four brilliant PhD women who identified a peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it and again, I use this twice a day every day. You can go to oneskin .co and write Peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use.

1:07:02That's oneskin .co and use the code Peter at checkout. Alright, back to the episode. Alright, so who really enjoyed having a new Sean? I found this article somewhat interesting. It's a speculative scenario, a history of the future, 2025 to 2040. But it brings up a lot of great plans. I'd love to hear your guys thoughts on. Let's take it one at a time. So 2025 to 2026, the year ahead, it's the agentic AI boom. So GPT -05 is multimodal. the modal, it's coming out, log four, code, gen, floods, apps. So I think this is happening. It's not a really a prediction. It's just reporting on what's going on.

1:07:49It's going to 2027 to 2028. So for this one, hold on one second. I think the agenda is going to give way to vertical because there's so much opportunity in training vertical AIs on very specific use cases. I think that's going to complement the agenda. But in general, the paradigm is right. Yeah, and the prediction, the word agentech is going to get old very quickly. Yeah. It's just too vague and generic. What was the word that got old very quickly, like a couple of years ago? There was something, co -pilot as a term. Everybody started using co -pilot as a generic term. Yeah, and then the past.

1:08:24And I got so annoying so fast. I did. I think vibe -goating is going to come and go real fast too. It's a great term actually. I'll be sad to see it go, but you saw with codex, you can launch 20 concurrent processes and then stitch them back together again. And that's very different from ViveCoding. No one's named that yet. And Greg Brockman, when he rolled it out, said, yeah, I'm so bad at naming things. We're just going to call this codex. Like what? I know. I was like, huh? Did you call it codex already? Like a year ago? Yeah. So, 2027, 2028, we're gonna see breakthroughs. I think one of the things that's interesting is it's predicted that in the next couple of years, we're gonna start to see physics breakthroughs and mathematical breakthroughs.

1:09:11And we're gonna start to see fundamental technology moving forward and its ability to help us understand the universe even deeper. I find that. That for me is the biggest and most exciting thing because I think there's so much research data that we have not seen the signal from noise and I'm not extracted key observations from. I think AI let loose on that. We'll absolutely do magical things. 2019 to 2031, the end of white collar work. I believe that, you know, and this is an argument I have with a lot of people, what will it not be able to do? I don't see any job that You know, at that at this point we're talking about advanced super intelligence.

1:10:01Do you do you think this is true that we're going to start to see the end of all white color work by that point? The thing that's driving me nuts about this is that That's the end point, you know figure 2030 is the end point But it's pretty much a straight line between here and there And so the amount of job that dislocation and you know, in 2026, 2027 is gonna be like nothing we've ever seen. And I keep telling all the CEOs, you're way under planning. You need to look at every single person in your organization, all the individual contributors doing white collar work, and you need to get them to become AI users right now.

1:10:41Otherwise, you're condemning them to being sitting ducks. And you're like, well, it's two or three years in the future. They've been working and doing their career planning for 20 years. Yeah, they're stuck. Yeah, you've got to get them on the platform now and free up the time for them to learn and put formal education programs in front of them now, because if you draw a straight line between now and 2030, which is probably more like 2029, 2028, that's only a couple years for people to remap their entire career path. It doesn't need to be served by sticking your head in the sand and ignoring this.

1:11:17There's another thing as well, which is getting your employees and your kids and your friends to start thinking as entrepreneurs, right? Because I was having a conversation with a friend of mine, Dan Sullivan, and Dan, I was saying, you know, as this technology starts to truly become, you know, magical level, level, we can't even imagine right now. Is it going to quench my sense of purpose? Is it going to start solving things for me to the point where I'm not motivated? Dan said, has there ever been a time where more powerful technology has made you less motivated? I said, no. He says, why do you think that is?

1:12:01I said, because I'm an entrepreneur. I just dream bigger every time. There's more capabilities handed to me. And I think that mindset of finding problems, solving problems and letting everybody know they can become entrepreneurs. They can start to create new capabilities and companies, new nonprofits. They can start to dream at a level I've never before. Is an unleashing of the human spirit that is so important and creativity to boot. And you'll force it, which I think is really amazing. Well, I was when I was lecturing at Stanford two weeks ago, at the end of the lecture, the TA came up to me and said, man, you really won the hearts and minds of all these students.

1:12:43When you said the administration is completely out of touch with you. It's like, really? That's what I got them one over. But it's that dynamic where, you know, your kids are going through, my kids are going through where they're chomping at the bit to use AI because it's so empowering. And because the administration hasn't figured anything out yet and they're woefully behind, they're a barrier. But the corporate version of that is, well, we can't do this because we're regulated or because of data leaks or because of hallucinations. That's a bullshit excuse. It means you haven't figured it out at the exec staff level and now you're condemning your people to being behind the curve and to be a great observation.

1:13:24And it's just so anecdotal. A leadership failure. Yep, it's absolutely a leadership failure. in excuse the last quadrant in this slide here is 2036 to 2035 or 2336 and it's trillion robot economy I think it's supposed to be 2036 to 2045 I think it's a trillion dollar yeah and so it's an ocean that we're about to have a massive explosion a number of robots and it's not just humanoid robots of the robots of every shape and size at the same time that we have bio longevity cures. We unleash human longevity, you know, love that stuff. Let's move on here. Along the lines of what we just saw, here's an article I pulled in, AI designs antibiotic synthesis in that beats MRSA in mice.

1:14:17So this is multi antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria. And so researchers built an AI tool that designs new antibiotic molecules faster than traditional methods. And AI design antibiotics effectively treating MRSA infections that no longer respond to existing drugs. AI can design affordable, lab -ready antibiotics to fight the deadliest infections. This is the stuff that turns me on. This is the stuff that I just thrilled about our future. Well, that, and once you can personalize it to the individual, which we'll be able to do as a very quick next step, everything changes at that point. Yeah, for sure.

1:14:56All right. One of our last slides here is that Gemini 2 .5 benchmarks outperform competitors yet again in mathematics and coding and multi -modal. We're seeing Gemini 2 .5 Pro really beat out against OpenAI, both O3 and O4 model. And what it's not doing though is it's not winning the revenue race. You know, opening eye is just trouncing Google in revenues. And that's a dangerous place for it to be. I don't know if we need to say anything else about this, but it's Google's got incredible engineering talent and, you know, a massive number of wet squishy brains working on this stuff. All right, let's go into Beyond AI in the robotics world.

1:15:47Robotaxies, and this comes from our from unusual whales. So our investors, this is Kathy Wood, projects a $34 trillion enterprise value from Robotaxies by 2030. So you know, Kathy's been long on Tesla as I am. Here we see a few of the companies, this is WAMO and Soon CyberCab. That's massive. I mean, the idea that people are going to not take their cars anymore. I think when this really works, Dave and Selim is when my AI is automatically anticipating when I need a car and the car is showing up without me having to take it. Right. It knows my calendar. It sees me walking towards the front door and the car is just waiting for me.

1:16:39It's magical. Well, for God's sake, one can drive our kids to practice. That can come soon enough. Well, you know, it's within two, three years. So there you go. You've been waiting a lifetime, two or three years, you'll be all. I mean, we're supposed to have cyber to do the math for us. Thank God. It just, it's easy to lose track of the fact that a huge fraction of humanity, you know, the number one job in the world is driver. That's the number one title. But you know, then you look down the long tail of other things that people do. And just a huge fraction of humanity is doing things as routine as driver or, you know, screw circuit board in or assemble laptop lid or it just goes on and on and on.

1:17:25And so, if you sample humanity, you lose track of that when you're in a high tech hub and everybody's working on next -gen stuff and spaceships and AI, but just sample random person on the planet and what they do and the scale of it comes out to 33 trillion. I guess she would do the math. It is what it is. Well, here's an example. So Waymo outpaces lift in San Francisco. 300 Waymo vehicles now compete, complete more rides than 45 ,000 lift drivers in San Francisco. and each Waymo average is the workload of 150 human drivers operating 24 -7. Have you guys taken away them all right yet? Yeah. So I wanted to see Nick, so it was pretty mind -boggling and that was like ages ago, so it's gotten way way better since then.

1:18:12It has and you don't need to tip your driver. You know, you can have confidential conversations. You know, I'm always wondering if my driver's listening to my conversation as I'm just Yeah. And he had a discussion. He listened. I mean, you know, I add a back to back where I did a Weimo ride in San Faran the next day I was in New York and I was in a, you know, smelly yellow cab. And it was like, the thing that jumped out of me about the Weimo that I had completely overlooked is you can control the lighting and the music and they'll keep adding things to it. So it becomes like your, your little, you know, travel cabana and, you know, that flattering screen TVs that'll sink to your phone and it's going to be just such a different experience.

1:18:51It's not just about being driven. It's about control of your environment. So I haven't anticipated that. Yeah, I can't wait for the lie down beds so I can get a nap on my way to work. This was a fun article. I have a Wall Street Journal Apple to support brain implant control of its devices. It's teaming up with Synchron to bring brain computer interface to consumer devices. Now, albeit this is specifically for people who are impaired, who have severe disabilities. But this is the direction we're heading. Again, Ray's predicted BCI, our ability to connect everything to the Neocortex in the early 2030s.

1:19:37I just love seeing these little hints towards that direction. Yeah, these are the early signals that were on that, but it will become mainstream pretty quick after this. Well, I'm very much a humanist. I think it's kind of, it gets really creepy to me when you start punching directly into your neurons. But I'll put that aside for a second. Ray is going to emerge as one of the greatest prognosticators in the history of the world. After he going, you know, up and then way down and then 20, 29 artificial superintelligence predicted 30 years ago, it's gonna land like on the exact moment. It's super annoying because he's so outrageous but always correct.

1:20:19It drives that really crazy. It's funny. I don't know him. You guys know him personally very well. I don't know him personally but the books were so inspiring to me. I mean just reinforcing everything I was already thinking but then really quantifying it. So I just, I'm gonna love that. When it lands right on the minute, Yeah, it'll be great for singularity as a brand too, I think. Yeah. All right, let's close out our conversation today on new shots with a look at crypto once again. Here we go. We're seeing US and next stablecoin bill in 2025. So prediction market, polymarket, shows a 95 % probability that the US will pass a stable Bitcoin bill in 2025 up 35 % from prior weeks.

1:21:07Any comments on this, Liam? I think this is gonna be huge. They have to first pass a budget, so let's give them some time to figure that out. But when they figure out the stablecoins, this will completely unleash the crypto world and give it a bridge from the crypto economy into the real world economy. And I think all sorts of things become possible. but I think the opportunity for AI agents to do micro transactions using this is going to be amazing. So huge options. Yeah, I think that last point is by far the most important one that we should track closely week to week because the ability to move back and forth instantaneously digitally from a stable coin back to Bitcoin or whatever you want is intimately tied to the agent agent micro transactions.

1:21:52And you know, that's going to be, I mean, we get Kathy Wood to do the math for us, but But that's going to be probably the biggest part of the economy by 2040 is those transactions. Oh, yeah, there will be hundreds of billions of agents each doing micro transactions. This is the half of the internet. The internet when he was built, he allowed us to share imagery and data and documents, but not financial transactions. This is the other half of the equation. It's coming fast. We're playing with codex pretty much all weekend. You can spawn agents to do all kinds of things for you. And the interface they put on front of it, each time you spawn an agent, it creates a new row.

1:22:37And there's a little bar turning. You're like, this interface, right out of the gate, I want to do a thousand agents. And then it's going to be a million agents. And it's immediately obvious that we're all going to be fighting for inference time compute. But you can think of things so fast and deploy so many agents to do them for you so quickly, like the gating factor is, well, I can't get the compute in this interface, obviously, it's not going to support the scale that I need either. Well, the thing that Anish said as well is having his agent going out and shopping for cost insurance or mortgage rates and such.

1:23:11So I love that idea. You're going to be able to optimize everything. then you're going to have your agents constantly searching the web at minimal cost. And then I want an army of agents that are going out and making investment trades for me, going out there and just an army making money. For me, I've been waiting for my boys, my two boys to actually get excited about trading crypto, but I think the agents will get there first. Well, you know, another topic I wish we had more time with the niche to talk about it, because I know he's big on disposable code and personalized code. And like, well, what's an example of that?

1:23:52Well, the example Anish usually gives is, imagine if you're using Suno or UDO to create a song, but the song is about this exact podcast. And it has content in it that's related to our topics today. That's a great theme song to play as a pre -roll. So the software created this thing specifically for the podcast. It uses a fair amount of compute, but still like 12 cents, no big deal. Well, you created it and you throw it away. Well, I can take up a lot of those things. Let me spawn all those agents to create them, and I'm going to throw them away when they're done. That's a lot of compute. It's so worth it.

1:24:23But where's all that compute going to come from? Well, my last slide for today, still on a Bitcoin role to at this moment, Bitcoin's running at $106 ,000, roughly $500. Pretty good. It's a, we're approaching near highs. And this article came out, Bitcoin has become America's reserve asset. More Americans own Bitcoin than gold. That's pretty extraordinary. I think this was kind of predictable just because it's so much more democratized. There's so much a thousand times easier to own Bitcoin than it is still on gold. So I would have expected it to see the sooner. The thing that I think will be coming, it really powerful is when we have people owning a gross level, more Bitcoin than they do a gross level of gold.

1:25:08I think that'll be a major pleasure as always gentlemen onwards. It was a week in AI. We have one last thing Peter. How's that? Well, I think Dave, you have a slide or a photograph. Do you want to just show that? I'll stop sharing. Can the team pull it up for me? Yeah, or I can show something. If you have it. Given that it's your birthday Peter, we found in MIT photograph of you from from a ways back and we thought this was actually worth showing. So talk about AI agents in retro. We want to hear that guys voice. Yeah, I get this from Matt Rita. He sent me with an emoji of a hair pick along with it.

1:25:56So I didn't include that. But we were lucky to drag it out of the archives because I know it can come back around. It's quite a right I want to show you one other thing though. Hold on hold on. I want to show you one other thing. I've got two images that I thought were really interesting. Where's my image gone? Oh my god, we have to cut this out somehow. I mean, I respect you guys. I spend my birthday doing a podcast with both of you. How's that? Hold on. Let me share this now. Congratulations on happy birthday, by the way. Thank you, pal. Thank you. I started my birthday by doing a hundred continuous pushups in a row.

1:26:32So still still driving that very nice and then All done. skateboard. Is that part of the celebration? Yeah. I was always there. Yeah. There are two favorite photographs of you. One is this little 3D printed image of yours. But I kept and then one of the the next generation. Oh my god. Yes. My boy. Three of our boys all born within like a month of each other. They're now all turning 14. Yeah. That doesn't look like, that doesn't look like me, but anyway, hey. And I wanted to show what, one little more surprise. Lily, come on along. Okay. We brought you a birthday cake. Oh, thank you. But unfortunately, you can't eat it because you're a star.

1:27:23Nothing on your neck. let's her salmon in middle of it. I'll reach out using Google's beam.

1:27:38Well, you know, you got around Cambridge talk about you all the time. I don't know if that photo that photo was long, long gone. Yes. I'll get out of the archives, but I'll just start it all over again. But to see you know, when yours are ringing, that's everyone out here talking about you. Thank you, brother. Thank you, thank you. Love you both. Have a beautiful day. Thank you, Seleme. And happy birthday again from Saturday or Sunday whenever it was Saturday. Yeah. All right. Take care, Dave. Take your sling. If you could have had a 10 year head start on the dot com boom back in the 2000s, would you have taken it every week?

1:28:13I track the major tech meta trends. These are massive game changing shifts that will play out over the decade ahead from humanoid robotics to a GI quantum computing energy breakthroughs in longevity. I cut through the noise and deliver only what matters to our lives and our careers. I send out a Metatrend newsletter twice a week as a quick two -minute read -over email. It's entirely free. These insights are read by founders, CEOs, and investors behind some of the world's most disruptive companies. Why? Because acting early is everything. This is for you if you want to see the future before it arrives.

1:28:50And profit from it. Sign up at demangus .com slash meditrens and be ahead of the next tech bubble that's demangus .com slash meditrens.