Why OpenAI Paid $6.5 Billion to make the new iPhone & How Google Just Ended Hollywood w/ Dave Blundin & Salim Ismail | EP #174

26:06And I think that we're going to see a massive disruption in education across every field. And one of the challenges we're going to have is whether the educational field is going to accept this. I don't know how you guys feel about this, but teachers' unions are going to have to get on the game here. And we're going to start to see, do I put my kid in school because they're using old style or do I use AI to educate my kids' thoughts? Well, yeah. Yeah, one high level thought on that is, Dennis Asabis is gonna push this agenda. He's taking the high ground. It's really interesting to watch Google now decide, look, our Nobel Prize winning brilliant guy, we're gonna put him on stage and make him a center piece.

26:52And he rises to the occasion incredibly well. But he can't compete with Sam Altman in the use cases that are gonna propagate at light speed, which is virtual friends, creating your own internal copyright violating versions of movies, all that stuff. He can't touch that because he's a Nobel Prize winner. He's going after saving hundreds of millions of lives with biotech innovations because he's the Alpha Fold guy, which everybody, he has to take this incredible moral high ground. So on stage, he's very focused on new models that work from fundamental physics principles up to have fundamental scientific innovations and to teach the world everything they need to go.

27:40It's incredibly high ground important use cases that are gonna take a long time to percolate out because, like you said, teachers unions and regulation and so forth. Well, Sam, on the other end of the world is just gonna run away with consumer, whether it's spyware or not, we're doing it, we're moving out. And this is the quandary that Google's in. And you know, Sundar doesn't want to be that guy. Demis doesn't want to be that guy. This next woman that'll talk doesn't want to be that person. It's just big company versus small company mentality everywhere. All right, let me jump back in and then Selim, I'll come back to you next.

28:15I got 2 .5 fro to code me a simple web app. Someone comes to you with a brilliant idea. I'm gonna add in a prompt that asks 2 .5 fro to update my code based on the image. And here's what Gemini generates. Whoa, I was able to create this just based on a sketch. But what if it taught? That's where a Gemini's native audio comes in. That's a pangolin, and its skills are made of keratin, just like your fingernails. Today, we're making 2 .5 Pro, even better by introducing a new mode we're calling DeepThink. DeepThink uses our latest cutting -edge research in thinking and reasoning, including parallel techniques.

28:59We are in a new phase of the AI platform shows where decades of research are becoming reality for people all over the world. Introducing Google Beam, a new AI first video communications platform. Beam uses a new state of the art video model to transform 2D video streams into a realistic 3D experience. So let me pause at Google Beam here. I sleep in Dave. We had a chance to see Google Beam at the abundance summit this year. And it's not, you know, my 13 year old boys were with me and they said it was the coolest thing they saw at the tech hub, right? The ability to actually be there. Now, Cisco tried this years ago and it was expensive, multi -million dollar hardware.

29:48I don't know if the price point has been announced yet on Google Beam, but it's going to be sort of an appliance that's in your home when you want to contact your mom. It will be very cheap. Yeah, for sure. It will be very cheap. And I think this is a very big deal because you can think about the language potential that comes with it. All the other capabilities will come with it. I think it'll up the game for companies like Zoom and force them into a new innovation cycle also. Fascinating. Yeah, we need to talk about price point for a second here too, because a lot of this stuff is just mind blowing and you need to experience it.

30:23And then Google says, well, to access anything I'm showing you here, you got to get a Google Ultra or a Gemini Ultra account for $250 a month. And so we move on there, part. Paul Z. Paul Z. And one of the things I love about this podcast is, look, this is the actionable, like we're trying to improve people's life choices and trajectories through life by giving them as much actionable information as possible. And a lot of people who listen to this podcast are going to say, I don't, $250 a month, that's like rent. So the good news is you can you can try it at half price for a couple months and then cancel your subscription if you want.

30:57But you definitely got to try it. I mean you Google Google is trained us to get everything for free, right? And just give up our rights and such. I mean OpenAI has proven a $20 price point is acceptable to most individuals. I'll give up a couple of lattes and have access to the world's intelligence, $250. I think it will become mandatory for anybody in the professional modality. Because if the tools will be so rich and there'll be enough there for them to do quite well out of it, I think. But six months ago, a lot of people were saying, look, foundation models are a race to the bottom. There are commodity.

31:39The price points will come down. these $300 billion valuation for OpenAI is insane, given that it'll come out of ties. Now it's got to be obvious to everyone that all of that was wrong. Just absolutely could not have been more wrong. Because you're a foundation model company, the capabilities that you can invent and launch and the price point that they'll command is astronomical. And then right now, any of our listeners are basically going through what's inevitable. I can't be competitive if I don't have my hands on this, I need to try it. I'm gonna drop behind society if I don't get on top of this.

32:16Well, sorry, it's gonna cost you 250 bucks right away. And I noticed it took my money instantly, but it took 24 hours for me to make my first, my first VO3 video. It was like, wow, this thing is over. I mean, I'm interpreting that as it's over subscribed and overloaded. So it's all over. It's like a race. One thing, one thing Dave, which is the capabilities at least existed before, you know, when I say before last month, you know, last quarter will be available for free, right? We're going to still get a lot of fundamentals for free, but if you want the cutting edge, that price will be increasing over time.

32:53Let's let's jump back in here. We are introducing this real -time speech translation directly in Google Me. It's nice to finally talk to you. It's good to talk to you. You can't wait to finish your house. So instant translation, we've been seeing this for a while now. I think it's going to be fascinating to incorporate across all the video platforms. I mean, right now YouTube is translating our podcast in every language out there. That's fantastic. Zoom's going to have to catch up to Google Meet. Any comments on translation, Selim? I mean, I travel a lot and this will be so great to hold up my phone and do real -life transition conversations in different countries.

33:37I'm super excited about this. There's such enablement that comes from this. We've been kind of tickling at it. It's been available in kind of a clunky form for a long time. I think this sounds like it gets to a level of seamlessness from a user interface perspective that could change the game. So, Selim, this directly affects our side bet, which we need to finalize, by the way, Peter needs to adjudicate, but this side bet that we agreed to a few weeks ago, where I see the forces of concentration of wealth into just a few hands are overwhelming. And then the forces of democratization are moving much more slowly.

34:15And so, and your side bet was, no, this is going to benefit broad swaths of humanity on a more, and we haven't quantified that. So we we have to settle that but I'm willing to put any amount of money you want behind it. But here it changes the definition before so you can put down trillions and I'll put down a few bucks. We'll see how that goes. All right, we'll go on. Big, big, interesting. You know, listen, as a parent and you're listening to this, you know, in the past you would say, oh, it's really important for my kids to learn French or Greek or Turkish or Japanese, whatever your cultural roots are or whatever you think you know you need to learn Mandarin because China is rising the world and then you need to load coding right coding was always like push your kids learn to code so now we have this digital world allowing us to do coding through natural language to find coding and why would I ever learn a language if I can just be translated instantly so So there's an interesting social reengineering going on here because of course when you learn to code you learn how to think in a different way and when you learn languages you learn culture in a different way which is going to be obviated through here.

35:29So I'm fast. There's something that I think will persist here and the reason is that when you learn a new language or brain rewires it does. in fundamentally different, it's the same way so many creative people play music, are in the music, is because their brain rewires fundamentally around that different paradigm and you triangulate now you've got different brain neural surface that you can bring to bear, okay? In India, when they have kind of country -wide maps competitions, it's always one by Danks as Indian, the their ability to do mathematics is like 10x, that everybody at the north are in there, And they worked out that it has to do with the structure of the language.

36:10And the rhythmic patterns on the structure keep making their minds naturally available for that. So I think the idea of learning panel or learning coding or learning certain deep skills or languages will persist just because it will create so much more creativity in people. And more creativity will be the only thing that's available for humanity going forward. Well, the reason I think this affects our side bets, Salim, is because there's latent talent all over the world, and it's usually locked up behind language barriers. And now that the translation is real time, but it also keeps your voice intonation, so your natural voice, you can actually make a real friend in a different country where you don't have a common language.

36:52And I think that's new in the world. We don't know where it's going to go exactly, but all of our successful startups are dominated by this theme of best friends grinding it out, working 24 by seven. That's brilliant, Dave. I mean, our ability now to find, I mean, there's so much talent in Pakistan, in India, in parts of Southeast Asia, that are locked up and don't have access to our capital markets. You know, we have, we have link studios as part of link, exponential ventures there on the campus of MIT or Jason to it, and we're opening up abundant studios here in LA. you can imagine tapping into that deep bench and having natural conversations like we have with our buddies down the street.

37:36So can we just say that I won the bet right now? We can't. I'm jumping back into Google IO. We got a lot to go over here. Our research prototype project mariner. It's an agent that can interact with the web and get stuff done. We released it as an early research prototype in December and we've made a lot of progress since and we are starting to bring agenteic capabilities to Chrome, Search and the Gemini app. Let me show you what we are excited about. We call it agent mode. Say you want to find an apartment for you and two roommates in Austin. You've each got a budget of $1200 a month. You want to wash a dryer or at least a laundromat nearby.

38:22using agent mode the Gemini app goes to work behind the seats. You might be familiar with our AI -powered smart reply features. Now imagine if those responses could sound like you. That's the idea behind personalized smarter blocks. With your permission Gemini models can use relevant context across your Google Apps in a way that is private, transparent and fully under your control. Let's say my friend wrote to me looking for advice He's taking a road trip to Utah and he remembers I did this trip before. Gemini can do almost all the work for me, looking up my notes and drive, scanning past emails for reservations.

39:06Gemini matches my typical greetings from past emails, captures my tone, style, and favorite word choices. And then it automatically generates a reply. Wow, just wow. Wow. I mean, so this is like agent mode there and Google's ability to personalize in a very deep and meaningful fashion. I'm blown away. I mean, no, listen, the fact of the matter is, their goal is to get everybody to switch over from iPhones to Android and from Outlook to all of Google's suite. And it's getting compelling. I mean, it's going to be to a point where I want that. and I'm willing, you know, this cost of switching platforms is huge.

39:52And if Google is able to provide enough eye candy and enough cognitive candy to get me to switch, that's a big deal. The use case they did, I was just so funny to me because Sundar is like, hey, suppose I want to go to Utah and I want to rent a bike. Like, come on, man. We already did this week here at Vesmark. We took that same A to A agent agent and MCP capability. and we moved it inside our firewall, and it now opens inbound emails and outlook with trade requests, then the AI will read the trade request, automatically trade the account. We're talking about trillions of dollars here, generate the trade file automatically, and then route it out.

40:33And so we're already using that exact capability in a much higher leverage use case, but completely built the artificial operator. The financial services industry spends about $100 billion a year on back office operations related to these activities. When we sample them, every single one of them is possible to do with AI now. If you're willing to connect it to sensitive information, financial accounts, and you find a way to put it behind your firewall. They just rolled that out here this week, and it's such a huge unlock. When you get on the stage like this, you got to talk about something like, hey, I'm renting I think I'm like, okay.

41:14Well, why does Sundar sound like an AI? I mean... Well, his name is Pitchi. It is Pitch AI. So that's why they chose him, I think, to be CEO. Oh no. It's terrible. But Sundar is in the... He's in the Maustrum, right? And he's got Sergei and Larry looking over his shoulders. He's got, you know, the innovator's dilemma. Again, their entire revenue base has been Google search. not entirely of the revenue based. Two -thirds of the revenues they've got YouTube, which is incredible. They've got Waymo, they've got a whole slew of other. But switching things over, and we'll see this in a minute. Switching this over way from search, they have to do this in order to continue to survive and grow.

42:01Any comment on the agent element, Selene, or the personalization? Does it feel weird to have the AI searching all your emails and responding on your behalf? I mean, I find that incredible. The responding on our behalf is a little creepy and a little unnerving, right? Because you don't know what it's going to say, et cetera, et cetera. I think it's just one of these things that we'll just get used to it. And it'll become routine fairly quickly. the initial emotional reaction will be there for people. I think the potential is much, much bigger here on the business side than on the personal side.

42:42The B2B implications of this type of stuff are off the hook for customer service responses and all sorts of things. So I think we'll see a lot more agentech AI stuff in the enterprise level than at the personal level. I think you so much to talk about. Go ahead, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead. This is my joy to spend days on this stuff, but I want to give you a say. On the consumer side, everybody worries about privacy, but then they roll out functionality that you just absolutely have to have and you have no choice. You always check the box. How many times a day do you push the accept button? You don't even know what you just accept.

43:18Privacy is long since dead. Come on. People want privacy, but your Alexa is listening, your series listening. everything is listening all the time. Privacy is a great thing to desire and I don't accept that it's true. Well, that is why the truly brilliant domestic office types and Mark Pinkas, our friend, they need to get involved in regulatory, which probably the last thing they thought when they were born, when they were a kid growing up, is that they get involved in regulation. But at the rate, these capabilities are coming out. If people like that don't get involved in regulation, and I mentioned those guys in particular, because they're genuinely concerned and they really want a functional non -dustopian future.

44:02And we have to use AI as a tool in creating the regulation on AI. There's no other way it's going to keep up. So it's heartwarming that people like Dennis are at the top of the stack because they're just incredibly human and good nature of people. So that's encouraging. But on the government side, this is a Rubicon we crossed long time ago. So like in the US, there is no right to privacy anymore. It's been totally dissolved, right? And you're going to get the best framing I've seen for this is consider you're living in a global airport, right? Like in an airport, you know you're being surveilled and your rights can be taken away at any time.

44:41And especially that's essentially transmitting now down to every aspect of life in every country. Yeah. So convenient to give your AI access to your conversations and your emails. it's going to make the world automagical for you that turning that off will be like turning off half of your your car bit capacity. I remember Peter, like 10 years ago at Singularity, we played that video of Mark Zuckerberg. It was an onion clip of Mark Zuckerberg and they said, wow, that was the best C .I .A. agent ever. He got the whole world to just tell us where they were. We don't even need spies anymore because that really just tells us where they are.

45:21So Mark Zuckerberg, here's an award for for greatest CI agent in history. I think this is where we've been going down this road for a long time and there's no, I don't think there's any going back from it. I had meetings with two of the biggest insurance companies top fortune fifties earlier this week. And I said, look, how are you going to act on this? You need to act on it like tomorrow. And one of them wants to use AI to do their quarterly closing. So you can't talk about, like, as a public company. So there's nothing more sensitive in the world than your quarterly closing data. And they said, well, we have two choices.

45:59Microsoft says, just give it all to us, trust us. We've already got all your emails in that look. So just throw it over to us and trust us. And they're like, yeah, that sounds kind of scary, but maybe the other choice is to take Lama 4 to still it and bring it in house inside their firewall. And that's Jardub Heaven right there. And very, very viable as a solution. they just need a vendor to come in and wire it up for them. So I think a lot of the companies and countries that care about their future are going to take that latter path. But the alternative is to concede every aspect of your life, your data, and everything to either open AI Microsoft or Google or XAI.

46:39It's just not viable for sovereign states for a lot of fintechs to take that path. So it's an interesting, you know, very, very dynamic time. I am jumping back into the Google IO video here. All right, let's do it. Gemini Flash is our most efficient workhorse model. The new Flash is better in nearly every dimension, improving across key benchmarks for reasoning, code, and long context. Flash will be generally available in early June with Pro Soonofia. Gemini diffusion is a state -of -the -art experimental text diffusion model. that leverages this parallel generation to achieve extremely low latency.

47:22The version of Gemini diffusion we're releasing today generates five times faster than our fastest model so far. This is our ultimate vision for the Gemini app. To transform it into a universal AI assistant in Project Astra, we've upgraded voice output to be more natural with native audio. We've improved memory and added computer control. A quick aside, you probably heard me speaking about fountain life before. And you're probably wishing, Peter, would you please stop talking about fountain life? An answer is no, I wouldn't, because genuinely we're living through a healthcare crisis. You may not know this, but 70 % of heart attacks have no preceding, no pain, no shortness and breath.

48:02And half of those people with a heart attack never wake up. You don't feel cancer until stage 3 or stage 4, until it's too late. But we have all the technology required to detect and prevent these diseases early at scale. That's why a group of us, including Tony Robbins, Bill Cap and Bob Hourry, founded Fountain Life, a one -stop center to help people understand what's going on inside their bodies before it's too late, and to gain access to the therapeutics to give them decades of extra health span. Learn more about what's going on inside your body from Fountain Life. Go to FountainLife .com slash Peter, and tell him Peter sent you.

48:37Okay, back to the episode. We are going to show a video example of Project Astra. I mean, listen, Jarvis is here. My ability to talk to Astra and ask it to do things for me, research things for me, show me where something is in the room. I mean, it's insane. We'll come back to this because the example video is so compelling. But I've been tracking the Jarvis, if you would, and it's finally here and thank you to Google for providing it. To more people than any other product in the world, in our biggest markets like the US and India, AIO views are driving over 10 % growth in the types of queries that show them.

49:23What's particularly exciting is that this growth increases over time. We are introducing an all new AI mode. It's a total reimagining of search. With more advanced reasoning, you can ask AI mode longer and more complex queries. We're excited to start rolling out AI mode for everyone in the US starting today. Over time, we'll graduate many of AI modes cutting -edge features and capabilities directly into the core search experience. That starts today as we bring the same models that power AI mode to power AI overviews. So you can bring your hardest questions right to the search box. Okay, big move on Google's part.

50:05Very, very interesting. Very, very interesting. Bet the company moved. It would be great to overlay the stock price with this exact timeline because this is exactly when the stock started plummeting and it clearly cannibalizes the core business incredibly impressive that they're willing to do that. And then right after that, they have to. you roll out after. But they got it all back and more the next day when they rolled out all the incredible AI capabilities. So it's actually paid off, you know, by the end of the week, it worked as a strategy. But, you know, everybody knows OpenAI is running away with the actual AI user base and Google is miles behind.

50:46But now they're gonna claim that, well, anyone doing a Google search that turns on this mode is an AI user. So we're actually ahead of OpenAI. So that's pretty very smart and aggressive too. It's interesting. I have my family members and friends say, oh, yeah, I asked chat, right? They have a personal relationship with chat GPT. They've given it a name. AI mode needs to start to get into you need to personalize these AIs if they become part of your everyday life. And so I guess I had a conversation with Gemini's where it's going to go. So Liam, what are you thinking about this? You know, I think kudos to them for doing this.

51:24It would be really easy to anchor behind the old search box and just leave it the way it was while the experiment. But to make something this aggressive where it's built right into the core product that they have is incredibly courageous. I agree they don't have much of a choice but many other companies would not have done this. So let's see where this goes. I think we've been away from this too. I mean, the reason America works fundamentally is because startups innovate and push the agenda. But this disability would have been buried inside Google for years, maybe forever, without the competitive pressure.

52:02So, it's a great little case study in what we need to preserve in the American economy is exactly this dynamic where the big guys only move if we keep funding the small guys. And if the IPO economy and the venture economy ever fell apart, this whole country would just grind to a halt. And so, this is a great case study in it. I love it. Well, well, said all right. Let's jump back in. Let me make a point related to that. If Google was a European company, this would never would have happened. Yep. Yep. Yeah. All right. Let me find where we were. It's like having my very own sports analyst right in search.

52:40Search figured out that the best way to present this information is a graph. And it created it. Complex analysis and data visualization is coming this summer for sports and financial questions. Using your camera, search can see what you see and give you helpful information as you go back and forth in real time. We're bringing Project Mariners agentic capabilities into AI mode. Search can take work off my plate while still under my control. Search helps me skip a bunch of steps, linking me right to finish checking out. Ticket secured. With AI mode, we are bringing a new level of intelligence to help you shop the Google.

53:23Search dynamically generates a browsable mosaic of images and some shop of the products personalized just for me. To create a trion experience that works at scale, we need a deep understanding of the human body and how clothing looks on it. To do this, we build a custom in a generation model specifically trained for fashion. All right, here we go, Apple. I mean, Google's getting into Amazon's business. You know, instant shopping. It's going to be an interesting overlay there. Dave, this feels like they're just throwing everything against the wall. I mean, I'm just throwing all out there. I'll tell you the dirty little secret behind this, though.

54:06You know, Google's search volume went flat back in 2017. They stopped reporting it years ago because it's flat. But the revenue just keeps going up and up and up and up. And they say, well, we don't show any more ads than we ever showed before. But what they actually do is they took all the ads off the low -value searches. So baseball scores being a great example. And they amped up the ads like crazy on the topics that drive all the revenues. So that's auto insurance, mortgage, jobs, travel, just one or two other categories drive all the revenue. So now as they roll this out, notice the examples they give are baseball scores.

54:41There's no revenue there anyway. So they've got over the AI. And then the other Another one is shopping where they got crushed by Amazon. Something like 60 or 70 % of all shoppable product search, you go straight to Amazon, you don't even start on Google. And so they're not winning that war anyway. So they're basically going to claim AI supremacy and try and move only the categories that are low click -through rate revenue over. And they're very good at optimizing that balance internally. So this is their way of trying not to cannibalize too much while claiming more users than open and AI has.

55:15And you know, there's something. I think they're gonna go after Amazon here on purchases, right? I mean, it's like, if I'm in the AI mode with Gemini, and I'm talking about things, and it pops up and says, by the way, you can purchase it here, seamless shopping in the middle of conversations or in the middle of doing research, then having to shipped over to Amazon, on, it's going to be an invasion in Amazon driving you engine. It's a great point. And actually, in this, all of this PR war that's going to like, cloud coming out right on top of this event and, you know, everyone's jumping on each other, but Amazon is notably silent.

55:55Even though they do have a ton going on inside AWS and is, I know they're working on it. They have a plan for sure. They just don't seem to be fighting the PR war. Yeah. And then Apple's sort of just given up all together. That is so scary. I'm so weird. Yeah, it is so weird. All right, let's jump back in here. This is the future of Google Search, a search that goes beyond information to intelligence. Our goal is to make Gemini the most personal, proactive, and powerful AI assistant. Gemini Live now includes camera and screen sharing. All of it is rolling out free of charge in the Gemini app on Android and iOS today.

56:35We're bringing our latest and most capable image generation model into the Gemini app. It's called Imagine 4. The images are richer with more nuanced colors and fine -grained details. Today, I'm excited to announce our new state -of -the -art model, VO3. VO3 comes with native audio generation. That means that VO3 can generate sound effects, background sounds and dialogue. They left behind a ball today. It bounced higher than I can jump. What manner of magic is that? This ocean, it's a force, a wild, untamed might. All right, VO3 Grand Slam Home Run. Oh my God, extraordinary. Dave, you started playing with it when you got your $250 account.

57:31How easy was it? Yeah, yeah. Oh my God, it's trivial. You got to get the account and just play with it. It's instantly mind -blowing. The integration of the audio, I think, really puts it over the top. But it's immediately obvious to you that the future of media is going to completely flip where it's on demand. This is what I want to see created on the fly for me. And as soon as every time you do a VO3, it's clipped at eight seconds. And you immediately want a full feature -length movie. And you're like, well, why can I only get eight seconds? And the answer is there aren't enough GPUs on the planet.

58:02that there's enough compute on the planet to meet the demand of everybody who wants this instantaneously. And that gives you a sense of where, how many data centers in Chase Lock Miller, Caruso's are gonna succeed, because just that use case alone will use up everything, let alone customer service and code writing and why all of these things combined. But it's amazing that Josh Woodward got this unit. Like this is the key stuff like this is it. Yeah, Josh was on stage with us at the abundance summit this year. He's a great, great presenter, but it was awesome. Selene, what are your thoughts on VO3?

58:45I think it'll be interesting as people start wanting, but curious as to how people are going to use it at a personal level. There's obvious business uses, etc. But will I really use it to generate my own entertainment, I much try wood. You know, we watch movies particularly because people have curated an experience for us, right? So I think this will be great for the professional filmmakers and you know, it'll be great for making pilots. All sorts of stuff will come through with this. I don't think it will affect the end consumer that much. I don't know about that. I mean Listen, Gemini, Gemini 3, Gemini 4, one of these will have looked at every movie I love.

59:27It'll understand the context, the nuance of what I really enjoy. I mean, if it's got a camera facing at me, it'll understand when I'm smiling, when I'm frowning, when I'm making reactions to it. It can generate a, imagine you want the next season of a particular TV show, right? I'd love to see the next season of the original Star Trek. You'll have that. That's a great example, Peter, because every Netflix series from Earth to the Moon or whatever, you always want more when you get to the end. And they just physically can't create more. Well, now they can. And whether it's passive or active, real -time and created for you, or or it's just the producers can now create the episodes that much more quickly and cheaply.

1:00:15You're never gonna let Harry Potter, you're never gonna let the audience just drop. Like, go to the last book, this last movie, disappear. That's just crazy inefficient to just let the audience fall off a cliff. So now that'll probably never happen again. Whether it's just because production costs are much, much lower or because people can create their own either way that trend will happen. But I'd love to sit back with you on this one too, Selim. I think that, you know, the movie producers have always dwelled on this concept that people are fundamentally lazy. But I don't think that's true. I think that the medium, the passive medium, if you go into a dark theater on a sunny day in LA and you come out of that dark theater and it's suns blaring, you feel like crap.

1:00:55You know, you love the movie. But you feel like, like, what where am I? The ability now to keep the dialogue going, you can move around and keep it going and you can guide it in the direction you want. That's going to be so compelling for people. I don't think the producers have mastered the new medium yet, but when they do, I think I Just I just Google this and it says it was the average shot time for a movie today So a modern movie the average shot length is between 2 .5 to 6 seconds in an action film It's two to three seconds per shot and a drama art film. It's eight to ten seconds per shot So, you know, if there are any physical limitations here, you can just cobble these together, but I'm Hollywood is decimated.

1:01:40I mean, I'm sorry. I you know, I drive by all the studios out in Hollywood when I'm in LA and how do they continue to I think continue to exist in two or three years from now. Yeah, you're dead right on that too because you know look at Hollywood and how successful that's been and why. Well, it's because, look, the movies are culturally aligned and just it just aligns with the audience. But why did all the movies pop up in LA in the first place? Well, it's because we need to shoot the scenes outside and good weather. It's way too expensive to move all the equipment inside every time it rains in New York.

1:02:16So we've got to set up out here where we have good weather. But now this kind of content, weather independent and it's global and it's language independent. and so it's just talent constrained. So yeah, you're right. It should be democratized and moved across the world very quickly now. All right, let's jump into the Google I .O. We've got three quarters in one quarter left to go. A new synth ID detector can identify if an image, audio track, text, or video has synth ID in it. Based on our collaboration with the creative community, We've been building a new AI filmmaking tool for creatives. We're calling it flow, and it's launching today.

1:02:57Let me show you how it works. These are my ingredients. The old man and his car. We make it easy to upload your own images into the tool. It lets you extend the clip too. So I can get the perfect ending that I've been working towards. But what about emerging form factors that could let you experience an AI assistant in new ways. That's exactly why we're building Android XR. Right now, you should be seeing exactly what I'm seeing through the lens of my Android XR glasses. Like my delicious coffee over here, and that text from Sean that just came in. Let's see what he said. All right, it's definitely show time.

1:03:42So I'm gonna launch Gemini and get us going. Gemini, what was the name of the coffee shop on the cup I had earlier? That might have been Bloom's giving. Okay, Gemini, show me what it would take to walk here. It'll take you about an hour. Okay. I can get some steps in and these heads of directions and a full 3D map should make it super easy. I'm excited to announce today the gentle monster and Warby Parker will be the first eyewear partners to build glasses with Android XR. All right. So I would give anything to be at the next Apple board meeting because you've got Sam Altman saying, I'm getting Johnny, I'm going to do devices.

1:04:27And I've got Google saying, I movie, get out of the way, we've got much better AI driven. And what's like, oh my god, they, they, I mean, and this is where Apple should pay the price. They haven't done anything to even try. Crazy. I mean XR glasses, I mean, we're, it's about time that we've got some good AR up and running. And but it's going to change our behavior, right? So every day I'm walking down the street, do I have education mode on? Do I have gameplay mode on? Do I have entertainment mode on? I mean, it's going to become the major educational partner if we let it, you know, Wobby Parker coming in.

1:05:10maybe they'll look good, maybe they'll look fashionable, maybe you would look at geek if you're wearing them. I don't think anything to help you is not look like a geek when you're wearing those glasses. But I was playing with the meta glasses, Peter, the U -Handler A360 last year. Yeah. They were amazing. They look like good sunglasses, they act like good sunglasses, and they've got all those of this AI capability built into them, and it was really quite fascinating to see. That was just like version one the next level versions are gonna be 100 times more capable with AR built into the middle of it I think this is going to be quite a game changer around this I think it'll be really amazing to see the use cases and the potential utility is off the hook Every day I get the strangest compliment someone will stop me and say Peter you have such nice skin Honestly, I never thought I'd hear that from anyone and honestly I can't take the full credit All I do is use something called one skin OS one twice a day every day.

1:06:09The company is built by four brilliant PhD women who identified a peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it and again I use this twice a day every day. You can go to oneskin .co and write Peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. That's oneskin .co and use the code Peter at checkout. Alright back to the episode. All right, let's hit a few. I'm going to exit out of the Google IOs summary there. A lot of amazing stuff. And Kudos to Sundar and Sergey Brin, the whole team there for the work that they've done. They really came out on top this week. And if you look at Polymarket, who's going to be leading AI by the end of May?

1:06:51The Polymarket result show Google at 80 % and Theropik at 19 % XAI at 1%. Okay, seems rational and reasonable. And then let's take a look at what Polymarket predicts by the end of the year 2025. Google is still on top. 38%. OpenAI is back at 26%. And XAI is at 23%. That makes sense, I think, for me. OpenAI is going to... This is a battle between the two of them. And then, of course, you've got Elon coming out of the right field and you never bet against you on is my mantra here. Any comments on this day? This is most entertaining thing in the world to watch, but he said Google's, you know, back on top, but look, they were number three in March on this chart.

1:07:40So everyone had written them off. So and you can actually put money on this if you want to make a living out of betting on who's leapfrogging who, but it's a at this stage, you know, despite this chart is just a four horse all out race. Everyone going as fast as humanly possible. So, you I don't think the short -term trend, which vaulted Google to the top, it's going to actually flip many more times over the next year among these four players. But there's this level of intense energy we haven't ever seen before. And it's what's accelerating our AI future. It's also the most important race in the history of human innovation.

1:08:25The implications are so much bigger than the past races we've seen. So the amount of money, the amount of energy, the short timeline, if you want to track one thing and enjoy it in your lifetime, this is it. I'm going to just hit on a couple more VO slides. We saw this slide here, but you made this one, Dave. Tell us about it. I was my very first ever VO3, so I just wanted to memorialize it. Okay, and let's play it.

1:09:05Yeah, I don't know what was your prompt. It's right there. Make me a video of data centers getting overrun by dinosaurs. I couldn't believe how good it was. No reprompting, no tuning, this is what it comes back with. But I had Chase Lockmiller and Crusoe and Project Stargate in the back of my mind because, you know, Chase has become a celebrity overnight, more power to him. He's our fellow MIT alum. And Crusoe, you know, that's the, he's the company building Stargate in Abilene, Texas. So I was watching the video of this insanely large amount of construction. The electricity, the pipes, the power generation, and now the chips are going to start coming in.

1:09:44And that's worth following just as a storyline by itself. Chase is a great, great guy. He'll be another kind of Mark Zuckerberg character for a long time to come. We should bring him up on the line here. I wanted dinosaurs to be overrunning it before it's even 10, but it was just what was on my mind. All right, there's one more V -03 I'd need to show. And I find it fascinating. All of us, you know, evening TV, you see these pharmaceutical ads that are ridiculous. And they spend a lot of money on these ads. Well, this is an example of a pharmaceutical ad made for $500 instead of $500 ,000 and just take a quick listen to this one.

1:10:21I tried everything for my depression. Nothing worked. Every day filled heavy. I filled trapped. Then I tried peppermint. Our prescription helps your body secrete a special pheromone that attracts puppies. So the commercial goes on and it's hilarious. But I mean, it's like that for me would be the equivalent of an ad campaign for something that makes your, you know, never mind, I'm not going to go there. All right. So that looked jaw -droppingly real. It did. It did. So this is my favorite Google IOPs. And this is for me the materialization of Jarvis. I want to play this, look at this, and then let's talk about holy shit moments and how this is going to change our lives.

1:11:15Can you go on YouTube and find a video for how to fix that? Of course, I'm opening YouTube now.

1:11:23This looks like a good video. Please, your rubber band over the head of the screw. Oh, nice. Thank you. Can you go through my emails with the bike shop and find which size hex nut and... Sure. According to the email from bicycle habitat, you need a 3 -8 -sinch hex nut for your sprocket. I've highlighted the correct bin for you. It seems like I need a spare tension screw. Can you call the nearest bike shop and see what they have in stock? Yep. Calling them now. I'll get back to you with what they have in stock. I think my brake pads are wearing down. Can you check the manual again and see if it talks about them anywhere?

1:11:56According to the manual, if you look on page 24... Do you want to get lunch? Yeah, give me five minutes. Can you finish what you were saying? As I was saying, if you look on page 24, section two, you'll see how to replace the brake pads. Hey, any updates on that call? Yep, I just got off of the bike shop. They confirm they have your tensions grew in stock. Would you like me to place the pickup order? Could you show me some examples of dog baskets? I can put on my bike. Sure. I can help you with that. Just give me a moment. Here are some options. I think Zuka would look really great in these.

1:12:36Jarvis Baby is here. It's a better, you know, I want to free myself from holding the phone. I want to have my eye wear and my audio pickups and have it see what I'm seeing, but holy moly. Yeah. Well, this is a good place for me to make a shout out to all our sovereign leader friends in the Middle East and elsewhere. What you just saw is not actually going to happen in your country. And the reason is because the compute, you don't have access to the compute. You can do this for the next few months, but then all the other use cases that are bubbling up are going to over bid you for that data center space.

1:13:13And then your population is not going to be able to do what they just saw unless you have some kind of a national compute plan. And you know, like we said last time, about 180 out of 200 countries have no plan whatsoever. and you have to get on that right now if you want what you just saw to actually exist in your population and they're gonna be screaming for it. Wow, it is, it's magical powers, it's superpowers. That's so true, we are so compute limited, it is the currency of the future, it's oxygen for us. And it's a basic human right, it's gonna be more important than other basic human rights within a year or two.

1:13:52And populations don't recognize that today but once they experience that and then they're deprived of it, But then they'll all be all over their leaders. Wow. How quickly a miracle becomes something we expect and feel like we deserve. So Liam, what did you think of that? The video is amazing. Once you can get all the millions of little YouTube clips activated and useful in this kind of seamless way, holy moly, that's pretty incredible. I want to touch back on what Dave said though. You know, it's incredible what's happening in this realm. And then you look at country policy for most countries.

1:14:34And they were there like unbelievable, backward. I was talking to the head of state of one of the country that's emerging that's about to become a very big, very wealthy country. And their first idea was let's build a call center. It's like, no, just like, this is the way four generations, let's at least get into the 19th century, forget the 20th century, you forget the 21st century. And this is where I think the smart people at government level are going to need to be there to really change the game. Because almost every country in the world does policy defensively and reactively. Only two places do it positively and forward looking, which is Dubai and Singapore.

1:15:18And I always mean they don't do it that well. And so imagine you had a really forward looking policy in any country, it would really change the game. So I think one or two or three are going to start doing it, and then we're going to see this general transformation in government. But boy, this is going to change the, I think this will be the forcing function that drives that transformation. So that's very exciting. I want to add, you know, listen, when I think of this as Jarvis, the counter -availings, partner to Jarvis is Tony Stark, right? Tony Stark is this radical billionaire who has access to this incredible AI capability.

1:15:53But guess what? This capability is not available to everybody. We're demonetizing and democratizing our vision of this future and that's extraordinary. And you know, that's gonna weigh in on you winning the bet here, Salih. First, I was just about to say that. I think from beginning to end of that, that's the other time. Well, we have to find a solution. I think we're done. I don't want to give away too much of a... All right. Well, let's finalize the bet first, and then I'll tell you why I'm going to work. All right. But I do want to tell you, Peter, we're in between Seleman, New York, me at MIT and UNLA.

1:16:31We're booting up a new company right now that takes advantage of... You saw that synthetic ad is just as good as a real ad now. But we ran some tests over it, ever quote, using celebrity ads and they work incredibly well. One of the problems you run into with LeBron James is that his peak click -through rate or his peak impression value is right during the playoffs when he can't go to a studio and shoot a video. And so we tested two things. If you make a synthetic LeBron James at peak season, what's the click -through rate? It's incredible. And then also if you make thousands of variants of the ad where LeBron is doing different things, maybe different languages, just different messages.

1:17:07That also incredibly drives up the value of the ad. So what we're working on right now is a company that basically just needs to check a box and collect money. And they don't have to show up and shoot anything. Everything else is done by AI. Super. And that'll also get a lot of your L .A. superstar, your movie star friends who you see all the time. They never show up at MIT. Only will I am and done. Well, they wouldn't show up for anything half the time. I always shop there on movie openings. Yeah. Well, you'd be amazed if you get like will I am or anyone to show up on a Metaise campus, the students come out by the hundreds.

1:17:45They just way overreact to a celebrity. So I'm really excited about this project dragging just a handful over the campus. I love it. Here's a quick fun tweet from Dario saying, 2026, we'll see the first $1 billion company with one human employee, we've been predicting this for a while, I get it and I agree. I don't know if you guys are. These are two years ago you and I were launching the EXO 2 .0 book and we said it would take three employees and AI to deliver. So that's not shrunk to one. You'll soon shrink to zero by the way. Yeah, with agents with agents in crypto. Yeah. Well, who gets the money?

1:18:25That's interesting. The agent. This is the whole, the whole Dow paradigm coming to life. Yeah, distributed autonomous organization. For me, the most exciting things that's coming is how these models are going to help us drive breakthroughs in math, physics, chemistry. So this is from, I believe, and theropic. This is the prediction on when disciplines will be solved. So pure mathematics being solved by 2028. This means all of the unsolved math challenges out there getting solved by AI. Let's move down computational chemistry by March of 29. Medicinal chemistry leading to candidate molecules by October 2029.

1:19:12Material science is being solved by 2030. This means you're able to say, I need a material that has these thermal properties, you know, these cost properties, that's insane. Cell biology, core pathways by May 2030, and climate earth modeling systems by 2030. This is the non -linear inflection that just explodes all of our expectations about the future. Look at that little note where it says, most diseaseable, curable, in two and a half years. Right? Vertical line. That's crazy. Well, this is what we saw, Demis and Sabis state, where we try to have all diseases cured within the next decade. I'd like to see, in say, pure mathematics or computationally, I'd like to see which breakthroughs they expect to achieve, because I'd like to see the discipline of solved quote unquote, but I'd like to see what specific milestones they're expecting to hit there.

1:20:14So anyway, we can worry about that some other time, but this is amazing overall. Yeah, this is where we desperately need Richard Socher as a guest because he's mapped out the timeline So we great to get his opinion on whether these timelines are accurate or not because they're mostly gated by simulation modeling and synthetic data And that varies by different discipline, but we've known that quantum computing is really really important for for material science and for chemical reaction simulation, which is the full cell simulator So the timeline and the technology is probably somewhat predictable now.

1:20:50And we need to get into that. This is why I love getting on this podcast with both of you guys to really consider what's just happened this past week. And you really do help me contextualize it. And if everybody is listening here, I hope you're enjoying this because Dave and Selim and I are pouring our hearts into this. We're making this our priority every week to really deliver to you what we've seen, what it means. So please join us in moonshot as we move this forward. And as we do every week, let's talk a little bit about crypto and Bitcoin. This was a big one. Bitcoin surpasses Amazon and Google's market cap.

1:21:25It's a big week for Bitcoin as well. Celine, are you happy? I'm getting happier by the day as the thing goes. For me, this is the definition of democratization because every single individual in the world can own Bitcoin. It's very, very hard to own say gold. And so this is, I think, a huge trend in the right direction. We could have a whole dedicated episode just on the impact of this on fiat currencies. that might be with Jeff Booth as a guest. And just talk through what are the implications for, are we been doing things for 50 years with Fiat currencies having enormous stress? We saw this week the struggle in the Congress to pass a bill that's just gonna blow the debt open.

1:22:16And so there's big implications for all of this. Yeah, we'll see Bitcoin surpass Microsoft as well. It's got a while to go for beating out gold, but it will get there as well. And of course this week we saw a surge Bitcoin surpassing $110 ,000, sitting all new time highs Just an extraordinary time to be alive as we say every single time You know we talk about the value of markets 50 billion dollars of Bitcoin gets traded every day Hmm, that's the staggering number. I mean it's incredible Yeah, I know one first I know one person is very happy and that's Mike's seller I haven't seen micro -strategy stock continuing to peak at the same time that Bitcoin has been going up.

1:23:04That's interesting if it's dislocated from Bitcoin in some fashion. But that's a different conversation. Thank you everybody for joining us. Please subscribe. This is our desire to deliver to you the news that is transforming how we govern our nations, how we run our companies, our industries, even educate our kids and our families. is always grateful and appreciative to my moonshot mates here. Seleme Ismail, who's that way about five meters, and they blend in the other side of the US and Boston. All right, guys, can't wait to see what miracles can happen next week. So before we sign off, Peter, I just want to throw out a thank you for inventing this podcast.

1:23:44It's getting far, far more views than I ever would have guessed. And for me, it's been life changing in that this is so much more efficient a way to reach out to people than one -on -one meetings, just getting on stage, which I do a lot of anyway, but this has just been life -changing for me, and I just want to thank you for inventing it and also for inviting me to join you in it. It's part of the family here. I love your insights, brother. All right. It's so fun. I mean, the text of the whole conversation with the tech insights coming from We made a favor off the hook, so really great. Well, thanks, Lynn.

1:24:20All right, guys. I'll have an awesome day. Can't wait to see what unfolds next week. If you could have had a 10 -year head start on the dotcom boom back in the 2000s, would you have taken it? Every week, I track the major tech meta trends. These are massive game -changing shifts that will play out over the decade ahead. From humanoid robotics to AGI, quantum computing, energy breakthroughs, and longevity, I cut through the noise and deliver only what matters to our lives and our careers. I send out a Metatrend newsletter twice a week as a quick two -minute read over email. It's entirely free. These insights are read by founders, CEOs, and investors behind some of the world's most disruptive companies.

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