Mailbag: incl. How many banks should I own? August 27, 2023

26 Aug 2023 · 1 h 5 min

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Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money - Mailbag Edition (August 27, 2023)

Podcast Overview Title: Motley Fool Money Description: A candid and insightful overview of finance and investing news, featuring Scott Phillips and Andrew Page, aimed at providing listeners with clear and practical financial advice.

Episode Title Mailbag: incl. How many banks should I own?

Episode Summary In this episode, Scott Phillips and Andrew Page tackle questions from a listener named Louis, focusing on bank investments, auditing, the tech landscape, and stock selection strategies in the rapidly evolving market.

Episode Highlights

  1. Listener Questions and Responses
  2. Bank Exposure: Louis asks how much exposure one should have to banks given their historical performance.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Discussion about the performance of major Australian banks (e.g., NAB, Westpac, CBA).
  5. Phillips and Page note that the last decade has seen mediocre growth for these banks and caution against overexposure.
  6. Importance of evaluating the cyclical nature of banking and potential risks in economic downturns.
  • Value of Audit Reports: Louis inquires about the reliability of auditor statements in general purpose financial reports.
  • Key Points:
  • Phillips expresses skepticism about the true value of auditors, emphasizing that while they are a necessary part of corporate governance, they do not guarantee the absence of financial issues.
  • Recommendations to consider the reputation of auditors and the importance of independent verification.
  1. Stock Picking in Tech
  2. Navigating the Tech Landscape: Louis asks how to approach stock picking in an industry characterized by rapid innovation.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Page advocates for investing in technologies that become deeply integrated into customer workflows, making them hard to replace.
  5. Emphasis on looking for niche markets that are overlooked by larger players (e.g., Google, Microsoft) and focusing on companies with proprietary data.
  1. Network Effects and Competition
  2. Evaluating Incumbents vs. Upstarts: Louis seeks guidance on how to quantify the competitive edge of established companies against newer entrants.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Page stresses the importance of monitoring customer growth and retention rates, as well as recognizing potential market disruption.
  5. He suggests that while established companies often dominate, emerging players can capture significant market share if they demonstrate strong growth metrics.

Key Takeaways

  • Bank Investments: Investors should be cautious about their bank holdings, as historical performance may not indicate future returns.
  • Audit Reliability: While auditors provide some assurance, they are not infallible. Investors should conduct additional due diligence.
  • Tech Investments: Focus on companies that are integral to business operations and those occupying niche markets where disruption is less likely.
  • Monitoring Competition: Pay attention to customer growth trends and other metrics that indicate the health of both incumbents and challengers.

Final Thoughts The episode underscores the importance of critical thinking in investment choices—whether evaluating bank stocks, the reliability of audits, or the fast-paced tech sector. Listeners are encouraged to assess risks carefully and remain informed about market dynamics.

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Transcript

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0:09Welcome to Motley Fool Money, our very special Sunday Mailbag edition. I am Scott Phillips He is The straw man himself Andrew Josiah Page How are you Ram? It's a big pregnant pause I was trying to I was trying to Work out what Middle name to give you I thought Josiah I'd go with that I was bracing myself Could have been Could have been a lot worse Surprisingly again Like the rest of this podcast I hadn't planned that I just thought What do I do It just struck me that I should give you a middle name So I did Okay fair enough Fair enough I'll roll with that sounds good hey mate how's your weekend been i'll let you know when it's when it's coming you're up early you're out of bed you're doing the podcast actually i tell you before i did i did two earlier than wished for starts this week he's a friend of mine he'd been in france for five weeks visiting his family he says he asked for the pickup you know it's like a lot of brownie points in an airport pickup right true true you know um anyway when are you coming back tuesday Okay, what time?

1:15Send us your flight number. Yep, sweet. Got there to the airport. No sign of him. Can't get through. What's going on? Check the flight number. Yeah, it's landed, landed. And it was actually, it was Wednesday. Oh, no. That's today, by the way, too, where we were recording this. Is that you telling me that's what you're going to be asleep here by the end of the podcast? Give it up so early. I am not going to make it, but it's just sort of like, not only did I have to do it once, I had to do it twice. How did you find out? Like, I was thinking at the airport. How do you know? I mean, I'm trying to think about if I'm going to pick a mate up or a family member, when do you call it off and go home?

1:47It's almost like he's been taking immigration detention or something weird's going on. I kind of can't leave, but he's not here. Do you know when you use like one of these messaging apps, so I was using Signal, but same with WhatsApp. You actually know if the message is delivered or not. And it wasn't delivered. Then I called and it went straight to things. I was like, oh, he's still in the air, but it says it's landed. Now, this is a way big tangent here, but obviously they use the same flight numbers for different days, right? Yeah, it's like flight, whatever it was. and so I was like no I can see it's landed and then I just actually realized when I scrolled because he sent a screenshot of something else and when I looked at the pinched in and zoomed it was like oh tomorrow you idiot here's where I'll try and save this boring anecdote and make it relevant to investing so this is at Sydney airport and you've got a 15 minute public pickup at the international terminal so I go okay and you know my mate's not there And after that first 15 minutes, like it goes up a lot, right?

2:48And so I thought, well, I'm going to leave. I'm going to drive around and I'll come back and I'll just keep doing that because I am not paying whatever ridiculous fee you're going to ask me. So I did that and long story short, they scan your number plate. So they've worked that one out. And by the way, it was half empty, the car park. and I was saying to you before, it's like this has got to be the better part of their business. Oh, absolutely. It's literally a parking lot. It's like asphalt and some paint, you know, maybe some boom gates, you know. And the amount of money that you make on it, it's like all I can say is investors, it's good to be a monopoly.

3:31It is really good to be a monopoly. We could rant about privatizations too and a whole lot of other things. We'll save that for another day. But yes, it's a nice thing when you need the government to sell that monopoly to somebody, take the one off cash, use it for an election promise and then make mugs like us pay every single day thereafter. It's got to go wash hands and say, oh, some previous government made this decision. Now we're stuck with. So I fly to the Gold Coast for work about once a month these days. And I park at the parking area at the airport. $156 for not even for 36 hours at the airport it is speaking of extortion now the fool's paying for it so thank you boss if you're listening but it's just it is I mean I could probably get there by training and stuff but it would take from my place three hours each way I reckon I could pay someone to piggyback the airport and back there's a new gig economy idea mate piggybacks to the airport heard it here first straw man's going to branch out some diversification I know there's an online portal for members sharing their ideas about stocks it's also an airport piggyback delivery service I like it mate you heard it here I'm going to raise some seed funding for that two million dollar valuation there's straw man there's a straw that breaks camel's back someone piggybacking there's something you can do with that it writes itself I'm not sure what exactly should we get on with it yeah let's do it alright hey I got a question from Louis who finishes by saying two questions in a non-anonymous format maybe for the same day maybe different days maybe not relevant at all thank you Louis we will make them today we won't make it anonymous because you didn't ask me to which is great and we're going to answer them both he says dear Scott and Rant in brackets the two legends of the pod machine they like it Rant I keep telling you they like it getting the formalities out of the way straw man what is it says Louis well you actually I don't know if you realise you tripped up just a moment ago I was going to ask the question I had Louis Christian in the back of my head that's why I let you think you get away with it you're thinking he's moving on it's going to be okay when i do that when you were talking about the my my brilliant startup idea you kind of just you you you kind of described what straw man was well i know kind of roughly what it does but i can't ever quite remember what specifically it is you know people on a website doing some talk about stocks i get but like i don't know how to kind of encapsulate that in like four words that really kind of grabs the the sense of you know how how publicly available it is or whether it's a real thing or on the internet i don't know i guess it's about investing and it feels like a you know a group a a a den a collection of people i just can't quite get the words out yeah yeah it's a private online investment see there you go you're welcome louis again he says thanks to you both many of my economic and philosophical thoughts are provoked from the pod our apologies please keep up the good work he says i feel like i learn something valuable each week hopefully these questions provoke some good discussion and we can all get some valuable learnings.

6:27Louis, you've raised the bar and that's definitely a bad idea with us. Just try and assume maybe it might be entertaining a little bit and you might not hate it. Anything from there is upside. Question one from Louis. I love this. I recently met an old sugar cane farmer, he says, through a friend. I love meeting these old blokes from the country. They seem to have a refreshing view of many things. We talked about many different things over a few jars. Portfolio design was one of them. He wasn't far from retiring and he achieved this by buying the big four bank stocks and snowballing the dividends.

6:58This has worked for him and his generation, but it did not make sense even though he advocated that I do it. When you listen to many finance commentators in Australia, many recommend having banks as part of their portfolios. How much exposure should we have to banks? He says, should we have any? And then Louis says, my research, NAB, same price as 2001. ANZ, same price as 2005. CBA, this is in brackets, Commonwealth Bank. I know you love tickers. Big outlier, 212 % growth since 2005. Westpac, same price as late 2005 and 2006, and between 4 % and 6 % dividends. Macquarie Group, he says, not a big four, but relevant.

7:41272 % growth since 2005, a 4 % dividend, and lots of growth since COVID. I know that past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but based on the above, there would be no value in purchasing three of those banks. Considering the time value of money, you've made no money, even when accounting for dividends. Love to hear your thoughts on this. Now, we talked about this a little bit on Friday, mate. We talked about the banks, where they've been, where they're going, what the future might look like. I was just going to say, go to Friday's episode because we really did touch on it. Except that he does then say, how much exposure should we have to banks?

8:19And should we have any? So that's a different story because as we all know, the last, well, we've talked about it. For three of those five, three of the big four, the last decade, decade and a half has not been great. But that may be an opportunity. We've looked at share price before and said, gee, it's a low share price. Might be a great time to buy. is there is there a reason to buy any or all or some or none of those banks and if so how much of each uh it's look it it depends um i can only speak through my own lens and you know i wouldn't buy i wouldn't buy with your own something oh yeah you go okay i just me and people will tell me why let's let's let the case out so i i think it's always worth understanding it's always worth doing a post-mortem not just on investments that don't work out but investments that do work out like what happened there i think it's it's interesting to understand because it provides valuable lessons for the future if i can spot various patterns that worked in the past maybe that's something to look out for in the future i don't know and when you look at the banks you banking this is going to be really heretical to australian ears but banking is a pretty tough business and it's it's actually a pretty cyclical business um we just haven't had a recession in 30 odd years not a serious one and um yeah and um we've also had this massive property boom it's going to use another b word there um uh and and and we've also so we've had massive financial deregulation we've had the rise of the two-income household like that is i can't stress enough i don't think that gets enough airplay is how significant that was huge uh in in in in what has helped the banks between the late 90s and the mid-teens has been every man woman and child on the planet and the in the country leveraging up to the eyeballs and buying property right like It's just facts.

10:28It's just like, don't at me on social media. That's a fact. It's what we did, right? And you can see that in any metric you care to sort of look at. And that has been – and there's been nothing to sort of reset things there, as you might expect during a recession, which tends to sort of, you know, at least historically, every sort of a seven-year kind of thing. We just haven't had one, right? So you've also had – oh, gosh, there's a whole range of different sort of structural factors, but factors that I think are unlikely to be repeated, or the big one, of course, I have to mention, was the decline in interest rates from mid-teen levels down to zero.

11:03Huge. So that's hard to repeat. And we should say mid-teens wasn't the historical average. It was the peak in the 1990s. But over time, the average is probably closer to 5 % to 7%. And over the last 30 years since the early 90s, we've effectively seen a slow, consistent fall. There was a bump up, I think, around 06%, 07%. But the average of the last 30 years is much, much, much lower, as we said last week, than the average of, say, the 10, 15, 20 years before that. If you were a bank CEO and you found a lamp and you rubbed it and a genie came out, you would say, I want this and I want that and I want that.

11:41And that would just – That would be the Australian economy. Again, you play the cards you're dealt and good on them, right? Like they just had – it's hard to imagine any other set of more favorable circumstances that could happen. So for the generation that invested in those times, in those kinds of companies, they did insanely well in any of the big banks. Commonwealth Bank was absolutely the standard. It's the star-performing bank. But you can pick all of them, right? And by the way, CBA is a star-performing bank for a few reasons, but it's also not coincidental. It's got the largest proportion of its business in mortgages.

12:15So is it well run? 70%, 80 % something? Yeah, I didn't think it was that high, but it might be. Is it well run? Yes, have they done a great job with technology? Yes. Was it the biggest bank already with national coverage and a formerly government-owned bank? Yes. Had lots of advantages. But when you have a housing boom and you have the greatest proportion of loans in housing of any of the big four banks, it doesn't take all that much to be ahead of the pack. Now, by that much, probably not. As I said, there's other reasons, but it's a pretty good starting point. So you have this entire generation of investors who – and I don't want to take anything away, right?

12:50Like they did well. I think multi-year long-term attractive compounding returns are earned. Like it's hard to hold and not quote unquote take profits. And there is a lot of investors that just did. I could have sold at this peak and tried to time that and tried to do all that. They didn't. They bought and they held. And there are wonderful companies that performed wonderfully well in wonderful conditions. And like made like insane amounts of money. It's just incredible. But as has been pointed out just then, over the last 10 years, I mean, it's been a tale of woe. I don't have the chart that will do total returns for me.

13:34But, you know, 33 % down on Westpac, 17 % down on ANZ, NAB down 10 % on share prices over 10. You can blame the market for being a bit irrational short term, but that is a long period of time. And here's the rub, right? We still didn't have a recession in that. And by the way, the sideways action was still before COVID on that. And by the way, COVID, no one missed their mortgage price. And we've seen what's happened to property prices since. So it's sort of like nothing has gone wrong. And yet, and yet, even in those conditions, they haven't gone ahead. So I feel as though we have an unusual, albeit long period of time, which we now reference as normal and that that will mean revert and that banks in Australia will always perform as it did over that two decade period through to say about 2016, 2015 or so.

14:33And I don't think that's a reasonable case. and I would be of a different mind if we were going to be having a chat

14:44and these prices were much lower where I could account for perhaps a little bit of a wobble. And again, it's not saying that next year everything's going to fall over and next six months we're having a recession or the property bubble is going to burst or anything like that. But it's just like, I don't think it's an unreasonable thing for me as a long-term investor to say that we might have a recession at some point over the next five to seven, 10 years. Like that's just probably prudent, a safe assumption to make because historically that tends to be true. And if that does happen, I'm going to think it's going to be very hard for them to grow their loan books.

15:15I'm sure that they have to suffer a lot of write downs. Westpac nearly went out of business, I mentioned on Friday in the 90s. We forget that. We forget that. We've had three massive, we've had the three biggest US bank failures in history. Oh, sorry. Yeah, something like that. Three out of the four biggest bank values in history in the US happened earlier this year. It happens. And you are in a situation with the way things are priced now that if everything goes perfectly, I might get an okay return. If it doesn't, I'm not saying I will, but if it doesn't, there's a lot of downside. And as you know, Scott, one of my favorite words is asymmetrical.

15:53Oh, I'll just know that too. Not just me. And here is an asymmetry that is not in your favor. heads you lose a lot tails I win a little bit and I'm not taking that bet so no way for me no way now at some point I don't know when or for what reason or how we will have a recession the banks will have to recapitalize we'll probably throw all this public money at them as we do it'll be completely egregious uh I'll be back in the truck up I'll be the first one there with my wheelbarrow Well, I also said on Friday that I never do what I say I'm going to do. It's harder said than done. But that is the time because they're not going away, right?

16:38I'm pretty sure that Commonwealth Bank will be around for a while. Let's not have talk about Bitcoin just yet. But, you know, I think it's a reasonable proposition. I want to buy it where I have very favorable asymmetry. And I've been banging on this about for years now. I actually think, you know, a little victory lap here. I feel as though I've been vindicated over the last couple of years because it has been, demonstrably, it's been a terrible investment over the last five years, 10 years. And I don't see it getting any better. That was a long rant. It was a long rant. I'm going to take it from a very different perspective.

17:11So I will say, by the way, I am curious as to your thoughts because, so if you look at Westpac, for example, I just pulled it up on ComSecrets of my brokerage. I was pulling using their numbers. I haven't done deep research. Now, one thing, 10 years ago, profits of about$2.20 or so from the look of it. Last year, profits of about$1.80. Those profits have fallen over that time. So it's not even a share price thing, right? It's a fundamental decline. Well, this is the other thing that I was going to say, right? So book value has gone from$14.95 from the look of it in 2013 to a touch over$20 today.

17:47The share price is$21.22. two now the general when people talk about insurers and banks you say buy it buy it book value one and sell the book value of two you know the idea that if you're buying the assets for what they're worth then you get the upside from the use of those assets over time i'm curious i and i think what i what i wanted to draw from that example is the book value of westpac's gone reasonably slowly and steadily from 15 to 20 something ish there's a really rough numbers i don't really matter it's hard to do on radio when you're on audio um so there's that right over that same period as you've already talked about the share price went from what 20 32 down to 20 now i'm i'm gonna i'm gonna at least for the sake of being a devil's advocate i don't know that i'd believe this but i don't know i don't believe this so i'm being devil's advocate the the market has already realized what you're saying which is the future won't look like the past uh we're not going to pay you know we were paying 30 for a 50 dollars of book value 10 years ago now we're paying 22 21 for$20 worth of book value.

18:44That adjustment's been made. From this point, you are getting to some degree, you know, you're paying for the assets themselves and you're getting whatever earnings yield from those assets happen to come through. The PE for Westpac, I get on the current level of earnings, which are, you know, we've just talked on Friday about the fact that rising bad debts, but you're paying 11 times earnings. Aside from the very real, I think small but real, you may disagree chance of you know collapse or massive recapitalization how much how much cheaper would they need to get to be at least fair value given their attempt to form the share price assume trading under book value at some point surely that becomes attractive just in and of itself such a great point and that's and that's a pretty good rule of thumb um but remember that so what let's define things here so what is book value book value is just the net asset so we take all of our assets and we subtract all of our liabilities.

19:40So for a bank, your loan is their asset. Yes. And your deposit is their liability. Yeah. Just not really messing it up. They created money out of thin air, how fractional reserve banking works, right? They put it into the bank account of the person that you bought the house from. And in return, they've got a promise from you, hand on heart, I promise, I work very hard over the next 30 years and I will pay you a significant part of my income. Yes. I'm providing annuity. That's an asset. I don't want to delegitimize it. It's a total asset, right? Yeah. But the asset is you, is your promise. And the security for the loan.

20:19Yes, good point. Okay, so excellent point. Okay, so let's say things defined here. So I just so happen to have – I'm going to use Commonwealth Bank because they've got the strongest balance sheet. Okay, go on. Bear that in mind. I'm using the best example here. Okay. So they've got$652 billion in home loans, right? There's only$25 million in the country, but that's a conversation for another day. It's a staggering number. It's a staggering number. They've got$17 million in consumer finance. So your personal loans, credit cards, these kinds of things. $165 billion, sorry,$17 billion in consumer finance.

20:58$165 billion in business loans. Add it all up. They've got total group lending of$930 billion. They've got a few other assets relying about the place. Total assets of$1.25 trillion. It's a lot of money. Well, it's not really money. It's got promises that people will pay them back. It just is, right? We promise we'll pay you back. Okay, cool. As you say, if they don't, well, there's some things that we can get back. They owe anyone who's got a bank account with them. They owe you money. That's a liability for them. And by the way, if we all try and get our money out at once, it's not there. Correct.

21:36So anyway, it is what it is. But there's$1.18 trillion. Right. So in other words, minus one from the other, you've got$72 billion in book value. Right. So let's just forget everything else. Forget the credit cards. Forget the personal loans. Forget the business loans. Forget the institutional lending or any of that kind of stuff. And let's say that their home loan book value drops by 12%. they're insolvent. So in other words, now, again, I'm not saying that will happen. It probably won't happen. Okay. But when your analysis is as correct as you put faith in those numbers. So don't forget plenty of companies.

22:20We had a chat recently on one of the pods where a lot of the listed investment property companies, the REITs, have these book values of these properties. Like, that is not anywhere. You test that in the real market, my friend, and let's see what the real book value is. Now, all I'm saying is, is that if, and please be clear, this is a hypothetical exercise, but if, God forbid, I don't know, it doesn't seem to happen in this country, but other places it does. If there is a fall in property values, and we know that half of the people are yet to roll off from their fixed home lines. If there is a decline and there are forced sellers, if there is an increase in delinquencies, and in fact, don't forget in the recent report just released, CBA said that their impairments had gone up by 11 % as well.

23:10They had to increase provisions by 57 % in anticipation of some of that. Not very low numbers, admittedly. but my contention is that i think that a value of a lot of those home loans and the assets that back them aren't as robust as may otherwise as as may be presented now it could be wrong it could be wrong but i certainly don't have much of a risk of them all being written up significantly right there is a risk that they could be written down and if that is to be written down and they stay solvent and i'm sure they will and all the rest of it well it's for all our sake hope that that is true.

23:47By the way, again, banks fail. Banks do fail. I know it seems shocking, but let's hope that they do. But all of a sudden, that book value, that price to book ratio, it's like saying, oh, the PE is only eight. Isn't that low? Well, not if the earnings fall. That's right. And so the P to B ratio, the price to book ratio is really low unless the book value falls. And that's my worry. So I guess I want to tease it out though. I mean, how much if you're already selling at book value, are you waiting for half of book value? I mean, there's... No, I'm not doing nothing. I'm not doing nothing. But you're saying the backup of the truck bit I'm talking about, you know, at what point...

24:24Because, yeah, you're already selling roughly a book... By the way, CBA is about two times book. So I think you couldn't make me buy CBA or your money or anyone else's money. Right. But Westpac is roughly at book value. I'm not making a case to buy it, by the way, at all. I'll give my answer to Louis' question in a sec. But I am still mindful that, for all the back up the truck stuff somewhere between this point and insolvency you're gonna you're gonna with theory not insolvency sorry between one times book and and some some tiny percentage of book value you're gonna you're gonna say i'm backing up the truck i'm just wondering how likely that is to find a point between those two numbers without insolvency to your point previously about you know slow then suddenly it doesn't get much below book value until the whole thing folds up for exactly the reasons you've talked about so yeah is there ever a point that, you know, in actual reality, you would buy the banks or are you looking for a price that is so unlikely to ever happen because it's either going to not happen or it's going to go broke.

25:19There's not much time or room in between. It's such an excellent question, mate. So if my options as an investor was under the mattress in$100 notes or CBA, I'd be having a very different look at things. I think I'd be more pragmatic on it. Right. Luckily, I invest in a world where there's 2 ,000 opportunities on the ISX. And so it's not like I'm sitting here waiting, waiting, waiting, and expecting and forecasting. It's called now casting, right? So rather than forecasting, I'm just saying, I don't know what the future holds. But I know that on the spread of possibilities, there's not really much on the upside.

25:57There's a hell of a lot on the downside. And I don't know what's going to happen with the future, but I know I ain't investing now. That's all I know. So the back of the truck thing is more theoretical reality. It's never probably going to come to pass. because the chance of getting a good enough price without, because by the time it's half book, people are talking about the possibility it goes broke. So you're going to be like, well, this is going to happen, so I'm not going to do it. And then by the time it's not going to go broke anymore, it's back to one time's book and the opportunity's passed.

26:20I'm just thinking, given the way you're approaching, you're not wrong, by the way, at all. I'm just trying to tease that out and say, if the reality is you want a much cheaper price, the only way to get that is when the bank's on the brink of insolvency, you're not the guy who's going to say, I'm going to go and play Russian roulette with Westpac shares at half the book value when they might go broke next Monday. So it's probably never going to happen, I guess, is my thinking. No, not necessarily. I mean, I'll now cast. I won't fall. I'll now cast. And remember in the GFC, so you and I are old enough to remember that.

26:47There was a time. And by the way, that wasn't a recession. That was not a recession. Property prices held up insanely well. And yet, even with that being true, they all recapitalized. They all did massive share purchase plans. And they all said to shareholders, can we have some more money? because we're just a little bit spread. That would be a good idea. We've leveraged ourselves to the eyeball. I'm sure it's – and what you will tend to see, and again, history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme, and what you will tend to see is that when things get really scary and someone's forced to blink, they will recapitalize.

27:24And as I said, I wouldn't be surprised if government money finds its way there. And it is this horrible position of too big to fail, and they kind of are too big to fail. Yeah, absolutely. Yep. Societally, they're doing defile. Yep. So government will say, here, take all our taxpayers' money. Take your money. Take my money. Take all our listeners' money. And here you go. Qantas will be there going, oh, it's really great, guys. You should take that offer. I was just popped up on the Westpac board. Oh, yeah, I recommend this, you know. And we'll go, oh, it's really important, you know. And it's so infuriating, but it will happen.

28:00I think when that happens and they blink and then you know that they also, a bit of game theory, you know that when that happens, you don't do it in half a minute. By the time you're raising money and getting bailouts, you don't go, let's just cover us till next month. No, you go hard. So again, I'm not trying to forecast it, but if we are looking at a situation where there's any material recession, banks are recapitalizing heavily, governments are providing guarantees, What's going to happen? Well, two things are going to happen. The earnings of the bank are going to fall for all of the obvious reasons.

28:35The market is going to poo the bed, right, like in a massive way, and multiples are going to get squeezed to a buggery. And yet the bank's balance sheets themselves are going to be strengthened massively. Now, I won't forecast, but if I am looking at that point in time, now I'm interested. Yeah, it makes sense. Now I'm interested. Nice. We're going to move on from banks, mate, because we need to be a little bit quick. I've asked you plenty of questions and we've talked for a long time. That's a short version, mate. I can go on all day with the banks. I will simply say a couple of things. Firstly, Louis, no, you don't have to have exposure to banks.

29:09You also don't have to have exposure to retailers, airlines, technology companies, miners, or anything else. So the – I was on – I'm sure he's not listening. It's on AusBiz, the streaming business show, with a fellow analyst from a different company. I can't remember who it was, so I'm actually happy about that, but someone might remember it. and uh i was saying well you know someone said oh which lithium companies would you buy so i don't have any resource you don't have to buy any resource why do you have to own no you could i'm not saying don't i'm just saying there's no there's no rule you know in pencil or pen in the investment handbook because you must own some of everything and this particular guy said to me well it's a big part of the economy you have to own it i'm like no you really don't we kind of left it there and it was just one of those insert insert face palm meme right so so So, you know, and look, if you are trying to shadow index and pretend you're clever by buying BHP, CBA, News Corp, CSL, Woolies, Telstra, and saying, well, I'm going to give you roughly, you know, by the way, if you match the index, then you're never going to be far from it.

30:07If you're never far from it, your clients are never going to hate you because the worst you'll do is a little bit worse than the market. And that's kind of within the realm of possibility. The best you'll do is a little bit more than the market. And so you might be able to trumpet it a couple of times, but you're not going to scare the horses and you're probably going to keep their money and you're probably going to keep getting paid. which is a really awful thing to do except it's uh what most of the industry does so uh you don't have to have everything now even even you explaining what i know so well i just want to slap myself so i i have said written before you you are not knower you don't need two of everything right there's not there's not the way this needs to work so uh do you need to know in any uh do you know should you have exposure to x industry no not not because the rule if it's attractive then yeah you should but not not because it exists so how much space should we have to the banks i don't own any i have recommended a couple of them but only one at a time you know the income portfolio i manage and it's with like four or five percent of the portfolio compared to you know 40 odd percent of the the market um and purely for income to andrew's point this was not a market beating bet it was a you know just diversified range of income producing companies bet of which a bank was one twentieth of that um do i don't any i've never recommended it to my family or friends i've never recommended any service that i'm trying to beat the market in this is the big four specifically by the way i'll get to acquire in a second um you don't need to have you don't need to own them i think the odds of andrew's worst case scenario are really small but not zero i think if you're going to buy the banks i would be buying the cheapest ones they're all going to go roughly the same over time excuse me um i'd buy the cheapest one and be done with it if you desperately want to have exposure i think they're better priced now than almost any time in the last 15 years um almost since the gfc to andrew's point doesn't mean they can't get better doesn't mean share price can't fall but if i'm buying westpac at book value i think i'll do okay do i think i'm going to beat the market doing that no because bank profit growth can only be a certain proportion and we talked on friday about the fact they are the market so the category of banking of what do we call it not retail banking but for you effectively you know it's vanilla banking not not hedge funds and investment banking stuff can only grow roughly as fast as the economy plus or minus a little bit for debt growth or decline or you know population growth or decline or fee i'll be even cruder mate it's it's it's property like it's prop that's what they do that's what they learn everything else is a rounding error it's bricks and mortar mom and to add houses.

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32:45That's what these institutions do. Period. And they are going to grow roughly over time, I think, at probably wages, plus or minus a bit. And so you're in that same ballpark anyway. So yes, you're right. So do you need to own any? No. Do I think you should own any? I can't tell you what to do, Louis, but I've not recommended it other than for income only. Were you not trying to beat the market? So no. Macquarie, I have recommended to our members. I think Macquarie is a very good business. And a very different beast. Now it also, by the way, is not it's probably riskier in a lot of ways than the big four um babcock and brown the mini macquarie as it was called went stone motherless broke because it made some bets it couldn't meet and so you know you write checks you can't cash guess what happens you go broke that so so i you know macquarie is a better quality business by a decent margin in terms of its growing growth potential diversification of its business geographically and industry by business line but also i actually honestly think you may disagree matt because i know you're pretty negative on property but i think Macquarie is you should be taking this with a bigger grain of salt as as higher risk because it's making leverage bets that one point may catch up with it I don't think it'll happen I wouldn't recommend it if I thought it was going to happen but you know if the banks get recapitalized you may lose most of your money by the way but you know the chance that NAB goes to exactly zero is pretty low you know now Lloyd's in the UK got wiped out by about 90 percent so you know I'm not saying you know 10 percent's the maximum I'm saying it could be massive Macquarie could like Babcock before it go broke.

34:14Now, if there's any Macquarie bankers listening, they're yelling at the pod machine and that's fine. But I just want to be really clear about that. Yeah. Oh, man. You mentioned ComSec before too. So I don't get paid for them. In fact, this will become very apparent that I don't get paid for them because I'm just lazy. And I used to work there years ago and I haven't moved. And I pay much more brokerage than I should. And I'm really not that smart. I signed up for a Titty Waterhouse account back in, I want to say, 1997 or 8, which was acquired by ComSec and I've been there ever since. That's how long I've been a ComSec customer.

34:53I mean, the reason I don't, well, besides being lazy and not very bright, is the fact that I just don't trade very often. I'm a very infrequent, when it actually comes to buying and selling stuff, I don't do it a lot. So it's kind of like, what's the difference? Anyway, there is a tool there. So you click on portfolio and it'll give you a little pie chart of your share diversification. It gives me a nice little score. And it sort of says that, you know, you really want to make sure that you have this many things and exposure to this and that. And there's three. I've only got three colors in my pie chart.

35:3053.1 % is in IT. There you go. Right? 37 % is in industrials. What does that mean? It's all stuff that can't categorize anywhere else, yeah. Oh, I've got 10 % in consumer discretionary. Now, you would look at that and go, whoa, that is hyper-concentrated. I don't want to dox myself too much because there's no upside in sort of revealing too much about things. But I can tell you that of that, you know, more than half of my portfolio in IT, like those companies could not be more different from one another. You know, they share the fact that they have technology-based products. And that's where the beginning and end of the similarity lies.

36:11You know, that is it. And so I would argue, maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm kidding myself, but I would argue that I'm actually pretty well diversified. But against these traditional things of you should have some mining, you should have some of this, you should have some of that. Like it fails. In fact, I'm getting this really bad score here at the moment. and it's just a nonsense. It's a nonsense. Your money is very precious. You work so hard for that and you've saved it up to melting ice cube in terms of cash because of this 6 % inflation. Like you're trying to put it somewhere for it to grow. It's like you've got this luxury of choice.

36:46Go where the best opportunities are. Now, I would say that was really dumb if they were highly correlated in the sense that these all share the same macro risk factors. Okay, that's a different story, but they don't, you know? And so we've really flogged this horse into the dirt, but you don't need to have it. No, I'm looking at the same on my graph. Mine's very different to yours, mate. But of a financial I own, I own Australian Ethical, N.O.B. and Sol Pats, which aren't exactly your grandfather's financials, right? So it's kind of like, where do you own those financials? How is Sol Pats a financial?

37:18Because they can't find anywhere else to put it. Anyway, it's just - I hate sector classifications. I hate them. Can I tell you my favorite one of the broker things? Charles Schwab is my US broker. And they give you a stock quality or stock, I don't know, ABC mark for the stocks. I don't even know how they come up with it. No idea. We mentioned last week, Berkshire Hathaway hit an all-time high. About, I don't even know, it was nine, 12 months ago. Berkshire Hathaway was a C on their radar. ABC, I'm not sure if it was a D or not, it was a C. Now, it's an A. Like, guys, wait until now to make it an A.

37:50And again, to be fair, it wasn't just my name now, but it wasn't that long ago, I don't think. It's just bloody silly. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.

38:05Let's move on to Louis' second question. We can at least answer more than one question in the podcast today. We're getting more time. Question two. I am currently studying for my master's in accounting, and I'm looking forward to graduating next year to begin my journey in either audit or tax. How much value do you place in an auditor's statement in general purpose financial reports? That's how you can tell someone's doing an accounting degree, by the way. They're talking about general purpose financial statements. That's a phrase you use a lot when you do that. Do you read them, he says? Looking through corporate failures, even though assurance has been provided, they still occur.

38:38He says, I'm writing this for my ethics lecture. Louis, you probably should be paying attention to your ethics lecture, Mike, but don't let me be the judge. Do you think audit should be split from the big four, he asks? Looking forward to your thoughts on this. How much value do you put in audit statements in the interest ram? Do you really? Easy. Yeah, zero. Exactly zero?

38:59Well, the moment that you get something where they say the auditors will not sign off on these accounts, I go, something's wrong. Yes. And the shares are probably suspended and it's too late. Right, right, right. In every single other circumstance. Prove me wrong, right? Like, name me a situation. Right now on the ISX, I'm sure there's at least a handful of companies that are about to go on. I guess I'm making the point, though, that the fact there is an auditors report does matter. Oh, well, that's a different story. Yes. Yeah, so the fact that - Sorry. So, auditors have - Just so listeners know, if you don't - Louis studied this, but just so you know, auditors have to, or don't have to, they are paid to provide a statement or a finding, what do they call it?

39:38Something, I can't remember now. Lost the word. Anyway, basically saying whether or not the company's financials are appropriate and whether or not the company is fit to be considered a going concern. In other words, it can pay its bills when they fall due. Right, right. And they normally will provide that unqualified or they will qualify it and say, subject to these conditions, or they will say, we're not prepared to sign off on the fact it's likely to be a going concern. So when you get an orders report in the annual reports of a decent quality company, they're just basically verifying that everything that's in the report should be accurate.

40:09Now, Louis made the point that sometimes that's been a mistake or just straight out wrong. But I just want to make the point, mate, that not having one versus having one, the fact there is an order statement saying it's a going concern is of value, right? Oh, okay. Sorry. Yes. Yes, absolutely. But the thing is, I mean, you don't have a choice. If you're a listed company, you have to get your – so any single company on the ASX you look at will have an auditor's report and every single one of them will say tick. Yes, correct. Because if they didn't say tick, the company would be in suspension. We would be having a very different – so if it's trading as normal, A, it's got an auditor's report says it's fine.

40:52HIH went under. You mentioned Babcock and Brown went under. Enron. All of the auditors signed off on that. Yep. You know, and I'm not, this is sounding like I'm hyper cynical and maybe that's a little bit true. But it's just sort of like, as an investor, when I'm doing my due diligence, do I ever look at, no. Do you? I mean, I've never looked at it, right? Because it doesn't tell me anything other than you've jumped through the right hoops and come out the other side, okay. I'm sure that having an auditor's report required by corporations law means there are fewer failures than there would otherwise be.

41:29Agreed. And because those companies, as you say, might have already suspended. And so there is a process there. And companies know they're going to be audited. So they're less likely to do stupid, dodgy things. So the concept and the execution of an auditors report is an important part of, to my mind, I'll say capital W, Western, which I don't want to call it. Kids have to call it. This is a developed world, whatever we call it now. You know, US, Australia, UK, Germany. You know, these markets that we feel like we can trust as much as possible, the regulators, the regulations and the companies and the disclosures.

42:04And, you know, auditors reports are a really important part of that because they do. I've been in companies, public companies, where they've turned up and said, show me that invoice. Show me that bank account. Show me that, you know, show me the calculations of the, you know, show me the trial balance. All the stuff they're supposed to do. So having an order is really important. To your point, though, Ram, once it's done, is it there? Yes, tick, move on. I will say on a real quick list. It will be there, though. Correct. You don't even have to check. Well, yeah. Well, if you're looking at small companies, you should be a little bit careful.

42:33they do sometimes provide qualified opinions in that auditor's report so there are times where you should absolutely but now it's not going to be this company is a fraud or this company's going broke because they don't get signed off as you say there will be um you know letters that are produced by orders that say we've ordered the books they're legitimate and we have some concerns and that's something you absolutely should be very very careful of but other than that as you say they're there they're there um louis the only thing i would suggest is the the uh reputation of the auditor is something i do look at particularly with smaller companies i once looked at a business on the asx whose auditor was in a residential house in the u.s i literally i literally was this name of you know um something you know was it something Cheatham and Howe.

43:24And I literally looked at it, I Googled it, I went, ah, that's interesting. I'll just, that address is interesting. I looked at it and looked, I think it was Google Earth or whatever it was. I think that's the same one we used for the Menace Detention Center, right? Like it didn't, wasn't the auditor there in like some shack in WA? No, this was different. This is an American one, but yes, same. Yeah, red flag, red flag. Yeah. And well, I mean, look, there are small audit firms and they're cheaper and you know, not everyone's going to use the big four audit firms to do their work and that's not necessarily wrong.

43:49there are some decent second tier audit firms but if they're changing orders a lot or if the order is a complete unknown then yes absolutely uh that's something i do i do look at and i am careful of um a couple of guys i work with do it do it you know as a religion um because it's just one of those things even if it's not a red flag it's a question to ask and you should be more cautious uh just in general if the order is less recognized or recognizable just realize that maybe there's nothing going on or maybe there is, but just keep that, keep that a little bit, you know, a little bit careful, a little bit close.

44:23Yeah. You know what, you know what I would say too, is you'd be surprised at how much you can sniff out shenanigans. You know, it's the old, the old saying is, what is it? Profit is vanity, cash. No, what is that? I'm going to get it wrong now. Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash flow is king. Yeah, exactly. And so when it comes to, and this it's not because there's any necessarily funny buggers going on, but you can, there's a lot more discretion when it comes to sales because I can, well, when do I record that as happening? You know, what costs do I allocate and how? What reporting, you know, there's legitimate reasons as to why some things could be debated.

45:09Cash is cash is cash is cash. So unless there's an outright cooking of the books you know you can when you start to see a very big divergence between sort of what statutory reported figures are and uh cash flows you'd be surprised at the things that can be picked up you get some really good comments on straw man i'm going to give them some of our members applause it's great to have a big broad brains trust so we've got accountants in there and you know it's like it's really just sort of the the whole is greater than the sum of its parts But it's something that I think anyone is capable of doing.

45:41When you sort of look at these things, when you start to see very big disconnects there, again, not that something's going on, but it's a red flag. And when you start seeing, generally red flags, they're like cockroaches. If you see one, there's more often, right? And it's something that you don't need a smoking gun to act. I think a lot of the time it's like, look, I don't know one way or the other. I can't definitively say, but there's enough here where I can put a serious question mark over it. It's like, why am I taking this risk for? Again, I've got this luxury of choice. I do find it interesting.

46:19Let's not go down this rabbit hole, but given everything that's been revealed recently with the big four auditors, I was like, you know, how much trust do you need to have there? I mean, there's issues. issues. And I also find it interesting that I noticed this in any kind of capital city that I go to, you go and you look at these big glass fortresses, the towers, and they're always the big banks and they're always the big auditors. And the consultants, yeah. If I was an alien coming down and it's like, we were walking through ancient Egypt, you know, we would look at the biggest building and that's where the power lies, right?

46:55And our modern society is like, that's where the power lies, the financial companies and the auditors. And that's, that they're somehow affording the best, you know, houses on the block there. And they, humans being humans, they, you know, things get pretty tight there. And it's a little bit concerning. So I'd always say, be your own auditor as best as you can. And just sanity check everything. Yeah. The good thing is the auditors get to see what we don't get to see. We can't go and look for the invoices. We can't check the bank accounts. That's stuff they do do that we can't. I'm sure that'd be divorced from the big four, Louis.

47:30yeah they should um yes there is there is uh do you know what 99 % of the time it's not necessary the other 1 % of the time it's really important and we don't lose anything by doing it you know individual companies lose out because they might get yeah even at the very least there's economies of scale if you're big you're well known your brand's well known you get benefits doing both if you're less um ethical maybe you're you know throwing money one way or the other as we saw with allegedly allegedly um some of the big consulting firms doing government work allegedly allegedly um and i think there's you know there's there's enough there to suggest that if you give people the opportunity and the incentive we shouldn't be surprised when people take it and it's a really really really really easy thing to do simply to say no you can't do both because it's better for us that we remove the temptation that if it's never taken then we don't lose anything you as a as a The audit firm might lose a little bit because you can't leverage those economies of scale or the brand benefit, but that's your problem, not ours.

48:29And that's okay with us as a society. We've chosen to make that decision too. You can't make every dollar you would like to make because there are rules. And that's one of the rules that just makes obvious sense. Same with bringing up contractors. You shouldn't be allowed to consult to government and private enterprise for what it's worth. Do one or the other. Choose your boat. If you don't like it, don't do it. That's easy. Same with audit firms. It should be the same, by the way, with banks. They should have to separate out their commercial and investment banking business and derivatives trading from their stock.

48:57Oh, my gosh. Is that not the biggest no-brainer ever? It's super, isn't it? Yeah. Just do it. Easiest thing in the world. I'll call that bluff any day. Oh, we can't do that because of it. Oh, okay. Don't do it then. Just like, we'll take your banking license away. You're here to serve us. Correct. They just say that. And that's lobbying for you. No politicians just change that because they thought it was better for anybody. They changed it because I lobbied to and they gave into it rather than actually saying, There's no reason to do it here. Oh, man. Yes. No, I think that's - It's hard to, isn't it?

49:27I do understand the concentration of power amongst the auditing firms because if I was the CEO of an ASX 200 company - Yeah, right. And I go, you know what? We're going to try and save a few bucks because there's this perfectly decent mid-tier firm over here. They're really good, perfectly trustworthy. Yep, yep. And we're going to save our shareholders a bunch of money. No, because whatever goes wrong, I am never going to get in trouble for choosing PwC. Yep. I'm just not, right? Because the old saying is no one got fired for hiring IBM is the old saying. And it's just they are rightly or wrongly regarded as best in breed and you're just going to do it because that's just what you're going to do.

50:07And even if the other people are better, more skilled, more competent, better value for money and the rest of it, the moment that CBA says actually we're not using PwC anymore, everyone goes, whoa. What? That's exactly right, yes. What's going on? And so you kind of, but again, like that is the incredible privilege that you enjoy. No one designed it that way, but it evolved that way. And here we are. And, you know, it's, I don't know. It's just a bit depressing. A hundred percent, a hundred percent. Hey, this is a great question we got from Hugo. He says, morning gents, I've got a few quotes to set up my question on innovation.

50:43They'll hopefully get you very Sunday morning ranty, he says. We're already in a ranty mood. Bring it on. Well, it's a two-part question. So, Clippy, he says. Quote number one. Quote, being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong. Quote number two. This is an Andrew Page special. Very slowly, then all at once. Quote number three. It's different this time. Hugo says, I work in tech, and I generally invest only in ideas with a five to ten-year time horizon. considering iteration cycles on our days and weeks not months and years how do you consider stock picking outside of the picks and shovels plays in a market that is evolving at such a pace and the second question is how do you quantify the network effects of mega incumbents when comparing them to their younger competitors really really great questions you go so around you first mate how do you you're you've just talked about the fact you're 51.3 i think you said percent in technology um how do you how do you approach that uh given i completely agree um david gardener the motley falls co-founder has said you know 200 years ago um if you were born in you know next to the nile river in egypt you were never going to move your grandfather did the same job your father did the same job you did you'll do the same your son will do the same his son will do the same it was a used male example because it was that that sort of environment back then that society you know you you change was measured in multiple lifetimes you know just and there was industrial revolution and that kind of brought things to half centuries and then you know to hugo's point is now measuring days and weeks how do you how do you approach your investing given that sheer pace of of innovation of growth technology both of the companies you buy and also the potential competitors or or as yet unknown competitors that might simply spring up So hard.

52:34Howard Marks made comment. I've referenced it a few times. I really respect him. He deserves more notoriety and he writes, he's a bond investor, but he writes a lot of good stuff. He wrote probably 18 months, 24 months ago now that the pace of change is accelerating. And so it's hard, you know, you could have, you could make, we're all crystal ball gazing, right? When it comes to investing. And when it comes to technology, there was a time where you could look at perhaps like the big chip manufacturers or whatever and say, look, they're going to be around for a long time yet. But things change.

53:12The rapidity of change is increasing. So I thought a really interesting example with this whole AI stuff is that Google, which is hard to think of a more deeply motored technology advantaged company. Overnight, the market just went, whoa. And you couldn't use the word Bing without being laughed at. Now, for those who don't know, Bing is Microsoft searcher. Who the hell uses Bing? Like grandma, when she installs the default browser, that's who uses Bing. No one else in the world uses Bing, right? But now they've got ChatGPT under their arm and they're like, we were seriously caught. Now, I don't think this is going to happen in the case of Google, by the way, so I don't want to, it's easy to get off tangent here.

54:00But my point is that we all of a sudden, the world started to very take seriously that Google might actually lose its dominant position in search because of this technology that just like a month ago wasn't being discussed was on no one's radar yeah and and and that is something that makes it very very hard very very hard so what's going to be the next innovation that completely obfuscates the current technology that you're investing in so it has to be something where i i just feel that's less likely but not impossible so there's no way to protect against it um uh so how do you think about then from an investing perspective I like technology products that get deeply embedded into the workflows of their customers.

54:43Right. So it becomes so critical that something doesn't have to be better. It has to be orders of magnitude better for me to even contemplate switching. The classic examples with accounting software. It's like, I use Xero because, you know, why wouldn't I? But if someone else came along and it's like, oh, this is a little bit cheaper and a little bit better. It's just too much of a hassle. I can't even change brokers because I'm so lazy. And I've got a million plates spinning in the air. And you want me to change my accounting software? And the software that I like is that kind of stuff. And I also like, I think when it comes to tech, the big things have been stitched up by the big players.

55:24You know, no one's disrupting the really big, well, talking about both sides of my mouth, it's very difficult to disrupt the big players in the big areas of tech. I really love the niche areas of tech where they're doing technology that it's just sort of like the market is just way too, it might be a hundred billion dollar market, but it's just too small for Google or Microsoft or Amazon or Apple to even bother with. Even if we win and we win the whole market, it's not worth doing. So there's literally four or five tiny little players around the world that are doing it. And they're so small today and the opportunity is so large.

55:57And there is a structural industry-wide shift as to moving onto this new way of doing business or this new, that they can win that and only that and nothing else. And still there's incredible upside potential. I also like things too where I think where technology will change, this comes back to the AI, as you can tell, mate, I'm not short of an opinion on this, but I think where there'll be a big bubble in AI, but there'll be legitimacy at its heart. And I think what you want to do is remember that AI can be pointed towards anything. I've even had a little play around the show off the me and the devs at straw man.

56:37It's like, Oh, we could do that. We can, we're not developing the large language model, but we're just off the shelf and pointing at it stuff. Right. If you've got a company with proprietary data, that's pretty cool. Right. Like you, the technology can change, but these things generally rely on good quality data. And if you own the data, I think that's a nice little thing to have as well. And more broadly, I just diversify, right? Because I know that things are going to unfold in ways that are unpredictable. And I also know that these are the kind of games I play where it's like, well, I only need one or two kingmakers and the rest can go to zero as far as I'm concerned because that is how big the reward is.

57:20And I'm just not going to bet it all on black, you know, Wesley Snipes style. And I'm just not going to do that because I know that no matter how high conviction it is, things can really change rapidly. So spread it around a little bit. Try and go in areas which are more difficult to disrupt and just be hyper alert to new things that come along. And not that you're going to jump at every shadow because that's a sure way to not capture any long-term multibaggers, but be alert to it. And, yeah, that's probably the short answer. That's the short answer. That's the short answer. Hey, I can't have much more to you, so I'm going to do it very quickly.

57:56i i don't think you need to be that i don't think you need to approach it actually that much more differently because there's two things going on the first is you need to work out the direction of the business and then you need to work out with the share price is reasonable for that business and i think you know i mentioned the industrial revolution you know i've said before you know you build one steel mill it works and after 15 years you say you know i might build a second one out of five years it's built now if you build a third one in five years later than that eventually in a century, you've got most of the steel mills in most of the areas in most of the country.

58:27But that's how long it takes. Now, this happens much more quickly, which is fine, but so do the share prices. So because you couldn't scale a steel mill, there was no real massive, huge upside potential that was going to come and overwhelm the share price. So I've seen tech fortunes made a loss in really short periods of time. So a quick one, I think you take the same approach you still say i think this is a 10-year winner and if it's not after a year and a half you sell it i don't mean that to sound flippant but you know we've said before you buy to hold not buy and hold regardless of the circumstances so if you you look for the same things you may have to be more vigilant to see them happening in in effectively real time rather than every annual report with these get a little bit better so customer uptake sales growth recurring revenue all that stuff you see that happening that's probably what you're looking for um and you're probably should be a little more alert to it particularly in those sort of industries where disruption can happen quickly i will say in terms of your network effects question mate um how do you quantify it firstly i don't try and quantify it and i know that probably you're a technologist so maybe maybe quantification and you know using the maths of it makes sense to you um i think what you're looking for for me you say you say the incumbents versus the younger competitors.

59:44What you're really looking for is continued growth and or decline. So Telstra was the only game in town until Optus turned up. They could only lose customers at that point. So you're looking for evidence that a company is losing customers or losing usage. A simple example, you know, MySpace got absolutely trounced by Facebook. And Facebook, despite, you know, insta which is then bought despite whatsapp despite you know wechat despite tiktok snapchat insert others here um threads twitter is it is it is it the is it the dominant sorry is it is it the massive growth business it was when it first took over myspace no is it still really dominant despite the fact everyone laughs at only our grandparents use it this is still a massive massive incredibly profitable business and so you also write those things off at your peril right so So I think on the way through, if you see them taking more and more customers, you're in a good place.

1:00:45I would personally very, very, you mentioned Google before, Ram, I would be very careful not to write off the incumbents too quickly. But I would look at the growth of the other guys. And as they come up, again, take that seriously as well. What you're looking for is momentum, compound growth in use, monthly average users, daily average users, active users should say, you know revenues all those things you're looking for you actually want to see that and as long as you're seeing that the price is reasonable you don't necessarily have to pick the winner or the only winner right you can kind of you know if you like tiktok's growth then buy the shares even if facebook remains bigger than for a long time if more and more people keep using tiktok in larger and larger numbers it tells you exactly what you need to know which is there's a more relevant platform for more people more often that generally is a good place when it becomes less relevant less frequently then you're going to start to wonder whether you know it's it's jumped the shark but in the meantime i really wouldn't overthink it i wouldn't try and be too active i guess that's our last thing don't over think it don't be overactive don't try and second guess every zig and zag be directionally right for long enough is probably my best idea yep and and i'll just i finish up by saying that what will happen is even if you're right in all of your process is that the share prices are not going to reflect the fundamentals accurately.

1:02:04So here's what I think about a lot. So if I owned a share and it goes sideways for three years, it does nothing, and then it doubles on the fourth year, my compound annual growth rate is 19 % per annum. Now, on the day before it doubles, and that's what happens, like just going back to that initial quote that the listener threw at us, that, you know, just nothing. And then all of a sudden, which is that's how it tends to go in this kind of space. And what am I missing? What's going on? Nothing's happening. And like, well, I have underperformed the market for four years and then bam, I'm massively out in front.

1:02:38That is what to, is that even when every metric you're looking at is going right, you'll be hitting your head against the wall going, what am I missing? Why is the market? Stay true to yourself because it will eventually come. And then you've just got to be disciplined enough not to be so tempted and relieved to sell and lock in an easy profit. That's so totally it. That's so totally it. Just, yeah, look, love innovation, follow it with interest, divorce the excitable consumer and for you probably Hugo technologist, part of your brain from the long-term investor brain because these things, yeah, I mean, even Amazon, even Google, I mean, how quickly are fortunes really?

1:03:18Tesla went nowhere for five years. Facebook, I mean, you know, it'll happen. Nvidia's probably been the one that's really gone. Even then, you've had five, seven, ten years to get onto a business stock that's crippled the shit. You can be late. You can be late on the quote-unquote late and still do extraordinarily well. The people who do the best on, I don't know, pick an example. I'll go with Facebook because you mentioned it. With the people in the dorm room with Mark, right? Like they did insanely well. But the people who waited until it was listed on a public market missed out on – remember, it listed at a PE of 100.

1:03:48That's what I did too. And a couple of years later, I think you were up 200 % or something. I haven't looked at it since and for a long time. But my point is, is that when you have ones with incredibly entrenched positions, which are executing well with long runways, you can be late and still do. In fact, from a risk reward proposition, it's actually a better investment. On that note, I think it's time we let our listeners enjoy the rest of their Sundays. Now they know what straw man is and they've heard us chat and rant. Thank you for the opportunity. And we got through two whole questions, maybe three.

1:04:23Four or five, I think. Oh, wow. Okay, okay. Well, maybe four. Send us in your questions, though. Please send us the questions. You know how to get in touch with us. Fool, sorry, info at fool.com.au. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Yes, I'm going to keep calling it Twitter, Andrew. At sage underscore simia at strawmaninvest. You can get to me on Twitter or Insta or threads at TMF Scott P or The Motley Fool AU and Facebook at facebook.com forward slash Scott Phillips money. Send us your questions. Send us your comments. We love them and we've got plenty to get through next time we meet. Well, not next time.

1:04:56Next time is Friday. But next Sunday, we'll do our mailbag again. Until Friday, Fool on. Cheers. The Motley Fool and people appearing in this program may have positions in the companies mentioned. General advice only. Please speak to your financial professional to understand how it may pertain to your situation. Subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener. The Motley Fool operates under Financial Services Licence 400691.

From the publisher

– How much bank exposure should I have?

– What could go wrong with the banks?

– How much stock do you place in an audit report?

– How to pick stocks in a rapidly evolving tech landscape?

– How do you compare the network effects of incumbents versus the upstarts?

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