The Latest in AI: Job Loss, Elon & Sam Altman Chip Race & the "AI Bubble" w/ Brian Elliott (Blitzy), Emad Mostaque & Dave Blundin | EP #197

26:21But if we look at the previous one, like just put it in context, we had our launch party at Stability, I think three years ago, the Exploratorium. And we had a slide go up saying, we're the 10th fastest cluster in the world at 4 ,000 chips. And now people are talking about 114 ,000 million chip deployments. the reason for that is literally just because of this economic thing the amount of you think the world of economic labor that you can do the ai can do it's gone from maybe i think one or two percent now to in the next few months it'll probably be 50 in the next year actually and so this is all complete this isn't a bubble this is like all very reasonable because your tam has gone up your It's gone up so much.

27:05And so, yeah, it's going to be a crazy couple of years now with this. And there's just not enough energy, compute, infrastructure, anything. Amazing. This is Greg Brockman on that very subject. I think part of the 2030 outlook is we will be in a world of material abundance. I think that AI is going to make it much easier than you could almost imagine to create anything you want. And that will probably be true in the physical world. in addition to the digital world in ways that are hard to predict. But I think it'll be a world of absolute compute scarcity. And we've seen a little bit of what this is like within OpenAI, right?

27:42The way that different research projects fight over compute or that the success of the research program is determined by the compute allocation. And so one thing we think about a lot is how do we increase the supply of compute in the world, right? We want to increase the intelligence, but also the availability of that intelligence. And fundamentally, it is a physical infrastructure problem, not just a software problem. Could you imagine the ongoing conversations inside of OpenAI and sort of the arguments about, no, I need to compute to do this project? You know, everybody's sort of vying for their own special.

28:14Crazy. I don't know if you remember, Peter, but when we were at OpenAI headquarters a few weeks ago talking to Kevin Wheel. Yeah. We asked, or I asked him anyway, about the division of labor between him and Mark Chen and Sam and Greg Brockman. And he said, well, Brockman's out there just getting compute. Getting compute. We need compute like you. So he's just out there finding it. So, yeah. I kind of miss the days when Greg and Sam used to do these things together. Sam is on the road constantly now, so Greg has got to be in the house finding the compute. But he used to do a lot more podcasting.

28:48It was really nice when they were a two-person team. But I don't know. Everything he said is exactly what you were just saying. The theme of today, abundance everywhere except compute scarcity. you know there will be some kind of a breakthrough on compute right and iman what's your bet on where we might get some sort of new breakthroughs at 10x efficiency or power use or you know is it going to be from quantum is it going to be from thermodynamic compute what do you think i think it's probably a data story right now um like if you look at the tongi model by the alibaba quen It's their AGI lab next to their Quen lab.

29:30They managed to score, I think, 22 % on humanity's last exam with 3 billion active parameters with a self-reinforcing continuous learning model. That runs on a smartphone. And they did it through improved data. Again, this thing David said about better RL, better kind of thing. I think there's a data hybrid reasoning and other things coming together to optimize for specific tasks in the economy. Again, that 50 % of tasks. that's how you can route this down to be highly efficient and we don't know where the lower bound is on that because we could have more breakthroughs we could have improved chip performance again we're going up like five ten times a year on chip performance and it's just very hard to extrapolate this the only reason you can say it's gonna reach this crunch point is simply because the amount of work that can be done in the global context is so large at this inflection point there's no way that we'll be able to get them efficient enough.

30:28That's the only way we can kind of look at that. And if I could just riff on that for any of the entrepreneurs out there, what Imad just said is a really good barrier to entry if you work on it within your domain. So if you said, hey, there's all this technology and research related to transfer learning and distillation that allows me to get the exact same quality of result with 1 % of the parameters and therefore 1 % of the compute, well, then by all means do it. Right now, we're all used to, oh, I can just get an AWS account tomorrow and I can just sign up and pay and it'll be there for me forever.

31:02It's like a utility. That whole cloud computing era, they tried to convince us it's all a utility. It will always be there. Well, lo and behold, nope, it's a scarce resource. Greg just said it. He's always right. It's not a utility. Have a plan. You need a plan today because Bill Gross was saying every mountain with a lake next to it has already been bought, you know, for pumped hydro power storage. You missed the opportunity to buy your mountain. Don't miss your opportunity to reserve your compute because it's now or never because these things get locked up very early. You know, this is a competitive world.

31:40Dave said a hundred times. Literally, if you have task specific data sets, distillation, and you have the right verifier, it is 100 times difference in the cost of executing a particular task. Yeah, this is a perfectly viable business plan. This is what happened with storage. If you think that Dropbox got so big, right? They were the first folks to use S3 and not have to have their own data centers. And they were storage. There was 100 other storage companies. They were just 10x cheaper than everybody else. And they scaled off of that and built a very powerful company. Same thing applies to models.

32:12Looks like OpenAI may get the shackles pulled Offit. So OpenAI reaches a deal with Microsoft to allow restructuring from a nonprofit to a for-profit. So OpenAI is targeting a$500 billion valuation as part of that. And I know what it's like to flip a for-profit or nonprofit into a for-profit. I did it with Singularity University many years ago. And you need to leave a certain amount of capital and capabilities inside the nonprofit. I won't go through the machinations of how you do it, but as they do this, OpenAI's nonprofit will be left with about$100 billion in capital. It will be the largest nonprofit endowment out there, which is amazing what they'll do with it.

33:01You remember, Dave, we met with, I won't mention who it is, at OpenAI, and they likely will be in charge of the nonprofit, And they have incredible vision for what they want to do to go and solve humanity's biggest problems with it. So if you guys remember, Microsoft invested a billion dollars in 2019, another$10 billion in 2023. And they're estimated today to own about 30 % of open AI. That's unconfirmed. But that's what the estimate is. And this sets them up basically to be able to become a multi-trillion dollar company. Microsoft can't lose. Microsoft can't lose. For context, on the earlier part of the conversation, OpenAI is twice the size of Harvard's endowment fund, which is for the longest time and the largest endowment fund of all time.

33:55So from a nonprofit status, OpenAI in just a couple of years, doubling the size of the endowment fund. Can you imagine the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft right now? So, for example, when the NVIDIA OpenAI deal was struck, Microsoft was notified the day before, right? So, you know, OpenAI used to get all of its compute from Microsoft, and now they've been sort of kicked to the side, and they're just growing, you know, unshackled. Fascinating. I remember when Macheo C-son kind of had that commitment for$100 billion to OpenAI and then someone else sat here about it and he said, well I'm good for my$90 billion I think that Jensen is definitely good for his$100 billion and you know like now, these are all crazy numbers, right?

34:49When Microsoft invested$10 billion or a billion we were like, that's big now it's like, only$100 billion for the non-profit? It's second largest. And we don't even blink at$100 billion being invested in them. Yeah. Because literally they will spend, they will have a trillion dollars of build out. And I think Elon Musk said something again recently. It was like, someone's like, what about Anthropic? He was like, they never had a chance. Because really, who can scale now to compete? XAI, Google, OpenAI, and probably Meta, you know? Speaking about that, Anthropic. This goes to our next slide, and the title here is Zuckerberg.

35:28Zuckerberg says, better to lose billions than be late to superintelligence. So he's committed to invest$600 billion in U.S. data centers by 2028. Why? Because I don't want to be second to superintelligence. Crazy. It's just staggering. The sheer size is staggering. But also the lives these guys are living is completely unprecedented in the world. I mean, Zuck was just at the White House a week ago having dinner with like, look at the table, look at these people. And then they're all, you know, the president is saying, how much are you going to pump into the U.S. economy? And Zuck is like, 600 billion.

36:06This has not existed ever in the world before. And I don't know, this next couple of years is like nothing in human history. Sounds like inflation to me. It's because the economy is dependent on its capital stock. You know, like we build our universities, our factories and everything. But basically all this is, is it's the investment for the new economy. The economy five, 10 years from now is run by AI. It's powered by AI. So it makes sense that you'll spend trillions of dollars on this. And these guys want to get it first from an economic point of view. But then there's more than that. Like, do you remember the story of how OpenAI got going with Larry Page from Google and Elon Musk?

36:49Yeah, Larry Ellison. Larry Page from Google. I was there for that argument where Larry called Elon a speciest Yes, Peter, do you want to tell the story there? Oh no, go ahead It's because they were discussing intelligence and Larry Page was like, you know, digital intelligence he was like, can I overtake humanity and that's fine and Elon's like, no, humans Larry Page is on record not on record, but there again have been reports that he said he's willing to make Google bankrupt to get to super intelligence first. They weren't because they make so much money. But this is big stakes now. I think it's worth just stepping back and comparing a day in the life of Mark Zuckerberg to Sam Altman.

37:35Sam has literally getting attacked constantly from every side, especially by Elon, while needing to beg for money from any source he can get it, traveling all over the world, trying to hold this together while becoming, you know, taking a nonprofit to make it into a for-profit, which is a logistical nightmare. He's dealing with all of that. Zuck just needs to call his CFO and say, you know what? Go ahead and divert that money back into data science. And I'm going to go have a Mai Tai. They're printing money on my ship in the Caribbean. The market will reward him for it, too. It's an unreal existence, Dave.

38:13You said it right. I mean, I don't know how you remain grounded as a CEO of one of these companies when you're speaking about literally trillion-dollar deals that you're in. I mean, it's crazy. Yeah, that's a good concern too. I kind of trust the people that struggle, have either struggled before in their lives or are struggling right now. But you do worry a little bit about just the scale of power in a few people's hands. and what decision they might make tomorrow. But we are – just to remind everybody, we are in a war footing. Going back to what you said a few minutes ago, Imad, we're in a war footing getting ready for the next economy, just like we came out of World War II with a brand new interstate highways in the United States and aerospace and automobiles.

39:05We're gearing up for a new economy, which will displace the old economy. and will be tens of trillions of dollars, include robotics and will be close to$100 trillion over the course of a decade. This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, autonomous software development with infinite code context. Blitzy uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for hours to understand enterprise-scale code bases with millions of lines of code. Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements. The Blitzy platform provides a plan, then generates and pre-compiles code for each task.

39:49Blitzy delivers 80 % or more of the development work autonomously, while providing a guide for the final 20 % of human development work required to complete the sprint. Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity increase when incorporating Blitzy as their pre-IDE development tool, pairing it with their coding co-pilot of choice to bring an AI-native SDLC into their org. Ready to 5x your engineering velocity? Visit Blitzy.com to schedule a demo and start building with Blitzy today. All right, let's look at what comes up next here. Dario Amadei on Claude, designing Claude. This is a quote from Dario.

40:33He says, Claude is playing a very active role in designing the next Claude. We can't fully close the loop, but the ability to use the models to design the next models is not yet going super fast, but it's definitely started. How long before it's going super fast, Imad? It's the takeoff point right now. There was a recent interview with Tree Dao, who is like the man for writing CUDA kernels on NVIDIA. so he's at together ai and he came up with flash attention that literally increased performance 30 and he's like i use claude code and i'm at least 50 better and this guy is the cream of the cream of that and we've seen that from top people already that self-recursive loop it's coming inevitably we're already seeing tpus being designed by ai and sam altman recently said again fantastic ceo fantastic capital ways but he said his plan is to get one gigawatt of new compute on every week with a fully integrated system that could also be training its own models so i think we're moving full stack vertically integrated like chip silicon to model feedback loops and there's no way that won't speed things up even more can you feel the acceleration oh my god i mean look i spent about six years of my life just purely building neural network and researching neural network algorithms and code.

42:01And it's very similar to discovering math, which Alex is always talking about. So Alex Wisner-Gros on this pod is predicting, I think it was 18 months, we'll be solving all math. Iman, you've been on this bandwagon as well, right? No, no. The AI is, I mean, look at winning the gold medals in the ICPC and the math Olympiads and things like that. you parallelize it like we've been running 1000 lean provers in parallel analyzing things you know like next week we're releasing a full stack of economic proofs that you just can't argue with for everything these ai's like once you actually apply them it's not it's not like you have one like one genius is enough but dario said data centers of geniuses checking each other's work in parallel obviously you're going to get that next step up from that and we've seen things like um terence tau was formalizing some various proofs and they only got like 20 30 percent the way in paralyzing that i believe it was morph labs that did that they managed to do the full proofs in like two days so yeah i think it's a good chance i have no idea what the implications of that is i also remember noam brown over at open i when we were there was saying that their progress in core AI research is gated by compute now and not by researchers.

43:27They have a backlog of ideas. They just don't have enough compute to try them all. So pretty soon the AI will also be generating the ideas, and then the backlog is purely compute. So that's where Elon is saying, well, I'll have the most servers, therefore I'll win the race. But it'll all be compute constrained. There's a window of a year or two here where it's also idea constrained. So lots of opportunity for people to think really hard during this window. But very soon, it'll switch to AI-generated ideas. You know,$10 billion here,$100 billion there. Pretty soon, you're talking about trillions.

43:59So Alphabet becomes the fourth company, I like to call it, to reach the four-comma club. This is to reach$3 trillion market cap. It joins Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA in this$3 trillion market cap club. Stock is up 33 % in 2025 and 55 % over the past year. I was talking about last time, for me, Google has been an extraordinary bet. Any comments here? I mean, I think the prediction markets still hold Google and Alphabet to be the long-term winner. Iman, do you buy that still? They're fully integrated with thousands of amazing talents, Demis at the head of DeepMind. And they've got the reach, right?

44:45So you started to see AI search results. it's not quite good enough because they're doing the crappy models but when gemini kind of three flash is better than gemini 2.5 pro the directionality of where things are going again they've got the full stack they don't need to pay the nvidia tax they can build everything themselves and they have metas cash so why wouldn't they be up in the lead there yeah yeah yeah and just add one thing to that too we we announced or we we spoke about um open ai doing their own chips with Broadcom. But they just started. Google's been working on their TPUs for years.

45:21So they're years ahead in that vertically integrated solution. They've been their own customer for a long time because they run the Google on the TPUs. TPUs are probably five times more power efficient than NVIDIA chips, and they have better interconnect for large context models as well. So they're pretty much ideal for what's coming through now. Nice. How do you know that, by the way? I thought that's impressive knowledge. We use thousands of TPUs. We were down there when they didn't have jacks. Oh, you had stability? You had hands-on access? Oh, no way. Yeah, because they pulled them from the market, because they're using them all internally now.

45:56So it's kind of hard to get performance specs. That's really useful information. Well, they might actually start selling them soon. We'll see. We'll see if they can, yeah. I'm betting I'll put a little money on no. They won't be able to make enough of them. They'll eat them all themselves. Yeah. We'll see. There was a little video clip put out by Mustafa Suleiman, the CEO of Microsoft AI, which I found somewhat compelling. Let's take a listen to it. At the moment, these models are still one-shot prediction engines. You ask a question and you get an answer. It produces a single correct prediction at time step T.

46:33They can't lay out a plan over time. and the way that you decide to go home this evening is that you know you know first to get up from your chair and then open the door and then get in your car and that is just a computational limitation and just as today there's a kind of super intelligence that is in our pocket that can answer any question on the spot like we dismiss how incredible it is right now is magic in your pocket. Now, imagine when it's able to not just answer any question about poetry or some random physics thing, but it can actually take actions over infinitely long time horizon. Just that capability alone.

47:12I think that we basically have that by the end of next year. So I found that compelling. Imad, Dave, what do you think? Well, I love the core point that, look, this is absolute magic and it came into the world so quickly. And there's so many ways to take advantage of it that We've only begun to scratch the surface. I do disagree that the planning ability, I don't know when this was recorded, but the planning ability has gotten pretty damn good pretty damn quickly. So this might have been like three weeks ago, but today is different. Ancient history. I mean, look, do you think a Tesla can self-drive from one side of America to the other?

47:51100%. Yes. That's planning. That's crazy, yeah. And then just think, you hook that up with a vision model, so it's making notes and it's writing the great American novel as it drives. Like, again, we actually have all the tools there. And in fact, Brian, you're the expert in this, right? Like, what have you seen in terms of massive long-term stuff? You can achieve AGI-type effects at the application layer, right? This long-term horizon of planning can't be done extremely well at the model level. But from a user or consumer, who cares, right? It's about what I experienced, which is a long horizon plan given to me from a set of models.

48:30So I would say we are in this reality today for a number of domains, including software engineering. Nice. We had the CEO of Replit on the pod recently, and I love this quote about how to use agents. Let's take a listen. I'm one with true, unique domain expertise. Let's say I'm a lawyer who is top in the world at solving certain cases that are very rare. And so I have this domain expertise that I'm not going to share in the open source. I'm not going to sell to Scale AI so that they can sell to OpenAI or Google, all those. I'm just going to keep this resource to myself. But the way I would monetize it, instead of myself going and selling my services directly, I would like imbue this knowledge into an agent that becomes this very specialized agent in this very specialized domain.

49:29And then I can scale myself. So I like that. You know, one of the questions that we've had asked in the comments on this pod, and we do read the comments from all of you listening or watching on YouTube, is, okay, You talk about what you should do if you're 18, 19, 21. What should you do if you're in mid-career? How should you be thinking about AI? This sounds like a pretty good example. Dave, how would you answer that? Someone mid-career? Yeah, that's a tough one. Maybe I'll bounce that over to you, big brains. The concept I totally get, like I've got domain knowledge. I'm a lawyer. I'm a doctor.

50:07There's very, very specific domain knowledge all over the world. And I know the RLHF companies like Invisible and Mercor are killing it, wrangling all that knowledge and getting it into the models. So the question then becomes, OK, I want to monetize that. But once it's ripped off my brain, they may pay me a lot for a month or two. But then what? Then I've just completely dumped my knowledge into the AI. Do I have any value? So I don't have a good answer off the top of my head for how to capture that. But I would say there's no barrier to starting a company. You don't have to be 21 to start a company.

50:45You absolutely – there's so much greenfield opportunity out there. And I do love these companies that have a regulatory barrier or a vertical domain, deep knowledge barrier. Just start a company using AI in that category. That's how you might then say, OK, now it's sustainable and I can make a career out of it. So that's always a good choice. But you've got to leave your day job and go do it. I would translate that to find a good problem that you understand deeply that no one has yet solved and go build around that problem. It's never been a better time for these domain experts. I'm more bullish than Dave is on this 45-year-old audience.

51:23And if you think about software has never been easier to build. That is true. But software is just two things. One, it's sort of like the technical design and build of it. But you're imbuing a business process and a set of flows and decisions that you need a user to make. Like these insurance folks, these financial services folks, they're world-class at understanding how to do that portion of pricing products dynamically to the market. And that has very little to do with technology selection. So we can empower these folks with platforms like Pletsy to build large-scale systems, enterprise systems that are purpose-built for that 45-year-old insurance underwriter or financial product person.

52:02And this has never before been possible. Yeah. I've been thinking a lot about this. And, you know, Nassim Taleb, the black swan guy, has this great thing, concept called intellectual yet idiot. About very well credentialed people who just don't have any skin in the game, so they don't give a damn, right? That's a flaw of many of our systems. AI models are intellectual yet idiot. They don't give a damn. One of the most important things is actually giving a damn about the context about when these are implemented. And if you think about the long tail of these implementations to solve problems, if you actually give a damn and you can communicate it and be that intersection that's where you get the most leverage you actually need to understand the consumer and how they operate today you need to actually have some skin in the game in the way that you do that and i think people underestimate that because we just assume the technology will sweep because people do these analyses and they understand the way we do no there needs to be that translation layer and you need to actually be able to communicate and show that you give a damn so that your advice ima to that you know 40 45 50 year old individual who's like how do i apply ai to do something significant in my life i think that when you look at the problem there is the intellectual part hey i've got cognitive surplus now from these tools but the next part is getting to understand the organization that you're in if you're within your organization trying to improve it the real like things and balances and who you need to communicate these things to in the appropriate way.

53:34And then if you're servicing someone, having that really high touch consumer aspects of it where you're helping them through something that's very scary and has huge potential will pay a massive amount of dividends. And again, you can use the AI to help you communicate and things like that as well. That human touch, I think, is underestimated, particularly as we, again, diffuse from just the early adopters to the vast middle of this industry. Yeah, we're just at the beginning of this game. Well, Peter, that video was Amjad Massad. Do you want to tell the story about how easy it is to build software from maybe?

54:10So, you know, I was flying from Santa Monica to up to San Francisco to Stanford. Dave was already there and we were interviewing and Salim was there, too. We're interviewing Amjad about about Replit. And, you know, I had downloaded Replit, but I'd never really used it. And so I'm like, damn, if I'm not going to give it a try. So I have Starlink on my SR-22 turbo, my airplane. So I'm flying the airplane on autopilot. I've got the Starlink antenna on the front. And I plug into Replit. And I coded up a mindset app on the flight there. And it was fantastic, right? So it was like that was so easy. Zero requirements.

54:52I just needed to know the single most important thing. Again, if you're new to this, if you're just a fan of this, if you haven't played at all, right? Replit's amazing. There are other platforms, Lovable and others. It's critical for you to just try. Just try and play and bring a curiosity mindset, your playful mindset. And if you know what you want to exist, the AI systems will help you get that into existence. And it's only going to get easier. It's only like your domain knowledge will be extremely important and the product creation, you know, use Blitzy. It'll be easy, easy, easy. So before I drop, before I move past the conversation about Replit and Vibe Coding, Brian, you're taking this level of coding to a brand new level.

55:42How do you apply this to industries, to entrepreneurs? What are your thoughts? There's two classes of software, right? There's this disposable widget-based software that, Peter, you built with Starlink on your plane, right? And this is the idea of getting this concept into a prototype. And then there's enterprise-scale software. I'm going to have thousands or hundreds of thousands of users. I'm going to have concurrency. I'm going to have good caching, right? And that's the part of the system where Blitzy fits in. And so everyone's having this Peter experience, right, where I can create something quickly, and then they're getting to the enterprise scale, and then they're getting none of those gains, right?

56:17And so we've brought the VibeCoding speed to the enterprise scale. And we can do that for the new entrepreneur building the insurance product, or we can do it for the existing enterprise that's doing large-scale development. But the idea is like velocity from an engineering perspective is dramatically higher than it's ever been. So it's never been a better time to build. Do you interface with mid-level managers and companies, or is this got to be a top-down for people who want to use Blitzy to sort of improve their product and capabilities? Yeah, anyone that leads a large engineering team comes and works with us.

56:50So lots of times CTOs and CIOs will come meet me directly. But you also have, you know, VPs of engineering that say, I'm going to make my company go faster. I'm going to weigh in and I'm going to bring Blitzy in and be the first to do it. And we love those folks, too. Got it. Got it. Great. Here's our next one comes from Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon. He's like, wait, wait, wait, you know, we're going to build glasses too. Meta is not going to lead the way here. There's got to be someone else. So Amazon is developing their own AI glasses to challenge Meta. And what I found fascinating is that these glasses are going to be, there's a consumer version, But importantly, there is a version that's going to be used by their drivers, and the drivers are going to be recording everything.

57:36And for what use? It's to train the future robots. So this is codenamed Jayhawk, expected to launch in late 2026 or early 2027. And today, the company plans to pilot 100 ,000 units by Q2 for its workforce of 390 ,000 drivers. So, Imad, I think you said something about this earlier, right? This is how we're going to get the data to train up new systems. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of obvious, isn't it? Like, you're going to have seamless data to train up the robots of the future from these kind of fleets. just as to replace the workers of the future it will just scan all your slack messages and code commits and create a virtual version of you yeah but the reason is the technology is good you know it's been 11 years since google glass i think it was 2014 wow you remember that they look stupid at the time i remember now the new metaglass yeah they work and they are useful and they are light so how can you do your job now without being augmented i think this is going to be the next part.

58:41And it just feeds back because the glasses and the guidance will just improve until it's perfect almost. I love it when Ahmad says it's kind of obvious. It's just like when Alex answers those like humanity's last exam questions like, oh, it's four, of course. Well, you know, competition is great. You know, we've seen there are a number of companies creating glasses, Xreal and others, but it's really to productize these and make them so cheap and so consumer-friendly that they become... I still remember the first time I saw someone walking down the street with an earpiece talking to themselves.

59:22And I was like, is that person crazy or what's going on? I don't know if you remember that experience the first time you ever saw somebody with the equivalent of what is now an AirPod. And we're going to start to see people walking around with glasses. We talked about this in the last pod. But are you going to be comfortable with everybody recording you all the time? I think in the beginning, you will not be comfortable, but then it will just be assumed. You're always being recorded. The idea that privacy exists is going to be a long-lost concept. I don't know if you guys disagree with me. I think it's interesting.

59:58No, no, no. It's definitely a long conversation. But what's really interesting to me is that of the Mag-7 today, you have three secondhand CEOs, Andy Jassy being one of them. Now, Amazon is the best managed company, I believe, in the history of the world. And we teach all of our executives and our teams the OP1 planning process that Jeff Bezos and Andy Jassy invented. Incredible company. But you've got three legacy CEOs, Andy Jassy. So you've got Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. And then the other four are founder-led CEOs. Well, no, I mean, you've got the CEO of Alphabet, right? Oh, Sundar Pichai.

1:00:39Yeah, so you got four secondhands and three founder CEOs. You're right. You're absolutely right. So it is interesting because here you're like, hey, we're going to do glasses too. Or Apple's like, oh, we're going to add AI to our products too. It's like, okay, that's not exactly – I mean, listen, founder-led companies are able to make much more dramatic right-hand turns and say to the shareholders, listen, I've made money for you before. Just believe me. This is what I'm doing, like it or not. You know, Elon does that every single day. We're seeing Meta do that. And anyway. All right, on to our next subject.

1:01:17Albania appoints the world's first AI-made minister. So I find this fascinating. I think we're going to have more of these in the world. The goal of this AI minister is to tackle corruption in public tenders through fast, efficient, impartial decisions. Imad, you know, you and I have talked about this a lot. Both of us are part of the – in fact, in Dave, you as well – part of what's going on in Riyadh and Saudi at FII. We're going to be meeting with ministers talking about how to use AI to run their policies and their governments more efficiently. How do you think about this, Imad? well i don't think anyone thinks is there anyone listening in here which thinks that she won't do a work she won't do a better job than the existing ministers i mean like this is kind of the bar i think again this is inevitability the ai will incorporate more and more of our decision making systems and be representative of us until it makes those decisions because it will do a better job and the question is just how and why will that happen i have to say though in the launch video there was a bit of creepiness because she said i'm very disappointed at how people have perceived this now it's either a person telling her to say that which is one thing or the ai itself is disappointed which is another kind of words yeah so the real question of course is if you've if you've programmed or you've stood up an ai minister uh what data have you provided to it him or her?

1:02:49And is there a bias in that data? Does the person who controls, you know, the data center control what the minister is going to do? Can you inject it? I mean, there will be a lot of debate about the impartiality of these ministers, like it or not, we are humans. I spent my early childhood in Iran, and Brian spent a fair amount of time overseas too. And, you know, the global standard it is corruption. You know, areas that are not corrupt are extremely rare on a global scale, Albania being one of the worst or among the worst. And this is just going to be nothing but good. Even if it's not perfect in terms of its UI, it doesn't matter.

1:03:30It's not going to deliberately take your money or ask you for a kickback or a bribe. And that's just such a global game changer. So sorry, Brian, that you were going to say? Similar. Like the hurdle rate for success is so incredibly low. So I think the AI can be right 80 % of the time, and it would be better than the current status quo. And it would sort of be randomly messing up as opposed to sort of purposely driving money to a family member. And so it's only going to get better. So I think this is probably a great thing for Albania. Yeah. All right. Our next segment in our WTF episode today is energy robots and transport.

1:04:08Here we go. Listen up to our U.S. Secretary of Energy. I don't agree with what he has to say, but let's hear it. So Elon Musk has it completely wrong. He has a wildly exaggerated view of where solar and batteries will go. And if we could make a bet 50 years out, I'll make a bet solar never gets to 10 percent of global energy. Okay, let me give you some, let me drop some knowledge on you. So today in the United States, there's 18 gigawatts of solar capacity installed in the first half of 2025. Solar accounts for 50 percent of new electricity generating capacity in the first half of 25 and 69 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

1:04:54Solar is made up 10.2 percent of the total U.S. installed utility scale generated capacity in 24, surpassing nuclear and hydropower. It's now the fourth largest electricity source after natural gas, coal, and wind. Gentlemen, I'll mention one other thing. NRL, which is the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which is under the Department of Energy, projects solar could power 40 % or more of U.S. electricity demands by 2035. So I think he needs to talk to some of his labs. Thoughts? Yeah, the historic problem, the historic challenge with solar has always been storage, right? Which no one's better at that than anyone and when he's built at Tesla, right?

1:05:37And so solar is intermittent source. And so you'd store it over time and there'd be some depreciation on that storage, but that's essentially a solved or nearly solved problem. And so, yeah, Chris is, I don't want to make any... Solar is a big deal. Storing solar is getting easier and easier, and the DOE is absolutely correct on this. You know, the other thing I would say... If he's right about solar, then... Go ahead. If he's right about solar, there's no way the US can keep up with China. Yeah. Solar is basically the US's best shot at keeping up with China. The hard-party mod is our solar supply chain is completely tied to China.

1:06:11So it's not about just solar work or is storage going to get better and better? It's getting better every single year, and Elon's driving that. It's can we have a U.S.-driven solar supply chain where we're not reliant on an outsourced partner for what's going to be one of the most important ways for us to capture energy? I think that's a great point. Exactly it. What – we do need to realize the world is about to change on the back of ASI, right? We're going to have better manufacturing processes. We're going to have new materials. We're going to have all kinds of capabilities that did not exist today, but will exist in three or four years.

1:06:48Can we scale it quickly enough? We'll see. But China has run circles around us. I mean, the numbers are pretty staggering. China leads with 880 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2024, growing at 45.6 % annually. That's insane. The U.S. is at 177 gigawatts, growing at 27%. So they're basically lapping us constantly. You're so right, Peter. We have a fundamental structural problem because look at all the companies that we've built, Ahmad, Brian, all four of us. They're all like, I need three, four, 500 grand of seed money. Then I need a couple million bucks. And then if all goes well, it's going to be worth billions of dollars.

1:07:33Like, that's pretty damn compelling from an investor point of view. But when you start talking about industries, like real industries like automotive or solar or energy, we're just not making the investments. We have a fundamental structural problem in the country that prevents us from making those investments. And the$200 billion a year venture community is never going to do it and isn't even nearly big enough to do it anyway. And so what happens every time with, you know, 80 % of the world's cars were made in Detroit. 80 percent. Every part of those cars was invented in America. Yet we lost the entire industry.

1:08:08It almost died completely. Obama had to save it from absolute collapse. And now it's kind of coming back. But why? How does that happen? And it happened with LCD TVs. It happened everything. It's all invented here, cloned elsewhere. They make the investment to do it at scale, to get the cost down, and then they bring it back into the U.S., back into Europe at low prices. With a large tariff. It's just a fundamentally broken machine in the U.S. Well, tariffs are part of that. Well, who pays the tariffs, right? I think that when China gets its robot supply chain going, it's only going to widen because those robots are going to build those factories.

1:08:50Yeah. Yeah, they have a huge lead there. This is a big focus area for David Siegel, the Two Sigma founder. So if we want to pod with him, he'd love to riff on this topic. But he has some ideas on how to fundamentally fix them. Yeah. So we reported last pod about Brett Adcock's figure raising a billion dollars at a$39 billion valuation. I mistakenly said it was a$93 billion valuation. Sorry to triple your valuation there, Brett. But it was$1 billion. He's underwater. Just give it a few weeks. Exactly. Exactly. It's$1 billion on top at a$39 billion valuation. Pretty amazing. And Brett is an incredible entrepreneur who was in the eVTOL with Archer Aviation before and has brought his engineering expertise to the table.

1:09:42They've also announced a strategic partnership with Brookfield. And Brookfield is giving them access to 100 ,000 homes, 500 million square feet of offices and logistics space. So there is a concept right now, and we learned about this when we were visiting Burnt at 1X Technologies. These companies believe they need embodiment of AI to really get to AGI and beyond. They need to be in different places. And what Bert was saying, if you remember Dave, was if you're in the factory building automobiles or distributing packages, you're seeing the same thing over and over and over again. You're not getting diversity.

1:10:22So we need to be in the home, in the office, like a toddler crawling around and getting you data all the time.

1:10:32Thoughts? Yeah, it's totally right. I don't believe that you need that to get to AGI. I heard Bert say it. I think you can have AGI without that. But if it wants to understand your daily life, what it means to trip over the kids' blocks and bump your head, it needs this data to be empathetic and understand that part of life. But you can have AGI without that. Nevertheless, this is exactly right. You need all that kinematic, telematic data to build the true motion AI foundation model. Yeah. And these models are inferring physics based on video data. And so it's incredibly hard when you're faced with the real world.

1:11:09And so when Brent shifted off of his OpenAI partnership 18 months ago, he made this very, very assessment, which is we have to build our own foundation models that are focused on our own data from real world simulation, because inferring physics is insufficient for an LLM. And not to be left behind in the robot world, OpenAI is ramping up their robot work. It's like, wait, wait, wait, no, we need robots too. So OpenAI was in the robot space back in 2021, but they basically paused all of that to focus on chat GPT. And today they have listed a number of postings for jobs on teleoperation, simulation, mechanical engineering.

1:11:49So if you're listening to this pod and you want to build robots, go check out OpenAI's open roles. And of course, this is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace. Here's the interesting thing. Morgan Stanley, you know, always looking at these reports and all the reports by these banks are so conservative. They're saying it's a$5 trillion market by 2050. But, you know, when I'm looking at the numbers, you know, Vinod Khosla was on stage last year at the Abundance Summit. And then we had Brett and, And the low end of this is a billion robots by 2040. The high end, and Elon makes a convincing argument, so does Brett, that we're at 10 billion robots by 2040.

1:12:32So if we're just at a billion robots and they're 25K each, that's a$25 trillion marketplace by 2040. I don't know why these guys are lowballing these numbers. I'll tell you one thing. When you read the way they analyze this, they use the old business school kind of just project it forward garbage without any concept of either self-improvement for software or self-manufacturing for robotics. But that feedback loop dominates the math in the real world. And that's why they're way, way off in their projections. For sure. It's the classic like Uber's market size being the same as taxis. Like it's so flawed.

1:13:08Great point, Brian, for sure. Hey everybody, there's not a week that goes by when I don't get the strangest of compliments. Someone will stop me and say, Peter, you've got such nice skin. Honestly, I never thought, especially at age 64, I'd be hearing anyone say that I have great skin. And honestly, I can't take any credit. I use an amazing product called OneSkin OS01 twice a day, every day. The company was built by four brilliant PhD women who have identified a 10 amino acid peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it, and like I say, I use it every day, twice a day. There you have it.

1:13:45That's my secret. You go to oneskin.co and write Peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. Okay, now back to the episode. All right, I wanna jump into the economy, and Imad, love having you here on this, and excited when you announce your economic treatise. I'm still predicting Nobel Prize for you, buddy. That's my goal. Nothing less. Nobel Prize in economics. And then we'll do a Nobel Prize in something else for you as well. So here's the slide. It says AI is not a bubble. Dave, do you want to lead this description here? It's not a bubble. Look at the slide. It's clearly not a bubble.

1:14:26God, I really want you to rip on this. But look, I was there. I was alive. I was actually building companies during the bubble. That's changed the course of my life. The dot-com bubble, to be specific. Also did. Oh, yeah. Yeah, not the tulip bulbs back in 17. All right. So 16, whatever. Yeah. No, look, I was on the board of MicroStrategy. Check its history. You know, strategy.com got up to like a$14 billion valuation, I think with no revenue or certainly near no revenue. This is not like that at all. Look at the red line on the right. So just to describe it for our listeners, this is a graphic of Cisco showing its stock price going from$100 up to around$700.

1:15:10But at the same time its stock price is peaking, its 12-month forward earnings per share is pretty flat. So that's by definition a bubble. It's a hype bubble. On the other side of this image, we see NVIDIA. And what we see is that the price of NVIDIA is going up, and it's going up lockstep with the 12-month forward earnings per share. It's generating real revenue, real profits. So, Imad, smack us with some knowledge here, buddy. Yeah, I mean, I think stock market is a bit of a voting mechanism in the short term and calculating mechanism in the long term. What we see with these bubbles is it can be disconnected to the fundamentals.

1:15:50but the real thing here is ai is useful people pay for it because it has economic value that's why even when you look at 100 billion dollars of nvidia money going into open ai that feels like back in the dot-com bubble we had this round tripping of revenue but it never created economic value every single gpu that open ai uses will be booked out because it can do so many things economically and that's why this is not a bubble it's a transition from one type of economy to another type of economy and i think that's what a lot of people just haven't figured out and this is before we see that inflection point of what mustafa talked about earlier what brian's working on of this incredibly long-term kind of planning agent capability that can do really complicated stuff so i think this will just continue there will be some weirdness and when your kind of taxi driver starts talking about generative AI digital assets, that's when you probably know that it's going to be a bubble.

1:16:50Yeah, when your mom starts talking about, should I invest in this company? That's crazy. Well, just some numbers, you know, just because it was a part of our lives or part of my life. You know, the hottest company in the world by far was Yahoo back in the internet bubble. And, you know, it's hard to imagine that now, but Yahoo was the dream of all dreams. And it went public at a$300 million valuation, laughable. And then on day one, it got to a billion dollars. It was trading at a billion. The press went like crazy. Like, that's insane. It has less than 100 employees. How can it be worth a billion dollars?

1:17:24That's nuts. So then after that, they got super acquisitive, bought a whole bunch of assets, got all the way up to about$110,$120 billion valuation at the peak of the market there. And then the capital got cut off almost overnight. And then 9-11 happened. And the market imploded. So it went down 95%. And then, you know, pretty quickly after 9-11, recovered again and settled around asset value, so around$50 billion. Okay, so then, you know, not much happened after that. Eventually got acquired, whatever, gone. So Jensen now is on top of the world. He's investing$100 billion into OpenAI, buying everything, which diversifies that, you know,$4.5 trillion valuation.

1:18:09so you know not only are the revenues and the earnings very real at nvidia but they're also diversifying and aggregating power uh and and equity stakes at an incredible clip so you know and take a take it is priced to perfection that's also true too but the foundation here is very real nothing's going to change the world more than what's going on right now it is definitely not a bubble it's not even vaguely like a bubble there's one where you can tell a bubble and that's when people come up with brand new statistics like Yahoo is valued per eyeball. So if NVIDIA is valued for a transistor, then we know there's an issue.

1:18:46Brian? I think people miss the latency between the CapEx involved in creating the internet and the value that came out of the internet, right? The dot-com bubble, like by any means, if you dollar cost average in the year 2000, even the height of the bubble and then way to 10 years, you had fantastic outcomes, right? But the latency between CapEx right now and earnings is almost immediate, right? Because they're able to translate that. All of the advertising engines are able to translate it almost immediately into additional earnings. So this is just a timing. And the timing for AI, basically payback, is immediate.

1:19:21By the way, let me mention— Yes, I want to devil down on what Brian just said because I thought I was the only guy on the planet saying this. There was no bubble. The internet changed our lives more than anything in prior technology. What it was is a catastrophic loss of confidence in our own investment community. And then 9-11 happened right in the middle of it. And we just lost faith in what turned out to be the best investment. And that's when Google was born, right in the bottom of that. Yeah, Amazon. Yeah, to Ema's point, it's a voting mechanism, right? Let me remind our subscribers, these charts that we're going over, these slides are available to you if you go to dmandis.com slash WTF.

1:20:04Go there, download them. As I said before, have a conversation with your favorite AI large language model about this. Dive in. This is the fun stuff. This is what Dave and I do all the time. Ima just knows all this stuff cold, and I'm sure Brian does too. I got the two-minute heads up on this podcast, but hey, it's been so fun. Yeah, well, you got two-minute heads up, and Emad got 30 seconds, so there you go. All right, but I love having brilliant people around us that we can have these conversations with. Yeah, nothing's scripted, that's for sure. All right, I want to have a conversation about this, maybe a little bit of a debate here.

1:20:42So Eric Wan, the CEO of Zoom, said, we're heading towards a three-day work week that will come on the heels of AI. Let me give you a few other quotes here. So Bill Gates, his quote is a reduced work week to two to three days will happen within a decade. Jensen has said a four-day work week may become the standard. Jamie Dimon from J.P. Morgan has said future generations may work 3.5 days weekly. I like the.5. You know, don't want to say three, don't want to say four, 3.5. Thoughts on this? I mean, you know, Dave, you and I are talking about 997. I don't know about you, but I am working. Actually, I get up about 5 a.m., so I'm more like 6 a.m.

1:21:27to 8 p.m. Yeah, seven days a week. It's exciting. I don't want to let a day go. It's like this is fun. Three days a week. week. I, yeah, I totally agree. I mean, it's just hard not to work constantly because it is fun, like you said, but there's so much. I mean, just, just keeping up with everything going on consumes a full week, work week, and then you have to produce on top of that. So I'm seeing a lot of divergence here. You've got all these people that I know around here that are working 996, 997, just crazy. And then we're predicting that workloads will go down for everybody outside the building apparently but it's not clear to me how that works like if if i'm doing something and then ai can do it better why would i be doing it three days a week you know what does that what does that achieve so i don't know yeah i guess if if a human is providing like economic value that's driving up the value of the company uh and it has some relation to the amount of input that they put in they're probably going to work as much as the company will force it to work right like five days, six days, seven days, because they're ultimately competing with some other firm.

1:22:33So either they don't need the human at all, or they can have somebody for five, six, seven days a week. And so the in-between doesn't really make sense, because we're competing against other folks that aren't going to make similar decisions. Imad, what's your thought? They're all going to get government jobs.

1:22:51I mean, seriously, like, again, humans will have negative value in cognitive labor in a few years. So you've said that. I want you to double down on that conversation. It's a really important concept where humans have negative value in the equation. What does that mean? You're working on a team and you're the dumbest person on the team. You drag it down. You're working on a team with AIs. The AIs are smarter, more capable than you. They never sleep. They learn perfectly from all their mistakes. And they can take in 10 million tokens or words at one point. You're not going to be able to keep up.

1:23:25So what does that look like? okay we might create new jobs no one's really been able to articulate what they are you know apart from entertainment and a few other things so you look at the 1929 emergence you have jobs programs you have an expansion of the public sector and more maybe we figure out taxation but i think when you look at a three to four day work week your job is your identity it's structure and it's more you can't just have people unemployed so i think they will have jobs programs and others with a three, four day work week, giving some sort of social security net. And that's what it kind of looks like.

1:23:59Because if you're in a job where your role is to beat other people, as in private sector competitive jobs, particularly in knowledge work, you're not going to beat an AI. And then in a few years, your muscles aren't going to outcompete or your skill at plumbing isn't going to outcompete a robot. So just to give two examples on this idea that humans drag down the average and have have a negative impact on value. This is where, for example, if you have self-driving fleets and a human enters that and drives, that human is likely to have more accidents than the self-driving fleets. A stat from about six months ago, there was a study done out of Harvard and Stanford in the medical space, and it looked at physicians diagnosing versus physicians with GPT-4 versus GPT-4 on its own.

1:24:50the numbers were insane. So a physician diagnosed 74 % of the time successfully on their own in this particular study. A physician using GPT-4 bumped up two points to 76%, but GPT-4 on its own was getting it right 92 % of the time. So the human in the loop was actually doing damage. We're biased. We're not able to have pure thought and decision-making there. Actually, I think we're going to start here. If all cars were driven at Waymo level, we'd save 40 ,000 lives a year and a trillion dollars in societal costs. Amazing. Yeah. Amazing. This sort of – this stat from Eric misses the organizational point about just having fewer people.

1:25:44So I think we're going to see – there's this number called the Dunbar number, which is like 150 people is sort of the max amount that you can have in a network in your head without having lost all the folks. So it's likely we're going to have a bunch of organizations of about 150 people because the 151st is actually negative in a cost of communication no matter what. So you max that out, use all the AI you can and sort of get the jobs to be done, thrown into the economy through your organization. Yeah. So curious about this one. We talked about Duolingo a few pods ago, especially because of the breakthroughs coming out of both OpenAI and Google.

1:26:21So Duolingo's CEO says, AI made employees four to five times more productive, no layoffs, reported no full-time layoffs since the company went AI first. And AI has sped up lesson creation in languages, math, and music. And Duolingo raised revenue forecasts to$1.02 billion from$996 million. Dave, what do you think about this? Well, one thing I can say for sure, just based on these last two slides, if you look at podcasts and interviews from maybe three or four months ago, they're very, very honest about job displacement and job loss. All of the big wigs now are switching to, oh, it's going to be great.

1:27:01there'll be a three-day work week. You'll be, you know, it'll be fine. And, you know, here, hey, we used AI everywhere, but we didn't have any layoffs. I think that everyone is now worried about wholesale panic and, you know, pitchforks in the streets. And so they're not being particularly honest about the way they see it. Now, that being said, there's going to be massive amounts of abundance. There's more than enough success and happiness to go around, but there is no mechanism right now for distributing it. It's going to land in like five or 10 or 20 hands or, you know, maybe a few more than that, but a very concentrated subset if things just evolve with no change.

1:27:39And that's just the reality of how things are evolving. And yeah, occasionally a company will grow so quickly that there are no layoffs, but many, many other companies are going to say, wow, half the headcount can go because I AI'd it. So, you know, I'm just seeing a lot less honesty in these interviews. Duolingo is growing 30%, 40 % a year. It should be growing its employee base 30%, 40 % a year. Yeah. Interesting point. Yeah. So it's standing still. Well, this is what Mark Benioff talked about as well. You know, we're growing, but we're not growing the number of engineers with agent force there.

1:28:19I thought this was important for us to talk about. NASDAQ pushes to launch trading of tokenized securities. And so the U.S. to become the first exchange to move with this initiative. And it's not enough for us to trade five days a week, eight hours a day. We want to go to 24 hours a day, five days a week, and then it'll be 24-7. So if approved, we'll see the first tokenized trades roll out by late 2026. As a reminder, Robinhood, at least their EU version, in June and July, started, launched with tokenized stock tokens for 200 US stocks. They've been trading 24-5. And Robinhood also, on their EU platform, rolled out stock tokens for private companies, OpenAI and SpaceX.

1:29:11So I found that pretty fascinating. It hasn't come to the US yet, but it most likely will. Thoughts about this, Dave? You've just been trading successfully on the – Actually, there's another one this week, Better Mortgage, out of nowhere. You guys can look it up, BETR. You can check it out. What is Better Mortgage? Well, so Better Mortgage is one of many companies, including GoHealth and one I'm involved with as chairman, that if they implement AI correctly in their workflows, have a huge instantaneous lift. And Better Mortgage is a great case study. So Better Mortgage is an online marketplace for mortgages.

1:29:52They swapped in AI workflows and AI voices. It works really well. Nobody's paying attention to these microcaps, so they trade very cheaply with virtually no liquidity. No mutual fund can touch them because there isn't enough float. Anyway, it's AI-ified itself. I'm writing it down. Somebody noticed. Better Mortgage. Just make the trade live, Peter. Get on a round of it. Yeah, I get that. One second, I'll be right there.

1:30:22Okay. There's a whole theme there, though. You could probably query them up relatively quickly. So all you want to do is look for companies that have huge amounts of consumers passing through their pipes. Any type will do. And then look at the management team and say, is this management team going to AI this or are they going to miss the window? And if it looks like people that will AI it and they already have lots of consumers. This is not investment advice. I'm supposed to say that every time we mention it. No, yes. That wasn't investment advice. It's just a thought. But I'm curious about this idea of tokenized securities.

1:30:53I mean, we're heading towards a world where everything's tokenized and our agents are going to be trading them for us. We desperately need this, too, because going public is very, very onerous and getting more onerous all the time. Oh, my God, yeah. But companies are getting created and growing faster than ever before. There needs to be an easier, shorter, closer liquidity pathway. And some kind of reliable, trustworthy, token-based pseudo-IPO would completely open up the economy. It would solve a lot of the problems we talked about earlier in the podcast, actually. So this could be the structural change we really, really need to bridge the gap between early-stage venture and then IPO, which is only accessible above$20,$100 billion now.

1:31:37i mean u.s monetary velocity is not really recovered since covid it's still below the decade below covid crypto is legal in the u.s apparently gdp is going on the blockchain the treasury secretary said whatever that means like if you want to see what a bubble looks like just look for the next three years additional assets that will show you completely what a bubble looks like you know like janitor bay is the proper thing this one will be insane i think you'll be able to trade stocks on X by next year, you know, everything is a go. In fact, you'll see blockchains from Stripe to Amazon to Google, everyone is launching their own blockchains now, because finally it's legal.

1:32:16Totally right. And not to get too technical, we can cut it out of the podcast if it gets too technical. But historically, the reason the IPO market exists is because it's massively regulated by the SEC, and you have all these gap accounting standards, and you have to You want to prevent widows and orphans from losing money in deals. Yeah, yeah. And so now all of that can be done by AI. And you want to employ enough lawyers. And you want to employ enough lawyers and accountants. It's the biggest accounting lobby thing in the world. But the AI can do all of that now. So you can have a perfectly fair and valid reporting system that is on the blockchain that is far better than what the SEC currently does and what your 10Q reports currently do.

1:33:00In fact, your 10Qs are so full of legal garbage, they're almost unintelligible without AI anyway. So why not make this all seamless, move it to the blockchain? It goes all right into ETFs anyway. So there very much is a solution in there. It's really a good idea. All right, let's move. Oh, go ahead, Brian. Yeah, wrap this up here. The top decile private companies are larger than a huge portion of the public markets. And so the IPO market has gotten so onerous right now that private investors get access to all of the best deals in perpetuity. Companies like Stray, they're data bricks. And so if you want to solve that, there needs to be a structural shift.

1:33:36Yeah. All right. We'll move into our final segment here on health. And here's a piece. Apple Watch Hypertension Alert Receives FDA Clearance. So listen, hypertension is a silent killer. 1.5 billion adults, 30 % to 45 % of the population. 60 % if you're over 60 is affected by hypertension. It's a systolic of 130 or greater and a diastolic of greater than 80. And the challenge is that 46 % of people with hypertension goes undiagnosed and only 21 % is controlled. So if you can, in fact, get it handled by your Apple Watch, give you a heads up. But this is the beginning of basically wearables and sightables becoming part of our daily life.

1:34:27So I'm wearing a continuous glucose monitor. I've got my Oura Ring, my Apple Watch, and I'm dribbling data actually into my AI, my Zori AI that I have at Fountain. And all of that data allows me to ask critical questions about my health. Has my deep sleep varied or my CGM levels varied with any particular medicine I'm taking or any particular supplement I'm taking? So it becomes really incredibly powerful. But what I really find exciting in this space is this announcement from Demis. DeepMind's CEO says AI could shorten drug discovery to months. So, Iman, you've been thinking about this a lot, the impact of AI on drug discovery and on health.

1:35:15What are your thoughts here? Yeah, I mean, healthcare had to assume this ergodicity thing. Like, we're all the same. We're all statistics. Everyone gets 500 milligrams of paracetamol, for example, which, you know, the whole ASD thing. Actually, paracetamol can impact you a bit more if you have a cytochrome P450 abnormality, which causes metabolism. But how do you know that unless you've done tests like Fountain Life, right? There's two parts to this. One is the ability to take all that data and think about everything from first principles, how all your systems interact. Then there are things like isomorphic labs, which, you know, Demis leads the spin outs there.

1:35:54The whole drug discovery thing, we can understand how compounds affect every part of our system. And then that can accelerate these elements as long as they don't, again, get caught up by FDA and other red tape that's unnecessary. Similarly, even as we do the trials, right now we just take down such little data. We can ask people how they feel and get massively rich data that comes in that allows us to extrapolate because data is data, knowledge is knowledge, and we know how to compress and analyze that. I think you will find brand new drugs, like again, the first AI-designed drug from isomorphic and clinical trials, and we're seeing that elsewhere.

1:36:28But even repurposing of existing drugs I think will have a massive impact because, again, you have all this ANIC data that's out there. We have a whole bunch of compounds, and we'll finally be able to analyze the masses of papers and trials properly to actually solve things. It's super exciting. Here's some of the numbers. So the first AI-designed drug comes from a friend, Alex Zeverankov. My bold venture capital fund is an investor in silico medicine, just for full disclosure. But they've designed a drug for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. that's in human trials right now. And then there's a drug called DSP-1181.

1:37:11I love the names of these drugs. And it's for obsessive compulsive disease. And in particular, it went from design to human trials in 12 months. Normally it takes four to five years. Here's some additional numbers. 150 small molecule drugs were discovered via AI First in 2025 alone. And at least 21 drugs have completed phase one successfully with a success rate of 80 to 90 percent, which is stunning. You know, we've talked about this, Imad, that health and education are going to be two of the biggest areas fundamentally disrupted by AI. And it really uplifts humanity. yeah i think it's just super exciting and i think what'll be really interesting is i reckon in the next five years you might actually have part of the fda process what is the in silico as it were predictions of these drug trials and other things like that and again every part of that process i think we can just shrink down and we can cure so many diseases as well as improve our own dave closing thoughts for today i don't know how we're going to keep up there's just so much every single week.

1:38:26You know, it's funny. We were just riffing, what, for an hour, hour and a half. I don't know, whatever it was. But we had a whole other agenda we were going to talk about today, too. We're going to have to reschedule that. But hey, this is the way it's going to be for the rest of our lives, or at least for the next five years. The pace of acceleration is just crazy. And you've got to be in a full sprint mode, at least for this time period. I think, Brian, it was great that you could join us today because your insight on now is the best time, There will never be a better time. There never has been a better time.

1:38:58Maybe tomorrow. And I love the fact that we pulled down the – well, the windows come and the windows go. So it's great to have your insights today. Yeah. Yeah, good to be here. And Brian, I just thank you for the support you're giving this pod. Pleasure to have you. And excited for those of our listeners, subscribers who have reached out to Blitzy. Super cool. yeah and Imad excited we're going to have you back on the pod in about a month when you come out to XPRIZE Visioneering we're going to do a live WTF episode at XPRIZE Visioneering which will be a lot of fun and you and I will be talking a lot before we get to Saudi Arabia right after Visioneering anything you want to tell us about intelligent internet right now?

1:39:48yeah no um release the new book on the new economy the last economy.com and we'll be releasing brand new math on how to think about the economy as we move forward when humans aren't the marginal innovator it's a crazy time and we all got to think about this really carefully it really is rewriting fundamental economic theory period yeah uh brian uh we stole you away from some meetings What's your lineup for the rest of the day? You're just building furiously or engaging with customers? Yeah, I'm going to hang out with customers. I like to hang out with the West Coast clients between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m.

1:40:24because it's still work time there, Tom. Amazing. All right, everybody. Thank you for another great episode of WTF. Please check out the slides at dmandus.com slash WTF. Join us as a subscriber. Tell your friends about what we do. Our mission is to share sort of this extraordinary acceleration that we're feeling with you, educate you along the way, have fun, but get you ready for the new economy that Imad is writing about, get you ready for the extraordinary future coming our way. Hope you'll trade an hour on the Crisis News Network for an hour with us instead. Everybody have an amazing day and night and week.

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1:42:28We'll be right back.