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Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money - July 23, 2023
Episode Overview In this special Sunday Mailbag edition of *Motley Fool Money*, hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page address listener questions on a variety of financial and investment topics, including the implications of interest rates, retail investing, and the nuances of "sophisticated" investing.
Key Questions Addressed
- Silicon Valley Bank's Future
- Discussion on whether time will catch up with Silicon Valley Bank and its management post-crisis.
- Insights into the bank's operational issues and mismanagement.
- Investment Strategies for Super vs. Non-Super
- An exploration of whether superannuation (retirement savings) and non-super investments should follow the same strategy.
- Emphasis on long-term planning and risk management in both portfolios.
- Inflation and Fuel Excise
- A listener's perspective on whether adjusting fuel excise could help manage inflation.
- Discussion on the potential consequences and fairness of using fuel taxes as a monetary policy tool.
- Short-Term Rentals vs. Traditional Real Estate
- Examination of the risks and rewards of investing in Airbnb properties.
- Consideration of the broader implications of short-term rentals on housing supply and prices.
- Current Trends in Retail Stocks
- Analysis of the declining stock prices of retail companies and the implications for investors.
- Insight into the nature of retail investing and the cyclical challenges faced by retailers.
Detailed Discussion Points
- Silicon Valley Bank's Management and Accountability
- The hosts discuss the likelihood of accountability for the bank's executives, touching on historical precedents from the GFC where few faced actual consequences for their actions.
- They emphasize the strategic mismanagement rather than outright illegal actions that led to the bank's failure.
- Investment Approaches: Super vs. Non-Super
- Ed's Case Study:
- Ed shares his investment journey and expresses frustration with the fluctuating nature of non-super investments compared to the stable approach of superannuation.
- The hosts suggest alignment between both investment strategies may alleviate Ed's emotional turmoil regarding market volatility.
- Fuel Excise as an Inflation Control Measure
- The hosts explore a listener's suggestion on using fuel taxes to control inflation, highlighting the potential drawbacks and unintended consequences of such a measure.
- A nuanced discussion arises about how different income groups would be affected by changes in fuel prices.
- Short-Term Rentals (Airbnb) as an Investment
- While recognizing the potential for high returns, the risks of short-term rentals are highlighted, including increased management responsibilities and market volatility.
- The discussion points out the moral implications of short-term rentals on the housing market, emphasizing the need for responsible investment practices.
- Retail Stocks: Timing and Valuation
- The hosts analyze the disparity in valuation between struggling retail stocks and those with high P/E ratios like Temple & Webster.
- The conversation underscores the importance of evaluating each stock's fundamentals and the market conditions, highlighting the potential for long-term gains in undervalued retail stocks if they manage to survive market downturns.
Key Takeaways
- Investment Philosophy: The hosts advocate for a consistent investment strategy across different accounts, focusing on the best opportunities rather than letting tax structures dictate investment choices.
- Market Volatility: Understanding the inherent volatility of sectors, especially retail, is crucial for maintaining a steady investment approach.
- Long-term Perspective: Patience and a long-term view are emphasized as critical traits for successful investing, especially in uncertain times.
- Critique of Investment Labels: The hosts challenge the definitions of “sophisticated” versus “retail” investors, arguing that financial status does not necessarily correlate with investment acumen.
Conclusion In closing, Scott and Andrew encourage listeners to remain informed, adopt a disciplined investment strategy, and engage critically with the financial landscape. They remind listeners to consider the broader socio-economic implications of their investment decisions while maintaining a focus on potential long-term returns.
For more insights, subscribe to the *Motley Fool Money* newsletter at [fool.com.au](https://fool.com.au/LiSTNR).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:07Welcome to Motley Fool Money, our very special Sunday Mailbag edition. Now, it's very possible I'm back in harness by now, but just in case, we decided to pre-record one last episode, and this is that. I say we, it's about me, Scott Phillips, and him, Andrew Strawman Page. How are you, mate? I'm good. Welcome back, if you're back. Exactly. Or if I'm not, then I should be back by now, because it should have been midweek-ish. I'm driving back from Uluru, the long way through Queensland, with a mate. We're dropping the families at the airport. We're going to get back for school and we're taking the long way home, which should have been a fun trip.
0:49So assuming no horrible breakdowns or something else, that's why we're pre-recording this one because if it all goes pear-shaped, I could be on the side of the road in Bourke or Toowoomba or somewhere else right now. But hopefully I'm not. Hopefully I am back in the saddle. But yes, we wanted to make sure that our loyal, faithful listeners got every bit of content we could provide. So hence, one last pre-record. In saying that, if you have some questions, now is a great time because we've pretty much emptied the mailbag. This is the end of the end of the end of everything we've got. If you want a question answered, you need to throw it in the mailbag.
1:21And the way to do that is to go to info, I-N-F-O at fool.com.au. Go to all the socials. Andrew is still exclusive on Elon's favorite toy, Twitter, at Sage underscore Simeon, at Strawman Invest. He's probably on some Bitcoin-based, you know, distributed chat social network thing at some point, but that's going to die. Let's be honest. You'll get me on Twitter or Insta at TMF Scott P. The Motley Fool is at The Motley Fool AU. And on Facebook at facebook.com forward slash Scott Phillips money. Now, Andrew, we got a question from Ed. Let's kick it off with Ed's question. He said, first of all, thanks for the pods.
1:59Scott, stop it. You know what I'm talking about, but because I know you'll humor yourself about it, if in doubt, ask Andrew. Andrew, just say, Strawman is a private online investment club. Hang on. Strawman. Or is it an online private investment club? Oh, no, what have I done? Which is it? No, no, disregard that. I'll go to strawman.com and check for myself. Nice one, Ed, I say. As I pat my own back. But seriously, Scott, please let it go. I love it, Ed. Thank you, mate. So I didn't ask you the question. You saved Andrew having to answer it because you answered it for him, Ed. Which one is it, though?
2:33Is it an online private investment company or a private online investment company? Yeah, six in one, half a dozen of the other. Whatever you prefer. He said potato, I said potato. Yep. All right. Ed says, so first, I started investing way back in 2002 based on the advice of a very good financial planner. One who has been an active advocate for fees for service and against commissions. Awesome. This period of investment saw me navigate the GFC, hold tight, survive a margin call. I'm not sure how good a financial planner he was if he got you a margin call, but that's a different question, Ed. And ultimately, sell well ahead in 2015.
3:08Wait for it, Andrew. to fund a mortgage for a residential property. In early 2020, I realized a major increase in income, invested heavily in the COVID downturn based on some foolish advice and quickly became a legend in my own mind, up 100 % throughout 2021. Then in capitals, he says, I am no longer a legend, full stop. My greatest lesson. I've learned an awful lot from FOMO he says in brackets like a mofo spax de-worsification outrageous over valuations though time may heal some of these lack of focus lack of discipline lack of a clear goal for example establishing what research i'll be happy with more importantly i've learned to stay the course and to query all advice robustly even foolish advice at times he says at a cost both ways just quietly i think that means sometimes he listened and we lost your money sometimes he orders and he lost money himself i'm not sure as a side note he says i remain so very mixed i both admire the commitment to the foolish philosophy yet remain exceptionally frustrated by this very same commitment which resulted in so many recommendations on non-profitable growth stocks in a range of technology focused portfolios during a period of historically high valuation i really feel the fool is currently standing with its pants down in many respects only time will tell if its pants are pulled up here in Australia and in the US.
4:41Gee, thanks, Ed, but harsh for fair. Okay, so super, he says. I'm not messing with my super. My target is market returns for the next 20 years. I'm in my mid-40s, he says. It's in a handful of broad indexes and solid good, says me, shares. ASX 300, Small Lords, US Total Market, NASDAQ, and some proven performers. Think Brickworks, Solpats, Macquarie. He says, and certainly no other banks. I average in fortnightly up to 90 % of the maximum concessional rate. No stress. I build a modest cash pool, 10 % of my remaining concessional cap, iteratively to top up when the opportunity presents. I sleep well at night, says Ed.
5:20I listen to you gentlemen. I remain unemotional about the current tech market upturn. He says, email written early June 23. Date snapping it. Good choice. In fact, I see it as an ideal reminder to not listen to the noise. Here then is my question. If I'm happy with my approach to super and largely with my approach to all investing now, yet remain any one of many of excited, joyous, frustrated, dismayed, indifferent or disgusted, depending on the investment in my portfolio outside of super, do you think an alignment of the approaches will alleviate these mixed emotions? is it even necessary given i sleep at night what about lower risk in super higher risk outside it i should point out that amongst my non-super rabble i have many high quality investments which i have topped up along the way but they represent only a portion he says 30 in terms of number yet far more in terms of value yet yet it depends and in the long term i'll be fine i think he's channeling you there ram i've phrased my question you see to get at the psychology and deviate from personal advice, of course.
6:25As an aside, I'm going to do some background on the people who ran Silicon Valley Bank into the ground. Do you think I'll be dismayed and find they all retain various positions on various boards? Or will I rejoice that the system has caught up with them? Keep it up. Thanks, Ed. That is a very thorough email, Ed. Thank you very much for the thoughts. Thank you for the Harsh But Fair thoughts about our recommendations over the last little while too. They have been a bit hit and miss in some of our services for a while. But Ram, let's go to Ed's particular questions. Let's start with the last one first.
6:56Silicon Valley Bank. Perp walk, time in jail, never to be served on a corporate board or a management position again? Or are they going to rise Phoenix like from the ashes, do you reckon? Well, the bank's gone. That's not coming back. But people will be fine. No one's going to jail. Look at the GFC. One dude went to jail out of all of that nonsense. You have to do a lot wrong, don't you? Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, it's a nuanced thing. They actually weren't insolvent. It was sort of a literal bank run, right? It sort of sapped out all of their deposits and that sort of forced them to having to sell.
7:39It was a timing problem rather than a solvency problem. Yeah, so they didn't actually do – look, you can question the rules, but they didn't break any rules. and that's probably the biggest risk right or the biggest issue i reckon like as much as we want to focus because we kind of we we love we love the gladiators and we love the bit of blood sport we kind of focus on the people and there's not to say they shouldn't be focused on because i i think it's pretty clear they mismanaged the bank for exactly that reason they yeah they set the circumstances up that meant a run was was you know we could run on the duration duration mismatch was the error not a legal error but a strategic error imaginary yeah totally but as you say i I think that's where we don't focus enough.
8:18I will say, let me tangent for a second, Offhead's question. You know the whole PwC scandal. Now, it's four weeks later after we were recording this, or five weeks, so anything could happen in the meantime, God knows what happens. What frustrates me about PwC is that we're focusing on one consulting group and one thing they allegedly did wrong. And what will happen is, if night follows day, PwC will cauterize the wound, they'll fire some people, they'll say, see, we're fixed, we're changed, we're going to move on. And what it doesn't do is, it doesn't change the inherent relationship or the incentives that exist in that business and i think that's the reason i raise that is a because it frustrates a hell out of me b because i think that's the thing we're seeing i mean silica valley bank happened what 15 years after the gfc because the circumstances still remain in place to allow that to happen but by definition the regulators you talked about the laws the the legislators you know if they've done different things at the time with the GFC and then subsequently, the circumstances may not have existed for this to even happen in the first place.
9:17Yep. No, absolutely. They wound back a lot of the protections. The reality is, is that banking is an insanely profitable endeavor. You know, it really is. I take your money. I pay you bugger all for that, for the privilege. That's right. And I invested over there at much higher rates. You know, the old saying is you borrow at three, lend at six, and you're on the golf course by three. That was sort of like the old boys club. It makes you sick to your stomach, doesn't it? But that's kind of it. So you get to literally, literally create money and get a return on that. So that's great. Banking is actually a really important service.
9:58Credit creation has actually been a wonderful tailwind for economic growth. But just to sort of quote Peter Parker's uncle, with great power, with great power comes great responsibility. And so I don't begrudge, we want banks to be profitable. We want them to be viable. We don't want them to be super profitable, but we want them to earn a margin and be there and to make it sort of worthwhile and ultimately just sort of viable. But I kind of think that the deal should be with society, with us, which is, okay, we kind of need you guys and current way that the world is sort of structured, but you can't do this, this, this or this.
10:40Yeah. And everyone will cry foul. Oh, we can't. But well, you know, just don't do it then, right? But there'll be plenty of, as long as there is a margin to be made, someone will do it. And that's what it should be. And so I definitely think that, you know, we need better delineation between traditional banking services and investment banking as well. There used to be a literal, you couldn't do both. No. And the lobbyists managed to convince government it was necessary and possible and worthwhile without taking too much risk and guess what turns out you know sophistication and and whatever there's a whole rant there about the capture of government by by vested interests which we're not going to have time to go into but suffice it to say had they just done what the you know it's funny there's not a lot new in investing there's a lot new in life um Charlie Munger famously quotes Ben Franklin who lived a couple hundred years ago and tries to live by those maxims and you kind of think you know what for all things we think we've invented in the meantime we have like you know society the inventions of society are phenomenal i'm not sure there are too many new principles or too many new ways of actually behaving ethically and responsibly that weren't known 400 years ago right like it's not actually that hard you've just got to say that sounds like yeah maybe you know the idea removing red tape is is attractive if the red tape is genuinely just painful for its own sake it's there for a good reason then that's there for a good reason leave the red tape alone yep Yeah, put proper incentives in place.
12:01A while back there was changes to the law where boards were directly responsible for the health and safety of employees. And so guess what? Every company presentation, particularly for mining and industrial companies, zero accidents and they make a big deal about it. The annual reports, it is there. And guess what? They genuinely try to minimize that. Why? Because they're on the hook for it if something goes wrong. And so when there is a very little risk and downside to me personally as someone in a position of authority as a key decision maker, and there's a huge upside to be made if I want to sort of push things in the wrong direction, I might not do it.
12:47You might not do it. 80 % of people might not do it. But enough people will do it if the conditions are there, right? It's sort of like chances are things won't go completely pear-shaped on my watch. I stand to score an incredible bonus. Worst, worst case scenario, I lose my job and I pop up on another board in a few years' time and I've still got my millions of dollars. It's kind of like we always talk about risk-reward in this game. And so it is a very bastardized sort of risk-reward kind of setup that we have. So, you know, if you were to make the board directly responsible for improper, you know, judicial management of other people's capital, I reckon you'd see some changes.
13:30Funny, you know, I - Not going to happen. No, it's not. If you track this back, here's the thing. The management are appointed by the board. The board are appointed and retained by the shareholders. The shareholders in most large organizations tend to be a bunch of short-term funds who really don't care about the long-term future of the business. generally with massive exceptions and etc etc uh it's it either you change the regulations or you change the shareholding or both um yeah it's also why i love founder owned businesses businesses that are going to run businesses businesses where the the ceo or the board or both have large amounts of their wealth tied up in these companies um you know because it's just you know we talk about independent directors and independent directors are supposed to be people who haven't been engaged with the company that long.
14:16And, you know, we've ranted before of the SEC in the US. By their rules, Warren Buffett's not an independent director, nor does Charlie Munger. It's like, so hang on, you're telling me we should get rid of Buffett and Munger and hire some professional director on four other boards who has a nice CV, a shiny suit and some good connections. And that's a better, you know, it's madness. It is, isn't it? And you kind of think about, that's what's missing is the incentives piece. There's an academic reality of, what if they didn't have any skin in the game on this thing? Then they'd make, you know, independent judgments.
14:42Well, actually, no. they're going to make not independent is the wrong word right it's like are they genuinely aligned with with shareholders well if they own a decent amount of shares and you know this is their thing you know you can be sure that's why buffett's putting his son as the new chairman when buffett's no longer running the business he says look you know this it's it's his job to meant to care about the future of the company my legacy my artwork gets passed down to my son he's going to look after this as the chair because he cares more than anyone else does for those for those reasons right and it's that kind of stuff that matters hey um let's move on to the second part of the question because otherwise we'll still be talking about this in an hour's time uh i think ed's question is interesting mate about you know what to do inside super versus what to do outside super and it strikes me ed's kind of taking this kind of reasonably um you know he said super's great it's the outside super stuff where he's taking a different view he's been a little more growthy he's been a little more ambitious and it maybe hasn't worked out as well as he wanted it to compared to his super so he's kind of saying well you know what's the what should he do?
15:43Should he be saying an approach is an approach and the structure doesn't matter? Or should he be saying super is for conservative retirement, the other stuff I can take some chances on? And he says, as you will say, it depends and in the long term he'll be fine. But other than that, what do you recommend? What's your thought about super versus non-super investing and whether or not they should be the same or different or how to think about those two buckets? I personally think it should be the same. I mean, regardless of the sort of tax structure, I just want to make the best investments I possibly can.
16:13Yeah. Right. So the distinction for me is what do I feel I want access to before I'm 75 by the time they raise it when I get there. Which is going to happen, right? Yeah. That's the main consideration for me. I've got a pile of money that I've – a pile of money, wouldn't that be nice? I've got a bit of money that I've – I've got a sweet pool full of money, says Andrew, Moneybags page. I was just whinging to you about my latest electricity bill and the rest of it. That's right. There's not, you know, whatever's there. It's a question of, you know, is this for the ultra long term or is just this for, well, it's always long term for me.
16:52But, you know, I do like having money outside of super because my circumstances might change. I might actually want to buy or be in a position to buy a house at some point in time. So for me, that's the delineating factor is when do I need access to it? Other than that, I pretty much approach it the same way. Is your investing strategy any different, mate? I do have a lot more. I don't have any ETFs directly outside of Super, but I do have it in Super. I do tend to keep it pretty easier, I suppose. It doesn't require as much fiddling. I use Australian Super, the member direct option, which allows me to sort of buy direct amongst the top 300.
17:35So, you know, I've got a bit more flexibility like that. And I just do tend to – I try not to fiddle too much as a general rule, but it's that stuff I really want sort of as low fiddle requirement. But it's not miles away. There's a lot of overlap in many other respects. Yeah, I'm actually probably even more than you from the sound of it. I think my super and non-super is almost, it's not identical at all. I have US shares in my own name that I don't have in my super fund because just honestly, it's just a hassle because I have an SMSF and just a US account I can't be bothered with. And I probably should, but you know, so I have US shares only in my own name.
18:14That being said, I want to say 90 plus percent of my positions are overlapping in the two different structures. They are different weightings because I bought them at different times, interestingly enough. So I could sell down some of my bigger holdings I've had for a long time, and they've done actually relatively well. I could sell those down and reallocate, but I didn't. When I put money in super, for example, in SMSF, I haven't taken a bigger chunk if I bought them later just because one of them is that's where the market's got to. Now, that's a degree of self-denial and crazy magical thinking because if I'm happy to have 10 % of company A in my personal fund but 5 % in super, There's no real reason that should be true with one exception, which is I do kind of consider them both the same pool of money.
18:59Obviously, keep outside as you do, Andrew, to make sure I've got flexibility. But I look at my total portfolio and say, okay, well, there's 10 % in company, A, in my personal account, 5 % in the other account, total, total, okay, well, I'll just pretend the numbers are the same. 7.5 % in total, that's my total exposure to that as a proportion of my total portfolio. And so there's a bit of that. That's kind of how I think about it. So if something's worth buying for super, it's worth buying for my personal account and vice versa in my mind. I don't always buy them all at the same time. I don't always buy the same amount of each, but I don't have any distinction between the two.
19:29I would just, we talked before, I think it was actually on Friday, might've been the week before, about if you're someone who just needs to have a bit of play money just to keep the rest of the money safe, then so be it. And so if that's you, Ed, or there's someone listening, feel free to do something like that. To my mind, I don't necessarily think your investment approach should be different for the two buckets, unless your horizons are different, which Andrew just kind of mentioned for him and potentially a house. You know, I've got hopefully, I mean, you know, fingers crossed, a couple of decades left of doing this thing and then some sort of retirement, part-time, full-time, whatever I end up doing.
20:06And, you know, I think my best investments are my best investments. I don't, here's the other thing, by the way, if you're in a, if you're reasonably young and you are, I'd like to believe you are, Ed, because you're in your 40s and you're younger than me. So I'm going to assume you're young. but if that's if that's you if that's the case then you don't need to be taking undue risks or even you've said yourself you learned a few things about yourself about what sort of returns you really want I think you should absolutely go for the most the highest return you can get reasonably get right because that's what we're here for otherwise buy an index but I also would say don't don't be like a sort of a sort of tortoise and hare you've I think you've probably learned that lesson so maybe you I'm telling you this after the fact but for anyone else listening don't feel like i'm gonna go for 25 returns my personal account because i can afford to because it's high growth and it's higher risk and i'll just keep my super safe that money is going to spend exactly the same when you're 67 or 75 as andrew says when we finally retire um so don't you don't feel in my view anyway don't fall for the temptation to feel like you have to or you should take more risk in one or less risk in the other they are both you know retirement funding in theory or maybe for some other purpose like a house or something else but generally speaking for me it's it's the same approach the same mentality the same risk reward trade-off i don't so i don't think it's useful theoretically as an investor again if you need to have some play money then so be it but generally speaking if you ask me best best practice i would say all the money is going to be used at some point later in your life um you want it in the best investments you can find taking undue risk for high but unlikely reward is probably not a not the smartest strategy in the world.
21:39Yeah. Yeah. I mean, what I would, I guess, one comment I would make is if you are going for that higher growth strategy outside of SIP, or it really doesn't matter where it is, I think what, they tend to be called high beta stocks. And that just means that they're more volatile than the average of the market. So what you tend to see there, even if you're doing it well, is that when markets are going up, you go up much more but when markets are going down you go down much more it's it's kind of just the way it goes yeah of course we know that you know on average the market goes up two out of every three years and one down one of every three as an average right so it does tend to work out pretty well over time but I think it's just worth emphasizing that that it is is if you are going to take that strategy, you're not necessarily wrong.
22:37Maybe I'm just saying this to make myself feel better. But you're not necessarily wrong if you've underperformed for a year or so because that's probably what you should have expected with that kind of strategy. That's a good point. You're definitely wrong if the businesses aren't performing well. Or if you realize you paid too much in the first place because both those things are true. Very true. Very true. But as I'm saying, even when done right, you will just see things move around to a much greater degree. And so it's just to sort of know that in advance. And there's nothing wrong with that.
23:09I mean, I very deliberately take that on because I kind of think, well, if the price of excess returns is excess volatility, I'll pay that price. But hopefully I'm going in eyes wide open with that expectation. And you expect the long term to still work out exactly. Yeah, it has so far. Here's one from Bryce who says, Hi, Andrew and Scott. I'm a lowly retail investor who is constantly envious of the opportunities that sophisticated slash wholesale investors have access to. The grass looks greener on the other side, says Bryce, and I find myself mournfully reading investment application forms of proven fund managers who have the requirement of a sophisticated investor certificate.
23:52Why wouldn't I want my money in the hands of experts, he asks. it seems strange that it appears to be a level of protection for investors who can't afford to take on more risk when any joe bloke and yolo all their money into some specky stock on a trading app without anyone batting an eyelid is there any way to get exposure to some of these funds this is maybe a fund manager etf question mark or am i doomed to watch from the sidelines until i either earn enough or have enough to become sophisticated cheers bryce ram i hate i hate sophisticated the label as much as I hate retail you know sophisticated just means retail is just the industry's way of calling you poor and sophisticated is the industry's way of calling you rich that's what it is right like that's how you'd explain it to a 12 year old and that'd be the most accurate way to explain it so there's nothing necessarily sophisticated about you if you're a trust fund baby right you just got a pile of cash therefore you're allowed to sort of play in that field um it's more to do with regulation than anything else and i know a few fundies and they just i only do wholesale not because they don't want access to retail but because they have to jump through a gazillion other hoops and there's a lot of costs and compliance issues that go around that so it's generally it's just like well i do i do a wholesale only because i just can't be bothered jumping through these insane regulatory hoops and they are insane it's um you Again, just not to go too much onto a tangent, we do need regulation, but I think there's been a bit of overreach in certain areas.
25:24The final point I would make is don't assume that these guys do better than you do or can do. So there's some wonderful wholesale funds out there for sophisticated investors that have done well, but that's true outside as well. There's also a majority that have underperformed and not done well, which are only accessible for sophisticated investors. So I don't have the data in front of me. I'm sure someone has done the research and looked back in time. And my guess would be the 80-20 rule in the sense that there's probably 20 % that have got some meaningful long-term track record of outperformance and the rest that don't.
26:03So, yeah, I'm not a sophisticated investor. I don't have that on my driver's license, but I don't really lose any sleep over it as well. There's a lot of opportunity out there without access to that. Yeah, I mostly agree and partly disagree significantly, actually, mate, with you on this one. And I think we've kind of talked about this a little bit before. I agree about the arbitrary allocation between the two. It was up to me, I'd actually get rid of the sophisticated investor criteria altogether and make everyone meet the retail investor criteria and be done with it. um so i i don't think the to your point i don't think the i don't think the difference serves anyone particularly well right the the i mean you talk about being the retail stuff being overregulated that's probably true to some degree but i would also say that sophisticated air quotes sophisticated investors are also easy marks to your point because a they're not necessarily actually sophisticated they're just rich and b why again to your point about the good fund managers you know say i'm just going to take advantage of the lower regulation thanks and skip through this way the other guys say you mean i can raise money without like a prospectus or having to meet asset rules or that's it if i've got something that little less you know obviously um uh ideal justified a reasonable uh maybe even you know a little bit smelly i could go to the sophisticated investors air quotes sophisticated investors in other words find some rich trust fund kids as you said and say to them hey look at this great idea i'm doing this really cool ai thing it's going to be great and i haven't got a prospectus but if you've got more than a quarter of many dollars i can i can take your money okay that sounds exciting i'll do that you know and i think to my mind mate i think we should absolutely work out which retail investor i'll use that term deliberately in this case because it is the industry term rather than your preference for it i'd sometimes just mock you this time i'm doing it deliberately um you know some of those rules may need to be to roll back or change or repealed or improved or whatever but i think the too often the sophisticated investor tag is just used as an excuse not to do the things that actually should be a reasonable estimate or expectation i should say of what rules we would like to see in place to both make sure the market works well and protect investors from you know our prospectus is a prospectus for a reason you must have these things in it why because the regulators decided these things are important for investors to know uh to say to someone just because you have a certain amount of money you no longer need these or deserve these protections i think is part of the problem i agree with you mate in terms of access um you could have invested in let me pick three berkshire hathaway i own solpats i own west farmers i don't own 20 years ago and done spectacularly well without needing to pay fund manager stupid fees to get in on the occasional thing you see reported and your point about 80 20 meters i think absolutely right you see the one fund that does what's like oh i wish i had that one you know it's like the share that went well you know could i bought that one yeah did i maybe maybe not you know uh you're always gonna you're always gonna notice the ones that go really well and say gee i wish i had that and you won't necessarily see the ones that go badly and go, oh, thank God I wasn't a sophisticated investor and lost money on that thing.
29:01So I guess I really, Bryce, would encourage you personally, anyone listening, not to actually desperately desire too badly to be a sophisticated investor. I am not. I have no desire to be. If and when I get to that level of wealth and income, I won't be applying for a sophisticated investor exemption. I just don't want to. I don't. The value of that to me is not exactly zero, but I don't think it's any necessarily better or worse than being a standard retail investor. I like the fact companies have to disclose stuff. The one thing I would say very quickly is you say, Bryce, any Joe Blow can YOLO their money into some speccy stock.
29:38That's absolutely true, except the speccy stock by virtue of being listed on the exchange has to have at least met those criteria that ASIC requires for a retail investor to invest in. So the stock can still go badly, don't get me wrong, but they had to at least do the full prospectus and everything else. You could have a speccy stock or a speccy company in a wholesale market where the same dodgy company is the same, except there's even less disclosure. So it's not so much the investor's access to the investment idea itself. It's how much information the investment idea needs to provide to the investor before you're able to invest in it.
30:12Again, just be careful what you wish for. That's probably how I'd leave that one. Any thoughts on that, mate? I can wish that I would at least have the potential to be a sophisticated investor. There are worse problems in the world, aren't there, than whether you want to do it or not. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.
30:38Mate, here's one from Ivan who says, Hi, guys. I'm so glad you have this podcast and can translate jargon into English to answer questions that are being asked. Also, ones that are slightly off topic including the old faithful about Strawman. And he gives us one of those rolling on the floor laughing emojis. So I think that's a good thing. I'm going to put that in a vote for... Laughing or crying? No, no, I put it down as a vote for my occasional question when I'm not sure about the company you work for, or the company you founded, strawman.com. He says, being a simple blue-collar worker, I'm confused.
31:11I don't have a home loan, but I do buy a lot of unleaded petrol. It's been stated many times that roughly a third of people have home loans and increasing interest rates directly affects them. I have no idea how many people can drive cars, but I'm guessing it's more than a third of people. Interest rate effects take time to flow into the community. Fuel can be increased in five minutes. If the objective is to remove money from the economy, does it make sense to use fuel and take a smaller amount from a larger number of people? I get that this is a job for politicians and they wouldn't want to do it because of the backlash, but let's face it.
31:46No one likes politicians anyway, says Ivan. This seems very simple. So what am I missing? Let the rant begin, Ivan. Thank you, Ivan. That's a very good one. I'm going to share, by the way, Ivan's auto signature on his email. He says, where you are in life may not be your fault. What you do next is. That's a bit of Sunday morning inspiration for us. He's in. It's good. Hey, what do you reckon, mate? Fuel instead of rates? Yeah, I have to really ponder that one. I mean, the really tricky thing with all of these is always the unintended consequences. Yes, exactly. And so on first hearing that, I kind of think, yeah, yeah.
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32:33But I'd really need to ponder that a little bit more. I mean, fuel is obviously not just drivers, right? It just impacts the cost of delivering goods and moving them around, just everything. So there's probably a lot to be sort of said for that. So my initial reaction is, yeah, I think there's some sense to that. It wouldn't impact the cost of credit, though, which is a very important determinant for growth. So, you know, I don't know if you would replace it. I mean, is the argument more generally we should have a more nuanced response that isn't just entirely about interest rates? Yes. Strong yes.
33:20That is definitely what we need. How the mechanics of that are designed and played out is a much, much, much more difficult question. But, yeah, at first glance, I think there's some sense to what's been proposed. Yeah, I'm going to assume I have an issue to be done as well. layers the other thing not only the cost of credit mate but it does also impact um foreign exchange rates the relative currency so if we did it but the yanks didn't for example uh it would meaningful impact and and imported inflation is a big deal so if the australian dollar was to not rise as much because the interest differential was bigger it means imports cost even more so you'd have issues with that i don't think i'd i like the idea ivan i don't think i'd use fuel ram for the reason you mentioned which is it because it's an input cost and i think for as much as possible, you want to levy the restraint of activity at the consumer level and ideally at the last purchase level.
34:20The RBA is doing what it's doing to try to restrain spending to slow economic activity. I think if you put fuel into my car and I deliver some veggies to your warehouse and you pick them up and take them to the supermarket, the supermarket gives them to you, you know, yes, the eventual price would include the impact of all those fuel bills, but it kind of becomes hidden as an ability to separate that out from overall otherwise inflation, right? If you were to increase, for example, GST, like we did in 2000 when it came in, the RBA said, well, inflation's now 10%. It wasn't that, whatever it was.
34:53But we can ignore that because we know it's just the final price GST. It's almost a one-line adjustment. If it was an input cost for a whole lot of other things, makes it much, much harder to account for the impact of the impact might be the same in dollar terms but trying to separate out real inflation from you know kind of fuel excise linked inflation in fact the change to the fuel excise actually came through the inflation numbers just recently and we saw a really big drop because it kind of went on as i increase because it went on often and came on um so you know you do get that and you got to kind of try and translate it out when it goes in the price of fruit and veg or the price of the you know the trade you come to your place to fix your fix your powerpoint because he's had to pay more to get there it's just it's just harder to separate out the other thing i would say i haven't thought it's worth is and this is by the way also true of interest rates so i'm not suggesting it's not it's any worse than interest rates um because exactly your point but there are there is also a really when you want to broaden something out it makes a whole lot of sense except you gotta think about who you're impacting right so uh the pensioner who doesn't have a home loan but also has to pay more for fuel to get to you know wherever they're going the supermarket, the buying club, the whatever, you're increasing their cost as well.
35:58Is that fairer? Because it impacts everybody, I guess. Do they have the ability to absorb it the way other people might? No. And so that's why also my issue with increasing the GST, for example, is you put everything else up 5%, the person is already on zero, who has to now cut back another 5 % of what they would otherwise buy, whether that's electricity or food or fuel or something else. I don't know that you want to apply it arbitrarily across the board. Again, it's no less arbitrary. than interest rates, but it's just the ability of some of those lower income earners and fixed income earners to absorb that stuff.
36:31You just need to think about the implications for those groups. But isn't it true as it stands there, right? Like those people are still being impacted by interest rate rise, even if they don't have a... That's kind of the point, right? It goes through all the various import costs. Producers put their prices up, retailers put their all, and then the The pensioner pays more to go out and have a game of bingo at the end of the day. So it's kind of, yeah, I mean... But curing inflation by putting up their prices even more is probably... Interest rates, again, I'm not saying rates is a better solution.
37:04I would use other things like, for example, superannuation contributions, where it impacts workers who can probably absorb it more easily than someone who's on a fixed income or a low income, for example. I just think we need to be careful about those broader stroke solutions. They feel fair because they're broad and they impact everybody. but our ability to absorb them is different based on our income levels and other life circumstances i think there's just that's that's the whether whether it's petrol or whether it's a gst or something else there's just that issue of you know your pension is already on a fixed income you're gonna pay seven percent more for everything and then you say by the way gst is up another five percent well now it's 12 percent more for everything um you know there's those groups don't necessarily have as much ability to absorb as i do for example you do andrew or or some of our other listeners on on better income so i i don't know but i think there's a there's a fairness can be seen as everyone pays the same or it impacts people on the basis of their ability to pay.
37:52I think they're both different definitions of fairness. I tend to lean towards the latter rather than the former, just because I think that's probably the more appropriate way to think about who can most fairly bear the burden when we have circumstances like this. And by the way, the people most able to absorb it are also probably the people who are spending more money in general anyway. So impacting their demand is probably more important than impacting the demand of a pensioner or someone on the dole or on a minimum wage who's just trying to buy a loaf of bread and fill the car up with some unlimited.
38:20The biggest problem really is a political one because you have to be a politician who stands up and says, like at the moment I can point to Phil Lowe and go, what a meanie. Hey, I don't think you should do that. You know, it's really, the politician who says, actually, we're going to increase taxes on this and this and we're going to put the excise up on this. just doesn't get voted in. Yeah. Reality, you know, and the opposition of whoever the opposition happens to be will absolutely spend it. You know, Party X is taxing you more and we're not going to. So it just doesn't happen. You know, it's unfortunate, but it snowballs chance in hell.
39:00Yeah. And by the way, we think that politicians made central banks independent so they could make independent decisions. That's part of it. It was also, it's like they do with their remuneration. In New South Wales, we have a thing called IPART, the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, who decide politicians wages why not because it's fair so police could say i didn't do it i didn't want more wages they said we should get more it um it doesn't doesn't work that way um we really do quick shout out mate for an article by sean kelly who's an smh columnist probably the whole nine newspapers fairfax newspapers thing i think um the article was titled philip low is cactus but truth be told his fate is a sideshow kelly does a really really good job of talking about the way that we demonize Phil Lowe and probably just choose to ignore the fact of what's actually going on and how it needs to be resolved.
39:47And he talks about, which we have brought it more nuanced tools to solve some things. It's an interesting one. I'll just read this actually. And the problems, of course, will still be there after Lowe goes. His removal, assuming it comes, will be huge news. But the change will largely be aesthetic. with political implications both good and bad for the government on one hand it won't have load to kick around anymore on the other as i previously noted it will make seem it'll make it seem as though the government's economic reign and its opportunity for economic reform is just beginning the rest of us though will be suckers if we buy into the idea lower his replacement matter as much as what the government actually does next so that was a really nice it's a great it's a great i mean she's got i said to you previously i can't i have to turn off the news at times when it's being covered.
40:32It's just so ridiculous. Yes. You know, there was something, probably a current affair, so I don't know why I should be surprised, but, you know, they were taking him to task because when he was speaking recently, he came on stage to a Justin Timberlake song. Right. Can't Stop the Feeling. It was a high, upbeat, got it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And it was like, how could you go on stage? You and every family is suffering and rah, rah. It's like, you actually see the clip. It literally was three seconds. it was just the event organizers put they did for everyone who walked on stage yeah he didn't select the song and he just he just somberly walked up the stairs and i mean just sort of like for goodness sakes right like we we are children and and we we get treated like children probably deservedly in so many ways when when that's the sort of the discourse around it and this has always been one of the issues i've sort of had with it it's just like when you when you put a person or a small group of people at the center of things and you think that's fine as long as they're good competent people it's like well it seems like a pretty big flaw where it's just like it's okay as long as they're okay and human nature and history will tell you that you're often not going to get people that that competent as well so it's just sort of like the next person could be better they could be worse i don't know i don't know and and they're they're all they're going to be making all kinds of mistakes and they're also going to be inherently unpopular you know um at various times just because no one likes to pay more but sometimes it is what what needs to be done so you know yeah you know me i go way out on the fringe and say just get rid of the central bank altogether but let's let's not rehash that conversation i'll do that you know it's so much so much extremity in one one podcast uh let's finish with a question from starsy who says greetings to the ceos of page and phillips incorporated thank you um i'm just sure it's not phillips you don't see too many joint ceos you don't normally brothers but i did or something else.
42:24Go on. I did interview a team of joint CEOs recently with Strongman, Cobram Estates. So the chefs out there will know them. They make a very fine bottle of olive oil. And they've got joint CEOs. And it's the first time I think I've come across it on the ASX. There may be other examples. I am strongly against the idea. Maybe we can be another example. I'm strongly against the idea. Well, other than you, I'm strongly against the idea. I think the box is going to drop somewhere. I see. Unless you're incredibly aligned, who makes the call? Who do you go to? You play series off against each other. You're in a relationship with one guy, not the other girl, or vice versa.
43:02I would not like to see it. I would not like to see it. To see my community is very rarely a good thing. Yeah, I can see that. I mean, there's a pretty strong delineation in... I'm using that word a lot. I can't speak to that column, by the way. I'm not criticizing them specifically. I just wouldn't do it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Not fair enough. Anyway, it's a side point. Please, please continue. Sazi says, I have two questions for the podcast. Firstly, I know you two have some strong opinions on investment properties. No. I just wanted to know what your thoughts are on short-term rentals, like Airbnb as an investment.
43:37From my research, it looks to be riskier, but could also generate more of a return. What do you reckon, mate? This is one I'm still trying to wrap my head around. Yeah. Because it's, yeah. I mean, look, on one hand, I go with the idea of you've got an asset. You should be able to do what you like with it. Yep. And if you want to go – doing short stay or Airbnbs or owning a pub or a cafe, there's a lot of romanticism to it. It's a lot of hard work. Ask anyone who does it. I really like a pub, but I'm sure it's a terrible thing. Oh, you get a bunch of lads on a bucks weekend who hire your Airbnb and then, you know, figure out what the real costs are after all of that.
44:22Security deposit or no, right? But I mean, I think when done well, there are a lot of examples of it just being much, much, much more effective. There's not someone in there all the time, but the rates that they're paying for when they are can be really attractive. True. So I kind of tend to think then, yeah, if you want to do that, then you should be able to do that. Where it gets much more complicated, of course, is that this has a real impact on the broader housing crisis scenario. And there are an insanely high amount of properties in short term sort of they're just locked out of the rental market, which is sort of exacerbating the problem.
45:04So I believe it's something that if you waved a magic wand and said you can't do Airbnb anymore or stays or any of those kind of ones, it probably does have a bit of an impact in the short term, but it doesn't structurally solve the problem anyway. So I feel as I got – this is generally the discussion around the housing crisis. They're all like little fiddling around the edges kind of stuff. So don't get me wrong. I mean, I think it would have an impact. I don't know if it would be as significant and sustained an impact as a lot of people think. but I'm really trying to make my mind up around it.
45:34I saw an article, was it Michael West just recently was just basically saying what you could do is, there's a bit of a tax loophole there for that in the sense that you can claim, I believe, 100 % of your running costs on properties that might only be leased, the least isn't the right word, but rented out through these apps for like a third of the year or something. Right, okay. So there is certain legislations legislations around that that you could probably bring more into line i mean why do i get to claim 100 of my cost as a deduction when it's only you know the two-thirds of the time i had it for my own personal use you know what i mean so there's there's there's some like a lot of things there's you might be accused of sort of fiddling around the edges there but there is some low-hanging fruit i think that could that could move it in the right direction but just to the outside of the housing crisis um um conversation the conversation the question here is you know it doesn't make sense to do and i think yeah it does in the sense that it makes sense to start a business too but starting a business is full of risk statistically most fail and it can go wrong so don't and don't don't treat it as a slam dunk i just do this and then i make more more money there there is added this is the golden rule of investing really is like more return requires you to take more yeah that's right and it's a lot of work if you are taking more risk you better hope there's a better return exactly you want to exactly that's better that's better put and so uh you know you've you've you've got more costs for the the cleaning and the upkeep the maintenance a lot of people hire property management firms or real estate agents to sort of look after it sort of for them um there is the risk where if i sign a 12-month lease but if you mean that's about as long as you can get another rent for another day.
47:25But at least you know that you've got that certainty of income. Now, it might be on paper, if I can only rent it out for X percent of the year, that it works out better. But if for whatever reason, tourism activity dries up and the rest of it, you could find. These are businesses like airlines, like hotels, like childcare centers, like nursing homes. The economics really come down to occupancy. And so what you find is that you hit this, there's this point of inflection above which you start making really good gross margins below, which you start just hemorrhaging money. And it might, it might just be that it's just sort of like, well, it turns out this Easter, I didn't get a booking.
48:09And that just throws the whole math out. You ask a lot of retailers, they make all their money in December, right? When everyone's Christmas shopping. So you just take out, You just put one bad period in there and everything kind of changes. Now, I'm not here to sort of say, oh, it's therefore really a bad idea. I'm not. I'm just saying these are the risks that you face. Extra work, extra costs, extra payoff potential, a bit extra risk. I think you've nailed it, mate. The other one I just had is the potential for regulation changes. There's been a bit of noise about, oh, they shouldn't be allowed to happen.
48:41There should be a limit on them or it should be taxed differently or something else. So any early technology, any early business idea, any early investment idea, you've got lots and lots of potential gain. You've also got much more risk because the playing field isn't laid out yet. And so just kind of getting that bit right is important. Very quick, my anecdotal experience with that is I think there's a lot of parallels with Uber. We've talked before about in the early days of Uber, it was just such a magical experience. you know it's a really it's a lot of you know the free mints and the water and the wonderful chats and why isn't this fantastic and now they're just taxis right in the same sense that it's not that special an experience it's just a different form of taxi same with airbnbs in the early days you know the host would meet you it'd be this while you're there letting you into their home it was really and now you hear plenty of horror stories too with it just they just you've now got this much more fragmented, decentralized industry where there's a lot of bad players in that space who try and whack you for fees that aren't reasonable.
49:47You turn up and it's filthy or the stove doesn't work and the rest of it. And it's another classic example of an industry emerging and running so fast so soon that it outruns any regulation and any considerations around that and it can just it just i guess maybe you could probably just paint all of this as teething problems as the industry matures and and the rest of it but um yeah it's it's and on the other side too right so for the people who are doing really great jobs and providing really great experiences they have the really bad um tenants isn't the right word but but customers as well and it just i don't know what my i don't know what my point is here but i just I think we too often look at all the upside potential and not realize just how difficult a trade it can be.
50:37So just keep that in mind. I like it. Second question is actually, he says, more equities related, which is always a nice way to finish off. He says, what are your thoughts on the current drop in retail shares? Again, we'll date stamp time. This was recorded on the 16th of june it is is trading to pe around five while dusk is less than four if your answer includes the predicted decrease in consumer spending how can we also see temple and webster trading it over 70 times decreasing consumer spending shouldn't be a long-term risk as it's more related to the macro right i think this was a really good question mate for two reasons and you can kind of uh because neither is an absolute, both are relative, right?
51:21So is five cheap or is 70 expensive? Or maybe both. And so Starzy, I think my first thought to you, I think you're right, by the way, I think retail is cheap. But I would say it's not, don't assume it is as cheap because Templar Webster is 70 times. You could say, gee, Templar Webster, we should short sell it because it's 70 times. It is as five and that's reasonable. Look how overvalued Templar Webster is. So I wouldn't use one relative measure or one, frankly, guesstimate by analysts and investors alike. of templar webster to say therefore adares is good or bad at a certain price now i own adares i don't earn dusk um i just wanted to make that point mate that you know it's don't don't look at plenty of people do this is what happened exactly what happened in the tech boom in my opinion which was they said hey uh we can i think it's the other day you know so it's actually a business of p on price styles of 20 times therefore 15 is cheap 10 is cheap well look it's only half the price of the of the the business on the price of 20 times which is all true except that if the problem is with the comparator being too expensive rather than your stock being too cheap you may find both are too expensive now this is a very big difference is a PE of 5 and a PE of 70 so very very different things but a worthwhile question my quick answer is I think retail is cheap I think if these businesses don't go broke during the downturn and they might so again I'm not suggesting they won't or not promising they won't if they don't as you say Stasi I reckon JB High Five is an even easier choice, right?
52:43It's still, I think, single-digit PE. Go out to 2028, post whatever downturn, recession, slow down whatever we have and pass the recovery and say, hang on, if I could buy it for eight times 2022 or 2023 earnings, wouldn't that give me a pretty good return? I think the answer's probably yes. It's a recommendation of ours, by the way, JB Hi-Fi, for that reason. So I'm very bullish the long-term for a basket of retail stocks. There may well be some that don't make it. Maybe they get taken out, maybe they get bought out and you're going to go, oh, I wanted all that return and they disappeared. Maybe some of them go broke.
53:15So be mindful of that. This is not a guarantee they won't go broke. But I think it's a good time to look very closely at some of those very beaten down retail stocks. Ram? Yeah, I made the comment the other day, there are absolutely some retailers out there that just deserve to come down and they'll be, well, again, if history is any guide, there'll be plenty that don't emerge the other end. Or if they do, shareholders will be so heavily diluted that it won't be great. But, I mean, Temple and Webster's really interesting case study, actually. So since it listed, shares are now down 20 % or so, close enough since they listed.
53:57Gosh, what a disaster that's been. Actually, companies come close enough to doubling its revenues and profit over that time. And so what's the disconnect there? Well, the disconnect is that there was this huge amount of expectation in the price. Now the expectation, while still perhaps elevated relative to recent earnings, isn't what it was. And it's just – and then – now, Adairs has actually had a similarly good long-term sort of history. Yeah. I'll just delay for time here while I look it up. But yeah, in 2016, okay, their dividends increased 50 % since then. Their sales on a per share basis have doubled since 2016.
54:33the yeah up and to the left right they've both done remarkably well up and to the right sorry you know what I mean so price I don't I mean I generally don't like retail just because retail is detail retail is tough it's a very very tough business to do well and just hyper cyclical and so even the business that are really good just going to go through very very sort of tough times but when so when you're looking at a temple and web star and that's going to have all of those considerations and it's on a p of 38 actually it's more than so so you want to look at depending if you're looking at forward or backwards or whatever reasonably high double digits i think and you look at one on a p of five i think what you can say all else being equal is that there is there is a much higher hill for the other one to climb because Because Adairs could go sideways for five years, but still remain profitable, continue to pay a dividend.
55:38And in more confident times, the market might deem it a PE of 10, which is still very low, right? But you've doubled your share price. It could be that Temple and Webster continue to double their earnings again, except the PE that in a future point in time is 20, which is above the average. And it's sort of like that one's going to wash off the other. And so I think what's interesting with some of these really high quality retailers is a couple of things can be true at once. They're probably going to be in for a tough time. It's probably going to suck over the next 12 months, maybe longer, maybe.
56:11Who knows, right? I don't know. But if, and this is the biggest if that you need to really be comfortable with, if they survive that without any highly dilutive raisings. and as the cycle turns and we all start opening up our wallets and purses again and buying the pillowcases and the cover you know they will recover they will go back to growth and you will see earnings rise and you'll see the market multiple increase and so you've got a really nice sort of return sort of potential in there but don't kid yourself you'll buy it it'll drop 20 the next day and it'll stay there for two years now you still might look back in the fullness of time and go what an incredible investment that was yeah i could have would have should have waited You will always do a post-mortem analysis and realize that you could have done it better.
56:57But if you've still walked away from that and gotten a nice, attractive, double-digit compound return on average over a five-year period, that's an outstanding investment. But just know that it's not going to be – and this is true of all stocks. I don't even need to quarantine this to our retailers. It's going to be a rough ride. But that's kind of the advantage that I think we have. I often say this, that the real edge you have as a private investor without the institutional imperative of having to outperform every quarter, half or years is patience. I don't think you could find a professional money manager in the country who really think that, just keep using a DES as the example, is really an existential point in its existence.
57:46And I think probably a few of them would actually say, yeah, look, if I look out 10 years, it's a bigger and better company than it is today. I'm just not going to buy it because I don't think anyone else will buy. So they start playing these other games in the meantime, if you can go beyond that. And if you can be the kind of person who is happy to look like an idiot, because you will for a long period of time, you can get great advantage in that. Because by the time the market is no longer worried about all of these things, it'll kind of be in the price. So what does Buffett and Munger say? You pay a high price for a rosy consensus.
58:21If you want, this is the dilemma, right? We all want cheap bargain prices. We all want them. You only get them when there's scary things afoot. You don't get a bargain when everything looks wonderful. So it's kind of like, well, careful what you wish for. You want a bargain? Great. You've got to have a company that's facing some significant headwinds or some huge amounts of uncertainty in the wider economy and the market. then you'll get it. But that'll be exactly the point in time in which it'll be very hard to pull the trigger. But if you can, and your fundamental reasoning is sound, I think it probably makes sense.
58:57It's a lovely way to put it, mate. And certainly being prepared for that volatility, as you say, that the market won't. And any stock, but particularly one that's out of favor, expecting the market to turn around, change its view just because you own the shares is an exercise in futility. So just keep that in mind as well. Mate, I reckon that'll do us for this particular episode. The last of our pre-records. If we have an episode next Friday, it means I've made it back. If there's no episode next Friday, well, maybe there's a search party organized. Let's find out. It'll be a one hour monologue on Bitcoin for me.
59:29There was a small but very dedicated group of people saying, gee, I hope Scott crashes somewhere out in the middle of nowhere. The rest of them, I assume, at least want me back to at least ask half decent questions. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. We won't, unless I am not back, have a Bitcoin episode next week, but we will have more from Andrew Page and myself, Scott Phillips. Until then, have a great week and Fool on. Yeah, cheers.
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