Mailbag: incl. Buy and Sell can’t be the only option? February 23, 2025

22 Feb 2025 · 1 h 23 min

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Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money - Mailbag Edition (February 23, 2025)

Episode Overview In this special mailbag edition of Motley Fool Money, hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page answer various listener questions that delve into investment strategies, market dynamics, and personal finance decisions. The conversation covers a range of topics including investment philosophy, asset management, and the implications of market trends.

Key Themes and Discussions

  • Investment Philosophy
  • Andrew discusses the concept that if you're not willing to buy a stock at its current price, you shouldn't hold it. This encourages a mindset of critical evaluation of investments rather than emotional attachment.
  • The hosts emphasize the importance of opportunity cost in investment decisions, suggesting that if an investment's potential return is too low compared to alternatives, it might be time to sell.
  • Market Conditions and Currency
  • A listener inquires about the future status of the US dollar as a reserve currency. Both hosts consider historical precedence and current geopolitical trends, concluding that the dollar's status could change but may not significantly impact most investors.
  • Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSF)
  • A listener expresses hesitation about establishing an SMSF despite feeling pressured to do so. The hosts advocate for a cautious approach, emphasizing that investors should only pursue this if they are ready to actively manage their investments.
  • Bank Hybrids & Regulatory Changes
  • Kyle raises concerns about regulatory decisions affecting bank hybrids, seen as a restriction on retail investors’ choices. The hosts discuss the balance between protecting investors and allowing them to make informed decisions.

Listener Questions

  1. Buy/Sell/Hold Dilemma:
  2. A listener questions the binary approach to buying and selling stocks. Andrew suggests assessing stocks in terms of current market value and intrinsic value to determine if holding is appropriate.
  1. US Dollar Reserve Status:
  2. A listener wonders about the potential decline of the US dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Scott and Andrew contend that while it could happen, it may not have immediate consequences for investors.
  1. Self-Managed Super Fund Considerations:
  2. Questions arise regarding whether to establish an SMSF. The hosts recommend careful consideration about the requirements and risks associated with managing one’s retirement fund.
  1. Investment Strategies with Cash and Hybrids:
  2. Kyle seeks advice on maintaining cash reserves while looking for investment opportunities. The hosts debate the merits of keeping cash versus going all-in on investments, highlighting the need for a balance based on market conditions.

Key Takeaways

  • Investment Mindset: Always evaluate the potential of investments critically and weigh them against other opportunities.
  • Historical Context: The status of currencies and market dynamics is subject to change, and investors should remain adaptable.
  • Caution with SMSF: Only pursue an SMSF if you are prepared for hands-on management and understand the implications.
  • Regulatory Awareness: Stay informed about changes in financial regulations that could impact investment opportunities, like bank hybrids.

Conclusion The hosts conclude the episode by emphasizing the importance of critical thinking in investment decisions and the need to adapt strategies based on changing market conditions. The conversation reflects the hosts' commitment to providing insightful and practical advice that empowers investors to make informed decisions.

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For more insights and to follow the ongoing discussions, subscribe to the Motley Fool Money newsletter at [fool.com.au/listener](https://fool.com.au/listener).

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Transcript

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0:06Welcome to Motley Fool Money, our very special Sunday morning mailbag edition or Wednesday afternoon And as Andrew likes to say, welcome to Sunday morning. I am Scott Philoves from The Motley Fool. He is Andrew Rampage, the man whose feats of endurance, strength and emotional intelligence are unheard of across the Western world and much of the Eastern world. Unbelievable, you could almost say. Unbelievable. I believe we can go with. Mr. Page, how are you? I'm very good, sir. How are things? Things are very, very good. It's Sunday morning. We're happy. It's, you know, we had half the weekend already.

0:44You're out of bed early, obviously, doing whatever it is you do. Before I do ask you what you've been up to, I'll start the question early from Burrow. He says, morning, podmasters. Even if Andrew's feats of physical endurance stretch the imagination, the longevity of these twice-weekly episodes is something to admire. There you go. Which I appreciate it. Thank you, Burrow. I'm a little bit disappointed, though, with him. He seems to believe that you are not capable of and have been participating in those feats of which you mentioned. I don't know. It seems unreasonable to me to just somehow believe that we're making stuff up.

1:24Well, it's a little bit like that. It's a little bit offensive, quite frankly. You should be offended. We're supposed to take offense these days. It's an industry in itself. I'm not just doing it for me, Scott. No, I know. My body is a temple, as you know. Clearly, yes. You know, the state of that temple is up for debate, but it is a temple. Exactly. But it's also there for inspiration, you know. I'm there to inspire other people to get up at 4 a.m. on a Sunday morning and climb Mount Kosciuszko, which is what I did this week, by the way. Did you? Yes, I did. Every day this week I thought was impressive.

1:56I thought, why not once or twice you might do it, but to do it seven straight days just to show that you could, I thought was impressive. Just to warm up for Everest. Exactly, that's next week. I'm glad you've been busy, mate. Me and the 12 Sherpas that will be needed to carry my ego. And you. Someone carry me up Everest. Have you seen those photos of people doing Everest these days? Yeah, it's crazy, right? Fair dinkum. It's like bloody Congolite. Anyway, have you done Kosciuszko, by the way? No, I haven't. Yes, I just did it seven days this week. But before then, had you done Kosciuszko? No, I hadn't.

2:29No. There you go. I've not done it either. I am overdue. It's not, well, it's miles from my place. I'm a little bit closer than Sydney to that. I've been banging on with my wife about doing it. We just never quite get around to it. You probably don't need an oxygen tank for Kosciuszko. That would help. Some shirt would be nice. Impressive nonetheless. I don't want to carry my own stuff. Now, just kind of just – so I have this thing. This is probably a bloke thing and a girl thing. I don't know. I want to go and see those kind of like the iconic – I want to climb Kosciuszko. I want to go to Cameron Corner.

2:58Cameron Corner is the corner of Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia, right, with the three states meet. And my wife is like, I'm not going there. It's just a corner. It's a made-up place. It doesn't even exist. It's just where imaginary lions go. I'm like, but it'd be cool. It's like, why would it be cool? Who wants to do that? So I don't know what it's about me or her or just kind of blokes or what. I don't know. But have you done the corners? Have you done any corners yet? No, but I've always fantasized about doing some like really annoying legal gimmick to like just to make some stupid point.

3:27Like something that's frowned upon in New South Wales and then just like step over there. What are you going to do? Oh, that's the photo, right? Yeah, you just got to step across all the two state lions. Look, I'm in both states at the same time. We are nothing if not immature, and we're lucky to have our wives. Yes, indeed. Let's do some questions. Let's get back to Burrow's question. He says, Andrew recently said, if you're not willing to buy a stock right now, you shouldn't be willing to hold. But this suggests every company is a buy or a sell at its current price. If I judge a company worth a dollar, but require a margin of safety of 20%, I'll wait until it falls to$0.80.

4:03If it then climbs to$0.90, cents, my margin of safety has reduced and I wouldn't necessarily buy more, but it's still less than my calculated intrinsic value and I wouldn't be selling either. Surely there's a price range where a stock is neither a buy or a sell, but is therefore a hold. Cheers, Burrow. Yeah, he's right. Dead right. Absolutely. So it's more a framework for trying to think about portfolio construction and portfolio management is really what it is because it tries to overcome this endowment effect. It's just sort of like we really, at least in theory, we're more critical in our analysis before the fact.

4:41After the fact, we need to preserve our ego and our genius. So, we will interpret new information in a very different kind of way. So, it's just a way of sort of saying, look, if you didn't own it, if you weren't weighed down with that baggage, you know, would you buy it today? And if you wouldn't buy it today, it doesn't say sell, but it sort of suggests that you might want to think about it. And it's also trying to sort of position that decision against other possible decisions as well as, you know, an opportunity cost. That's what it's going to come down to, yeah. You know, so you're right, Burroughs.

5:15I mean, you've got to be, it's true in investing, it's true in so much else in life as well. There are these wonderful little sayings that contain great wisdom but taken at literal face value are ridiculous. I mean, I think a lot about this with Buffett quotes. As you know, you said on Friday, we're contractually obliged to throw in a Buffett quote here or there. Correct. And we do. And that's a great example of what I'm talking about. One of his that always gets misinterpreted is... Rule number one. Rule, thank you. I thought it was where you were going. You and I were together way too long, dude.

5:55Finishing each other's seconds. I knew exactly where you were going. Like, rule number one, don't lose money. Rule number two, don't forget rule number one. And people go, yeah, but I bought it and it's gone down 2 % and you're breaking Buffett's rules. I'm like, oh. He's not talking about volatility. He's not talking about short-term profits or losses. He's just trying to say, you know, the main thing that you should be doing as an investor is avoiding permanent loss of capital. That's the risk here, right? And not that you're going to be successful in that endeavor, but that's the goal here, right?

6:25If you avoid the big blow-ups, the gains take care of themselves. There's a nuance. There's a context. Yeah. You know, but - It's a guiding principle, not a cast iron rule. And if he was to like lay it out in a formulaic way that would encapsulate all variations and possible misconceptions, it becomes an essay and then you lose the pithy saying. And it's like the saying distills a great deal of wisdom, but in and of itself, I mean, it's a shorthand way of sort of trying to encapsulate all of that thinking. Here I am trying to compare myself to Buffett in this, what I'm saying, if you shouldn't buy it, you shouldn't hold it kind of thing.

7:09But hopefully that sort of makes sense there. It's more of a guiding principle generalization. You were right. In fact, I'll go even further with that and say that you don't want to overthink these valuations, right? So I've said many times before, my biggest regrets are going, oh, I thought it was worth a dollar. I bought it at 80 cents. Look how clever I am. Now it's$1.20. It's overvalued. I'm selling. You know, and you just lose the long-term compounding because you're overthinking these valuations, which we said on Friday, are all at best, a best guess anyway. So you definitely don't want to overthink it too much.

7:42And they feel like diametrically opposed kind of things, but I don't think they are. Maybe I'll throw the ball to you and you can do a better job of it. No, you're doing a great job. I agree with you almost entirely. You mentioned opportunity cost. That's the important one for me here, Burrow, is just the gap between if you're already since gone to 90 and you can't be that precise with the valuation, you get really close to I'm not sure how right I am. And at that point, I would be actually honestly saying, well, is there a better idea I've got? In other words, is it the buyer or sell? No. but should you hold it if there's other ideas you've got that are 80 cent dollars again think about tax and all sorts of stuff but broadly speaking the closer you get to your fair estimate of value the more you should be looking for alternatives rather than trying you know if let's play it out right so it gets to 94 cents 97 cents 98 cents still under your valuation so still worth holding in theory but if the upside is only two percent at that point you kind of go actually maybe i should look for other 80 cent dollars and this is the other thing i will say quickly, Boro, and I know you don't mean this necessarily, absolutely.

8:45I'm not a capital V value investor, right? So I'm not looking for$0.80 that I'm waiting for$0.80 to the dollar, then sell and try and find another$0.80. I mean, you can do it, but that requires a lot of action, right? You'll be right about the$0.80, you'll be right about the dollar, you'll sell it at the right point, then find another$0.80 and then repeat and repeat and repeat and repeat. My investing is far more, and you've made this point very kindly before, Ram, it is by two-hold investing, which is I kind of hope that my$0.80 become$0.90$0.10s and then$1.20s in the sense that I hope the value of the business keeps increasing.

9:18So it's kind of, yes, I'm looking for undervalued businesses. By definition, I'm looking for things the market's got wrong, but I'm hoping the market's wrong about it for a long time to come. So for me, if the business continues to improve, then great. Right. If your marginal safety is narrowing, you've already got one eye on the exit. And I've got to say, at some point, you know, if I'm buying 80, will I sell at 90? Maybe not. But at some point, I'm kind of like, the door's closing. If the best I can hope for is a 25 % gain, which is 80 to a dollar, that's great, by the way. But if that's as much as I can get in total, not even compound, but, you know, that's my absolute ceiling, I'm still kind of like, I don't know.

9:58And again, speaking of Buffett, Buffett talks about the 80-cent dollars, but his holdings, he's held Coke for, jeez, 40 years, probably, something like that. I mean, he's not just looking to sell it, you know, buy it, sell it a buck. He's hoping that that dollar continues to get larger and larger and larger over time, and he can hold for as long as that dollar is growing fast enough. And so there's kind of that as well. Yeah, so look, you're absolutely right, Burrow, in the example you've given, spot on, I completely agree, and as is Ram. That being said, the closer you get to the buck, the more you should be looking at the exit and finding something better to go with.

10:29this probably won't work in audio format, but... Oh, good. Let's try it. If you could try it anyway. Let me draw your picture. I'm holding a graph up to the microphone right now. It's worse than that. I'm going to try to talk about discounted cash flows, right? Oh, yes. So, look, Google it, mate, as Adam Bantz said. But there's... Just to distill the so what of that approach, It means that if you've got something at fair value, however you derive that and calculate that and estimate that, you will get your discount rate. I probably need to unpack that even more. So basically, you've come up with a value by looking at all future cash flows and then discounting it back by a certain rate.

11:16And let's say it's 10 % for the sake of argument. So you've said a dollar next year is really worth a dollar divided by 1.1, 90 cents or something like that, right? Because if I buy it at 90 cents and it's worth a dollar, I get a 10 % return. Does that make sense? Yes, totally. Okay. And if I'm adding it all up and really what the maths is saying to you there, and again, you've always, maths is super powerful. It is the language of the universe, as the physicists like to say, but you do need to bring it back to a conceptual understanding here beyond just the pure numbers. And what it's saying to you in plain English is that fair value just means if I buy it at fair value or it's arrived at fair value, I will get the discount rate.

11:55And if I've said the discount rate at 10%, I will get 10%. And that's a pretty good reason. I've actually said by my definition and my reasoning, it's about fair. It's a good price because I'll get 10%. Now, if it's below fair value slash intrinsic value slash true value, whatever synonym you want to use, even better, even better. And that's why we like to go below our estimate of intrinsic value. Because one, it's better. But two, it allows for that margin of safety. It's the uncertainty. It's like, well, I don't know. It's just a guess. Like my guess on future cash flows could be wrong. And there's a whole bunch of stuff that can be wrong.

12:34So I buy it. If I think it's worth a dollar, I buy it 80 cents. It just tries to cover up for my inevitable shortcomings. And not just me, anyone's. So it's just, to your point, when the closer it gets to fair, it doesn't mean that you get rid of it at fair value or you get rid of it even a little bit above fair value. but it just becomes definition or you know almost axiomatically it becomes less and less attractive the further it goes above now there's no line that you cross at which point it's perfectly sensible in which case it then it's you know pure madness but in the universe of all possibilities that are out there there'll be something else it's like well this is just as good on a risk return kind of basis in fact and it's a much you know so the business is just as good the opportunity is just a good and it's at better value it's like well okay i know this tax and this transaction cost but you know all those things being equal it's just sort of like you are by your own reasoning choosing to take a lower return with equivalent risk by staying in it now again you don't want to be too clever and cute and switch in and out all that all the time you really you know speaking of quotes that contain a lot of wisdom you know munger's you know the first rule of compounding don't interrupt it do not interrupt it right um but but these are all just sort of frameworks to sort of think within and trying to try and keep things within a um a mental framework that is like is logically consistent and rational and makes kind of sense and then you use it as a as a as a guidepost there's no there's no perfect answer with any of this stuff yep i like that a lot um yes we're done hey um question from matt hello a long time listener, first-time questioner.

14:11I'm a big fan of the pod machine, says Matt. And, of course, I'm a big fan of people who are big fans of the thing called the pod machine. I always appreciate your wisdom and long rants. But I have a concern about Rampage. In an episode released on 20th of December, he referred to Drake as that dude in the puffer jacket, end quote, in a meme. Careful, Andrew. You might end up in a rap beef with disrespectful talk like that. Drake may be coming for you, Ram, I think is what Matt's saying. Is that Drake? I had no idea. I just thought it was a random internet picture. I don't even know. I've heard the word Drake.

14:43When I think Drake, I think Ducks and Drakes, and that's as much as I can tell about Drake. So I'm even less connected than you, mate. But if that is Drake, then it is what it is, I suppose. Very quick segue. My boy, who's sort of 15, 16 this year, he's just coming to that age, massively into Travis Scott. I don't know who that is. I almost said, I started saying, do you know who that is? If you would have said Travis Scott, I would have said NASCAR driver or country music singer. How am I going? No, not even close. He's a rapper. Oh, there you go. And hey, I've got plenty of time for rap. I've got plenty of old school rap, you know.

15:20You name it, right? LL Cool J. I don't know. I'm doing the real old school. I love it, right? I love all that kind of stuff. LL Cool J. I remember my dad hating it whenever we had to listen to it. And now I'm in the car now going, oh. Everything's synthesized and modulated. and like this drum beat is like played on a computer and even it can't keep it. I'm just like ranting and raving. I was like, I'm such an old person. I'm such an old person. So anyway, I learned something today. That's the Drake is the meme. Cool. There you go. What else did I say? As far as I know, that's all he's concerned about.

15:55Just you made it up in a rap beef and I believe that's a bad thing. I think 50 Cent got shot up at us in time. I'll throw it down. Let's have a rap battle. There you go. That's our first episode right there. Andrew rapping is... I would terribly lose, obviously. And I would embarrass myself, but I would still consider it a massive win, right? Like what? Some random niche podcast dude on the other side of the world challenged Drake to a rap battle and he accepted? Like I'd be dining out on that for the rest of my life. It's like getting flogged by Roger Federer in straight sets playing tennis. Like I should play Roger Federer.

16:32I trash-talked Federer and he challenged me and he beat me, but he challenged me. It happened. He called me out. He called me out. All right. Matt says, my question is around the US reserve currency. It's easy to think what it is now will always be. But history suggests the US dollar will lose its reserve currency status sooner or later. Do you think about long-term national cycles at all? Does the reserve currency matter less now than in the past? Matt gives us either a forecast or a warning. I feel Andrew may go on a Bitcoin rant, but can it practically serve as the reserve currency over the long term?

17:06Why on earth would a leading country want it as a reserve currency over their own national currency which they can manipulate? Many thanks, Matt. Oh, Matt, dude. That is such a big – I don't even know where to start. I'm going to have to start a podcast timer, I think, with some of those questions. Press the button and tick, tick, tick, tick, tick. It's too giant. It's like saying, hey, guys, what's the meaning of life? Like it's almost of that kind of – Let me recast Matt's question. It's a great question. By the way, it's fantastic. I mean, why don't more people talk about this? Like, I think it's a big deal, but it's a big one.

17:40So I'm going to – well, let me start with the reverse there. I don't think it is a big deal, at least from my perspective as an Australian investor. Okay. I mean, the national – the reserve currency will be the result of, rather than the cause of any implications for me as an investor, I presume. And if you've got a different review, throw it at me. I suspect if you have to lose this reserve currency status, that's because other things have happened. And the things that happened are probably far more relevant and impactful to me than the fact that it loses its reserve currency status. You know, whether oil is priced in Saudi rials or Bitcoin or US dollars, it's kind of not particularly relevant as an Australian investor investing in businesses that may or may not buy oil and Australian dollars and having to convert them to whatever the reserve currency happens to be.

18:24The Woolies, I don't know Woolies shares, but just for the fun of it, is not going to be impacted. the ASX is probably going to be impacted. If the US loses reserve currency because Donald Trump blows the place up and the access of power changes and China has a very different trade policy to the US currently, that's a big deal. The fact that reserve currency moves from US dollars to anything else is kind of irrelevant. I don't mean to sound flippant or dismissive. No, you're right. For me, it's a non-ish. So you said why more people ask it? My answer is because I don't care. And again, I mean that thoughtfully rather than flippantly.

18:57it's of no import to me. Far more interesting would be if the US was unseated as the world's economic power. Yes. What would that mean? Or who might do that for? That means plot for you. Right, exactly, exactly. Anyway, that's my two cents. You take off from there, mate. Yeah, yeah, I think you're right. I mean, so it's the US, but, you know, prior to – that only started in about 1920-ish, somewhere around then. Then it was the pound sterling. Right. You know, and then it was the Dutch Gilda, and then it was the Spanish Real. I looked it up. This isn't going from memory. It's the Portuguese cruzado.

19:33Actually, in the 8th to 13th century, it was during the Islamic golden age, it was the Abbasid Dinah. There you go. And, you know, so it definitely changes. And really, again, you've got to come back to this fundamental idea that money is just a technology and it's just a tool. And what tool do you use? It's a representation, right? Yeah, exactly. You use the best tool that you've got. So there's no reason why you can't go into the international market and start mucking around with the Egyptian pound. It's going to be hard, though, to get the Spanish to accept that, or to go over to Russia or the Middle East and try buying barrels of oil.

20:08Yeah, you can exchange it. One of the key attributes of money that you want is acceptability, right? And that's really what defines the reserve currency. It's just more accepted and it's got the liquidity and breadth to sort of be able to serve as that kind of role. So it kind of matters. It matters a lot to the US because it gives them incredible advantage. I mean, really, I've heard some thinkers describe the US economy as one which exports dollars and imports stuff. Yeah, that's not far off. Yeah, it's not far off. It's really not. I mean, again, it's a deep statement, but it's really not far off.

20:43And think about it. They've run a deficit since forever. Yeah, that's right. They've got$37 trillion in debt. Like, how do you do that? You do that because there's always someone willing to buy your paper. Correct. And they need to buy your paper because it's called Triffin's Dilemma. The economists have got a name for it. Like, I want to participate in the global economy. I need US dollars. So I guess I'll buy US dollars. There's an artificial demand. Careful with my words here, but there's a demand for US dollars that goes beyond - A created demand, yeah. It's not because I want to go to the US and transact in the US economy.

21:20And I want to participate with South Africa. I want to buy oil. Yeah, or whatever. And it's like, I need a currency that is globally accepted. That's the US dollar. So for the US, it's an incredible source of privilege and power. It has downsides, i.e. the hollowing out of their manufacturing sector and other things. They're producing less and less. They simply don't even get the benefit of a floating exchange rate. I mean, when the Australian economy is bad, the Greek economy was the same, right? The Greek economy suffers. I mean, they didn't because they had the euro, but the idea would have otherwise been, and Australia has this opportunity, when our economy stinks, the dollar falls, which makes imports more expensive, that kind of sucks, but it makes our exports cheaper, which is great.

21:58So the seeds of the recovery are sown by that floating exchange. That's why floating exchange makes sense, right? It's perfect. You know me, free market pricing of money is the way to go. Let's not get started on the reserve. Let's not, let's not. But that's exactly the point. That is exactly the point, right? But your broader point is actually the more fundamental one in the sense that if the US, or maybe you could even say when, and that's not to be doing very sure, just like, I don't know, within the next thousand years, probably a safe bet to sort of say. Probabilistically, yeah. But, you know, it's going to lose its status.

22:30And why would it lose its status? Well, because it's not the superpower anymore. Yeah. You know, so - For any number of reasons and ways. Oh, let's look at BRICS. Brazil, Russia, India, China, they are all selling down the US treasure or they're letting them roll off. They're not buying any more of them, particularly after they sanctioned Russia, right, after Ukraine. Because all that did is where Biden really unintentionally shot the US in the foot. They weaponized the dollar, which undermines the reserve status because I know they're not on friendly terms with some of these countries. But it's just sort of like everyone else has gone, well, I'm not going to hold your tokens.

23:06Why am I, you're just going to rug pull me. I was like, I've done all this trade. I've done all this economic activity. I've got my shekels. And now you're confiscating, you know, you're not letting me use them. I am not using, just think you've gone into Westfield. You've bought a bunch of Westfield gift cards, right? And then you go into another Westfield and they say, your gift cards aren't good here anymore. Oh, well, what? But that's all my money. It's all my money. Like, I'm sorry. So what do you do in a geopolitical arena, one that's a little tense, one where other players are challenging the dominant superpower?

23:43You go, I ain't holding your money, right? Like, why would you? It is a perfectly rational thing to do. So, you know, Xi Jinping and Putin have been openly discussing this. You know, like, we should have our own currency. In fact, Russia is increasingly settling stuff in yuan and the rest of it. Of course they are. Of course they are. So it'll change. And the more fundamental – so you're right and you're wrong. You're right in the sense that, well, what does it matter to me? It only matters to me when I want to buy something that's not in Australia. Because the way to think about currencies – But even then, buying something not in Australia, I don't really care.

24:15You price oil in yuan tomorrow. Yeah, I'll get yuan. And the basket of exchange rates don't change anything. So my dollar buys so many yuan and so many US dollars, and I could buy yuan and then buy US dollars with that, and then buy the oil. I could buy US dollars, then yuan, then buy the oil. I could buy them directly in that foreign currency. as long as the product, as long as the exchange rates are relative in the basket. They call it the cross rates, right? So Australia versus the US dollar, US versus yuan, yuan versus pound, pound versus Australian dollar. The market finds equilibrium. So it is.

24:44So it doesn't really matter in the short term or even the medium term. What denominator you put the oil in, for example, I'm going to buy it. It's going to cost me this many Australian dollars. It doesn't matter what I turn it into. If$100 buys me a barrel of oil, I might have to do it in any one of a dozen currencies to get there, but I still buy the same thing. Yeah. And the other thing with money, which is interesting, is it just tends to one because it's just too hard to work. By the way, go back to the US Civil War era. There was all kinds of private banking. There were different states that had their own different currencies.

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25:16Monetary history is fascinating. We've been messing around and experimenting with this technology for thousands of years, and we've tried it all before, right? And again, we look at the world as it is and assume it's always been that way and will always be this way. We can't imagine it changing. Exactly, yeah. This is really, as I say, it's only 100 years, which is a blink of the eye. Like you go back to when your grandparents were born and this is what the age that we're doing. I'm not talking about someone wearing a grass skirt four billion years ago. Like this is, you know? And so it's, what am I trying to say here?

25:51It is kind of important. When the US loses its reserve status, it's actually signals something far more deep and fundamental that has gone on. And all I really want to do, whatever token I'm holding, whether it's a Westfield gift card, a magic internet money token, or a fiat currency from another sovereign nation, I just want to make sure that you don't stuff around with it too much because I've stored my value in it. You go and print 40 % of all money in existence in the last few years, which has happened. That's a fact, by the way. Let's not touch that, but that's a fact. You know, it kind of like, if you're not outraged by that, buy some shares in my company and then you do that.

26:31I'm going to double the number of shares on issue and not give you any, right? And see how upset you are then, right? And it's sort of, so you want, what you want is something that you know will be accepted, no one's going to screw with. And at the moment, it's just the best horse in the glue factory, the US. and I suspect that something that's a non-sovereign, non-screwable form of money will have great appeal in the future. What could that be? I don't know. But there you go.

27:03I, yes. So I will say on your behalf, Matt's question of why would a leading country want it as a reserve currency that is Bitcoin have their own national currency, they probably won't. But if it becomes internationally accepted, than it is, right? No one chooses not to be the reserve currency anymore by definition. The British didn't choose to cede reserve currency to the US. It happened because the weight of demand and activity went that way. After the war, it was just, you know, the economy was in shambles. It just felt like we need US resources. We need US. It was the better money. Obviously, it went there.

27:40Yeah. All right, let's move on before we get back down that road. What a great question. My favourite topic at the moment, obviously. Hey, Tim's got a question. It starts by saying, good to you, Tim. You may use my name. Thank you, Tim. We will and did. Hello to the gods of the pod machine. I bow down and kiss the ring in the hope of your thoughts on what a person should generally be thinking about. Definitely not giving any. I'll allow it. I'll allow it. What a person should be thinking about. Definitely not giving any specific advice. If they were something like a vaguely similar and fortunate situation in which I find myself, I think.

28:12I am rich, if not totally in monetary terms, says Tim. I live in Melbourne in a house I have mostly owned with my wonderful wife for nearly two decades. I am, let's say, mid to late 40s, although friends seem to argue one or the other based on whether they are 50 or not. So you have nothing to be jealous about. Good. We have around a half million dollar mortgage, but that will be paid off by the time I sell my soul to the corporate gods for the next 15 years or so, barring any political black swan shocks, because they never happen, right? I earn a good wage and we have a great standard of living.

28:42I am blessed. Stop there, mate. That is an excellent... Excellent question, excellent point, very well made. Yeah, and important, right? Monetary is important, but life is more. We have around 600 grand in super between us, but a significant portion is in my account. Due to my wonderful wife spending significant amounts of time investing in our two now teenage wonderful humans. Talking in general terms, any given day is sometimes different, but those questions I will send to the other pod machine gods. As if there are any others. You shall have no other gods but us, Tim. Have you not read your podcast Bible?

29:15To date, all savings have been paid into Australian super for tax benefits or reducing the mortgage, bar around 1%, which I have had in Bitcoin recently. That 1 % was previous in Sigma, but that is a whole other hour of discussion you've basically already covered. Let's say my timing was terrible and, oh, well, lessons learned. At least Bitcoin has worked out for me in the last 18 months, and I am clear on my 1 % thesis there. For decades, the T-Bow super has been in Australian super's high-growth fund. It's averaged a respectable 9 point something percent return with a low management fee. Doesn't set the world on fire, but not bad.

29:50And good for letting compounding do its thing. Absolutely. You've outpaced inflation. Here comes the question. We have enough in our super to start considering a self-managed super fund. But I confess, I am scared. I screw this up and we lose our retirement. I've been listening to your pod for a few years now and trying to work my way towards how to hopefully create some better returns. So this January, I took my first step. I took 50 % of my super, put it into Australian Super Members Direct, which means I can invest directly into ASX top 300 shares and ETFs for almost no management fee. A few hundred bucks a year, he says.

30:24I used to do that to a very recently. Nice. The rest remains in Australian super's high growth. I took the money and put half in a Vanguard all ASX ETF and half in a Vanguard all USA ETF. That's pretty much what I did. Yep. Yeah. Both have much lower fees than the already low Australian super management fee. My theory is, as a first step towards an SMSF, I should see my ETFs grow faster than the managed fund due to lower fees and a 100 % share exposure compared to the high growth option, which is only around 83 % shares. I like this approach. Then as I see that working, I can slowly take some cautionary steps, maybe firstly picking a few stocks and ultimately shifting to an SMSF with initially a high ETF percentage, then over time towards a diversified portfolio of individual stocks as I become more confident and of course, generally informed listening to your wonderful no advice given rants and thoughts podcast.

31:13What do you think? Am I locking in downsides without being aware? I know I'm being cautious, but it's my retirement. I don't want to mess that up. Equally, I enjoy spending time thinking about owning shares in companies and you have enriched me there at no end. I'm okay to ride the downturns and trying to build conviction in some companies. General advice only, please. Cheers, Tim. What do you reckon, mate? I don't have many notes there. I mean, as I said, pretty much what I was doing, right? Like, not that that means it must be right, but I mean, it does say that I've got little criticism of it.

31:48I think we were speaking off air. I think if you don't have any doubt, then there's something wrong. Like, that is such a dangerous position for any investor to be in. And you generally, the longer, whenever you've had a good period, If you had a bit of a purple patch, it's really a dangerous time in a lot of ways, right? Because you start to underappreciate the risks. And I just, anyway, I think it's, I think Tim, having that little bit of fear and concern is actually a really good thing. Like it keeps you on the straight and narrow. Yeah. It really does.

32:26Self-managed super funds. I mean, I did it because I just, Australian super didn't let me buy any of that. The orange coin. I didn't want to say the B word. Screw you guys. So that's why I did it, right? Yeah. If it wasn't for that, I probably would have kept it there just for ease. Just because like, you know, I've just gone through the audit. Oh, my God. Right? The accountant's like, where's your Bitcoin account? It's like, no, it doesn't work like that. It was like, here's an address. What? And I was like, oh, my God. We went round and round and round. And it ended up being like, imagine I've got a lump of gold and it's in my safe.

33:06No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. By the way, it's all legal and proper, but it's just sort of like it's so – anyway, it's outside of the normal scheme of things. But, yeah, it is expensive to set up. It's expensive to administer. I think with 600K, you're at a threshold where, you know, as long as you're getting sort of market average type returns, you'll justify that. but don't do it if you're, I mean, what you've got with Australian super now, if you're going to take that, put in your SMSF and then basically just run it under some big ETFs, it's kind of like, well, you're going to get the same performance and now you've just got all that extra hassle and cost.

33:47So don't do it. If you want to be more hands-on and you expect to be more hands-on in the future and you want to sort of go beyond, the other thing that I really didn't like about Australian super, but not picking on them in particular, but it was the only the top 300. And as you know, I love my small caps. Yes, yeah, yeah. And they wouldn't let me buy all these great companies that I just thought were wonderful. And I just, I wasn't allowed to buy them because small equals risky for a lot of the financial orthodoxy, which I don't even want to go near because it's so dumb, but that's what they think.

34:22So when I'm rambling, let's tie a bow on it. if you want to to do things that you can't do now then by all means do it and and and feel free to gradually leg into it as you build up experience and confidence you don't have to dive into the deep end day one if you're going to just change it and keep it more or less the same thing then it's not worth it i know that yeah i don't know no i think that's right i so i've got smsf as well I have less reason to have one than you do, actually, because I don't have many small caps in my super and I have nothing outside ASX's and stuff. So I could actually do that.

34:59I actually even got to ETS. I could probably transfer my entire super fund to Australian Super and do exactly what I'm doing now with them and save myself the hassle and the grief. And I probably should. I've thought about – so I went to SMSF because I wanted to have control of my investing and I'm old. So that happened kind of as the member direct stuff was just starting. Had I waited another three years, I'm not entirely sure I would have done the SMSF thing. It's a pain in the neck, as you've said, mate. Even though I've been trying to explain weird fake internet money to my accountant, I've been deliberately facetious.

35:33Oh, it was so hard. It was so hard. I don't blame her at all. It's just so unusual. But even without that, it's just annoying and it's a hassle and I don't want to do it and I don't need to do it and blah, blah, blah. So at some point, Vanguard Super has effectively a wrapper around your own investing. And I probably, I suspect, I'd be surprised if I retire with an SMSF, it'll be because I'm too lazy to change it. I suspect I'll go back to an industry fund or Vanguard Super at some point or something similar if it comes out. Because I don't need the flexibility that SMS gives. I have almost as much inside that.

36:10To your point about Tim's situation, again, Tim, as you say, we can't give you advice, but if you're going to have majority ETFs and the rest large caps, you're kind of there. In terms of the investing approach, I love the caution. I love the way you've paced out what you're going to do. So it's like let them do it, then I'll pick some ETFs, then I'll start picking some companies. It's perfect, mate. It's exactly right, you know. Particularly with large amounts of money. If you're 25 and starting, you can afford to start with companies and learn that way. And you've got a reasonable lump sum, as you say, mate.

36:37Here's the thing, the obligatory Buffett quote, you don't want to go back to square one. You know, never, ever risk going back to square one. And you can't. I mean, at a certain age, you couldn't do enough to make up what you would lose if you get this horribly wrong. Now, you're not going to get it horribly wrong because - Yeah, you've only got 10 to 15 years left as an earner. Don't mark it up. Hopefully. Hopefully. Yeah. Speaking of political black swans. So, Tim, you know, that sort of approach I think is perfectly fine. I would - I wouldn't - here's the other thing I would say. This is sacrilege coming from me, right?

37:08You don't need to improve your returns for the sake of it. You've got enough money. The returns between now and the end of your retirement or beginning of your retirement and then then the rest of your life, depending on your, if you paid off your house and you get reasonable compound returns of your 600 grand for the next couple of decades and then you retire and then, by the way, you're going to be adding money to that while you're working. So your boss is going to tip in, you know, up to 12 % of your pay for that next 15 year period. You're going to have more than enough. So I would say, don't feel like you need to pick stocks for the sake of it.

37:37I think you want to from the sound of it. So I'm not trying to discourage you from doing it. I don't have to quit Andrews. I've to quit our members and Andrews club members. Well, it's Best Online Private Investment Club. You know, do it if it makes you happy. Do it if you enjoy the process. Ram says it all the time. It's just fun. It's great. It's a challenge. It's interesting. And hopefully I can make some money doing it. If that's you, do it. I'm not for a second saying don't. I am saying don't feel like you have to. You're getting your 9 point something percent. You'll probably get your 9 point something percent from here to forever.

38:05There is no need to pick stocks. If you want to, great. And I think what you've done is beautiful because you've started with ETFs like well okay well I'll just start with a couple or actually I would start with more than a couple I'd start with a range but do it with x percent of your portfolio 1 percent 2 percent 5 percent whatever you whatever the right amount is for you and that way if you win you'll make a bit of extra money if you lose you go I didn't lose too much and now I know I'm going to stick with ETFs don't don't feel pressured you haven't you sounds like you're pretty cautious don't feel pressured to do it just because you need to maximize your returns right as we've said many many times maximizing your returns only matters if you actually get those returns rather than trying to maximise your returns, taking more risk, end up with 7 point something percent returns.

38:43Now, if you do, it's still fine. You'll do perfectly well getting 7 or 8 or 9%. It's not going to matter, right? And if you're not putting big chunks of it in and you still have the ETFs, you'll get 8 point something probably at worst, right? And 8 % compounded over 12 years on 600, I know, just did it, is$1.5 million in change. Do that for the next seven, eight years after that, and all of a sudden you've retired and you've got 2, 3 million bucks. so look as i said if you want to do it do it absolutely um i wouldn't rush into an smsf personally i i suspect if i if i was still i i was with what's the phone was over the camera now if i was with australian super now and someone said hey you should do an smsf we've got enough in our my wife and my super reannuation to make it cost effective to do that and it's probably slightly cheaper if i did but would i i think i would do effectively something what tim's done I think I'd have a minority because I'm a stock picker and I like it, but I'd have a minority in a couple of ETFs.

39:39Because you have to have – is it 20 % with Member Direct? I think they make you do that. Yeah, they do. That would be fine with me. So I'd have 20 % in Australian and international ETFs, and then I'd pick the stocks that I already own and have it within Vanguard – with Australian Super, and I have no admin, and I'd be the happiest bloke in the world. So should I just do it anyway, change it back? Probably, yeah. But it's just a hassle, so I don't. But, yeah, if I was in Australian Super now around, I don't think you could make me change. I think I'd be happy to do that. I might change to Vanguard Super maybe.

40:03I don't think I'd start an SMSF. You nailed it before by saying, if I wanted to do stuff outside of Australian listed equities and particularly the top 300. The other major driver for SMSF is, of course, because this is Australia, because you want to buy property, right? Yes, exactly. Let's not go down that road. But I mean, you know, so that's why you would do it. But also be careful with never ask a barber if you need a haircut. Yep. And about 13 years ago, I was encouraged to set up a family trust. Yeah, right. And I regret it. It's not anything for us. Yeah. Our family situation has been where my wife took a break from her career to raise the kids as well.

40:51So, you know, we just put everything in. we set up a trust and we just you know allocated all the profits and that so i was like i should have just put it in her name yes and it would have been far easier far cheaper saved all of this hassle and it was just sort of like i felt at the time i was doing something very sophisticated and clever and it's just not so so that's what i just mean if you if you see an accountant that will take a and i'm not having a go at accountancy we all talk our book and you know we're all self-interested individuals, but it's sort of like, should I set up one? They're going to say, yeah, more often than not, because there's a fee involved, right?

41:29I remember the best of intentions. Yeah. A barber can see that you might benefit from a haircut as well as being self-interested. So the combination of those is a bad option. You know, I'm a physical trainer. Should you, a personal trainer, should you exercise more? Yeah. Could you help me? Yeah. Do you want the money? Yeah. It's a nice confidence. Yeah, they're not wrong to say that you should exercise more. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Any more on that? No, no. I mean, again, I just, I'll make the point because it comes up in a whole variety of different contexts. But so many of these questions, so many of these decisions are not either or black and white.

42:02They really are a spectrum. And you can just be like, well, I'm going to do it because I do intend to get more involved. And this is going to allow me to do it. You know, I do like my 1 % Bitcoin position. I'd like to carry that in my SMSF, whatever happens. Oh, I do want an investment property, just to be not focused on one asset class. you know and and fine and then that's perfectly sensible a kind of approach and you can sort of you know justify it by what you in time hope to do yeah and still it's one of those things as well it's not going to be unless you do something really dumb it's not going to be the end of the world you know it's not like you'll be on your deathbed going oh things would have been so much better maybe they could have been a little bit better or that's it right yeah do it for fun do it because you enjoy it um you make it a little bit more a little bit less don't don't I would say don't feel compelled to do it.

42:47Don't feel like you have to or that the smart people do it or the smart money does it or, you know, if you're really serious about this, you have to do that. Do it because you like it, you enjoy it, and you think you might benefit from it and it's fun and enjoyable. Don't do it if it's stressful. Don't do it just because the other cool kids are doing it. Don't do it because someone said you should or that, you know, smart people are supposed to have SMSFs. None of those reasons make sense. And one very more quick thing, and we say it a lot, but it's worth repeating, is that if you are outside of, like, one of these Vanguard Aussie super options or SMSF, unless you are pretty close to retirement, always go high growth.

43:19Yes. High growth. High growth is just a way of them saying, we're just going to be all shares. And that's going to sound riskier, but it's going to give you the best returns. And volatility doesn't matter to people who are a long way away from retirement. In fact, volatility is the price of admission. You get the better returns because of the volatility. And I made the point before, because I just think the labeling on these products is so wrong. wrong because any right thinking person with presented with the rain hey here's your retirement what do you want balanced yeah conservative yeah i'm yeah i don't want to take any risk with it high ultra growth aggressive is worse aggressive no no i don't want to do that and like any again if you don't know what they mean like you're gonna but what you're gonna do is you're gonna have 20 year olds holding cash and bonds and all of these like things that are just guaranteed to lose to inflation and it's just sort of like, yeah, it's silly.

44:11High growth, aggressive. That's why one beef with Vanguard. Vanguard has the Vanguard. It was VDH. Vanguard diversified high growth, right? Right. And it was like, well, it's diversified. It's high growth. So people know ETFs. Well, I should do that, right? Andrew just said I should do that. I should be diversified. High growth. That's great. It's like, what, 10 % bonds or something? It's like, come on, guys. And again, I love Vanguard. They are the good guys without peer. But even that, it's like a bit of marketing. And I think it's all for us. Who's buying the low growth option? Yes. But also, it's not necessarily a marketing thing.

44:47It's actually an investing thing. We see this lots, right? Diversified high growth. Well, of course you know bonds. Even in a high growth, it's fun, shouldn't you? Hyper-concentrated low growth for me. Right, exactly. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.

45:05Let's go to a question from someone who starts with, please keep this anonymous. And I like you. Do that at the top of your thing. That won't be the first time or the last time I've read out someone's name and then read it, they want to be anonymous. So thank you, put it at the top. Hi, Scott and Ram, says our anonymous listener. First off, let me say, after listening to a few financial podcasts, I always find it refreshing to hear you guys offer balanced and logical advice. It is truly shocking how many respected professionals impart their Ponzi-like advice with such conviction. I'm 37 now, and I've been around long enough to know when someone says an investment is a sure thing, it usually isn't.

45:41It's so good that I want to tell you a perfect stranger about it. And I'm not putting any of my money in it, but it's really good. How about that? Yeah. I forever, this is nice. I forever recommend, God, I hate it. I'm forever recommending to family and friends looking to build their financial literacy to tune in to the Motley Fool Money podcast. And I keep finding myself adopting the financial theories and principles you guys discuss week in, week out. So thank you. Keep up the great work. That's very, very kind. Just a small correction. Fact, not theory, but we'll let out. That's a good point.

46:12On my question, my wife... Oh, this is fascinating, dude. My wife and I have been approached by a family member offering a gift of$1.5 million. That's a hell of a gift. Awesome, right? This is our questioner. Here's the but. There are, however, some conditions attached to the gift. One, the money must be used to invest. Two, the assets acquired must remain in a trust controlled by the gifting family member. Three, income generated may be drawn down by my wife and I at any point. Four, the assets held within the trust will be transferred to my wife and I at some undisclosed future date. While we are super excited at the prospect of investing, I now understand, this is a very rap podcast, I now understand what the notorious B.I.G.

46:57meant when he preached, Mo' money, mo' problems. We don't know where to start. Tell you what. Good problems to have, though. 90s? Notorious B.I.G.? Yeah, I think so. Tell you what. Old school rap. He was a rapper, right? Yeah. Yeah, okay, good. We are currently living off a single income as my wife recently gave birth to our second child. Congratulations. We've also paid off the mortgage to our home. Look at that. Well done. We would like to continue living off one income if possible and I'd like to be semi-retired by my mid-50s. I would like to include property in the portfolio as I have a personal interest and skill set in property development.

47:32However, I am conscious of the fact that personal income tax deductions make property investment a much more viable option. Yes. And suspect I won't be able to, given the asset will be held in trust. Also, probably yes. I'm considering ETFs to diversify our investment, which raises the question, what happens when the ETF shuts up shop? How confident can I be that the money doesn't disappear? What general advice can you give, thank you, to help us navigate this great opportunity. Regards, Anonymous. I mean, I think those conditions are pretty reasonable. If I was going to help out a younger relative, it really sounds a little bit parental, but I'd probably want to put some conditions around it.

48:15I don't want you to just go off and buy a Ferrari. That's not the point. I guess it's a question of trust and the rest of it, But I don't think they're unreasonable conditions. So I'll just make that point. Particularly, I mean, there's a million plus bucks there. Like that's pretty cool. Right. You're telling me that there are some conditions? I mean, you want to know what those conditions are, but as long as they're not like, and I have to donate, I have to give you a kidney or a leg or something, then okay. Maybe let's have a chat.

48:51again you can just you can you can just leg into this kind of thing you don't have to make this decision on day one and then commit to it for eternity I'd be tempted to say yes thank you very much day one boom 50 percent in a US based in ETF 50 percent in Aussie basing in them now now I've got time to think about some things and then as I learn more I'm going to come across this I think it's really interesting I'm still not hyper confident still a little bit of doubt I can put two percent there right like that's not gonna what's gonna go wrong there I could go to zero and it's really not gonna make a huge difference overall yeah yeah and you can just sort of like as I mean the danger is is that you get a little bit cocksure and a little bit overconfident through a little bit you did some and this happens all the time in investing where people do dumb things but get rewarded and sometimes you do some really smart things and get punished it's just the nature it's just the nature of of the game but welcome to life yeah welcome to life right and so so sometimes you can get a false confidence that's not really justified and go wait a second of all the companies i've bought in the last six months i've done better than all the experts i stuff this i'm going 100 all in not thinking that six percent six months means nothing in terms of returns, right?

50:03And it may have been absolutely nothing to do with you or the companies as the market was in a good mood or, you know, Central Bank printed up a bunch of extra liquidity and just, you know, flooded into asset prices. Like a whole bunch of things where you want to be sort of careful about it. But I think that's a pretty sensible approach. You're right to be concerned about it and to treat it with the respect that it deserves. But as I said, that first step is a pretty easy step to take, right? And you can't really go too wrong with that. And again, people will say, yes, but even with ETFs, you might lose 30 % or something.

50:37Yeah, but unlikely over a very extended period of time. And if that were to happen over an extended period of time, it reflects a far, far deeper problem that you've got. In other words, things have gotten real in society. And you're probably more worried about fighting the zombies off than what your portfolio returns are. If the stock market's down 30 % over 10 years, like, whoa, things have gotten real. you know, which may happen by the way. But again, I'm just sort of saying there's not a reason not to do it. If you live your life expecting the Mad Max Thunderdome around every corner, you know, then the best portfolio is a pack of seeds, a shotgun, a tent, some zombie spray.

51:15Like go for that. That is the best return that you are absolutely going to get in that scenario. In every other scenario, it's a terrible return. Yeah, correct. I don't know. That was a waffly all over the place. That was good. Anonymous, a couple of thoughts from me. I'll start with the negatives. Be really, really clear with your relative about what the conditions are and how much control you have and what it means for your life. You say income generally may be drawn down at any point. How much income in what year? How much cash is left? I know I'm being pedantic, but it kind of – no money, no problems.

51:52Also, no money, no problems with no family members. It's an ugly mix, right? So it's a very generous gift, but just really, really, really understand. Income may be drawn down. What does that mean? Does that mean every year the dividends can be drawn down? Does it mean assets that are sold in excess of the original investment can be sold down? Frankly, if you want to maximize your income, you should be, you know, if you can't touch the capital and you don't know when you're going to get it, you may want to invest majority in dividend stocks. You maximize that income, right? You may forego some capital growth.

52:22Now, if you know you're going to get it in five years' time and you don't need the income right now, then you might want to maximize it for capital gains. And again, they sound like, again, first class problem, right? You've got a million and a half bucks, you're going to get it at some point. That's a jackpot. That's a lotto win, right? So who cares? But if you're talking about maximising it, just be mindful of what's going to happen there. What does income really mean from that purpose? Other than that, there seems no downside to it. There's not even a downside to income. Just understand what that is.

52:50The one thing I would say, though, is if you're relying on that income to supplement the one income you're currently earning or you want to retire at some point, but you don't know if you'll have that income regularly or whether you'll get the capital by then. There's just that kind of, I wouldn't plan my life assuming it's going to happen. I would probably treat it as bonus money whenever you get it until, unless you know differently, right? Because the family member controls the trust. They can withdraw it at any point. They can change the rules at any point. I'm sure they're wonderful people, right?

53:15They give you a million and a half bucks, right? They're not trying to mess with you. But people have funny thoughts about it, right? If they don't like the way you've done it, if you do something subsequently they don't like, if you don't visit them often enough in the nursing home, things can change. So don't assume you're always going to have it until you've got it. Don't assume you can retire early. Don't assume you can necessarily survive on one income. Take it while you get it, but just be mindful of that. In terms of ETF investing, yeah, if you're a beginning investor, that's a great way to do it.

53:40Again, think about capital versus income. You'll get higher dividends and franking credits with Australian stocks. You'll probably get higher growth with US stocks would be my bet, but I don't know for sure. So have a think about which way you want to pivot that in that direction for that purpose. The ETF shutting up shop is a non-issue. Yeah. As Ram said, you know. Could it happen? Yes. Is there a 100 % guarantee it won't happen? No. There's not 100 % guarantee of anything except for death and taxes. 99.9999 % chance you're okay? Yes. I have money in ETFs. I have invested in my ETFs from my own bloke.

54:13Of all my issues, it's like the million and the first, so don't worry about it. And don't forget the ETFs hold these, whatever the assets are, in trust themselves. That's why it doesn't matter. Correct. Now, sometimes they do shut up shop. ETFs have closed before. and they will normally just return the money to the investor. So that is the answer. If they shut up shop, if Ram & Scott's fancy pants ETF closes tomorrow, then we'll be obliged to give you the money that's already in trust. And we say, right, you gave us$100, here's your$100 back, or it's going to$120, we'll give it to you back in cash and you can then invest it somewhere else.

54:44The chance of it going to zero because of the ETF manager shutting up shop, zero. Could it go to zero if they invested all in Bitcoin? Yeah, I suppose. Or gold. Or I mean, silly Ram, sorry. I was going to suggest that if you're worried about counter-party risk, there is an alternative. But if they invest it all in whale or steel work shares, right? It could go to zero. So, yeah, it matters. Be diversified and be thoughtful. But if you're buying a Vanguard ASX 300 ETF and a Vanguard total market ETF, I don't know what's safer than that. So I wouldn't worry about it. Biggie Smalls would be proud, mate.

55:20That was a good answer. Is Biggie Smalls the same person as Notorious B.A.G.? Yeah, yeah. They change their names all the time. Kanye is now yay. Biggie Smalls ain't changing his name anymore. Snoop. How is he dead? Yeah. Did he get shot? Rappers don't get shot, don't they? There you go. How's Snoop Dogg? He's changed his name a few times. Snoop Doggy Dogg originally, wasn't it? Do I remember that correctly? Yes. Then Snoop and then Snoop Dogg. Was he Snoop Lion for a while? I think it was Snoop Lion for a while. I don't know. You know what? Don't draw me in. But he's a great businessman. Right.

55:54He's actually done very well for himself. I mean, he's got a lot of money, but not so much from his music. He's just been – his brand, which is basically a lot of drugs and whatever. But, you know, he's pivoted that into a pretty viable little enterprise. So, well done. You know, the other really uber successful sort of person, not rapper per se, but, oh God, I just got blank on the name. Deadpool. What's his name? Ryan Reynolds. Right. Yes, yes, yes. Phenomenally successful in terms like the aviation gin and these marketing companies. He's just like really, really clever business people. So, you know, some people get lucky with, you know, right place, right time, and they get their big shot.

56:40Other people just sort of take that as a starting point and just run with it. And like really, there's really, really, you think, oh, look, you are smart. You know what you're doing. He was shot and killed on March 9th, 1997 in LA R-I-P-B-I-G There you go Pour one out Pour one out What's that, man? Oh, come on One for me, one for you, one for the homies You pour the drink on the ground On the ground? Yeah Not a Western drink There's a really good Keel and Peel What are their names again? Comedian sketch on that Anyway, let's get back to that question Let's take it in our wheelhouse here That sounds like a nice rap position.

57:19It's your wheelhouse, Ram. I think you missed your calling. Back in the glory days of rap. Hey, Kyle sent us a message. Say, I am a late disciple to the Motley Fool Money Pod Machine. It's okay. We take. Once you've converted, you've always been a disciple. All the past sins are forgiven. Correct, correct. And it's become a saviour. And unusual, I've got religious verifications. There you go. Every work evening, I do a 10-kilometre walk. Nice. Where I would listen to e-books on Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Michael Lewis, and anything else related to investing and financial history.

57:49Just to interrupt, that is an incredible investment right there. That's the Pantheon, right? Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Well done. Eventually, though, that list was exhausted, and I was beginning to despair about what was going to happen to inspire me to slog my way around a 10-kilometer loop. Then I discovered the pod machine with 800-plus episodes to fill the gaps from the latest generation. Each of them well over time. And that 10K slog has become an event. I now look forward to. Dear, dear. Who would have thought the pod machine could become a literal exercise machine? See, we are personal trainers, right?

58:20We fulfilled our... We fulfilled our... When you have... This is a great... When you have the yin of the sage, steadfast Scott Phillips, balanced with the yang of the resolute, rampaging Andrew Rampage, the combination makes the kilometers just slip away. Rain, hail, or shine. Your ability to break down investing and market trends is insightful. educational challenging but most importantly good fun being also a listener of the afl afr chanteclair podcast combining you two with james thompson and anthony mcdonald would be a great crossover opportunity and i suspect some very good banter would entail perhaps an idea for your thousandth episode yeah maybe we'll see all right so my approach to your mailbag is a little different i run a free investor club nice where i issue a quarterly newsletter to my subscribers discuss my own portfolio performance, along with related market characteristics and investment themes.

59:13My latest one covers a number of topics that have been getting plenty of attention lately. I just hope you can unpick the key aspects you feel your listeners would be interested in. In particular, I leverage a lot of Warren Buffett quotes as the basis for each topic. Hey, that's a copyright breach, mate. That's our job. That's all we do. Easy on. Invitation to Series 4 are flooded, but we are going to sue you for copyright, Kyle. Like we were the first ones to do it. Yeah, that's right. We would have been discovered Warren Buffett. You're welcome, world. Having read every Berkshire letter many times over, it is actually his letters from his private partnership that I have found most insightful, being this captures the genesis of his investment thinking in his earlier investment years.

59:51In particular, his letter of October 1967, man, going deep, justifying his reasons for halting any new money into his private partnership is extremely relevant to market conditions today and the basis for my recent newsletter. However, if time is not your friend, and my plan B is two specific questions from the newsletter that I hope you can discuss. We will. Question one. I've traditionally used a combination of term deposits and bank hybrids to park money as part of waiting for when new business investment opportunities arise. Hybrids were favoured as they tended to provide an income beyond both inflation and term deposits and were easier to liquidate at short notice.

1:00:27The latest decision by APRA to phase out bank hybrids smacks of nanny state intrusion. I am more than capable, says Kyle, I've made my own risk-adjusted decisions on the validity of hybrids, but APRA seems to take the view that retail investors are uneducated and unable to make their own informed decisions. Needs to be a sophisticated investor. Citing the city experience in Europe as justification, seems reactionary at best. Would love your thoughts. Bank hybrids, APRA rules. Look, I've never really dug into them. They haven't been my thing. But, I mean, I agree with you too. I've ranted many times on this stupid distinction.

1:01:02I hate the term retail. I hate the term sophisticated. It's just finance jargon for poor and rich. Are you rich? You can do what you like. Are you poor? No, this isn't for you, right? Like it's just, yes, people get taken advantage of. Yes, people make bad decisions. Yes, these rules and regulations usually enacted with good intent. But, you know, it's just, I mean, we could discuss it for hours. It's just really a question of where you draw the line. And, you know, I'm not way out there at the laissez-faire end of things, but I'm certainly not at the, you know, let the government decide what you can and can't do in every little aspect of your life things either.

1:01:41Where do you put the, where do you plant your flag? And Scott will be different from me, will be different from everyone else. It's kind of a fun, you know, around a campfire with some beers. Let's have at it. In any other format, it's just sort of, you know, it's just a bit tricky. um i do like i i've got a few members on straw man who do this and and i've just come across them of people who have subreddits or uh blogs or um i've gone blank on the main sort of platform that you do sub stack thank you sub stack that that uh that that does it and it's not a business thing. As the listener has said, it's a free thing.

1:02:26I like it because I've always thought, I've always said writing your ideas down clarifies your thinking, improves your thinking and helps you hold yourself to account. Doing it in public is that on steroids. And very few people are prepared because most of us aren't masochists, right? Like I think this and I tell you one thing, right or wrong, the market's going to tell you one way or the other. And it can be brutal, right but but i i think if you are serious about this and it might only be used out there somewhere on the ether that three people read i still think there's value in it like it just that it instills the discipline it forces you to think a bit harder about things learning in public you know as long as you do it with a bit of humility and an open-mindedness and it really is this this endeavor to to to grow and learn in public with with others i think it's a great thing i really I just wanted to applaud that.

1:03:18Sorry, man, I forgot the question. So you're saying a private online investment club is a good thing to join. Is that what I'm hearing you say? Well, I charge, you know, so let's disagree at a point. All right. I feel like there was a question in there. I just like segue. Bank hybrids. Oh, bank hybrids. I don't really know. I'm pronouncing back hybrids. I mean, so the broader question, yes. So in terms of the nanny state, I've probably answered it. But the bigger question here, maybe more general for others in terms of relevance, is do I keep money on the sidelines to take advantage of opportunities?

1:03:53Now, this is a good one, right? We've come up before. So, there's two schools of thought. One is if you're any decent length away from retirement, just go in. Go all in, right? What's the point? Because you are inadvertently timing it even if you're not trying to do it, right? Totally. And even if you happen to buy at the top of, you know, the absolute pinnacle of the market in 2007, I don't know, like in 2027, are you going to care? Like would it have been better to wait six months? Yeah, absolutely. But you don't know, right? So the other one out there, I mean, I do have some sympathy of people who go, well, I'm not sure.

1:04:26So maybe I'll just like I'll commit to dribble in over the next 12 to 24 months and I'll just break it into 24 chunks and I'll do it. There's something to be said for that on receipt of a lump sum. Let's say you've done that though. And let's say you've invested and you're a long-term investor and you're absolutely focused on equities, but you've left 10 % in cash. And I can go both ways on this. This is a tough one. Because on one hand, you'd say all that is, I mean, a fund manager would call that cash drag. You're basically, you're doing the Rocky thing. You're training with lead weights on.

1:05:01It sort of, it makes it hard. There's no subsequent benefit to that though. In Rocky gets fitter, you just lose money. You just lose, your equity investments have to do even better for you to outperform the market on average because there's 10 % there that's doing absolutely nothing. It's particularly in hybrids in terms of what there is some interest component to it. On the other hand, you wake up one day and some really brilliant business that you love the socks off has just dropped 50 % on something stupid and you've got money ready to go. So what's the better alternative? Well, the better alternative is having cash.

1:05:35If you think in some time in the not too distant future, you are going to get a fat pitch like that. If you don't get a fat pitch like that, it is just the one arm behind your back kind of fight. So I probably owe towards being fully invested. And don't forget what you can do in that scenario. Let's say that, I don't know, pick a stock. You wake up tomorrow and ProMedicus is at 20 bucks. Yeah. It's like, well, you can still liquidate half your portfolio and pump it all. You can still free up. Yeah, exactly. Really quickly. In fact, even though there's a two-day settlement period on the exchange, you get access to the funds the second the trade executes.

1:06:08Well, it goes both ways. You settle both the buy and the sell on the same day. So you don't get the money. In the same minute. Exactly, yeah. Yeah, so you can do it that way. Now, that's going to make some hard choices, and there'll be tax consequences, so I do get all of that. But I don't know. Like so many things, there's no right answer, but hopefully some thoughts there that help. What would you do? I think I know what you would do, but what would you do? Yeah, I'm a fully invested guy, as you well know, Ram. so on bank hybrids quickly and apra

1:06:37what is a hybrid can we just yeah well here's the problem right so it's hybrid is in it's a it's a mix of two things uh like a donkey and a horse it's a mule is that right i can't remember whatever it's a tie a lion or a tiger it's a liger or a tyrant or something yeah that's right anyway um so it has it has it has um characteristics of debt and equity i it's a hybrid of those two things and that's kind of where i i don't i don't i have no particularly worried about it from a from a systemic perspective and i don't think i would ban them if i was apra you know i like to ban stuff i don't like ram sometimes it's short selling other things but um i don't really see the need i do think they were missold to investors and where i would have what i would have done with if i was apra and again this is not kyle because he knows what he's doing um and i'm sure many of our listeners do too the idea of a hybrid was and probably the hybrid is and kyle likes them right which is fine.

1:07:27I hate them. They're the worst of both worlds because you have all the risks of debt without the upside of equity. It's kind of like, so hang on, what am I... If the debt goes bad, I don't get paid back. If the share price goes up, I don't get anything extra. It's like, what am I doing? You do get priority in the event of a liquid administration windup kind of thing. I mean, things are not great at that point. Except that to APRA's point, some of these could be actually exercised the bank's pejorative and turned into a progative, sorry, and turned into shares, in which case you don't get that either.

1:07:54So I suspect they were mismarketed by the banks and by some financial advisors as being safe as term deposits but with a higher return. And I've got to say, at some level, I think my issue is always, I know you kind of have the issue with the sophisticated investor thing, and I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think, you know, should everyone be able to access the market at their own terms? Yes. Should there be some sort of truth in labelling? Yes. and maybe that's where we kind of coalesce, right, is I wouldn't ban them necessarily, but when they're sold as, hey, this is great, it's better than a term deposit, it's, you know, remember state mortgage way back in the day?

1:08:34They said, oh, we're mortgage, it was the usual mortgage-backed security. That's like the 80s. I remember Alan Jones was advertising on his bloody breakfast show on 2UE back in the day in Sydney. And it was this idea of like, you know, this great returns, mortgage-backed, so what could possibly go wrong? And the answer was, well, what could possibly go wrong when a state mortgage could go broke and everyone could lose their money? And so bank hybrids, I don't, I don't, they've been, they were, they were marketers being safer than they were by implication, if not actual words. And this is where it gets a bit, this is what I mean about truth in labeling, right?

1:09:02You can say almost, almost as much as you're allowed to say legally and infer a whole lot of other stuff that you don't actually say. And people go, oh, that sounds good. It's like ETF managers. When they say, you know, if you want to ride the crypto craze, buy my ETF. I'm not saying you should, I'm not giving you advice. I'm just saying, if you're looking for an option, here it is. And it's like, that's not advice, right? so you can say whatever you want. It's like, you're kind of really saying you should do this. And you're kind of putting it out there for people and you try and take advantage of, yeah, it's not advice, but Jesus, bloody close.

1:09:30Anyway, in terms of cash, yes, I'm absolutely all in shares all the time. We do run a, what we call a real money portfolio. I run a service called Motley Fool Odyssey. The Motley Fool has given us a million bucks, so we'll give us a million bucks over time to invest. It's 250 odd grand now. I hate being in cash. We're a little bit in cash right now. I hate it because over time, the market goes up. And any time you're in cash, you're statistically not benefiting from it. If you're a really, really, really, really great stock picker and the market's going to work for you, you're fine. Like I say, I love Warren Buffett.

1:10:02I'm not going to criticise the bloke, but he's got close to$300 billion in cash. He's been waiting to invest now for close to a decade. And during that time, the market's gone gangbusters. Now, eventually... He's done him any favours. And eventually, maybe it falls enough for that money to be positive, but probably won't. And again, I'm not going to throw Shade Buffett. He's got too much cash, but he can't find – his biggest challenge is the cash is so large, he can't find anything good to invest in. The longer he waits, the longer the cash gets. You really should. Berks you will as soon as he dies.

1:10:29I'm real. Maybe a year after. Anyway, yeah, don't be cash is my – again, Kyle, I can't do what you should do. But we all like to think we'll wait for the fat pitch, and I get it. By the way, maybe if you're small enough and you're looking at stuff and you can find those fat pitches often enough and the upside is big enough, then great. the longer that cash drags the further the bogey gets away from you so I'm all shares all the time question two from Kyle I might finish this one around I've always been interested in how active investors measure themselves and thus how they treat the goal of achieving alpha or the ability to exceed a relevant index or benchmark we'd love to know how the two of you go about addressing this without obviously giving away any commercial in confidence secrets we don't have to give up our trading system our black boxes that we use on our computers.

1:11:15Please keep up the great work and may the 10 kilometres continue to drift away as I listen to the dulcet tones of Scott and Ram. Many thanks, Kyle. Dulcet is very generous and completely untrue. Mate, how do you go about measuring yourself and trying to achieve alpha or outperform your benchmark? Yeah, I mean, I think the best way is just one of these broad-based indexes, the market. I can guarantee, short of a 0.1 % management fee, the performance of the Australian share market by buying an ETF. There's a dozen of them out there that will achieve that. So if I can do that with zero work and effort and thought, you know, and I'm actually doing work and all this, not just the work, but the stress and the anxiety and I'm not beating that.

1:12:05I'm doing something really wrong. Right. Not really wrong necessarily. You're just not necessarily getting it right enough to beat the market. Yeah. I'm not, I'm basically, either I'm getting intrinsic value in the process itself. I just enjoy it. Otherwise it's just, it's counterproductive. I'm doing, I'm getting, I'm putting in a lot more work and I'm getting a worse result. So it has to be, to my mind, it has to be at least that. These days, and I just, you know, figures get tossed around and there's different studies, different methodologies, but generally people will sort of say the long-term performance of the market's about 10%.

1:12:41So for me, it's about 10%. I want to try and get a bit more than 10 % a year. I want to get as much more than 10 % a year. But I'm realistic in the sense that, you know, I remember years ago I was doing a show on TV. I was a host of Your Money, Your Call Days. And one of the professionals, I can't even say it with a straight face, came on and we were talking about that. And I said, oh, what's your hurdle rate? And he said, 23%.

1:13:11there's like 18 things wrong with that right like one who do you think you are 23 like not 22 not 24 23 like i just i just really stuck with me i was like you're an idiot like right then anything else that you had to say i just could not take seriously like yeah by the way just speaking of buffett we've got to pick up pick on some other famous investors but I mean, he's done 20 % per annum over 50 years. Yeah. And here you are, you know, still with pimples and barely out of school. You're going to do better than that, apparently. Yeah, yeah. But by 3%. Like, it's stupid. Crude sells. I bet he raised some money.

1:13:47People are like, oh, I think if he can do that, if he thinks he can do that, I'll give him some money because maybe he will. Yeah, he's not around anymore, which is the least surprising fact you'll ever hear all day. Hi, if you're listening. Sorry. But, I mean, you know, pride cometh before the fall, right? And so, yes, you want to – but the other thing you've got to remember here too is that – I know it's a little bit wonkish, but you want a good risk-adjusted return. We've all always said that the best returning investment is a lottery ticket. Spend a couple bucks and make$20 million. You're not going to beat that, right?

1:14:25But when you look at that return potential relative to the risk that you must take, relative to the potential of that going your way, I mean, it's a very different proposition. So there are some people, there's people out there right now who are now retired sitting on a beach somewhere because they bought the Trump meme coin. They bought early enough, they dumped before the rug was pulled. Now, it's easy to go, what a genius. I'm like, were you though? Yeah, that's right. Were you? I mean, try that a hundred times and see how often it works out. So you want a good return. I think you want something that's better than the market average.

1:15:02But you also want to make sure that you're not taking silly risks in pursuit of that because even if you're right, you still did the wrong thing. Correct.

1:15:14Yes. So two answers, Kyle, on this one. The first for me is that I personally, I don't care about the benchmark. The benchmark for me is just a question to Ram's point of should I buy an ETF anyway, right? Because I'm really not trying to get just 10.1 % if the benchmark's going to do 10. I'm trying to maximize my returns. To your point, I'm trying to get as much as I possibly can. So it doesn't really matter what the benchmark is I choose other than making sure that what I'm doing is actually justified and worthwhile. If I'm getting 8 % regularly, the mark's doing 10s, I do that for 10 years, I can pretty much assume I should probably change jobs, buy an ETF and let that do its job, right?

1:15:52So it matters over that period of time. You absolutely should keep score for sure. But I'm not aiming just to get 10.1. I'm not trying to say, well, I'll take a little bit of risk, but not too much risk. I only take enough risk, so I just get over that amount of money. I'm not that good. No one's that good. It would be hubris in the extreme for me to think I can aim to get half a percent more and therefore reduce my risk thereafter and not try and get any more than that because I'm so good at getting exactly what I want. I'm good. So there's that. For me, the benchmark I use is the all-ordinaries.

1:16:19Why? Largely because that's just the most representative index of the Australian stock market. It's the largest index that we have. I could choose the 200 or 300. I could choose the All Lords because, again, that's what the market will do more. The 200 excludes the bottom 800 companies, not for good reason or bad reason, just because it does. You can get a return or you can have a worse return buying the All Lords. We don't know. But the market is best described, in my opinion, and we've always used that at the full. Even when the market moves or investors move to the ASIC 200 as the premier index, we still use the All Lords because we think it's the best one to use.

1:16:52When I do radio and TV, I talk about the All Lords every time. Everyone else looking at the ASX 200, I'm not doing it to be ordinary. It's just a better index. It's a more representative index of shareholders as a group. The more money it includes, the more market cap it includes, the more representative it is of the average return achieved by the Australian investor or the investor in the Australian market. That being said, they're very similar, right? Well, at least for 300 companies, they're pretty small. So, yeah, exactly. You're right. I think as a matter of principle and philosophy, it's a better index.

1:17:20Now, for me at work, the answer is it depends.

1:17:26we have services that have specific mandates and so we saw the same index by the way we use the all odds for everything that we do but in doing so um we recognize it was also except for the u.s um uh focused companies will use the s &p 500 because the regulator has a view that you should measure a company against its own index not against ours we for a while actually use the u.s against the all odds on the basis that the average australian would measure themselves against the Australian market. ASIC disagreed and said, no, we think you should measure your performance against the home market of the company.

1:17:57I said, okay, that's fine. It's their call. I don't necessarily agree. I think it's the most appropriate for if you're being member-focused rather than company-focused, then you measure against their home market, but that's the ASIC's call and that's fine. Other than that, we do the all odds. Share Advisor, which I run, is the old service we've done. It focuses on medium and large-cap stocks. So I am deliberately culling my universe down to a smaller number. We only do, you know, there's only 200 or 300 stocks in that group. Why? Because that's what the service offers. We also have a small cap service.

1:18:32Those who want small caps. And again, they don't pick large companies have big opportunities. So when you're, it depends on how broad your style is. If you go anywhere investor, the ASX 200 or the All Lords makes much more sense. If you're a tech investor, you might as well be yourself with a tech index if you want. The question really is, what else could I have done? And passive, broad passive is the best example of that, right? As soon as you change from that, you're saying, I'm applying some investment view to which index I use, which you can do, but why track the tech index if you make more money by resources?

1:19:05Why only do tech? Because you choose to, it's fine. And if investors are looking for a tech fund and they invest in that fund because they want that as part of their portfolio, you're entirely appropriate to offer it by just realizing that as an investor your your um your comparison set should be the market right and trying trying to beat that um last one we have one service everlasting income it's called we don't have a benchmark at all which sounds really weird and stupid um we've designed that service specifically for income for our members and we have deliberately there are people out there now ram will say absolutely correctly i'll say on your behalf ram um absolutely correctly you could make as much money as you can in capital gains and sell some of those shares and get a drive a really nice annual income from it.

1:19:42And he's a million percent right. That's absolutely possible and absolutely justifiable and more than that worth doing if you can do it well. So you should. There are members we have who are like, I don't want to buy and sell shares to generate income. It's too hard, too much hassle. I don't know where the share price is going to go. It's too volatile. I just want you to get a regular income stream. And so we said, we will do a service like that. It was modeled on what I did for my mother-in-law, literally for her retirement portfolio. And it was just, hey, you want a regular income stream, you're on a regular cash amount coming from your account into your personal account to pay your bills and go on holidays and do what you've got to do.

1:20:15So we have that for our members. We don't benchmark it. Why? We'll probably lose to the benchmark. Is that a horrible, horrible thing? Well, again, you could beat the benchmark and then sell some shares for income. Those members don't want to do that. They want regular income. Our portfolio value is growing. It's growing quite nicely, actually. And we pay out a regular income and we manage a cash pile so that we can have that regular income without worrying about the timing of dividends. So there's no benchmark for that. And we just don't because that's not what we're trying to do. So it depends on the answer, which is Ram's favorite.

1:20:44But I hope that gives you a sense of it, Kyle. For me personally, the benchmark is just for me to say, am I still doing good enough to justify doing it myself? For our members, we should be transparent. We should be trying to beat the benchmark or they should buy an ETF. So we do track it against that. The last one quickly is timeframes. I have a five plus year timeframe. I don't care what happens in the next year, next two years, next three years. I'd like to beat the market every year. It'd be wonderful. I'd like to beat the market by 158 % every year. But if wishes for horses, beggars would ride, as they say.

1:21:11So, you know, I'm trying to beat the market over time, but five years is my horizon. Why? We've talked about this a lot. Market is weird for periods of time. Take the tech sector and the oil sector, right? Tech had a great 2022, I want to say, I think it was, and then it got smashed in 23. Oil had a bad 22, came back in 23. It's an arbitrary trip around the sun. Five years is enough time for a thesis to play out, in my opinion, so that's my time frame. Nice. Any more on that, mate? No, I think you covered it well. Which is good because we are well and truly over time, or at least, well, there's no time limit on this one, but at some point, the 10K run, I hope you've done an extra kilometre, Kyle, is all I'm saying.

1:21:51This has been a long way. We've given you some time to extend that exercise, unless you've listened to a Warren Buffett book or something else, in which case you haven't ever heard this one yet, but great question, mate, and thank you. If you want to send us a question, info at fool.com.au is the best way to get them to us. Our sensational member services, Fools, make sure I don't screw it up and forget stuff. If you send it to me on the socials, I may or may not remember to put it in the queue. So info at fool.com.au. Old school, I know, but email is the best way to go. That being said, Ram mentioned either today or on Friday, he's been tweeting recently, which is a rare and unusual occurrence.

1:22:23If you want to see what he's up to, make sure you follow him on Twitter at Sage underscore Simeon. Still exclusively on Twitter. Thanks for a multi-million dollar deal with Elon Musk, who's paying Ram to only post on Twitter. Obviously, very, very worthwhile for Ram and for Elon. So well done, mate, on securing that deal. It's X, by the way. No, it's Twitter. You can also follow strawman at strawmaninvest. Follow me on Twitter, Insta, and bluesky at tmfscottp, and on Facebook at facebook.com forward slash scottphillipsmoney. It will be Twitter till the day I die, Ram. But until next Friday, see you on Twitter.

1:22:59Have a great week and full on. Cheers. The Motley Fool and people appearing in this program may have positions in the companies mentioned. General advice only. Please speak to your financial professional to understand how it may pertain to your situation. Subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener. The Motley Fool operates under Financial Services Licence 400691.

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