In short
A Motley Fool Money mailbag episode covering (1) whether ETF investors are “forced buyers” of expensive IPOs under NASDAQ’s new fast-track rule (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) and (2) Australia’s minimum wage policy and its effects on education, skills, employment, and housing affordability.
Guests/backgrounds
Andrew “Rampage” (host) and Scott (host). No external guests; questions come from listeners Lewis and Nathan.
Key claims
ETF IPO inclusion isn’t a scam; passive index investing requires holding market-weighted constituents even if you dislike them. The 15-trading-day IPO-to-index change likely won’t materially affect returns because IPO weights are small (SpaceX ~0.47–0.70%; combined maybe ~1.5%). Minimum wage laws are debated: one host argues they’re a deliberate trade-off that reduces low-wage employment but can support a “living wage”; the other argues outcomes matter and that distortions can reduce job availability and disincentivize upskilling.
Notable examples
NASDAQ rule shortening index inclusion from ~12 months to 15 days; rent control vs minimum wage; “cash-in-hand” childcare; unpaid internships vs work experience; Harvester-era rationale for minimum wages.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VODiscussion Begins: SpaceX IPO and ETF Implications
0:45 to 3:00
The hosts dive into a listener's question about SpaceX and its implications for ETF holders.
“If that's what you were trying to suggest on this podcast, who am I to say that's not true?”
Understanding ETF Strategies and Market Forces
3:00 to 6:00
Exploration of the dynamics of ETF investing and the impact of forced buying on investors.
“And I'm not saying, ha, ha, ha, you've made your bed, you have to sleep in.”
The Impact of NASDAQ's Fast Entry Rule
6:00 to 10:00
Discussion on the NASDAQ's new rules for IPOs and their implications for investors.
“I forget the exact maths, but I read the other day that, you know, it's like SpaceX will be a percent or something.”
Market Psychology and Investor Behavior
10:00 to 13:00
The hosts analyze how market psychology influences investor decisions during IPOs.
“And the reason I say that is simply because don't pretend NASDAQ is trying to do the best for you.”
Introduction of a New Listener Question
13:00 to 14:00
A new listener named Nathan introduces himself and prepares to ask a question.
“When I'm very certain of a thing, I invest or I trade on it.”
Discussion on Betting Markets
14:00 to 14:46
Exploring the dynamics of betting markets and probability assessment.
“Oh, did I just speak on your phone for five minutes?”
Nathan's Question on Minimum Wages
14:46 to 17:55
Nathan raises concerns about Australia's minimum wage and its effects on the economy.
“My name is Nathan and I have been listening to the pod machine for about a year now and love the rants.”
Arguments Against Minimum Wage
17:55 to 21:06
Andrew discusses potential negative consequences of raising minimum wage.
“I'm actually against the minimum wage, I think.”
Debate on Minimum Wage Effectiveness
21:06 to 27:56
A spirited debate on the necessity and impact of minimum wage laws.
“Now, the usual retort here is, oh, so we're going to send the kids down the salt mines.”
Debating Minimum Wage and Its Impact
28:01 to 33:24
The hosts discuss the implications of minimum wage laws and their societal effects.
“Otherwise it would be a remarkable coincidence that 20 % of people earn exactly minimal wage and wouldn't get a cent less if we took the regulation away.”
Show all 18 chapters
Exploring Rent Control and Housing Affordability
33:25 to 36:54
A debate on the merits and drawbacks of rent control in addressing housing affordability.
“Largely – well, it gets back to how you define the minimum wage then, right?”
Market Dynamics and Welfare Solutions
36:55 to 42:00
Discussion on market solutions versus welfare interventions in ensuring living standards.
“So if there was no minimum wage, I would probably not go for rent controls.”
The Discourse on Economic Distortions
42:00 to 44:24
A discussion on the unintended consequences of minimum wage laws and the inefficiencies in job markets.
“third order unintended consequences where sometimes the medicine's worse than the disease, right?”
Housing Market Solutions
44:24 to 46:52
Exploration of potential solutions to housing affordability and economic stability through public housing and welfare payments.
“For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.”
Wages and Immigration Impact
46:52 to 49:52
Analysis of how immigration affects wage levels and market dynamics in various sectors.
“or providing some sort of supplementary welfare payment to top up the incomes.”
Inflation and Wage Growth
49:52 to 52:48
Discussion on the relationship between wage increases and inflation, examining market responses.
“But you're going to be circular though, right?”
Opportunity Cost: Housing vs. Shares
52:48 to 56:00
Exploring the considerations of investing in housing versus stock shares and the implications for financial security.
“Nick says hi it's Scott and Ram first time listener first time sorry long time listener first time emailer that's good for years I have walked among ordinary investors, the lost, the leveraged, the perpetually wrong.”
Housing Security vs. Financial Security
56:00 to 59:30
The hosts discuss the complexities of housing versus investment in shares.
“How's it shooting us to finish security?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:07Welcome to Motley Fool Money. It is Wednesday afternoon. It's not really. No, I'm kidding. It's Sunday morning. Of course it is special. Of course it's our mailbag.
0:30and things. Anyway, it turns out it's Australia's premier online investment club. It is strawman.com. Here's Andrew Rampage. How are you, buddy? Good, mate. It's also derriere extraordinaire as well. Can I just quietly put in there? If you want to big up your backside, mate, feel free. If that's what you were trying to suggest on this podcast, who am I to say that's not true? I can't say I've noticed, mate, but I'm sure you wouldn't lie to our listeners, so if you say you've got a nice backside, I'd love to. Sorry, I watched Zoolander again the other day and I just That was reminded of that when you said extraordinary.
1:03I like to try to make a pop culture reference rather than referencing your own backside. If that makes you feel better, if you get out of it, go for it, go for it, go for it. Mate, let's kick in to questions straight off the bat, mate, rather than getting distracted. And we've talked, in fact, we recorded this before, SpaceX IPOs, but you will hear this after it's hit the market. So fair to say, we don't know what happened next, But this is not really about the – we talked about it a month or a month and a half ago. A month ago. So, yeah, you heard us talk about it, but this is a different question from Lewis.
1:35He says, hi, gents. I'm a long-time listener, first-time questioner. I've enjoyed the rants, Bitcoin chats, and constant bashing of fractional reserve banking and the RBA. Thanks for dumbing down concepts for us, quote, retail investors, end quote, and calling BS on industry practices. Lewis, you didn't use the full word. I'll just clean it up a little bit and keep it PG. My question, Sir Lewis, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are all reportedly heading to public listings this year. NASDAQ's new, quote, fast entry, unquote, rule, means mega cap IPOs joined the NASDAQ 100 after just 15 trading days, down from up to 12 months.
2:15The S &P Dow Jones and the FTSE Russell are consulting on similar changes. Combined, these IPOs could raise$240 billion plus at valuations of around$1.75 to$2 trillion for SpaceX and about a trillion each for OpenAI and Anthropic. So, he asks, as ETF holders, are we forced buyers being scammed into picking up three of the most expensive IPOs in history at peak valuations? Or if we're holding for the long term, is it nothing to worry about? Appreciate the not-so-personal advice. Thanks. Lewis, absolutely not so personal. What do you think, mate? Is this a scam being perpetrated on ETF holders? It's not a scam, but you're absolutely being forced to buy it.
2:59But that's what you signed up for. And I'm not saying, ha, ha, ha, you've made your bed, you have to sleep in. I'm not saying it in a bad way. I'm saying that's the point. The point is I'm not picking stocks. Just give me the biggest stocks market-weighted on the index in the same proportion. That's the strategy. And it's a tough strategy because it requires you to hold things that you don't like. I've got, I think in a super thing, so I've probably got a little bit of an ETF for the Aussie market. So I'm holding the banks and I hate them. I don't want anything to do with them, but I'm holding them.
3:39But I can't have it both. I mean, this is where people, I mean, they wrestle with it and they rightly do, right? It's like I, it turns out that passive investing so far at least have a very long stretches of time, tends to beat most professionals and, you know, short of some very, very low fees, I pretty much get the market average and the market average is good. So I'm going to do that. And as soon as you go, but I don't like this or I don't like that, it's kind of like, that's cool. You're absolutely entitled to those opinions. And yes, it does force you into things that you might not otherwise want.
4:13but it's kind of like you're throwing the whole philosophy out the window, which you can do, you're free to do. Again, I don't want to, I'm trying very hard not to put any judgment or even pretend that I've got some hidden judgment that I'm just holding back. It's not, I'm just, I'm just trying to point out the obvious that it's kind of like, that's what you're signing up for. And if you sign up for it, you've kind of got to roll with the punches because that's kind of, that's the point. The point is not to pick stocks. The point is just to throw your lot in with the biggest, you know. And just because it's worked in the past, by the way, doesn't mean it's guaranteed to always work in the future.
4:49I don't be surprised if you did terribly out of it, honestly. But it's a tricky one. What about the fast pass bit? Because that's the ETF stuff. I think Lewis was kind of saying we would have had to wait a year until it goes in the index. And at that point, in theory, the market settled on some sort of reasonable price. Now it's going to be 15 days. There's a bigger chance. I'm going to read between the lines here and suggest Lewis is saying he thinks these are overvalued. And because we're being forced to buy them after 15 days rather than a year, that change in rule makes it a larger chance.
5:19If you're not scammed, at least ETF investors are kind of the dumb money forced to buy these things when no one else maybe wants them. Maybe they do. Maybe the price will go up. But his point is a year is a longer time for the price to settle. Is that an issue, do you think, or is that something you should be worried about? I look, it's an issue if all of the material going into the prospectus was made up. We've got all of the, they have fulfilled their fiduciary duties in disclosing everything that is required of them to disclose in the market in its infinite wisdom has made a judgment on that.
5:55Like all judgments, it may turn out in the fullness of time, it was a bad judgment. But again, I don't think it's going to make as much of a difference as people think. I forget the exact maths, but I read the other day that, you know, it's like SpaceX will be a percent or something. Yeah, yeah. Maybe even less than that. It was a very small number. So let's say that it does turn out to be over, and again, listen to the other episode that we've done on it for our thoughts on the valuation, but if it, for whatever reason, drops 90 % over the course of the year, It's like 0.9 % of your overall returns in and of itself.
6:36I don't know. And if we waited a year, we're then assuming that, well, then now the price is right. It's like, is it? Maybe over the course of the next 12 months, Trump just juices things up. Money printer go burr. Equity valuations go to the moon. Doesn't make any sense. It's all a nonsense. Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter. It did. It's like, thank God we got that. or, oh, we waited for a year and now we're buying it at an even higher price and 12 months hence from that, we're going to regret it. So it's not, they're really interesting points, Lewis. I agree. I've thought about them myself. I just don't, there are things in this world that it's true to say will make a difference, but the degree and magnitude of that difference, I think is almost the more important thing.
7:24And I could be totally wrong. I'm keen to see what your thoughts are, mate, but I don't think it's something I would lose any sleep over. And if I was an ETF investor, I'd be like, okay, well, this is what I'm here for, right? I've done a little bit of tiny Googling, and it says here that SpaceX's weighting is predicted to be approximately 0.470 to 0.70%. So throwing in Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe you get to 1.5%, something like that, probably not even. Right. And you're right, it could go either way. I'm not worried about it. I will say, so a couple of things to be a little bit cynical, which I know is your job, mate, but I'll jump in, is remember the exchanges aren't there to help you.
8:06They're there to make money, right? So they are not here now. In a perfect world, you talk about natural monopolies, mate. I was actually only thinking this morning, you were talking about fire trail conversations in an episode coming up we've already pre-recorded. No, no, I had already recorded. It's actually went out a month ago. We talked about that a while ago. My version was a shower thought this morning. In terms of natural monopolies, having a monopoly market or a duopoly market owned by for-profit providers when they have, I would say, public obligations, either there's better regulation or a different ownership structure, I suspect.
8:43But that's kind of just a different angle. Remember that NASDAQ wants you to buy shares, and they want to make money, and they want big companies to list on the NASDAQ, and they will do whatever they can to get them on the NASDAQ because New York Stocking Shares would have said, hey how about us and SpaceX would have gone well guys you both want me let's talk about what you need to do to make this happen and so they are not there saying on principle we will do x uh as with all due respect to the good people at Nasdaq they are not trying to maximize the public good here okay and arguably they should morally arguably government should require them to but they're not and they don't so they don't and so you know Nasdaq wants SpaceX on the index and they want them there quickly and they want them to be talked about and bought and traded and all stuff because they make the money.
9:24So, yes, you're right to be a little bit – we're not being scammed to Ram's point, but let's be honest, this is not an impartial market operator trying to get the best outcome for market participants. It is not. They're trying to get the best outcome for themselves. Now, they might get that in part. As we all are. Totally, right. As are the people who are buying the shares or choosing not to buy the shares. And the broker is out there pumping them. You just have to recognize the incentives to play. That's really what I'm saying. So, there's that. It turns out people like to make their life better if they give them half the chance or at least in a way that they think will result in that.
9:53Correct. And then it's government's job to decide whether or where that is not serving the public good. And we've talked about the referees in the game a million times, but you get the idea. And the reason I say that is simply because don't pretend NASDAQ is trying to do the best for you. Or don't believe that. I'm not saying you are, Lewis, but just understand what their role is and understand what their incentives are. So we're not being scammed. There is an argument to say these companies should be on the ETF, on the index earlier, by the way. And here's the reason why. If you think about what is an index, an index is all of the companies added together.
10:26Here's what the ASX in our case, the NASDAQ in their case, looks like. Now, let's just say, for example, BHP decided to go private tomorrow, and then the day after, we relist our shares on the market, and we said, actually, BHP can't be included in the ASX 200 for 12 months. The reasonable question would be, well, why wouldn't it? It's big, and it's valuable, and it's meaningful, and it's important. And if you're trying to track the market, isn't it the market? I mean, what else is it if it's not part of that ETF index? So I understand why you would wait to let the price settle. But I also think if you are trying to be fair, I don't think it's an easy decision to say 12 months is the right amount.
11:01Maybe it should be two years. Maybe it should be two days. Maybe it should be on listing because it is the market. People are going to sell their shares in Apple or Facebook or NVIDIA and buy shares in SpaceX. So in that case, you've got more value being taken out of somewhere, added to somewhere else. But you're only counting one half of the transaction, not the other half. So I'm not saying it should necessarily, Lewis, but I don't think it's just a scam. I don't think it's just self-interest, though it's both. It's definitely self-interest. But I don't think it's just self-interest. And there is an argument, I think, to support the idea that having it inside the index when it should be there, because it's literally there, it exists.
11:37Pretending it's not there is almost worse than putting it in our 15 days, I would suggest. So I'm not entirely sure it's the wrong approach, frankly. And to Ram's point, who knows what happens to the share price in those 15 days and after that point. Yeah, we're all assuming it's going to crash afterwards. Right, right, right. And I'm not saying it's not, but I just like, we don't know. We don't know. The fact of the matter is, is that every man and his dog is out there clamouring for the stock. That tells you something. They could be all drinking the Kool-Aid. Nevertheless, it's beside the point.
12:06We love to put judgment on top of these actions from other people. No one, I said on the episode we did it, no one is buying this because they think they're going to lose money. That's right. You know, everyone's – And you say it's a market price. They're openly and willingly exchanging cash for ownership interests at the available price. You're choosing – you're doing that because you think it's going to be a good investment. That's why you're doing it. You might be wrong. Yeah. You might be right. Some people will do dumb things all the time. And occasionally there is a mass hysteria where everyone does a dumb thing.
12:35And, again, maybe that is the case. But I just – I feel like I'm sort of – I'm inadvertently trying to defend it. I'm not. I'm just saying we've got to be so careful with these judgments. I made the point the other day to someone who was making that exact, oh, it's ridiculous. I was like, you should short it. What do you mean? It's like, it's so obvious. You're very high. I wasn't trying to be a douchebag about it. It's just like, you've obviously got a very strong conviction. You're very certain of it. When I'm very certain of a thing, I invest or I trade on it. That's the view. It's like, well, I wouldn't do it.
13:12And it's just like, well, then you do not believe what you say, my friend. At least not sufficiently enough to put the money behind it. At least not sufficiently enough, yeah. We've all got an opinion when there's nothing on the line. Yeah, totally, totally. And you don't have to be wrong necessarily, but you're right. The passion with which the opinion is given is not matched by the willingness to support that opinion with hard cash, right? This is why, as a very brief aside, I actually think prediction markets are the best type of polls. Because money's on the line. And it's actually not just me.
13:48It's just like, wow, isn't it surprising that the prediction markets got all the recent major elections all correct? When the professional polling institutes were like, oh, that was a surprise. No one saw that. I'm like, yeah, because when you just ring up and ask me an opinion, what? Oh, did I just speak on your phone for five minutes? I don't know. I think this. It's very different to when I'm putting$1 ,000 on this opinion. It's very different. I think that's true. I had this conversation on Twitter, and not to be arguing for the sake of it. There's many people on the other side of the trade because the money's got to be matched.
14:17Right. But where they meet? Correct, correct. But all I'm saying is that it's directionally, proportionally, probabilistically more accurate. I think that's absolutely right. I just make the point. It's not like, it turns out everyone on polymarkets betting on Trump winning. Okay, well, he's obviously going to win. It's like, no, no, no. someone took the other side of each one of those bets. So half people write half or still wrong. But as you say, the price at which they meet gives you a signal which is probabilistically likely to be more accurate than other things. I think that's absolutely right.
14:44Yeah. Nathan says, hello Scott and Andrew. My name is Nathan and I have been listening to the pod machine for about a year now and love the rants. But I'm a first time questioner and have a doozy of a question. Good luck, says Nathan, which sounds like a challenge. As always, before I ask the question, you know what comes. I, Nathan, Bow down and kiss the metaphorical ring of the pod machine. But as a 26-year-old bastard, in this economy, I must resort to this being a ring pop that I kiss instead of the shiny gold one you guys deserve. Very nice. I was never a fan of the ring pops. Would you be a ring pop kind of guy?
15:18Hell yeah. Were you? Okay. I'm a chocolate lollies guy. I had one the edges the other day, funnily enough. There was a spare one that was around, and I'm like, oh, I'll give that a go. You took one of your children's lollies, didn't you? For their own good.
15:34This question says Nathan Is in regard to minimum wages And hopefully this one will achieve My goal of some glorious rants From both of you I have noticed with Australia's very high minimum wage That is consistently In capital letters raised to match or beat Inflation regardless of consequences And I have begun to notice a compression Of low skill and high skill wages This compression appears to Apply across almost all industries I look at. And before I continue, I need to preface, he's been listening for a while, people deserve a livable wage. Additionally, I have zero issue with people immigrating to our country, especially to support the economy.
16:10But this compression seems to have created a divide where Australians are becoming disincentivised to seek higher education. The time and money investment, along with the minor increase in income as a result, is starting to make it not worth it for the average person. Meanwhile, for most immigrants, these high-skilled positions, regardless of how close to minimum wage they are, is a golden ticket to a better future for them and their family. I actually looked at the data on this, says Nathan, and the proportion of Australian-born people going into higher education has been in decline for the last decade.
16:42And I have high confidence that at least a chunk of this is what I mentioned above. To me, this seems incredibly doomerish for Australians. Australians are slowly having less and less reason to seek high-skilled labour, but obviously these are in demand positions that need people so it should be self-balancing except when we fill the gap with qualified people through immigration which in volume terms is outpacing housing when looking at the abs data therefore forcing population up faster than what we would like and ironically increasing the cost of living even faster what are your thoughts on this i feel this is one of those things with a blunt force instrument of increasing minimum wages to relieve the cost of living is ironically actually making things worse, while slowly disincentivising the education and upskilling of the Australian people and the creation of new businesses.
17:27As a global economy, this is fine. We are giving life-changing opportunities to those in much worse circumstances in other countries and helping bring everyone up. But, says Nathan, at an individual country level, it feels like this aggressive minimum wage raising is slowly creating an unskilled and uneducated Australian population without ever impacting the cost of living in real terms. Good luck untangling this one, he says. I wish you the best in not upsetting anyone when discussing this topic, and I look forward to hearing the rants. Best regards, Nathan. Oh, God. There you go, mate. Thanks.
17:58Thanks, Nathan. Have a run-up. Go for it. Well, my thinking's evolved on this. I'm actually against the minimum wage, I think. Oh, dear. Yeah. So, just Andrew Page is the man who said that. If you're reading the transcript later, go on. was it Thomas Sowell or Friedman, he said, we've got to judge policies by their outcomes and not by their intentions. And it's a really, really good and very obvious point. The intention is, is that we should stop people being exploited and we should mandate against it. And that's a really good thing. Who's against that? I'm not against, I am anti-exploitation for the record.
18:41but the academics have looked at it right and there is a trade-off there and so what it does is it absolutely increases the minimum wage but it absolutely guts the amount of work that is available at that wage. So Sowell, I never know how to pronounce it, S-O-W-E-L-L, Sowell? Sowell, I've never heard of it. Sowell, I think it's pronounced. It's funny because when you read more than you listen you're never sure of how the pronunciation is so true um but he says the real minimum wage is zero and that that's that's the minimum wage and and and like you say everyone who does who cleans toilets should be paid a hundred dollars an hour because that just sounds fair and for a reason it's like okay great but then you're going to have a lot less people doing it because someone has to pay that wage and there's going to be very few people who are prepared to sort of pay.
19:33It's a silly example, but directionally it gives you a problem with it. There's a line there between a number of people employed and wage paid per hour. It just must be because at some point you're often saying, I can't afford to pay that much for that person. Yep. Welcome to supply and demand curves. This is what it is. And again, you can lay a moral judgment on top of it and that's fine, but the point nevertheless remains. so the other thing is you've always got to remember that there are trade we talk about all the time when it comes to economics it is it is almost you could define economics as the study of trade-offs right and and and whenever you distort something and there's baggage with that but literally it's true you are distorting a free market pricing mechanism there are unintended consequences with this.
20:29The other classic example that sits side by side with minimum wage laws is rent control. Again, really comes from a good place. Bastard landlords charging too much. We should stop them doing this. Well, actually what it does is it actually drastically reduces the available supply of low income housing because it's just not economic for me to buy the house, service the interest, pay for the maintenance and it be positive. So I can do it if I want, but it's a charity at a certain point. It's certainly not something I would do for any rational economic kind of reason. So it's counterintuitive, but it's counterproductive, is the argument.
21:05So that is where I stand on it. Now, the usual retort here is, oh, so we're going to send the kids down the salt mines. Well, you would say this, that don't forget that for any trade that makes sense, both people have to sort of agree with it. So if I sort of say, hey, I'm offering one cent an hour for someone to come up, come into my backyard and dig a coal mine in horrendous conditions. I would think it is almost impossible I would find anyone to do that job. That job vacancy would be there forever. And then someone would go, oh, but if someone is desperate enough, then they would maybe do that.
21:45And that's kind of true. But then you start getting to much broader societal kind of issues. And I just don't know if focusing on a specific employment contract is sufficient to address a much broader problem that's there. You would also sort of say that if I was doing anything that endangered your liberty and safety, that you would have a very strong legal case against me. So even if I did decide to do all of that, someone actually rocked up and then I was found to have an incredibly unsafe marketplace. I would probably be sued to oblivion and I would probably no longer be in business in exploiting people in this way.
22:20But again, I would only be exploiting people if someone said I will be exploited, right? So it's difficult. And like a lot of these economic arguments, when you point to very extreme ends of it, you will find very uncomfortable, undesirable kind of outcomes. I just don't know if in the modern Australian context, or in fact, much of the modern global context, that you would find people prepared to do those kinds of jobs for those kinds of prices. I would need to find, I would need to offer enough for someone to take the risk or for little Billy's parents down the road to go, yeah, we're happy for you to go and dig dangerous holes in Andrew's backyard for five cents a day.
23:00Right? It just would. So it's sort of like I'm always a little bit, I'm always a little bit skeptical of the only, particularly in something like a soft science, like economics, where it's just super, super, super messy. Whereas the only argument not to do something is a very, very fringe, far left of the bell curve example. It's kind of, yeah, but it works in every other example, except for that one. It's like, that's probably not a reason not to do it. Because again, back to our trade-offs. It's like, okay, well, let's do it so that no one ever suffers in that kind of way. We have minimum wage laws.
23:33Do you think there's no exploitation that happens right now? Do you know how many people do not have a job that would otherwise have a job if there wasn't minimum wage laws? Right. Like it is it is it is trickier than it seems. And before everyone hates on me, you know, I just it's I'm with you on the incentive on the intention. But but but as I always say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. And what is the compromise that we are deliberately making? And maybe as a society, that's the choice. We go, you know what? We're happy for there to be far less jobs that are out there. But then if there is a job, you've got to pay that.
Read the full transcript
24:11But again, there's someone else out there who has got to have an enterprise that is profitable enough to do that. And once you start doing that. So I was actually having a chat with a relative the other day. And we were talking about childcare. And back in the day, there was like a lady who lived at the end of the street. And the kids just, you know, we dropped them off there. And that was kind of what it was. and we sort of had a cash in hand kind of array. It was all very beautiful. Again, there's no victim. Where's the victim, right? Kids had this lovely old lady look after them. They had the time of their lives.
24:42She had some extra income. Everyone was fine, right, until we bring in regulations 1 ,000 miles long that the only people that can run a childcare centre now are some big corporate megacorp who's going to screw you over 10 times harder than the little old lady ever did as well. It's sort of like, I don't know if all of these things that were put in place to quote unquote protect people actually had the desired outcome that that they that they did that again a slippery slope here because you'll find examples against the rule and i'm not saying we should have zero regulation but but for every time we try and do something in the name of good and fairness and what's right and what's moral and what's ethical we can only make a proper judgment on the outcome of that by the outcomes and and by contrast to what would otherwise have been the case and it's just not black and white that's all i'm saying Yeah, no, fair enough.
25:32I completely and entirely disagree. That's okay. I think minimum wages is really important. And I think as a society - You don't like people having jobs. That's cool. I get that. I think as a society, we can and should afford to make sure that the least well-off are appropriately supported. I would rather have a minimum wage and a fair and - Fair's not the right word. I'll take that back because it's just too loaded. A reasonable safety net that allows people to live. I don't think as a country - What's reasonable? I'm happy with that distortion. Who decides what's reasonable? In government. Same as they do in every other regulation.
26:03Government decides what's reasonable. Same as every, yeah, speed limit, same thing. Medical procedures, same thing. Because you're not capable to determine what's reasonable for you to do a job? No, because it's not the question. I don't have market power necessarily, so what I'm offered may not be enough to live on. So I have no problem with saying enough to live on. The half of the decision in 1907 is very clear. So we have had a minimum wage system since 1907 based on the idea that a minimum wage should support an unskilled labourer and a family. That was the decision in 1907. I think that's a perfectly reasonable thing for Australia to do.
26:31I see no reason why we should have people working on less than a effectively living wage in a country like ours. If it's a distortion, sign me up. I'm happy with that. I don't just think we need to – we don't need to be efficient in every part of life. I think we can say we know this is going to be a story. We know this is not going to create as much economic value overall, but it's going to create less economic value and look after those people who otherwise wouldn't be earning enough to live on. I don't think that's a difficult decision for me. Provided they're the ones that get the jobs. though, right?
27:00Because there are less jobs. So, you know, the person who gets the job. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. And the example, I mean, there's minimum wage in the States as well, but we know there's, you know, some stupid number of people in America are on food stamps because the minimum wage isn't enough to keep this. So it's effectively charity by another name. So you say, well, it's a lower minimum wage. Yeah, but we top it up with all this stuff anyway. Centralized price controls, man. That's what it is. I'm cool with that. I'm cool with that. But they get it wrong there, right? Would you agree? I think the concept, I'm not talking about the level, I'm talking about the concept of a minimum wage.
27:31So, yeah, I think I do get it wrong there. I think they absolutely are pretending that they can pay less and then topping it up elsewhere. You might as well say, guys, let's not pretend that, let's run around and let's just do a reasonable wage. We don't have food stamps because we have a higher minimum wage. My point is just in broad terms, we know, literally by definition, the fact that it works on minimum wage, other than the most extreme examples, to your point before, means that without it, people would be on less. It's obviously true, right? Otherwise it would be a remarkable coincidence that 20 % of people earn exactly minimal wage and wouldn't get a cent less if we took the regulation away.
28:06So that would be on less if we didn't have it. And if that means businesses make less money, I pay more taxes, I can't find any good, conscionable reason to disagree with it. So I'm okay with minimal wage. But you are still within that framing, hoping that the powers that be set it appropriately. I think, of course. Which you perfectly reasonably could be, but I'm just saying there's plenty of other jurisdictions, First World nations that don't. So it's just, you know, I'm actually just being difficult for the sake of it, honestly, which is what I do. That's what we do. Which is what I do. Me too.
28:41But I find it interesting because it's like whenever you get that scenario, it's kind of like, yeah, it's good, but as long as the decisions that are good And it's something that you can be happy with as a trade-off. And in many situations, I personally am myself. It's just that it's got to – it is such a notoriously difficult balancing act to get right. And there are those unintended consequences. I would argue unintended consequences. We know exactly what it does. We know there is higher unemployment as a result. We're making a very conscious choice to – I mean, we don't intend the exact outcomes or we're happy about them, but we know exactly what's going to happen.
29:21So I think you're right. I agree with you by that. I'm saying it's not even, it's not an unintended, like we don't know. It's like we know and we're doing it deliberately and that's a choice we're making. Yeah, totally. I found it actually, just, this is maybe eight months ago or something now. I don't want to dox it. I certainly don't want to get anyone in trouble. But. But. Everyone's like moving closer to the speaker right now. I was going to say. There was a small business enterprise in my neck of the woods. Right. And they were in the food trade and I ordered some takeaway Our house is Friday night is takeaway night because it's just at that stage of the week.
29:55It's like, I can't cook anymore. I'm done. So it's our little treat. And we go up there and we get there and it's just like the people serving were the kids of the family. And I happen to know one of the kids because they go to school with one of my kids. Oh, such and such. How are you going? And I'm waiting for the food and I was having a little chat to him. And I said, I hope this is all on the books. You put the fear of God on him, haven't you? You know, I can't not stir up a honest mess. And he's gone, nah, it's cash in hand and mum and dad pay me this little bit here. It sounds like you're being exploited.
30:35And he's gone, nah, it's great because the job I get is cash in hand, mum and dad are happy because they don't get, you know, it's like, again, it was hard to find a victim that was there. Yeah. And I said to him, it's like, well, you could get more at Macca's where my boy was working for a little while. He goes, yeah, but I've applied there and they didn't get me the job. So I'm doing this. So again, it's a little bit more complicated, right? Like it's sort of like that story that I tell, I think almost everyone listening will have an experience. And it usually tends to be immigrant kind of families because they're so systemically disadvantaged.
31:13You know, it's like, well, everyone chips in, you know, until some do-good bureaucrat comes, well, actually, you need to have an employment 46B form here, and then you're exploiting your children. It's like, we're just working as a family to try and get ahead here, right? Like, you know, there's different ways of sort of framing it up. And I think when I sort of paint a picture, well, maybe not, but I think when I sort of paint a picture that way, I don't think anyone's going to get too upset with that affair. But if you take away the genetic relationship, oh oh that's different it's almost like what so i so i can exploit my own exploit air quotes my own children i can't exploit do you know what i mean it's sort of like it's just i i i'm really i'm really not super strong on it but it's my my the interesting thing about it is that we we we moralize i i think sometimes to our own detriment and there's a lot of examples i i I can tell you for, so I've had cash in hand jobs throughout my life as well.
32:15I'm sure a lot of people have. And I'm sure plenty of you out there listening have offered people cash in hand to do a job. You evil, evil black marketeers that you are, exploiters. And I'm sure not in all cases that was according to any minimum wage standard as well. It's like, well, that's different. Is it though? Is it? I don't know. And I'm just, I guess I just sort of put it out there that it's sort of sometimes, particularly when we've had, as you say, for a hundred years or something, Now we see things as obvious and inevitable and why wouldn't we? And that's how it's always been. I just don't, I genuinely don't.
32:51I'm not saying, I don't know about that. I don't know. I don't know, but I'm happy to sort of, A, because I like to be difficult, but B, you know, just to push back on what are seen as self-evident truths that once you start picking into, maybe they are still true at the end of the day, but they're not as obviously true as they immediately seem. I think that's totally fair, man. And I think on rent control, what do you think of rent control? You're against or – because I feel as though if you're against – if you're for minimum wage, you have to be for rent control. No, I don't. I'm not. What's the difference?
33:27Largely – well, it gets back to how you define the minimum wage then, right? Because if the minimum wage is sufficient, you don't need rent control. So it's – and this is what I meant about the – Well, just in isolation though. Well, I started that off as well. there's a far bigger broader problems of society. But in that narrow, you said, I'm very strongly in favour of minimum wage laws in the current system. So, yeah. I'm not in favour of rent control. Because I don't... I'm not going to let you wiggle out of this one, Phillips. No, because I don't think that's the right place to solve the problem.
33:56If rent control is an answer to housing is not affordable, rentals aren't affordable, then I would fix it in a different way. I think distorting a private transaction for property is different to making sure people get a minimum. I think I would solve – again, we've got a universal income episode coming up. I think you can solve the vast bulk of the societal problems. Speaking of efficiency and other things we talk about in that episode. Or it actually might be past that because this is a prerecord. I'm not sure. At any point, you might or might have heard it by now. Time's a quiet circle, as I like to say.
34:31Exactly. Exactly. I would, especially in a podcast world, you're probably listening out of order anyway, in which case you don't care anyway. I would solve any of those issues of affordability through wages. So it kind of comes back to that element of, by the way, rent control works nicely in Germany, apparently, and terribly in the US. So it's also probably very cultural, I suspect, depending on whose answer you listen to. Yeah, socialism works better in some countries than others. Right, exactly. It's just cultural and stuff. Yeah, so I wouldn't solve housing affordability with rent control.
35:04So that is kind of my answer. Combination of minimum wage and public housing is how I would solve it. So if they weren't available, if you're not going to fix the minimum wage, you can have no minimum wage, you should have rent control. I mean, you could probably drag me to agreeing with it. If we were saying to people, we're not going to give you enough to live on under whatever combination, so we're going to have to make housing more affordable so you can actually afford to live somewhere. Again, as a society, we either say you're on the street, you're in a tent, or I will find a way to make your housing at least accessible and affordable.
35:33And so you do it either with wages or price caps effectively. So I would deal with – I think, speaking of elegant solutions, the minimum wage is a very, very elegant solution. Just so you know, here's the minimum wage. I mean, the reason I took a harvester, mate, was – and it goes back – I was going to go back to Nathan's question. I won't answer the rest of Nathan's question, but the reason I brought it up was it was assessed – you asked who did it. I said the government, and that was both right and wrong, actually. So Harvester said a minimum wage should be set at a level at which people can afford to support a family is kind of the idea.
36:02And the Fair Work Commission, which is kind of back to the name, is what increased by inflation to maintain effectively the purchasing power of the minimum wage. So we've as a society agreed, and I say we've agreed, you disagree, but you know what I mean? We have instituted a structure or a system where we have a wage that should support the average family and can do so with regard to inflation. And if that's true, you don't need or you shouldn't need rent control, for example, if we've got those settings right. So that's kind of where I start from. If we're saying the market pays what it pays and rent is what it is and the circumstances are what they are, it's not a view I would agree with, but I can understand if you're going to say no to minimum wage, You would say no to rent control on the same basis, which is simply the market will decide and people will either succeed or fail on their own ability to earn a sufficient wage to pay the rent.
36:56So if there was no minimum wage, I would probably not go for rent controls. I would probably go for much larger public housing over rent control. So it would take a lot to drag me to rent control because there are many better, I think, ways of solving for what you're trying to solve for, which is can I afford to put a roof over my head? That's probably not a very satisfying answer to that. I think fundamentally the ideological divide between us is probably best described as you have a bias towards top down and I have a bias towards bottom up. It's probably the best way to frame it. And that doesn't mean that you're absolute and only top down and I'm absolute and bottom up.
37:37But I think as a bias, I err towards bottom up solutions where you prefer top down solutions. You know what? And it's probably the same thing. I'm probably just splitting hairs. I think bottom-up is best and where it doesn't provide the outcomes that we subjectively think. I know 2.2 decides. That's a very good question. But I'll make it about me. Let's say I'm the dictator of the world. I would absolutely go bottom-up. I'm a capitalist, right? Let prices decide where I feel like the market. No, no, no. So let me finish. If I feel like we – so we do that, right? And we say, right, where did we finish up?
38:09Right here. Okay. Can John afford to feed his family? No, he can't. All right. We either A, let it go. b provide some sort of government handout or c provide a minimum wage that allows him that allows him to do that they're our choices at that point and so i would like like with most things i'm probably more interventionist than you are absolutely but i would i would say that a market failure is the wrong phrase because it's not a failure of the market but where the outcome where the market outcomes aren't optimum based on a range of uh desired outcomes then i would intervene so i am more interventionist than you are for sure i wouldn't say i'm top down um i mean it's It's all definitions and we can argue about it.
38:45It's not really that big a deal. I would start with bottom up and I would fill in the holes rather than mandating the size of the hole, if that makes sense. I know it kind of feels like the same thing, but I think it's important because I absolutely believe in letting competition do its thing. And then, for example, intervening where competition isn't working. Okay, again, referee on the field, rules of the game. That's kind of where I'm at, right? It's like, okay, you did that. That worked. You get paid$800 a month. Turns out you need$2 ,000 a month to live. either we say sucks of you or we say we will, with a range of outcomes, intervene to bring you up to a level that we think is a decent standard of living.
39:19And I just think minimum wage is the easiest way to do that. Frankly, back for what it's worth, if we said, back to UBI a little bit, I would be okay with a system which said no minimum wage, but we will top up any salary to a minimum amount through taxpayer funds and tax rather than make businesses pay it, if that's what we've decided to do. But then no business is paying more than three cents an hour, right? Well, that's the thing, right? But that's kind of the world we're in. So it's kind of – or you – because the other alternative is sucks to be you, good luck making do. And even the Yankster do that.
39:49They say, well, he's a minimum wage, but we'll throw in food stamps and we'll throw in this and we'll throw in that. I think the evidence is if we believe that a living wage is what it is, i.e. the ability to support a family, and you're not being paid that much, you can't support the family, so you're in the poor house or relying on charity, or we say we will step in to make it okay. So why not under that? I agree, actually. The way you've laid it out is nice. So in doing it that way, I would say no minimum wage. Whatever you feel will attract the necessary labor and talent that you need for the job.
40:23If someone out there is happy to accept it, it's great. And then we top it up with a more broad-based welfare system. Like, why not? Your point is I won't pay any money, though. So I think your criticism or your challenge was fair. But, yeah, I'm very happy. If we thought we're just working on a go, beauty, I'll pay you nothing, government's going to pick up the tab, which is probably what happens. But otherwise I agree with you. I'm not about minimum wage. I'm about the household receiving sufficient income to support a family and whatever. That's as a starting point. People assume if you're against minimum wage that it's just like you're pro-poor.
40:55You don't care about the results. No, I'm not. Or like was it a discussion on hard money? Oh, you're anti-well. I was like, why? they're completely compatible if you want to go that way it's yeah it's it's a false dichotomy and so yes and so i really just before everyone listening to this podcast thinks i'm an absolute soul as evil wants to like make kids work in salt mines i don't i don't at all but it's just like again that price that price mechanism super super powerful right and i i just feel if if there are two people that are happy to have made an agreement and happy to do it and no one is being forced against their will, and you know what I mean, then why am I going to get in the way of that?
41:34Now, if it turns out that you do all of that and it's still like you can't put a roof over your head, am I anti-welfare? My God, no, I'm not. I'm anti-buggering around with market prices in the name of fairness, equality, equity, whatever word you want to use, when we know without any doubt at this point in time that there's a whole range of very difficult to foresee second, third order unintended consequences where sometimes the medicine's worse than the disease, right? And it's sort of like just by saying, too often I come across the argument and it seems to be it's like the only way that people win it is by saying, I'm a more feeling, caring person than you, therefore I win.
42:24I better than you. you know it's like well you're not because what you're actually arguing for on an aggregate you can everyone can point to an example to prove anything but on an aggregate basis if we like again the the argument would be on an aggregate basis there's just far far fewer jobs and there's far fewer jobs it's been there's far few businesses that are profitable at certain levels so there's far less economic activity and value creation and people following their dreams and working hard to get ahead than there otherwise would be because of minimum wage laws but it means that there's less poor people so are there less poor people i don't know like you're asserting that and it's like oh but it's evil otherwise well is it what we what there's no other option that we could we couldn't plug to your exact point we couldn't plug that hole in in a far more straightforward clean way that doesn't distort all of these signaling mechanisms and again not because i just everything should be hyper efficient i just i just think i'm free to choose there's a more efficient solution.
43:22The more efficient solution is always that for a given outcome, you always choose the more efficient way of getting there. That is logically and absolutely always true. Here's the other thing. Words are funny, right? No one's against internships. No one's against work experience. What's that? That's slave labor. You don't get paid. You do not get paid for an internship. I did work experience in year 10. Kids do it. Now you don't get paid for it. Is that exploitation? Oh no, it's great because you're learning skills and you're do-do-do-do. It's We use a different word. It's a little bit different, right?
43:52Just because someone's going to ask it, I just looked it up. It's actually illegal to have unpaid internships in Australia. Work experience is okay and unpaid internships. Oh, that's changed then. Yeah. This is from the Fair Work Ombudsman. Again, not to correct you just because someone's going to yell at the pod machine. The point stands. Totally. Work experience stuff is totally. By the way, the other option, I don't want to open this necessarily, but I will because it's interesting. Given we've talked a lot about housing, including in an episode that we recorded, that we published, was our longest episode on the 12th of June.
44:18Which is a record that we had broken every week. Because excessive weeks in Trapperconshire. I'm not entirely sure. We'll find out. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.
44:34We talked about housing and kind of the role of housing in incomes, right, or expenses. And the other possible I've heard is suggested. I haven't looked or thought super deeply about this, but it rings. It bears some thinking. You're talking about, you know, engagement. We are going to distort the market somehow by supporting someone who can't support themselves. A welfare payment is a distortion. It's just a different type of one. And one option would be actually just to flood the market with public housing. Yep. Because if you're either at really cheap prices at no profit or at a subsidised level, which is kind of a quasi-rent control, but to your point about how do you fix the – businesses pay what they pay whatever they want to pay.
45:08If housing is – if rent is$200 a week rather than$800 a week, then that fixes the livability question rather than need to do it with wages potentially. And I don't really have a strong view of which one of those is better, whether it's a welfare top-up, a minimum wage, or public housing, I'm sure there's others. But, yeah, they are very different ways of addressing the same sort of problem. Yeah. Potentially. Not that we should understand. No, not that we should, but it's just like you'd always be careful when we say when we do, we flood the market, who's we? I assume the government. And then if you mean the government, it's like, well, who?
45:39Someone's got to build it, right? Like the government doesn't employ people. Not necessarily building, you can just buy it. Right. With what's money? Tax money. Right. So it's us then. But it's all us, right? It's either the business or it's a taxpayer pay-off fee. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I'm never going to let that opportunity slide and not make that point because too many people think when they say the government should, it's just like this free unlimited money. Well, I guess in a way it is. But it is like we can choose to do that, but it's like we are still subject to the scarcity of resources and the coordination, all of that kind of stuff.
46:13And it just assumes that the government can go and do it and they can somehow do it at a far, far cheaper price than they really should. They've just never been able to demonstrate that ever. So maybe it's not something to hang your hat on. I'm being silly on your example, but it is sort of like that example. There's a lot of examples that get thrown out like that, but there's a little implicit sort of assumption in that that actually all of that could be delivered in a way that was actually better than what we're already doing. And I don't know if it's always true. No, I'm not sure though. But my point is that if we start with people should be able to afford to live, you either reduce their costs or you increase the incomes they receive and those incomes are either reduce it or not either.
46:50Three options, I think. Reducing housing costs, increasing the minimum wage or providing some sort of supplementary welfare payment to top up the incomes. Just quickly on Nathan's points too, mate. We'll try and move on. But Nathan, I looked it up actually, mate. Stop asking interesting stuff. Well, he did say there'd be lots of rants. Interestingly enough, the minimum wage has actually fallen as a proportion or a percentage of the median wage. So, in the context you were sort of saying, Nathan, your view of things were getting squeezed between the low incomes and higher incomes. The evidence per Google Gemini, so again, I haven't looked at the sources, so take it as read.
47:27In the 80s, apparently, the minimum wage was about 65 % to 70 % of the median wage. In 2026, roughly 55 % to 60 % of the national median wage, which I don't say is either good or bad necessarily. But you made the point, Nathan, I think that it was kind of compressing. I don't think that's the – the evidence seems to be not – that that's not the case. for what it's worth. So maybe your experience is different, Nathan, and like everything we say all the time, averages and totals are indicative and interesting. They're not every job, every industry, and every geography, but that seems to be the number.
47:55So maybe the assumption you're making might not be spot on. In terms of the immigration thing, we are absolutely, I should say absolutely, I think it's reasonable to assume that wages are lower because of high immigration than we'd be without that immigration. You talk about market price all the time, Ram. If we didn't have people say, who's going to wipe the bums of the people in the nursing homes? Who's going to drive the taxis? All the usual kind of tropes that we drag out. The answer will be the person who has offered enough money to go and do that job. So at some level, you know, if we are bringing people into the country, and I want to be really careful not using any of this pejorative stuff.
48:30I'm using them accidentally, mate, call me out and I'm bringing people in. I think it's okay. If people are coming to the country, and as you mentioned, Nathan, they're prepared to work for less because it's, you know, less than me is more than what they were getting somewhere else, so they're prepared to do my job for less. I don't blame them, but I suspect it's probably reasonably true. If we didn't have immigrant nurses and pick your other industry, it doesn't really matter, who would do those jobs? The people who were paid enough to do the nursing degrees and do the jobs is the answer. And so, honestly, wages would be higher, and yes, that would cause inflation, that would cause wage inflation, and there would be absolutely consequences to all that stuff.
49:02But I think you're right. I think you're absolutely right. I would say almost unchallengeably right. I'm not going to say absolutely because who knows, but it seems obvious and likely. Well, it seems likely, right? You've got to disagree.
49:16Well, some parts of it, yeah. I mean, you say it's obviously inflationary and all of that kind of stuff. Again, they're - Having to - If you had to pay more for the same job, you'd put pressure on prices, surely? Put pressure on that price. Yeah, yeah. But then - Price of pencils and Teslas? I don't know. I don't see how the price of a nursing - The average wage for Australia would be higher under that scenario. And if that was true, I don't see how paying people more, unless it came out of profits and companies made less, which is the other alternative. I don't see how it would not cause prices to be higher.
49:51Now, maybe not in the long term. But you're going to be circular though, right? You're paying more and receiving more too. Which side of the ledger are you talking about? If you give every nurse 20 grand more because you have to employ Australian nurses rather than English nurses who come across to do the same job and nothing else changes because you need the nurses. You're not producing more. you're just having to pay a smaller workforce or a less large than would otherwise be the case workforce. We're redirecting capital. Yeah, absolutely. We're redirecting capital. It's only a higher price because it's the government who pays the bill and the government pays it with debt and printing.
50:18That's the inflationary part. Okay. So put aside the monetarist version of inflation. The real version? Okay. Is it not likely slash almost certain that if the same pool of workers were paid more next year than this year, that prices would be higher because supply wouldn't respond as quickly? I think that doesn't seem controversial. Yeah, yeah, that's true so so let's let's follow it through so it's just like why are we paying nurses more because all of a sudden hospitals feel generous no they can't get the staff so supply and demand i'll pay you more okay and they'll keep doing it until the point that they can get enough staff and then and then the that we will we will reach some form of temporary equilibrium right um and and and at some point the nurses they're doing their job and they go wait a second it turns out that if i work for the fire department, I can get three times as much.
51:05Why this is much more of a demand, I'll switch over there. That's why all of this stuff is so super important, right? Because it's actually rather, it's the invisible hand argument. All it's just saying is that there's nothing wrong with paying people more if that's what needs to be done to satisfy that particular demand. I need nurses, all right? I guess I'm paying more. And fine, all that means is that we need more nurses, until the point at which we don't, until the point that it actually turns out that podcasters are in more demand and we need to pay them more. Absolutely. I completely agree.
51:40Do you know? Let's pay nurses more. Yeah. It's complicated, but you're right in a narrow sense that, yes, it puts up prices and that, but it's not like, that's why I think it's important to have a thorough, proper understanding of what inflation is. Inflation isn't prices going up for one particular area. It's just not. Oh, we keep arguing the pedantics. We'll move on. Because I think when we have different definitions, neither is necessarily right. It's just my definition is one and yours is just another one. And neither is right or wrong. It's just a question of how you choose to measure it, what you choose to call it.
52:12Okay. So next Boxing Day sale, we're going to talk about deflation. Only if the price are lower than they were the previous year. And then we absolutely can do, yeah. Okay. Yeah, totally. If I get the TV for$100 and it was$150 last year, then price is deflated. Absolutely. I completely agree. okay alright let's move on TBC TBC TBC what was the we'll come back to it what else do I think that was it for Nathan's question population minimum wage yeah I think we've done so hopefully hopefully I don't know hopefully it answers your question it doesn't hopefully we've addressed your question in a way that was at least useful Nick says hi it's Scott and Ram first time listener first time sorry long time listener first time emailer that's good for years I have walked among ordinary investors, the lost, the leveraged, the perpetually wrong.
53:00But it was your wisdom that finally parted the clouds and revealed the path to financial enlightenment. Where lesser minds see noise, you see signals. Where the masses panic, you sip your coffee and calmly identify the next 10 bagger. He doesn't know this. We actually are mostly drinking coffee with this podcast. That's pretty right. The market does not move you. You move the market and it thanks you for the privilege. That's Chuck Norris, actually. Poor Vale. I like Chuck Norris. Maybe the old Chuck Norris jokes. They were always good. They're the best jokes. The best. You moved the market. Thanks you for the privilege.
53:33Very Chuck Norris. I am convinced that somewhere on the floor of the ASX, there is a small shrine in your honour, attended nightly by grateful index funds. It is in the spirit of boundless gratitude and only slightly diminished composure that I write to you today. I am one of those bastards. Yes, you are, Nick. Coming up on the big 3-0. How much would you give for 20 more years, mate? Anything. Everything. It just feels like yesterday and then I do the best. Oh, no. I don't get so depressed about it though, right? Because I was just like, I know that in 10 years' time, I would also give everything to be 50.
54:14I've used this line, Mal Leyland of the Leyland Brothers. I've mentioned this on the podcast. One of his lines is, you'll never be as young as you are today. Yeah, it's a great line. Which is a nice one. Brilliant. All right. Having nearly listened from the start, you two have set me on a great path to staying the course. I decided a few years ago to stop stock picking and go fishing. So I sold out all the positions and bought a broad-based ETF or two to see me through. And yes, that did include selling a large portion of NVIDIA stock in 2019. Oh, at least the fish tasted nice, says Nick. Thank you, mate.
54:44It's very kind of you to not throw things at us. Thank you. Thankfully for me, the market has been very strong and a nice nest egg has built up. I am now at a point where my portfolio would be a great starting point on a house deposit. I just have that nagging word in the back of my head, compounding. I know if I continue to dollar cost average into our portfolio, it'll be massive, in brackets hopefully, later in our lives. So my question for the both of you is, how do you handle the opportunity cost of housing versus shares? I remember Ram's many rants on the rental market. Does it purely come down to a lifestyle decision between my wife and I?
55:21Or are there other issues that I may be missing between financial security and housing security? I know from discussions with my mates, there's a real worry with our generation. Hopefully the question helps shed some light for the younger audience as the Friday and Sunday are appointment listening in our household. Well, for me anyway, I'm still baffled my wife isn't as keen to listen to you two middle-aged white guys talk about finance. Thanks, Nick. Thanks for all the guidance over the years. You're like white guys have the answers to everything. Don't you know that? Sit down and let me tell you about it.
55:48Let me tell you why you're wrong. Let me mansplain exactly why. Give me a chair at the end of the Christmas table. Give me a couple of bottles of beer and a couple of glasses of wine and I will explain the world to you, Nick. I shall hold court, as I like to say. Exactly, exactly. How's it shooting us to finish security? Two minutes before our hard finish. Were you aware of that? You weren't, were you? Well, we were seven minutes out of originally. I was like, if we cut it off really, really short, it feels too short. If it goes too long, we're in trouble. I'm going to do a radio interview after this is the pulling back the curtain answer to this one.
56:19So you've got three minutes, Ram, go. Yeah, I mean, it makes an immense amount of sense on paper because you will all just relying on averages, you know, you'll probably get a better return. The two things that will throw you would be the degree of leverage that you can have on housing that you can't comfortably have on shares, which is a disadvantage for the share side of things. And the other one is what I've ranted about long and hard is that where theory crashes into reality is when you get kicked out of your house every 12 to 18 months because they can. And that throws out a lot. Once you've got all the moving costs and the emotional burden and the fact that you've got to have, you know, black mold in your lungs and ovens that don't work and all of this kind of stuff, it changes the calculus very quickly.
57:07So in spreadsheet land is one thing. I know other friends of mine who have rented from the same landlord for eight years in a row. They've got a wonderful relationship. They're absolute brilliant. Two-sided relationship. Everyone's sort of winning. So it depends on your – if you can find something like that, stick with it. If you can't, then don't. And I don't know which path is going to be the one that you're on. So that's a completely unhelpful answer. There you go. I'm going to do a ram and say, well, not both, Nick.
57:39maybe you can't do both. Maybe the housing is all you can do and including repayments for the next 30 years. And in that circumstance, I'm back with Ram. Very likely for a 30-year-old. Right. So it's brutal, Nick. Compounding on shares will almost certainly do better than housing over the next 30 years, I suspect. I don't know how it can't for the maths that Ram's talked about before. So stick with that as an idea. And I think you're in a pretty good place generally. really. The question on how we think about the difference for me is I've just talked before about mortgages for saving, which is really useful.
58:16So it means you can't skimp on the shares if in one month you want to spend on something else. Like, well, I've got to pay the mortgage, honey. Let's go and do that, which is really, really useful, I think, because in 30s, you will own a place outright and they can't take it away from you. It's going to be worth something. And there's financial security as well as housing security in that alone nick um so that that's a that's a benefit uh and rev's point about moving regularly is i haven't had to i've owned my place for quite a few years now and um i don't miss having to move every time a landlord changed or the rent went up or something else happened so i don't blame you mate also depends on what you do with the family and you know so your wife and i if you're gonna have kids if there's other stuff going on then you'll want a place i suspect um the one thing i will say and why i probably would lean towards the house actually, weirdly enough for me, is if you decide, I don't know what's going to happen with house prices, but if house prices grow faster than your ability to save, then you're kind of getting further and further behind the eight balls, it gets further away from you.
59:08Now, if it doesn't, you're no worse off because you bought. If it does, you're chasing something that's getting further away with every step. You move one step, you move 1.1 steps and you get further and further away. Unless you can compile that deposit faster than house prices rise, proportionally with the leverage we have talked about, then you're going backwards and that's always going to be a challenge. So I think that's probably the biggest issue you're going to have to deal with. Yeah, we can't help you, mate, but hopefully that's some stuff to think about. That was 4BC. I'm going to take that call.
59:34And that's all. We speak on Friday. Fool on. Cheers. The Motley Fool and people appearing in this program may have positions in the companies mentioned. General advice only. Please speak to your financial professional to understand how it may pertain to your situation. Subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener. The Motley Fool operates under Financial Services Licence 400691.
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