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Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money - Mailbag: incl. Leaning into the ‘nuance’ of investing (June 25, 2023)
Episode Overview In this episode of *Motley Fool Money*, hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page dive into listener questions, covering various topics related to investing. The episode emphasizes the importance of a nuanced approach to investing, encourages listeners to resist pessimism, and explores the pros and cons of Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSFs), as well as commentary on emerging market ETFs.
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Key Topics Discussed
- The Importance of Nuance in Investing
- Investing Perspective: The hosts stress the significance of challenging investment ideas rather than conforming to echo chambers. They believe that having a nuanced perspective is essential for sound investment decisions.
- Hindsight Bias: Scott reflects on advice from a previous podcast regarding dollar-cost averaging, emphasizing that despite a negative market outlook, the ASX 200 index increased by 9.5% over the subsequent year.
- Avoiding Pessimism
- Market Sentiment: Andrew notes that despite prevalent negative sentiment in financial publications, the market is only 5% away from an all-time high.
- Long-term Outlook: The discussion revolves around the danger of succumbing to short-term pessimism while neglecting the long-term upward trajectory of the market.
- Considerations on SMSFs
- SMSF Advantages & Disadvantages: The hosts discuss the benefits of SMSFs, such as control over investments and potential cost savings, against concerns of compliance, ongoing costs, and possible penalties.
- Impartial Advice: Scott highlights the importance of impartial feedback regarding SMSFs, cautioning against unnecessary complexity and promoting simplicity in investment management.
- Perspectives on Australian Banks and Miners
- Bearish Sentiment: Andrew expresses a bearish view on the banking sector, indicating concerns over cyclicality and leveraged business models.
- ETF Alternatives: A listener inquires about an ETF that excludes banks and miners, leading to a discussion about the efficacy of such investments compared to broad-market exposure.
- Emerging Markets ETFs
- Skepticism: Both hosts express skepticism towards emerging market investments due to historical performance and systemic risks associated with investing in developing economies.
- Global Exposure: They emphasize the importance of global diversification but caution against investing in emerging markets purely for the sake of perceived growth potential.
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Key Takeaways
- Investing Process Over Outcome: Focus on having a sound investment process rather than attempting to predict short-term market movements.
- Long-Term Perspective: Markets can rebound despite negative short-term sentiment, emphasizing the value of maintaining a long-term investment horizon.
- Control vs. Complexity: More control over investments (via SMSFs) does not always equate to better outcomes; simpler options can often yield better results.
- Caution with Emerging Markets: Investing in emerging markets should be approached with caution, focusing on intrinsic company value rather than the broader market potential.
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Final Thoughts The episode encapsulates the importance of maintaining a thoughtful and nuanced approach to investing amidst market fluctuations and prevailing sentiments. It encourages viewers to focus on long-term strategies, caution against overly complex solutions, and maintain a healthy skepticism towards emerging markets, particularly when seeking global diversification.
For detailed insights and more episodes, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the newsletter at [fool.com.au](https://fool.com.au).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:10Welcome to Motley Fool Money, our very special Sunday Mailbag edition. it is all of those things as it always is and ever more special because I'm joined by the straw man himself the man of straw the hay person the I don't know what else is there silage human I don't know I'm running out of things now Andrew Page how are you mate? yeah I'm pretty good how's things? I'm going with it you know sort of you know similes for straw and then man and trying to you know like join those together we'll workshop it we'll workshop it later yeah couldn't possibly work could it I just have to make fun of you maybe after the guy with no brain and there was a divorce and then we're pretty much done at that point, aren't we?
0:48Isn't that the case? Yeah, look, I mean, if I had my time - The Scarecrow. The Scarecrow, yeah, yeah. Go on. Well, look, the original, look, unnecessary segue to start it off, but the whole premise really was that I wanted somewhere where it wasn't just an echo chamber of mutually reinforcing sort of beliefs. I say it a lot, but it's just like my fundamental belief is that the best way to improve an investment idea is to challenge it. So it's sort of like here's an argument, knock it down. Now, that's not a straw man fallacy. So it's a bastardization of the term. But it was also a URL that was available.
1:30It was also easy to remember. So, you know, you kind of think, yeah, it's good. Well, once it's stuck, it's stuck, right? So it's sort of like it's what it is. The business is now turning over a billion dollars. You're driving a Tesla. Everything is good. you're right i'm just i am still curious what it is though it's uh it's not something it makes a billion dollars i tell you that much okay i've lamented to you off air if i really wanted if this was about making money i would just sell easy answers to hard problems and yeah that's how you make money in this industry providing provide here you go i'll give you a layup providing a nuanced perspective is not an easy one to market.
2:11This is one of the very first times. You didn't mention it was a private online investment club, so I'll do it for you. This is one of the very first times I've given you a heads up. Andrew's a very good sport, by the way, listeners, because generally speaking, I come to the podcast. I kind of try and find the questions I've got to deal with. I try and answer those questions as well as I possibly can. Then I throw him, he's never seen them before. So I always get a bit of an extra insight into the question before Andrew gets them. But I did mention this time the first question slash comment that we got from Nathan who messaged me on Facebook.
2:44He said, hi, Scott, I hope you're well. I've got a new game for the podcast. It's been put to bed for a while now since Kogan has come back to reality, but the new game is every time Rampage says nuance, he has to drink. And so, of course, Andrew has done us a favor and thrown it into the original opening. Well done, mate. Thank you very much for that. I do overuse that term. I do. I did reply. We all do. Apparently, I say by definition too much. And apparently, it isn't always by definition when I say by definition. So, we're all - It's good to have it pointed out because a lot of these things you're not aware of.
3:17I was very guilty, going back a long way, but I would say literally all the time. It's one of my pet hates at this point because everything, you know, I don't think people really understand. It's literally annoying. What literally means. You mean as much metaphorically? Yeah. Yeah, you know. So it's good to have these things pointed out. Okay, now I'm aware of it. Oh, so funny. Relentlessly about self-improvement here, Scott. There you go. It's all about that. I used to say fundamentally a lot. I think I still do. Fundamentally, this is the situation. it's like well we know we get it's just unnecessary verbiage which i tend to throw in but i will i will also try not to so putting them putting the mental into fundamental or maybe putting the fun into fundamental oh yeah yeah you go both maybe it's better um so look that's the uh that's the reality of the situation that we find ourselves in um now we're gonna have people just messaging us all over the joint talking about uh talking about what we say and don't say and how they wish the podcast was like 15 minutes long rather than whatever length we end up doing this today uh mate i i did say uh and it's in response to nathan said and the podcast will be shorter if he's drinking that much to which nathan says just mention bitcoin it'll go for three hours per episode three hours if you're lucky that's the first half of the episode anyway nathan love it love it mate thank you for uh thank you for the the human as always ram thank you for taking it in in the good humor uh to which it's uh it's it's intended mate um speaking of comments we actually got another one from alec uh he says hi scott ram i'm a big fan of the pod well i've only been listening since last october i've recently started listening to your older mailbag episodes as i find value in the way you answer listener questions with both yourself and andrew's differing opinions i just listened to a pod from the 12th of june 2022 and a writer asked about holding their money for 12 months instead of dollar cost averaging due to the negative outlook on the market and the high bank interest rates.
5:18Your advice was to continue to dollar cost average as you never know what the market will do. Apparently, well, here you go. He said, and stated you would come back to this date and check the results. He then says, surely you have forgotten. Yes, I had. Thank you, Alec. Thanks for reminding me of my failures in keeping with the thing. I can't remember what we said last week, let alone a year ago. Tell me about it. I did a video recently for one of our services. Did you mention a stock? Oh, I don't know. Which one did you mention? Oh, I don't know. It was like a week ago. No idea. Anyway, he says, surely you have forgotten.
5:48But I thought I would share that the ASX 200 is up 9.5 % to the time of my listening, about 12 months and 10 days from your recording date. I know this means nothing over the long term, just thought it was nice to point out. Keep up the rants. Thanks for your time educating and entertaining, Alec. And I just thought that was really useful, mate, because I'd forgotten I said it. I mean, I've not forgotten I said dollar cost average. If I didn't, you can shoot me. That's what I say all the time. But 9.5 % gain. By the way, Alex data almost certainly doesn't include dividends. So if you took average ASX ETF, you can probably add 3.5%, 4 % to that, mate, I would guess.
6:25So probably 12 % for fun. 12 % over that period. More than the average market, by the way, let alone up on the negative market sentiment that was being shared. Any thoughts on that, mate, as a piece of advice slash reminder of what we said 12 months ago? Yeah, hindsight's 20-20. That's the lesson, right? Like, you know, if I knew that the market was going to go up 13%, would have I given that advice? No, absolutely. Actually, you know what I would have done is I would have borrowed myself to the eyeballs, leveraged up, and taken that 13 % gain and turned it into much more. I mean, that's the point of dollar cost averaging.
7:06It starts from a pose of humility, which is like, I don't know. I don't know, so I'm going to average in. Or what's your alternative? I'm going to time the market. Well, you know, if people want to time the market, time the market, right? Maybe you're the one in a billion that can actually do it. Good luck, right? Yeah. To be clear, if you want to time the market, don't time the market. Andrew was being facetious there for anyone who didn't pick up the tone there. It's a very, very, very bad idea. Do you know what it is? It's like saying I should have put all my money on black because it spun up black.
7:46Why didn't I do that? Look, that person over there did it and they doubled their money and you didn't. Or you and I just had a few rounds of Russian roulette and we both walked away. It obviously wasn't a bad idea. It's how my kids rationalize. So I stand by that firmly behind those comments. Mate, can I say, don't do that. Why hurt yourself? It looks to me triumphantly. See, Dad, I told you. Yeah. Why don't you do it 100 times and then come back? To have an undeveloped front alone would be wonderful, wouldn't it? Yep. Yes, I think that's right. Although Alex's point was just, as he said, he didn't know the future either.
8:23But just a reminder that even though the market looked bleak back then, the market is still up 12 % or 13 % in the meantime, which is a reminder that trying to work on short-term sentiment or expectations. He might have been right. He might have been wrong. I think my Aravice would have been dollar-crossed average because we don't know. I guess that was just Alex's point that, you know, at that point, as with many, many, many points in the past, the Perma bears tend to lose badly, even if they have the occasional Pyrrhic victory. Yeah, I mean, yeah. This is why I often say it's more about process than outcome, I think.
8:53It's about having a process that you can have some reasonable expectation that it'll work more than 50 % of the time. Like, that's it, right? It's as simple as that. Can I say, this is the most – things are really bearish out there. Anyone who's opened up any kind of financial publication. I mean, it is – we have inverted yield curves. We have everyone calling for a recession. We have earnings. Like, actual – forget about share prices. Like, the actual earnings on average of most companies are not doing that well at the moment. I mean, we've talked extensively about how retail is just getting knocked out of the park for six, or in a bad way, right?
9:35Yes. And yet the market's like 5 % away from an all-time record high. And the US has had this incredibly strong rally. It is really, really unusual. So it goes to show you that there could have been someone a year ago who'd said, I think this is what the broader macro landscape, how it's going to evolve in this way. That's right. And therefore, I'm sort of going to take, I don't know, a short position or I'm going to position myself to take advantage of that negative outcome. Well, the negative outcome happened, and yet the share market's up. So it's sort of like you can be right and still lose a whole bunch of money on that.
10:19So you've got to come back to the humility side of things. And it rests really, I think, the fundamental tenant, I think, of investing, at least for me, and I'm sure it is the same for you, is it's not about saying when things will happen, but the general direction in which things tend to go. It tends to be a pretty good framework to sort of work from. Of course. I mean, you know, if I could be more accurate in short-term forecasts of human sentiment, which is what market prices are, I would. but I can't, so I don't. Simple as that.
10:59I, yes, I think that's right. I think it's, as you say, the process, I will say a process that you have reason to believe will be successful. You know what's funny? I really hate to sound like a politician, but you kind of, because of the way people take some of what you say, either honestly or maybe a little bit dishonestly and try and twist it and say, well, but didn't you say this? like we're buy and hold was the same right we say we're buy and hold investors i.e you buy and you hold and that's what you're supposed to do and then you sell something i think you'll buy and hold it's like well yeah that's the approach and then we go let's call it buy to hold because we're not going to always hold it okay we're gonna have to change that fine let's do that it's a bit the same with this sort of stuff where you kind of go you know it's the process it matters not the outcome doesn't the outcome matter well yes of course it matters my point is that the process and so you end up having to try and qualify and describe and and at one point you kind of think you know what i'm wasting my time here i'm i'm responding only to the the cranks and the narcs and the negative nillies and that's okay but the other hand is i think sometimes valuable because it does really give a more nuanced reply um buffett's you know the the yeah buffett's quote um you're speaking about that every time aren't you buffett's quote about you know rule number one never lose money rule number two don't forget rule number one most misquoted right ever and And that's exactly, so I think just for what it's worth, you know, keep, I will come back to some, I say all the time, which is be roughly right, not precisely wrong.
12:23Yep. You know, get the general direction right. It's kind of like there's the old arc of progress thing, right? Things improve over time. You know, and if you genuinely believe, you talk about being 5 % from an all-time high. If you genuinely believe that capitalism's topped out, if we've, if capitalism peaked in 2021, 2022, never be as good again, then you know what, you really, really should think about whether you should be investing. That's a really worthwhile thing to ask. if your view is actually no i think humans are going to keep finding ways to improve productivity technology population growth you know is the economy not going to be bigger and better in 10 15 if it is and if the as again the asx has always had world markets developed markets have always had the cream of the commercial crop listed okay so you've got the best companies in a growing economy in a more productive profitable economy you can choose to bet against that if you want you can choose to try and play funny buggers and and and guess the intermediate peaks and troughs where you can kind of go hey i reckon this thing's going to keep working as it has for the last 120 years and by the way more than that i mean we've had we've had you know stock markets for the last 120 years in the way we know them now but business enterprises have been around for as long as you know it might be the oldest profession but it's probably the second um you know the the reality if i do this thing and someone pays me for this thing and i do it well i will have a clientele and that will earn me some money.
13:41This is, it's the industrial revolution. I mean, for all of the things that, again, capitalism is also not perfect. Don't at me about that either. But the reality of the long-term prospects of the system we're in, betting against that, even over the short term trying to guess, I don't know, mate. I really, really, really, it's a mindset. I get it. It's a psychology at some level. And some people are born pessimistic and some people can only see problems. And I get it and I feel sorry for those people because for all of the stuff, We talked about some big negatives on Friday, and you and I disagreed about some of the positives and negatives, and what's good and bad.
14:13But overall, I think, you know, for all the potential drawbacks and all the systemic, you know, things we might or might not change, it's just a big call to bet against things getting better over time, isn't it? Oh, it really is. It really is. And just be careful what you – come back to what we were saying at the start there. I mean, if you really want to make a bunch of money, sell certainty. Certainty sells. Totally. Oh, absolutely. Even better confirmation bias. I think I should buy BHP. What do you think? Yes, you should buy BHP. Gee, thank you. Yeah. Do you know? But it's that lovely meme which I often reference.
14:54It's like there's two stalls. One is complicated but right, easy but wrong. And everyone's lined up on the easy but wrong kind of thing. And it is so alluring. It really is. And our industry just feeds on that, you know. So because when you sort of say, well, look, I'd like some form of financial advice, the person who goes, well, it depends, maybe nuance, et cetera, et cetera, is just a very unappealing product compared to, oh, you do this and you'll make a million dollars. Like, oh, okay, I'm going to go with that one. I'm like, well, you can opt for that if you want. Exactly. I would be cautious.
15:34Yeah. Totally. Anyway, it's just, yeah. Really good points. You know, look, the market could have been down 10%, could have been up 10%. Our advice wouldn't have changed. But I just thought it was a useful reminder that when everyone knows, I've said before, I've posted things on a Monday on, or a Friday or a Sunday on Twitter, and someone said, oh, yeah, you just wait till Tuesday, this is going to happen. And it's just like, you know, and you know the worst thing about this, and this is, you'll know this because you've been doing this as long as I have, longer than I have actually, in the industry is, the people who say things are going to happen with absolute certainty disagree with you who have no public track record no whatever they just get to be the smart alecks who say i think this is going to happen and if they're right they'll say see i told you if they're wrong you need to hear from them again yeah then someone else pops up the next time does the same thing and we're the poor well i was gonna say poor bastards we're not really lost on that stuff but you know we're the ones who you know we get stuff wrong every now and again because we do but we stay around and we stay stay public and we stay accountable and so it's like you know i told you that was going to and you said it wasn't so you're wrong i was like well okay wrong this time next time they're gone ghosting never there or went there last time it's uh it's not i i rant regularly about the the famous air quotes famous prognosticators who made forecast once about one thing and got that one thing right and you know the dr dooms and the michael burry's and the whatever else and it's like i'm not saying they're not smart people and i'm saying you shouldn't listen to them i'm just saying when you're wrong once about one big when you're right sorry once about one big thing, you were right once.
16:55And maybe for good reasons, maybe for bad reasons. By the way, there's plenty of people who've been wrong for good reasons. Steve Keen, I kind of occasionally poke fun at a little bit. He wasn't wrong about the structure of the housing market. He was just wrong about the forecast. And that's okay. And so does he deserve to be poked fun at? A little bit, yeah, because he made an outlandish forecast and he got it wrong. So that's the lesson is don't do stupid things like that. But the broader one of kind of actually, what's the opportunity here? where does the um you know what's more likely to be right over time that's where you got to focus your time yep yep and just one more thing just remember again this is a probabilistic endeavor it is all it can be if buffett's going to get it wrong all the time so are you you know and that's fine that's part that's that's just not only is it fine it's like what else do you expect right like that is you got to own that i find it very i like there's there's kinds of heuristics um you can apply when looking around the landscape of pundits in this space and it's just always a really green flag I suppose not a red flag in the sense that I love it for those people who own their mistakes and put them out there and talk about them I just think that it's just so genuine and real and the flip side is that the person who's never wrong you know it's just like that is the biggest red flag you can imagine because it's not it's obviously not true and it's definitely not true if they're trying to sort of sell you something because it's like if you're that good then you know it's like i've got the formula to turn lead into gold but i'm going to sell you the formula like why not just use it it's just it's really obvious when you when you start to sort of think about it and if you have if there's anything that's going to blow you up in this game it's it's hubris and yes yes like you know if i just run a mile if you're ever thinking about investing in some fund manager's fund and they are just cocksure and they're just like run Run a mile.
18:43Run a mile. Yeah. Hey, mate, Jason emailed us with a really interesting question. He says, hi, Scott and Ram. Maybe one for the pod. Solpats and Brickworks, two great companies with interesting cross-shareholdings in one another. I will say now I own both those companies. Jason says, I hold Solpats, but Brickworks pricked my interest as they're also invested in some property and have an amazing track record of increasing dividends. He says, I think 42 years of increases. is holding solpats and brickworks quotes de-worsification end quote using a uh lynch peter lynch uh phrase or a word i think i took that quote from buffett no it was from peter lynch but close enough but what are your thoughts on holding solpats and brickworks when they both have that cross shareholding would holding one over the other be the way to go similarly to hot to index fund or holding an lic like afic or international index funds multiple banks etc we're holding two very similar companies in a portfolio i'd be interested in your opinions keep up the fantastic work jason now jason i will say um i'm i'm also it's not very kind uh jason i'm sorry i know you've probably heard this before but uh when i say jason i even hear jimmy reese say jason jason jason for those who follow jimmy reese on facebook you'll uh you'll you'll that'll that'll ring some bells anyway uh mate what do you think solpads brickworks both either neither what is there is there some you know value in holding both or are you just kind of doing this two of the same thing where's that where's the opportunity yeah well i mean it's true to say that if you own either one of them you own both to some extent so there is a good point actually you know so it's kind of like uh there there is exposure either way it's it's the degree of exposure you want i suppose um they're both perfectly decent companies in and of their own uh right and i wouldn't blame anyone who owned both of them.
20:37So, but you're just, you're making a more concentrated bet, I suppose. And there's nothing wrong with concentrating into your best ideas. So if they're your best ideas, by all means, absolutely. And it might be that you're more interested in the investment conglomerate or you're more interested in the brick making side of things. Yeah. So you can sort of do that. But no, I, well, you own both. So maybe you're a better place to answer it. I'll give you my thoughts. So, Jason, I think what's interesting about the diversification is it was a line from Peter Lynch, the US fund manager, who did spectacularly well.
21:20He talked about mostly companies themselves. He was talking about an age when, by the way, talking about conglomerates, both Brickworks and Solpats are conglomerates to different degrees. But he was talking about businesses who said, you know what, I'm in the business of men of straw. And I'm going to go into the business of Bitcoin mining. I'm sorry, I'm being totally funny now. No, I'm in the business of shoes. I'm going to go in the business of forestry all of a sudden because I'm going to diversify my business. Now, Peter Lynch would say, hang on, unless you have business being in those other categories, unless you bring something to the table, diversifying for the sake of it can be de-worsifying.
21:57In other words, making things worse by trying to add that diversification. It's not necessarily about what you would hold in a portfolio specifically or even what the companies themselves do. It's about understanding what the kind of competitive advantages are or the core competencies of a business and sort of sticking with those. So that's that bit. In terms of the overlap, mate, here's the thing. They absolutely hold large chunks of each other. When Brickworks reports, by the way, shameless plug, I had Brickworks CEO, Lindsay Partridge, on the Good Oil podcast recently. I actually got, I reckon, more positive comments about that one than anything in the last year or year and a half.
22:36I've had some really positive comments about other ones in the past, but recently, people are like, wow, that was a really great podcast. I really enjoyed it. And again, I take no credit for it because I'm on all the podcasts. So if there was something good about that one, it was probably Lindsay Partridge was particularly good. So check that out for your own sake. When Brickworks reports, they talk about their property business, their investments business, i.e. the Solpats cross-share holding, and their brick and tile business. When I say bricks at the beginning, property tiles and bricks anyway.
23:01They're three pillars. Now, if you think about saltpats, they get some earnings from brickworks as well, from effectively the property and bricks bit, and then a whole lot of other stuff besides. So you've got to think, for those who are mathematically inclined or understand the idea of concentric circles, that is, circles are kind of interlinked. There's an overlap in, you know, put two circles together, overlap them to some degree. There's some that's in common, and some that's on the outside is only one circle, not the other. I hope that's kind of, I think people kind of get concentric circles.
23:27It's not technically a concentric circle. The mathematician in me - A Venn diagram, Venn diagram. Venn diagram is what you're after. Sorry, mate. Thank you. A Venn diagram. So that's why I'm not doing it on paper rather than - Mate, there's being right and there's being technically right. And technically right is always the more annoying - What's the point of being a pedant if you can't be pedantic sometimes? Exactly. That's what I always say. Exactly. I appreciate you picking me up on the nuance of that. That was deliberate. That was deliberate. All right. So yes, the Venn diagram, thank you, mate, where there's the overlap.
23:57So Pats and Brickworks meaningfully overlapping. Now, here's the thing about overlapping companies. I wouldn't buy four banks and think I'm diversified. But equally, if I want exposure to the banking sector, if I had two 5 % positions or four 2.5 % positions, it's kind of still the same weight into the banking sector. Now, there might be some value in picking your favorite two or choosing all four to diversify. But either way, the duplication isn't really that big a deal. because you've still got 10 % of your portfolio in banks. So with Solpats and Brickworks, yeah, I own both. I own reasonably large chunks of both because I like them both.
24:35I like the basic investment conglomerate structure of Solpats. I like the Milners, Rob Milner in particular, who's the executive chair and Todd Barlow, the CEO. These guys do a great job, have for years and decades and decades. I like them a lot. I think they're going to really look after shareholders. So I like that. I like Solpats as a Brickworks cross-sharing too, by the way. Then we look at Brickworks and think, well, hang on, Brickworks gets the Solpats business, which I already like. and I like Lindsay Partridge and what they're doing with the brick and tile business. And I also like what I think is genuinely hidden value, even though we talk about it a bit, of their property portfolio.
25:07And so I'm really happy with either or both. Honestly, the times I bought one rather than the other tend to be where there's seemingly more attractive valuations of one over the other. If they merge tomorrow, I would happily hold exactly the same dollar value in the merged entity. So it's purported to do a diversification or the banks for two and a half positions or two, five percents. I own a portion of those two combined. And if you maybe sell all of one and buy the other, I'd be happy. If they merged, I'd be happy. I don't think it's an issue. I don't think you need to worry about it. If you had a particularly strong view that the brick and tile business was much, much better and so therefore more justified to own, then great.
25:45If you'd have a reverse view, which is actually I really love, I hate the brick and tile business, but I love SOP ads, then great too. So if you have a particular preference for one, the outside of the Vendai group, go with one or the other. If the valuation drags you in one direction, go with one or the other. If you were to say, I like them both relatively equally and held them both, I think you'll do perfectly fine. They'll be both really high quality businesses. Motley Fool Money. For more, subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener.
26:18All right, mate, let's move to another question. This time from Jacob. Hi, Scott and Andrew, says Jacob I've been an avid listener to your work on the podcast I can't get enough of the straw man jokes you and me both Jacob you and me both there's two people more than that I've had at least three people writing a sentence that's true that is true I've only had one person that I don't like them Ram you know it's not exactly a representative sample but I'm going with it go with it anyway Jacob says I recently started investing for the long term and I've got a diversified portfolio of ETFs and managed funds He says in brackets, to scratch that itch.
26:55I have a comment and a question. This will be interesting. My comment, I had managed a fund, I had a managed fund, I think he says, that I could not trace due to a banking glitch. And I managed to locate it after many years, during which I presumed the money was lost. A chance conversation with a financially savvy friend told me a way to contact it using a TFN, tax file number. I was surprised the fund returned 15 % per annum over eight years. and I still hold it. It reminded me of a story I heard by Fidelity Asset Management. The story, of course, is the one in which the investor who, well, the article linked is just quoted as why the dead outperform the living.
27:40There's a famous piece of research. I know this one. You know the one? Where basically, allegedly, some research, and I don't know I've ever located the original piece of research. So I thought allegedly in there just for fun, but effectively just leaving things alone. Debt account holders are actually better than live account holders for this particular fund manager. And it was basically because they left it alone. It didn't play silly buggers, whereas people who try to fiddle too much ended up doing worse. I'm not entirely sure what's true or not. But Jacob also says, I must stress I have not seen any evidence.
28:09This story is true. I have a published peer-reviewed journal article, but hey, it makes a good story and a good lesson. I believe it is true. I believe it is true. A buy-and-hold portfolio, he says, is one you won't feel tempted to change depending on the prevailing winds, but navigate instead to your destination. In my case, retirement in 25 years. I'm looking to invest in a growth portfolio rather than dividends to minimize my tax drag. I use super to the concessional contributions cap, but my portfolio is outside super. He says, I want to have a diversified portfolio of around 40 % Australian, 40 % NASDAQ and 20 % emerging markets.
28:46I'm not naive to the risks or volatility of the portfolio, but I'm struggling with the concentration risk of Australian portfolios in banks and miners. I do hold them, he says, in managed funds and ETFs. My unfair question, says Jacob, is what are your thoughts on Australia without the banks and miners? And he mentions a ETF called the Global X Australia X Financials and Resources ETF. The code is OZXX for those who are wondering uh what do you reckon mate as an etf alternative uh compared to the australian market which does obviously have a lot of banks and miners in it yes i well um i'm pretty bearish banks i i think period of time can i ask just because from a lot of investing are you bearish over 50 years or over three years oh well that's a different question definitely okay yeah definitely I mean, look, the pace of change in our world has never been faster.
29:49I think anyone who goes out more than 10 years is really kidding themselves, really, how things are going to look. It's just so – I mean, just go back 10 years ago and look at what sort of unfolded. It's just radically accelerating. So I don't know. Who was the other fund manager who said, in the long run, we're all dead? That was John Manning-Keynes, wasn't it? Oh, that might have been Keynes, yeah. JP Morgan has always. There you go. He said the occasional smart thing. So, yeah. So, I'm hesitant because the whole point of the broad-based index is just saying, I don't know, and knowing that it's sort of all captured in the average.
30:31So, as soon as you start bringing specific outlooks to things, you kind of undermine the strategy. So, I am wary of that. But at the same time, when I sort of look at the investing landscape right now, I see a sector that is highly concentrated on a particular asset class that I see as bonkers. I see a very cyclical and highly leveraged business model. It's just the nature of banking. I wouldn't touch it. I wouldn't invest your money in it, as they say. Right. So I actually have some sympathy with that approach. and having that being said, within my super fund, I have got, is it VAS, I think? The very broad-based one, which has that exposure.
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31:14Now, I kind of sort of account for that by direct investments outside of it. But yeah, what do I say? I've got to be careful here because it's just, it's a very, help me out here. Do you know where I'm getting? because it's sort of... No, I'm a little bit surprised you did that actually because I thought you would say that... I thought you would say that you would avoid it because of the banks and miners, which you kind of partly said then went back to what was going to be my point. So I'm going to be basically stealing your own comments and repeating them back to you. The reason I asked about three years versus 50 years was exactly that reason.
31:55Was that passive versus active, right? I think over the next three years, it's entirely possible, maybe even probable, that the banking sector underperforms the ASX. And miners are hard as a group to look at because even within resources, you've got iron, oil, gold, oil, lithium, copper. I mean, if you take those five commodities, they're going to have different directions of different coal, different directions at different times, right? So you kind of go, well, where are we there? The oil prices are a 12-month low, right? So 12 months ago, we were in a different answer on oil than it is today, potentially.
32:28Not that I have a particularly strong view either way, but you know what I'm saying. So it's kind of that concept of what are resources, quotes resources, you know, it's a very difficult one. I would say, for what it's worth, that my take is yours, particularly if you've got a long-term ETF. If you're going to invest for 25 plus years to retirement, and then frankly, I keep reminding people regularly, it's not aimed at any particular listeners, including our questioner, your investment doesn't stop on the day you retire, right? It hopefully goes for 20, 30 years after that. So if you've got 25 years to retirement, you've probably got a 50-year investing horizon.
33:04And so to the extent you're looking at an investment in an ETF, trying to time, I'll buy the ETF only after banks do X or miners do Y. It's just a dangerous way to think about it. The other thing, don't forget, if you're buying an ETF is if the miners and resources companies don't do quite so well, others will grow in terms of their weighting in the ETF. So you're not just saying, I will only have the miners of their current size and the other companies of their current size and the future of that. Particularly if you're dollar cost averaging, as you invest in the ETF in three years, five years, seven years, 10 years, the proportion is going to change.
33:42And so you think about the SP5. This is a really great example. Go back, I'm going to say 15 years, mate. That might even be two. Maybe it's 20 now. 15, 20 years. The top companies in the US were GE, General Electric, General Motors, Exxon, Cisco, whatever. If you have correctly said, those businesses will be meaningfully challenged over the next 20 years, you would have been right. If you said, therefore, I'm not going to invest in that index, you would have been horribly, horribly, horribly wrong. Why? Because the smaller companies, up-and-comers, not only do they beat the big guys, they then kept growing from there.
34:15And so if you're saying, I won't invest in the ASX 300 or 200 because of the banks and miners, and yet, for example, let's assume, I don't know, pick biotech or retail or something else happens in Australia and they grow and grow and grow and grow and grow. You end up in a situation where you avoided the ETF for the right reasons, but you missed out on the returns that came from it. If you said 20 years ago, I'm not buying the S &P 500 ETF, it's got GM and GE, they're yesterday's companies. They're not going to go anywhere. And then again, you look now and out. It's easy to take hindsight bias and say, see, therefore, this might be the exception that proves the rule.
34:46But Ram, to your point, I would not exclude. So I did for a while. I invested, I still have a, I think it's in my young bloke's portfolio. He's got ASX small ordinaries, which is basically the all odds less the top 100. Now, in the event, there's actually a lot of miners in the next 200 anyway. And so the proportion is actually not that different, funnily enough. Two thirds of all companies on the ASX are materials mining companies. And it's probably, you know, they're probably 20-ish percent of the all odds, I think, but they're still like 20 % of the ASX small ordinaries anyway, because there's more of them and they're just individually still big enough combined to be a large proportion.
35:24So look, I wouldn't, Jacob. I used to, I thought I did. I bought the small ordinary specifically for that purpose and I've changed my mind. Speaking of changing our minds on things for exactly the reasons Ram said, frankly, I could be, first I could be wrong about the banks and all the miners. So do I really want to make that bet? Don't know. Even if I'm right about them and the small companies become larger and take over the ETF does well, you know now if i can still avoid them by buying the the the x financials x miners etf and go and buy that therefore i get even more upside but if i'm wrong and if i'm wrong i'm being active i'm being active i might as well pick stocks and around and around we go as you started with one last thought for me just quickly mate is the uh the etf he mentions has a management fee of 0.25 percent you can get a an asx 200 or 300 etf for about 0.04.07 percent so you have to be right but You also have to be right.
36:18And you buy the size of that management fee even to be square and then get growth on top of that. So you kind of, you know, 0.18 % is not a massive difference to make up, but it is a bogey. You're starting further behind by choice, hoping that not only you write about the difference, but you're right by enough that it offsets the fees plus something on top of that. It becomes a harder, longer part at some point. So I used to want to avoid that. I've chosen, as you just said, mate, not to do that. I have international diversification for reasons to cover that. I'd rather do it that way, frankly.
36:47If I was going to say I'm worried about the ASX exposure, I'd probably go passive in an international way rather than try and place funny buggers with the local portfolio waiting in that sense.
37:02You reminded me there of a stat. So speaking of Peter Lynch, so for those that don't know, Peter Lynch ran the Magellan Fund in the US. He ran that between 1977 and 1990. and anyone invested over that period got a 29 % average annual compound return. It's extraordinary, isn't it? He's one of the best investment managers in history, right? Like Buffett's done 20%, you know, so Buffett's done it over a much longer period, but still like that's nothing to sneeze at. But apply the rule of 72 to that. You basically doubled your money every two years, 200 years. Incredible. Extraordinary, yeah. Here's the rub.
37:41Most of the investors in the Magellan Fund lost money. Oh, wow. I didn't know that. So how do you square that circle? That's fascinating. I'll tell you how you square it because he had good years and he had bad years like every investor. He had periods where he underperformed, periods where he overperformed. And so when Magellan was doing well, everyone plowed their money into it. And then it had a bad year and everyone sold. Well, not everyone, but majority of people did. There's an investment research. I put this in the straw man newsletter recently actually. So investment research from Dalbar, they publish an annual report of investor behavior each year.
38:15and they just look at the average equity fund return versus the S &P 500. And so you can look at it. The conclusion this year was the same as it is every year. It's just like investors that are in worst enemies. But if you'd stuck in the S &P 500 over the last 30 years, you got about 9 % per annum. The average equity investor did 6%. Like how? How are you getting two-thirds of the return? Like the wind is at your back, right? Right? And again, it's everyone. We're doing the same kind of thing. So this is sort of the whole point of the index fund. So there was a point at which, I don't know, what's a recent example?
38:55It's probably no longer relevant. But Afterpay didn't exist. It did. At one point, it became the 200th largest company on the ASX and got added into the ASX 200 index and the various associated ETFs. And then it grew and grew and grew and it reweighted up as that happened. At the same time, you had – I'm trying to think of a company that hasn't done well over that period. But a bigger company that started and just did worse and worse and worse. You get that automatic rebalancing, just to reiterate your point alone. The other thing that's interesting, I think, about markets is something like – there's 260 trading days in a calendar year.
39:35And so over a 10-year period, I call it 2 ,600. Most of the gains are made over a, it's like only like 30 or 40 days in that period account for most of the gains. In other words, you take them out and the performance is radically different. And again, it all comes back to this hubris of timing of trying to get in and out and position and the rest of it. And I'm not saying you shouldn't, I mean, I'm a stock picker, right? I'm actively trying to beat the index, not by timing, but by just trying to pick the better quality companies within that. But I'm really hyper alert to the fact that it's just sort of like, given the work that's involved in that, it's a high bar to jump over when the average is actually probably going to be pretty good.
40:20I don't have to do any work and I can just get on with my life and probably focus more of my efforts on just earning a good income and saving. You've got to be careful with this. It prompted me to do a little bit of an exercise. I love a good spreadsheet, as you know, Scott. So I went on there. I've got a data subscription service. went on um and got the all lords over the last 12 months and it turns out that the all lords is up oh here we go what what our listener said up about nine percent so and all i did was i just lined up all of those days and i just removed the three best trading days not the 20 but yeah three yep and the return was radically different in fact uh uh where am i here it was it was almost twice as bad uh yeah yeah so it's it this is the problem and and he here's he's the coup de gras so the covid crash of early 2020 feels like ancient history right because of every so much which has happened since then.
41:25But that COVID crash was, it started on the market high before the COVID crash was February 20th. And it hit a bottom on March 24th. That is a period of 24 trading days. And the market lost a third of its value, like literally tens of billions wiped off the market value of companies. 34%. Now within that 24 period, we actually saw in a full third of all trading days, the market went up. In three of those trading days, the market went up by more than 4%. So the idea with timing is that, well, I'm going to get out before it goes down. And so someone up there going, yeah, but what if you take the three worst days out?
42:09Well, the return is insanely good, right? It's much, much, much, much better. But you've got to be right there because it's very counterintuitive that the best one-day gains tend to happen in bear markets because you've got extra – it makes sense when you think about it because there's extra volatility, there's extra uncertainty. So the bigger one-day – if you want to find – if you were to ask me at what periods did the best one-day gains happen on the ASX, I reckon they happened during periods of when the market was selling off because it sort of like plummets and then it bounces back up and it plummets and it bounces back up.
42:42But my point is you only have to remove a few of those and gosh, you shoot yourself in the foot massively, like just hugely. And you just get further and further behind. So I'm kind of gone well off the original sort of point here. I guess my point is you're either going to be a direct investor or you're going to take an ETF. You absolutely take a blended approach depending on what you want to do. I do, right? I just said I own some ETFs. I mean, the vast majority is indirect picks, but there's nothing wrong with doing it. But if you're going to go, I just feel as though if you're going to go the ETF approach, let it do its thing.
43:17Don't start applying either a timing lens to it or a sector selection period to it because it kind of undermines the whole, it is counterproductive, I guess. And particularly if you don't dollar cost average, right, you're going to be investing during some high periods and low periods, some uncertain periods in between. And even the high periods will be higher later on. you know it's a it's a very very important message you share man i like it a lot can i make another quick point sorry mate sorry sorry i i don't hate emerging market investing i don't like it yep don't like it don't like it too many it comes from i think a fallacy that you know uh managers will say well you want to expect you want you want to you want broader exposure sounds good right So here you've got this developing part of the world, which by definition has more upside.
44:10And so you should invest some money there. And I would say, well, history doesn't suggest that's true. In fact, a lot of these economies have been emerging for decades. I can't think of the last developing country that became a developed country, quite honestly. Right? I mean, they're all getting better. Yeah. As the world rises in prosperity, but it's not an even kind of thing. So here's the best example of all, right? So unequivocally, over the last 10 years, China is a much bigger economy, right? Today than it was in 2013. Would you agree? Yes. Like, I don't think anyone's silly enough to debate that.
44:49No. So in mid-2013, 10 years ago, I'm going to put all my money into a Chinese ETF. There's a developing market, right? Like, it's massively developing. So I just Googled one quickly. So the iShares China Large Cap ETF, the ticker code here is IZZ. Guess what the price is? You can guess where I'm going here. I can go on. Right? So 10 years ago, the unit price was$39.26. Today it's$41.82. So this is that thing of being right and wrong at the same time. Yes. My 2013 self said China is just on a tear. It's going to keep getting bigger. I'm therefore going to bet on it. Well, you were right. It did get bigger.
45:30You didn't make any money though. In fact, you lost in real terms. And why is that? A, the economy, market is not the economy. That's a really important point to make. And I think one of the things that while they have better growth potential and prospects, I unfortunately, I'll speak to anyone who comes from these or has experience, they don't have the strength of institutions that we have. They don't have the rule of law. They have generally high levels of corruption and that. So it's not like wealth isn't being created. But don't kid yourself that it's being evenly spread around. And much of it is being left over for ordinary shareholders.
46:07So I don't like emerging markets. I think if you find a really great company, and it happens to be in an emerging market, by all means do it. But too many people do it because, oh, it's an emerging market. It's good sense to invest outside of Australia just because. I think he's flawed. And I think there's a lot of good evidence to sort of suggest that I've never met anyone who's done, I mean, that doesn't mean anything though, because I don't know everyone, but I've certainly never met anyone who's done particularly well in these markets. Because, you know, most of the wealth gets siphoned off, wealth creation gets siphoned off.
46:43And if there was a scenario where I just had zero opportunity in my local market, which has much stronger institutions, much better rule of law, I have a home field advantage because I live here, speak the language. I know the market. I probably deal with a lot of the companies. I'm going overseas into these jurisdictions that are just very opaque and foreign, just conceptually to me. I just feel as though with investing, you stay within your circle of competence, play where you have an edge. What do I – I mean, the arrogance to think that I am going to understand these companies better than the locals.
47:22I just feel as though I've got no edge there. and therefore I've got no business investing in them. What about though, that you've gone from ETF investing to individual stock picking? You're talking about the image you may have. Yeah, sorry, I did. No, no, no, I'm not Christmas at all. I'm wondering whether, is that different if it's an ETF? If it's a case of, I want broad global exposure, I'll have some Australia, some developed markets, some emerging markets, roll those together, I've kind of got the world on average. That's a pretty good starting point for some people who are saying passive is passive is passive, a bit of everything.
47:52Is that meaningfully different? I think it's more about saying, well, why do you want exposure to emerging markets? If you want exposure to emerging markets because that feels as though it makes sense and someone in a suit and Martin Place said that it makes sense. I don't think it's – and they've probably got a vested interest in – they just happen to have a product that they can sell you that will scratch that itch. It sounds good. It sounds good. But these are – I mean, invest in Africa. Best of luck to you. A lot of capital has gone there to die for a whole bunch of depressing reasons. Same with South America.
48:30Same with a lot of Asia. Just, you know, I think sometimes we have to check our financial privilege. We forget the incredible good fortune we have to live in these liberal democracies with very strong rule of law. A whole bunch of problems, of course, but I know where I would prefer to be. And we find Australian companies experience this all the time. There's one in the news at the moment. I've gone blank now. is it lake or one of the lithium miners? They've got all these operations over in Africa. And, you know, market goes nuts because, hey, lithium. And, whoa, look, they've got a huge deposit.
49:03And, oh, you just got rug pulled by the government. Bye. Oh, that's not fair. Yep, that's right. That's what happened. That's what happened. And I'm not trying to be critical of the people from those countries. You know, they're human beings and beautiful people like there is a bit, but their institutions are crap, right? They just are. and I'm not going to invest in those places where I just can't take for granted what I can more reasonably take for granted here. That's just me. That's just me. Yeah, I'm less sure that only looking at the negatives or risks is the only way to do it. I don't have any emerging market exposure.
49:43I don't think I need it necessarily. I've got the VGS, the Vanguard Global ETF, which is Develop World X Australia. That's good enough for me. sorry i do do i still have i should know i had the asian tigers etf for a while i think i might still have it let me double check before i get myself in trouble um how's this for live research as we go login login login no i don't have it there do i have it there i think i know wouldn't yes i do i still have a few units of the asian tigers etf which is emerging-ish markets um hasn't done out of interest i'm not i'm not i don't i don't i don't know i'm just generally thank you very much genuinely curious 39.7 % since I bought the ETF units what was that?
50:24I don't know actually I'll cut you some slack if it was you know short term but it was over 10 years it kind of probably two or three years ago probably max okay sometime in the last couple of years okay and for me it was purely a diversification move which is like hey I'll buy some the broad thinking was this is partly active and partly passive and again to the kind of comment we've been having or the conversation we've been having on going uh i i think it's very likely that in the next 20 years the top three or four of the top 10 companies in the world are probably asian and probably chinese just because the sheer development of that market and the size of the population and the the realities of the compound and think about alibaba's and the jd.com's and the others um and so it's just a case of you know to the extent that that might be a market i should be exposed to i bought some units the etf now it's 1.26 percent of my super fund which is probably you know whatever percent of the total so it's a tiny it's a tiny holding um but it was on that basis that it just made some sense for me to have some exposure to that market as a as a quasi passive part of my superannuation portfolio i have some nasdaq in there i have some vanguard small lords and some global so there you go so kind of you know as a as a as a as a box set I've got Small Lords, Global, NASDAQ, and Asian Tigers.
51:45They are the only ETFs I have in my super fund. And it was just for that kind of broad global exposure. I didn't have that Asian exposure to any of my other ETFs. So I thought, yeah, that sounds like something I could probably, you know, should have some exposure to. I have no idea where they go next. Maybe it was always a terrible idea. Maybe it was always a fine idea. Chinese companies, Alibaba in particular, was whacked by the Chinese government. Speaking of sovereign risk. So surprise, surprise. Yes. I mean, Alibaba has gone nowhere in 10 years, right? Yeah. Yeah. So that's part of the, well, it hasn't been flat, of course.
52:17It is now, you know, where it was, but very volatile in the meantime. Anyway, yeah, so I have a little bit. I don't think you need exposure to emerging markets for the sake of it. I do think global diversification makes sense if you're going with a passive ETF strategy. I think only investing in Australia is a very concentrated way to think about living your life. if your job, your house, your car and your portfolio are all in Australia only. You're just taking geographic risk you don't need to take. Not that I'm anti or worried about Australia at all, but looking back and going, something happened.
52:49Was it smart not to diversify or nothing happened? Did it cost you much to diversify? If you weigh up the outcomes of those two questions, I think it makes a lot of sense to have some global exposure. Do you need emerging markets? Probably not. Yeah, I don't. Look, it's just the opinion of one ill-informed person who's just shooting from the hip here. But I just, I think that you always need some degree of diversification, but I think it really does become de-versification when it is purely for the sake of it. It's like we often criticize a lot of pundits who'll say, you should own a bit of gold and you should own a bit of financials and you should own a bit of retail.
53:31And it's like, well, why? Again, back to my original point, I own the whole damn lot. I just sit back and go for it. Or I try and don't forget, your returns can be made significantly better, not by identifying the best performers, but just by actively removing what's likely in your view to be the best performers. Yeah, fair. Look at your own portfolio, not you specifically, like anyone listening. Take out the one worst performer over the last five years. Just the one and see what changes. you know it's like it's mass and this is really i think too many of us we all focus on oh what's the next you know after pay or whatever it happens after pay is a bad example these days um yeah you know um yeah which was kind of the point right but but but it's just like i i try to focus as much as i can as well as like well what's the one thing that i can what's the the tumor i can excise here from my portfolio rather than the supplement that i can add horrible analogy but you get where I'm coming from I do exactly know exactly what's coming from man let's finish off with a question from Adam who says hi guys I'm brand new to this podcast machine thingy and I can't work out what straw man is is there someone you can ask and get a rant no there's not no there's no one to ask if I asked you what strawman.com is you couldn't tell me you've already you've done your shtick for this week we've done it and yet Adam would like to know and you're going to deny him.
55:00Go to strongman.com, figure it out, Adam. You're a smart guy. You'll work it out. In case you haven't worked it out, I've been listening to you for years and thanks again for all your help. I know you can't give advice and I'm trying to get all the info to make my own decision. My question relates to an SMSF and when to start one. I've always been worried about starting one due to compliance regulations and penalties if breached. There also seems to be considerable ongoing cost with audits and accounting fees. I saw that one provider has just started a new complete SMSF service for$990 per year, including setup costs, but not including brokerage fees or foreign exchange.
55:34What have you heard about one-stop SMSF shops? Are they trustworthy? Couldn't they just jack up the fee later on? I already have Australian Super Members Direct with four ETF broad-based index funds and would do the same in an SMSF. When I ask an advisor, anyone, sorry, anyone who does an SMSF will say, yes, do one. He says in brackets, every barber wants to cut my hair sorry scott yeah thank you adam i would really appreciate some impartial feedback thanks and fool on adam go on mate i don't know the particular product i think there is a place for uh companies that can enhance the user experience and just making it easier straightforward doing it at a reasonable fee definitely right i'm no problem with that anyone who provides a service of genuine value deserves compensation for that in fact you know that's that's that's totally cool but it's such a broad question because within that you've got a whole bunch of shysters when i say shysters they're not doing anything illegal but they've they're gouging you know they've been they're charging prices that are well above what what is reasonable in terms of what they are doing.
56:47So it's hard to speak specifically. I use Australian super for whatever it's worth. And I even say that without having done an exhaustive search and pro-con, you know, competitor analysis. It was just like, I think it was when I was at the full with you. You know, I was like, that's who we went. Sort of stuck with them. They've worked out pretty well. It's a very, very low touch affair. So I don't end up copying much costs at all because it's a very inactive kind of segment. um but you do see a lot of things that are out there lots of bells and whistles and the rest of it i think the more of you actually for super i don't think you want necessarily two feature richer set because each each feature is going to be associated with a cost yeah correct correct and you just i mean you really less is more when it comes to these these kinds of things yeah you know do i need to um install a home gym and do all this kind of stuff to to get fit and hire a personal trainer to come around for three hours every day or i could or just you know maybe cut back a bit on the ice cream and go for a walk every now and again is it like there's there is there is there is sometimes the added complexity uh is is a negative because when there's a button and a lever to pull and push i'll probably do that and i'll probably be my own worst enemy not not to be critical of and just just we are and we've this we've touched on this earlier on in the pod it's just really for this kind of stuff just focus on what you can put into it let compounding do its thing stay broad stay basic you'll do pretty well could have you done better yeah obviously you know you could have bought bitcoin at a dollar you know one point in time does that mean that the smart investor put all their money into that in 2011 or whenever it was like no i guess it's crazy so i just i i am a little cynical on on a lot of the products that out there yeah um yes Warren Buffett talks a lot about the helpers in our industry by the way and I help us as well and so we're charging a fee for our respective products and you choose whether or not that's worth your money so you know we're not squeaky clean or wider than white here we're not doing it for love um there's bills to pay and you know business to build but I share his thought Adam you're so let me go DTS first I have an SMSF I wanted to have more control of my investments timing it is more controllable easier you're closer to the product you're closer to the investments you make the trades yourself all that kind of stuff is nice to have I got to say mate if I was trading stuff as well through Australian Super Members direct option it'd be cheaper and a whole lot less hassle just to do that so honestly I'm not a million miles away from going back to an industry super fund with a direct investment option because I'm like, I'm spending the money.
59:29I'm taking the time. There are other penalties. If I get it wrong, there's obligations, paperwork. I'm like, well, what am I getting extra here? And there is a real, let's be really honest with people listening right now. There's a real psychological desire to have control over things, right? Control is a really human desire. Control over our lives, control over our money, control over this. The whole area of super, it's your money stuff you know all this stuff is all about you know you control it you're better than this there's more bloody trading as we've seen it recently i'm not going to name the company um you know there's new ads on tv with the you know own the trading you learn to trade and then master the markets and all this kind of rubbish and it's all about playing to the ego of i want to take control because i can do this because it's mine so whatever whatever um we don't even want control when it comes to fixing the car or the wiring or by the way mate just quick heads up for our listeners while uh just for fun while we're recording this podcast got a message uh from someone up in the house saying that the guy digging outside has hit a water main so that's what i'm gonna deal with when i produce this podcast which is exciting uh but i'm not digging my own holes right well maybe i should have because i got hit the water main but you know what i'm saying um so look you know there's times when you should absolutely take control of your own stuff you should be responsible for it for sure but do you need an smsf to do that for most people it's actually no you know like money full advisors individual people are individual companies but we don't tell you you need to have an SMSF to do it.
1:00:47If a member's direct option or something similar does it for you, knock yourself out. Don't make life more complex than it needs to be, right? Make it, as you said, just make it simple. You know, the SMSF people will make their money trying to tell you to take control and play up to your ego and all that kind of stuff and you know, that's their bread and butter, right? Is it useful sometimes? Yeah, sure. Is it useful all the time? No. Should as many people have SMSFs? No. There should be fewer of them, frankly. And honestly, The ability to take a superannuation fund, which is in trust for my retirement, and screw it up by investing badly, I actually think there's a policy failing because honestly, people say, well, that's my man, I can do what I want with it.
1:01:26It's like, yeah, but you're going to still want the pension if you make a mess of this. You know, it's sort of a moral hazard, right? It's like, heads I went to go on the pension. That sounds okay. Why would I not take the risk? It's a very, very difficult combination to try and get your head around. The whole thing should be simple. I mean, super is a wonderful concept. Yes. You know, and then the finance industry gets its dirty little fingers involved. Exactly. Milks that baby dry. Totally. It just, I mean. Yeah. And it's such a non-productive component of our economy. Correct. You know, it's sort of like really, this is not strictly true, but I'd be very tempted if I was king of Australia to say with super, you've got one choice.
1:02:11It's a broad-based. Yes. Yes. equity, it just follows the market. You know, that's the prosperity essentially of our country. That's it. That's all you can do, you know. You don't need all of these products and advisors and accountants and everything sort of around it. It's basically become a tax haven for rich people. Unfortunately, it's been bastardized beyond all recognition. I mean, the amount of the literally billions of dollars that go into sort of administering something that really shouldn't be that hard. I'd probably actually tie it to our sovereign wealth fund, where you're basically, you know, that's it.
1:02:45It's one and the same. That's the default. That's it. You know, you don't have to invest in it any more than what's mandated above that. But that's the go, right? And it's a bet. It's a bet on our shared future prosperity. And I think it makes a lot more sense than, you know, having four negatively geared properties inside of it and, you know, squirreling away$8 million. You know, it's just, it's kind of sickening, really. It is. Mate, with that, I'm going to go and try and fix my watermate problem. I'm sorry, mate. I'm so sorry to hear that. How good is that? And then I'm going to go on holidays.
1:03:21But we have got plenty of podcasts backed up for you. We will be publishing, good Lord willing, The Creaks Don't Rise, every Friday and Sunday over the next four weeks. And then you and I, Ram, will be back to record some fresh episodes. By the way, I want to say fresh. Everything's fresh. It's all new. We've pre-recorded some so we can give you some podcasty goodness from the podcast machine. Pre-recorded freshness. pre-recorded it's still fresh fresh at the time of production yes first time around it's being kept fresh in the freezer and being bought out especially nice for the first time ever anyway I'm going to holidays enjoy if you want to follow me on Twitter please feel free at TMF Scott P or on Facebook at Scott Phillips Money you'll get some holiday photos in the next few weeks you can follow Ram on Twitter at Sage underscore Simeon or at Strawman Invest until next time Fool on cheers The Motley Fool and people appearing in this program may have positions in the companies mentioned.
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From the publisher
– Leaning into the ‘nuance’ of investing
– Why you shouldn’t give in to pessimism
– What about avoiding banks and miners?
– The Pros and Cons of SMSFs
– Emerging Markets ETFs?
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