Intel Hits a 52-Week High: Time to Buy?

0:04Intel sets new highs. Is the climb just beginning? You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

0:20Welcome, Fools. I'm your host, Tim Byers. With me are two old friends, Rick Binares and Asit Sharma. I hope you're both fully caffeinated because we've got a pretty caffeinated stock to talk about today. That is Intel, ticker INTC. As of the time I wrote these notes on Friday, the stock had hit a fresh 52-week high of$45.67 a share. Is this the beginning of an extended rally that will last years, or is this time to cash in on a burst of enthusiasm and move capital into more proven chip stocks? I think these are really interesting questions, and we're going to tackle both of them. And then we are then going to get a bit philosophical because we're going to have another episode of Mindset Monday, which is perfect for Asit and Rick.

1:06But first, we have to talk about Intel. So, Rick, I'm going to start with you here. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, had a meeting with Intel CEO Lee Bhutan, and he was very excited about this meeting. He said, I just had a great meeting. He put this out on his social media platform, saying, I just had a meeting with the very successful Intel CEO, Lee Bhutan. Intel just launched its first sub-2 nanometer CPU processor design built and packaged right here in the USA. So, I think we can say with some confidence here, Rick, that the president isn't making any serious technical statements.

1:47But what we do know is that he does seem to be excited about putting federal funds and federal backing behind Intel. And in particular, there is one Defense Department initiative underway that will allow Intel to get a serious amount of money, billions of dollars, for manufacturing for the federal government. So do you think this enthusiasm for Intel is warranted? How are you feeling about Intel knowing that it's hit a 52-week high? Sometimes you see a stock start to move up before the fundamentals get there. And with Intel, you see that. 2025 will be the fourth consecutive year of declining revenue.

2:31Intel is still not profitable on a reported basis. It's not generating positive free cash flow, something that analysts don't see changing until 2027. But what you mentioned, what happened in August when the U.S. said, all right, we're going to put$8.9 billion for a 9.9 % stake in August. That's basically now worth more than$20 billion. And so, you, me, and Asit, we each owed about$60, if my math is correct,$60 worth of Intel, just as being a U.S. citizen. You have this case where there is that enthusiasm that, obviously, that's where the White House is coming from. But it is the kind of thing where now it has to prove it to me.

3:06Show me that you can do this. And I think that's the whole thing. Intel is doing a lot of right things. It had a great CES last week, a lot of buzz, but the results aren't there yet. And that's, I think, what we need to wait for to see the run-up that the stock has had, a monstrous run-up over the past year is warranted. I mean, Asit, let's talk about at least part of the technical stuff that President Trump is talking about here. Intel in the United States is planning to bring online plants that will provide chipmaking in two distinct but very advanced processes, one called 18A, one called 14A.

3:44And the president did point out correctly that these are sub two nanometer. 18A is 1.8 nanometer. 14A is 1.4 nanometer. This is really small. And the smaller the chip, the more power efficient it can be. Sometimes you can put more of these chips together on a wafer so you can create a more powerful chip. The implication here is that these processes are going to be highly useful for things like, wait for it, AI, Asit. How big a deal is this, do you think, making essentially highly advanced chips here on US shores? How much credit should we give Intel for this, knowing that it's not done yet, but they are working on it?

4:37Well, let's give Intel the credit up front for working on it. the U.S. ceded its most advanced chip making capabilities to Taiwan years ago. Intel itself was the manufacturer at scale of our best technology when it came to chips and really just got off track in so many different ways. So this represents a comeback for Intel. If you ever hear that Intel is a comeback story, this is part and parcel of that. And so where we get into these distinctions between 18A and 14A, it's really, to put it simply, you can imagine the same process, but getting more refined in stage two. So 18A is distinguished by really two things.

5:21So these nanosheet transistors, and then moving the power from sort of the front of the wafer to the back of the wafer. Okay. So nothing in 18A should be taken as that number represents some kind of smaller aperture or whatnot. As you said, it's really already a two nanometer and below process of very, very intricate designs on a chip. When you move from 18A to 14A, what's going to happen is these machines that ASML makes its most valuable machines. These are lithography machines that companies like Intel buy to write onto silicon substrates. they're going to use their latest and greatest machines, which are high NA EUV machines.

6:05And this is sort of interesting because ASML has been waiting for its customers to adopt their latest technology. Funnily enough, it could be Intel that's at the forefront of that. But to get to 14A, and the reason why I'm going to this level of detail, it takes a lot. So it's going to have to prove out this first process. And, of course, they now have a processor that's recently been released that runs on 18A. It's going to take a while, Tim, to get to 14A for that process to be widely adopted by major players. And this is why Rick says, look, the stock price is ahead of where the tech is just now.

6:43I'll point out NVIDIA, great story here. They invested in Intel also, right? $5 billion. And they've been testing out 18A. They backed off. we heard in December from going any further in their test. Now, we shouldn't confuse this with NVIDIA getting really down on Intel's process. NVIDIA, in the first place, is using this for its CPUs. And to get to where it needs to for 18A to be part of its GPU process flow, that development flow, it's going to take a lot. Intel's going to have to prove a lot. But they've got the money from NVIDIA. NVIDIA is a great partner for all the other stuff. So there's a lot for this story to work out in the future.

7:27I myself, full disclosure here, more than$60. I purchased some Intel early last year and have enjoyed the gains. But I realize as a rational shareholder, it's still got to come up with a major foundry partner. So more big players need to step forward and say, we're going to use this technology before we can feel that Intel's out of the woods. Yeah, I mean, we don't have a lot of Intel announcements about customers that are using the Intel Foundry for manufacturing at scale their most advanced chips. We know that Amazon Web Services is doing this. We know that NVIDIA at least is trialing some things.

8:07what Intel has said is that they expect those most advanced chips, those 14A designs you were talking about, Asit, there will start to be decisions about manufacturing at that level. The first half of 2027, say that three times fast, but essentially, maybe call it spring or late spring of 2027. We're not there yet, but it's early enough. Having said that, Rick, I'll start with you here. Intel Foundry, for really the past few years, has been a net zero in terms of contributor to Intel. So now that there's a chance that it's not going to be a net zero, are you buy, sell, or hold Intel on the promise that Intel Foundry, with doing business primarily here in the United States, is going to be a material contributor to Intel, buy, sell, or hold based on the hope for Intel Foundry here, Rick.

9:09Yeah, so I'm excited that the Intel inside company that's sort of been the Intel outside looking in for so many years is back to, you know, having a nice primary seat, potentially a leader of this new revolution. The 18A is not only just what we talk about gaming, but also AI, but also gaming and more power efficiency. These things that matter. They're making a splash in here. It'll take a while to catch up with the NVIDIAs and the AMDs of the world in many ways, but I'm excited about all that. Again, I'm happy with my$60 that I have, my share indirectly. I'm not so excited to jump on the stock now because it has run up so much.

9:46Even looking out to next year, it's not like investors are expecting. It will be a return to growth and a return to profitability, but it's just a very small step, not moving the needle yet. This is a long-term play. And I think as an investor, it's exciting. Intel is definitely a better company now than it was a year ago. Definitely the 10 months that LipBoutan has been CEO has been an amazing run for any incoming CEO and outsider CEO at that. But I do think I want to wait. And I think I can afford to wait because I think the stock will be volatile in the next year or two. And I think I'll be able to pick a better entry point and hopefully at a point where some of these products and all this demand and the fact that they're saying demands exceeding supply, something that we haven't seen in Intel in a long time.

10:26These things that are being said and happening are exciting. I want to see it bear out to actual reality. Yeah. So, Asit, Rick is pretty happy with his holdings as a U.S. citizen. You are a shareholder. So, are you buy, sell, or hold those Intel shares? You maybe want to buy a little bit more on the promise of Intel Foundry? Yeah, Tim, I am a dollar cost average in buy on Intel. And I think Rick put it so wonderfully, that doesn't have to be dollar cost averaging in every month this year. You could just wait. This business is going to be volatile and the stock is going to be volatile to follow.

11:06But I have to say, let's give a lot of credit to Lee Poutin. I mean, this is a guy we knew about, Tim, right? He was the CEO of a esoteric company in the semiconductor industry on the design side, Cadence Design Systems. He has a master's degree in nuclear engineering from MIT. He was on the board of Intel and just was uncomfortable with all the middle management and inefficient use of resources when he was a board member. I think he's still on the board, but looking not as the operator of the business. And not only has he really set the future into motion, he's also proven to be good on the rubbing elbows side, the handshake side.

11:49I mean, he's been able to roll with the punches with the Trump administration. They got off to a very rocky start. He's sealed an investment from we, the taxpayers, and from NVIDIA. So I think he's showing that he brings a lot of tools to a very difficult turnaround. I will say that NVIDIA has many chances to fail. The competition doesn't slow down. So when we hear about them being able to get 14A moving, let's say in 2027, that's so many months more they're losing to competition competitors like AMD and those who are actual fabs like Taiwan Semiconductor. But on the other hand, if this does play out, if this story plays out the way it could, you have here on American soil a really specialized chip manufacturer that will see a ton of demand in the future.

12:41Because AI ain't going anywhere, Tim. We know that, right? So, if they can produce the chips here, that's a great revenue stream for Intel in the coming years, a chance for it to be great again. So I caution anyone about getting too excited on this story in the very near term. I share Rick's caution on that. But I would say if you have a little bit of risk tolerance and you study this business, averaging in, especially in those volatile periods where the stock gets taken to the woodshed, that's not a bad strategy. All right. So like it, hold it, maybe a cautious buyer here. And Lee Bouton got smarts real good, is what we're hearing here.

13:23Up next, let's do some Mindset Monday. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. In January of 1915, Ernest Shackleton's ship, Endurance, became encased in the ice in the Weddell Sea. Through determination, grit, and savvy, Shackleton would lead his men through a brutal winter, then over hundreds of miles of Antarctic ice, followed by 800 miles across some of the roughest waters in the world. It is one of the most extraordinary and inspirational journeys in the history of exploration. Find this story and many others at the Explorers Podcast, available wherever you get your podcasts or at explorerspodcast.com.

13:59We're back with another Mindset Monday. This time, we're going to look at breaks, specifically the benefit of a break from the market and from investing. Have you taken one recently? And if you haven't, why not? Breaks are on my mind, guys, because I just took one. a holiday break where I did a lot of things other than work or think about the market. I did buy and sell some stock, though, but that was in the context of plans made a while back. I think being able to disconnect from the market and daily business news proved pretty restorative for me, I have to say. Let's talk about this. How you do it, Asit and Rick, I'd be very curious.

14:36What's it like when you take a break from the market? Rick, I'll start with you here. Do you ever do this? Are you conscious about taking a break from the market and from investing? I am not. To me, it's the kind of thing where the market isn't just work, it's also fun, and it's also life. It's a lot of factors that it's not something that if you were working a nine-to-five job that you don't like, and you're like, well, great, I get to take a vacation, so take a break that way. But there are times, of course, where I'm traveling with the family and traveling far, like we were in Europe two years ago, for about a week or two, there was no point for me to check in because I was at different market hours and everything was completely different and it felt great.

15:21I love that, but I also was happy to get back into it. But yes, I do think it's important to take this break every once in a while, especially if you are watching the stock market, every passing tick on your stocks, that is not healthy for anyone, as we're all long-term investors, so in that regard. But again, I do cheat, even when I tell myself, I still have a little side eye, let me see CNBC playing at this hotel bar, it's probably not going to be on. But it is the kind of thing where, yeah, I can't really get away from it, but when I do, I'm thankful that I do it. I think I've become a better investor by taking a break, just like you would with anything.

16:02If you can't crack a Rubik's Cube or any kind of puzzle or the New York Times crossword, take a break and look at it with fresh eyes a little while later, and you're going to have a different approach that will probably make you a better investor and a better person. I'm going to have some things to say about that, but Asit, I want to hear from you first here. When's the last time you took a market break? Yesterday. Now, yes, we're taping on a Monday. There was no market there in front of me on Sunday, but I did take a complete mental break, as I tend to do. I have a few passions outside of investing, Tim.

16:36I love to read. I like to write some fiction. I love to learn languages. But I'm not going to lie either. I mean, the three of us have chosen this as our profession. So we're pretty wired in all the time. And I think if I don't take that conscious break to chase my passions, it could easily be something that I don't turn off. And so I wanted to just go over three quick ways that I take a break. One is to take a walk out in nature. I try to do that every day. The second is what Rick mentioned, which is travel. Anytime you pull yourself out of your normal rhythms, your daily rhythms, and go somewhere else, it's a great way for your brain to disengage because your brain is disoriented.

17:18It's disoriented spatially. It's got a lot of new stimuli coming in. So that makes it easier to disconnect. And then the third is to get absorbed in something. I mean, for me, that's reading. Your brain is trying to problem solve when you think about the markets and whether you're professionals like the three of us or someone who is more nine to five and does investing in his or her spare time. When your mind is there, it's really trying to figure out, okay, how do I achieve what I want to achieve? Why am I not having this success that I want? Or, Or, wow, this is great. I'm really exceeding my expectations.

17:51But it always sees investing as this problem, something to optimize. And the way that you actually can really help yourself solve that problem is to immerse yourself in other problems. So that could be the Rubik's Cube, Rick's sites. It could just be letting yourself go into the flow of something else. Music, art, literature, seeing friends, going out for a beer. All of those things are really great in helping you disconnect from this thing that's tugging at you. And I think it leads to better results, or at least it has in my case. Nice. I like it. Well, a quick final thought on this. The greatest benefit, I think, of taking a break from the market is perspective.

18:31Removing yourself from the daily grind of news, stock movements, and more can help you to reframe your portfolio as a loose collection of businesses with plans and purposes you may or may not believe in. and like following. And that is something that's very valuable. It'll allow you to actually build a portfolio. Understanding what you like and where you still have questions is also a great way to not only steward your holdings, but also your Motley Fool membership, since we're here to help you answer as many investing and mindset questions as we can. If you have a mindset question you'd like to get answered, please write to me at tbyers at fool.com, tbuyers at fool.com, and you can be featured in a future show.

19:15Up next, we'll preview tomorrow. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Every Sunday, we get together to talk about the week's tech news on This Week in Tech. Hi, this is Leo Laporte. I hope you'll join us for this week's TWIT. We're covering CES. It was an amazing show jennifer pattison tui covers home automation for the verge jason heiner covers ai for the deep view and father robert balassier the digital jesuit has his top five picks plus watch out for falling robots there were a few of them i tried to reach as it came towards me my instinct was to try and help it you know and stop it and i put my hand out oh my god it's heavy you're a humanoidist because if that was not a humanoid robot you wouldn't have tried to catch it this week it's twit and our ces coverage you'll find it on our website twit.tv or wherever you get your podcasts all right for tomorrow's show emily flippen will have jason hall and dan kaplinger so you want to be sure and tune in for some more coverage of the markets and just the the amount of and variety of goofy things that are happening in the world.

20:24There's a lot to get to, and Emily will be here to give it all to you. So that's tomorrow. Emily Flippin with Jason Hall and Dan Kaplinger. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about. Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosures, please check out our show notes.

21:01Thanks to Rick Munarez and Asit Sharma. Our engineer, as always, is Dan Boyd. Our producer is Ana Chakravalu. I am your host, Tim Byers. Thanks so much for tuning in. We'll see you next time, fools. Fool on.

21:20You