A surprise mailbag! July 14, 2023

14 Jul 2023 · 1 h 6 min

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Podcast Notes: Motley Fool Money - A Surprise Mailbag! (July 14, 2023)

Episode Overview This episode of the Motley Fool Money podcast features hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page as they take on a series of insightful listener questions related to finance and investing. The discussion touches on a variety of topics including auction results, maternity leave investing strategies, advice for female investors, and managing rainy day funds.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. Auction Results vs. Private Treaty Sales
  2. Listener Question: Why is there a focus on auction results in real estate discussions over private treaty sales?
  3. Main Points:
  4. Auction results are easier to collate and report, giving a snapshot of market conditions.
  5. Private treaty sales are more numerous but harder to track accurately.
  6. The psychological aspect of availability bias influences the perception of auction data.
  1. Selling Shares During Maternity Leave
  2. Listener Question: Is it advisable to sell shares during maternity leave to take advantage of a lower tax rate on capital gains?
  3. Main Points:
  4. Selling shares during a year of reduced income can provide tax benefits.
  5. Important to assess if selling aligns with long-term investment strategy.
  6. Emphasis on selling based on future potential rather than past performance.
  1. Advice for Female Investors
  2. Listener Question: What specific financial advice do you have for female investors?
  3. Main Points:
  4. Encouragement for women to take control of their financial futures, particularly in light of societal disparities.
  5. Discussion on the importance of financial literacy and confidence in investing.
  6. Call to action for women to engage in finance and encourage peers to do the same.
  1. Managing a Rainy Day Fund
  2. Listener Question: How should one balance having a rainy day fund with investment strategies?
  3. Main Points:
  4. Vis-a-vis personal net worth, a rainy day fund's purpose should dictate how it is managed.
  5. The importance of liquidity and being prepared for emergencies without needing to liquidate investments at a loss.
  6. Considerations for potential returns from investments vs. the necessity of having cash on hand.
  1. Using Offset Accounts for Investments
  2. Listener Question: Is it smart to keep funds in an offset account instead of investing them?
  3. Main Points:
  4. Offset accounts provide a guaranteed return equivalent to the mortgage interest rate.
  5. The risk of impulsive spending when funds are easily accessible in an offset account.
  6. Discussion on the importance of disciplined financial behavior.

Key Takeaways

  • Understanding Market Psychology: The tendency to focus on auction results can skew perceptions of the property market.
  • Tax Strategy Considerations: Timing stock sales during periods of lower income can optimize tax outcomes.
  • Empowerment in Finance: Female investors should recognize their unique challenges and strive for financial literacy and independence.
  • Emergency Preparedness: Balancing investments with a safety net is crucial; liquidity needs must be assessed in relation to investment goals.
  • Offset Accounts as a Financial Tool: They serve as a solid financial strategy but require discipline to avoid misallocation of funds.

Conclusion The episode encourages listeners to think critically about their financial choices and emphasizes the importance of being informed and proactive in investment strategies. The discussions reflect broader societal themes in finance, particularly regarding gender and the psychological aspects of investing.

Next Episodes: The hosts will return with more listener questions and insights in upcoming episodes, maintaining a focus on practical financial advice.

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For more detailed insights from this episode, visit [Motley Fool Money](https://www.fool.com.au).

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Transcript

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0:28A listener production. Ask and answer them. I'm going to make him answer them, actually, because it's easy when I ask the questions. I get to ask him the hard ones. He, of course, is Andrew Page Esquire. Mr. Page, how are you, sir? Yeah, really good. Really good. It's Sunday? What's going on? Yeah, it threw me there. But it's great that we got so many questions and some really good ones, too. Such good questions. Give the people what they want. Exactly. Well, let's do that. All right. Well, let's choose the Australian. Yeah. All right. Let's dive in. here's one from peter who actually oh well you say good questions i think you said good questions because you know the first one's gonna be about property i'm not sure um i didn't go on oh i know i'm i'm now regretting our choice of a special friday mail magazine is it too late to change no come on don't tease me hit me with it you don't get too much of a chance to rant but i'm sure you'll enjoy it anyway peter says stop me morning guys i'm just wondering why everyone seems to quote real estate auction results why don't they mention private treaty sales which i believe are at least triple the level of sales of auctions and it's kind of a question that is on one hand a very well it's a one-line answer but it's also what i liked about this one mate is it kind of talks to some of the psychology behind what we do so before i go into my answer and cover that stuff i'm going to ask you why do we care about auction sales mate i don't have a good answer actually i wasn't i was not aware yeah i was not aware of there was such a stark contrast between private treaty and and auctions so that's that's surprising i just uh anecdotally had assumed that that auctions most people sold um through auctions was my way working hypothesis i don't now that i'm saying that out loud i don't know if i've got any really good data to sort of base that on and that's why i love this question because it is it gives you it just it creates that impression right they're talking about it so it must matter that's almost almost the starting point yeah well is well what's the answer is the answer that they one one amount of data is more just readily collated and distributed or something like that or yeah i don't know for sure either i have to say uh but i i have a very strong suspicion that's exactly what it so there's he there's i'll go i'll go there's i'll put it out two stars in my mouth at the same time here there is none of this data is absolute anyway right the sheer number of stars you've seen this before the number of trades on the australian property market in a given weekend are tiny tiny tiny same with shares by the way when we say how did bhp shares go today we really say what did the few people who bought the few people who sold agree to pay rather than what does everybody who owns bhp shares think this company is worth it's just literally the trades on the day that matter and so auction results it is the trades on the day that matter on one hand what else do you use and i think there's some value in that question we need to remember it's not particularly necessarily accurate or even descriptive.

3:27Like most things, you and I have talked about monetary policy before, we disagree on it. But what we do agree on is it's the direction of the change that's more useful than the absolute number. And I think when it comes to auctions, it's all on a single day. It's reasonably transparent in terms of properties are sold on the market and in auction in front of other people and recorded on the day um it's a single point in time which data people love because it gets you can collect it all on a saturday and say right on saturday we have the auctions here's what happened this weekend all in one point rather than well there were some houses on the south some sold on monday some sold on tuesday somebody on the market for a week some for a month some for six months uh some sold so-called off market never actually you know we're advertised they just found a buyer for them how do you collate all that and kind of come up with something indicative and descriptive i think it's really hard to do so i I don't think it's a problem or it's even a bad thing that they do it that way.

4:20But I do think, and this is what I liked about Peter's question, is people look at it and say, oh, obviously that's a thing because that's a thing because that's a thing. As you just said, good question. I don't know why. We all just assume we all talk about it every week. Does it matter? Is it representative? I'm not sure. We assume it must be. As I said, I think far more importantly than is it representative is just if the trend is representative. And it probably is because if you're in the market, you can buy your house you know you buy a house that's for sale you buy a house that's at auction generally speaking they're going to be reasonably similarly not priced but similarly impacted by the the demand and supply story of the markets it's probably reasonably indicative so i like that i also wanted to take the chance to i think i've told the story before mate i can't remember if i have then feel free to stop me or just let me ramble on one of the two have a snooze go get a coffee i was on i was at sky news business when back before osbears when sky news business was a thing and we're talking about management estimates and i said i think it was on air but it might have been you know the break uh i said i said look i never use management estimates anyway because they're always unreliable and not very useful and you know it's you got to be a little bit careful and this guy who was on the panel with me looked at me straight in the eye and said well what else do i put in my spreadsheet and it was kind of the idea of like because it exists it's better than something it doesn't exist because i get to pretend there's some certainty and he wasn't him pretending he was i'm i'm 99 and a half century was genuinely serious like if i didn't get management's numbers then how could i possibly do my spreadsheet now my answer would have been either don't do the spreadsheet or if that's literally what you're relying on to do everything you're doing and management's regularly wrong or they fudge the numbers or they you know do silly things to try and get the numbers if they're going to miss which wrecks the long-term future all those things that are problematic with with management earnings estimates and and market own estimates this guy was like well i know what's wrong but what else would i use which just blew my mind and still i still i still think of that every frankly more often than i should it's like but but you know what's wrong with use it because it's there that that was literally and i don't there was no irony in his his reply i'm absolutely sure he did it because it was better than nothing right in theory i would argue it's worse than nothing because you you know you're willing you're you're thinking independently that could be one way to do it exactly you're willfully allowing yourself to be misled in one direction or other anyway but i like that that's what i like about peter's question mate because it's the thing that's there it's availability bias and the absence of that what else do we think about the property market how shower house what a house probably i don't know well there's a number over there good let's grab that number because then i can answer the question confidently or even for myself not even talking heads just people in general you know i've got a house my house is worth x dollars or i think it is has it gone up or down recently i don't know the auction numbers say up okay that's good then yeah we just like to have something in the absence of you know nature abhors a vacuum uh but probably no more and probably a whole lot less than the humans or a vacuum when it comes to the things we want to know go on it's friday morning friday afternoon uh some would say maybe that's uh the basis of some religions but i'm not gonna give you more people well yeah there is but there is some concept of you know i don't know what what how some of those happen why did why did this thing happen why did the crop fail what did the house catch on fire i can't explain it i needed an explanation i think it's kind of the same thing yeah no i think i think there's a lot to be said for that i am always struck by the opacity of the property market.

7:35It is, I mean, we are so lucky in the share market. There is so many rules of what must be disclosed. I can see exactly where all the buyers are lined up right now, where all the sellers are. I don't, you know, all this price withheld nonsense and, you know, all the vendor bid rubbish. And just like the whole auction process through the disclosure of information is just, it's just muddy and it's very, Well, I'll be a conspiracy theorist. It's very much done that way because the middlemen, the real estate agents love it that way, right? Because that gives you the informational edge that you need.

8:11So, yeah, I am struck by that. I also think, too, that just like with the share market, there is danger in speaking at too aggregated a level. Yeah, totally. I mean, you know, a one bedroom falling down place out in the back of nowhere is very different to a beautiful harborside mansion. You know, they all get sort of lumped in together. There are different markets. There are different assets that are all there. And so sometimes a lot of, I think a lot of nuance is lost within all of that. And I find it depressing, frankly, that we have so over-financialized these piles of bricks and mortar that we almost need the market to tell us what it's worth.

8:53And what I mean by that is that, and Buffett talks about this a lot. Who cares? Pretend the market's going to close for 10 years. Would you still buy the share, right? What's he getting at there? It's like, well, he's getting at the fact that there is value, inherent value in holding this asset. I don't need someone to come and give me, like to take it off my hands for me to realize value. Just holding the damn thing is incredibly valuable because of the cash flow it delivers to me. Now, in any kind of sane world, that's what, in fact, for all of history, That was what the great thing about property investing was.

9:24Overall capital was more or less preserved in real terms. It really didn't grow that much. But who cares if I can't sell it? Because I get this wonderful stream of income that comes off the rest of it. And so because the income side of things is negligible at this point in time, again, in real terms, in net terms, that's probably negative for about, I think, 40 % of investors, something like that. it's just a shame I suppose that these very basic human right assets you know shelter has come to a point where it's just you know it is a bit of a speculative dimension to it. So I want to ask you then just a bit of an aside but as a bit of a tangent as well on one hand you kind of said why are they hiding obfuscating these numbers you know why aren't they being transparent with these numbers on the other hand we say well let the market close for 10 years I'm not saying you're wrong.

10:15As you were talking, I was thinking that through. On one hand, I really believe in transparency when it comes to public markets. I think it's important. On the other hand, the fact we have that transparency of regular reporting means, again, as I was saying about auction results, we listen because we're being told. And because there's a number to put in a box, I hope our listeners really get this. So we desperately want a number in a box. And once someone puts a number in a box, we go, oh, okay, good, we can anchor to that then. And we don't really ever ask ourselves whether it matters, how accurate it is to your point about potential obfuscation and other things.

10:45I mean, on one hand, I'm like, I'm glad there are people, organizations who can give us share prices and property prices. And that makes a more informed in air quotes market. But I wonder how much of the Kool-Aid I've been drinking. I mean, to Buffett's point, shouldn't I just say, there's a four bedroom house over there on a block of land that's 800 square meters. And I would pay, it depends where it is, 1.1 million dollars for it. I'm gonna make stuff up now. I don't watch the property market that closely. Regardless of whether someone is worth half a million or two million dollars. I mean, there's something, yes, there's something about understanding the cash flows of something and being able to value it as an investment.

11:20Same with shares. If you told me, here's a business, it's a supermarket, it's got a thousand stores, it does this much in profit, this much in sales, how much do you pay for that? You've said many times, do your valuation independently and then compare it to the price. I wonder at some level if we wouldn't actually be better as investors. I mean, people hate the idea, what do you mean I can't have prices? I need those so I can make my judgment. That might almost be the tell, right? It's like, no, no, no, you don't. You actually need to say, Willis is worth$24. How much is it selling for? $30. Oh, I'm not buying that.

11:47Coles is worth$84. How much is it selling for? $30. Oh, buy that then. I mean, that's what we should be doing as investors. And so many of us are so tied to the price the market's offering. We kind of, you know, I wonder if we're being led in the wrong direction. Yeah, but that doesn't mean that you don't collate and present this information. I think the information, I mean, I'm trying to think of the flow here, but you start with information and from that you withdraw intelligence and from that you gain wisdom like there's a flow there it all stems from there now the mistake that you're highlighting which is the right one is to rely too much on any one kind of metric or what you know what is kind of telling you but i'm really glad that it's out there right i i i can try and piece that together appropriately put it in context etc etc so i tend to think i tend while i agree with your point what's the remedy?

12:40We don't have prices publicly disclosed. I think that leads to more unintended consequences that are more pernicious. So I would be much more open, transparent in terms of the property price data that comes out of the market. To make for a more informed market all around tends to make things more efficient. Now, will some people take some of that data and apply it in silly ways? Yeah. Can you stop that? Sadly, no, because people are people are people. but it's just better than the alternative i think and i wish i wish there was i wish there was better data on property this is frustratingly weak and there's like two providers right yeah that's right that give you give us the data so there's a huge concentration of counter party counter party risk if that's the right term that's there but yeah yeah i'm i still i'm still sure i the reality is the reality which is we all think we want more data because we're supposed to want more data especially more efficient whenever someone says things it's like the tax system let's make taxes more efficient by you know having a flat tax no no you don't want efficiency you want a flat tax you know i'm not saying you're saying that but i just some things we again the things we think we believe because everyone says it all the time more data means more efficiency sure does lead to better outcomes for the average investor i don't know maybe it does maybe it doesn't if you close the doors for 10 years would the average investor be better off or worse off i would i would suggest to you the average investor be better off with no price data no ability to sell over 10 years just just almost by definition but maybe that's maybe that's wrong that's pretty extreme i don't know i have to have to chew on that one for a bit while you do that let me go to another question mate um this one is i have to apologize i uh i mentioned kelly who um sent me a message to say that she was excited you're following her on on twitter and then i realized it was a a spoof account someone was trying to scam her uh and and and she uh you know we had a bit of fun with that which i appreciate kelly and thank you for taking the right in the right time in the right vein uh she sent me a message saying uh i've only just caught up on the last few episodes realize you call me out on air i was hoping my first star appearance would be a question but hey i'll take it now kelly you're welcome but it also made me i don't think she meant it intentionally but made me feel guilty that i hadn't asked her question yet so i'm sorry to make you a punchline kelly and then not ask the question so i will rectify that hopefully with that with your uh your uh forgiveness as i ask you the question ram she says hey scott and ram i've got a question for the pod on something i've never really heard anyone talk much about before Now, Kelly, you've listened to this podcast for a while.

15:04I'm going to talk about the same things over and over again, so we're probably going to have an answer for this one either. But let's pretend. She said, I have asked a few friends who work in finance who all seem curious, but agree they hadn't given it much thought either. Kelly says, I'm a single female in my early 30s, and at some point in the next, say, three to five years, will likely either start a family on my own or with a partner if I have one. Even if it's a few years away, I think it's worth starting to financially plan for now. though i'll say this is really not something we teach young women in our society to think enough about you're absolutely right kelly i have a decent portfolio of etfs she says and some individual stocks and i pay a high tax rate on my income by the time maternity leave rolls around i'd hope that portfolio is back in some green territory exclamation mark and i've been thinking about whether it's a good idea to use that year out of the workforce to sell some profit making holdings, pay tax at a lower rate on the capital gain because my marginal tax rate would be lower that year and use the opportunity to maybe rebalance the portfolio and buy it back in.

16:06Is that a savvy use of a low income period of my life or is it a terrible idea? Is there any other financial advice you can think of that is important for your female audience in particular to hear? I've been listening for several years now and noticed that most of your questions come from men, but I'm sure there are a ton of women listening who would love to hear your thoughts and advice for them especially since our financial lives are for many reasons including taking time out to have and raise children different to many men your advice helps keep me grounded and super focused on building a good future for myself especially through these rocky market periods a great weekly reminder to hang in there and write it out thanks and fool on Kelly Kelly that's an exceptionally great couple of questions and I feel even more guilty now for not asking them before and instead had taken the opportunity to give Ram a bit of grief and also obviously warn our listeners.

16:56Hopefully the good news will be warned our listeners to be careful of scam and spoof accounts. Mate, what do you reckon? Sell down some stocks during a year off work, and in Kelly's case, potentially maternity leave to take advantage of the lower tax rate and then buy back in? Or is that a silly idea? No, it's not a silly idea at all. It's a great idea, in fact, but there's a but. I wouldn't be doing it for the sake of it, But if I'm in a situation where I feel as though I would like to be doing this anyway, that is the time to do it. If it's not a super urgent thing, but you're generally thinking, geez, I'm a bit overweight on this or I'm no longer as enamored with this company when I first bought it.

17:35Again, my usual refrain is don't base that on the profit or loss. It's irrelevant. It's important to sort of work out your tax. But, you know, whether you continue to hold or not is based on the future, not on the past. So don't base it on that. I did the exact same thing. I mean, I didn't have an income for a while there as I was trying to sort of do this crazy startup thing. And it was a great opportunity. Really. I mean, I saved thousands. If I had been doing that. Millions. In your portfolio. Let's wish that that was the case. But, you know, I mean, I saved a lot, a lot of money by doing that.

18:08And I mentioned in a recent episode, a bit out of order because of these prerecords, how that was the advantage of a family trust structure as well, sort of directing where the payments go. So I think the thinking is bang on. There's other parts of the question I want to get to, but I'll let you have a crack at that component. Yeah, thank you, mate. I think it's a great idea. I will just throw one thought. Sorry, I think it's a great idea. To Ram's point, don't just do it for the tax benefit. Do it because it's the right thing to do. Although you do get to potentially effectively pre-pay some tax at a lower rate, which is always nice, right?

18:44But if you've got to pay a million dollar capital gain at 45 % tax, or you can pay$300 ,000 gain so far at 15%. That's true. That's a really good point. There's some really meaningful tax savings there. So have a think about that. The flip side though, Kelly, and probably not you because you're young and you know I hate young people, even our young female listeners, my apologies, is that you just want to be a little bit careful. It depends on what the stock is and how long you're going to hold it for. Because if you were to, let me just use round numbers because it's easy. if you were to sell a hundred thousand dollar uh stock and let's say it's capital going a hundred thousand dollars you pay tax at 30 percent again pick numbers you got 70 grand left over now you reinvest that 70 grand you're kind of you've paid the tax so that's out of the way but when you had the hundred grand you were kind of you were you were letting the tax money ride you were making gains on the tax that you otherwise would have paid right so the 30 grand tax you're paying now because you're selling early, you would have still had invested.

19:42And so again, on that full hundred grand, even though there was tax at some point in the future, you get to compound the tax officer's money effectively by holding it out of the market. And so leaving it in the market, I should say. So that's kind of, there's some benefit there. And more so, again, probably not for you at your age, but more so if you were going to hold those for the long term and then potentially at some point harvest an income from those shares. So think about an ETF, for example, you say you have a portfolio of ETFs. If, for example, you're going to hold the same ETF till you were 70 and use that to generate retirement income.

20:11Now, you may not because it's 40 odd years away, but let's say you were. You could never sell that at all and get fully franked, or mostly franked would be because it's an ECF, mostly franked income for the remainder of your retirement without ever recognising a capital gain. And again, then you're using the tax officer's money to generate dividend income, which is even better. So there's a couple of thoughts just to think about. You do get the tax benefit, so that's great. If you're going to sell it anyway, sometime in the next five or 10 years, you're almost certainly better off to do it while you're having a year off work, if maternity leave or travel or whatever else you wanted to do.

20:46But otherwise, just think about what the likely future, and you can't know for sure, so you know, it's cool. But have a think about it. It's the stuff you tend to keep for the very long term. Never selling means you never pay capital gains tax, or maybe your heirs do, and that's their problem, not yours. But at that point, it just lets you do that in a very different way. You want to get on to the rest of the question? I just reflect on the observation that this is a total sausage factory of an industry. It's 90 % male. That's lovely. Would you like that? But it is. It is. It's full of testosterone and male ego.

21:21And we're weaker for it as an industry. I'm not just trying to be PC here. I think there's umpteen numbers of studies that show ladies just tend to be more emotionally resilient, which is we keep preaching is just such a key key important thing less less influenced by greed more aware of the downside um and just you know so it's it's a shame i think the the funds management industry the advice industry just weaker for just having a bunch of ego-driven hothead males you know and just just watch the wolf of wall street you know how many women were in in in those various scenes and it's kind of like yeah actually pretty pretty reflect uh accurate reflection and it's it's it's just disappointing i suppose um i don't know why more girls don't get into it i probably because it is can be a pretty yeah um what's the word for it the culture's not great and i you know you you you'd you'd be in a very clear minority as a female in this industry and you have to deal with some really annoying personality types as a general rule.

22:31Remedy aside, of course. Oh, obviously, we're different. But I mean, you know the type, mate. When you look at the typical broker, right, they just fit a mold. It's like a real estate agent. You can spot them three blocks down the road. All of the usual sort of tells and not the best sort of human characteristics, I'll happily say. So I don't know what the remedy is, but I do just underscore that point that, and I'm not saying it just to be nice, But this is something that - Because his ram's not nice, by the way. He's not - No, there is a genetic advantage as a female when it comes to investing.

23:10And use that to encourage you to go into it. And also use the fact that the system is just - I mean, it is - For better or worse, it does tend to be that child rearing is mainly done by one of the sexes. And that means a couple of things. It means that you miss out on the experience and the career progression. It means there's usually, if you're having a few kids, I mean, that's a long time out of the workforce which the CV sort of stagnates. And not only that, you're not adding anything to super along the way. So if anything happens to the marriage or the partnership or whatever it happens to be, and statistically, you're a real disadvantage, unless you sort of start fighting things through the court.

23:56So I think it's really important for women to think about finances more. And it's not fair. And hopefully we can move things more in the right direction. But because of that unevenness, you kind of got to work a bit harder to sort of really save and invest because of the disadvantage that's inherent in the system. Yeah, it's lovely. Beautifully put, mate. Kelly, I guess a few thoughts. Ramit, you talked about the industry itself, the professional investors, and you're absolutely right. What I despair about is, not that I need people to do economics, but the percentage of high school students, women or girls who are doing economics, is at like a 40-odd year low.

24:42There's so many more blokes than girls doing economics. So when you're trying to change the future, I don't think economics and money is in any way, shape or form the key thing that society should be focused on. And I don't, you know, I've said before, an economy is there to serve a society not the other way around. So economics is not the most important thing in the world. But it's pretty bloody important if you do want to take control of your financial future because understanding the way the world works properly means understanding the way the economy works for better or ill and to be able to make good decisions and thoughts.

25:13So you kind of, I'm a bit, if it was up to me, I make economics more compulsory during high school, not because I'm a finance nerd. I'm sure science people are saying, no, it's biology. And some of us, no, it's geography. And no, it's maths. It's the way the world works. You know, we talk about maths and English, the way we communicate and count. And yes, economics is to some degree applied maths and applied psychology, but I think it's useful. So it really disturbs me that not enough girls are doing economics because the path to finance is generally, you know, investing is generally, indirectly or directly through economics.

25:45You didn't do it at uni, mate, So you're an exception. But most people do economics, then do commerce at uni, or economics at uni, then join some broking firm. That's how it tends to work. That's why they're all so terrible. Well, they're totally right. Nonsense filled with their heads. But even at school, I wish more girls did economics as a proportion, and absolutely. Well, can I just, just to underscore that again, I mean, this is, I really want to highlight the point you make there. It's not some abstract kind of academic error. I mean, you can't talk about or think about society at large, without understanding economics.

26:17It's really the study of interaction between humans. That's right. So it's kind of, you know, and it makes you a more informed voter. It's got more to do with psychology than maths, man. People think economics is a math subject. I mean, there are some mathematical ways to explain what happens. I'm convinced it's applied psychology. Keynesians, yeah, or the econometricians, whatever they call, you know, we found such great virtue and value in applying mathematical laws to physical laws. And it's like, wow, that's really powerful and really predictive. And so we put it to economics. We've talked about that, right?

26:52Numbers in boxes. Yeah, right, right. You know, and it's just... You know the great... Sorry, I'm talking about the great thing... I'll let you talk. The great thing economists did was utilize the Latin term ceteris paribus. Yes, I love that. Which, and it's absolutely correct in the way it's used, which is these two relationships hold if nothing else changes, which is 100 % right. The reality is there is no circumstance in the entire world in which nothing else changes. You can't hold everything else constant because the world is a messy lot of interactions for different reasons, for emotional and logical reasons and theoretical and practical implications.

27:25And saying, well, this would happen if nothing else changes is perfectly fine. But it's like saying, if my grandmother had, will she be a bicycle? I mean, yeah, sure, but she doesn't. She's not. So what's the point? Yeah, I mean, this is the thing that there are, So as we talk about valuation, DCF and these kinds of things, are you ever going to get anything that's very accurate out of that? No. Is it a complete waste of time? No, it's not. It can be very informative to your thinking and trying to sort of understand how things work. I think there's value in applying math to certain economic concepts as well.

27:56Not to make the mistake of hyper-specificity and false precision, but because of just helping you sort of think through all of those kinds of things. But, you know, it's worth remembering, too, there's a lot of pretty big debates that are unsettled there. So I'm with you that that should be more widely taught. But let's stick to the big eternal truths, you know, the basics. Like the supplies and demand. High school commerce, not university economics. Exactly. Exactly. Yes. yeah for sure for sure sorry you go on no i was gonna say so in terms of in terms of women so my point was so what i was getting to with the high school stuff is there is still too much of a sense in society and among women unfortunately and it's not women's fault but it is what it is that economics is a boy's thing and that money is a guy's thing and that investing is something that guys do and girls don't do and i'm really glad that in a whole lot of areas around our society those gender stereotypes being broken down it's really really really important um you know what i've said before when i think of a nurse i think of a woman now partly as my mom was a nurse partly because i'm conditioned to i think doctor honestly the number of times i've assumed doctor met bloke is embarrassing and not because i consciously want to because i've been conditioned to do it and it's not okay but it is what it is and so when we think economics finance money investing it's like you know girls don't tend to be interested in it i'm glad you are kelly by the way and again that's why i'm saying i'm generalizing absolutely but i know from our own membership stats at Motley Fool, for example.

29:23We index dramatically, overindex dramatically for blokes rather than girls, right? And it drives me nuts. Oh, same here. 90 % of our members would be male. Right. And that's the society we're in. It doesn't mean it's okay. We're not going to accept it, but that's what we're doing. So, Kelly, you ask a beautiful question about, you know, what women need to know. I guess the first thing I'd say for women listening is, and I should do my job for me, which is please encourage your female friends to get more involved in investing. Not the ones who are in finance, they get it already. The ones who aren't, the ones who are doing the caring professions because they care and are so focused on the family and their jobs and other things that they don't remember to think about finance or consider it, or it's just so far outside their experience, they don't know what they don't know.

30:04They're the people you can absolutely help. Kelly and all the women listening, if there are blokes, all the rest of the blokes are listening, talk to your partners, talk to your kids, talk to your mother, talk to your auntie, talk to your friends. Make sure that the women in your lives have at least had, these don't have bad to them don't you know don't do a bloke mansplaining thing by the way just just you know but but try would try to try to expose them to some of this stuff particularly if they're not into it you can't create desire you can't do all that sort of stuff but a man's not a plan as they say and a man's certainly not a financial plan and so that's it's just a really really important thing to do so i think that's i think that's important kelly i'm going to add a couple thoughts first is investing doesn't care money doesn't care whether you're male or female so you're absolutely right there are some specific things rams talked about that about you're taking time out of the workforce to raise kids and that kind of stuff that's absolutely true women get paid less than blokes i mean add those two things together and wonder why women have you know lower superannuation balances than guys it's not a surprise but i would say uh don't overthink the investing thing from a recognize when it matters when gender matters when it doesn't matter you know woolly shares will go up or down whether or not whether a bloke owns them or a both cases saving works the same way in both cases the money itself doesn't doesn't care what i'm most passionate about is is getting women to know what they don't know and i don't know the answer i wish i did i've talked my wife so many times about this trying to find a way to get more women i mean look selfishly at a business level my boss would be more than happy if i had more women members because we'd have more members overall but it's not really even about that it's just i don't know how to get more girls to do economics i don't know how to get more women to invest probably because i'm not a woman funnily enough um so if you've got ideas kelly or anyone else please let me know i'd love to i'd love to help um there are too many blokey voices like andrews and mine doing this podcast right there's some great female driven podcasts out there i would say and i don't mean this about anyone in particular please don't fall for the um where when we have to do things differently or there's a there's a you know a pink color to a podcast or pink color with financial product therefore it's for women it just it doesn't work that way um it shouldn't work that way and please be mindful of that um don't let people sell you stuff you know it's like ethical investing they charge you more fees because they're trying to get you in on that that angle it was like oh here's a woman's thing you got there's some superannuation funds out there by the way targeted at women that charge fees that are extortionate and frankly unethical and unconscionable but they do it and they try and attract women because they are this is for women we're like you it's like no no they want you to believe that so they can charge you more fees so just just be careful with that uh but but whatever you can do whatever you can tell us to do however you can help us do it.

32:36Listen to female voices if they're more acceptable, if they just sound better, if you feel like they share your experience and they know what you're going through and vice versa. If you can find some affinity with some genuinely great female financial advisors, podcast hosts, writers, whatever, knock yourself out. And if your friends, if it helps them, then that's awesome. I love it. But just be careful of that. But again, I'll just reiterate before Ram jumps in again. Just that idea of, you know, it's not fair that women earn less, take more time out of the workforce so we don't fix that as a study.

33:07We absolutely should, let me say that. We haven't yet. It may take years for us to do so. In the meantime, I'm glad you're taking control of your own financial life, Kelly, because that's important. You know what? You're a great example for your friends and family. If you can do a bit of a, hey, here's what I'm doing. Here's what I've seen work for me. Here's how it's worked. You should try this too. You're going to do them a massive, massive, massive favor that honestly, they won't really understand for decades. And when they do, you'll be their favorite, mate, because you'll have done an absolute special.

33:33Yep. I just think it's all in the framing. I think a lot of guys are attracted to – well, the reason more guys are probably attracted to it because it's a very hubristic approach of, yeah, I can make a squillion dollars, you know, and I can drive the Ferrari and get all the girls and all that stupid sort of macho kind of nonsense. Whereas, I've got to be careful. You know, the generalization might be for girls. It's not like, well, I'm not – I think that sounds really dumb and risky and good luck with that, boys. but I am very interested in preserving and growing my wealth in a prudent, low risk kind of way over many, many years.

34:09So I think usually when I speak to people about the market, it's just straight away you're seen as like a crazy gambler. It's like, oh my gosh, you've got all your money in the sham. Like the people like look at you with like, you are, you're an idiot. It sounds really, really reckless to do. And I think there's a lot of good alarm bells that go off for reasons, for good reasons when, when, when you sort of say that. But just, and that's why I say framing is important. So when you're having conversations, it's like, hey, this is not about trying to buy a big private yacht and have a sports car and impress people with these stupid shiny things.

34:39This is like, what do you want? You want long-term security? That's what you want. And that's what it's about. And frame it that way. And by the way, sisters, you're sailing into the wind against all kinds of prejudices that are out there. So it's kind of even more important. And maybe that's the best way to do it. I don't know. 100%. and by the way Kelly if you or anyone else got any ideas hit us up on all the usual socials and email and stuff I'd love to do it I've interviewed some female investors before Miss Moneybox I don't know if she's still blogging Roman yeah she's great yeah she's doing some stuff she actually was doing a doctorate last I spoke to her she's been on the podcast years and years and years ago I probably should get it back on actually probably a good idea there's other female entrepreneurs and people we've talked to yeah look but if anyone listening has some ideas of ways that have worked for them or their friends or something else and they want us to pass them on I would love to So feel free to hit us up.

35:32And we're not going to do a women investing special because we don't know, but happy to talk to female investors and see what works. We'll just pass on some stuff. So feel free to do that as well. I'll give a shout out to Kate from the Rask podcast as well. It does it with Owen. That's another good female voice in this space. That's great. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.

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36:00Hey, mate, let's get a question from Paul. Hi, Scott and Andrew. Firstly, please feel free to use my first name. Good man, Paul. I'm a longtime listener and subscriber of Motley Fool Services, and I'm a straw man subscriber. I really appreciated the air quotes extra time. I think he means we went too long. That was spent on the Woolies thought experiment during May. I feel far more confident in researching companies to the nth degree when it comes to what they do, their competitors, their unique selling proposition and so forth. But I'm less confident in constructing a financial case. the thought experiment was a great way of validating some of the approaches i've been trying but this is not my question says paul in your pod on the 19th i'm not saying may i think on 19th you mentioned that you keep very little in cash as you hate the idea that every dollar you're holding cash will not get a return which is a bet against your fundamental view the market will go up over time i've said that i've spent the last four or so years says paul building up a reasonable portfolio of index ETFs.

36:56And more recently, this has started to transition to stock picking as I've been able to build more conviction. Nice work. I do have a rainy day fund, he says, but I've been thinking for some time that I should invest it for the same reasons you mentioned in the podcast. So with that in mind, I want to start dollar cost averaging my rainy day fund into ETFs over 24 months as there's no liquidity risk while continuing to direct savings over to my stock picks. Sure, I might get unlucky and have to withdraw it near a market bottom, but to bastardize Peter Lynch's quote, far more money could be lost by preparing for an emergency than in dealing with that emergency.

37:32I'd be interested to learn how you balance your view with the realities that you may need to call on emergency cash in the future. For example, do you keep a rainy day fund? If not, presumably you would draw from your investments to service the emergency. If this is the case, and granted, this would be in extreme unfortunate circumstances, how would you go about determining which investment you would liquidate first? Hashtag Kogan, hashtag Altcoin, hashtag drink from Paul. Thank you, Paul. Fantastic question, mate. Love it. Thank you for the kind words too, by the way. What do you reckon, mate?

38:05Just invest the rainy day fund and roll the dice? It depends. We get this one from time to time because it's such a good question. And, you know, I think it really depends on your total net wealth. Look, just give a stupid example. I've got$100 million, right? Let's say I've got that. I'd invest the whole damn lot because even on very big market fluctuations, I will always be able to sell to cover any kind of expenses. Yeah, I might have at a loss, but I am fine. There is nothing to sort of worry about there. You know, if on the other hand, I've only got$10 ,000 in sort of savings, am I going to put that all into the market?

38:43Even with the intention there for the long term, And it's like, well, there are cars breakdown, accidents happen, health scares come along. You know, I think it's probably prudent. So my own experience is that I've actually got much more than I want to have in cash. And it's not for market timing or anything like that in particular. It's just the realities of my personal situation in which my income is pretty variable and not very well established at this early stage. is that I don't ever, I just need that buffer there because I am, despite what you might think, I'm a very risk adverse individual.

39:21And I know that the kind of shares I have can be highly variable and I just don't know what I'm going to be earning next year. So it's like, it just seems prudent to me. Even though I know longer term, it's probably going to disadvantage me. I sleep easier at night knowing that, well, if the market, you know, throws all its toys out of the cot and I have to wear a big short-term losk and like, well, at least I've got something there that I'm not a forced seller at those kinds of levels. If I had more money and more reliable income, I couldn't see how I wouldn't be very, very significantly fully invested.

39:54You know, maybe a small amount off to the side. Yeah, I really like this question because it made me think I have a stock answer. and as always, stock answers can sometimes become almost quasi-cliches or at least easy to roll out. But I think your answer is probably almost perfect, man. It depends on what degree of impact it would make on your life if you couldn't meet those bills or what you'd have to do to meet those bills.

40:26It's really hard, isn't it? The good thing, by the way, Paul, is you're getting an additional return on cash at the moment in a term deposit. So ironically, it's probably it's probably a better time to have a rainy day account that has been in the last decade and a half so there's that right you're getting three and a half I suppose in term deposit I haven't checked for a while so to ask about me I'll give you my answer Paul actually we have got a decent amount of money as a savings slash spending buffer for larger things we're at the moment oh mate 2023 sucks I won't whinge too much because people got it far far worse than i have we've had our heater break we've had uh we were tight we've chosen to insulate our roof at the same time we chose the insulation then the heater broke it's a bloody underfloor heater it's going to cost us a fortune to fix um what else a deck a deck on the front things rotted through so that's got to be repaired like it's just one of those years where you go i mean come on um we are going to so what i've actually done recently of you know all being fully invested.

41:27I've actually not put, I've not invested money in the last four or five months, I don't think. I've saved my investment cash and I moved across my regular investment savings account ready to invest, but I haven't put it to work because I'm not sure what those bills are going to look like. So my rainy day fund has actually ended up being kind of added to or created or is not invested because I'm figuring I might have to pay some sizable bills sometime soon so that's kind of how i've gone about doing that part of um that part of the process in terms of kind of building up some now it's not an emergency because you know the heater broke hasn't been fixed yet by the way it will be fixed soon um i won't quite have added enough to my investment to make that up over the next couple of months but close enough and whatever so there's all that going on at the same time um i i've had say i've had a separate savings account for a while that'll pay for those things and because what i do i tend to add and i'll probably make this change this is a longer complicated answer sorry ram um i've i add a certain amount regularly to my investment every month and other months if i've got money left over that i mean you talk about your approach to budgeting before.

42:42If I've got money left over at the end of the month, so I always invest on payday. The money just goes out of my account into my investment account on payday every single time. But there's leftover cash sometimes after the end of the month that I just haven't spent. We've budgeted well or we just haven't spent the money, haven't needed to. And that money just kind of sits in my savings account for no really good reason. And it's kind of built up slowly over time. I'm not squinting. It's five figures, not even high five figures. It's just there because it's kind of built up over time. I just haven't chosen to re-divert that cash into my investing.

43:09I probably could. maybe I should but I've kind of left it there to do its own thing and not really do much in terms of I could invest every single dollar and make sure but it's kind of left there because it means if I you know we have a month where we've got more to spend we just can and not have to worry month on month you know running the savings account really lean so I guess I use it almost like a offsetty redrawry kind of you know account that kind of puts in the excess cash and then some of the excess cash comes out of it we are going to go on holidays we are on holidays now this is going to air use some of that money to pay for it it's going to be a big fuel bill to drive the Uluru back.

43:41So, you know, some of that goes in there. So it's a really unsatisfying answer, Paul, as they tend to be because, as Ram said, it does depend.

43:52I always say know yourself. Again, it's a usual answer. If you're going to not take the money out, you're going to hate taking the money out or, you know what, if it had been March 2020, you'd take the money out at 60 cents on the dollar because you just needed to replace the water heater or the car at that exact time, you're going to hate that. Or most people are going to hate that. Was it still a good bet? Probably, for exactly the reason you talk about with my own investing i'm always i'm always fully invested because i believe over time it's going to go up you know some investments shares go down since i bought them over time i'm i'm convinced that's the right approach for me um yeah i don't know ram what i was kind of it's hard there's there's no like most things in this area there's no like oh this is it do this like you know it's why i always say it depends yes so i think that's i think yeah just just um just make sure that i like the term i'm looking for here is anti-fragile i want to build a portfolio and structure that is anti-fragile yeah one that will hopefully deliver good appreciation over time but one that will be able to wear and weather through a few few knocks not because i've predicted there's going to be a difficult economic time because i just know that guaranteed there will be at some point because there always are it's very cyclical in kind of nature i don't want to spend 10 years building up a really you know nice little nest egg only to have it all wiped out you know um like the turkey on on thanksgiving day right just everything's brilliant till it isn't um yeah that's a good point the the final question that that paul asked was a good one too which was how would you go about determining which investment you would liquidate first yeah and i think that one for me is an easier one to answer and i would say it is the one I am has the lowest return potential from here.

45:34And the little wrinkle on that would be, but I would have a view towards sort of the tax implications of that as well. Yeah. It's always the after tax return from here. It's absolutely right. Yeah. Yeah. But if I'm holding something, I don't really care up, down, whatever. If it's just like, I no longer believe in, I don't think it's a good investment from here. Of all the things I hold, it's the lowest conviction, lowest return kind of thing. That's an easy, that's an easy kind of decision.

46:03I know I keep repeating myself here, but too often the decision is made on the profit and the loss. Well, I'm going to sell that one because I'm happy to sell something that's up. You never go broke taking a profit, rah, rah, rah, rah, rah. And you just end up, you know, weeding the flowers and watering the weeds. And it's usually a bad approach. Yeah, exactly. Mate, I'm glad you brought that up. I can't have much more of that. I completely agree with that. That's exactly what I'd do. Hey, mate, I will say, by the way, that question came from Paul, who sent it to me on Twitter also. Posted it on Straw Man.

46:31So, Paul, thank you for doing both those things. Just to make sure we were paying attention. My one from Brendan, who says, Hey, Scott and Andrew, I've got a question for the podcast. You were talking recently about offset accounts, cash accounts, etc. I've currently got 100K sitting in an offset account, brackets earning me 5.74%, which is my mortgage rate. This quote's income is 1 ,000 % tax-free, effectively, says Brendan. I'm not sure you claim it's a thousand percent tax-free, Brendan, but I think I know what you're saying. Equivalent income from any other avenue. Taking into account income tax on dividends or interest or capital gains on anything else would be what?

47:09Seven and a half percent or more, surely. In the current environment, offset is surely one of the best looking options. Do I interpret this accurately? And to what degree do you guys agree? For the 12 months to date, my offset return, in quotes, has dominated my various share or ETF investments of a similar value. is now the time mate to uh to pull some money out of shares or not contribute and whack it in the offset instead i i don't know because that's that's a different question isn't it because that's that's a there's a timing dimension to that so i don't i don't know and i know you do that deliberately um that's that's that's something i i don't know but i've long said that it is such a great guaranteed and attractive return especially accounting for tax i don't know why more people don't do it well actually do yeah the reason why you don't do it is because in an environment where things are going to the moon yeah you just what you want to do is let the leverage ride and take that money instead of paying off your into your offset account like take that and invest that elsewhere who does better well the person who went up to the eyeballs in leverage and bet at all they do and be much better than you but but they're also the kind of person that gets wiped out the second that there's a there's a hiccup so i i yeah i think the i'm you know why i'm hesitating here because i know that this is exactly against the lived experience for so many people out there which is save up a deposit buy a house build some equity roll it into a new house wash rinse repeat and it's just been a spectacularly successful strategy i just happen to think it's also an incredibly reckless one that we're we're basically saying it's good because so far it's been good in other words you and me have been playing russian roulette all year and we're still standing that's right therefore it's nothing to do what are you talking about it wasn't risky look we're still we're still both here it was just I'll be dead by now.

49:09It doesn't work out. So that's why I hesitate because there'll be people listening and go, that's not the experience. And had I done what you said, I would be far poorer than I am today. But it comes back to that anti-fragility again. And this is why your comment of know thyself is really important. And for me, and it depends, but for me, I am risk averse. I love the idea of a guaranteed return. I love the optionality that comes with the offset, right? In the sense that I get to sort of guaranteed saving in here. And then if something just lands on my lap or comes across the desk at one point in time, well, I've got a bunch of cash there that I can draw on to use it.

49:51When you get the fat pitch, swing, you bum. You know, swing, as Buffett says. And so that's a really nice opportunity as well. And if it's all said and done, and it just turns out that all you've done is just pay your loan off, and now you're mortgage free. And I don't have any mortgage or interest or cost. I certainly don't have any rent costs. That is a return of just incredible proportions. And then you can start looking at, well, paid that off. I guess I've got to start doing something else with my savings now. And then you can go from there. I don't ever think you'll heavily regret that decision going in that direction, but it was the wrong thing to do over the last 15, 20 years.

50:31So I acknowledge that. yeah i'm gonna try and take this about four different directions and do it reasonably quickly mate so watch me watch me fall spectacularly off the tightrope um okay brendan here we go uh first thing you talk about the last 12 months of returns and the fact that the offset smashed those returns over the last 12 months uh that is absolutely true obviously uh will that be the same in the next 12 months i don't know 12 months after i don't know i wouldn't you and by the way if you if you'd had 20 share market returns last last 12 months i still wouldn't use that as an as a decision data point when it comes to whether or not to put money in the offset the last one months the last 12 months the next 12 months are probably going to be different because they very rarely are the same year on year could be a lot more could be a lot less could be a little bit more a little bit less don't know so i understand the experience you look at that and go on man my investing has sucked so far i could have got 5.74 percent in the offset what the hell was i doing hindsight's always 20 20 the question though is obviously you know this but just to make the point uh look forward shouldn't i just do that again next year well i don't know because i don't know what's happening to the share market next year so that's the first on that one second thing uh we've talked before or possibly in the future around because we're pre-recording this and i can't remember the sequence either uh about offsets offsets are wonderful except that the banks offer them because they know you're probably going to spend the money yeah so is it is a 5.74 guarantee paying off the mortgage good absolutely is a 5.74 saving while you put aside 50 grand you're then going to use to buy a new car in three years time of saving no that's officially false economy because you've literally kind of done something you thought you're going to do it's not about you brendan it's about me and ram and anybody else the money just sitting there burning a hole in your pocket looking at that account every now and again 50 grand there 50 grand there if i could buy the hylux for that 50 grand there 50 grand there do you use tesla's about that price i could put a pool in you know we should renovate the the back room uh you know all of a sudden so it should be really really careful equity might be really careful right about using that.

52:26Now, it's easier than, you know, equity, mate, was the redraw thing. This is even better slash worse, right? It's like it's just - But you are drawing on your equity value though, right? It is a credit card. It is absolutely. It's what the banks do. I made that point in the episode we recorded, which may or may not have come out. But yeah, it's a credit card. Exactly. So be mindful of that. Now, you might be one of the people who can be disciplined about it. Plenty of people can. Even more people can't. So just be careful about that. Next one. 5.4 or 7.4 % is a great return. uh i want to just mention the fact that we talk about capital gains and dividends and stuff that's true um but just be mindful of the specific tax rate of those things so uh cash in the bank full tax rate uh on the on the interest dividends yeah if they're franked you're going to pay a meaningful reduction so just be careful not to assume that all those gains capital gains tax half your marginal rate so when you do the calculations it doesn't change it markedly necessarily just be mindful don't take your marginal tax rate and say, well, obviously, therefore, it's the same as earning this in capital gains or this in dividends, because those two are tax advantaged relative to earned income for reasons we can argue about later.

53:31But they are currently anyway. And so just be mindful of that. If you're paying 15 % on your dividends, well, that's, you know, what does 5.74 go to? 6.2, something like that. The hurdle comes down a lot. So be mindful of that. Thirdly, you made the point, Ram, I think it's third. If it's fourth, my apologies, I can't count. You made the point about pay your mortgage off, then you can think about investing other stuff. The one big reason I would say to people before you pay off or pay down your mortgage, the one thing to think about is the mortgage at the moment is forced saving. You're putting money aside every month because you've got to pay the bank back.

54:08I'm not saying don't pay it back more quickly. I'm just saying you have to do it. There's no choice. Once you pay the mortgage off, I don't know, what's a mortgage these days? Four grand a month for average mortgage? I don't know, something like that. The four grand you're paying off, you should take that money and put it in shares to make up for the missed compounding in the old in the old days when you were paying off the mortgage so many people go oh thank god we paid off the mortgage i really want to go to italy i think we should redo the bathroom and again the same issues of are you going to make yourself put that money aside the worst thing you do is say i'm gonna leave it on the mortgage pay the mortgage instead of investing i'll get a better return the mortgage is paid down you say thank god that's done i think i'll spend that money and all of a sudden 25 years later you go oh that's right i was supposed to save that money wasn't i never quite got around to i never quite did it things got a little bit what blah blah blah so just be just be careful about the way again not you brendan but listeners generally i love the forced savings of a mortgage i know it's not perfect i know it's not i'm not saying the returns are going to be spectacular around this point before i'm just saying it makes you buy it makes you invest in an asset that you will own at some point when it's paid off i mean you don't you know, redraw and, you know, keep trying to trade up and trade up and trade up.

55:15Eventually you own this thing. And whether it's worth half a million, million, one and a half million, two million, whatever the numbers end up being in 10, 15, 20 years, you'll have an asset worth that and they can't take it away from you. So that's what I love about forced saving. Ram has made the point many times, arithmetically, it's often better to rent and invest rather than own your own home. And I'm not saying you shouldn't do that either. Just saying if you go to any of those things, you need to do the other bit. You can't just say, I'm going to rent because it's better to rent and invest.

55:38Did you invest? No, I never quite got around to it. or I'm going to pay the mortgage off and then I'll invest after that. Did you end up investing? No, never quite got around to it. Or I invested some, but not all because I need to live. We tell ourselves all these amazing stories. That's why I love superannuation. I've said a million, bazillion times. Super is great because you look around the world, no other nation without compulsory savings invests and saves as much as we do in Australia because we have to. All the best of intentions are great. You just don't end up doing it. So they're probably the thoughts.

56:09That being said, for all of that, Brennan, I have zero issue with anyone deciding to pay the money off the mortgage or put in the offset. I'd rather pay the mortgage down, by the way, Matt. If it was me, increase the amount in your offset to cover a rainy day fund and then put the rest on the mortgage. Just make yourself do it. That way you don't attempt to redraw it. You don't always redraw it. You don't attempt to use the offset. It's just an extra psychological hurdle to put in your own way to make sure you don't do something like that. But I have no problem. 5.74 is good. Maybe it's 6.5%, 7%.

56:41after tax breaks on shares with dividends and capital gains. The average in the market is 9 or 10-ish, maybe 9. Are you going backwards slowly versus that? Yeah, kind of, to some degree. Over time, that compound difference, by the way, can be huge, so be mindful of that. But as Ram said, if you do it, you'll never regret it, as long as you don't use the offset and go and buy a car or re-draw the money or something else. Yep. How'd it go, mate? Was that okay? Four or five bullet points? Yeah, there's a lot to consider. There is. I think it's like not just in this question, but in so many questions investors naturally have, we desire the optimum approach.

57:22And who doesn't? I want to do this in the most optimal way possible. But you can't ever know what that is in advance. You really can't. So I just think perfect is the enemy of the good often when it comes to investing. It's a really profound fact for me at least that some of the smartest people like measured via IQ or similar tend to be the worst investors. A million percent. You know, and it's because they have that. They are. I mean, they're smart, but there's no question about it. They'll run circles around me in IQ, which is not hard to do, by the way. But they usually have an arrogance associated with that.

58:03They've been so good at solving so many problems, their capacity to solve problems, that they can solve the market. I mean, the greatest example of all time is long-term capital management. So just Google that. Read the Wikipedia article on it. LTCN. They had Nobel laureates amongst their investment board. They had mathematical models that they developed themselves. Just, you know, everything going for them, and it blew up spectacularly. 100%. and I'm just when it comes to I mean there's a spectrum here as well there are those that are just getting on with life got a bit of excess savings and just want to do something sensible with it there are others like you or me who just like really love it and go right down the rabbit hole and spend a lot of time doing it but wherever you are sort of on the spectrum I think there's a huge amount to be said for the KISS principle I mean keep it simple stupid it is is you call me?

58:58yeah yeah the uh it it it is some yeah doing oh i'm trying to i'm trying to um grasp for the manga quote but it's not about doing the remarkable it's about doing the ordinary yeah consistently yeah help me out with the quote because i've i'm i i can't i'm trying to google while you're talking i think it's basically you said something like we just we haven't done anything spectacular we just haven't done any dumb things or something something along those lines it was that kind of you know we're just trying to do the sensible thing at consistently and and that's it it is remarkable said manga how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent that's it that is it that is it 100 and i know it is again repeating myself but there is i just don't think anyone is going to look back on their deathbed.

59:55And let's say you've just done some really basic, I've spent less than what I've earned. I've tipped the rest into a passive ETF and I've just got the hell on with the things that I'm interested in in life. And you're on your deathbed and you look back and over the last 30 years, I've compounded at 8 % per annum. Let's say that that's actually below the market a little bit. Who cares? Who honestly cares at that point? I guarantee you that's not a regret. The regret, however, is the person who spent a million dollars on some FX trading course and blew themselves up and spent huge amounts of time and effort and stress trying to do it because it was smarter and more sophisticated.

1:00:27No, I'm taking my investing really hyper-seriously. I was like, no. And for those that have done well out of it as well, as I've often said, I think you need inherent pleasure and interest in doing it beyond just the monetary because if you're going to spend 40 hours a week doing this and the end result is 2 % better than what you may have gotten in a passive ETF, we know that adds up, that compounds over time. but you've also got to look at it on a work-adjusted basis. I would heavily posit it as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, because what's – you can make the argument, the person who has done literally no work other than just sort of setting some automated process in there, their returns are smaller numerically but relative to the effort is stratospherically higher as well.

1:01:13I'll stress everything else that goes with that as well, not just the actual physical work but the emotional toll of all that sort of stuff as well. And think, too, that when people examine the big determinants of wealth creation, yeah, returns matter. But what's the most dominant factor? It's the savings rate. So really, for a lot of people, most people, maybe all people, you are probably better spending your time trying to generate more income rather than trying to generate so-called alpha. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. i think i am a million percent agree with you um for two blokes whose businesses or i'm an employer you own it but you know i mean whose businesses are in the business of helping people beat the market or trying to find market beating investments um either in a community or by direct recommendation the the simple reality and you know what i also like yourself please say the hell whatever the hell you want um you're lucky than me but i'm also incredibly lucky that i get to say these things despite the fact that it's actually bad for my employer right which is there's three things that drive your long-term returns one is the savings right as andrew said the second is time in the market the third by an extraordinarily long way is the average return of the investments you select because yes if you're buffett you can turn extraordinary amounts into even more extraordinary amounts but the reality is the the return the gain the and by the way no one's buffered right so your returns are going to be if you're good slightly better than the market most years on average over time you'll do better than the market which is great really good you should try to do that if you can that's a huge accomplishment yeah it's huge and it's super valuable like in dollars and cents it's really really important yeah but it's not i i but i can't do for my members you can't do for your community can't do for other for the other members of the community the things that can be done by starting five years earlier or saving 50 more you just you just can't like the math doesn't work that it just doesn't work i cannot make up for you starting five years later now i can help you do as well as you can after that i'm not saying don't try my point is starting earlier saving more those are those are the they are they are orders of magnitude more than getting 10.3 instead of 9.2 percent they just are right so and look you know if i if i was if i was in charge of my marketing department and we were a little less honest and whatever than we are.

1:03:37I said, no, it's all about the returns. I can solve your problems. I can fix it. I'll do my best. I'll get you better returns, hopefully, than you would have got otherwise. That's worth something, hopefully. And if you like it, you'll join the Motley Fool or you'll subscribe to Strawman. Absolutely. But I can't save the money for you and I can't get you started earlier. So do those things. If you absolutely have the choice, do those things. Yep. Yep. Well said. I reckon that's a pretty good place to finish, Matt. What do you reckon? Yeah. Yeah. I'm trying to think how many we average, questions we average in a bit over an hour.

1:04:08We got through five questions today. Five, okay. So there's something, maybe I ought to say we're very thorough in our answers or maybe long-winded in our answers. Well, five questions, three preambles, 14 tangents, a couple of repeating ourselves. The occasional by definition or it depends. That's a podcast. Bit of a rant. Bit of a rant in there, yeah. Bit of a rant. We used that with property. It was probably always inevitable, wasn't it, really? Oh, man. You know not to get me started, right? And yet I do it anyway because it's just fun. Oh, gosh. Mate, thank you for doing a special surprise mailbag for our listeners.

1:04:44We're going to be back with another mailbag on two mailbags. Is more mailbag ever enough, mate? That's my question. Well, I mean, when you get so many good questions, you've just got to do it, right? So it'll be market-driven as is aligned with our ideology. there you go we're all about market efficiencies thank you for listening to this episode we will be back next Sunday or this Sunday sorry with another mailbag and then next Friday with a more regular Motley Fool Money Edition but until then Fool on cheers

1:05:31The Motley Fool operates under Financial Services Licence 400691.

From the publisher

– Why do we only talk about auction results?

– Should I sell my shares when on maternity leave?

– Advice for female investors?

– How do you manage your rainy day fund?

– Surely it’s time to use the offset?

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