Bonus mailbag edition! October 11, 2024

11 Oct 2024 · 1 h 2 min

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Podcast Episode Notes: Motley Fool Money - Bonus Mailbag Edition! October 11, 2024

Episode Overview In this special mailbag episode, hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page respond to various listener questions ranging from property investment strategies to personal finance queries. The episode combines humor, expert insights, and practical advice for listeners navigating the complexities of investing and financial planning.

Key Topics and Discussions

  1. The Bull Case for Australian Property
  2. Listener Inquiry: A listener, Tom, asks the hosts to present a positive case for investing in Australian property despite current market challenges.
  3. Scott's Perspective:
  4. Supply vs. Demand: There is a persistent demand for housing, bolstered by government incentives, while supply remains stagnant.
  5. Government Interventions: Historical interventions by the government and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) support property prices, suggesting that prices may not fall significantly even if they should naturally do so.
  6. Long-Term Outlook: The hosts discuss the potential for housing prices to appreciate over time despite economic fluctuations and challenges.
  1. Transitioning from ETFs to Individual Stocks
  2. Listener Inquiry: Mo, a listener, seeks advice on when to transition from ETFs to individual stock picking after having success in investing.
  3. Andrew's Advice:
  4. Risk Assessment: Emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance and the potential downsides of individual stock picking.
  5. Start Small: Suggests starting with a small percentage (e.g., 10%) of capital in individual stocks while maintaining the bulk in ETFs.
  6. Learning Mindset: Encourage listeners to document their investment thesis to remain focused and assess performance accurately over time.
  1. Cost of Financial Advice
  2. Listener Inquiry: A listener named John questions the fairness of paying $39,000 per year for financial advice on a $12 million portfolio largely invested in ETFs.
  3. Key Discussions:
  4. Value for Money: Scott and Andrew argue that if the advice is primarily to invest in low-cost ETFs, the fees seem excessive.
  5. Quality of Advice: They emphasize that good financial advisors can provide significant value, especially during market downturns.
  6. Alternatives: Suggest considering a fixed fee or a capped percentage fee instead of a continuous percentage of assets.
  1. Capital Gains Tax and Property Subdivision
  2. Listener Inquiry: Anje asks about capital gains tax implications of selling part of their principal residence after amalgamating properties.
  3. Expert Opinion:
  4. Seek Professional Advice: Scott emphasizes that this scenario involves complex tax implications and should be discussed with an accountant or financial advisor.
  5. Consideration of Tax Impact: While capital gains tax is a factor, it’s crucial to evaluate the benefits of selling a property against the tax costs.

Key Takeaways

  • Investment Strategy: Understanding the dynamics of supply and demand in the property market is essential for making informed investment decisions.
  • Incremental Investment: Transitioning from ETFs to individual stocks should be approached gradually, with careful consideration of risk.
  • Value of Professional Advice: Not all financial advice is created equal. It’s vital to evaluate whether the cost aligns with the value provided.
  • Tax Implications: Complex financial decisions, especially those involving property and potential tax liabilities, warrant professional guidance.

Closing Remarks The hosts conclude the episode with lighthearted banter and a reminder of the importance of informed financial decision-making while encouraging listeners to adapt their strategies to their personal circumstances and market conditions.

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Note

  • For further insights and financial advice, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the newsletter at fool.com.au/LiSTNR and to tune into future episodes of Motley Fool Money.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:01A listener production.

0:07This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome to, yeah, a very special Friday Mailbag. I'm actually in Jindabyne right now, just out of Jindabyne actually. I'm camping, taking a week off in the school holidays with my young bloke and my wife and another family from school. And so I'm here, but I'm not really here. And we thought we would bring you a surprise Friday Mailbag. Don't worry, we've still got Sundays coming up, but we will do a Friday mailbag as well because we've got lots of wonderful questions and we want to get to them. When I say we, of course, I'm referring to myself. I'm Scott Phillips from The Motley Fool.

0:43He is Andrew Page Esquire, if you don't mind. The founder, managing director. Yes, I believe he still does all the cooking and the bottle washing of strawman.com. Australia's premier online investment club. Mr. Page, how are you? Good, mate. holding down the fort while you bugger off on another holiday somewhere around our beautiful country. But yeah, it's good. You enjoy yourself. You gave me grief about adding to inflation. Can I tell you, this holiday, I've got to love this, by the way. How good is it? National parks. I'm paying for five nights exactly$6. Not per night,$6. Camping in most national parks is free.

1:24You have to pay a booking fee, which is$6, to use a reservation system. So there you go. I'm not adding to inflation. I'm bringing inflation down. I'd probably be spending my money if I was at home, frankly. So if I'm somewhere out of mobile range and my lady wife's out of mobile range, more importantly, I'm probably doing my bit to reduce demand. So you can thank me later for taking a bit of time off. Well, I'm hearing you, but I do wonder, as I wonder out loud, whether that fee covers the costs for the ranges, the monitoring. No, it doesn't. So you're welcome again for part of my taxes to allow you to enjoy a holiday.

2:04You are very, very welcome. Yes, no fair. Yeah, I'm going to enjoy it anyway. Let's not go on too much of a tangent. We should at one point have a discussion about user pays. We should. We really should. It's impossible to – well, I'd think impossible to be absolute in one direction or another. But you're right. I mean, we pay for toll roads. we don't pay for highways. I'm not paying for this camp spot. That being said, the camp spot itself is probably costing almost nothing to maintain. The range will do their thing about, you know, feral brumbies and plants and whatever else they do any other time anyway.

2:36There is park entry fees, by the way, so I'm paying those. Don't worry about that. Okay, good. I'm getting a slug to actually turn up. The camping itself is$6, but, man, a Kosciuszko National Park pass, it's bloody expensive. Trust me when I say I'm contributing to the upkeep of the park. But, no, it's a fascinating concept. It was a fascinating conversation. And in fact, it's full of, it's the kind of conversation you have where it's sort of like, you start off with a, we should do this. And it usually comes from, well, I don't use that. Why should I pay for that? And then you get, the more you get into it, more go, wow, like to be perfectly fair is almost logistically impossible.

3:17So yeah, anyway, it's a fascinating conversation. I don't know if I have a firm opinion on it other than I always just enjoy a good combo on these kinds of things. No, I don't either. I mean, I think we'll end up saying it depends, right, as you like to say. Because, you know, should health be user-pays? Should education be user-pays? Should parks be user-pays? Should public space be user-pays? I'm not in a wheelchair. Why should there be a ramp out the front here? And I don't care until I very much care. It's sort of, yeah. And then there's just the role of society. What does that mean? And democracy and proportional representation also.

3:49sorts of stuff so i mean you know art galleries versus sports facilities uh there is there is probably a modest overlap of people who do both but not a big one and so it's kind of like you know the sports people don't care about the arts the art people don't care about the sports stadiums we kind of do both because there's different groups anyway let's not have the conversation but it's a fascinating i would just say that the basis of a lot of my thinking on this is based on games like civilization and there you go something to learn from for all of us absolutely you're Tell me your game is education now.

4:18Speaking of justifications, is that what you're trying to tell me? Oh, look, you learn a bit of history, you know. I think I know a lot more about ancient technologies and, you know, various tech trees that I would ever understand if I didn't. The cutlass and the catapult. Exactly. Yeah, exactly. Very good. Or trebuchet, if you prefer. Oh, yes. Thank you very much. That's a dedicated. What's the difference? Is there a functional difference? Trebuchet has, well, case in point. So a trebuchet has a counterweight. Is that right? Yes. Where a catapult is more a tension store of force, as I understand it.

4:55Now, having said that, we're going to get an email next week. We really will. Actually. We really will. And I look forward to sharing that next week with others. No, I'm kidding. Mate, let's go to some questions from our listeners because we are doing a special surprise mailbag. Tom sent us an email. He said, G'day, Scott and Andrew Goggins. this in brackets reference to david goggins and my first thought was who the hell is david goggins so i looked him up and you'll be happy to know that you're being compared to david goggins who is a retired american or u.s navy seal he's also an ultra marathon runner ultra distance cyclist triathlete public speaker author of two memoirs and was inducted into the international sports hall of fame for his achievements in sport i i think i i think i remember passing him last weekend so that makes sense that checks yeah i like the i like the reference thank you tom uh so i'm a long-time listener of your fantastic show and proudly now a second time questioner i wrote to you about 18 months ago to discuss the opportunities in agriculture because i was leaving my secure well-paying job to go work in my field of passion ag tech i remember that one oh yeah i recall andrew issuing a word of warning in his usual sage and wise way of it depends.

6:13Well, sadly, I have to report it did not work out as intended and I had to return to the corporate world, tail slightly between the legs in an effort to ensure the financial security of my young family. Sorry, it didn't work out, Tom, but good on you for having a go, mate. By the way, no shame in that whatsoever, right? That is more often than not the common experience. I know some of my early ventures did not go particularly well. And you know what you do, You learn a hell of a lot. You learn a hell of a lot through sort of trying and falling short. And I just have the utmost respect for people who gave it a crack.

6:48So, yeah, hang your head high. Lift your head high. Just to have tried it and to take that risk, I think, is very admirable. One day, Andrew, I'll tell you about my small business story when I was in university, but that's going to be for another day. Oh, I look forward to that. Okay. So he says, the main – you're liking Tommy even more in a minute. The main financial burden that forced my hand in this instance was the increasing cost of housing and paying the mortgage. Unfortunately, in the time it took for me to get back into a full-time paying role, my wife and I had to sell a third of our shares to make ends meet and keep our house.

7:22As such, I'm feeling glam at the moment about the state of housing in this country, and I cannot get the vision of the Easter Island statues out of my head, as Andrew has so eloquently described before. Is this Tom Page? It might be. It's very complimentary. therefore he says to try and put a positive spin on this and mostly try and cheer myself up i thought it might be instructive to look at the bull case for australian property as you scott and andrew have both been outspoken advocates for the understanding the opposing side of any idea you have i thought it might be a very interesting and thought-provoking exercise to hear your thoughts on this therefore you're not gonna like this bit my challenge to you is lay out the bull case for the Australian property market.

8:02I, for one, would, and I'm sure many listeners would as well, seriously enjoy listening to Andrew through grid at tea make the case, even if just for a bit of fun. He says, P.S. Andrew, while I appreciate this might be your idea of torture, I used to think your rants about Bitcoin were as well. However, your persistence in your arguments over time gradually helped me overcome my preconceived ideas. And slowly I started to appreciate your perspective. so much so that recently I've started dabbling in a bit of Bitcoin myself. Goes without saying though, like any good mid-30s male, if Bitcoin goes to the moon, I'll tell everyone it was my own genius.

8:38However, if it goes horribly wrong, I'll have no alternative but to blame a certain chief cook and bottle washer on a pod machine selling snake oil. In all seriousness, guys, I absolutely love the show. It's compulsory listening every weekend. Come to Toowoomba anytime and do a live episode. We will be thrilled to have you. Tom, we'll put it on the list. I'm not sure we'll get to this woman, but if we do, mate, we'll definitely look you up and we'll buy you a beer. All right. I love that. Well, Andrew will buy you a beer. You'd be nicer to him than me. Okay, mate. Pool case for Australian property.

9:07Go. Well, this is an easy one, right? So the first pool case is that I don't like it, right? So that's the way that the universe works is there's, you know, some omnipotent being up there that goes, you know. Just laughing at you. What do they say when God laughs when people make plans? That's right. Something like that. So that's the first bull case. The second one I think is twofold. It's the good old supply and demand. Demand doesn't seem to be going away. The government seems to be doing everything it can to spur on more demand. and the supply response is woeful, inadequate, depressing, I don't know, whatever other adjective you want to throw at it.

9:54So that whatever that dynamic is in play, that's going to make it hard. I think too you are going to find, and this is what, this is the thing that's undone me and many bears in the past is because we look at a world in which all else is equal. In other words, if left to its own devices, this market cannot go on. Which was Steve Keen's mistake, like, what was it, 15, 20 years ago now? Oh, yeah, probably. And the answer was, well, I would have been right if the government hadn't changed their – or the RBA hadn't dropped rates. It's like the ifs are the problem, right? That's – so – and I think he was right, actually, in that regard, which was if there wasn't stimulatory measures or, you know, regulatory changes, then it would have because it's just like things tend to sort of collapse under their own weight after a while.

10:44So that's the bull case. There's still a massive shortfall. I imagine we've already started to see it when, you know, just what happened with a blink of an eye ago in the GFC, we had all banking royal commissions and all this advice came down saying we should probably think about lending ratios and, you know, capital requirements, et cetera, et cetera, and we've just wound it all back. so it's already it's already happening you've got you know various politicians saying that you know we should raid various honey pots you know we should give additional subsidies so that's what i think is probably the best best thing going for property at the moment it's not that it makes any financial sense from a cash flow perspective because it just doesn't um it it could just go on longer than you might reasonably expect because of everything including the kitchen sink will be thrown at it to preserve it because and that doesn't make it it it's kind of like a really dumb thing to do except we've pushed things so far where the alternative is arguably worse so you're in a between a rock and a hard place now it's like well gosh do we sort of let things do we let the market sort of sort itself out you could argue that that would be very painful but probably better longer term but you know incredible amounts of human suffering along the way or do we just kind of try and muddle through and do whatever we can to prevent it happening even though that itself has all kinds of consequences for human suffering and you know increasing homelessness and you know domestic violence and you just at least as long as your arm of all of these horrible consequences that come from housing insecurity and financial financial distress so this is why I've always sort of said despite my bearishness and I don't know how you would short it anyway I guess you short the banks, but I wouldn't short it.

12:32There's no way I would short it. And for all of those reasons, we'll see what happens. I mean, you tend to find when property bubbles do collapse, and we do have a lot of examples in history, even in recent history, even with very comparable companies in the West, they do tend to reach a point where it's sort of like, there's not much you can do at all um uh and i don't think we're near that situation yet although we're getting closer and as i've said to you that the the analogy i like to give it's with the rubber band i mean you can keep stretching it and it looks really taut it's going to snap any second and then you'll yank it back another centimeter and it still holds you know just i don't know when the breaking point will be and it's and by the way it's not as though you have to sort of see a 50 % collapse and that kind of stuff.

13:26It could just be a very slow malaise that just lasts for a decade or two where things sort of pull back a little bit from the top and just go, actually, this is the most desirable scenario, it goes sideways for a hell of a long time. Or it could just be that you bleed three, four, five percent capital gains for five years until things start to sort of normalize and then go sideways for a bit. I don't know. I wouldn't be going long. I wouldn't be going short. I'm sort of happy to watch from the sidelines. And just the usual thing i just need to just add in here before i hand the mic back to you mate is is that i really want to distinguish between property as an investment and property as a utility so if you're buying somewhere to live i i think there's a very different consideration than if you're buying purely for an investment return yeah agree um i don't know i can add much more to that mate um I mean, there is the what could happen, what is likely to happen, what will happen.

14:21I mean, they're all different things, right? So I could invent a story in which property doubles on the basis of the things you've talked about and more, right? So interest rates are you borrow 105 % of property prices all of a sudden. The banks are allowed to pretend you don't have a hex debt, which is what some people are calling for, which is madness because you've got to pay the money back. Pretend it doesn't exist. It's just stupid. You can raid your super and use your entire super balance for housing. there are a lot of things that could happen and when you ask for the bull case I guess Tom I mean there's possibles and probables and whatever if I was going to lay out the most probable and even the bull case what is the bull case?

14:56is it doesn't crash? is it goes up 50 %? 20 %? 10 %? 5 % a year? what is the bull case? it's kind of hard to know sorry to interrupt but that's actually my concern when just anecdotal conversations of people just it is said as a law of nature property doubles every seven years and now that's kind of happened for a while but when you look at it now and it's getting as i've made the case before do the maths on that right let's double again and let's double again i don't know what doubling point we get to a point which is completely untenable but you you you extend and extrapolate that line to a point and you've got like a one bedroom unit at four billion dollars And I don't know, somewhere between then and now is where it breaks.

15:39So, sorry. But I just, I think that's just worth noting. No, I think it is. I think it's really important, mate. I think that's kind of where I'm, so, you know, what is the bull case? It depends on what you're asking, right? How can it probably go up? I think it probably does go up over time. The question is how quickly and to your point around what that looks like. um i suspect that um population i i really wish i didn't have to talk about population anymore because i don't really like it and it's ugly and messy and i've said before i give too much space and time to racist xenophobes who want to jump on that and say yeah yeah see the brown people are bad they're they're coming and taking our jobs it's not what i'm saying at all um it's not about the race it's not about the religion it's not about the uh taking our jobs rhetoric or any of that sort of stuff.

16:26It's just that in any system when... You talked a lot about supply and demand, mate, about the fact that the queue for high prices, high prices. That's true if the market operates free and fair, right? If you have a limitation, natural, geographic, regulatory, cost, whatever it is, that exceeds the ability of people to pay, you're not going to get more supply just because you've got more demand. You're going to have a market that just is sucky. And you'll find an equilibrium of sorts, But that means the equilibrium is people living in their cars and, you know, bunking in with mates in the same bedroom.

16:58And, you know, is that an equilibrium? At some level, economically defined, yes. Is it an equilibrium in any other sense? Or is it a good academic sense? No. So, you know, I really honestly, the bull case for me is for as long as we keep having household formation growing at a greater rate than supply, there is no other alternative. I mean, you have more homelessness. You'll have more people, as you say, in massive financial stress. But a house isn't, you can choose not to buy a laptop. You can choose not to buy a second pair of jeans. You can't not choose to have somewhere to live. I mean, you can, but it means a cardboard box or sleeping in the car under a bridge.

17:33This is not a, this is not, it shouldn't be seen as a market. I mean, it is the way it operates, but we shouldn't allow it to operate in the way that a market for a consumable want as opposed to fundamental human right, which is shelter, should operate. But the most plausible bull case for me for property is just population growth. because supply is probably not going to grow as fast as it would need to. And even if it did, the lag on that between development consent, zoning, then development application, then development approval, then building time, then, I mean, we're talking years. Like, even if right now we said, oops, we've got a problem, let's fix supply.

18:16And even if you took away most of the constraints, most of which you shouldn't take away because kind of, you know, amenity and safety and building quality matter. But if you could, you're still years away from that. And so, honestly, I think whatever pollies, they don't even have to mess with the RBA. They don't have to mess with the money side. They may do, but they don't have to. They have to mess with tax. You just simply say, leave the door open. See what happens. And I don't blame people who want to come to Australia. Australia's a fantastic place and better than most places in the world, not because I'm being jingoistic, just because on any, you know, measure of life satisfaction.

18:50We score in the top 10 almost every time, right? And so that means there's 170-odd countries that score below us. Most of those people will be like, well, if I could live in Australia, I would say, I don't blame them. I suspect that's the strongest bull case. It's just no actual action, just a bit of a blind eye to population growth and Bob's your uncle, house prices don't go down. Yeah. It's such a problem for people who need a roof over their heads. I actually think it has a huge problem for business as well. There's a shop around the corner from our house that closed the other day. I was like, wow, that was always had people in it.

19:27I don't know what's going on, but my bias and speculation is just sort of like, I bet you if you look at the cost base of that business, like rent was like by far, by far the biggest expense. And so you do get to a point, you speak to any tenants in Westfield, right? They'll tell you the same story. They'll gladly tell you the same story. It's just sort of like it's such an extractive, you know, arrangement that even when you're getting good turnover and everything else is doing well, it's just like all of the wealth is accruing to the land or to the owner of the property, which means that to even get a decent business income, you've got to be an exceptional business.

20:09Yeah. And so like the downstream consequences of a high property price, which again is itself not the productive component in that whole operation. You need, you know, for a lot of businesses, you need somewhere to operate. I'm not saying it's unimportant, but it's not the productive component of it, right? It's like I build the bricks, I lay the slab, I put up the paint. You do all the work, you put all the machinery in, you get all the raw materials, you take all of the risk, but I'll just cream basically all of the profit. And you kind of have to. I'm not having a go particularly at landlords here because it's sort of like when their finance expenses are so high and the property prices themselves are so high.

20:51So they just like they need a certain return to justify it. And it kind of feeds on itself where it's like, well, it needs to be like this for it to make sense for me, which means that none of you can be viable. Again, at a point, I don't know when it is, I don't know when it snaps, but at a point it just will not work. Because look at this particular place that I'm completely making up a fictional story of because I have no idea. Maybe they won Powerball. We're out, right? But you get to a point where it's just sort of like nothing works. Nothing works as a consequence of that. And I don't know.

21:35I just, I despair. I despair with it all. On that happy note, let's move on to a question from Mo who says, good morning, lads. It's actually afternoon, although again, as I'm sure it's always Tuesday afternoon somewhere. I've been investing for almost four years now. And although missing out on a lot of the initial return on the back of COVID in 2020, I've comfortably beaten the market return. Ironically enough, my straw man portfolio has returned below market average as I invested this with much less risk. and what I thought would be more prudent with that amount of money. Although I've had a lot of success to begin with, I put down to mostly luck, I'm wondering when you personally felt confident enough that picking your own stocks would beat the market consistently enough to continue and not just go and buy some ETFs.

22:20Thanks for your time and hope to hear your reply. Regards, Mo. Mo, I'm going to assume you're a little bit younger than Andrew and I because just settle back here. Let Grandpa Andrew and Grandpa Scott tell you a story about a time when there actually weren't ETFs. I was going to say there weren't an option when I started. So it was easy, Mo. We didn't have a choice. We could have invested in listed investment companies. They've been around forever. But ETFs weren't a thing. I don't know if it feels weird to say, and I'm glad it feels weird because ETFs have been wonderful for a lot of people. We didn't have a choice.

22:50And I wonder whether – I mean, the counterfactual on Mo is a really good question, right? In some other universe, you and I are ETF investors, and we're not picking stocks. and it's a very, very different journey because we get ETFs early, we get the idea, we get the appeal of investing in businesses, but we kind of go, well, ETFs are fine. Why would I change? So why are we still the stock pickers? Probably because we started that way. It's entirely possible that in some parallel universe, the 2020 version of Scott and Andrew was a very different one to the old Grandpa Scott and Grandpa Andrew you have now.

23:23Mate, Mo mentioned Strawman and the fact the Strawman provider is not doing quite as well because he's been a little risk averse. But he's kind of asking, how do you know? How would you know? How would someone like Mo know that it's time to go step out of the safety of ETFs and reach for the potentially higher return, but obviously also potentially lower return of picking individual stocks? It's such a good point to make that we've touched on this. I want to say in one of the recent pods that we've done of how not taking enough risk is really risky, which is really going to mess with your brain.

24:01It's absolutely the right thing to do when you've got a fairly short timeframe, but over a long timeframe, it is super risky to have your money in bonds and cash. You're not going to lose any money, but the opportunity cost is so massive. So it's sort of there is, I think being too conservative is a bad move. even with things like i don't want to you know slaughter any um sacred cows here but diversification you can overdo that i mean what does buffett call it diversification you know it's a lynch thing but you're right oh it's a little bit of lynch right okay you're right no sorry yeah um but you're right it's exactly the same idea i just got the wrong one spreading too much stuff out you're absolutely right yeah it's crazy right it's just like what's the point of having 200 stocks it's just you might as well just get the index right at that kind of at that kind of point yeah the other thing i'll say about the straw man portfolios um is that they're play money and you there is no substitute i'm not trying to shoot myself in the foot here there's no substitute for doing the real thing yeah because no matter what you do you will not apply the same due diligence you will you will not react in the same way to loss or gain when it's play money.

25:19Watch people play poker online versus poker for cash. I'm a brilliant. When I'm playing with matchsticks, I am a savant when it comes to poker. I will win every time. People take stupid risks online to win a game because if you lose, you go back to zero and that's okay because you re-up the next day and start again as if new portfolio, new profile, start again. You lose with real money. You can't just go, oh, game's over. I'll start again. I'll respawn with another million bucks. Let's go again. You can do that on Strongman too. you can reset your portfolio, you know? And, and, you know, I'm, again, I'm, I'm probably undermining the value prop here, but it is a, it is a very good point to sort of make.

25:56So I think, again, it doesn't have to be a binary thing. I'm all passive or I'm all active. I, I think you leg your way in, you know, start with a 90, 10 split, take 10 % of your capital, invest directly in shares. As you gain confidence and experience, you can adjust that as in the direction that you that you feel is appropriate one of the one of the dangers with that though is is mistaking noise for signal in the sense that you do exactly that you put 10 of your capital in real into indirect shares six months later you've doubled your money and you'll be going oh i should have put the whole lot in i'm a genius or what these etfs are rubbish what am i doing sell everything and then you go all in just before the market crashes or vice versa you have a terrible run and go, this is a mugs game.

26:44So you've got to understand, I think you need to define in advance what is success. Now it's easy to sort of look back over a five-year period and say, you know, the share price is going to be a pretty good proxy for what the business did over a timeframe like that. But you are going to get all kinds of scenarios where businesses that are on an underlying basis performing really well where the share price hasn't and vice versa. So I would sort of, this is why we're always harping on about write down your investment thesis. I'm going to put 10 % of my capital in this company and I'm buying this company because, because I think dot, dot, dot, right?

27:19Now, not because I think the share price is going to go up. I mean, ultimately that has to be the expectation, but why is the share price going to go up? And there's only one, well, there's two reasons why the share price will go up. Everyone gets in a super bullish mood and the sentiment improves or the underlying fundamentals improve and the outlook along with that improves or some combination of all of those. and so you can't you can't um predict sentiment and and the mood of uh of of mobs but you you can have a hope of sort of trying to predict where the business is going to be so if you sort of say listen i'm buying x y and z i feel as though they're sort of on track to deliver five six seven eight percent kind of earnings per share growth over the next few years if you sort of look back even after a year it's kind of like you know what they've kind of grown in that ballpark the guidance they've given was in that ballpark.

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28:08There's been no material change to the business. It still seems like it's on track. Whatever's happened with the share price, I kind of say, well, you're right. You were right. And eventually the market will agree with you. It might not agree with you immediately, but it's a whole weighing versus voting machine kind of metaphor. So just make sure you set the benchmarks appropriately, leg in gently, find your way. You'll make all kinds of mistakes. Everyone does. I do every day, you know, just you, you'll continue to make mistakes, but you'll make, hopefully you won't make the same ones again and again.

28:42And the, and the, and the magnitude of the mistakes will be smaller and you'll just get better and better and better. Or, or you might just find that even with a bit of success, he goes, gosh, it's as hard work and it's not the kind of work I enjoy. I'm just going to go with the ETFs and no shame in that whatsoever. So yeah, that's what I think. I, man, um, I think what I love about ETFs is you don't have to move away from them. I've got ETFs. Right, me too. And you can kind of afford to then – so I guess my point to Mo is you don't need to – I think you wait until you know that you know because you're getting a guaranteed market return.

29:23Now, the return itself is not guaranteed, but you're guaranteed to get that market return, whatever it is, less tiny amounts of fees as long as you're buying super low cost, broad index ETFs, which are the only ones I recommend people buy more or less. And I think, not that I'm saying Mo should do this, I can't give him personal advice. But I think for all of that, so you get the market return, right? So you only want to step out of that when you have a reasonably high probability of beating that, because otherwise, you know, why take the risk? If it's a 50-50 thing, stay with what you got, because you're doing a lot of work for no return.

29:56If it's 60-40, you start to think about it. I think, I would say to Mo, the great thing, I'll give straw man a wrap. The great thing about straw man is you can do your ETF investing with your own money, and use straw man or something else to do that idea of like, what if I did it myself? What would that look like? Now, as Andrew says, there's no substitute for putting your own money in, but you can use that and make it, you know, wait until you know. If you're Buffett and you spend 10 years in ETFs rather than investing yourself, do you lose some potential upside? Yeah, absolutely. But is it that much upside?

30:23Not really because it's only the difference between the market and what you would have got. And if you're going to beat the market by 1 % or 2 % a year over that 10 years, it's not going to cost you that much. I'm not saying wait 10 years. I'm just saying you can afford to because the ETF return on the market has traditionally been so good. I suspect it will be forever, but no guarantees. I can't make promises or forecasts because you got that. It's a really nice bogey to start with. And it should be hard to beat, right? Because only half the market's going to beat it by definition. It's what averages do.

30:50How do you work out you're in that half? Well, do it for a while. Do it with your own money if you want to, with a small amount of money, do the rest of the ETFs or do it with a straw man type portfolio or literally straw man portfolio and see what happens there while you invest in ETFs otherwise and make the move when you feel like you've got a reasonable basis for believing you can do better than the index. It's a really, it's a great problem though. It's a great question. As Andrew likes to say, I wouldn't overthink it. I think you just go, hey, I'm going to get the market return. If that's 9 % a year or so, if you never ever do anything else, you'll be fine.

31:19It's like you're adding enough money, you've got enough time. And when you do look at it, hang on, i'm i enjoy this and i think i'm i'm seem like i'm doing okay at it and i have a reason to believe i'm going to keep doing okay because the ones i've done well haven't been a fluke i've kind of worked it out and i followed the thesis to andrew's point why should the share price go up well i thought it was this and turns out i was right not not right about the share price right about the things i expected to have happen then you start to think well that seems to me that i'm not terrible at this maybe i should do it more of it and so you just literally at some point wait till you've proven to yourself and then and then dip your toe in the water and then the ankle than the leg and then kind of go from there as it makes sense to do so.

31:58ETS is just such a wonderful backstop. You don't need to overthink it, I don't think. The post-mortem of any investment decision is so super critical, even on the good ones, right? And you've got to be honest with yourself that there have been times where I've done really well on an investment, but for the wrong reasons. Like I bought it for reasons X, Y, and Z. And six months later, a takeover offer came completely out of the blue. not on my radar, no expectation of it. And just, Oh, Oh, look, I want a great investment. I mean, well, maybe we actually don't know. I just got lucky if that, if that takeover had never come, maybe it never would have my expectations never would have been fulfilled.

32:39So it's, it's really important to do that. Oh. And one other thing I wanted to say before we go to the next question, I listened to a podcast recently with Aswath Damadaran, who's the NYU professor. He's sort of specializes in valuation. a lot of good stuff on youtube if you really want to dive into the weeds on this kind of stuff anyway he was on the podcast and and the host was asking him what if on your deathbed i sort of said to you you know what all of this work that you have done over your entire life if you were just invested in an index fund yeah you could what if you had made 50 basis points per year or you know a percent per year more than what you did would you be okay with that and his answer was i just thought it was great it was yeah i'm totally okay with that and i and he says i think that's critical because if you keep telling yourself i did the right thing therefore i should beat the market therein lies the seeds for being righteous for being indignant and for getting angry and when you're angry at markets nothing comes of that and i love i loved that you know it's that it's a i'm right the market's wrong it's like no the market is all even when the market is wrong it's right is that is a first painful lesson you have to have anyway he goes on to sort of talk about which is we we mention pretty regularly as well and bears repeating which is it's not a tragedy if you enjoy the process yeah exactly and and that's like i love this i love thinking about business i love analyzing business look if the market does nine percent and i get eight percent per year i've still done i've still done incredibly well right and now if that was a if that was an arduous, you know, painful, difficult, boring process, then yes, you have wasted your life.

34:21But if that is something that has just sort of ignited a passion in you, and I don't know, there'll be people listening to this going, get a life, get a hobby. Like there are better things in the world than mucking around with spreadsheets and thinking about business models. But if you do like to nerd out on that kind of stuff, it's not a waste at all. And the other part of that is that, you know perhaps not surprisingly when you do enjoy it it's not work and you will do it more and by doing more you will get better at it by getting better it'll be more worthwhile doing it it feeds on itself you will not find a very successful investor who has been that way in spite of their hatred of the game that's right they they they love the game right and they would play and then you look at some of them oh you know i'll try and not to mention uncle uncle uh uh buffett because because he's the obvious example but yeah you know like these so many of these people could have stopped decades ago that's right and lived a life like midas right and they're still investing they're still spending like it's not for the money it's not for the money and and and i'm not saying you should be like that but i'm just saying if recognize what it is that you like and don't like and and it's a big part for me if you find this difficult boring difficult called etc get the etf why put yourself through all it's just unnecessary life is short if it's stressful it's taking too much time you want to do with your time if you're not if you're not good at it if you're not enjoying it then do it yeah and even if you are good at it but you hate it yeah that's right yeah life is still too short right mate i can clean the toilet with the best of them right sparkling clean when i'm finished with it but i prefer not to right so unfortunately I don't have a choice because we don't have a maid.

36:06But, you know, I think the point's made. But hopefully that helps. Let that be part of the decision process. You know, Andrew Citi doesn't have a maid in, so he doesn't have a team that works for straw man that he makes go and clean the toilet for him. Do you notice that? I notice that too, listeners. I do have kids. So that's, you know, slave labor. Oh, even then. Do you trust them to clean the toilet? No, but they can do it anyway. Sometimes you let the kids do something and you've got to spend more time cleaning up what they did rather than actually them do it themselves. I tell them and they hate it.

36:34I say, it's character building. Build your character, Dad. Love it. You'll thank me one day. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.

36:53Here's a question from someone who I won't name who doesn't ask to remain anonymous, but it's a decent amount of money involved here, so I'm going to keep it anonymous. A bit of a first world problem, but a real problem. And I think you will like this, Ram, because it highlights the... We talked about financial advice, and I think it's the one coming up on Sunday. We're recording a bit out of sequence this week. John starts with... Good morning, lads. I appreciate the dedication you both put in educating the wider community in financial literacy. It's much appreciated. What would you consider a fair price for financial advice?

37:24In my case, after starting three different businesses, my wife and I were able to retire at the age of 60 with approximately$12 million invested, which is pretty good. Well done. We appreciate how blessed we have been throughout our lives. To be born in Australia with a functioning body and mind is such a privilege. And I appreciate that too, because I think it's an important reminder. Our money is 60 % invested in a beta shares ASX 200 ETF and 40 % in a beta shares global ETF. The current price of the advice is 0.33%, which sounds to be good value. However, at that rate, we pay$39 ,000 per year.

38:03If the market grows an average of 8 % to 10 % over the next decade, we will be paying approximately half a million dollars over the next 10 years. Makes you want to be John's financial advisor, doesn't it? There seems to be quite a lot, he says. How do other advisors charge for their services. I would think a percentage-based fee up to a maximum capped fee would be reasonable. What are your thoughts? Thanks, John. I mean, on one hand, no one's crying for John, right? He's got$12 million. If he pays half a million dollars over 10 years, you know, you can afford it. On the other hand, if you're John's financial advisor and you're picking up$40 ,000 a year to put him into two low-cost ETFs, by the way, I checked the ETFs.

38:43One of them has a cost ratio, management expense ratio, 0.04%. The other one, 0.08%. And by the way, that's inside the ETF. So John's numbers almost certainly don't include those numbers. So John's paying that to the ETF provider. It's already in his returns. He's not handing out cash, but it's reducing his returns by that amount, which is tiny. And then 0.33 % of his financial advisor, who thus far has put him in two index ETFs. He's having a laugh. That is totally outrageous. Isn't it? Look, I said, look, again, we're out of sequence. Whether I have said it or will say it. If you haven't, well, you've said it before and you will say it again regardless of the sequence.

39:23And it's not to have a go at financial planners. As I said, there are some financial planners that are worth their weight in gold, right? They are absolute rainmakers and they are worth every single cent because the advice they give you will save you from yourself or make you a fortune and like what? That is money well spent. however you know 60 local 40 offshore all in an etf is that worth something and that's not that's not terrible by the way that's great advice so i'm not saying he's or she's giving you bad advice it's great advice yes yeah yeah is it worth that much and by the way now that you've received the advice and paid some fees on that already a decent fee do do you need to keep paying it for the same advice i would say i would say no now normally things are more complicated when you've got smaller amounts of money if you quote unquote only had a million dollars it's hard to say that with a straight face but again partly it comes from our age like when i was a kid a million dollars right a lot of you win a million dollars in a lot of your millionaire you could buy anything you want you're set right now you know maybe a car space in gleam you know it's it's so but but But when you're – I shouldn't put a figure out there, but when it's at lower amounts, you've really got to manage that money prudently to make sure you don't run out.

40:47How much do I need to draw down? How much volatility can I withstand? What's the mix of income? It's a harder calculus. When you've got$12 million, you can weather a 50 % drawdown on the market. I'm not saying you're going to enjoy that, but when these are just nominal paper loss drawdowns that you experience in things like the GFC and the tech bubble burst and all of that. There'll be another one. There'll 100 % be another 50 % drawdown. In fact, there'll be a dozen of them over the next century. But, you know, that's what markets do, and then they tend to recover as well. So when you're in that kind of scenario, let's say it goes, you say, well, screw that, I don't need any advice.

41:29I'm leaving it there, and the next year you wake up and it's actually$6 million. Now, remember, the underlying value probably hasn't changed that much. The notional share prices have, and that's what's affected the change. Okay, it sucks. I'm now drawing down money on$6 million. But again, I'm assuming what you're talking about here is outside of your house, which you probably own outright. So you don't need a lot to sort of sustain your living. You'll draw down what you need to draw down. The rest will be there to recover. And it's just rather academic at that kind of point. So what I'm trying to say here is you don't need to be too clever with the planning.

42:04When you've got that much capital, whack it all in equities, roll with the punches. Some years will be awful. Some years will be fantastic. But on average, it'll be really, really, really decent. And you don't need to pay someone tens of thousands of dollars a year for that. I don't think. Maybe there's something else outside of that advice which you find worthwhile. But to me, I would look at that and go, no, no way. Give it to charity, you know. Yeah. Right. So one of the reasons I asked this question or I read this question out, mate, it's a reasonable question from John and I'm not going to blame him for having 12 million bucks.

42:35He's obviously worked hard and done well in life, right? So he deserves it if he's done it ethically and legally, and I'm sure he has. Sure. You know, a nice problem to have, but still a problem. Why I want to raise the question, mate, is when you say these large amounts of money, it does show you how egregious the fees are. Because you start to think about, hang on, as it grows. So firstly, it's already stupid at 40 grand a year. As it grows, he's going to be paying even more per year. and you ask yourself how much genuine value does that person add just because John's got more money than you've got or I've got, Andrew?

43:10And that answer is John's getting tagged because he happens to be richer than me. Not because the financial advisor is doing anything different. I'm getting the same advice. He's getting the same advice. He's going to pay more just so you have to have more money. I mean, imagine you go to the doctor and the doctor said, well, look, I'll fix your broken leg. But I realize, Andrew Forrest, you're a billionaire. so I'm going to do it for a billion dollars. But you'll do it for that. And we should subsidize stuff that people need to be subsidized for. I can be wrong. But it just shows you how big this is.

43:37It's an atrocious amount of money to be charged and the industry really should look itself very closely and ask why the hell it's doing that. Well, it knows. They're doing it for the same reason that agents work on commission. They realize you can, right? Is it any harder to sell a$10 million mansion in Mossman than it is to sell a one-bedroom unit? I'm sure there'll be some people who are actually. And maybe slightly, right? Maybe slightly. Maybe you've got to have a nicer suit and, you know, you've got to present yourself a certain way, but the difference is not the commission you're getting as a result.

44:07Your costs aren't that different in either scenario, right? And I think people do it. It's the issue of percentages. Oh, it's only 1%. It doesn't sound like much, right? So, two things. It's egregious and extraordinary and ridiculous. It would be anyway, but particularly because your investments are index ETFs. If you know you're not going to change that over your life from now, you're done. Paying this year might have been worthwhile to get the strategy right. 40 grand, probably not. I say he might be a lady. 40 grand is stupidly too much no matter what. They haven't put 40 grand's worth of work into it, right?

44:42No one gets that hourly fee unless you're a financial advisor or a real estate agent, right? It's just dumb. Again, I would do it if I get away with that. I wouldn't probably. Oh, maybe I would. If I get that much money, I probably would take it. I don't know. I like to think I wouldn't put it that way. I love the honesty. Well, you know, some people all get a price, as Kerry Packer once famously said. I'm not sure. There's an episode in Futurama where they come into some money. It's like, all of a sudden, they've got an opinion on the capital gains tax. It's all about your own circumstance. It's all about the Benjamins.

45:11Absolutely. So, it's stupidly egregious. I will give you one but, John. And the but I will give you is simply that Ram said if the price, you know, if the share market fell in half and the value was the same, but the market carried away, you know, it doesn't make any difference. you wouldn't change the strategy. That's true. But here's the really big, and this is important, but for anybody listening. If John, you at that point would go, oh my God, this is terrible. I'm selling out and going to property. And you crystallize that massive loss because there's not someone there to say, whoa, mate, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on.

45:41Don't get carried away here. Don't be silly. You've lost a bit on paper, but remember what the strategy was. Remember why we did it. The strategy is still sound. Don't get carried away. Stay the course. Remember we said we're going to do that. Yeah. Okay. All right. Fair enough. I'll stay there. now if he saved you six million dollars then it's worth every cent of the 39 grand you paid right so i i will and i've got to be careful and i'm dragging you into this one mate um that we don't so we wouldn't need it so other people wouldn't or shouldn't either and you didn't mention that ram you said like unless maybe there's maybe he's giving you something that's worth paying for yeah and you know paying 40 grand is a lot until he saves you from losing 41 grand or more yeah in which case it's worth every cent of that money right so if you're someone who knows that you know that you know, not thinks, not hopes.

46:25Mike Tyson planned to get punched in the face stuff. I plan to win this boxing fight. Okay, well, I don't need a trainer then because I'm going to win this, right? Bang, you hit first round, you got to sit down in the corner and go, what do I do now? I really could have done with a trainer in my corner at that point. Then take the trainer, right? Take the financial advisor, pay them, hate it, but do it because it's worth it because they're going to keep you on the straight and narrow. But if you're not, if you're going to do it, if you know that you know that you know, you can get up at the end of round one and go, I got punched in the face, but I've been here before.

46:53I know what I'm doing. I can keep my cool. I can analyze the situation. I can stay in the fight. Then you don't need the trainer in the corner. So that's just one way to think about it. Is that good, Ram? More than one? Yeah, no. There is always the – we talk a bit about endurance over profit maximization. Yes. And you might choose – I'm not even suggesting you should or otherwise, but just something to think about. You might deliberately leave a million in cash. Yes. Knowing that that's going to handicap your long-term returns and to a reasonably significant degree. But it means that you've got that money there so you don't have to sell your shares in the event of a drawdown.

47:40In fact, maybe you can make yourself feel a bit better and buy some stuff when it's dipping. Or to simply know you've got extra years of living expenses so you can afford to ignore your portfolio entirely. Whatever happens. And by the way, the past is really no guarantee of the future. Although we base everything we say just on the historical example, it doesn't mean that there is a version of the future where we drop 90 % and then stay there for 20 years. Now, that's pretty much Mad Max kind of scenario, but it's possible. So again, you just, as you say rightly made, it's about knowing yourself, knowing what you are likely or otherwise to do and just accounting for that.

48:17And just there is oftentimes, most times, a good argument to be made for just structuring things in a way that's not so much for profit maximization, but for endurance, giving you the ability to stay the course and to protect you from yourself. And that's the sort of advice a financial advisor should give you in the first year of your plan, which is, let's chat about your risk tolerance, your objectives. Here's something you should do if you need to do it. This is what you should do. And then you set. And again, know yourself. If you need the coach, if you need the advisor, if you need that extra bit of advice, and I wouldn't need it, right?

48:49Not because we're geniuses, because we've done this for a while, we know what we're doing, and we can reasonably protect ourselves from that sort of stuff. Other people can't, not because they're worse than us and we're better than them, just because they've got different life skills, different experiences, different temperaments, have different experiences. By the time, you know, and I have retired with$12 million each. I mean, straw man would have to fall by 90 % value to have that sort of result. But let's presume it was possible that he may not be a billionaire on paper, at least at the moment.

49:14But we will have done it for 40 plus years. And so it doesn't mean we can't make mistakes, but we're pretty good with that. Other people aren't. Even if you've been a great businessman, John, you and your wife have done fantastically well, doesn't mean necessarily great with money and financial markets. You might have been a great mechanic. You might have been a great software designer. You might have been a great house builder. I don't know. Doesn't mean you're a great investor. And I'm not saying you think you are, but just be mindful that I'm not going to start building a car to save myself the mechanic fees.

49:41So, you know, know yourself and go from that perspective. And I'll stand up for the financial planners in the sense that, look, honestly, genuinely, there's some really good ones. There really are. And any of you who are listening, I'm sure you are, because you're listening, so you must be. Here's the irony of the situation. I bet you, if you're a financial planner and you turned around tomorrow and said, you know what, I'm not charging a commission, but it's$5 ,000 for me to give you some advice. One off, I'll give you some advice and I'll send you on your way. Or I'll charge half a percent and I'll just charge that forever.

50:16What do you prefer? I reckon 80 % of people would cake the latter. Yeah, totally. You know, and so that's the irony because you're like, well, you call us greedy scumbags, but the reality is when we offer the other way, no one takes it. And then they go, wait a second,$5 ,000, that's outrageous. So sometimes we've got to look in the mirror before we cast blame anywhere else. That's true. Mate, Ian sends us a short email. He said, hi, gents. Any chance you have transcripts of all your podcasts? I want to drop them all into a Gen AI tool to summarize the core lessons, delete the Bitcoin references, LOL, then build a money guide for my kids.

50:58Poor Scott and Ram's almanac, perhaps. Cheers, Ian. I can heartily support the deletion of the Bitcoin references. Good thing is the book will only be half as long as it would otherwise be, which is nice. No, I'm kidding. Take out the property rants. Imagine the chapters and the chapter lengths per topic. I don't think I want that to happen. I should say, by the way, it's a no way we don't have transcripts for the podcast, mate, unfortunately. I dare say you can probably just give AI the bloody homepage and it'll do transcripts and summarize it for you anyway. I did it just the other day. Did you really?

51:30Yeah, and not for hours, for another one. And what you will - I'm slightly offended. Just find a transcript. like a transcript generator doesn't have to be an ai thing you'll just you'll paste in a spotify link or a youtube link or wherever the thing is it'll do it for you you can export it into a text document then you can feed that to the llm and and it'll they are really good at that they're really good at summarizing they're they fall a bit short on some tasks but at this point in time it is brilliant it is brilliant for that um can i tell you what's scary around i actually you know this one, I've shared this with you already, but for our listeners, the reverse is also possible.

52:06One of the guys that we work with, Matt, who's an absolute gun bloke and he's our head of new member acquisition, took a couple of retirement articles we'd written and tasked Google's LLM with creating a podcast, a spoken podcast from that content, and he said it was scarily good. So, you might be listening to one of the last episodes of Scott and Andrew doing the Motley for Money podcast. At some point, I might get fired. Andrew might be put out the pasture and you might be hearing robots do it. But until then, you're stuck with us. So yeah, we don't have one in. I'm sorry. I do like the poor Scott and Rams almanac.

52:36That's got a bit of a ring to it. Of course, that comes off the back of poor Richard's almanac that was written by, oh, I've lost it now. Who was it? Ben Franklin. Charlie Munger's hero and of course then poor Charlie's almanac. Paying homage to that was written, was compiled as well. So it would be somewhat prestigious company we'd be keeping if there was a Scott and Rams almanac, mate, I would suggest. Yes, yes. Although it would just be very repetitive. of that's the beauty of summarizing right you take a little repetition that's what i'm saying about the individual lengths of the chapters be like oh that's you know or maybe a reference how many times this statement was made you know what a word can be fascinating how many times did you say it depends how many times did i say really really i'd be a very large number i think yeah it'd be a really really large number i should say and andrew will say how many times well it depends it depends um let's go another question made on property it's that sort of podcast now Now, it starts with, greetings, Scott and Andrew.

53:29You can use my name if you can pronounce it. So, I'm going to get you to pronounce it, Andrew. Okay. It's spelled A-N-D-R-Z-E-J. I pronounce this Andre some... Andrew is, I assume, the English-sized version of that, or vice versa. I don't know how to pronounce it. Do you? I'm just asking Chachi PT. do you pronounce oops doing it live we're doing it live it looks like you've it looks like you've made a typo you may and I did I did I typed it in wrong you may be trying to say Anje which is common in Poland Anje there you go all right Anje the J is pronounced like a Y Anje Anje There you go, Anye.

54:23Hopefully we got that right. He says, thank you for an excellent podcast. My wife and I have learned so much from listening to your show and are now preparing for a hopefully comfortable retirement. My question is, we bought a block of land in a small coastal town south of Perth. Sounds like a beautiful choice. And built a house on it 15 years ago. It is our principal place of residence. About 13 years ago, we decided to buy the block of land next door to us and amalgamated it into our block of land. And we then only have to pay one set of rates of utilities. That makes sense. Yes. And we're also looking at building a large shed, which did not eventuate.

54:55We're in a residential area, with the beach being some 300 metres away. You're living the dream. The land size is around 3 ,000 square metres, with the average block size in the town being between 600 and 1 ,100 square metres. And the values are rising. I know that it is said you cannot sell a piece of your house to raise cash, but if we subdivided the land and sold off a piece, would we need to pay capital gains tax on it? As this was part of our principal place of living. How is CGT calculated? Can we put any proceeds from the sale of my wife's super as she has just turned 60 or continue buying index ETFs as we have been doing and are very happy with?

55:31Or is there something else we should consider? Apart from the cash injection, the other reason is to downsize and make our property a bit more manageable as we get older. I know you can't give advice, but your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Full on and thanks. Now, I asked this question specifically, Ram, because I don't know the answer. and I asked it I raised it specifically because we talk a lot about financial advisors and this is absolutely one where you want to go and see an accountant and we've been asked the question I think it's in Sunday's pod coming up about you know what's a reasonable price to pay for financial advice or what time should you go and get financial advice uh on Jay this is one of those examples because you're talking about two properties being amalgamated different cost bases uh you bought them 13 years ago, 15 years ago.

56:16So you bought it during capital gains tax, so it will be applicable. I dare say it's some proportional amounts based on the land size or the land values. I don't know the rules as to how that needs to be calculated. Maybe you can do it on land value. Maybe it's improved land value. You can claim an exemption on your principal residence for six years. That may or may not apply to the bit of land you've bought and added to. This is not a question for a podcast, mate. And so I'm asking the question to specifically not answer it, but deliberately because this is where financial advice matters. I've said before about financial advice.

56:50Is it worth putting money into super? Very possibly. And if you did the right thing here, you just have a small fortune in terms of tax, right? The concessional contributions you can make on lump sums at a super are really, really attractive. Maybe you put in both supers. I would just split it somehow. You take advantage of double the amount of concessional contribution limits. So this is absolutely one of those ones. It shouldn't be necessary. The rules should be simpler and easier, but they're not. And I wouldn't even try to think about ideas for this one. There are some considerations, mate, but this is one that, this is where accountants earn their money.

57:21For all of the, the question for all from John, here's two indices, give me 40 grand. That is a boondoggle. This one is where you really want someone who knows their stuff to give you great advice because the ATO will come knocking and you want to make sure you've dotted your eyes and crossed your teeth. I was furiously Googling while you were speaking there. Right, right. And my 30 seconds of research, yeah, you have to pay capital gains tax. You have to pay on some. I'm just not sure what the capital of the base would be and how that would be capital. Yes, yes. You can deduct costs and all that kind of stuff.

57:51But here's what I would say. Don't not do it just because you might be liable to capital gains tax. That's also true. And I'm not saying don't do it either. What I'm saying is look at what is the return expectation that you have for the cost that you want to take. And you might find that the tax component very much justifies it or very much nullifies it. I don't know. You've got to do your sums on that. And like valuing a company, I'd put some conservative assumptions that are in there. And generally, I know I'm old-fashioned, but when it comes to property, I'd be trying to like judge my investment return more on the income that it could generate.

58:32But yeah, I don't –

58:36then once, yeah, yeah. The opportunity cost part of it is hard, right? So in theory, you take it all. I know someone, I'm just going to put this in for fun. You put it all into Bitcoin, the 10Xs. You lose it all. You know? And it's like, you don't care that you paid some capital gain tax on that at all. Or yeah, it goes to zero. And it's like, oh, I've made a terrible mistake. Or even just liquidating it for cashflow and retirement. I mean, even then you might have 10 exit, but it's there right now. It's giving you nothing other than a bit of an extra lawn mow. You get rid of it. And yeah, whether you net half a million, a million, or a million and a half after tax, it's kind of less relevant than the amount of income you're going to generate on a regular basis investing that well so you can enjoy your retirement years versus getting no income while you hold on to it to avoid paying tax.

59:24Yep. So yeah, more food for thought. And so where I was going before was you don't have to not sell it, but just build something on it and then rent it out. I don't know, maybe that makes sense. I'd have to do the maths on it. But I mean, optionality is a beautiful thing and there's a lot of options with all of that. And you just want one that's not going to cause you too much headaches and is going to give you the better return. Yeah. But just my point being, my original point being, I encounter it a lot where someone goes, I'm not doing that because I have to pay tax. And I was like, well, I'd hate paying tax too, but you might be shooting yourself in the foot.

1:00:01And I'm not saying that this person's saying that, but a lot do, and it can be self-defeating. I think that's right. I think also, and this is not something I suggest, along Ram's line, do what's best for your life, not best for your money. Money helps you enjoy life. It's not the point in itself. But there also might be a circumstance in which selling the entire property without subdividing it, depending on how the capital gains tax is applied, maybe relevant, maybe you get the whole property for that period of time. and so maybe you get both thoughts or maybe you like the house you're in, you don't care, you want to sell half and keep the house you're in because you love the house and pay a bit extra tax because of it, do that as well.

1:00:36But there's so many different permutations of this one. It is not one that you should be taking advice from a podcaster on as much as we'd love to help you. Again, I ask the question specifically because there are just times when this is really complex and I can pick stocks and I'll have to pay a financial advisor. If I had your situation on, Jade, the first thing I would do is knock on the door of my accountant or my financial advisor and say, dude, I got a problem. I need your advice. And it's going to cost me a couple of grand, but it's really worthwhile because the tax implications of getting this one wrong will be much, much, much, much, much larger than any cost you pay.

1:01:07Maybe your fluke can get it right, but the chance of getting this one perfectly right or having the best outcome versus a slightly better outcome for paying a bit of money for an accountant or for financial advice, I dare say much, much more significant. So sometimes just pay up and get the best advice because it's definitely worth it. Yep. Nice one. Mate, I reckon we are done. And I'd ask you normally whether you'd come back on Sunday. But the good thing is, I know you will, because we've already pre-recorded the podcast. I've already done it, yes. Hopefully, I'll be back next Friday, assuming that, as I used to say, the good Lord willing, the creeks don't rise.

1:01:39If I make it back from our camping trip in one piece and prepared to do a podcast, we will be back with you. Well, we'll be back with you on Sunday, and then a brand new episode we will record next week. We'll come out on Friday. Until then, thank you for spending a bit of time with us on a Friday. Enjoy your weekend. If you happen to be in the snow, keep your eye out for me and fall on. Cheers.

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